well it can't hurt, we set the bar pretty low this year to beat.
I've said it before, I'm going to say it again:
Purdue had a REALLY bad tournament, the rest of the league was about what you would expect.
We had the following seeds:
- #1 Purdue - lost in first round. 0-1
- #4 Indiana - lost in second round. 1-1
- #7 Michigan State - lost in S16. 2-1
- #7 Northwestern - lost in second round. 1-1
- #8 Maryland - lost in second round. 1-1
- #8 Iowa - lost in first round. 0-1
- #9 Illinois - lost in first round. 0-1
- #10 Penn state - lost in second round. 1-1
- Overall 6-8
That isn't great but other than Purdue's loss, all of the losses are pretty much par for the course:
- #4 Indiana lost a 4/5 game that is roughly a 50/50 game. Only 47% of #4 seeds reach the S16, Indiana didn't, #4's usually don't.
- #7 Michigan State did MUCH better than expected. They won a 7/10 game, knocked off a #2, and lost to a #3 in the S16. Less than 7% of #7 seeds make the E8 and, for that matter, less than one-in-five make the S16 as MSU did.
- #7 Northwestern won a 7/10 game despite being effectively the road team in Sacramento then lost to #2 UCLA also in Sacramento.
- #8 Maryland won an 8/9 game then lost to a #1. #8's only make the S16 about 10% of the time because they have to play #1's in the second round and they usually lose, as Maryland did.
- #8 Iowa lost an 8/9 game. Those are about 50/50.
- #9 Illinois lost an 8/9 game. Those are about 50/50.
- #10 Penn State knocked off #7 aTm and lost to #2 Texas in Des Moines. That is frankly better than expected for a #10 seed.
Our problem wasn't that we underperformed IN the tournament, it was that we had a SLEW of mediocre teams so we ended up with six #7-#10 seeds. Those seeds have between a 39% and a 61% chance of winning their first game but only between a 5.26% and a 19.08% chance of getting to the S16 because they get stuck playing some of the best teams in the country in the second round.
#7 to #10 seeds historically as compared to our teams in 2023:
- #7's win their first round game 61.18% of the time, 93-59 all-time.
- #8's win their first round game 48.03% of the time, 73-79 all-time.
- #9's win their first round game 51.97% of the time, 79-73 all-time.
- #10's win their first round game 38.82% of the time, 59-93 all-time.
The six teams that we had in this range "should" have won 3.09 first round games and our six won four so that is better than the average for those seeds.
- #7's make the S16 19.08% of the time, 29 total.
- #8's make the S16 10.53% of the time, 16 total.
- #9's make the S16 5.26% of the time, 8 total.
- #10's make the S16 15.79% of the time, 24 total.
The six teams that we had in this range "should" have put 0.8 in the S16 and our six got one so that is better than average as well.
I know I'm beating a dead horse here, but I think this is important. There is a significant difference between "the league sucked" and "Purdue had a REALLY bad day". If the league sucked we'd have lost all of those coin-flip type 7/10 and 8/9 games. We didn't, our league went 4-2 in those.
The seeds that we had, on average, would get 4.86 teams into the second round. Our teams actually managed to beat that (5) even AFTER Purdue lost. They were only able to do that because the other seven overachieved substantially.
We hit a wall in the second round but that isn't anything unusual and it didn't help that we got zero breaks:
- #4 Indiana drew a #5. Historically there is a roughly one-in-three chance of drawing a #12 there but Indiana didn't.
- #7 Michigan State drew a #2.
- #7 Northwestern drew a #2.
- #8 Maryland drew a #1.
- #10 Penn State drew a #2.
Then, in the S16 our only surviving team drew the highest possible seed for their opponent. #7 Michigan State lost to #3 KSU after already taking out #2 Marquette.
If you look through the above closely you'll notice something: None of our teams got the benefit of a busted bracket. Every singe NCAA Game that the B1G participated in was against the highest possible seed.
