Not a dig at all, I think this has merit. This team won, but didn't dominate people like you would have expected given their #1 ranking for a time. If Edey comes back next year, we make more 3's and limit turnovers, I love our chances.
This theory is kinda proven incorrect by the example I'm going to use but I've always thought, as a fan, that the teams with the best chance in March are the teams that have multiple ways to win.
My favorite Ohio State team in my memory was not the 2007 National runner up, or any of the several other F4 teams that I've experienced as a fan. The Ohio State team that I think would have the best chance to win it all if you replayed the tournament from their year was the 2011 team.
They lost in the S16 but finished 34-3 overall. Going into the Tournament that year I really thought that would be "our" year because they could hurt you from everywhere. If you look at ESPN's season schedule for a team it shows by columns:
- Date
- Opponent
- W/L and score
- Cumulative record and conference record after that game
- High scorer for the team you are looking at.
If you go look at 2023 Purdue, that fifth column is almost always Edey. He is REALLY good, but Purdue just didn't have much behind him. For that reason, I didn't think that Purdue had a very serious shot at the NC this year. I, of course, thought they'd get beyond the first game and probably out of the first weekend but that was about all I expected.
If you look at that 2011 Ohio State team, just in their last six games (3 BTT, 3 NCAA Tournament) they had four different leading scorers:
- Sullinger in the BTT opening win over NU and the NCAA loss to KY
- Buford in the BTTCG win over PSU and the NCAA opener over UTSA
- Diebler in the BTT semi-final win over M
- Lighty in the NCAA second-round win over Geroge Mason
That wasn't unusual for that team. If you just look down that column it is pretty much a different leading scorer each night including at least once each by:
- Sullinger
- Buford
- Diebler
- Lighty
- Thomas
That presented opponents with basically a "pick-your-poison" situation:
- Clamp down inside on Sullinger, get lit up from behind the arc by Diebler.
- Clamp down inside on Sullinger and double Diebler, get lit up by Buford.
- Somehow keep Sullinger, Diebler, and Buford in check, get lit up by Thomas.
- Somehow keep Sullinger, Diebler, Buford, and Thomas in check, get lit up by Lighty.
Even though they "only" made it to the S16, I think that is the closest Ohio State has been to an NC in my memory. The 2007 team made it to the NCG but I think you'd have to play that CG a lot of times before Ohio State managed to take one from Florida. They also made a couple other F4's in my memory but I felt like those teams overachieved to get there and probably wouldn't actually win no matter how many times you replayed the Tournament. Instead, in a replay they probably wouldn't make the final weekend. The 1992 #1 seed that lost to a EXTREMELY highly paid Michigan team in the E8 is possibly the next best.
The 2011 team:
The two regular season losses were both in mid-February, on the road, and they were against the next two best teams in the league that year (Wisconsin and Purdue). The Wisconsin loss was by four points to a Wisconsin team ranked #13 in the Kohl Center. The Purdue loss wasn't as close, 13 points, but in tOSU's defense they obliterated Purdue in Columbus that year, 87-64 and Purdue was also in the top-13 both times that Ohio State played them.
The Kentucky loss was just one of those days. Buford had an incredibly cold shooting night, Sullinger shot 50% but that isn't all that good for a guy who mostly shoots layups and dunks, Craft and Thomas were a combined 0-6 from the floor for two points in a combined 39 minutes. Lighty and Diebler were "ok" but not great. In spite of playing THAT poorly, at the buzzer the Buckeyes had a shot in the air that would have won the game had it gone in. It didn't and that was that.
They had played phenomenally well in their first two NCAA games with ~30 point wins over UTSA and GMU. In retrospect, I sure wish they'd had their "off night" against one of those two. They'd have won anyway. Oh well.
None of the above is to take anything away from Kentucky. The Wildcats were very good that year. I thought they were underseeded at #4 and they made the F4. Certainly their defensive efforts contributed to Ohio State's difficulties.
Relative to Purdue, all that is to say that I agree with you, if Painter can get better production around his Big Man, I think they can go far. At one point earlier this season when Ohio State was playing like crap and Purdue was the run-away leader,
@ELA said that if you took Edey away from Purdue, he'd pick Ohio State over Purdue comfortably. I think his point was correct. Purdue this year was Edey and . . . Well not much. You generally aren't getting far in the Tournament that way because eventually you'll run into someone who can take that away and you need to have a "Plan B".
