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Topic: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #70 on: April 11, 2023, 06:22:39 PM »
well it can't hurt, we set the bar pretty low this year to beat.
I've said it before, I'm going to say it again:
Purdue had a REALLY bad tournament, the rest of the league was about what you would expect.  

We had the following seeds:
  • #1 Purdue - lost in first round. 0-1 
  • #4 Indiana - lost in second round. 1-1 
  • #7 Michigan State - lost in S16.  2-1
  • #7 Northwestern - lost in second round.  1-1
  • #8 Maryland - lost in second round.  1-1
  • #8 Iowa - lost in first round.  0-1
  • #9 Illinois - lost in first round.  0-1
  • #10 Penn state - lost in second round.  1-1
  • Overall 6-8

That isn't great but other than Purdue's loss, all of the losses are pretty much par for the course:
  • #4 Indiana lost a 4/5 game that is roughly a 50/50 game.  Only 47% of #4 seeds reach the S16, Indiana didn't, #4's usually don't.  
  • #7 Michigan State did MUCH better than expected.  They won a 7/10 game, knocked off a #2, and lost to a #3 in the S16.  Less than 7% of #7 seeds make the E8 and, for that matter, less than one-in-five make the S16 as MSU did.  
  • #7 Northwestern won a 7/10 game despite being effectively the road team in Sacramento then lost to #2 UCLA also in Sacramento.  
  • #8 Maryland won an 8/9 game then lost to a #1.  #8's only make the S16 about 10% of the time because they have to play #1's in the second round and they usually lose, as Maryland did.  
  • #8 Iowa lost an 8/9 game.  Those are about 50/50.  
  • #9 Illinois lost an 8/9 game.  Those are about 50/50.  
  • #10 Penn State knocked off #7 aTm and lost to #2 Texas in Des Moines.  That is frankly better than expected for a #10 seed.  
Our problem wasn't that we underperformed IN the tournament, it was that we had a SLEW of mediocre teams so we ended up with six #7-#10 seeds.  Those seeds have between a 39% and a 61% chance of winning their first game but only between a 5.26% and a 19.08% chance of getting to the S16 because they get stuck playing some of the best teams in the country in the second round.  

#7 to #10 seeds historically as compared to our teams in 2023:
  • #7's win their first round game 61.18% of the time, 93-59 all-time.  
  • #8's win their first round game 48.03% of the time, 73-79 all-time.  
  • #9's win their first round game 51.97% of the time, 79-73 all-time.  
  • #10's win their first round game 38.82% of the time, 59-93 all-time.  
The six teams that we had in this range "should" have won 3.09 first round games and our six won four so that is better than the average for those seeds.  

  • #7's make the S16 19.08% of the time, 29 total.  
  • #8's make the S16 10.53% of the time, 16 total.  
  • #9's make the S16 5.26% of the time, 8 total.  
  • #10's make the S16 15.79% of the time, 24 total.  
The six teams that we had in this range "should" have put 0.8 in the S16 and our six got one so that is better than average as well.  


I know I'm beating a dead horse here, but I think this is important.  There is a significant difference between "the league sucked" and "Purdue had a REALLY bad day".  If the league sucked we'd have lost all of those coin-flip type 7/10 and 8/9 games.  We didn't, our league went 4-2 in those.  

The seeds that we had, on average, would get 4.86 teams into the second round.  Our teams actually managed to beat that (5) even AFTER Purdue lost.  They were only able to do that because the other seven overachieved substantially.  

We hit a wall in the second round but that isn't anything unusual and it didn't help that we got zero breaks:
  • #4 Indiana drew a #5.  Historically there is a roughly one-in-three chance of drawing a #12 there but Indiana didn't.  
  • #7 Michigan State drew a #2.  
  • #7 Northwestern drew a #2.  
  • #8 Maryland drew a #1.  
  • #10 Penn State drew a #2.  
Then, in the S16 our only surviving team drew the highest possible seed for their opponent.  #7 Michigan State lost to #3 KSU after already taking out #2 Marquette.  

If you look through the above closely you'll notice something:  None of our teams got the benefit of a busted bracket.  Every singe NCAA Game that the B1G participated in was against the highest possible seed.  


ELA

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #71 on: April 13, 2023, 10:01:28 PM »

bayareabadger

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #72 on: April 13, 2023, 10:28:32 PM »
I don't know who this is, but here he is


https://twitter.com/JonRothstein/status/1646665878279270401?t=3jZw1oTtMdiqDMYLY2nsDA&s=19
Athletic wing type. Pretty good shooter, decent creator. Averaged 8.8 points in 21.1 MPG as a true freshman. 

At the very least, he gives UW a tall wing type with a pair of returning shooting guard types. There's a guess he might be athletic enough to dabble at the 4 in some lineups. I still think they add a big, but at the very least, they add 2/3s of a bench to a team that returned a full starting lineup and a defensively-reliable-if-offensively-poor walk-on combo forward. 

One space to watch will be front court. They are adding a thick, 6-8 big whose mobility I'm not sure about and a really nice center who can shoot, but is currently listed at either 190 or 210. I'd love if one could step into the rotation, but considering this team lacked a burley reserve behind Wahl and Crowl, if Gard wants to get one, wouldn't say no. 

ELA

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FearlessF

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #74 on: April 15, 2023, 11:50:14 AM »
It has been a busy week in Nebrasketball with the transfers coming into the program. However, the big fish came on Friday when four start recruit Nick Janowski chose to play his collegiate career with the Cornhuskers.

The new recruit is the number two player in the state of Wisconsin, the sixteenth best shooting guard in the nation, and the eightieth best player overall. While Fred has done a decent job assembling the future of the team, he has not had this high of a player commit in quite some time. Especially stealing one from the backyard of the Badgers who usually lock off their state to outside teams.

Nick is a 6’3” shooting guard from Pewaukee, Wisconsin. This past season he averaged 23.7 points and 6.6 rebounds, per game. All while averaging 55% from the floor and 41% from beyond the arch. Huge numbers for anyone in high school.


He chose Nebraska over the likes of Wisconsin, Marquette, Iowa State, and Iowa. He is Nebraska’s first commit in the 2024 recruiting class.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

ELA

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #75 on: April 18, 2023, 02:57:41 PM »
Michigan's top recruit asked to be released from his NLI.  Rumored for a while

847badgerfan

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #76 on: April 18, 2023, 03:34:51 PM »
It has been a busy week in Nebrasketball with the transfers coming into the program. However, the big fish came on Friday when four start recruit Nick Janowski chose to play his collegiate career with the Cornhuskers.

The new recruit is the number two player in the state of Wisconsin, the sixteenth best shooting guard in the nation, and the eightieth best player overall. While Fred has done a decent job assembling the future of the team, he has not had this high of a player commit in quite some time. Especially stealing one from the backyard of the Badgers who usually lock off their state to outside teams.

Nick is a 6’3” shooting guard from Pewaukee, Wisconsin. This past season he averaged 23.7 points and 6.6 rebounds, per game. All while averaging 55% from the floor and 41% from beyond the arch. Huge numbers for anyone in high school.


He chose Nebraska over the likes of Wisconsin, Marquette, Iowa State, and Iowa. He is Nebraska’s first commit in the 2024 recruiting class.
Wisconsin pulled his offer because they are waiting on bigger fish. Hope that does not turn into a mistake.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

847badgerfan

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #77 on: April 18, 2023, 03:35:13 PM »
Michigan's top recruit asked to be released from his NLI.  Rumored for a while
Who is this?
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

ELA

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #78 on: April 18, 2023, 09:56:18 PM »
Who is this?
Papa Kante.

Leaves them with one recruit, and three transfers.  One was a high volume, low efficiency scorer at UNC, who apparently slept with his fellow co-captains gf.  One was a bench player at Seton Hall.  One was a bench player at Alabama, who is now on his third school in three years.

Once again, Michigan majorly fumbled the bag in not firing Juwan for cause, and bringing back Beilein, who still lives in Ann Arbor

grillrat

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #79 on: April 19, 2023, 11:54:50 AM »
Papa Kante.

Leaves them with one recruit, and three transfers.  One was a high volume, low efficiency scorer at UNC, who apparently slept with his fellow co-captains gf.  One was a bench player at Seton Hall.  One was a bench player at Alabama, who is now on his third school in three years.

Once again, Michigan majorly fumbled the bag in not firing Juwan for cause, and bringing back Beilein, who still lives in Ann Arbor
I saw on the national Rivals board (rumor:  take with a grain of salt) that Kante was having issues getting admitted to Michigan.  Something to do with the English courses (and the fact that English is not his primary language).

bayareabadger

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #80 on: April 19, 2023, 01:44:13 PM »
Wisconsin pulled his offer because they are waiting on bigger fish. Hope that does not turn into a mistake.
They project to have a ton of seasoned returners his first year. I can see why he’d pick Neb. 

hopefully they land the PG and it works out. 

FearlessF

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #81 on: April 19, 2023, 02:42:35 PM »
he's a big fish at UNL

and still gets to wear RED
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

ELA

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #82 on: April 19, 2023, 11:13:40 PM »
Remember when this two man class was ranked #49 by the 247 composite?


https://twitter.com/CBKReport/status/1648869812901117953?t=PoZ4QUZXTtLkrAxIURUXmA&s=19

847badgerfan

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #83 on: April 20, 2023, 12:41:12 PM »
Wyoming transfer Noah Reynolds backed out of his Wisconsin commitment. He had already signed but was apparently allowed out of his NLI.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

 

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