2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread

[bayareabadger]

The lack of coherence from this Buckeyes team is not something I expected. Not enough guard play, everything through a couple of power posts and Key. Defense that is just not very good. (Did work on the glass, though)

Not sure how to feel about the UW team. They need a couple dig-down performances, but they're a 5-4 finish from going dancing. Interested to see how it goes. Point guard played it right tonight. If he can hit some tough ones, that's a big swing. 

[847badgerfan]

Color me shocked.

[MaximumSam]

The lack of coherence from this Buckeyes team is not something I expected. Not enough guard play, everything through a couple of power posts and Key. Defense that is just not very good. (Did work on the glass, though)

Not sure how to feel about the UW team. They need a couple dig-down performances, but they're a 5-4 finish from going dancing. Interested to see how it goes. Point guard played it right tonight. If he can hit some tough ones, that's a big swing.

They are a mess. Honestly, I think the problem is Sensabaugh. He's amazingly efficient as a freshman scorer, but he never passes. And now the team never passes. 

[boilerbanger]

I plan to drop Ohio State into the blank tier between Nebraska and Minnesota.

Their two best games are the win over Rutgers and the blowout win in Evanston but those were on December 8 and January 1. Since then they are 1-8 including a loss to Nebraska and a home loss to Minnesota. At this point they are horrible.

Thoughts?

I agree with this

[847badgerfan]

I do as well.

[medinabuckeye1]

New tiers:

• Purdue
• RU, MSU, IU
• IL, IA, M, UMD, PSU, NU, UW
• Nebraska
• Ohio State
• Minnesota

Updated projected final standings / BTT seeds:

• 18-2/29-2 Purdue
• 12-8/21-10 Illinois
• 12-8/20-11 Rutgers
• 12-8/20-11 Michigan State
• 11-9/20-11 Penn State
• 11-9/19-12 Iowa
• 11-9/20-11 Maryland
• 11-9/17-14 Michigan
• 11-9/20-11 Indiana
• 10-10/19-12 Northwestern
• 10-10/18-12 Wisconsin
• 7-13/14-17 Nebraska
• 3-17/11-20 Ohio State
• 1-19/7-23 Minnesota

Tiebreakers:
The three team tie between IL/RU/MSU for 2nd/3rd/4th is first broken by H2H2H:

• 2-0 Illinois
• 1-2 Rutgers (loses H2H2H to IL, beats MSU based on record against PU)
• 1-2 Michigan State (see above)

The five team tie between PSU/IA/UMD/M/IU for 5th/6th/7th/8th/9th is broken by H2H2H2H2H:

• 4-2 Penn State because they do not travel to Bloomington nor Iowa City.  
• 3-2 Iowa because they do not host Penn State and they do not travel to College Park nor Ann Arbor
• 3-3 Maryland
• 3-4 Michigan because they do not host Iowa
• 2-4 Indiana because they do not host Maryland nor Penn State

The two team tie between NU/UW for 10th/11th would be broken by H2H but they are scheduled to play twice and projected to split.  Thus we move to record against the best team(s), then the next, etc: Both are projected to go 0-season against Purdue so we drop to record against the three 12-8 teams:

• 2-3 Northwestern because they do not host MSU, won at MSU, and lost at home to RU
• 1-3 Wisconsin because they do not visit East Lansing nor Piscataway but lost at home to Illinois and Michigan State

Thus, the projected match-ups for the BTT at the United Center in Chicago, IL are:
Wednesday, March 8, BTN:

• #11 Wisconsin vs #14 Minnesota, 830
• #12 Nebraska vs #13 Ohio State, 6

Thursday, March 9, BTN:

• #5 Penn State vs UNL/tOSU, 230
• #6 Iowa vs UW/MN, 9
• #7 Maryland vs #10 Northwestern, 630
• #8 Michigan vs #9 Indiana, noon

Friday, March 10, BTN:

• #1 Purdue vs M/IU, noon
• #2 Illinois vs UMD/NU, 630
• #3 Rutgers vs IA/UW/MN, 9
• #4 Michigan State vs PSU/UNL/tOSU, 230

Saturday, March 11, CBS:

• PU/M/IU vs MSU/PSU/UNL/tOSU, 1
• IL/UMD/NU vs RU/IA/UW/MN, 330

Sunday, March 12, CBS:

• PU/M/IU/MSU/PSU/UNL/tOSU vs IL/UMD/NU/RU/IA/UW/MN, 330

[medinabuckeye1]

Oh I know, I meant my emotions are way too negative to be picking wins and losses. I would just predict L L L L L L L L L L L L

The tier system has now officially adopted the @MaximumSam prediction as the Buckeyes are now in tier-5 and projected to lose all of their nine remaining games.

Personally, I'm past the point of caring. I've reached the point where I'm basically a neutral observer when watching Ohio State play:

• Win: Yay, I'm happy my team won. 
• Lose: Good, I'm happy to be one step closer to forcing the issue vis-a-vis Gene Smith taking action. 

[medinabuckeye1]

A few days ago I pointed out that this is the least exciting league title race I can remember.  @grillrat objected, I think mostly because he didn't want to jinx it and I understand that, but I think that this weekend is the last real chance to make it a serious race:  

Purdue plays one of their toughest remaining games.  They are in Bloomington for a rivalry game against the Hoosiers who had won five straight and were looking like the preseason league favorite up until a hiccup in College Park earlier this week.  The Indiana faithful will pack Assembly Hall and the Hoosiers would like nothing more than to take down their ancient instate rival.  The worldwide leader has the Hoosiers as a VERY slight favorite.  This game is Saturday at 4 on ESPN.  

Meanwhile, Purdue's two closest pursuers both have difficult games this weekend.  Rutgers hosts Michigan State at noon on FOX while Illinois visits Iowa at 230, also on FOX.  

Basically what I am saying is that if you watch FOX from noon to about 430 tomorrow than switch over to ESPN, by dinnertime you may well have watched the effective end of the 2023 B1G Title race.  

Best case for Purdue (and worst case for the rest of us either as fans of a team with a shot or as neutral fans who would enjoy an exciting race):

• Purdue wins in Bloomington, improves to 12-1
• Illinois loses in Iowa City, drops to 7-5
• Rutgers loses in the RAC to MSU, drops to 7-5.  

At that point Purdue would hold a 4.5 game lead with 8/9 games to go.  At that point we may-as-well let them hang the banner next week.  

Worst case for Purdue (and best case for the rest of us):

• Indiana takes out Purdue in Bloomington, Purdue drops to 11-2
• Illinois wins in Iowa City, improves to 8-4
• Rutgers beats MSU, improves to 8-4.  

Purdue would still be a pretty strong favorite with a 2.5 game lead but there would at least be some hope for the Illini, Scarlet Knights, Hoosiers (would be 7-5), Terps (7-5 assuming they win in Minneapolis), and Wolverines (7-5 once they beat the reeling Buckeyes).  

The above are the first three league games this weekend and after that the rest feel a bit anti-climactic but here they are:

• Maryland at Minnesota Saturday at 9 on BTN
• Ohio State at Michigan Sunday at 1 on CBS
• Penn State at Nebraska Sunday at 4 on BTN
• Northwestern at Wisconsin Sunday at 630 on BTN

[medinabuckeye1]

As of this moment, there is a 3.5 game difference between 1st place and 2nd place.

As of this moment, there is a 3.5 game difference between 2nd place and 12th place.

Sheesh, what a year.

The gap between 2nd and 11th has gotten even closer as there is now only a two game differential between:

• 7-4 IL and RU are tied for 2nd/3rd
• 5-6 PSU and UW are tied for 10th/11th

Thus, right now two games separate having to play on Wednesday in the BTT and getting not only Wednesday but also Thursday off as the #2 (or 3 or 4) seed.  

This is essentially the trade-off for the lack of a compelling league title race.  Everything else is REALLY exciting.  

My view is that #2 through #11 are effectively interchangeable.  Purdue is clearly better than the rest while Nebraska, Ohio State, and Minnesota are clearly inferior to the rest but the other 10 are REALLY close.  I would seriously rather play #2 on a bad day than #11 on a good day.  It is that close.  Games between those 10 teams have more to do with homecourt and who is having a good/bad day than with which is the better team.  

[bayareabadger]

A few days ago I pointed out that this is the least exciting league title race I can remember.  @grillrat objected, I think mostly because he didn't want to jinx it and I understand that, but I think that this weekend is the last real chance to make it a serious race.

So this got me looking at older conference races. I started with low-loss teams and started looking at the standings. (Went back to 2005)

2015 Wisconsin lost third third Big 10 game, but then won 10 in a row. They were up three games when they played at second-place Maryland, who won, but UW won the rest and the next closest team finished four back.

2014 won the conference by 3 games, but won it's last 5 after a 10-3 start. MSU was right with them til early Feb, and UW fell back early. 

2011 Ohio State opened 11-0, was 3 up in the loss column as of 2/12. They lost two and had UW and Purdue at their heels for a bit, but won the last four.

2005 Illinois started 15-0. UW got conference loss No. 3 on Feb 5. MSU got loss No. 2 on Feb 1. 

[Brutus Buckeye]

I can't believe that I am about to willingly endure this GAME. I must be a glutton for punishment. 

[Brutus Buckeye]

[ELA]

So this got me looking at older conference races. I started with low-loss teams and started looking at the standings. (Went back to 2005)

2015 Wisconsin lost third third Big 10 game, but then won 10 in a row. They were up three games when they played at second-place Maryland, who won, but UW won the rest and the next closest team finished four back.

2014 won the conference by 3 games, but won it's last 5 after a 10-3 start. MSU was right with them til early Feb, and UW fell back early.

2011 Ohio State opened 11-0, was 3 up in the loss column as of 2/12. They lost two and had UW and Purdue at their heels for a bit, but won the last four.

2005 Illinois started 15-0. UW got conference loss No. 3 on Feb 5. MSU got loss No. 2 on Feb 1.

I think there was an MSU team that won by 4 or 5 games in the 18 game era, but more because the conference wasn't deep.  I was to say they were 14-4 and next best was 10-8?

[medinabuckeye1]

Updated league title race. The combination of Purdue's loss in Bloomington and Rutgers' home win keeps the league title race at least somewhat interesting although Illinois' loss in Iowa City means that they didn't capitalize on the chance to close the gap.

Thus discussion necessarily starts with the leading Boilermakers. They are 11-2 which puts them two games up in the loss column with seven to go. Thus:

• If PU goes 6-1 or better they win the title outright no matter what.
• If PU goes 5-2 they win at least a share an only RU could tie them.
• If PU goes 4-3 or worse then multiple teams have a shot.

The problem for the teams chasing Purdue is their remaining schedule isn't particularly daunting. Purdue's remaining games roughly in order of most likely to least likely loss:

• At UMD (7-5), 2/16
• At NU (6-5), 2/12
• At UW (5-6), 3/2
• Vs IU (7-5), 2/25
• Vs IA (7-5), 2/9
• Vs IL (7-5), 3/5
• Vs tOSU (3-8), 2/19

I think the key is Purdue's back-to-back road games next weekend and next week. If they win those, it is over. 


Everybody else:
Rutgers is 8-4 and beat Purdue in West Lafayette but they do not host the Boilermakers this year so all they can do is keep winning and rooting for Purdue's opponents. 

Indiana, Maryland, Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern, and Michigan each have five losses. Only Indiana has beaten the Boilermakers. Maryland and Northwestern host them while Indiana, Iowa, and Illinois visit Mackey. 

All the five-loss teams need a lot of help since none of them play Purdue more than one more time and they would need Purdue to lose at least thrice. 

Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin each have six losses so they are in the race mathematically but they would need an extremely unlikely combination of finishing MUCH better than they have looked so far and Purdue finishing MUCH worse than they have looked so far.

Nebraska has nine losses as will Ohio State within about half an hour so one of them could theoretically tie the Boilermakers but they would need two things:

• To win out, and
• For Purdue to lose out.

Neither of those things have a likelihood distinguishable from zero so they are out.

Minnesota is mathematically eliminated.