2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

LOL I'm not at the point where I can pick the Buckeyes in any game. Lemme see how they look against the Badgers.

Not saying I'm clairvoyant, just my guess.

[MaximumSam]

Not saying I'm clairvoyant, just my guess.

Oh I know, I meant my emotions are way too negative to be picking wins and losses. I would just predict L L L L L L L L L L L L 

[medinabuckeye1]

Over the weekend there were two "upsets" vis-a-vis the tiers:

• Illinois' win in Madison, and
• Iowa's home win over Rutgers

As it stands now, the tiers are:

• PU, RU-2
• MSU, UW-1
• NU+2, IA+1, tOSU+1, M, UMD, IL, PSU, IU
• UNL-2
• BLANK
• MN+1

The numbers are "net upsets" so, for example, Rutgers is listed as "-2" because they have one positive upset (road win over PU) and three negative upsets (road loss to tOSU, home loss to IA, road loss to IA).  

The upsets so far have been:

[medinabuckeye1]

First, lets discuss the teams that are outside of +/-1:

Rutgers -2:
The difference between tier-1 and tier-2 is the expected result in road games against tier-3 teams.  There are eight such games and for Rutgers here is how they have gone:

• at UMD, do not visit
• at M, do not visit
• at tOSU, lost on 12/8
• at NU, won on 1/11
• at IA, lost on 1/29
• at IU, 2/7
• at IL, 2/11
• at PSU, 2/26

So the Scarlet Knights are 1-2 in these games with three more to play.  I think we should move them down a tier. 

Northwestern +2:
Moving Rutgers down to tier-2 will move NU down to +1 because their home loss to Rutgers will become a negative upset so I think we are good on this one. 

Nebraska -2:
Moving Nebraska down a tier would simply place the blank tier between the big group and UNL instead of between Nebraska and Minnesota.  The problem, as I see it, is that Nebraska already won at Minnesota on January 7 so I think we need a blank tier between UNL and MN. 

Maybe Nebraska is bad enough that we need to add a tier in between them and the big group?  The difference there is the result in UNL's home games against the tier-3 teams.  There are eight such possible games and for Nebraska, here is how they have gone:

• vs IU, do not host
• vs M, do not host
• vs IA, won 12/29
• vs IL, lost 1/10
• vs tOSU, won 1/18
• vs NU, lost 1/25
• vs PSU, 2/5
• vs UMD, 2/19

Nebraska is 2-2 in these games so they are going to have two upsets either way, lets leave them alone. 

Then there are two other teams that I think we need to discuss:
Indiana:
Boiler pointed out a while ago that it looks like something has changed with IU.  I concur.  When the Hoosiers walked off the court in State College, PA back on 1/11 they were 1-4 in the league, 10-6 overall, and looked NOTHING like the preseason B1G Favorite.  In their five games since they are 5-0 with four dominant wins (including in Champaign) and they have more-or-less looked like the preseason B1G Favorite.  They are even with an upset win in Champaign and an upset loss at home to NU but in spite of that, I think we should move them up because they have looked the part lately. 

Wisconsin:
847 has been saying that something is wrong in Madison for a while and I think that the somewhat non-competitive loss in Champaign confirms his concern.  The Badgers have lost six of seven and just do not look like a tier-2 quality team at this point.  They are only -1 but it is worth noting that their positive upset (at IA) was way back in December while their two negative upsets (vsMSU, vsIL) were in January.  I think we should move them down. 

Thus, I propose the following new tiers:

• PU
• RU, MSU, IU
• UW, IA, M, UMD, NU, IL, tOSU, PSU
• UNL
• BLANK
• MN

Please share your thoughts TODAY because I'd like to get consensus and update the projections before this week's games. 

[847badgerfan]

I'm on board with the proposal.

[boilerbanger]

I thought you were going to move IU to Tier 2 also

[medinabuckeye1]

I thought you were going to move IU to Tier 2 also

You are right.

I said that, and planned on it, and just forgot to type it that way. Edited.

[boilerbanger]

Looks good to me as well

[ELA]

Looks good here.  Except I might add a blank between Purdue and the group, although I guess Purdue lost to Rutgers, won by 1 at MSU, and hasn't gone to Bloomington yet.

[medinabuckeye1]

I'm on board with the proposal.

Looks good to me as well

Looks good here.  Except I might add a blank between Purdue and the group, although I guess Purdue lost to Rutgers, won by 1 at MSU, and hasn't gone to Bloomington yet.

Since there is general agreement at least so far, I've gone ahead and made the changes. 

@ELA , as far as putting a blank tier between Purdue and the rest, I'll wait and see what happens this weekend when Purdue travels to Bloomington.  If they win, then we'll add a tier between, if not then we will not. 

So the tiers are:

• PU
• RU+1, MSU, IU
• NU+1, IA, IL, M, UMD, PSU, tOSU, UW-1
• UNL-2
• BLANK
• MN+1

As you can see, only Nebraska is outside of +/-1 in net upsets and there isn't any easy way to solve it. 

Updated projected final standings/BTT seeds are:

• 18-2/29-2 Purdue
• 12-8/20-11 Rutgers
• 11-9/20-11 Indiana
• 11-9/19-12 Iowa
• 11-9/19-12 Michigan State
• 11-9/20-11 Illinois
• 10-10/19-12 Maryland
• 10-10/19-12 Northwestern
• 10-10/16-15 Michigan
• 10-10/19-12 Penn State
• 9-11/17-14 Ohio State (wins tie with UW based on H2H due to no game in Madison)
• 9-11/17-13 Wisconsin (loses tie with tOSU based on H2H due to no game in Madison)
• 7-13/14-17 Nebraska
• 1-19/7-23 Minnesota

Tiebreakers for the multi-team ties:
The four-way tie for 3rd/4th/5th/6th at 11-9 is broken by H2H2H2H:

• 4-2 Indiana because they won in Champaign
• 3-2 Iowa because they don't visit Champaign
• 2-3 MSU because they don't host Illinois
• 1-3 Illinois because they don't host IA, don't visit East Lansing, and lost at home to Indiana

The four-way tie for 7th/8th/9th/10th at 10-10 is broken by H2H2H2H:

• 3-2 Maryland because they do not visit Evanston
• 2-2 Northwestern because they do not visit State College nor host UMD. 
• 3-3 Michigan
• 2-3 Penn State because they do not host Northwestern

NOTE:
Northwestern and Michigan are both projected to go .500 H2H2H2H (Michigan at 3-3 and Northwestern at 2-2).  Per B1G Rules, that DOES NOT get decided based on their H2H (wouldn't matter, they play twice and are projected to split).  Instead, those two teams drop to the next tiebreaker which is record against the best team(s) in the league, then the next, etc:
Both are projected to go 0-season against 18-2 Purdue. 

Next is 12-8 Rutgers.  Northwestern plays them twice and SHOULD go 1-1 while Michigan does not host them and should go 0-1.  That SHOULD be it but Northwestern lost at home to the Scarlet Knights so they are both projected to go 0-season against Rutgers.  NOTE, the fact that NU is projected to go 0-2 while M is projected to go 0-1 DOES NOT matter.  The rules state explicitly that 0-1 is NOT better than 0-2. 


Next is the FOUR teams projected to go 11-9, MSU, IU, IA, IL:

• 5-2 Northwestern:  Doesn't host MSU, won in East Lansing and Bloomington. 
• 2-4 Michigan:  Hosts neither IL nor IA. 

NOTE:
All of that was just to determine the difference between the #8 and #9 seed which is only relevant insofar as it determines which jerseys the two teams wear in their BTT opener. 

Anyway, based on all of the above, the match-ups at the B1G Tournament at the United Center in Chicago, IL would be:
Wednesday, March 8, BTN:

• #11 Ohio State vs #14 Minnesota, 830
• #12 Wisconsin vs #13 Nebraska, 6

Thursday, March 9, BTN:

• #5 Michigan State vs UW/UNL, 230
• #6 Illinois vs tOSU/MN, 9
• #7 Maryland vs #10 Penn State, 630
• #8 Northwestern vs #9 Michigan, noon

Friday, March 10, BTN:

• #1 Purdue vs NU/M, noon
• #2 Rutgers vs UMD/PSU, 630
• #3 Indiana vs IL/tOSU/MN, 9
• #4 Iowa vs MSU/UW/UNL, 230

Saturday, March 11, CBS:

• PU/NU/M vs IA/MSU/UW/UNL, 1
• RU/UMD/PSU vs IU/IL/tOSU/MN, 330

Sunday, March 12, CBS:

• PU/NU/M/IA/MSU/UW/UNL vs RU/UMD/PSU/IU/IL/tOSU/MN, 330

[ELA]

I'd be ok with that draw.  Only swing factor is whether OSU and Wisconsin have mailed it in or are fighting for a tourney bid.

Also would set up a fun Indiana-Rutgers semi if the seeds hold.  The semis are the worst round of the tournament.  Nobody really cares about it, unless you are on the bubble, or once you are playing on Sunday, you might as well win.  So the semis are generally between 4 teams who are already in the tournament, and don't care either way.  But I think Indiana-Rutgers would be different.  This tournament is 25 years old now, and the fact that Indiana has never won it, is crazy.  Tom Izzo has been criticized for not prioritizing it, and MSU has still won it 6 times, more than any other school.  Iowa hasn't been consistently good over that period, and has won it 3 times.  Michigan endured the worst period of their program history, entirely during its existence...and has won it 3 times.  Indiana has never won it.  For all of their banners, and as generally meaningless as it is, that's a big missing one.  Then Rutgers, they are generally lacking for banners in general, so they'd be all in as well.

[ELA]

My first resume only Bracket of the year (2/3 SOR, 1/3 KenPom), for now using SOR to determine regular season champ, and KenPom for tourney champ

1/30 Update (last update where I use SOR to determine regular season conference champ)

NCAA
MIDWEST

• #1 PURDUE vs. #16 Grambling/Northwestern State
• #8 New Mexico vs. #9 NC State
• #5 TCU vs. #12 Kent State
• #4 Connecticut vs. #13 Drake
• #3 Baylor vs. #14 Dayton
• #6 Providence vs. #11 IOWA
• #7 North Carolina vs. #10 Arkansas
• #2 UCLA vs. #15 Youngstown State

SOUTH

• #1 Alabama vs. #16 Northwestern State/Wagner
• #8 Duke vs. #9 Boise State
• #5 INDIANA vs. #12 Sam Houston State
• #4 Iowa State vs. #13 Liberty
• #3 Virginia vs. #14 Furman
• #6 Auburn vs. #11 Oklahoma/Utah State
• #7 ILLINOIS vs. #10 Creighton
• #2 Texas vs. #15 Vermont

WEST

• #1 Houston vs. #16 Norfolk State
• #8 West Virginia vs. #9 MICHIGAN STATE
• #5 San Diego State vs. #12 Oral Roberts
• #4 Gonzaga vs. #13 UC Santa Barbara
• #3 Kansas State vs. #14 Iona
• #6 Saint Mary's vs. #11 Clemson
• #7 Missouri vs. #10 MARYLAND
• #2 Arizona vs. #15 Montana State

EAST

• #1 Kansas vs. #16 Radford
• #8 RUTGERS vs. #9 USC
• #5 Florida Atlantic vs. #12 Charleston
• #4 Marquette vs. #13 Marshall
• #3 Xavier vs. #14 Yale
• #6 Memphis vs. #11 Kentucky/Nevada
• #7 Miami vs. #10 NORTHWESTERN
• #2 Tennessee vs. #15 Colgate

NIT
STATE COLLEGE

• #1 PENN STATE vs. #8 UMES
• #4 Southern Miss vs. #5 Wake Forest
• #3 Utah vs. #6 Loyola Marymount
• #2 Mississippi State vs. #7 UNC Asheville

COLLEGE STATION

• #1 Texas A&M vs. #8 Morehead State
• #4 Saint Louis vs. #5 St. John's
• #3 Virginia Tech vs. #6 Southern Illinois
• #2 Arizona State vs. #7 Eastern Washington

STILLWATER

• #1 Oklahoma State vs. #8 UM Lowell
• #4 Oregon vs. #5 Utah Valley
• #3 Pittsburgh vs. #6 Cincinnati
• #2 OHIO STATE vs. #7 Cornell

MADISON

• #1 WISCONSIN vs. #8 Milwaukee
• #4 North Texas vs. #5 Louisiana
• #3 Florida vs. #6 VCU
• #2 Seton Hall vs. #7 Quinnipiac

BIG TEN TEAMS

• #1 Purdue
• #5 Indiana - moved up from #7
• #7 Illinois - moved up from #10
• #8 Rutgers
• #9 Michigan State - dropped from #7
• #10 Northwestern - moved up from #11
• #10 Maryland
• #11 Iowa

• NIT #1 Penn State - dropped from NCAA
• NIT #1 Wisconsin - dropped from NCAA
• NIT #2 Ohio State

• Michigan - dropped from NIT to #2 team out
• Nebraska - dropped from #3 team out to #6 team out

• Minnesota - n/a

[ELA]

I'm sure we have an NBA thread buried somewhere, but my god, as fun as Luka is, the Mavericks as a whole are the closest thing we have in American sports to European soccer in terms of just a full roster of flopping

[ELA]

Also, the "goat"


https://twitter.com/CookedByLakers/status/1619790591180808194?t=JCH8ALC9w_imnAZQttDRhA&s=19