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Topic: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown

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ELA

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Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #560 on: June 04, 2020, 08:18:32 AM »

#4 Penn State Nittany Lions
#2 in Big Ten
I thought all James Franklin did in his Joe Moorhead hire was delay the inevitable, and without him, he was headed right back to where the Nittany Lions were prior to Moorehead’s hiring.  Franklin may never be an A+ gameday coach, but he seems to be more than just an ace recruiter, he’s proving he can be a strong program CEO as well.  The Nittany Lions gave Ohio State everything they could handle in Columbus, and now, getting them at home, ensuring that the Big Ten East title goes through Happy Valley.  To prove that Franklin isn’t just a big time recruiter, this could be his best offense yet, and that’s with his highest rated running back recruit (Ricky Slade) and highest rated receiver recruit (Justin Shorter) both transferring out because they couldn’t get on the field.  The development of a deep stable of running backs is the key here, led by Journey Brown, who might be the best back in the conference.  He didn’t do much in his first season and a half, getting 8 carries in 2018, and only going over 6 carries in a game once.  The first game he saw his workload increase, he averaged just 3.8 ypc on 12 carries against Michigan State.  But over November, and through the Cotton Bowl, Brown took off, with four 100 yard games over Penn State’s final five.  His 6.9 ypc wound up leading all Big Ten backs who averaged at least 10 carries a game, 4th nationally.  The next step is whether the true junior can up his carries to 200+.  Maybe he won’t have to, with Noah Cain and Devyn Ford combining for 737 yards on 136 carries (5.41 ypc) as true freshman, with another pair of 4* recruits joining the team in Keyvone Lee and Caziah Holmes.  They may look to play Holmes in the K.J. Hamler role though, although Hamler was much more of a receiver in high school than Holmes was.  Holmes is an early enrollee, listed as a running back on Penn State’s spring roster, but he’s a 5’11”, 175 pound burner, who just needs the ball in his hands.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see him fill that returner/slot role.  Particularly considering that for as deep as Penn State is at running back, receiver...not so much.  Really, with Sean Clifford back at quarterback, Pat Friermuth, potentially the best tight end in the nation, back, and now joined by Theo Johnson, a top 5 tight end recruit; and two All-Big Ten linemen back, receiver is truly the only question mark on the Penn State offense.  Behind the departed Hamler, and Friermuth, a tight end, the top returning receiver is Jahad Dotson, with just 488 yards on 27 receptions.  Behind him, going down the list,...graduated, transferred, running back, transferred, before we land on Daniel George, the likely #2 receiver, who had 9 receptions last year, never more than 2 in a game, in mop up duty.  Hence my skepticism that Holmes sticks at running back.  The part that makes this interesting is that Minnesota offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarocca, who diced up the Penn State secondary with the routes he utilized his receivers for, was hired away by the enemy.  The top end of the defense is as good as any in the country, with Micah Parsons winning Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year as a sophomore.  The problem is while the Nittany Lions have All-American candidates at all three levels, they did also lose 7 starters.  The issue with Penn State’s defense is not finding guys to elevate from role players to stars, but finding complimentary pieces to fill the roles around the established stars.  The program recruits at a level that it shouldn’t be a problem.


KEY PLAYERS
QBSean Clifford, Junior
TEPat Friermuth, Junior
TWill Fries, Senior
.
DEShaka Toney, Senior
LBMicah Parsons, Junior
CBTariq Castro-Fields, Senior


Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #561 on: June 04, 2020, 10:35:47 AM »
#4 Penn State Nittany Lions
#2 in Big Ten
I thought all James Franklin did in his Joe Moorhead hire was delay the inevitable, and without him, he was headed right back to where the Nittany Lions were prior to Moorehead’s hiring.  Franklin may never be an A+ gameday coach, but he seems to be more than just an ace recruiter, he’s proving he can be a strong program CEO as well.  The Nittany Lions gave Ohio State everything they could handle in Columbus, and now, getting them at home, ensuring that the Big Ten East title goes through Happy Valley.  To prove that Franklin isn’t just a big time recruiter, this could be his best offense yet, and that’s with his highest rated running back recruit (Ricky Slade) and highest rated receiver recruit (Justin Shorter) both transferring out because they couldn’t get on the field.  The development of a deep stable of running backs is the key here, led by Journey Brown, who might be the best back in the conference.  He didn’t do much in his first season and a half, getting 8 carries in 2018, and only going over 6 carries in a game once.  The first game he saw his workload increase, he averaged just 3.8 ypc on 12 carries against Michigan State.  But over November, and through the Cotton Bowl, Brown took off, with four 100 yard games over Penn State’s final five.  His 6.9 ypc wound up leading all Big Ten backs who averaged at least 10 carries a game, 4th nationally.  The next step is whether the true junior can up his carries to 200+.  Maybe he won’t have to, with Noah Cain and Devyn Ford combining for 737 yards on 136 carries (5.41 ypc) as true freshman, with another pair of 4* recruits joining the team in Keyvone Lee and Caziah Holmes.  They may look to play Holmes in the K.J. Hamler role though, although Hamler was much more of a receiver in high school than Holmes was.  Holmes is an early enrollee, listed as a running back on Penn State’s spring roster, but he’s a 5’11”, 175 pound burner, who just needs the ball in his hands.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see him fill that returner/slot role.  Particularly considering that for as deep as Penn State is at running back, receiver...not so much.  Really, with Sean Clifford back at quarterback, Pat Friermuth, potentially the best tight end in the nation, back, and now joined by Theo Johnson, a top 5 tight end recruit; and two All-Big Ten linemen back, receiver is truly the only question mark on the Penn State offense.  Behind the departed Hamler, and Friermuth, a tight end, the top returning receiver is Jahad Dotson, with just 488 yards on 27 receptions.  Behind him, going down the list,...graduated, transferred, running back, transferred, before we land on Daniel George, the likely #2 receiver, who had 9 receptions last year, never more than 2 in a game, in mop up duty.  Hence my skepticism that Holmes sticks at running back.  The part that makes this interesting is that Minnesota offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarocca, who diced up the Penn State secondary with the routes he utilized his receivers for, was hired away by the enemy.  The top end of the defense is as good as any in the country, with Micah Parsons winning Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year as a sophomore.  The problem is while the Nittany Lions have All-American candidates at all three levels, they did also lose 7 starters.  The issue with Penn State’s defense is not finding guys to elevate from role players to stars, but finding complimentary pieces to fill the roles around the established stars.  The program recruits at a level that it shouldn’t be a problem.


KEY PLAYERS
QBSean Clifford, Junior
TEPat Friermuth, Junior
TWill Fries, Senior
.
DEShaka Toney, Senior
LBMicah Parsons, Junior
CBTariq Castro-Fields, Senior


I am not comfortable with this. Haha

PSU had a lot of coaching turnover this year, and the lack of spring ball hurts.  Don’t be shocked if PSU loses to VT early. :(

CWSooner

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Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #562 on: June 04, 2020, 10:47:55 AM »
None of this matters obviously, it could well turn out Florida ends up 9-3 and Bama goes 13-0, that would not shock me (or the reverse).

This is probably a more traditional kind of ranking:

https://247sports.com/college/georgia/LongFormArticle/College-football-preseason-Top-25-rankings-2020-season-Alabama-Crimson-Tide-Georgia-Bulldogs-Florida-Texas-Ohio-State--147796428/#147796428_19
Yes.  Three SEC teams in the top 5 is definitely a more traditional kind of ranking.
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #563 on: June 04, 2020, 10:57:29 AM »
Yes.  Three SEC teams in the top 5 is definitely a more traditional kind of ranking.
It's how they end up that counts of course.

A poster didn't like where ELA had his team, so this ranking would make him happier I suppose.

If someone has my Dawgs ranked 130th, or 50th, or 20th, or 1st, I may note it with some amusement, but I can't really get up much dander over it myself.  I'd just like to have a season, even if it's a weird season with few or no fans.

These protests may end up teaching is something about the virus and it's spread in crowds.

FearlessF

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Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #564 on: June 04, 2020, 10:59:54 AM »
rankings are like models

they are ALL wrong
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #565 on: June 04, 2020, 11:03:10 AM »
All models are wrong, some models are useful.

You know of course the model about atomic structure, this central nucleus with protons and neutrons tightly packed and electrons whizzing around like planets in orbit.  The model is wrong in many aspects, but it is useful.

F = ma isn't a model really, and it's not wrong.

FearlessF

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Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #566 on: June 04, 2020, 11:20:20 AM »
All models are wrong, some models are useful.


as you can tell, I like this

mostly thinking of weather models, but I like to try it with all things that are similar to a model
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ELA

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Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #567 on: June 04, 2020, 12:24:35 PM »
as you can tell, I like this

mostly thinking of weather models, but I like to try it with all things that are similar to a model
I find models mostly useless, but nice to look at

Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #568 on: June 04, 2020, 01:34:49 PM »
Ha.  I generated a LOT of models in my day, had no real choice.  Some were mathematical, curve fitting whatever, and some were more conceptual, like how some chemical reaction proceeds through what intermediate etc.  That can be helpful in predicting what will happen at some different temperature.  Polymer science uses a lot of models that can predict how a polymer may deform under load after say 3 decades.

Time-temperature superposition they call it.  You can model this with a short term (3 hour) experiment.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #569 on: June 04, 2020, 01:42:31 PM »
You clowns are really making thread hard on Drew later this month. I mean, he's the one who has to clean up all the messes made so he can publish it.
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ELA

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Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #570 on: June 04, 2020, 01:57:45 PM »
You clowns are really making thread hard on Drew later this month. I mean, he's the one who has to clean up all the messes made so he can publish it.
I can go through and delete my rankings, so that he can pull the useful part

Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #571 on: June 04, 2020, 02:18:49 PM »
In the future, maybe we have a locked thread on which only ELA can post and another thread for commentary.

rolltidefan

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Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #572 on: June 04, 2020, 02:43:14 PM »
Well, I had them 11, not 16.

I think someone else, not me, said Young was too small.  And by the time Murray took over at Oklahoma he was 195; those other guys you listed are all over 200.  Young was 183 at the AA bowl.

Also, by Bill Connolly's (who has Alabama preseason #1 FTR) own metric, Florida returns more production on both offense and defense than Alabama does.
fwiw, i have no problem with your ranking bama #11. eventually we'll drop, and if you think it's this year, well, maybe it is.

but the returning production thing is suspect. the problem is the returning production is based solely on a % lost, not gross. bama lost a ton % wise, no doubt. but still return more production than almost anyone in sec.

only thing uf has on offense over bama is maybe qb, though it's not a big difference either way, imo.

but wr production returning, bama's top 2 guys (smith and waddle) has more returning yards than uf's entire team returning.
running, bama's harris has more returning rushing yards than the entire returning team for uf.
both teams return most of their oline.

bama's lost off production is huge, but it's returning production is still among them best (if not tops) in the sec and, therefore, near the top of the nation.

as for defense, i got no idea. we lost so much to injuries it's hard to tell who counts as returning or what. all i know is the feeling among bama fans is, should this team stay healthy, this will be one of the better defenses saban's had. high praise. we'll see if it hold true (hopefully without the injuries either way).

enjoyed the read.

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Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
« Reply #573 on: June 04, 2020, 02:45:23 PM »
In the future, maybe we have a locked thread on which only ELA can post and another thread for commentary.
That would certainly make things easier for Drew.
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