Print Page - 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown

The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on February 14, 2020, 11:51:42 AM

Title: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on February 14, 2020, 11:51:42 AM

Starts tomorrow, get ready to strongly disagree!

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Benthere2 on February 14, 2020, 11:56:13 AM

I look forward to this every year!

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2020, 12:19:05 PM

I'm ready!

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on February 14, 2020, 12:22:53 PM

Quote from: Benthere2 on February 14, 2020, 11:56:13 AM

I look forward to this every year!

I don't

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 14, 2020, 01:29:42 PM

There will probably be at least three or four teams that will be worse than the Wolverines.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on February 14, 2020, 02:28:42 PM

Quote from: ELA on February 14, 2020, 11:51:42 AM

Starts tomorrow, get ready to strongly disagree!

You putting Sparty behind UTSA,Old Dominion,Akron & UMASS?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on February 14, 2020, 02:29:47 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 14, 2020, 01:29:42 PM

There will probably be at least three or four teams that will be worse than the Wolverines.

Oh will you never let it go......good job

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on February 14, 2020, 06:23:58 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 14, 2020, 02:28:42 PM

You putting Sparty behind UTSA,Old Dominion,Akron & UMASS?

I’m predicting MSU is 12th in preseason Big Ten. Ahead of only Rutgers and either Illinois or Maryland. Dantonio left such an unflushed toilet of a program.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 14, 2020, 06:56:52 PM

Michigan St will crack the top 100. There will be no more than three P5 teams that don't. There will be like 9 SEC teams in the top 20, including three of the top five.

Those are my wild stabs

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on February 14, 2020, 06:59:30 PM

Quote from: CatsbyAZ on February 14, 2020, 06:23:58 PM

I’m predicting MSU is 12th in preseason Big Ten. Ahead of only Rutgers and either Illinois or Maryland. Dantonio left such an unflushed toilet of a program.

Ya but some othes things conspired, good players either not making grades,being dismissed for getting in trouble and an inordinate amount of injuries too.But being blindly loyal to underachieving coaches certainly greased the skids.Ultimately he lifted the program up to great things and also watched it crash back down

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on February 14, 2020, 07:30:35 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on February 14, 2020, 06:59:30 PM

Ya but some othes things conspired, good players either not making grades,being dismissed for getting in trouble and an inordinate amount of injuries too.But being blindly loyal to underachieving coaches certainly greased the skids.Ultimately he lifted the program up to great things and also watched it crash back down

2019 7 6
2018 7 6
2017 10 3
2016 3 9
2015 12 2
2014 11 2
2013 13 1
2012 7 6
2011 11 3
2010 11 2
2009 6 7
2008 9 4
2007 7 6

___________________________

Dantonio got past 2016 - things aren't too awful bad

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on February 15, 2020, 05:11:32 PM

#130 UTEP Miners

#14 in Conference USA

I truly can’t believe we are here again, but yes. After discussing last year the unprecedented second consecutive appearance at the bottom of the list for the Miners, here we are for a third consecutive time. That’s typically because the worst teams tend to hedge young, and are replaced at the bottom by some school, usually with an extremely hot seat coach, who didn’t go young, tried to get to a bowl, and went 3-9, and still have major turnover in their starting lineup. However, for the second consecutive year, UTEP played to win now...and still didn’t. The picks thus far haven’t been far off, with the Miners going 2-22 over that span, including just 1 win over an FBS opponent over their past three seasons. Dana Dimel rotated between two quarterbacks last year, both of them seniors, both of them now gone. And that’s just the start of the issues for a team that returns less production, per Bill Connolly’s metric, than any school in the FBS except for Utah. And Utah was a game away from the Playoff. If the backups in El Paso were any good, I don’t think they’d be backups. The offense should be an absolute mess, but there is some reason for hope on the defensive side of the ball, starting with the cornerback pair. Josh Caldwell was tied for third in the conference in passes defended, but was one of only three players to rank in the top 20 in that stat, without recording an interception. Across from him is Duron Lowe, who is probably the best athlete on the team. Lowe, who arrived at UTEP via the JUCO route last year, is a former Kansas high school state champion in both the 100 meter and the long jump. That has translated to his return abilities, taking over kick return duties midway through the season, and tallying a 100 yard kick return touchdown against North Texas. With a full FBS offseason under his belt, if he can hone some of the technique issues, he has the physical abilities to be a factor. They will be aided if Praise Amaewhule becomes a more consistent threat off the edge. The redshirt freshman tied for the team lead in sacks, tackles for loss, and quarterback hurries. That said, he only had 3 sacks, for a UTEP defense that forced just 12 on the season. He wasn’t just Academic All-Conference, but was also a Conference USA Commissioners Academic medal winner. He’s a smart kid, with the capacity for massive growth. So while I say it’s a relative strength, that is considering a team that ranked #129 in SP+ defense last year and lost 6 starters, but does have two guys with breakout potential. The offensive situation is particularly bleak. Sophomore Gavin Hardison is the presumptive leader at quarterback going into spring, after seeing some action in the final two games last year, although was very unimpressive. They were ripe for a transfer, perhaps TCU transfer Justin Rogers, but they didn’t land one. As far as the running game goes, Joshua Fields, with 312 yards on a team-best 5.3 yards per carry is the only returnee from their top four rushers. Although while the line struggled to pass block, they were actually middle of the FBS pack in interior run blocking, led by the returning Bobby DeHaro at guard. The other two starting interior linemen have graduated though.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Justin Garrett, Senior
G	Bobby DeHaro, Junior
K	Gavin Baechle, Junior
	.
DE	Praise Amaewhule, Sophomore
CB	Duron Lowe, Senior
CB	Josh Caldwell, Senior

#129 North Texas Mean Green

#13 in Conference USA

Whoops. The Mean Green had gone 12-4 in Conference USA play with a conference title game appearance in the past two years, and their first run of three consecutive bowl games since 2001-2004. They brought back senior quarterback Mason Fine, who was the school’s all time leading passer before the end of his JUNIOR season. They were the preseason conference favorites, and had more players selected to the preseason all-conference team. And they went just 4-8. The bright side is that head coach Seth Littrell went from possibly the next hot coaching name, to back to Denton for a fourth season. Now, for the first time in his coaching career, he has to figure out how to do it without Mason Fine. Whoever the next quarterback is, should have plenty of weapons to work with, with all-conference players returning at running back, tight end, and a pair at receiver. But, this was an offense that fell to #85 in SP+, even with all those guys, and Fine, who, for lack of a better word, was fine. The offensive line was absolutely abysmal, ranking outside the top 100 in nearly every metric, even with four senior starters. So good luck with 4 new dudes, that couldn’t even beat out those players, now blocking for a guy who won’t be the best quarterback in school history. It might be Jason Bean, who saw action in 7 games last year, but 3 interceptions in just 35 pass attempts, small sample size caveat, is a little concerning. The defense should continue to be decent in the front seven, but the secondary looks to be a concern. The defense as a whole last year was probably better than the old stats, which just showed 32.5 ppg allowed, third worst in Conference USA. But, they were 6th, solidly middle of the pack, in yards per play allowed. They just simply couldn’t get off the field, forcing the fewest interceptions, allowing the third most first downs per game, with the fourth worst 3rd down defense, and the conference’s worst red zone defense, which didn’t force a single red zone turnover all season. Littrell is not sitting around and taking it, bringing in 5 new assistant coaches, which included replacing both coordinators. New offensive coordinator is former Tulsa offensive line coach Mike Bloesch, a guy whose only coordinating experience was from 2011-13...at Temple HIGH SCHOOL, and whose offensive line last year at Tulsa, was one of the ten worst in the FBS, so...ok? The new defensive coordinator is just the old defensive coordinator, Clint Bowen, who was the Mean Green defensive coordinator for one year, in 2011, but has been at his alma mater Kansas ever since. Les Miles demoted him from defensive coordinator to safeties coach upon his arrival, and his one previous year as North Texas’s defensive coordinator, the Mean Green were #103 in Defensive S&P+, so, again...ok?

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Tre Siggers, Junior
WR	Jaelon Darden, Senior
TE	Jason Pirtle, Senior
	.
DT	Dion Novil, Senior
LB	Tyreke Davis, Senior
LB	K.D. Davis, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 15, 2020, 05:59:58 PM

Texas takes some early body blows...

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on February 16, 2020, 10:13:14 AM

#128 New Mexico State Aggies

Independent

In 2017, Doug Martin took New Mexico State to their first bowl game since 1960, and following 2020, he’s probably going to get fired. On one hand you could say that’s a sign of the times. On the other hand, aside from that one year, where he went 7-6, he’s only gone 15-57 in Las Cruces, following a 29-53 run at Kent State, and has as bad a roster as anyone in the country this year. Quarterback Josh Adkins had the worst Total QBR of any full time starting quarterback in the nation...and Martin couldn’t be happier to have him back, considering the complete exodus of talent around him. Adkins isn’t just the starting quarterback, he’s also the leading returning rusher, edging out Naveon Mitchell, who had 7 carries for 29 yards on the season, following the graduation of Jason Huntley and Christian Gibson, and the transfers of Josh Foley, Dan Drew, and Matt Romero. Whoever steps into that role, should get plenty of opportunities. The Aggies changed their offensive gameplan in November, running for nearly 250 yards per game down the stretch. Martin did say that the team went to more padded practices in November, and in an age when teams are trending the opposite way, that is notable. The lack of creative run blocking schemes has been the biggest change in offensive line development, and that’s a direct result of not being able to run it in practice. New Mexico State went the other way late, and it worked. The issue is in addition to the running back exodus, they also lost three starting offensive linemen, including the two who Phil Steele put on his postseason honors list. And it’s not like teams just went away from it arbitrarily, there were health concerns. It’s one thing to do it for three weeks in November. To do it for four months, and get your linemen to buy in? We’ll see. The receiver group isn’t in much better shape, with the departure of the top 4 targets from 2019. And that’s from a passing offense that was #128 in yards per completion. So, how is this team not #130? Well, as bad as Adkins was, at least he’s an experienced starting quarterback, which is more than most teams ranked this low can say. And I have some faith in their defense, particularly in a front seven, that loses middle linebacker Javahn Ferguson, the heart of the defense, but returns the two linebackers who flanked him, and probably have more upside. Particularly Devin Richardson who finished third on the team in tackles, sacks and quarterback hurries as a freshman. Xander Yarberough wasn’t technically a starter, but may have been their best pass rusher. With the graduation of Cedric Wilcots, Yarberough moves from the 3rd down specialist, to an every down player. Then you’ve got the turnovers. The Aggies finished with the 2nd most turnovers in the nation, and the third worst turnover differential. With just a little bit of reversion to the mean there, you might see a win or two that were losses in 2019.

	KEY PLAYER
QB	Josh Adkins, Junior
WR	Robert Downs III, Senior
T	Jalen Guerrero, Senior
	.
DE	Xander Yarberough, Senior
LB	Rashie Hodge, Jr., Senior
LB	Devin Richardson, Sophomore

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 16, 2020, 10:26:57 AM

This one is just ten feet outside of Texas. And Rice hasn't gone yet.
Shouldn't a down Texas mean that there are more of the big bad Texas HS recruits to go around? How can the whole state be bad at CFB?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: JerseyTerrapin on February 16, 2020, 10:39:03 AM

Ha ha, you're doing this to get back at us for last night's game!

Seriously, I always like it too, although I expect to see Maryland very soon :'(

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on February 16, 2020, 12:05:46 PM

I strongly disagree, at random ...

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Hawkinole on February 16, 2020, 06:47:10 PM

This thread seems early this season. I enjoy reading it each year.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 16, 2020, 07:55:26 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 14, 2020, 06:56:52 PM

There will be like 9 SEC teams in the top 20, including three of the top five.

Those are my wild stabs

Been looking at the recruiting rankings?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 16, 2020, 07:56:30 PM

Driving cross-country on I-10 reveals how close NMST is to UTEP. Big-time rivalry, I bet. YUGE!

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on February 17, 2020, 02:14:02 PM

#127 Texas State Bobcats

#10 in Sun Belt

Texas State hired Jake Spavital away from under Dana Holgorson, where he was offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at West Virginia, for his offensive prowess. To say he underwhelmed on that front would be an understatement. The Bobcats had the worst offense in the Sun Belt, averaging just 5.0 ypp, “led” by a truly miserable run game, that averaged just 2.8 ypc, 4th worst in the FBS. Granted West Virginia was one of the three worse than them, so maybe that was to be expected. As a first year coach, Spavital had plenty of leash, and they do return a great deal of their production from 2019. Most importantly, maybe they actually play their best running back? Caleb Twyford, who was a receiver going into the year, established himself as the team’s best option in the backfield, after the opener against Texas A&M. However, down the stretch, the coaches turned to Anthony Taylor, who averaged a full 1.5 ypc less. Robert Brown Jr. is an interesting option as well. He hit some big splash plays, but never got more than 8 touches in a game. The skill position group should be bolstered by a pair of Power 5 transfer with immediate eligibility, being running back Jahmyl Jeter from Oklahoma State and receiver Tory Spears from Iowa State. Both have three years of eligibility remaining. Spavital rotated between two quarterbacks last year, and after settling on Tyler Vitt, Gresch Jackson entered his name in the transfer portal. However, Memphis transfer Brady McBride is now eligible as well. While the offense has plenty of returning experience, but very little of it proven, the defense is the exact opposite. The Bobcats could land three players on the All-Sun Belt team, including arguably the best cornerback duo in the conference, but behind that star power, there is almost nothing. The Bobcats were one of only two Sun Belt teams to allow under 200 passing yards per game, ranking third in the conference in ypa allowed. That was with a pair of new starters, a sophomore and a true freshman. Jarron Morris and Khambrall Winters should make teams run early and often. In front of them? Yikes. Caveon Patton mans the middle of the line, but around him is a whole lot of nothing, and that’s from a defense that could barely slow down the run last year with a senior laden front 7. It’s going to be critical for the Texas State offense to get out of the gates quickly. Teams only attempted 27 passes per game last year, lowest in the Sun Belt. They just got the lead, and leaned on that front seven. With the secondary likely even better this year, it seems likely to be the same. Texas State led at halftime just once last year. The way this defense in built again in 2020, that would be a disaster.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Tyler Vitt, Junior
RB	Caleb Twyford, Senior
WR	Trevis Graham Jr., Junior
	.
DT	Caveon Patton, Senior
CB	Jarron Morris, Junior
CB	Khambrall Winters, Sophomore

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on February 17, 2020, 03:40:15 PM

UGA will be at 7 I think.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 17, 2020, 06:21:36 PM

Man, Texas is just getting hammered.

It will balance out when the Longhorns get a helmet bump and aTm gets an SEC bump. But neither of them are anything special.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on February 18, 2020, 10:05:20 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 16, 2020, 07:56:30 PM

Driving cross-country on I-10 reveals how close NMST is to UTEP. Big-time rivalry, I bet. YUGE!

I've also driven the entire length of I10 and you are right. There are two things you probably wouldn't realize if you hadn't driven that:

El Paso is right on the NM border, and
NMST in Las Cruces is almost directly North of UTEP in El Paso.

I10 is only the fourth longest Interstate in the US because Jacksonville -> LA isn't as far as:

Boston -> Seattle (I90),
NYC -> San Francisco (I80), or
Wilmington -> Barstow (I40).

The portion of I10 through Texas is the longest portion of any Interstate in one state. Near the TX/LA border there is a milepost marked as the 880 and there is an Exit 880. Note that the TX/NM border is closer to Santa Monica than it is to the TX/LA border and similarly, the TX/LA border is closer to Jacksonville than it is to the TX/NM border. Ie, more than a third of I10 is in Texas.

Anyone who has ever driven it can tell you that I10 across Texas is a REALLY long drive.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 18, 2020, 10:23:13 AM

Yep. Been there. When I moved from SoCal to Atlanta back in 2005, I made the I-10 drive. Day 1 was SoCal to El Paso. Day 2 was El Paso to Houston. Both were 12 hour days behind the wheel. It's just weird to wake up in the morning, drive 12 hours, and realize you're still in the same state.

I also found it interesting that you could clearly tell when you were starting to get out of the desert. The things you'd drive over labeled "River" actually had water in them!

The trip back I did a little differently. Atlanta->Shreveport on day 1, and then just blasted all the way from Shreveport to Tucson on day 2 in a 15 hour sprint. But obviously that's I-20 to I-10, and much shorter within the state.

I-5 in California is similarly long. Just under 800 miles from the Mexican border to the Oregon border. However even the "boring" part of the road (from just north of the Grapevine outside of LA up until you basically hit the Shasta area) is much busier than those stretches of I-10 through west Texas.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on February 19, 2020, 11:45:26 AM

Day late for Tuesday's

#126 FIU Panthers

#12 in Conference USA

Butch Jones’ program appeared to be building towards 2020, with an offense loaded with returning talent. Depending on who you believed, either they or Marshall were favorites to win the East Division, giving the program a chance for their first ever Conference USA title game appearance, and the second conference title in conference history. The overall offensive numbers, look fine, but really they were just able to bully around the bottom of the conference, and for some reason Miami. In FIU’s six wins, they averaged 34.7 ppg, and in their six losses, just 17.8 ppg. And now they have to replace nearly every skill position player they relied upon a year ago. Only UL Monroe returns less offensive production than the Panthers. Gone is their starting quarterback, their top two running backs, and three of their four receivers who had more than 3 receptions. But at least they return their bookend tackles, off the best offensive line in the conference, who allowed just 14 sacks all season, easily the fewest in Conference USA, with a 2.37% sack rate, which was the best in the nation. Oh, Devontay Taylor announced he’s transferring to Florida State. So they don’t even have that going for them. Even their kicker, who missed 6 field goals from 35 yards or less, is off to Miami...who FIU beat! So where the Panthers are going to find points is a mystery. Now it’s on the defense to step up. While they lost their two best players, there is still as much talent as Butch Davis has had to work with in South Florida. Brothers Rishard and Richard Dames lead a secondary that technically lost both starting cornerbacks, but does still have Richard at safety, and now Rishard steps into a starting role after leading the team in interceptions a year ago, despite being a backup. The best NFL prospect though is pass rusher Alexy Jean-Baptiste, the former Arkansas transfer. He’s a 3-4 OLB in the pros at just 245 pounds, but in Conference USA he is a pain of a defensive end, who led the team in both sacks and tackles for loss. How the 2020 season pans out should depend heavily on getting fast out of the gate. The second game is a road trip to Central Florida, but aside from that, the schedule is incredibly backloaded. The Panthers play 4 of the 5 best teams from the conference a season ago (Louisiana Tech, Florida Atlantic, Western Kentucky, and Marshall), and play all four of those games in the final five games of this season. Prior to that, aside from the UCF game, they play an FCS team (Jacksonville State), a pair of FBS bottom dwellers (Liberty and Massachusetts), and thee conference opponents who went a combined 12-25 a year ago (Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee State, and Charlotte). So there is plenty of opportunity to get momentum early, but if they aren’t there bowl eligible by Halloween, it seems likely that FIU misses a bowl game for the first time under Davis.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Shemar Thornton, Senior
TE	Sterling Palmer, Junior
T	D'Ante Demery, Senior
	.
DE	Alexy Jean-Baptiste, Senior
CB	Rishard Dames, Senior
P	Tommy Heatherly, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on February 19, 2020, 06:51:26 PM

#125 Eastern Michigan Eagles

#12 in MAC

If Chris Creighton wants a much deserved life raft out of Ypsilanti, it might be a two year wait. I wrote the Eagles mini-resurgence off for 2018, just thinking there was too much to replace, including Brogan Roback, probably the second best quarterback in program history. Instead, Creighton was able to roll in Mike Glass III, who may have been better. With all due respect, and with only two years as starter, his counting numbers aren’t there, but Glass leaves Ypsilanti as the school’s all time leader in yards per attempts (8.1), passer rating (149.6), and completion percentage (65.3%). He also wound up #12 on the school’s all-time rushing leaderboard. So how much is Creighton, and how much is having literally two of the three best quarterbacks in school history come through back to back? We are about to find out, because the last time Eastern Michigan didn’t have one of them was 2013, when the Eagles went 2-10, with a 4th quarter come from behind win against Howard, and an overtime win over a 1-11 Western Michigan team. In 2014, both Creighton and Roback took over, and started the build to 25 wins over 4 seasons. Which for a school that had won 23 over the previous decade, was quite a feat. Going into 2018, there were some pieces around the missing quarterback. Now, Eastern Michigan ranks #125 in the FBS in returning production, dead last in the MAC. They were also able to be one of the few teams to boast experience last year in a very young MAC. Six of the 40 youngest teams in the FBS last year were MAC teams, and that doesn’t include Toledo, who generally recruits at the highest level in the conference, and isn’t as reliant on experience as the others. That’s how the Eagles were able to cover up a lot of inefficiencies. They were the least penalized team in the league, one of the least penalized teams in the country, and were third in the MAC in turnover differential. For the offense to figure out this transition, the task falls squarely on Creighton himself. After offensive coordinator Aaron Keen went back to his alma mater Washington University of St. Louis, Creighton named himself offensive coordinator. The hire I kind of like is quarterbacks coach Mike Piatkowski. He’s been a graduate assistant the past four years, first under Chris Creighton at Eastern Michigan, then the past two seasons at Indiana. He played for Creighton at Drake, and seems destined to be a coordinator, maybe after a full year of being a full staff member. They’ll have the pieces at receiver, particularly Dylan Drummond, who is poised for a breakout, but a dismal running game figures to be even worse without Shaq Vann. The defense looks strong up front, but the secondary, which allowed a 8.1 ypa, should get thrown on even more. If tMikey Haney takes a step forward from a surprisingly strong freshman campaign, the defensive line has a chance to be outstanding. He’s a Lucas County kid, that Eastern Michigan is fortunate Toledo didn’t want.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Dylan Drummond, Junior
WR	Quian Williams, Junior
C	Mike Van Hoeven, Senior
	.
DE	Turan Rush, Senior
DT	Mikey Haney, Sophomore
LB	Terry Myrick, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on February 20, 2020, 10:57:54 AM

#124 Rice Owls

#11 in Conference USA

Mike Bloomgren’s hire is looking more and more like horrible timing. Rice brought him in to attempt to be Stanford at the Group of Five level, after serving five years as Stanford’s offensive coordinator under Jim Harbaugh and then David Shaw. Well, Jim Harbaugh finally had to realize that the style of offense he succeeded with at Stanford, simply doesn’t work anymore, and brought in Josh Gattis to change things up; and David Shaw and Stanford just had their worst season since 2007, with an offense that ranked #74 in SP+. Granted, Rice would love to reach those heights, coming off a year where they finished with the 4th worst offense in the FBS. And in a system heavily reliant on offensive line play, the Owls had four all-conference linemen, but three of them were seniors. The Owls cycled through three quarterbacks a year ago, with the graduated Tom Stewart being the most effective. It seems like sophomore Wiley Green, and redshirt freshman JoVoni Johnson will battle this year for the starting spot. However, it was those two who played primarily through the first 9 games, when Rice went 0-9, averaging 14.9 points per game; before Stewart led them to a 3-0 finish, averaging 27.0 ppg. Granted the decision to turn to a graduating senior in November of an 0-9 season screams of a coach desperate just to save his job. It runs counter to what Bloomgren wants to do, but the Owls need to pass the ball more this year. A team that went 3-9, and struggled as much as they did running the ball, should be attempting just 26 passes a game. It helps that the best players on that side of the ball line up at receiver. On defense, there is plenty of returning experience for a unit that was very solid against the run, and did not draw penalties. They need to vastly improve against the pass after surrendering 8.3 ypa a year ago. You know defensive coordinator Brian Smith takes that personally, after being a starting defensive back on Massachusetts’ 1-AA national champion, coaching defensive backs under Don Brown at his alma mater, and then being hand picked when Brown went to Michigan. The Owls return 10 starters on defense, including the entire back seven, led by linebacker/safety hybrid Treshawn Chamberlain, who is listed as a SAM linebacker, but sort of plays like Jabrill Peppers, who Smith coached at Michigan. In the postseason Conference USA honors, he was recognized as a defensive back. As he moves into his junior season, after a full year as starter, if his instincts improve, he is just a flat playmaker.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Brad Rozner, Senior
WR	Austin Trammell, Senior
C	Shea Baker, Junior
	.
LB	Blaze Alldredge, Senior
LB	Antonio Montero, Junior
S	Treshawn Chamberlain, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 20, 2020, 11:37:11 AM

4 out of 12 TX teams in the bottom ten so far. Plus NMSU. ouch.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on February 22, 2020, 11:56:43 AM

#123 New Mexico Lobos

#12 in Mountain West

The Bob Davie era at New Mexico went full circle. He took over a complete dumpster fire from Mike Locksley, that had gone 3-33 over his three seasons, got them to a bowl by Year 4, and a division title in Year 5, the Lobos’ first since 1997 in the WAC. Instead of taking a step forward at that point, the program backslid, going 8-28 over 2017-2019, including just 2-22 in conference play. So the program is now in the hands of Danny Gonzales, who was hired back to his alma mater in December, at the age of 43, as his first head coaching job. He has spent the past three seasons as a defensive coordinator, 2017 with his former coach Rocky Long, at San Diego State, and the past two under Herm Edwards at Arizona State, where he was also associate head coach last season. But there is a lot of building to do here, which seems to be the trend in Albuquerque. Yes, if there is a coaching transition, it often means things are bad, but particularly at Group of Five schools, it means a coach got scooped up by a power conference school, and left a stocked cupboard. Every New Mexico coach seems to inherit a massive rebuild. Going back nine hires, to Rudy Feldman in 1968, the best season for any first year Lobo coach was 6-6 for Joe Lee Dunn in 1983, and even that was a significant step back from going 10-1 the previous year, which got Joe Morrison hired away by South Carolina. The plus for Gonzales is that Bob Davie began to transition away from the triple option over the past two years, so he doesn’t inherit a roster that just doesn’t fit. The downside is that that offense simply hasn’t worked, and the quarterback running it can’t stay healthy. Tevaka Tuitoti certainly looks the part, and has the arm. The issue is where the ball is going, a task for Jordan Salkin, who spent the past three years learning under Tom Herman, on Texas’ staff. Tuioti completed just 52.3% of his passes, lowest among the nine qualified passers in the Mountain West, with an interception every 32.5 attempts, second lowest among that group. That said, he only appeared in 8 complete games, and when he was out, his three backups combined for 44.9% completion rate, and an interception every 15 attempts. So it got a lot worse without him. Getting out to quicker starts is also going to be a focus for an offense that averaged just 4.2 ppg in the first quarter, that increased to 5.0 ppg in the second, 5.4 in the third, and 7.7 in the fourth. Granted, playing against backups helps there quite a bit too. But when, by average, you are down 14 points at halftime, you can see why their quarterbacks are forced to force things. Those large deficits did offer some relief to a secondary that struggled massively, surrendering 9.4 ypa, and 34 passing touchdowns, to just 4 interceptions. Linebacker Jacobi Hearn is easily the best player on that side of the ball.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Tevaka Tuioti, Junior
T	Teton Saltes, Senior
C	Kyle Stapley, Senior
	.
LB	Jacobi Hearn, Senior
S	Jerrick Reed II, Senior
P	Tyson Dyer, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 22, 2020, 01:51:57 PM

TX may have lost one third of their teams already, but NM says hold my beer. Both of their teams are now dead and burried in the Bottom Ten.

What will be the next state, with at least two teams, to get entirely eliminated?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on February 22, 2020, 01:59:56 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 22, 2020, 01:51:57 PM

What will be the next state, with at least two teams, to get entirely eliminated?

Colorado? Probably a state with only two teams that are not good. Arkansas? Kansas?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on February 22, 2020, 02:11:58 PM

#122 UTSA Roadrunners

#10 in Conference USA

The Roadrunners went 15-9 in their first two FBS seasons, including a second place divisional finish in their Conference USA debut in 2013. Since then, they have been unable to build on what Larry Coker started, and Frank Wilson is out after four years. In is former Arkansas running backs coach Jeff Traylor, who doesn’t even have any coordinator experience, let alone head coaching experience. The one upside is that he’s probably starting with a better running back than anything he had in the room in Fayetteville. True freshman Sincere McCormick stuck with UTSA after late Power Five offers from Colorado and Syracuse. McCormick proved to be worthy of those bigger offers, running for 983 yards on 5.6 ypc. Perhaps more impressive was the durability of the 18 year old, who had at least 12 carries in every game except one, and didn;t show any signs of wearing down over the course of the season, going for 119 yards on 17 carries (7.0 ypc) and 4 receptions, in the season finale against Louisiana Tech. Determining who starts under center looks to be a bigger challenge. UTSA used three quarterbacks last year, none of whom played very well, and while none graduated, none of them entered the transfer portal either. So as underwhelming as all three were, clearly none are scared that any of the others is particularly competent either. Beyond those three, there is Suddin Sapien, who redshirted last year as a true freshman. He’s never taken a college snap, but he is probably the most talented quarterback on the roster. The decision of tight end Carlos Strickland II to go pro a year early was a little curious. He was a solid Conference USA tight end, but ESPN doesn’t have him ranked among the top 25 tight end draft prospects, or the top 300 overall. When we are reading the UTSA 2021 preview we could be watching him in the XFL. They will get a full year out of Zakhari Franklin, who didn’t really emerge in his freshman season until the second half. He had 5 receptions for 30 yards and no touchdowns in the first six games, but 33 receptions for 461 yards and 3 touchdowns over the final six. Defensively, the secondary is where the focus needs to be. The Roadrunners had the second worst pass efficiency defense in Conference USA, and that was with a pretty strong pass rush. But that changed as the season progress, and teams just started getting the ball out quicker, and it worked. The pass rush, which had a sack rate near 7% over the first nine games, was just 1.77% over the final three, with no sacks in the finale against Louisiana Tech.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Sincere McCormick, Sophomore
WR	Zakhari Franklin, Sophomore
G	Spencer Burford, Junior
	.
DE	DeQuarius Henry, Senior
DT	Jaylon Haynes, Senior
S	Rashad Wisdom, Sophomore

#121 Akron Zips

#11 in MAC

It’s hard to believe, or at least hard to remember, that it was just 2017 when Akron was in Detroit, playing for a MAC Championship, and then began 2018 2-0, with a win over eventual Big Ten West champion Northwestern. Because since that game, the Zips have gone 2-20, and are presently on a 17 game losing streak. Akron entrusted the program to Tom Arth, more based on what he did in his 4 years at Division III John Carroll than his two subsequent years at FCS Chattanooga. Arth looked around and decided they weren’t winning in 2019, and he needed to build this thing up. It takes a new coach, with a lot of leash, at a desperate program, to take the long view that Arth did. He went very young, particularly on offense, and the results were predictable. The Zips averaged 3.7 yards per play, 1.8 yards per rush, and 10.5 points per game, each of which was the worst in the FBS. Their offensive SP+ of 7.7 wasn’t just the worst in the FBS, it was the worst since UMass in 2013. The question now is what amount of that is youth and what amount is lack of talent. Arth is betting on the former, because the Zips return the third highest percentage of their offensive production of any team in the FBS. As far as the latter goes, Akron did not exactly make a major impact on the recruiting trail. They did bring in former Indiana Hoosier Cole Gest from the transfer portal. Gest played quite a bit in 2017, with 511 scrimmage yards, but over the past two seasons combined, only played in five games. He’s immediately eligible though, and Akron will take whatever they can get after trying four different backs last year, none averaging more than 23 rushing yards per game or 3.4 ypc. Kato Nelson has plenty of experience, but at this point, you just have to settle for who he is, and accuracy is never going to come along. The defense was much better than the 36.3 ppg allowed, but the offense gave them no help. They allowed just 5.7 ypp, 4th best in the MAC, but they were on the field for 34 minutes per game, and forced the second fewest turnovers in the conference. If they can just basically get a repeat of their 2019 defense, but that creates a few more turnovers, and combine it with a serviceable offense, and there is the makings of a 3 or 4 win team. That’s a tough ceiling to swallow, for a team with a 3 year starter at quarterback. They do open with Youngstown State and New Mexico State, so it’s there for a confidence building start...before a trip to Clemson.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Kato Nelson, Senior
WR	Nate Stewart, Senior
WR	Jeremiah Knight, Junior
	.
DE	Dylan Meeks, Senior
LB	Bubba Arslanian, Junior
CB	Jordyn Riley, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 22, 2020, 02:16:48 PM

Well Ohio has officially entered the wood chipper. Texas has already lost its legs and is almost up to the crotch.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 22, 2020, 02:19:33 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 22, 2020, 01:59:56 PM

Colorado? Probably a state with only two teams that are not good. Arkansas? Kansas?

With that criteria in mind, put me down for Massachusetts.

Colorado is a triad, btw, but still in contention.

Who will be the first one team state?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on February 22, 2020, 02:52:19 PM

Umass and who? They probably aren't very good if I can't think of them.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 22, 2020, 02:54:58 PM

Boston College.

Come on now.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on February 22, 2020, 02:59:02 PM

OK, I now feel totally stupid and old. Who knew Boston College was in MA? Duh.

My goodness me.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 22, 2020, 03:05:18 PM

As for my prediction for the first mono-team state I will stay in New England and pick UConn.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on February 22, 2020, 06:04:42 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 22, 2020, 02:19:33 PM

With that criteria in mind, put me down for Massachusetts.

Colorado is a triad, btw, but still in contention.

Who will be the first one team state?

nebraska for obvious reasons??

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 22, 2020, 08:12:04 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 22, 2020, 02:19:33 PM

With that criteria in mind, put me down for Massachusetts.

Colorado is a triad, btw, but still in contention.

Who will be the first one team state?

Might have to change my vote to Nevada. Forgot about them. Two G5 teams with the best one having a similar record to BC? Not NM bad, but pretty bad nonetheless.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on February 23, 2020, 11:09:14 AM

#120 Liberty Flames

Independent

Danny Rocco and Turner Gill laid the foundation for a middling 1-AA independent program to eventually become an FBS school. The Flames joined the Big South in 2002, but went just 15-30 over their first four seasons. Rocco was hired in 2006, and in just his second season won a conference title, the first of 8 in 10 seasons for Liberty, with Turner Gill taking over in 2012, after Rocco left to take over at Richmond. Gill got them through their FBS transitional year, before handing it off to Hugh Freeze for their first year of full FBS membership and bowl eligibility. Freeze got the job done, going 8-5, including a Cure Bowl win over Georgia Southern. That was a senior laden team, playing a ton of awful opponents. They played a pair of FCS schools, New Mexico, New Mexico State...twice, Massachusetts and Buffalo for their wins. This year, they do again play two FCS opponents, but the overall schedule is much tougher. And the Flames boasted Phil Steele’s 1st team All-Independent running back and receiver, plus the second team quarterback...all of them are gone. The good news is that Liberty also had a second team running back, who does return, in Joshua Mack. Shedro Louis, who starred as a return man last year, could be a breakout star in a system that has plenty of carries to go around. Mack, as the #2 option a year ago, averaged over 10 carries a game, and that could give the explosive Louis plenty of touches to shine. Everything about the transfer portal seems custom designed for a coach like Freeze, and while he is getting an infusion of Power Five talent, the really interesting one is Maine grad transfer Chris Ferguson, who threw for over 5,000 yards with the Black Bears, and led them to the FCS semifinals in 2017. He almost certainly becomes the starter. But the highest pedigree talent comes in Ole Miss transfer offensive tackle Bryce Matthews, son of 11 year NFL offensive tackle Jason Matthews, who was a big time high school recruit, who chose Ole Miss over basically anyone else in the nation, including Alabama and Clemson. He certainly never lived up to those expectations, but at Liberty he should anchor an offensive line that was sneakily one of the better units in the FBS a year ago. Given the expected drop off offensively, Liberty needs a defense that underperformed a season ago to step up, and a lot of that hinges on an experienced defensive line. That group ranked #106 in line yards a year ago, and while they lose their best pass rusher from the group in Jesse Lemonier, they should be much better against the run, with the 315 Ralfs Rusins in the middle, and TreShaun Clark on the edge, coming off a surprising freshman season. The Flames were just #95 in the nation against the run last year, which, considering the schedule, ouch. But, while they allowed 4.8 ypc over the season, they were roughly 0.6 ypc better down the stretch. As Clark continues to mature, that should only improve.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Joshua Mack, Senior
RB	Shedro Louis, Sophomore
WR	D.J. Stubbs, Senior
	.
DE	TreShaun Clark, Sophomore
DT	Ralfs Rusins, Senior
CB	Javon Scruggs, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on February 24, 2020, 08:25:48 AM

#119 Northern Illinois Huskies

#10 in MAC

I don’t think anyone really questioned hiring Thomas Hammock to replace Rod Carey. Hammock played for Joe Novak when the program was first transitioning to what was then Division 1A. He spent nine years coaching in the Big Ten at Wisconsin and Minnesota, including being an associate head coach and running backs coach in Madison from 2011-2013, before spending 5 years as a running backs coach in the NFL. But year 1 did not go well, to the extent that the team’s best player, running back Tre Harbison sat out the season finale after announcing he was entering the transfer portal. Not just waiting the four games, to preserve your redshirt, literally just quitting on your team prior to the final game. It will be a tall task for Hammock in 2020 to avoid the program’s first consecutive bowl-less seasons since 2002 and 2003. And just to show how much the bar for bowl inclusion has lowered since then, the 2002 team went 8-4, and tied for a division title, and the 2003 team went 10-2, just neither got bowl invites. This is looking like their first consecutive losing seasons since 1998 and 1999, their third and fourth years in 1A. The one bit of good luck is that in an age where quarterbacks are hitting the transfer portal at the first sign they might not be the starter, Marcus Childers, who was the MAC Offensive Freshman of the Year in 2017, before struggling in 2018, and being replaced by Cal transfer Ross Bowers last year, has stuck with the program, and figures to be the starter again in 2020. The flip side to that, is that we haven’t seen the really good Childers since that freshman campaign, three years ago. From his freshman to his sophomore year, he saw his yards per attempt drop by 0.8, his interceptions double, and his sacks skyrocket from 1 per 14.7 pass attempts to 1 per 9.2 attempts. A lot of that was on him, taking way too long, and relying too much on his legs. I have a hard time seeing how a year spent being the change of pace quarterback changes that saw him get into 9 games, but wind up being the team’s second leading rusher. A pair of young cornerbacks helped stabilize the Huskies secondary, and now they will be counted on even more, due to the graduation of both starting safeties. Jalen McKie and Dillon Thomas took over as sophomores, and led a Northern Illinois pass defense that had allowed the third lowest completion percentage and yards per game in the MAC. Their coverage is great, now they’ve got to work on their hands. Northern Illinois had the third lowest interception rate in the FBS, with those starting cornerbacks combining for just 1. The do have a major difference maker on the line in Jack Heflin, who led the team in tackles for loss and sacks, despite not even being a starter. He was part of a lethal interior rotation last year, but the Huskies need to get a lot more out of their edge rushers.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Cole Tucker, Junior
TE	Mitchell Brinkman, Senior
K	John Richardson, Sophomore
	.
DT	Jack Heflin, Senior
LB	Vinny Labus, Junior
CB	Jalen McKie, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 24, 2020, 12:54:14 PM

Illinois would be a three team state in strong contention for a meager showing.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on February 24, 2020, 01:53:45 PM

I still think of NIU as being a "worth G5 program/opponent". When a normally good G5 program slips, I don't notice it.

UI might be somewhere in the 60s maybe along with NW, no? Let's GUESS

NIU #119 (not a guess)

NW #71

UI #65

That puts the state competitive for lowest 3 team rankings.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on February 25, 2020, 02:55:12 PM

#118 Toledo Rockets

#9 in MAC

I might get some flack for this one, but (and it feels off to say this about a MAC team), but you take the name off the jerseys and it gets a few less puzzled looks. Yes, Toledo went 6-6 last year, but after a solid start, that including pushing Kentucky, and beating BYU, they were a complete and total dumpster fire down the stretch. They finished 2-5, with the wins being an overtime win over Eastern Michigan and a 2 point win over Kent State. The losses included a 13 point loss to 3-9 Bowling Green, a 38 point loss to 5-7 Ball State, a 3 point loss to 5-7 Northern Illinois, a 19 point loss to Buffalo and a 42 point loss to Toledo. Over their final 7 games they were outscored in regulation by an average of 16 points per game, while playing 5 teams that finished under .500. The injury to starting quarterback Mitchell Guagdani didn’t help, but he’s graduated now anyway, and Eli Peters, who quarterbacked the team down the stretch is likely the starter. The real issue though is the defense, which was absolutely abysmal last year during their second half collapse. The Rockets allowed 6.8 ypp in MAC play last year, which was second worst in the conference. Bowling Green’s complete disregard for defense allows everyone buffer, but Toledo was a long ways away from the #10 defense. The gap in ypp between Toledo and the #10 ranked defense was more than the gap between #10 and #4. The main problem was in the back seven, that did nothing to slow down opponents passing attacks. On the season, they allowed 8.5 ypa through the air, but, like most things, that deteriorated as the season went on. They allowed a MAC worst 8.8 ypa in conference play, including 9.1 ypa over the final quarter of the season, and 12.0 ypa in the finale against Central Michigan. Granted, as bad as the secondary was, they were given no help by a front that tallied the tenth lowest sack rate in the FBS, and, again, got even worse down the stretch, failing to record a single sack over the final month of the season. They do return 70% of their defensive production, but exactly how much production was that? Hopefully Notre Dame transfer outside linebacker Jonathan Jones, who is immediately eligible, provides a little bit of a boost there. What makes this a wildcard pick is that Toledo generally recruits better than any school in the MAC. The Rockets just hauled in their fourth consecutive top ranked class in the MAC. So, while there were tons of issues in the second half of last year, with no obvious solutions in sight, Toledo should have the most talent, in terms of STARZ power, of any MAC team.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Bryant Koback, Junior
WR	Bryce Mitchell, Senior
G	Nick Rosi, Sophomore
	.
DE	Jamal Hines, Junior
S	Saeed Holt, Junior
S	Tycen Anderson, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 25, 2020, 04:14:27 PM

And just like that Ohio is a quarter of the way down the plank.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on February 25, 2020, 05:59:58 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 25, 2020, 04:14:27 PM

And just like that Ohio is a quarter of the way down the plank.

It's interesting, to me, how you track this, sort of fun. And why not? I was thinking that my state has Georgia State and Georgia Southern and Kennesaw State. They should all crap up fairly soon along with that other team.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on February 26, 2020, 12:36:40 PM

#117 San Jose State Spartans

#11 in Mountain West

I didn’t think I’d ever be writing that San Jose State fans need to hope that their incoming SEC grad transfer quarterback is anywhere close to what they had in a departing senior. But that departed senior was 2019 Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year Josh Love, the first Spartan to win a conference offensive player of the year award, going back at least to San Jose State’s move from the Big West to the WAC in 1996. And that incoming transfer is Nick Starkel, who is now on his third school in three years. He left Texas A&M for Arkansas after getting passed by Kellen Mond then left Arkansas after getting passed over there. The humorous part about San Jose State even wanting him is that Jordon Love threw for over 400 yards in a stunning upset of the Razorbacks, in Fayetteville, thanks in large part to Nick Starkel throwing 5 interceptions. He will get plenty of chances to throw the ball all over the play, thanks to a pair of returning all conference receivers, and an offensive system that doesn’t want to run, with personnel that can’t run. The Spartans ran the ball 24.6 times per game last year, 36.1% of their plays. Only Mike Leach was more run averse. It helps to play behind an elite pass blocking line, that only surrendered 14 sacks on the season. Only Air Force gave up fewer among conference teams, and they passed the ball 9.7 times per game, as opposed to 41.5. The Spartans had the second lowest sack rate in the FBS, at just 2.71%, with 29% of their sacks coming in their season ending comeback win over Fresno State. Starting left tackle Jack Snyder is back, but right tackle Quinn Oseland, and all-Mountain West guard Troy Kowalski, and their top rotational tackle and guard all graduated. Even with all of those in play last year, and an upset win in their payday SEC game, San Jose State still didn’t make it to a bowl, thanks to surrendering a 70 yard drive to UNLV in just 94 seconds, in the final 3 minutes of the game. So it’s tough to see a path there this year, particularly with Penn State replacing Arkansas as their bodybag game, and trips to Boise State, Fresno State, and San Diego State among their conference slate. The defense, which was great against the pass, but awful against the run last year, figures to be the same, as they struggle to win in the trenches with their 3-4. You can’t pull that off without a nose tackle, and starter Sailosi Latu graduated, with the two guys behind him on the depth chart, Demanuel Talauati and Terrell Townsend, both entering the transfer portal. San Jose State gave up 232 rushing ypg, on 4.8 ypc a year ago, thanks to opponents running the ball 48.2 times per game against them. Considering how weak San Jose State looks to be again at the point of attack, I’d plan on more of the same.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Tre Walker, Senior
WR	Bailey Gaither, Senior
T	Jack Snyder, Senior
	.
LB	Kyle Harmon, Junior
LB	Rico Tolefree, Junior
S	Jay Lenard, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 26, 2020, 05:50:22 PM

Cali cheats by simply dropping football as a sport if the school isn't any good.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: fezzador on February 27, 2020, 08:23:13 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 25, 2020, 05:59:58 PM

It's interesting, to me, how you track this, sort of fun. And why not? I was thinking that my state has Georgia State and Georgia Southern and Kennesaw State. They should all crap up fairly soon along with that other team.

Auburn? Methinks you'll be waiting a while.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2020, 09:23:19 AM

Auburn? I don't think they are in the state of Georgia.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: fezzador on February 27, 2020, 10:42:59 AM

Twas a joke, sorta.

They recruit like it's in-state, the fanbase in GA is substantial, the only thing is the campus is about 30 miles too far to the west.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2020, 10:58:39 AM

Yeah, I figured, Clemson is almost the same situation, just on the other side of the state. Clemson could not be as good as they are without GA HC football.

I'm not really sure why GA became such a fertile recruiting ground. There are some obvious reasons like population growth, and the money put into HS football here is significant. But the state produces more talent than you'd probably think based on population.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: fezzador on February 27, 2020, 01:44:36 PM

It wasn't that long ago when GA and NC weren't all that much bigger than AL, LA, and SC. They were maybe 30-40% larger back in 1990, but now they're twice as big.

And speaking of GA and NC, they have been neck-and-neck population-wise for a good long while. It's interesting to note that despite these similarities, NC isn't anywhere near the recruiting hotbed Georgia is (in fact, it probably takes a backseat to states like LA, MS, AL, and SC). It's probably due to the fact that football isn't as emphasized in NC (it's all about pingpong on hardwood there) while in GA it's football first, second, and third. That said, GA is no slouch in high school hoops, but it's clearly not as good as NC (and lots of HS hotshots in GA go to ACC schools anyway).

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 27, 2020, 01:56:54 PM

Quote from: fezzador on February 27, 2020, 01:44:36 PM

It wasn't that long ago when GA and NC weren't all that much bigger than AL, LA, and SC. They were maybe 30-40% larger back in 1990, but now they're twice as big.

And speaking of GA and NC, they have been neck-and-neck population-wise for a good long while. It's interesting to note that despite these similarities, NC isn't anywhere near the recruiting hotbed Georgia is (in fact, it probably takes a backseat to states like LA, MS, AL, and SC). It's probably due to the fact that football isn't as emphasized in NC (it's all about pingpong on hardwood there) while in GA it's football first, second, and third. That said, GA is no slouch in high school hoops, but it's clearly not as good as NC (and lots of HS hotshots in GA go to ACC schools anyway).

Hmm... I wonder if generational data would explain it...

Population-wise, were they driven by young professionals flooding the state 15-20 years ago to raise their families, and now there's a glut of school-age children that weren't there before? Where both GA and NC have an advantage over the other southern states is having very large metro areas with jobs, but also having very low cost of living compared to NY/DC/Chicago/CA/PacNW.

Georgia is near the bottom when you look at states ranked by median age: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_median_age (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_median_age)

That might suggest that Georgia's population growth is skewed such that the youth population grew even faster than the overall state population, and might explain why it became a hotbed of athletic talent. More kids = more potential top-level athletes.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2020, 02:17:17 PM

And a ton of money started flowing circa 1980 into HS and preHS football programs as well. The state was quite poor circa 1960, and education in general was generally very bad, or at least not well supported by tax monies. I was in HS circa 1970 in what was supposed to be the top county system in the state and it was "so-so" I'd say. We did have a new HS building (since replaced). The facilities today of course are far better than what we had. The football practice field was just dirt. The track was cinders.

The baseball field was pretty decent.

I think today a lot of kids get started young with decent coaching and facilities and the best athletes stay with football.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: fezzador on February 27, 2020, 02:59:12 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on February 27, 2020, 01:56:54 PM

Hmm... I wonder if generational data would explain it...

Population-wise, were they driven by young professionals flooding the state 15-20 years ago to raise their families, and now there's a glut of school-age children that weren't there before? Where both GA and NC have an advantage over the other southern states is having very large metro areas with jobs, but also having very low cost of living compared to NY/DC/Chicago/CA/PacNW.

Georgia is near the bottom when you look at states ranked by median age: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_median_age (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_median_age)

That might suggest that Georgia's population growth is skewed such that the youth population grew even faster than the overall state population, and might explain why it became a hotbed of athletic talent. More kids = more potential top-level athletes.

The state right underneath Georgia is one of the 5 oldest. Hmm.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on February 27, 2020, 03:27:31 PM

Quote from: fezzador on February 27, 2020, 02:59:12 PM

The state right underneath Georgia is one of the 5 oldest. Hmm.

It's where old people go to die.

It also has a lot of top football recruits, but given that it is the third most populous state in the US, sheer population explains it.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on February 27, 2020, 05:39:50 PM

catching rabbits with your bare hands while running barefoot doesn't hurt

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on February 27, 2020, 07:24:32 PM

#116 Army Black Knights

Independent

f Army wasn’t “ARMY” (although a lot of vets I know actually hate the reverence given to the military academies’ football teams, but that’s another discussion), you would have seen them take a lot more heat last year. Seen as a fringe Top 25 team last year, that was a September upset of Michigan away from being a real New Years Six contender, the Black Knights could not have fallen flatter on their face. Early on, things seemed fine, they very nearly did pull that upset, taking the Wolverines to double overtime, and being otherwise undefeated entering October. From there on out, Army lost 7 of their final 9 games, with the wins coming over 1-11 Massachusetts and FCS VMI. It’s not like any of the losses were against particularly remarkable opponents either, with easily best being the season ending 31-7 drubbing at the hands of Navy, which put an end to Army’s three game winning streak in the series, the academy’s longest since winning 5 in a row from 1992-1996. Teams focused on making sure quarterback Kelvin Hopkins Jr. wouldn’t beat them with his legs, and the offense just sort of crumbled around that. He was nearly as effective when he did keep the ball as he had been in 2018, but on 70 fewer carries, and nobody else picked up the slack. The result was a drop of nearly 50 rushing yards per game from 2018, and his passing was thus, much less effective as well, seeing a 12% drop in completion rate, and a nasty 3.5 ypa drop, while his interception rate more than doubled. That said, he was a three year starter in the system that now needs to be replaced. Hopkins’ backups are not exactly inexperienced, with both Jabari Laws and Christian Anderson seeing action in over half the games last year. Laws is certainly the more intriguing of the two, getting into nine games, primarily as a running option. He did complete 16 of 20 passes for 311 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions, while also running for 520 yards on 6.4 ypc, second best on the team. Don’t be shocked to see whoever isn’t the starting quarterback gets plenty of action in a backfield that loses two of its three top ball carriers in a system that still ran the ball 83.1% of the time (third most in the FBS) even while struggling to a 5-8 season. The defense looks to be in worse shape though, returning only two major contributors from a defense that began the season well enough, but faded down the stretch. Perhaps no stat was a more telling contributor to the Black Knights’ trouble than their third down defense, which ranked 2nd in the FBS in 2018, and spiraled down to #117 last year. While Army is generally not lacking for leadership, to be a two-time captain at West Point, says something about the hole that Cole Christiansen, who Phil Steele also named as a two-time All-Independent First team linebacker will leave behind.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Sandon McCoy, Senior
WR	Camden Harrison, Senior
C	J.B. Hunter, Senior
	.
DE	Edrice Patterson, Senior
LB	Arik Smith, Junior
P	Zach Harding, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on February 28, 2020, 07:43:21 AM

Quote from: bwarbiany on February 27, 2020, 03:27:31 PM

It also has a lot of top football recruits, but given that it is the third most populous state in the US, sheer population explains it.

Population is a factor of course, but clearly not the sole factor (NY). Florida has those football academies which attract good players from other states who want to specialize in football (and probably carry the minimum classwork to be eligible).

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on February 28, 2020, 10:06:45 AM

#115 Old Dominion Monarchs

#9 in Conference USA

Everything about the Old Dominion program build seemed to be lining up. They are in a fertile recruiting area, by 2011, in Year 3 of the program, they were a Top 10 FCS team, rising to #3 in 2012. They went .500 in their FBS debut in 2014, and by 2016, went 10-3, won a bowl game, and shared a division title. I firmly believed they were going to become the top program in Conference USA for a stretch run. Instead, they quickly went the other way, going 5-7 in 2017, 4-8 in 2018, and 1-11 in 2019. The school enters 2020 on an 11 game losing streak, and overall, 2-16 against FBS opponents since their stunning upset of #13 Virginia Tech on September 13, 2018. The result was a separation from head coach Bobby Wilder, who had been the only head coach the program had known since their 2009 resurrection. As an odd bit of trivia, the school has only had two head coaches in program history. The Monarchs existed from 1930-1940 under head coach Tommy Scott, then shut down for 69 years, and have had Bobby Wilder from 2009-2019. The new head coach is former Penn State offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne. It’s Rahne’s first head coaching job, stepping out from under James Franklin’s shadow. Franklin initially hired Rahne as a graduate assistant at Kansas State, when Franklin took the offensive coordinator job in 2006; where he stayed until Franklin hired him as quarterbacks coach at Vanderbilt in 2011, then took Rahne with him to Happy Valley in 2014. Simply said, a 1-11 Group of Five team hiring a helmet school coordinator sounds pretty good. Hell, a Power Five school could typically make that hire. But looking a little deeper is slightly problematic. First, Rahne was quarterbacks coach at Penn State in 2014 and 2015, when Christian Hackenburg failed to develop, and Franklin was on the verge of getting fired. It wasn’t until Joe Moorehead came in as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach that things turned around. Then, when Moorehead left, despite quarterback Trace McSorley remaining, the Nittany Lions’ offensive S&P+ fell from #5 to #36, and on passing plays (to eliminate the Saquon Barkley factor), fell from #10 to #64. I think there’s a solid chance Rahne wasn’t going to be Penn State’s offensive coordinator next year, even if Old Dominion hadn’t thrown him a life raft. Then, you look at how Joe Moorehead did at Mississippi State, and if Rahne was the lesser version of him...well… Then again, the role of a head coach is different from the role of a coordinator position coach, so maybe this is something he’ll be better at, but based on his credentials, all you can really point to is that James Franklin seems to love him. He’ll have plenty of work to do with this offense, that averaged just 16.2 ppg on 4.1 ypp, both worst in the conference, and 5th and 2nd lowest in the FBS respectively. There’s really nothing to lean on there, as the Monarchs were awful both running and passing the ball, with just 2.7 ypc rushing and 5.6 ypa passing. There might be a solution in redshirt freshman Hayden Wolff, after Stone Smartt and Michigan State transfer Messiah deWeaver struggled through most of the season. Wolff started three games in November, which allowed him to still preserve his redshirt. He completed 58.1% of his passes, compared to 53.3% for the other two and 245 ypg compared to 146; and an interception per 43 attempts, compared to 30.5. Defensively, Blake Seiler has a lot to work with. Eight returning starters, including four all-conference players, from a unit that was actually decent last year.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Hayden Wolff, Freshman
RB	Lala Davis, Sophomore
C	Isaac Weaver, Senior
	.
DE	Keion White, Junior
LB	Lawrence Garner, Senior
CB	Kaleb Ford-Dement, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: rolltidefan on February 28, 2020, 12:19:40 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on February 27, 2020, 09:23:19 AM

Auburn? I don't think they are in the state of Georgia.

sure it is

(https://external-preview.redd.it/NL4WoSiDJx1thGJXABHANlibt-nlDsn2ynyOBBJzawM.jpg?auto=webp&s=f51aa658eb33dc743e8c95dafd24f1ef61f209e1)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on February 28, 2020, 12:32:32 PM

Huh. There is a small town there called Auburn interestingly enough.

https://www.cityofauburn-ga.org/ (https://www.cityofauburn-ga.org/)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on February 28, 2020, 02:42:07 PM

also, a town named Auburn in Washington st, Indiana, Cali, Maine, New York, and Massachusetts

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on February 29, 2020, 11:04:19 PM

#114 South Alabama Jaguars

#9 in Sun Belt

It’s been hard enough trying to gain traction as a new program, that spent just one year in the FCS, before making the jump, but the transfer portal is not doing them any favors. Fourteen Jaguars have put their names into the portal, including Cephus Johnson, who I brought up last year as a rising sophomore quarterback, who looked to be a future potential star. He was benched midway through the year, after struggling with accuracy issues, and replaced with redshirt freshman Desmond Trotter. While Johnson was dead last among FBS quarterbacks in Total QBR, it still is hard to build a program with this kind of turnover. So, fully aware that I used this write up last year to tout what turned out to be the worst starting quarterback in the FBS, Trotter certainly looked the part, once the job became his in November. He capped it with a 20 for 31, 279 yard, 4 touchdown, 1 interception, 58 rushing yard win over Arkansas State in the season finale. This is particularly good news for receiver Kawann Baker, who was honorable mention All-Sun Belt last year, but seemed to be really unlocked by Trotter. He had a pair of 75 yard catch and runs in the eight games Johnson started, but otherwise became a more consistent threat with Trotter. For the defense, which was very solid for a 2-10 team last year, to maintain their 2019 standard, they will lean heavily on what could be a very, very good group of linebackers. The problem is everything around them. As solid as that group was against the run last year, they do need to take a major step forward as far as creating big plays. The Jaguars had the second lowest sack rate in the Sun Belt a year ago, and over half of them were tallied by a pair of graduated defensive linemen. They also had the second lowest number of turnovers forced. One solution there might be Devin Rockette, who was a rotational cornerback a year ago, but seemed to have a nose for the football. If he can cover well enough to stay on the field more consistently, that should be a boost. Because last year showed that even if the defense is very solid, that’s not going to be enough with an offense that struggles as much as this one did. While I’m optimistic that they should be at least enough better offensively with Trotter to counteract the losses on the defensive line and secondary; we saw that a net neutral just ends in a 2-10 season. It’s tough to see any way this defense can play any more solidly this year, but they can find those ways to set up their offense better. But God help them if they have any injury issues at all.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Desmond Trotter, Sophomore
WR	Kawann Baker, Senior
T	Jacob Shoemaker, Senior
	.
LB	Riley Cole, Senior
LB	Nick Mobley, Junior
LB	A.J. DeShazor, Junior

#113 Bowling Green Falcons

#8 in MAC

I was highly critical last year of the Bowling Green athletic department’s decision to make a philosophical change, in hiring a Texas high school coach, to attempt to work a Texas pipeline, and then fire him midway through his third season. You didn’t hire Mike Jinks to be a quick fix; you hired him for his knowledge and ability to recruit, a new pocket of talent, and then kicked him out before any of his recruits began to matriculate up the depth chart. Year 1 of the Scott Loeffler tenure didn’t do anything to change my mind, although, maybe Jinks’ recruits simply weren’t that good. Bowling Green’s 3-9 record (which obviously isn’t great) actually didn’t tell the full story of just how bad they were. They beat a 3-9 FCS team (Morgan State), the worst team in the FBS (Akron)...and then somehow Toledo. In their 9 losses they weren’t even competitive, falling by an average of 39.7 ppg. An 18 point loss to Western Michigan and a 28 point loss to Louisiana Tech were the only losses by less than 40 points. While both Akron and Massachusetts had lower overall SP+ ratings, only Bowling Green ranked in the bottom 20 of the FBS in offense (#128), defense (#124) AND special teams (#130). So why the reason for optimism? A little bit of faith in the guys Jinks brought in, and a little bit of consistency. It also helps if it turns out Grant Loy wasn’t actually their best quarterback. Loy appeared in all 12 games, starting the final seven, but announced he was entering the transfer portal, even though Darius Wade, who started the other five games, graduated. The likely new starter will be a true freshman, either Tucker Melton or Riley Keller, both 3* recruits from a really good first effort in Scott Loeffler’s first full recruiting class. The Falcons’ class ranked #85 overall and #2 in the MAC, based on 247 composite, which is their second highest overall ranking ever in the 247 era, and tied for their best ranking within the MAC. The aforesaid Melton, along with cornerback Deshawn Jones from Akron and defensive end Billie Roberts all rank among the top 10 recruits Bowling Green during that 19 year period. Both players had Big Ten offers, and have a chance to contribute right away, particularly Jones, in a secondary that was the only position room hit hard by the transfer portal. Even without that, he adds a much needed talent boost to a pass defense that surrendered 9.3 ypa and an opposing passer rating of 168.2, both of which were third worst in the FBS. Back to the offense, whoever wins the quarterback job, does have some skill positions players to work with. Quintin Morris, listed as a receiver, but who plays more of a tight end role, is there most consistent target; but redshirt sophomore Julian Ortega-Jones, one of the Texas recruiting payoffs, has the most upside, and is their big play threat.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Bryson Denley, Senior
WR	Quintin Morris, Senior
WR	Julian Ortega-Jones, Sophomore
	.
DE	Karl Brooks, Junior
LB	Kholbe Coleman, Senior
LB	Jerry Roberts, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 01, 2020, 09:56:40 AM

Ohio has essentially caught up to TX. 5/12 is technically still > 3/8. But just barely. Both are just one team away from the 50% threshold.

At this rate we might not see a team from either State crack the top 100. O0

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 02, 2020, 06:46:18 PM

Sunday and Monday

#112 Massachusetts Minutemen

Independent

The transition from the 2018 team, that underachieved relative to its talent, to 2019, was going to be heavy no matter what. That’s why making a coaching change away from Mark Whipple made a lot of sense. Walt Bell, a noted big time recruiter, also hit the transfer portal hard, bringing in guys from Penn State, Notre Dame and West Virginia. After a miserable season, in which UMass won just one game, the battle for the FBS basement against Akron, the transfer portal only went one way out of Amherst, with 13 players already leaving. Is that a sign of a changing culture? Mark Whipple has always had a good offensive mind, you can credit him for how Ben Roethlisberger’s early career took off. But he was also a 62 year old man, in his second go round with the school, and I don’t think he was running a cutthroat program, or killing it on the recruiting trail. Bell is the opposite of all of that, and that probably is not what Whipple’s signees valued when they committed. I was skeptical about how Bell’s strengths would translate to a school like UMass, and compared it to Mike Locksley going to New Mexico. This year, rather than the transfer portal to get the quick talent infusion, Bell looked to different means, taking 4 JUCO players (Including the #9 JUCO quarterback), 2 prep school kids, and a defensive end from Germany. The Minutemen used three different starting quarterbacks last year, but only Andrew Brito returns in 2020. Brito saw the most action of the three, but averaged just 4.88 ypa, second worst in the FBS among qualified passers. So to say JUCO transfer Kyle Lindquist is in the mix is an understatement. Bell thought he at least had one offensive stud returning in Bilal Ally, who averaged 5.1 ypc, despite playing behind an offensive line that was decent in pass blocking but was abysmal in every run blocking metric. For comparison the team otherwise averaged 2.4 ypc. But Ally put his name in the transfer portal, and while he hasn’t committed anywhere else, those things rarely turn around. Hope there comes in a pair of early enrolees. Ellis Merriweather from Garden City Community College and Jared Cole, from Ashburn, Virginia, for the nucleus of a potentially decent thunder-lightning combination. Merriweather was rated as the #14 JUCO running back, and Cole was the #33 all-purpose back. Won’t mean much if the interior line doesn’t get better, and considering Bell started four underclassmen on the line, including a pair of true freshmen last year, it should. There may also be push from guard Aaron Beckwith, UMass’ highest rated high school recruit. Bell needs the newcomers to contribute immediately, because while he did not shy away from starting youth last year, most of the production came from guys who are now gone. The one exception is at receiver, led by breakout freshman O.C. Johnson Jr., who led the team in receiving, but hit a late freshman wall. His game log is amazing. He had 4 receptions for -15 yards over the final three games. Three of his four receptions lost yardage.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Andrew Brito, Junior
WR	O.C. Johnson Jr., Sophomore
T	Larnel Coleman, Senior
	.
LB	Chinedu Ogbonna, Senior
LB	Cole McCubey, Senior
LB	Mike Ruang, Senior

#111 UNLV Rebels

#10 in Mountain West

At least geographically Tony Sanchez made some sense, after going 85-5 in six seasons at Bishop Gorman and winning six state titles. But...much like I just discussed with Walt Bell, a mid-major going after a coach for his high level recruiting makes little sense. No high end recruit is saying no to Clemson or Georgia or USC to go to New Mexico or UMass or UNLV, at least not enough, and access to those high end recruits was the biggest selling point for those coaches. That said, Sanchez had finally delivered, securing not only easily his best class, but the school’s highest rated class in the 247 era. It’s headlined by linebacker Brennon Scott, the school’s highest rated recruit since 2006, who did, in fact choose the Rebels over schools such as USC, Florida, Georgia and Texas. But, on the other side, maybe now is the perfect time to cash in on the improved roster with a better coach. That hopefully better coach is Marcus Arroyo, who has never been a head coach, but certainly knows the west coast football landscape. He played at San Jose State, then his coaching career has included 5 years at his alma mater, 2 years at Wyoming, 2 years at Cal, and the last three as offensive coordinator at Oregon. The downfall of the Rebels in 2019 was sorting out the quarterback room. Armani Rogers, who looked so promising as a freshman in 2017, continued his career downward trajectory, and was eventually benched in favor of true freshman Kenyon Oblad. Oblad improved dramatically as the season progress, and had the best game of the season in the finale, an overtime win over rival Nevada, where he completed 73% of his passes, with 3 touchdowns and no interceptions. That gave the Rebels their first back to back wins over Nevada since winning five straight from 2000-2004. But UNLV also added TCU transfer Justin Rogers. So from budding star as a rising sophomore to a third string quarterback as a senior is how Armani Rogers’ career has gone. It seems likely that it will either be Oblad or Justin Rogers winning the starting job. Rogers just announced his transfer destination in late January, when Arroyo was well aware of what he was inheriting. So that would suggest, in spite of the flashes he showed, Oblad has an uphill battle ahead of him. The one gift that Arroyo did inherit was a treasure trove of returning skill positions to surround whoever wins the quarterback battle with, led running back Charles Williams. Williams’ decision to return for his senior year, to run behind an offensive line that returns both starting tackles, to bookend all-conference guard Julio Garcia, after finishing second in the Mountain West in rushing yards per game, rushing touchdowns and yards per carry was surprising. That goes with a deep stable of receivers and tight ends that returns 17 of 18 players (including some running backs, and one defensive back in a trick play) who caught a pass last year. That’s why Bill Connolly ranks UNLV as having the most returning production in the conference (80%), and top 20 nationally. So why so low? Because by that same metric, the Rebels return just 29% of their defensive production, second worst in the FBS. The only school with less returning defensive production is Utah. The Utes were a senior-laden elite defense last year. UNLV finished #11 in the Mountain West in both points and yards per play allowed, ahead of only New Mexico. And now new defensive coordinator Peter Hansen gets to figure out how to coach their backups.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Charles Williams, Senior
WR	Randal Grimes, Junior
G	Julio Garcia, Senior
	.
LB	Farrell Hester II, Senior
S	Bryce Jackson, Junior
S	Greg Francis, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on March 03, 2020, 12:47:34 AM

Quote from: FearlessF on February 28, 2020, 02:42:07 PM

also, a town named Auburn in Washington st, Indiana, Cali, Maine, New York, and Massachusetts

Auburn automobiles were made in Auburn, IN.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on March 03, 2020, 06:03:05 AM

I kind of chuckle a bit thinking about the names Chevrolet and Cadillac being considered "American". The wife used to pronounce it "Caddy-Ack" when we had one.

I liked that car quite a bit, the ride was surprisingly firm and it was really too big for driving much in city traffic.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on March 03, 2020, 10:58:22 AM

Dude, that wasn't a big car

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 03, 2020, 11:40:46 AM

At least it stayed on the road...unlike this thread

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 03, 2020, 12:18:40 PM

#110 Troy Trojans

#8 in Sun Belt

After building Troy (then Troy State) up from a 1-AA team to winning five consecutive Sun Belt Conference titles from 2006-2010, Larry Blakeley let the program backslide immediately into five consecutive bowl-less seasons from 2011-2015. Neal Brown got things turned around in short order winning 10 games by his second season, and winning a conference title in his third, going 31-8 overall, 20-4 in the Sun Belt over his final three years. But it also looks like he knew when to get out. Expectations were high last year for a Trojan team that returned several starters from teams that won at LSU in 2017 and at Nebraska in 2018. The only obstacle appeared to be being in the same division as Appalachian State. Not even close. Troy went 5-7, beating an FCS team, and three teams that we’ve already covered here. Far from beating a Power Five team for the third consecutive year, they got blown out 42-10 by Missouri, in a game that wasn’t even that close. The Tigers led 42-3 at halftime, and shut it down. While in 2018, Troy missed out on a conference title game birth, and a rematch against a Louisiana team they had already beaten, by a tiebreaker; in 2019, they closed the season by losing to the two Sun Belt Championship Game contenders by a combined score of 101-16, scoring one touchdown. A lot of the hope was based on a returning senior starter quarterback in Caleb Barker. And he didn’t disappoint, being named 1st team all-conference, and leading the conference in passing. So it’s tough to imagine getting much better. Gunnar Watson is the only returnee with experience, but the competition will be deep. You have incoming freshman Kyle Toole; Gavin Screws, who redshirted last year; and three transfers, Jacob Cendoya from Ole Miss, Jacob Free from Vanderbilt and Parker McNeil from the JUCO ranks. If Chip Lindsey is able to mine the transfers ranks for quarterback as well as he did receiver though, this will be a quick turnaround. The Trojans had three JUCO transfer receivers be named all-conference, led by Sun Belt newcomer of the year Kaylon Geiger. Assuming the quarterback situation gets at least somewhat figured out, there is no reason to think we’ll see a dip from Troy’s 57.3% passing rate a year ago, most in the Sun Belt. The Trojans return less production than almost anyone in the FBS, but what proven talent they have, is at wideout. The defense has a few more familiar faces, but the secondary is an absolute mess. Troy allowed 276.3 ypg through the air, worst in the Sun Belt, on 8.4 ypa and 66.5% completion percentage, both second worst. Some of the other metrics that could contribute actually look ok there. Troy was third in the Sun Belt in both sacks and interceptions, but you simply can’t let quarterbacks complete 2/3 of their passes, sixth worst mark in the FBS.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Kaylon Geiger, Senior
WR	Reggie Todd, Senior
T	Austin Stidham, Senior
	.
DT	Will Choloh, Junior
LB	Carlton Martial, Junior
S	Dell Pettus, Sophomore

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on March 03, 2020, 04:57:19 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on March 03, 2020, 12:47:34 AM

Auburn automobiles were made in Auburn, IN.

There is an Auburn/Cord/Duesenberg Museum there today. I have never been there but I would like to visit someday.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on March 03, 2020, 05:00:02 PM

Quote from: bwarbiany on February 27, 2020, 03:27:31 PM

It's where old people go to die.

It also has a lot of top football recruits, but given that it is the third most populous state in the US, sheer population explains it.

Florida is definitely an unusual case. Generally states with stable or declining populations are older while states with rapidly growing populations are younger. Florida is unusual in that they are growing rapidly and yet they are older due to the vast number of retirees.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 04, 2020, 09:30:22 AM

#109 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

#8 in Conference USA

A big step backwards after losing the best quarterback in school history, in Brent Stockstill was to be expected, but the Blue Raider offense actually held it together fine, with a Conference USA best 6.36 ypp. They changed up the way they played a bit, shifting from the #34 most pass happy team in 2018, down to #56 in 2019. That was fueled by Conference USA’s top rated run offense, which piled up 5.1 ypc. They also slowed way down, dropping from 73.5 plays per game, down to just 66.3, which was a drop from #53 to #114. And they relied on the conference’s best pair of tackles to help keep their quarterback upright, and their sack rate dropped from 7.57% (#88 in FBS) to 5.34% (#45). So while the Middle Tennessee offense stayed just about equally productive, it looked entirely different, as a more risk averse, offensive line dependent unit, that relied upon a quarterback who was a rushing threat, as opposed to a cannon arm. Because of that, a team that returned as little production as anyone last year, managed to go a respectable 3-5 in conference play. Yes, they went 1-3 out of conference, but maybe don’t schedule Michigan, Iowa and Duke, all in September. Quarterback Asher O’Hara might want to run slightly less this year. He led the team in both rushing attempts (199) and rushing yards (1,058), with no other player tallying more than 52 and 290. Chaton Mobley got the most carries of any running back, with 52, but was largely ineffective. Terelle West was the more effective, but was a situational back, and has graduated. Fortunately help has arrived in the form of a pair of Power Five transfers, being Martell Pettaway from West Virginia and Amir Rasul from Florida State. Amir Rasul had the higher recruiting profile, but barely saw the field in Tallahassee. Pettaway seemed primed for a breakout 2019, after tallying 623 yards and 6 touchdowns on 6.4 ypc in Morgantown in 2018. But his 2019 got off to a bad start for a Mountaineer team that had the worst run game in the Power Five. Either way, they should provide some much needed help for O’Hara. As fun as O’Hara was to watch, he needed to be, because the defense wasn’t stopping anyone. The pass defense was particularly bad, allowing 7.7 ypa, second worst in the conference, on a conference high 65.3% completion rate. But the problem was not necessarily solely on the secondary, because the pass rush generated absolutely nothing, a league worst 11 sacks, with a 2.81% sack rate, second worst in the FBS. The news on returning talent is both good and bad. The Blue Raiders graduated six seniors from that group, 49% of their production, but how much production was even there? The result will likely be a team that ranked 42 spots higher in offensive SP+ than defensive a year ago, will likely see that spread grow.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Asher O'Hara, Junior
T	Will Gilchrist, Senior
T	Robert Jones, Senior
	.
LB	D.Q. Thomas, Senior
S	Reed Blankenship, Senior
S	Kylan Stribling, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 05, 2020, 10:07:29 PM

#108 Fresno State Bulldogs

#9 in Mountain West

The job Jeff Tedford did in fixing the program after Tim DeRuyter drove it straight into a ditch, was nothing short of remarkable. He inherited a 1-11 team, and had 10 wins in his first season, with a 12-2 team in his second, that won a conference title, and finished ranked #18 in the polls, their highest final ranking in school history, and their first appearance in the final pools since 2004. But just as remarkable is how quickly it all fell apart. The Bulldogs were picked to win their third consecutive division title, getting more first place votes than any school in either division. It started out acceptable, with an 8 point loss at USC, and then took a very good Minnesota team to double overtime before losing. They then beat Sacramento State and New Mexico State, but in conference play they lost 6 of 8 finished with their 5th loss in the last 8 games against rival San Jose State, after losing only once in the previous two decades. Jeff Tedford then abruptly retired due to health reasons, and Fresno State did not hesitate to bring back Kalen DeBoer, who had served as offensive coordinator under Tedford for those great 2017 and 2018 teams, before leaving to take the same role at Indiana. While it’s a very different level, he does have head coaching experience, spending five years at his alma mater, Sioux Falls, going 67-3, and winning 3 NAIA championships. The Bulldogs might not be quite as far off as their record would suggest. They were 1-7 in games decided by 10 points or less. And their one big loss, by 19 to Air Force, happened after the Falcons scored the final 21 points, to erase a Fresno State second half lead. The offense did not fall off by much after DeBoer left, with Jorge Reyna able to slide into the quarterback slot fairly seamlessly. Can Fresno State pull that off again? There are no obvious answers already on the roster, so I would think going into spring that Washington transfer Jake Haener, who sat out 2019, is the frontrunner. I think what makes a ton of sense is grad transfer Peyton Ramsey, who played for DeBoer last year at Indiana, knows his system, and finished 4th in the Big Ten last year in Total QBR. Fresno State has a horse in the backfield with Ronnie Rivers, who averaged 14.75 carries per game last year, 4th highest in the Mountain West, and led the conference in touchdowns. The defense is what needs to get sorted out. The 2018 defense finished ranked #12 in S&P+, the highest mark by a Group of 5 team since the 2010 Boise State group. That plummeted to #98 last year, relying primarily on forcing turnovers at a rate of nearly 2 per game, to maintain a semi-respectable scoring defense mark. They were in the bottom third of the conference in sack rate, and that’s an obvious place to point to likely improvement with a steady group of linebackers, led by Justin Rice. Aside from Kevin Atkins in the middle, both the line and secondary look to be continuingly problematic. Seeing DeBoer flip things back, simply by working the quarterback transfer portal and flipping their record in close games, neither of which seems outlandish, has the chance to make this look really bad though.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Ronnie Rivers, Senior
WR	Zane Pope, Junior
T	Dontae Bull, Junior
	.
DT	Kevin Atkins, Senior
LB	Justin Rice, Senior
S	Wylan Free, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 06, 2020, 12:06:30 AM

The Mountain West is down to 8 teams, while the Mac, Sunbelt and CUSA are each down to 7.

All but two independents are already on the board.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on March 06, 2020, 09:24:40 AM

Quote from: ELA on March 03, 2020, 11:40:46 AM

At least it stayed on the road...unlike this thread

High Jackers - I blame Fearless

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 06, 2020, 03:44:39 PM

#107 UL Monroe Warhawks

#7 in Sun Belt

Matt Viator is probably at the point of bowl or bust. It’s not as though UL Monroe has the richest history. They went to the Independence Bowl in 2012, in their lone bowl appearance. But even given that, in today’s era, who keeps their job after five bowl less season? The best news Viator got was that tight end Josh Pederson, his best offensive player, reconsidered and took his name back out of the transfer portal, after being heavily pursued by Florida State. The Warhawks had one of the most potent offenses in the FBS last year, tallying 460.9 yards per game on 6.4 ypp, both second best in the Sun Belt. They did so with a balanced attack, one of only five schools in the nation, along with Ohio State, Oklahoma, Clemson and Central Florida, to average at least 250 passing yards and 200 rushing yards a game. The problem was that offense only generated 31.6 ppg, due to a lousy kicking game and a 40% third down conversion rate. Repeating anything close to last year’s performance depends on the Joshes. Josh Pederson, as mentioned earlier, and tailback Josh Johnson, who finished second in the conference in both rushing yards per game (108.2) and per carry (6.5). Aside from that, it’s a lot of questions, starting with replacing Caleb Evans, the best quarterback in school history. The only returning quarterback on the roster is sophomore Colby Suits, who was 6 for 19 with 2 interceptions in 4 games last year. For that reason, Viator filled his 2020 class with additional options, bringing in three quarterbacks. The two true freshmen, both of whom are from Monroe, Louisiana, and neither of which had any other FBS offers, seem unlikely to contribute. JUCO transfer Jeremy Hunt, ranked as one of the top 15 JUCO quarterback transfers, should be a factor though. Hunt was someone to keep an eye on as a sophomore recruit out of Oak Park, Illinois, drawing interest from schools like Michigan and Ohio State. But an ankle injury in October of his junior season, which cost him the rest of the season, and the all-important junior summer camp tour, sort of derailed his recruitment. After a couple years at Trinity Valley Community College, he’s finally reached the FBS. He doesn’t have the running ability he possessed as a 15 year old, but the upside is too much to ignore. The graduation of Markis McCray means Jonathan Hodoh has a chance to explode on his 2019 finish. The rising senior had his four biggest games in the final 5 weeks of the season, with three 6 catch performances, and a 5 reception game. The defense has to get a lot better for this to mean anything. A year ago the Warhawks lost games where they scored 44 points, 33 points, 41 points, 29 points and 30 points. Teams got up early, and then just ran the ball over and over, 44.1 times per game. And why wouldn’t you, when Monroe surrendered 5.7 ypc, and the secondary, all things considered, was pretty solid. They should be even better this year, with Kansas State transfer Logan Wilson joining all-Sun Belt senior Corey Straughter, who led the conference in interceptions and passes defended, to form what should be a very good cornerback pairing.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Josh Johnson, Senior
WR	Jonathan Hodoh, Senior
TE	Josh Pederson, Senior
	.
DE	Kerry Starks, Senior
CB	Corey Straughter, Senior
S	Tyler Glass, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on March 07, 2020, 08:06:22 AM

Have we seen a P5 team yet?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 07, 2020, 08:42:55 AM

Ha! Closest is a former P5 team. And it was Rice.

Still trudging through mostly FCS call ups at this point.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on March 07, 2020, 08:46:15 AM

fresno st used to be better

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 07, 2020, 09:42:52 AM

The G5 pecking order in CA is so firmly entrenched as SDSU, Fresno, SJSU.

That's the order that they were poached from the Big West to the Wac. That's the order that they were poached from the Wac to the Mountain West. And, most importantly, that's how they are slotted in the ELA 2020 preseason rankings.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 07, 2020, 09:26:48 PM

#106 Central Michigan Chippewas

#7 in MAC

Jim McElwain may have slightly rehabbed his image in his first year at Central Michigan, turning the Chippewas from a winless MAC team, into a division champ, who led in the second half of the conference championship game. The remarkable change came on offense, as McElwain turned one of, if not the, worst offenses in the FBS into an upper echelon MAC offense, third in the league at 6.1 ypp. While McElwain deserves a lot of the credit for that, getting a grad transfer from the SEC, in former Tennessee quarterback Quentin Dormady, sure helped. No such help appears to be in the pipeline, and former starter Tommy Lazzaro has also graduated. The starter prior to Lazzaro, Tony Poljan is there, but now that he’s an all-conference tight end, it seems unlikely he’s headed back. You do wonder, he had Big Ten offers from Michigan State and Minnesota, as a tight end, but went to Central Michigan so he could play quarterback, if he regrets going the mid-major route. The Chips also bring back receiver Kalil Pimperton, whose 90 receptions and 934 receiving yards led the MAC by a wide margin (by 29 receptions and 250 yards), so the pass catching options look solid. But the backfield is a mess. Aside from the major question mark at quarterback, Central Michigan also lost tailback Jonathan Ward, who finished 5th in the MAC in rushing, but his 6.2 ypc was best of any back with at least 130 carries. Kobe Lewis, who was the 1-b to Ward’s 1-a does return, but considering probably no team in the country epitomized the concept of a shared backfield more than Central Michigan, a second option needs to emerge, or Lewis needs to be ready to probably nearly double his workload. The reasons to still be optimistic about the Chips’ chances to return to Detroit are (1) being in a West Division that looks like it will be dismal this year; and (2) the defense. The story was the turnaround on offense, so the equally solid defense was sort of buried. But if the offense’s expectations were low based on prior results, the defense’s should have been based on the fact that the Chips had one of the youngest and least proven units in the nation. Only 5 schools returned less defensive production in 2019 than Central Michigan, and yet, the Chippewas allowed just 5.4 ypp, third best in the MAC, led by the conference’s second best run defense. Now that young unproven unit, is a veteran, proven one, that doesn’t even count Alonzo McCoy, who tied for the team lead in interceptions, among their returning starters. This year, Central Michigan returns the second most defensive production in the MAC, but the chances the offense, just one year removed from being one of the worst in the FBS, falls back to that form, considering the departures, prevents me from picking a return to Detroit, to seek their first conference championship game win, since taking three of four from 2006-2009.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Kobe Lewis, Junior
WR	Kalil Pimperton, Junior
TE	Tony Poljan, Senior
	.
DT	Robi Stuart, Junior
LB	Troy Brown, Junior
CB	Alonzo McCoy, Senior

#105 Vanderbilt Commodores

#14 in SEC

While Vanderbilt has frequently flirted with the honor of being the Power Five debut in the countdown, off the top of my head, this is the first time they’ve “earned” that honor. Last year I was impressed by the high end skill position talent of the Commodores, but was a little wary of their defense and line play. Turned out the quantity of bad players outweighed the impact of the handful of great players, in positions of importance. Instead, transfer Riley Neal, who had been all conference at Ball State, was mediocre against SEC competition, and getting passed over caused backup blue chipper Mo Hasan to transfer to USC. To make matters worse, the other two players on the depth chart last year, both transferred out as well. So it’s a totally clean slate under center. It might be up to true freshman Ken Seals from Weatherford, Texas, who was one of the highest rated players in the Commodores’ 2020 class. Tailback Ke’Shawn Vaughn graduated, as did wideout Kalija Lipscomb and tight end Jared Pinkney, after a disappointing senior efforts. And even WITH all of that skill position talent, Vandy went 3-9, a disappointing 2019, coming off a bowl effort in 2018. Now, as stated the offense has to start nearly from scratch. True freshman Keyon Brooks, who finished with 258 yards on 4.5 ypc, was the only other back to get more than 10 carries on the season, and wasn’t particularly effective with what he did get. To add insult to injury, starting left tackle Devin Cochran announced his intention to transfer to Georgia Tech, and starting center Sean McMoore was not listed on the spring depth chart. They did add a grad transfer from Michigan, Stephen Spanellis, and he’ll probably go from rotation guy in Ann Arbor, to the best lineman in Nashville. The offensive line wasn’t the only place that Vanderbilt bolstered themselves with a transfer from the Big Ten East, also adding defensive end Alex Williams from Ohio State. The defense has the opposite problem, tons of returning “talent” from a defense that was awful, giving up an SEC worst, nearly 7 ypp. But...they return all 11 starters, 93% of their production, 4th best in the country. Vanderbilt had a turnover in the athletic director role, so Derek Mason might be done either way, but without a vast improvement in 2020, he’s certainly gone. He replaced both of his coordinators, but it might be a year too late, particularly on offense. Last year was the year to capitalize on all that talent, but they not only botched it, they ran off a quarterback, by pinning their hopes on a grad transfer who failed. There is reason to at least hope that the defense can carry this team at least to a bowl. Mason himself is a defensive guy, serving also as coordinator early in his tenure, but now also bringing in Ted Roof, who has a strong Power Five background, and resurrected his reputation last year by leading a top 20 defense with Appalachian State.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Cam Johnson, Sophomore
T	Tyler Steen, Sophomore
G	Jonathan Junior, Junior
	.
LB	Dimitri Moore, Junior
LB	Andre Mintze, Senior
S	Tae Daley, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 07, 2020, 09:38:12 PM

The SEC has a team posted before the AAC.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 08, 2020, 12:23:35 PM

#104 Connecticut Huskies

Independent

Why this is still an FBS program makes absolutely zero sense. Just being bad is one thing, there are plenty of bad FBS programs. But now leaving the American, just so their basketball program can re-enter the now basketball-only Big East, shows truly where football rates on campus. They are giving up TV money, exposure, bowl ties, and potential conference titles, to...be forced to play the likes of UMass and Liberty every year? If I were a Husky fan, I would be hoping beyond hope that the school simply comes to its senses, and becomes a potentially decent FCS program, as they were prior to 2000, reaching the quarterfinals of the 1AA playoffs in their penultimate season. Athletic Director David Benedict has consistently said that is not in the cards, so I’ll take him at his word there...he’s got no reason to lie. Plus, there are enough problems on the field in Randy Edsall Pt. 2 to worry about. Edsall went 74-70 in his first go round in Storrs, guiding the program into its transition into the FBS, and winning a pair of Big East titles in his final four years, culminating in a Fiesta Bowl trip in 2010. He parlayed that into a disastrous 5 year run at Maryland, that saw the Terps miss a bowl three times, and fail to lose fewer than 6 games in any season. The UConn return has been even worse, going 6-30 through three years, and the program ended their AAC tenure on a 19 game conference losing streak, their last win coming over Tulsa on October 21, 2017. They’ve lost 26 of their last 27 FBS games. But it goes beyond that, he’s seemingly lost the locker room. 26 Husky players have put their names in the transfer portal, and while not all of committed elsewhere, Edsall has doubled down by calling players in the portal “enabled” and “entitled”, and that UConn would not recruit the transfer portal either for new players, or to allow their own players back. The fact that this guy is back for a fourth season in his disastrous second tenure shows further just how low their program’s commitment to football actually is. The upside? The defense went from the worst in the SP+ era in 2018, to merely the 6th worst in the nation last year, and now, potentially could field a defense where all 11 starters have prior starting experience. While you’d think the upside to the usual garbage schedule that non-Notre Dame/BYU independents play is that maybe they could actually have an improved record, UConn did go out and schedule five Power Five opponents. Their other 7 games though are against six schools we’ve already covered in this countdown (UMass, Old Dominion, Liberty, San Jose State, Middle Tennessee, Army), and an FCS team (Maine). So there is a very legitimate path to six wins, if they can avoid losing more than one of those seven. Maybe that’s the hope, is that fans can get behind a fairly phony 6-6 type team, that really isn’t playing for anything, other than maybe not enough 6-6 teams to fill all the bowl slots, then can go play one of their former AAC “rivals” like Tulane, in the Frisco Bowl, in front of nobody, on December 21. If the basketball program becomes relevant again though, I suppose it will all be worth it.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Jack Zergiotis, Sophomore
RB	Kevin Mensah, Senior
WR	Cameron Ross, Sophomore
	.
DE	Lwal Uguak, Junior
LB	Omar Fortt, Senior
S	Diamond Harrell, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 08, 2020, 01:44:39 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on February 22, 2020, 03:05:18 PM

As for my prediction for the first mono-team state I will stay in New England and pick UConn.

Cha ching!

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on March 08, 2020, 03:22:07 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 07, 2020, 09:38:12 PM

The SEC has a team posted before the AAC.

Heh, I had not realized Vandy had dropped this far of late. They obviously get squeezed out in recruiting.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 09, 2020, 09:41:41 PM

UConn had a wild ride. When they joined that conference they were Temple's replacement in the original Big East, with Boston College, Miami, Virginia Tech, ect. They only got the promotion because they were a Big East Basketball school that had a FB team. They won a Big East Title and played in a BCS Bowl Game as noted. But the Conference quickly fell apart around them until it was a beefed up version of Conference USA. Then their inclusion in that FB Conference got their basketball team expelled from the Big East when they ditched the FB schools.

They do have a long and storied history with UMass from their pre-Big East days, having played every year from the 30s to the 90s, often with their Conference Title on the line. So having them as a fellow D1 independent helps. They could play twice a year, like NMSU and Liberty. And all that either team would have to do in order to be the top team in New England is to become a little bit better than Boston College. Not exactly an insurmountable hurdle, albeit quite the climb from their current state.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: fezzador on March 10, 2020, 10:13:35 AM

If UConn doesn't get their stuff together they might have to drop football

Their mens hoops program isn't anything to crow about lately, and even their ladies program is slipping a bit.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 10, 2020, 11:05:12 AM

Their basketball team had two NCs in the 2010s, and the ladies had five.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: fezzador on March 10, 2020, 11:34:56 AM

UConn men's hoops is incredibly feast-or-famine. Their highs are as high (or higher) than Duke, NC, Kentucky, or Kansas; but their lows are a hell of a lot lower too.

The ladies' program is a lot more consistent and they are still seen as the standard-bearer for the sport (much like Alabama is of CFB, even though they aren't quite as dominant). They have the talent to win it all every year, but have gotten a lot more competition from programs like South Carolina and Baylor recently. Oregon seems to have the goods to crack the code this year too, but that might be a one-time thing as they'll probably tumble back to Earth after Ionescu graduates.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 10, 2020, 11:49:59 AM

Well yeah, but nothing to crow about? They have three NCs since the last time that the Big Ten won one, even of you include Maryland, and the Big Ten does plenty of crowing.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 10, 2020, 12:09:31 PM

#103 Colorado State Rams

#8 in Mountain West

Hiring Jim McElwain worked out so well for the program, Colorado State dipped back into the SEC offensive coordinator pool, in hiring Mike Bobo away from Georgia. That went decidedly less well, and Bobo was fired after going 7-17 over the past two seasons. While Steve Addazio does have ten years of head coaching experience, it remains a rather curious hire. He was born, raised, and played in Connecticut, and his six years spent at Notre Dame and Indiana from 1999-2004 is the only time he wasn’t on the Atlantic coast. Plus he’ll be 61 years old by the time the season starts. His run at Boston College is a study of mediocrity. He had the one disastrous year in 2015 where they had zero offense, but his other six years were four years of 7-6, one of 7-5 (because their bowl game against Boise State was cancelled for lightning), and one of 6-7; and went 4-4 in the ACC in five of those six years. He does not inherit an empty cupboard, at least on offense. The Ram offense was slightly derailed by starting quarterback Collin Hill tearing his ACL (for the third time) in September, and turning to Patrick O’Brien. After a shaky transition, O’Brien really started rolling over the second half of the season, with an above average QBR in five of six starts, over 70 three times. Hill decided to follow Bobo to South Carolina, where Bobo took the offensive coordinator job. So the job is unquestionably O’Brien’s now, and he’s got a great group of pass catchers to work with as well. True freshman Dante Wright was a huge breakout star, finishing top ten in the Mountain West in receptions and receiving yards per game. Granted it’s pretty nice getting to line up across from Warren Jackson, the best receiver in the conference. Jackson then gave his new coach a nice surprise with his decision to return for his senior year after finishing fourth in the nation in receiving yards per game. Addazio brough Boston College transfer tight end Cam Reddy with him, to join all-Mountain West Trey McBride. So the downside? The Rams ran the ball less than 45% of the time, least in the Mountain West. And it might get even more lopsided this year with the graduation of Marvin Kinsey Jr., who was the only solid back Colorado State had last year. Their two returning backs who saw any sort of meaningful action last year averaged just 4.3 ypc on 148 carries. The line ranked #102 in overall line yards, and 6th worst in short yardage situations. In addition to the graduation of starting guard Jeff Taylor, the Rams also had the entire starting left side of the line transfer out to Power Five schools (Nebraska and TCU). This might be the only time in the whole countdown that I reference a Strength and Conditioning Coach, but new hire Scott McLafferty might be the most important member of the new staff. Colorado State was +44 in first quarters; -6 in second quarters; -19 in third quarters; and -55 in fourth quarters. That inability to finish is the difference between the 4-8 season they had, and maybe sneaking into a bowl game. This feels like a tipping point hire for the program. Sonny Lubick turned the program around, and in just his second season, started a run of 6 WAC/MWC titles in 9 years from 1994-2002, which included three top 15 finishes. But no conference titles since 2002, no final AP Poll rankings since 2000 (with only 3 weeks in the polls total since 2003), and since the conference split into divisions in 2013, only a top two divisional finish once, with no conference championship game appearances.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Patrick O'Brien, Senior
WR	Warren Jackson, Senior
TE	Trey McBride, Junior
	.
DE	Manny Jones, Senior
DT	Ellison Hubbard, Senior
P	Ryan Stonehouse, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 10, 2020, 05:31:33 PM

#102 East Carolina Pirates

#11 in American

Slotting these guys in at last in the American does a poor job of conveying the fact that I think they are on the right path. First of all, UConn is gone from the league, otherwise they’d be on the bottom. Second, if this is where the Pirates end up, it would be their highest finish in the Massey composite ranking in five years, so it is an improvement. Mike Houston’s history of program building has been consistent. He took over a Lenois-Rhyne program that went 8-25 from 2006-2008, got them into the playoffs in his first season after promotion from defensive coordinator to head coach, and two years later reached the Division II National Championship. Went to The Citadel, who had only two winning seasons in the prior two decades, and in his second season there, got the Bulldogs into the FCS playoffs for the first time in 23 years. After that stop he went to James Madison, which had been in the FCS playoffs the two years prior, but stalled early on both times. He won a national title in his first year, and made it back to the title game in his second year. So, for a team that went 4-8, with their best win being on the road at Old Dominion, there is at least hope, for the first time since maybe their inaugural season in the AAC. Houston put a lot on the arm of sophomore quarterback Holton Ahlers, who attempted nearly 37 passes a game, second most in the AAC. The youngster responded well, finishing third in passing yards per game, and completion percentage; fourth in passer rating. The issue? Finishing drives. Thank goodness East Carolina had an all-conference kicker in Jake Verity, who was 19 of 20 on field goals of under 40 yards, because the Pirates were awful in the red zone, scoring touchdowns just 46.2% of the time in the red zone, easily worst in the conference. You can put some of that on Ehlers, as he threw 3 red zone interceptions, to go with two fumbles, but partially because East Carolina simply could not run the ball. They used four different backs, but averaged just 3.8 ypc, and had just 12 rushing touchdowns, worst in the conference, and none of those rushing touchdowns came from outside the 20. Part of that was dictated by an offensive line that was #13 in the nation in sack rate allowed, and #10 in passing situations; but allowed the 6th most carries for zero or negative yardage. Defensively, the biggest question is where is the pressure going to come from. Literally half of the team’s sacks (11.5 of 23) walked out the door with the graduation of Kendal Futrell. Xavier Smith and Gerald Stringer gives them a pair of linebackers who play well in space, particularly against the pass, but they are not pass rushers. They combined for 2 interceptions and 9 passes defended, including 7 pass breakups, but just 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries. The secondary did not do much to instill confidence last year, allowing a 62.3% completion rate, and 8.5 ypa, both above only UConn within the American. Cornerback Isaiah Kemp, a transfer from Duke, who had a Georgia offer, has a chance to immediately contribute. Mike Houston signed the 4th best class in the conference, so reinforcements are coming, and the trajectory is good, but it’s still a year away.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	C.J. Johnson, Sophomore
T	D'Ante Smith, Senior
K	Jake Verity, Senior
	.
LB	Xavier Smith, Junior
LB	Gerald Stringer, Senior
S	Davondre Robinson, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on March 10, 2020, 06:29:36 PM

Mike Leach should be their HC.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on March 10, 2020, 09:59:04 PM

Nice compilations are you using University or Ouija Boards to find all these tidbits?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 10, 2020, 11:44:40 PM

Maybe I just make them up. Would you bother checking?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 10, 2020, 11:51:49 PM

I nominate Cincydawg to be the official fact checker of the ELA preseason rankings.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on March 11, 2020, 05:41:07 AM

These are IN FACT ELA preseason rankings. I just saved you about ten bucks from buying some CFB mag you won't read except for your team anyway, and you already knew everything they wrote about your team.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 11, 2020, 10:35:28 AM

#101 Rutgers Scarlet Knights

#14 in Big Ten

With Chris Ash out, and Greg Schiano back, there is some optimism in Piscataway. I’m here to pump the brakes just a bit on that. Schiano’s run of 6 bowls in seven years began the year after the Big East to ACC exodus was complete. Even in what was basically a Group of 5 conference by that point, he still never actually won a title, and only lost fewer than 4 games once. So what does that translate to, in the toughest division in the FBS, a decade later? Granted it couldn’t be much worse. Their first Big Ten campaign resulted in an 8-5 season, wins over Michigan and a bowl bound Maryland, and a bowl appearance. Granted, and in fairness to him, that was the last season with Schiano recruits. The five seasons since then? They’ve gone 3-38 in their last 41 Big Ten games, which includes winless conference campaigns in 3 of the past 4 seasons. Their last win against a Power 5 opponent was over Maryland on November 4, 2017. Their only wins, at all, in the 27 games since, were against UMass, Liberty and Texas State. Problems abound on this roster, but it’s been the offense that has really, really been problematic. That’s why Schiano’s hire of Sean Gleeson is what excites me the most. Gleeson spent six years at Princeton, the last two as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, including the 10-0 2018 team, which led the FCS in scoring offense, and set an Ivy League scoring record. He spent one year in the same capacity at Oklahoma State last year, before returning to his northeast roots at Rutgers. Perhaps Schiano, perhaps the chance to be taught by Gleeson, but that was enough to convince Art Sitkowski, who had entered the transfer portal, to return to Rutgers, and they added Baylor transfer Peyton Powell, a former 4-star recruit, who redshirted last year, and is eligible in 2020, with all four years of eligibility. Powell was recruited by several schools as a receiver, and this team is so desperate for playmakers, they might just find a way to get him on the field. Because as kind as the transfer portal was to the Scarlet Knights’ quarterback room, the rest of the offense was not so lucky, losing two running backs, five receivers, and four linemen. They did bring in Aron Cruickshank from Wisconsin, who was a great returner, but sort of underwhelmed as a receiver. At one point it felt like the defense was doing its best to overcome the constant holes the offense was putting them in. By last year it was clear that was no longer the case. Even the crazy turnover prone offense, at least finished tied for 12th in the Big Ten in takeaways last year, which is sadly a large improvement. But the defense forced a Big Ten worst 10. So while the Scarlet Knights were, again, a dismal #126 in turnover margin, it was the takeaways that were the bigger problem. If they can flip that, there is enough returning production on this side of the ball, to at least get back to their 2018 level. The offense, even if quarterback is maybe in ok shape, is still a total wreck everywhere else.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Isaih Pacheco, Junior
WR	Bo Melton, Senior
T	Mike Lonsdorf, Senior
	.
LB	Tyshon Fogg, Senior
LB	Rashawn Battle, Senior
P	Adam Korsak, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on March 11, 2020, 10:39:15 AM

I noticed Arkansas has not yet surfaced, I think. Rutger and Vandy are up (down).

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 12, 2020, 01:32:24 PM

#100 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

#7 in Conference USA

Louisiana Tech had everything lined up for their breakout season under Skip Holtz, looking for their first Conference USA championship, and only their third ever FBS conference championship, after winning the WAC in 2001 and 2011. A November road loss at UAB allowed the Blazers to win the division tiebreaker, and Louisiana Tech had to settle for a 14-0 Independence Bowl win over a Miami team that looked every bit as disinterested as you would assume. The Bulldogs have a lot of rebuilding to do for a defense that excelled under first year defensive coordinator Bob Diaco, who was trying to rebuild his own reputation after a rough run as head coach at UConn, and then most recently, linebackers coach at Oklahoma. I’d say he did that, leading Louisiana Tech’s defense to the second best ypp allowed mark in the conference, and holding six opponents to 20 points or less, including that shutout of Miami in the bowl game. As good as those numbers are, even when teams did move the ball on them, it didn’t often pay off. They allowed teams to score in the red zone only 64.7% of the time, and touchdowns just 47.1% of the time. Both numbers were best in the conference, and the former is 3rd best in the nation. The later number isn’t tracked anywhere I can find. He did such a good job, that he was hired back to the Power Five by Purdue, and departing alongside him were 8 senior starters, and junior cornerback Amik Robertson, who Pro Football Focus thinks should be a third round pick, and would be higher if he wasn’t 5’9”. The two returning starters, Milton Williams and Willie Baker, are pretty good, both were honorable mention All-Conference USA, but only two programs in the FBS have less returning defensive production than the Bulldogs. The offense looks to be pretty good...assuming they can figure out the quarterback position. Justin Henderson finished fourth in Conference USA with 1,062 rushing yards, and led it with 15 rushing touchdowns; and Adrian Hardy was an all-conference receiver. Replacing J’Mar Smith under center is a massive undertaking though. Smith was a three year starter who really put it together his senior season, raising his completion percentage by 7% of his junior campaign, his yards per attempt by 1.2, and his TD:INT ratio went from 15:10 to 18:5. Aaron Allen was the QB2 last year, but it appears to be a wide open contest going into the fall. They also bring back senior Westin Elliott, a former JUCO transfer; but they also added a grad transfer from Abilene Christian in Luke Anthony. Anthony was a solid, but unspectacular, FCS player, so that should show just exactly how Holtz feels about his returning quarterback options.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Justin Henderson, Senior
WR	Adrian Hardy, Senior
T	Willie Allen, Senior
	.
DE	Milton Williams, Junior
LB	Willie Baker, Senior
LB	Ezekiel Barnett, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: LetsGoPeay on March 13, 2020, 08:33:27 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 10, 2020, 11:49:59 AM

Well yeah, but nothing to crow about? They have three NCs since the last time that the Big Ten won one, even of you include Maryland, and the Big Ten does plenty of crowing.

UConn women's basketball will be "back" sooner rather than later. They have a super recruit coming in next year that will probably be in the conversation for National Player of the Year. With my daughter now in high school and starting as a freshman for a team that made it the final four of the state tournament (forgive the gratuitous dad brag moment), I've been a little more in touch with girls high school basketball lately. This kid that's going to UConn, Paige Bueckers, is unbelievable.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 13, 2020, 06:36:09 PM

CUSA has lost 5/7 West teams, 3/7 East teams.
The Mac has lost 4/6 West teams, 2/6 East.
D1 Independents have lost 5/7.
MWC has lost 2/6 Mountain, 3/6 West.
Sunbelt has lost 3/5 West, 1/5 East
Big Ten, SEC and AAC have each contributed 1 outside of the top 99.
ACC, PAC 12, and the Big 12 are all unscathed. Which will hold out the longest?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on March 13, 2020, 07:03:26 PM

I suspect the B12 has the best worst team. Baylor not long ago was awful. They played in the Sugar Bowl and didn't embarrass themselves.

Kansas though ...

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on March 13, 2020, 09:17:22 PM

Quote from: ELA on March 10, 2020, 11:44:40 PM

Maybe I just make them up. Would you bother checking?

If I was to publish a pre season Insider,yes.Just curious where you get all the preseason info,not chop busting.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 13, 2020, 10:31:28 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on March 13, 2020, 09:17:22 PM

If I was to publish a pre season Insider,yes.Just curious where you get all the preseason info,not chop busting.

Don't worry, I didn't take it that way

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 13, 2020, 10:36:38 PM

#99 Charlotte 49ers

#6 in Conference USA

With the backing of former Carolina Panthers owner, Jerry Richardson, Charlotte launched their football program in 2011, hiring former Wake Forest defensive coordinator Brad Lambert, as the school’s first head coach. Six years of disappointing results later, the school made a widely applauded hire of Austin Peay coach Will Healy, who was only 33 years old when he was hired. The results seemingly paid off immediately, with the school’s first bowl bid in 2019, and brought in a 2020 recruiting class which is easily the highest rated in school history, led by Louisville transfer safety, by way of JUCO, Lyn Strange. Credit to Charlotte athletic director Mike Hill, who was hired from being the associate athletic director at Florida earlier in the year, to recognize what Healy was, even though he was coming off a 5-6 year three at Austin Peay. The program was absolutely miserable when he took it over, they hadn’t even won so much as a conference championship in four decades, when they were coached by a guy named Boots, and soda pop cost a nickel. He set them up, that the year after he left, they broke that streak, and not only reached their first ever 1AA/FCS playoffs, but advanced to the Elite 8. A Chattanooga native, Vanderbilt might be wise to kick the tires on Healy after what is sure to be a disastrous year, particularly considering Charlotte is not ideally set up to build on their 2019 success. Much like Charlotte jumped on Healy after a 2018 blip, a savvy Power Five school will after what could be a 2020 blip. The one glaring hole on offense is Benny LeMay, who has been an absolute workhorse back over the past three seasons, with over 3,000 career rushing yards, tallying 562 carries over the past three years. The plan is to simply replace him with another workhorse in grad transfer Tre Harbison from Northern Illinois, who has 436 carries in just the last two years. That’s a big pickup for what the 49ers want to do, being the only Conference USA school last year to run the ball over 60% of the time. That’s plenty of carries to share with Aaron McAllister, who ran for 380 yards a year ago. Quarterback Chris Reynolds who had 791 rushing yards, 928 if you disregard sacks, so he’s a threat from that spot too. With potentially the best group of receivers in the conference, but with an offensive line that graduated three starters, and could be looking at a JUCO transfer center, perhaps the 49ers will lean more heavily on the passing game. Particularly is Rico Arnold, who missed all of 2019 with a foot injury, regains his freshman form he showed in 2018, when he caught 22 passes for 302 yards. He joins a group that touts All-Conference USA player Victor Tucker, who had over 900 yards and 7 touchdowns, along with Cameron Dollar and Tyler Ringwood, who combined for 66 receptions, 994 yards and 7 touchdowns as secondary options. The defense has to replace a ton of talent, including an All-American, but while the returning production looks ugly, a closer look reveals a not so bleak picture. Already mentioned was JUCO transfer Lyn Strange. They also added a pair of Power Five transfers in the front seven, getting defensive tackle Josiah So’o from Vanderbilt, and linebacker Derek Boykins from South Carolina. They also get defensive end Tyriq Harris back, who was all-conference in 2018, but missed 2019 with a back injury. Granted, back injuries on defensive linemen are generally not quick fixes with a return to form.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Chris Reynolds, Junior
WR	Victor Turner, Junior
WR	Cameron Dollar, Junior
	.
DE	Markees Watts, Junior
DE	Tyriq Harris, Senior
CB	N

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 14, 2020, 12:55:28 AM

NC just lost a pair of teams in rapid succession, but they roll seven deep so it's all good. How many ACC NC teams will appear on the list before Appalachian State?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on March 14, 2020, 03:04:09 PM

I guess UNC might be ahead of Appy State, but that's it.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 15, 2020, 03:04:08 PM

Saturday and Sunday

#98 Georgia State Panthers

#6 in Sun Belt

In terms of returning starters, Georgia State’s offense appears to be in fine shape. Then you look a little deeper, and it’s the offensive line and tight end that seemingly have a monopoly on that. The Panthers have to replace their all-conference starting quarterback, their all-conference, Sun Belt rushing leader, running back, and two of their top three receivers. Their best bet might just be to get as many big bodies as possible on the field, and just try to bully opponents. They return four starting offensive linemen, three of whom played as underclassmen last year, and three of whom earned all-conference honors. They also bring back a pair of all-conference tight ends. And this from an offensive line that was very good last year, even playing that young, ranking #13 in the nation in average push yards, and #12 in stuff rate prevention. This should easily be the best line in the conference. The one proven skill position player they have is receiver Cornelius McCoy, who was tied for fourth in the league with 70 receptions. The fact that Georgia State hasn’t brought in a transfer quarterback yet is shocking. The roster is three redshirt freshmen, which includes a walk on, and one true freshman. Miami transfer Jarren Williams is still out there on the market. I’m sure he thinks higher of himself, but he graduated from Central Gwinnett, just 30 miles away from the Georgia State campus, two years ago, so you could maybe sell him on being the Day 1 starter (if he gets a waiver), close to home. For as well as the offensive line played in 2019, the defensive line was equally as bad, bottom 10 in the FBS in the metrics where their offensive line was top 15. Must have made for some brutal practices for them. Iron sharpens iron, but it also cuts through paper. Anchored by Hardrick Willis and Dontae Wilson, there is no excuse for the line not to vastly improve in 2020. If Willis is able to build off a solid 2019, the Panthers look to be pretty strong up the middle, with inside linebacker Trajan Stephens-McQueen quarterbacking the defense from the middle, and leading the team with 110 tackles, fifth in the conference, including 8 tackles for loss. That strength up the middle didn’t help much last year, when Georgia State allowed a Sun Belt worst 5.4 ypc, and allowed an obscene 40 touchdowns on 55 red zone trips. There is talent on the back end, but offenses just put this team in a phone booth, and bullied them, in an age, where most offenses try to develop new ways to get their players into space.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Cornelius McCoy, Junior
TE	Aubry Payne, Senior
G	Shamarious Gilmore, Senior
	.
DE	Hardrick Willis, Junior
DT	Dontae Wilson, Senior
LB	Trajan Stephens-McQueen, Senior

#97 Kansas Jayhawks

#10 in Big XII

The overall hope with the Les Miles hire was to at least stabilize the program to a point that in a few years, a younger hire didn’t view the situation quite so direly. There were moments, a blowout win in Chestnut Hill over Boston College on a Friday night, and a homecoming win over Texas Tech. But even David Beatty got those, a 2018 upset win over a better TCU team, and an upset of Texas in 2017. Ultimately the 2019 result was the same, a 3-9 season, 1-8 in the Big XII. The Jayhawks haven’t won more than 3 games in a season since going 5-7 in 2009, and haven’t won more than one conference game since 2008. In the eleven seasons since, Kansas has won a COMBINED 7 Big XII games. Baylor won 8 conference games last year alone, and they got the closest thing to an NCAA death penalty just four years ago. It’s a shame nobody gets to see just how fun Pooka Williams Jr. is. He wound up second in the Big XII in rushing, for the second year in a row, even though he’s the only guy you have to worry about, and Kansas generally finds itself playing from behind too often to fully lean into him. He’s enough to make an underwhelming Jayhawk offense, at least somewhat respectable. Kansas’ weird problem is that they were more explosive than consistent, but not explosive enough. Williams was top 30 in the nation in runs of over 10 yards and runs of over 20 yards. But he only had 4 runs of over 30 yards, which kept him outside the top 100. Yet, Kansas only averaged 18.7 first downs per game, second lowest in the conference, on 39% third down conversion rate, and 35% 4th down conversion rate, the worst in the Big XII. So they were too reliant on big plays, but the big plays they got, which were fairly frequent, weren’t big enough. Considering the bulk of returning talent is at the skill positions, that will probably be the gameplan again. Aside from Williams, Velton Gardner flashed signs on limited touches. JUCO transfer receiver Andrew Parchment won postseason newcomer of the year, and is their best and most consistent receiver, but Stephon Robinson Jr., and his 16.2 ypc probably scares defenses more. But Kansas will be breaking in a new starter at quarterback, and trying to replace 3 starting offensive linemen, plus a fourth part time starter. So the whole thing is sort of a deck of cards. It probably doesn’t matter because of how truly terrible the defense is going to be though. The Jayhawks fell to #106 in defensive SP+, and rank #117 in returning production. Per Bill Connelly, the Jayhawks defense basically just didn’t allow big plays. They were dismal at everything else. They generated a Big XII low 17 sacks, and lose 4 of their top 6 havoc creators, including their two leading sackers. Good luck trying to attempt to compete in the Big XII with no pass rush. The one bright spot was true freshman linebacker Gavin Potter from Broken Arrow, Oklahoma.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Pooka Williams Jr., Junior
FB	Ben Miles, Junior
WR	Andrew Parchment, Senior
	.
LB	Gavin Potter, Sophomore
LB	Kyron Johnson, Senior
P	Kyle Thompson, Senior

#96 South Florida Bulls

#10 in American

While simply bringing Willie Taggert back seems like it would have been the easy choice, scroll a little ways back up to the UConn breakdown to see why that isn’t necessarily the best call. The coach who worked on his way up, isn’t going to necessarily work at the same location on his way back down. While it was a different school on his way up, South Florida sort of learned that lesson with Charlie Strong. Instead they made a higher upside require, by hiring Clemson co-offensive coordinator Jeff Scott. Scott was hired at Clemson in 2008 as a graduate assistant, and promoted to wide receiver coach, midseason, when Dabo Swinney was named interim coach. When the Swinney hire was made permanent, Scott also took over as recruiting coordinator, which he held through 2014. So the rise in talent that Clemson has undergone, yeah, that’s Swinney, but Scott very well might be the second most important person involved in that. The level to which the talent in Tampa had depleted is inexcusable. A number of AAC programs are at historic highs, and for South Florida to be pulling in less talent than schools like Cincinnati, Memphis and Temple, makes no sense. Strong’s final class finished ranked outside the top 100 nationally, #9 out of 11 in the American. They should be bringing in top 3 AAC classes, top 50-60 classes overall, every single year. Scott inherits a young starting quarterback in Jordan McCloud, who Strong rolled with last year, for better or worse, often worse, after the often transferred Blake Barnett simply wasn’t working out. But the result was the lowest completion rate and fewest passing touchdowns in the conference, this side of Navy, and at just 6.2 ypa, the worst passing average in the conference, to go with the lowest passing efficiency. The run game was slightly better, but with the graduation of Jordan Cronkite, a lot more falls on Kelley Joiner, who, like McCloud played last year as a true freshman. He averaged 5.1 ypc, but on under 7 carries per game, and nearly zero red zone work. Considering he was a 5’9”, 175 pound 18 year old, giving him limited work, and no goal line work, makes sense. Those dimensions aren’t really changing, so while his work load should increase, they also need a bigger back to emerge. The answer to both questions may be power five transfers, as South Florida brought in quarterback Cade Fortin from North Carolina, and running backs Darrian Felix and Lavonte Valentine, from Oregon and South Carolina, respectively. They also got interior defensive tackle Bo Peek from Stanford, who has already been cleared for immediate eligibility. He should help strengthen the middle of a Bulls defense that was very good against the pass, but terrible against the run. South Florida held teams to under 190 passing yards per game, on a solid 7.0 ypa, thanks in part to 12 interceptions, a 3.69% rate, #12 in the nation. But the run defense allowed 4.5 ypc, over 200 yards per game, second worst in the American, to only UConn. The Bulls had the second most lopsided run defense-pass defense splits, with 54.8% of the yards they allowed, coming on the ground. On the whole, South Florida returns the 38th most defensive production in the nation from what was the makings of a very good defense. The return both interior linemen, and along with the addition of Peek, means maybe the Bulls can become an elite defensive unit, from a team that lost three games where they allowed 20 points or less.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Jordan McCloud, Sophomore
RB	Kelley Joiner, Sophomore
WR	Randall St. Felix, Junior
	.
LB	Dwayne Boyles, Junior
LB	Antonio Grier, Junior
CB	K.J. Sails, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on March 15, 2020, 03:08:51 PM

Ha, I picked the Big 12 as last to have a team on this list, and then wondered about Kansas.

I believe the ACC and Pac are the last conferences without a team mentioned, which is a bit odd/ironic.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on March 15, 2020, 03:46:24 PM

hard to go without a couple conference wins in the PAC and ACC

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 17, 2020, 10:55:17 AM

#95 Stanford Cardinal

#12 in Pac 12

Such is the cycle of college football, that Stanford finds itself back in the Pac 12 basement. The history of Cardinal football has been a yo yo of unsustainable success, followed by absolute dispair. Stanford went to three straight Rose Bowls from 1933-1935, and two years later had back to back last place finishes...before claiming a national championship the next year in 1940. Went to another Rose Bowl in 1951, tied for last in the conference the next year. Back to back Rose Bowls in 1970 and 1971, tied for last in 1972. Won a Pac 10 title in 1992...4-7 in 1993. Went to a Rose Bowl in 1999...5-6 in 2000. They had never had the sustained success that Jim Harbaugh and David Shaw maintained from 2009 to 2018. 10 straight winning seasons, three conference championships, seven final AP Poll Rankings (six of which were top 12), and a pair of Rose Bowl wins. So while a fall off was likely, I assumed it would follow David Shaw departing for one of the many jobs he was always rumored for. Not just the number of players that entered the transfer portal, but the number of impact players who entered the transfer portal is what makes this more alarming. Something just isn’t right on the farm. The bones of a good team are still there. While K.J. Costello transferred to Mississippi State, David Mills was probably better than what Costello showed last year. The injury Costello suffered in the season opener against Northwestern, seemed to stick with him for the entire year. Then, it’s still Stanford, so even with three starters, or possible starters transferring out to other Power Five schools, and Walker Little, who has gone from potential top 5 NFL pick, to unable to stay healthy enough to contribute, the Cardinal have two All-Conference linemen in the mix. They played four different freshmen along the offensive line last year, due to injuries, so you have to hope there is some improvement. The problem is who are they blocking for? Death, taxes, and Stanford having a premier running back were the certainties over the past decade. Since Bryce Love made the ill fated decision to return for his senior year in 2018, that has collapsed. Love went from 2,118 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns, on 8.1 ypc in 2017, winning the Doak Walker, unanimous first team All-American, and coming in second in the Heisman voting; to 739 yards, 6 touchdowns, on 4.5 ypc as a senior. He then tore his ACL in the final game of that season, and hasn’t played football since. The Cardinal averaged 5.9 ypc in 2017, 5th best in the nation; to 3.6 ypc (#109) in 2018; and 3.7 ypc (#100) last year. I said last year, that the Cardinal seemed to lean into their strengths, and were passing the ball more, late in 2018, and that they could hold it together if they continued to do that in 2019. To their credit, they did, throwing the ball 57.8% of the time, 9th most in the nation, and one spot above Texas Tech, which is staggering. The problem is they aren’t built for that, they need to find a running back. Cameron Scarlett graduated after a disappointing two years, so a pair of true sophomores, Austin Jones and Nathaniel Peat, are probably next up, but combined for just 54 carries last year. The defense is in slightly better shape thanks to Paulson Adebo’s decision to return for his senior year. Adebo missed three games, and was still all-conference last year. If he’s healthy, he is squarely in the Jim Thorpe discussion. But absent getting the running game shored up, I don’t see this team scoring enough for it to matter.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Connor Wedington, Senior
T	Foster Sarell, Senior
C	Drew Dalman, Senior
	.
DE	Thomas Booker, Junior
LB	Curtis Robinson, Senior
CB	Paulson Adebo, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2020, 11:00:27 AM

So, the ACC is the last P5 conference not with a team yet. I'd guess Georgia Tech is their worst team, with some competition for that slot.

UNC might be pretty good this year, very good returning QB.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 17, 2020, 04:39:49 PM

#94 Ball State Cardinals

#6 in MAC

For a school that only has one ever trip to the MAC Championship Game, under Brady Hoke in 2008, and last won the conference in 1996, saying the Cardinals need to reach Detroit for Mike Neu to keep his job, may seem like an impossible ask, but then again, how many coaches, even at Ball State, get a fifth year, when the first four resulted in an 8-24 conference record, and no bowls? It certainly helps that Neu is a school legend, winning MAC MVP in 1993 while leading the Cardinals to a conference title, and the second bowl appearance in school history. But also, the program is trending in the right direction, going from 2 to 4 to 5 wins over the last three seasons, and now return 74% of their production, second most in the MAC. The only school above them, was Akron, who may have been the worst team in the FBS last year. Mix in the fact that Toledo, Northern Illinois and Central Michigan aren’t at recent levels, Eastern Michigan is in a rebuilding year, and they get their primary division contender, Western Michigan, at home, and it starts to make sense. If Neu doesn’t get it done this year, he never is. To get there, it’s going to start on the defensive side of the ball, led by a secondary, that should be the best in the conference. It starts with what certainly, on paper, has to be the MAC’s best cornerback pairing in Antonio Phillips and Amechi Uzodinma II, who combined for 9 interceptions a year ago, ranking first and third in the MAC last year at 0.42 and 0.36 per game. But as good as they were a year ago, it was the Cardinals stout run defense, one of the better mid-major 3-4 run defenses in the nation, that was even better. Jaylin Thomas is a proven playmaker on one outside linebacker, but for this unit to go from good, to possibly the best defense in the MAC, depends on how well they reload up the middle. Gone is senior nose tackle Chris Crumb, replaced by 300 pound true sophomore Justen Ramsey, at a spot where young guys typically struggle. Then from the second level, Jacob White, and his sure running back tackling abilities (117 tackles) are gone. Getting more backfield pressure from that spot would help. Ball State’s four leading tacklers, the aforementioned Jacob White and Jaylin Thomas, along with the graduated Ray Wilborn, and returning safety Bryce Cosby, combined for 375 tackles...and no sacks. The offense is not in bad shape either. Caleb Huntley returns for his senior year at tailback, after finishing third in the MAC with 106.3 rushing ypg last year, but Fletcher Walter, who had 726 yards on 132 carries as a reserve, is gone. Three of their top four receivers are back as well, but so is the guy under center, redshirt senior Drew Plitt. Plitt might be the most underappreciated quarterback in the conference, coming off a year where he was top three in completion percentage, touchdowns, passing yards, and passing efficiency, yet found himself entirely omitted from the conference postseason honors. His career yards per attempt is third in school history, and even spending just two years as the full time starter, he should wind up at least fourth all time in passing yards in school history. If he wins, his place in school history will be cemented right alongside his former MVP head coach, who can add to his own legacy with a conference title as both a starting quarterback and head coach.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Caleb Huntley, Senior
WR	Justin Hall, Senior
G	Curtis Blackwell, Senior
	.
LB	Jaylin Thomas, Senior
CB	Antonio Phillips, Senior
CB	Amechi Uzodinma II, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on March 17, 2020, 04:40:09 PM

Ya know not sure if i even remember Georgia State.I knew there was Mercer/GTech/G.Southern/Kennesaw/Oglethorpe.Perhaps because I never bet on them

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2020, 05:40:45 PM

Georgia State has the largest enrollment in the state. It's largely a commuter school but is changing apparently. They play football in the old Braves' stadium downtown and have major expansion plans for that general area. They should be able to find decent talent overlooked by others. This image of course includes a level of attendance not generally seen.

(https://i.imgur.com/JLohPds.jpg)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on March 17, 2020, 09:15:18 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 17, 2020, 05:40:45 PM

Georgia State has the largest enrollment in the state. It's largely a commuter school but is changing apparently. They play football in the old Braves' stadium downtown and have major expansion plans for that general area. They should be able to find decent talent overlooked by others. This image of course includes a level of attendance not generally seen.

[img width=500 height=263.991]https://i.imgur.com/JLohPds.jpg[/img]

I just looked up this stadium in the Font of All Wisdom and Knowledge. This led me to other articles. The history of Atlanta's stadiums is a convoluted one. Turner Field didn't last very long, although perhaps longer than The Ballpark at Arlington. A whole lot of money was spent on construction and multiple renovations of the Georgia Dome for it to have only lasted 25 years.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on March 17, 2020, 09:54:04 PM

Yeah, we don't like "old" stadiums after 25 years apparently. The Georgia Dome was imploded and carted away. At least Turner Field/Olympic Stadium has some use now. The new Braves' stadium is in one of the heaviest traffic areas of the city with no subway anywhere remotely near it.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 18, 2020, 04:48:59 PM

#93 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

#5 in Sun Belt

Asking the Chanticleers to challenge Appalachian State for a division title, after going 6-18 in three years in the Sun Belt, is asking a bit much, but expecting this team to take a massive step forward, is not. Joe Moglia taking this program from after thought to an FCS title contender was well documented, but less noted is just how unexpected their struggles in moving up to FBS have been. If they can stay healthy, this could be the year that all changes. That may seem like an obvious caveat, but this roster is loaded with returning talent, 18 returning starters, including 10 on offense; with the 5th most returning offensive production in the nation. The inefficiency of the passing game is where the most gains can be made, considering Coastal Carolina returns not one, but two starting quarterbacks. It doesn’t make a ton of sense, both Fred Payton and Bryce Carpenter have similar skill sets, both fit their spread read option style, with comparable passing numbers and finishing second and fourth on the team in rushing. You do wonder how much they are being held back by not being THE guy. Both played in every game they were healthy for, Payton getting 187 pass attempts and 54 rush attempts; with Carpenter getting 142 pass attempts and 109 rushes. When you have Isaiah Likely, who is probably the best tight end in the conference, I get the safe passing game, but they need to open it up more. Javon Heiligh led the team in receptions, averaging just 10.8 ypc. The Chanticleers were 11th in the FBS, second in the Group of Five, with a completion percentage of 66.78%, but averaged just 11.1 yards per completion, 20th lowest. The problem there is that the three leading receivers last year were the aforementioned Heiligh and Likely, along with tailback C.J. Marable. The likely breakout stars as far as deep targets go are gone due to transfer (Jai Williams) and graduation (Larry Collins Jr.). So it looks like more of the same. They do need to find some backfield help for Marable, who averaged nearly 120 all purpose yards per game, but put too many miles on his body. He averaged 17 carries per game, had the second most receptions on the team, and occasionally returned kicks. Second among tailbacks was Jacquez Hairston, who averaged less than 7 total touches per game. So why does remaining healthy matter more to Coastal Carolina than most? For all of that returning production, seemingly nobody backing them up wanted to stay, losing 12 players to transfer. Most problematic is how those guys seemed to be grouped into heavy losses at certain positions, losing three running backs, three receivers, and four linebackers. For the defense, getting defensive end Tarron Jackson back for his senior year is massive. Their defensive success is largely based off pressure generating, and he’s the best on the team at that. He was first in the Sun Belt in sacks, fifth in tackles for loss, and first among linemen in tackles. Losing Sterling Jackson, the best penetrating interior lineman, will hurt that, but C.J. Brewer is a space eater, who should continue to take up blockers to Jackson to keep making plays. For now Jackson is my preseason Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	C.J. Marable, Senior
WR	Javon Heiligh, Junior
TE	Isaiah Likely, Junior
	.
DE	Tarron Jackson, Senior
DT	C.J. Brewer, Senior
LB	Teddy Gallagher, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on March 18, 2020, 07:09:39 PM

Quote from: ELA on March 17, 2020, 10:55:17 AM

#95 Stanford Cardinal
#12 in Pac 12

KEY PLAYERS
WR Connor Wedington, Senior
T Foster Sarell, Senior
C Drew Dalman, Senior
.
DE Thomas Booker, Junior
LB Curtis Robinson, Senior
CB Paulson Adebo, Senior

How unusual (and nice) to see Stanford so low. I figured Arizona and Colorado would be ranked lower, along with UCLA and Oregon State by reputation.

For the past few years Stanford's problem hasn't been one of talent, but rather lack of depth. For whatever reason, Shaw has thinned the margins of his roster so much by under-recruiting, that mid-season injuries are finally catching up to him. The starters are good, but there wasn't much behind them even before upwards of a dozen players entered the transfer portal in December and January. Their starting QB, Davis Mills, the top QB recruit of the 2017 class, mostly picked up where Costello left off once he hit the floor with injuries last season. Stanford still has the horses and schedule to make a bowl next season but they've got to play more motivated and hold up in the second half of both games and the season. Their best victory was against Washington in which they dominated TOP and kept the Huskies 2nd half possession to three. The rest of their late season games were nearly all 2nd half collapses.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 19, 2020, 05:06:45 PM

#92 Arkansas Razorbacks

#13 in SEC

I am almost always on the side of “give the guy time” when fan bases start pushing a coach out the door after two or three years. The almost is for cases like Chad Morris. It was apparent that not only hadn’t it worked, but it wasn’t going to work. He got blown out at home by Western Kentucky, and also lost at home to a bad San Jose State team, thanks to five interceptions thrown by Nick Starkel, who subsequently transferred...to San Jose State. That said, if you are going to make that move, you expect to have someone better lined up than an offensive line coach, who turns 59 during the season, and whose last coordinator or head coaching job, was at the JUCO level, in 1993. A lot of coaching hires that look like home runs on paper, fall apart; and a lot of Plan C and Ds wind up working out well. But at first glance, this doesn’t seem like the type of hire from a program that knew they were going to be firing their coach. As much as a disaster as the Morris tenure was, it’s not all on him, as Bret Bielema left the cupboard quite empty. The Razorback transfer portal activity seems to be evidence of that. Thirteen players transferred out, five transferred in, four of which came from Power Five programs. The most recognizable name is former Florida quarterback Feleipe Franks, who is going to be looked to to settle a quarterback room that was an absolute mess last year. Nick Starkel (transferred out) started 5 games, Ben Hicks (graduated, after transferring from SMU to follow Morris) started 4 games, K.J. Jefferson started 1, Jack Lindsey started 1, and John Stephen Jones started 1. They combined to complete just 49.4% of their passes, fourth worst in the nation. Franks had issues with his accuracy earlier in his career, but improved from his freshman year to his sophomore year, rising by 4%, and seeing his TD:INT ratio go from 9:8 to 24:6. Then, it was only a three game sample size, with 71 attempts, but last year he had a 76.1% completion rate before getting injured. That would have been second to only Joe Burrow over the course of a full season, granted extrapolating 71 attempts out to 300+ is certainly problematic. He will have Rakeem Boyd to lean on, the one Razorback who actually did show out last year, with 1,133 yards on 6.3 ypc. You do wonder if while maybe not going all the way to the Herm Edwards CEO/face of the program model, if they are leaning into what worked at LSU last year, with Coach Orgeron serving as the face, and leaning heavily on a pair of elite coordinators. I suppose the question is whether they have elite coordinators. They certainly paid them like they were. Kendal Briles is at his fifth offensive coordinator stop in as many years. He took Florida Atlantic from #67 to #30 in SP+ in his one year there (2017). Then in one year at Houston they went from #43 to #20 (2018). Then last year, Florida State went from #97 to #49, but new coach Mike Norvell elected not to retain Briles. Not too many 37 year olds out there with coordinating experience at five different FBS schools. The defense is now up to former Missouri coach Barry Odom, who was fired after going 25-25 in four seasons. But prior to that he was a highly thought of defensive coordinator at the school. He certainly has his work cut out for him, building basically from scratch on a unit that was worst in the SEC a year ago, and saw five senior starters graduate, and one leave early in Kamren Curl. They did add a pair of former 4* grad transfers in lineman Xavier Kelly from Clemson, and linebacker Levi Draper from Oklahoma. But the defense is a LONG ways away.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Feleipe Franks, Senior
RB	Rakeem Boyd, Senior
WR	Mike Woods, Junior
	.
LB	Bumper Pool, Junior
CB	Montaric Brown, Junior
S	Joe Foucha, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on March 19, 2020, 05:19:11 PM

Quote from: ELA on March 18, 2020, 04:48:59 PM

#93 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
#5 in Sun Belt

With a name like that they're lucky they're not below UTEP

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 19, 2020, 05:35:45 PM

It sounds like a 19th century insult

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on March 19, 2020, 06:43:08 PM

Quote from: ELA on March 19, 2020, 05:06:45 PM

#92 Arkansas Razorbacks
#13 in SEC
. . . They did add a pair of former 4* grad transfers in lineman Xavier Kelly from Clemson, and linebacker Levi Draper from Oklahoma. But the defense is a LONG ways away. . . .

Levi Draper has a ton of potential. And he'll probably still have a ton of potential 3 years from now.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on March 19, 2020, 08:46:21 PM

Quote from: ELA on March 19, 2020, 05:06:45 PM

#92 Arkansas Razorbacks
#13 in SEC
KEY PLAYERS
QB Feleipe Franks, Senior
RB Rakeem Boyd, Senior
WR Mike Woods, Junior
.
LB Bumper Pool, Junior
CB Montaric Brown, Junior
S Joe Foucha, Junior

What a name

(https://i.imgur.com/QuuYHLZ.jpg)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 08:13:20 AM

It amazes me how far Arky has fallen in the scheme of things. I'm sure it is triply difficult to recover from that far down, it's not like a temporary blip.

They typically don't schedule that tough OOC, one P5 opponent (sometimes not even). But they would still need to grab 2 conference games somehow to get bowl eligible of course if they went 4-0 OOC. UNC is back to a semblance, so perhaps Arky can do it with the right coach.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: fezzador on March 20, 2020, 08:29:37 AM

It might be a while before Arky goes back to respectability. IIRC, they're now officially paying 3 coaches (2 of whom specifically not to come anywhere near the sidelines), so their current coach they basically got on the cheap simply to buy some time before they can pony up and get a proven coach.

Arkansas is always going to fight an uphill battle in the SEC-W. The state of AR is not exactly talent-rich, so the bulk of its recruiting must be from out-of-state. Even though Texas and Louisiana have talent to spare, Arky rarely is in the running for the best-of-the-best in those states as many of them prefer to stay within the confines of their home state (or bolt for a genuine blue-blood, like Oklahoma).

They need an innovative coach to be competitive, one who thinks outside the box to win despite multiple inherent disadvantages. Mike Leach could have done well in Fayetteville, but that's too late as he just landed in StarkVegas. Maybe in a couple of years they might take a chance on Art Briles.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 09:25:34 AM

I agree they probably need a quirky offense along the lines of what GaTech had, or something, to get to bowl eligible, where they can start to attract some decent players. I doubt they compete with Bama and LSU in a long long time.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 20, 2020, 10:31:24 AM

#91 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

#14 in ACC

The problem with adopting a system like Georgia Tech did in hiring Paul Johnson, is not just the amount of time it takes to convert to the system, but the amount of time it takes to transition out of it. You’ve got a run-first quarterback depth chart, out of whack running back/receiver roster splits, and a bunch of smaller linemen who are taught to cut block. Maybe the fact that Paul Johnson got things humming so quickly on the front end, it misled Jacket fans as to just how tough the rebuild would be on the back end. Johnson finished 9-4, ranked #22, with a Peach Bowl trip in his first season; and then won a conference title in his second. It was just the third conference title for the school since 1952, when they were in the SEC. It certainly seems like Georgia Tech fans do have realistic expectations (or maybe they just don’t care), because reading the media members who cover them, there is still a ton of positivity surrounding the program. That’s good because expecting Geoff Collins to have similar Year 2 results seems well beyond a reach, after a 3-9 debut, that opened with a 52-14 loss to Clemson, and closed with a 52-7 loss to Georgia. He’s certainly selling positivity on the recruiting trail, bringing in a first full class that ranked #26 overall and #5 in the ACC, best of the school since their 2007 class which ranked #15 and #3, and helped form the nucleus of their 2009 ACC Championship team, with guys like Josh Nesbitt, Jonathan Dwyer, Morgan Burnett, and Derrick Morgan. Just getting to a bowl this year would be a major win, and getting there starts on defense. The Yellow Jackets were respectable on that side of the ball a year ago, with one of the youngest units in the nation. They return 10 starters, and only Rice returns more defensive production from a year ago than Georgia Tech. Bill Connelly projects it to be a top 35 defense in 2020, led by cornerback Tre Swilling, son of Rambling Wreck legend Pat Swilling, who played at the school in the 80s, before a stellar NFL career. The best part might be that the Yellow Jackets don’t have to worry about wasting this defense in a year where the offense will be a mess, because 7 of those 10 returning starters, will still have eligibility in 2021. And, oh boy, the offense looks like it will still be a mess. Collins finally just decided to ride with redshirt freshman James Graham, and that ride was wild. Graham had nine starts, and exactly one of them resulted in a QBR between 35 and 70. He had two starts above 70, going 22-37 for 358 yards (9.68 ypa), 5 touchdowns, 1 interception; and another 154 rushing yards (77 ypg) and 2 rushing touchdowns. The other six starts? 51-130 for 617 yards (4.75 ypa), 5 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and just 96 rushing yards (16 ypg). Maybe they’ll just run the ball every play, now that they can pair returning Jordan Mason, who had 899 rushing yards on 5.2 ypa, with no help, with incoming true freshman Jahmyr Gibbs, the #75 overall recruit and #8 running back recruit in the country. He’s the Yellow Jackets’ highest rated offensive recruit since Calvin Johnson. No pressure.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	James Graham, Sophomore
RB	Jordan Mason, Junior
G	Jack DeFoor, Senior
	.
LB	David Curry, Senior
CB	Tre Swilling, Junior
CB	Kaleb Oliver, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on March 20, 2020, 11:17:39 AM

I don't see how GT can surpass mediocre by being traditional. The ACC is the last conference represented here.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 22, 2020, 10:59:07 AM

Forgot to post yesterday

#90 Western Michigan Broncos

#5 in MAC

Western Michigan had to have felt like they wasted a chance in 2019, by losing the season finale at a 4-7 Northern Illinois team, whose star running back quit the team the week of the game, and costing the Broncos a slot in the conference championship game. With a senior all-conference starting quarterback/running back combo departing, 2020 seemed like a reboot season...and then they looked around at the rest of their division. Granted, yes, Toledo and Northern Illinois typically recruit well enough that you might expect them to be better than a typical MAC team coming off the seasons they are, with the returning production they have. But honestly, the only team in the MAC West that has fewer questions on paper, is a Ball State team that hasn’t been to a bowl game in years. Bill Connelly projects the entire division to finish between 5-3 and 3-5, so the margin for error is slim, that’s why figuring out that offensive backfield early is vital. That’s a big if. All they have to replace is quarterback Jon Wassink, a three year starter, and Wuerffel Award winner; and running back LeVante Bellamy, a two-time First Team All-MAC honoree, who finished second in the conference in rushing last year, and leaves Kalamazoo as the only player to be top three in both total rushing yards, and yards per carry. The running game should continue to be fine with Sean Tyler, who actually averaged more ypc (5.7) than Bellamy (5.5) last year, while finishing second on the team with 390 rushing yards. Then they add a pair of transfers in LaDarius Jefferson who was the starter at Michigan State for a time, and Jaxson Kincaide, who was Nevada’s second leading rusher in 2016 and 2017. They get to run behind a veteran offensive line that returns four starters, including a pair of All-Conference performers. The quarterback spot is a lot more dicey, with Kaleb Eleby being the most likely initial starter. Eleby played in five games in 2018, including four starters, when Wassink was injured, and actually filled in fairly well, completing 62.6% of his passes and 218.4 ypg. But he redshirted last year, so it will have been nearly two years since he’s seen any sort of game action at all. Really the only competition he has is from Purdue transfer Griffin Alstott, son of Mike Alstott, who saw a little mop up duty last year. If Skyy Moore can build upon his surprise breakout freshman season, that allows Tim Lester to fully commit to D’Wayne Eskridge playing defense. Eskridge is a two way player, who is probably the Broncos’ best athlete, but is seemingly slightly better on the defensive side. With All-MAC Patrick Lupro opposite him at corner, the addition of Eskridge on defense gives Western Michigan a chance to have the best defense in the league. They were second in scoring defense and fifth in ypp last year. But their pass defense allowed a MAC worst 67% completion rate (5th worst nationally), and relied too heavily on the MAC’s second highest interception rate. If they can run Lupro-Eskridge full time, there is zero excuse for a repeat of that.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Skyy Moore, Sophomore
T	Jaylon Moore, Senior
G	Mike Caliendo, Senior
	.
DE	Ali Fayed, Senior
LB	Treshaun Hayward, Senior
CB	Patrick Lupro, Junior

#89 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

#7 in Mountain West

Whoever first said football is won in the trenches, probably didn’t look at the best Hawaii teams of recent vintage in making that proclamation. But for the Rainbow Warriors this year, they better hope that’s the case. Losing three of their best four receivers to graduation was planned for, but then to have quarterback Cole McDonald announce he was leaving early was not expected. Todd McShay has McDonald rated as the #174 overall prospect, the #10 quarterback, a projected borderline 5th/6th round pick. But maybe he looked at who he’d be throwing to, and decided there was no way his stock was going to be higher next year. Or maybe once head coach Nick Rolovich left he looked at basically what every Hawaii coach except June Jones and Rolovich had done at the school, and decided the odds were not in his favor. It’s now or never for uber talented, but thus far disappointing Marquise Stovall. Stovall committed to Cal over USC and Oregon, with some rankings having him as the #1 receiver in the country, and looked the part of a lethal slot threat. He had an underwhelming freshman campaign in Berkeley, then played one game his sophomore season, before being inexplicably shut down, for suspension...injury…? He then left Cal, spent a year at JUCO, then re-emerged last year at Hawaii. Through five games he had 18 receptions for 248 yards and 4 touchdowns...before being kicked off the team. But he is now listed on the spring roster, and his social media accounts seem to indicate he’s on the team. The kid is running out of chances, but in the partial season he played last year he showed that he can still be a threat, even though he’s only played in six NCAA games over the past three seasons. If he’s not lacing them up, Hawaii has Jared Smart, and not much else? The next leading returning receiver is Lincoln Victor, with 10 receptions. Calvin Turner Jr., a PFF FCS All-American transfer from Jacksonville is an intriguing option. He spent parts of his three years at Jacksonville as a defensive back, the starting quarterback, and a running back. However it seems like Hawaii might be looking at him as a receiver. No matter what, he should be a needed infusion of athleticism. So back to those trenches. Hawaii returns their entire starting line, including three All-Mountain West players, being both tackles and the center, from a line that was very solid run blocking, and top 25 nationally in pass blocking. What type of offense Hawaii will run, who knows? They’ve been known as a pass happy team, 4th in the nation last year, passing the ball 61.5% of the time. New coach Todd Graham has been all over the place in that regard, but his offensive coordinator choice, his former player G.J. Kinne. Who knows. Kinne is only 31 years old, and let alone having no coordinating experience, he has no real assistant coaching experience. Just retired from the CFL in 2016, after a 4 year run as an NFL practice squad player, and spent his three years in coaching as a graduate assistant (2017 at SMU under Chad Morris), an offensive analyst (2018 at Arkansas under Chad Morris), and “special projects,” whatever that means (2019 with the Philadelphia Eagles). Maybe he’s just there to run Todd Graham’s offense, but that hasn’t really ever been Graham’s M.O. Quite the opposite in fact. Graham’s last four offensive coordinators, going back to 2010; Billy Napier, Chip Lindsey, Mike Norvell, Chad Morris, have used the role as a stepping stone to their own head coaching job.

	KEY PLAYERS
T	Ilm Manning, Junior
T	Gene Pryor, Senior
C	Taaga Tuulima, Senior
	.
DT	Blessman Ta'ala, Junior
CB	Cortez Davis, Senior
S	Khoury Bethley, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 23, 2020, 12:31:43 PM

Sunday

#88 Maryland Terrapins

#13 in Big Ten

This might be one of the hardest teams to get a read on going into 2019. The early returns, at least internally, on bringing Mike Locksley back seemed solid. He was recruiting well, and then Maryland got into the top 20 fueled by a high powered offense through two games. They went on to lose 9 of their final 10 games, beating only lowly Rutgers; and in those 9 losses they scored a TOTAL of 113 points (12.6 ppg), only scoring more than 17 once. They scored 142 points in just their first two games. Then the Terps saw 20 players enter the transfer portal. They do get quarterback Josh Jackson back, who started 9 games last year, but after a lightning start, he was awful as well over the final three quarters of the season. In those opening two games, he completed 58% of his passes at 8.7 ypa, and 7 touchdowns to go with 1 interception. Over the rest of the season, he completed just 42.8%, at 5.05 ypa, with 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. His highest QBR in any single game, other than Rutgers, over the final 10 games was against Michigan State, at 24.4. Just for comparison purposes, only two qualified FBS quarterbacks had season marks lower than Jackson’s best game. He does have a really good pair of receivers to work with, as Jeshaun Jones returns from his season long injury to pair with All-Big Ten Dontay Demus Jr., and they add Rakim Jarrett, a late flip, who was rated as the #4 receiver in the nation. But if Jackson doesn’t get a whole lot more accurate, that won’t matter. The Terps have also had a parade of talented running backs come through campus lately, but with both Javon Leake and Anthony McFarland Jr. moving onto the NFL, that spot is wide open. Senior Tayon Fleet-Davis is the most experienced, and they add Michigan transfer Jordan Castleberry, but it might be a freshman who emerges there. Barring some sort of injury, I think either 4* Peny Boone from Michigan or Isaiah Jacobs from Oklahoma is getting the most carries come Halloween. Time will also tell if the youth movement on the offensive line, which struggled (in connection with the quarterbacks’ propensity to hold the ball too long) to pass block. Most promising is Jaelyn Duncan who took over the starting left tackle position in Week 2 as a freshman, and never relinquished it. I’m guessing the list of Power Five schools who started a freshman at left tackle, for non injury reasons, for 11 games is pretty short. Even with the loss of Antoine Brooks Jr., Maryland seems fairly well positioned in the back seven, led by another sophomore, although this one a true sophomore, safety Nick Cross. Staying healthy in the back is the major pressing concern with seven of the twenty transfers coming from the secondary. While the Terrapin pass defense was second worst in the Big Ten to Rutgers in almost every metric, the bigger issue was a pass rush that was non-existent. Keandre Jones was the only player to tally more than 2 sacks on the season; and the issue does not look to be resolved, with the three players from the defense who had more than one (Brett Kulka had 2, Keiron Howard had 1.5), all departing.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Josh Jackson, Senior
WR	Dontay Demus Jr., Junior
T	Jaelyn Duncan, Sophomore
	.
LB	Ayinde Eley, Junior
LB	Chance Campbell, Junior
S	Nick Cross, Sophomore

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on March 23, 2020, 12:41:23 PM

another one bites the dust

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on March 23, 2020, 12:50:50 PM

It would be fun post season to list the three teams that exceeded expectations and why, and the reverse of this. UMd and Rutger somewhat mirror Vandy and Arkansas, but I think the former two could improve faster than Vandy.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 23, 2020, 02:47:23 PM

#87 Kent State Golden Flashes

#4 in MAC

Getting a third season out of Sean Lewis is already a win for the program. A Year Four, considering the trajectory of the program, seems increasingly unlikely. The Golden Flashes closed the year on a 4 game winning streak, which included a 51-41 win over Utah State in the Frisco Bowl, the program’s first bowl game in seven years, and their first ever bowl win. Maybe the plan of the administration is to schedule Lewis into an artificially bad season. Instead of trying to schedule their way into a bowl, Kent State has road games at Kentucky, at Penn State and at Alabama, all in September. Guess they can use all those paydays on Lewis’ raise? The issue, aside from basically ensuring in the preseason that you have to go 6-3 otherwise to make a bowl, is that stringing those opponents so close together, is the chance of entering conference play with a lengthy injury report. Auburn transfer quarterback Woody Barrett was supposed to be the guy to elevate Lewis’ offense to the next level. Instead he found himself as the backup to Dustin Crum. While that raised some eyebrows, particularly considering the offseason headlines of Barrett making a September return to Jordan Hare, but as a visitor, Crum proved his coach correct, leading the MAC in completion percentage, passing efficiency, and TD:INT ratio. He also led the team in rushing, even accounting for lost yards on sacks. Even more than his passing ability, it was his efforts in carrying the run game that was probably even more needed, because Kent State rotated through four backs, none of whom really separated themselves. The most disappointing had to have been senior Jo-El Shaw, who went from All-MAC to fourth on the team in rushing. The most effective was true freshman Joachim Bangda, who ran for 7.0 ypc on Baltimore high school powerhouse St. Frances Academy, but somehow found his way to Kent State. His 247 page lists offers from schools such as Alabama, Ohio State and Wisconsin; so maybe we’ve got some academic issues at play. However he got to Kent State, he’s there now, and there’s no excuse for him to get only 45 carries again this year, when he’s averaging 6.2 ypc. All this kid does is produce. Sean Lewis is a Dino Babers disciple, serving as his offensive coordinator at both Bowling Green, and then Syracuse, from 2015-2017, so we know defense is going to be an afterthought, and based on tempo, 51-41 finals don’t mean what they mean everywhere. But they’ve got to be a little better than allowing 6.3 ypp, which is actually a negative difference compared to their offense. If they can at least get that number down under 6 ypp, this team could actually be in the conversation to get to Detroit. Hell, if they were in the West, they’d already be there. The cornerbacks should be a lot better, with Keith Sherald Jr., who led the team in interceptions a year ago, being joined by Nebraska grad transfer Tony Butler. The Golden Flashes surrendered 8.5 ypa last year, second worst in the MAC, despite having one of the better pass rushes. That four game winning streak to end the season, could have been six out of seven, with a divisional title, if they can just not lose games 38-45 and 33-35.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Dustin Crum, Senior
WR	Isaiah McKoy, Junior
K	Matthew Trickett, Junior
	.
LB	Mandela Lawrence-Burke, Senior
LB	Cepeda Phillips, Senior
CB	Keith Sherald Jr., Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 23, 2020, 06:58:16 PM

In the race to the bottom, the Mac has nosed ahead of CUSA and the Sunbelt.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on March 24, 2020, 09:22:30 AM

Is the P5 count now 2 for the B1G and SEC and one for the others?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 24, 2020, 11:03:28 AM

#86 Houston Cougars

#9 in American

Houston felt on the cusp of big boy things, landing Ed Oliver, and playing in the New Years Six. But like Houston had occasionally in its history, every time it was on the cusp of playing with the big boys, the big boys swooped in and picked them apart. This time, the Cougars decided they were going to spend like the big boys, poaching a Power Five school’s coach, in West Virginia’s Dana Holgorson. The early returns? Not favorable. Houston stumbled to a 4-8 season, their worst since 2004, and his two best players quit the team. Holgorson is an offensive guy, and while their offense was fine, it’s going to be a whole lot better if this is the joke of a defense he is going to roll out. While the stated reason for D’Eriq King’s decision, at least initially, was a decision to play for 2020 in a manner that we are just only now starting to be ok with at the pro level, and we’ve never heard at the college level. So while that got more media attention, that mentality carried over the defensive side of the ball. The result was a predictable train wreck, that finished second worst in the American in scoring defense, total defense, rushing defense, and...hey, third worst in passing defense. Several seniors saw their roles diminished to play some underclassmen, so now, with 8 returning starters, the hope has to be that it pays off. The Cougars return the third most defensive production in the nation. Holgorson is making too much money for Houston to just cut their losses after Year 2, so it’s probably co-defensive coordinators Doug Belk and Joe Cauthen who have more on the line. They have one mega-playmaker to work with in positionless senior Grant Stuard. Houston’s official depth chart lists him as a nickelback in a 4-2-5. But it’s really a 4-2-4, and Stuard does all sorts of different things. Houston’s official spring roster lists him as a linebacker. The AAC named him as a safety in their 2019 postseason honors. Beyond him though, very little of the youth movement showed promise. As awful as the defense was, and as fine as the offense was, the Cougars were elite on special teams. They have to replace punter Dane Roy, who was fifth in the nation in punting, but that’s it. That includes kicker Dalton Witherspoon, who was 20-24 on field goals and perfect on extra points; and an elite group of returners who took 4 back for touchdowns last year, led by Marquez Stevenson’s two kick return touchdowns. The offense has its own issues, as most of the metrics that incorporate some sort of luck factor indicate that they should have scored about 4 fewer points per game. They were not on the field that much, converting just 34.8% of their third downs, and having the second highest giveaway rate in the conference. But they averaged 30.7 ppg, with an expected scoring average 26.9, down nearly 13 ppg from 2018. Houston had a top 4 class in the American in each of the past four seasons, so even with the departures they should still have enough talent to maybe flirt with bowl eligibility, but this program feels like a mess right now. And speaking of incoming talent, the Cougars just inked their worst class in years, as Holgorson’s first complete class.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Clayton Tune, Junior
RB	Kyle Porter, Senior
WR	Marquez Stevenson, Senior
	.
DE	David Anenih, Senior
LB/S	Grant Stuard, Senior
CB	Damarion Williams, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on March 24, 2020, 12:39:51 PM

Quote from: ELA on March 24, 2020, 11:03:28 AM

#86 Houston Cougars
#9 in American
Houston felt on the cusp of big boy things, landing Ed Oliver, and playing in the New Years Six. But like Houston had occasionally in its history, every time it was on the cusp of playing with the big boys, the big boys swooped in and picked them apart. This time, the Cougars decided they were going to spend like the big boys, poaching a Power Five school’s coach, in West Virginia’s Dana Holgorson. The early returns? Not favorable. Houston stumbled to a 4-8 season, their worst since 2004, and his two best players quit the team. Holgorson is an offensive guy, and while their offense was fine, it’s going to be a whole lot better if this is the joke of a defense he is going to roll out. While the stated reason for D’Eriq King’s decision, at least initially, was a decision to play for 2020 in a manner that we are just only now starting to be ok with at the pro level, and we’ve never heard at the college level. So while that got more media attention, that mentality carried over the defensive side of the ball. The result was a predictable train wreck, that finished second worst in the American in scoring defense, total defense, rushing defense, and...hey, third worst in passing defense. Several seniors saw their roles diminished to play some underclassmen, so now, with 8 returning starters, the hope has to be that it pays off. The Cougars return the third most defensive production in the nation. Holgorson is making too much money for Houston to just cut their losses after Year 2, so it’s probably co-defensive coordinators Doug Belk and Joe Cauthen who have more on the line. They have one mega-playmaker to work with in positionless senior Grant Stuard. Houston’s official depth chart lists him as a nickelback in a 4-2-5. But it’s really a 4-2-4, and Stuard does all sorts of different things. Houston’s official spring roster lists him as a linebacker. The AAC named him as a safety in their 2019 postseason honors. Beyond him though, very little of the youth movement showed promise. As awful as the defense was, and as fine as the offense was, the Cougars were elite on special teams. They have to replace punter Dane Roy, who was fifth in the nation in punting, but that’s it. That includes kicker Dalton Witherspoon, who was 20-24 on field goals and perfect on extra points; and an elite group of returners who took 4 back for touchdowns last year, led by Marquez Stevenson’s two kick return touchdowns. The offense has its own issues, as most of the metrics that incorporate some sort of luck factor indicate that they should have scored about 4 fewer points per game. They were not on the field that much, converting just 34.8% of their third downs, and having the second highest giveaway rate in the conference. But they averaged 30.7 ppg, with an expected scoring average 26.9, down nearly 13 ppg from 2018. Houston had a top 4 class in the American in each of the past four seasons, so even with the departures they should still have enough talent to maybe flirt with bowl eligibility, but this program feels like a mess right now. And speaking of incoming talent, the Cougars just inked their worst class in years, as Holgorson’s first complete class.

KEY PLAYERS
QB Clayton Tune, Junior
RB Kyle Porter, Senior
WR Marquez Stevenson, Senior
.
DE David Anenih, Senior
LB/S Grant Stuard, Senior
CB Damarion Williams, Senior

For someone in Tulsa, Houston is an easy program to dislike. And Dana Holgorsen is a weird dude who is also easy to dislike. Tanking the 2019 season so that he can have his ducks lined up for 2020 stinks, IMO.
I don't want to see Houston go 4-8. 0-12 would be better.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on March 24, 2020, 06:43:31 PM

With his coaching days increasingly numbered in Morgantown, Holgersen’s scramble to Houston seemed like a move solely to buy his head coaching career another few years, like Riley’s weird move to Nebraska. However, he’s not bought himself any goodwill in Houston. For a term so readily used at the pro level (tanking for Tua), was last year the first where a college program so openly tanked?? And what exactly was the logic? Redshirting to save players for this coming season? Such a dumb risk.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 25, 2020, 05:17:57 PM

#85 Ohio Bobcats

#3 in MAC

Nathan Rourke departs Athens as the best quarterback in school history, after three years as the starter. Who replaces him is truly completely wide open. Junior Drew Keszei was listed as #2 on the depth chart last year, but he only got into two games, attempting just one pass. Joe Mischler and Naylan Yates hit the transfer portal, leaving the only other quarterbacks on the roster as Nathan’s younger brother, redshirt freshman Kurtis Rourke, and incoming freshman C.J. Harris, who did not enroll early. Quarterback might be the only thing standing between Frank Solich and an elusive first MAC title. For as much as Solich has done for the school, including four conference championship trips (obviously all losses), eleven consecutive top three divisional finishes (including six consecutive top two finished), the fact that he hasn’t yet won a MAC title is frankly (pun originally unintended, but then left in place once realized) shocking. The bobcats return skill position talent galore otherwise, including all four running backs they used, led by O’Shaan Allison, who was the breakout star, averaging 6.3 ypc, and leading the team with 869 yards. It wasn’t just Allison though as the Bobcats average 5.5 ypc as a team, best in the MAC, and #7 nationally. Allison, along with De’Montre Tuggle and Ja’Vahri Portis combined for 6.3 ypc on 267 carries. They did that running behind an offensive line that featured three All-MAC seniors though, so they may find the running lanes a little more narrow. It’s not just the ball carriers that return a deep stable, as the Bobcats return their top 6 receivers and all three tight ends who played. The only player they’ll be missing from that room is D.L. Knock, who was an all-conference caliber returner, but only had 4 receptions on the season. The defense allowed 5.8 ypp, but only loses two starters off one of the 20 youngest defense in the country a year ago. The main problems were on the line, which is odd considering they had three seniors in the rotation. The back seven featured just two seniors in their entire two deep. And that unit ranked fourth in the MAC in ypa allowed, completion percentage allowed, and defensive passing efficiency, in spite of a very substandard pass rush. If there are any nits to pick with the secondary, it’s their cement hands, with the fifth worst interceptions rate in the FBS, only five picks on the season (1.06%). Two of those five interceptions were by role players in blowouts, nobody had more than one, and of the five, only two generated any return yardage (one of 9 and one of 14). All three of their conference losses came by 3 points, one of which was in overtime, all three times involving Ohio’s opponent getting the final score of the game to win. You’d hope going from one of the youngest defenses in the country, to one with 9 returning starters would flip some of those. The Bobcats get Buffalo at home, but they have to travel to Oxford for the Battle of the Bricks, which could decide the division, and in a year where the divisional balance is this lopsided, may be a de facto MAC Championship Game.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	O'Shaan Allison, Sophomore
WR	Isiah Cox, Junior
TE	Ryan Luehrman, Senior
	.
DE	Austin Conrad, Senior
LB	Dylan Conner, Senior
CB	Marlin Brooks, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on March 25, 2020, 05:30:23 PM

damn, Frank might have tough season

hopefully not

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 25, 2020, 06:28:05 PM

Ohio (the state) is in serious trouble. 3/4 of their teams have already burst onto the scene. Up to its armpits in the wood chipper. Only two teams remain. Pretty sure they are in the worst shape of any of the 5+ team states.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 25, 2020, 06:35:00 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 25, 2020, 06:28:05 PM

Ohio (the state) is in serious trouble. 3/4 of their teams have already burst onto the scene. Up to its armpits in the wood chipper. Only two teams remain. Pretty sure they are in the worst shape of any of the 5+ team states.

One of the two teams carries the load for all 5, though...

When one team is top-5, it excuses a lot from the others.

The state of Indiana can't claim that. Yeah, they've got a lot of teams remaining in this thing, but are unlikely to have anyone top 20, right?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 25, 2020, 06:42:53 PM

Not ND?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on March 25, 2020, 06:44:46 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 25, 2020, 06:42:53 PM

Not ND?

Yeah, they'll probably be top 20. They are perennially overrated, after all.

(Thanks for taking the bait.)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 25, 2020, 07:46:21 PM

So for the 5+ team states...

Alabama has lost 2/5
California is down 3/7; SDSU has beaten out at least Stanford (G5 over P5).
Florida is down 2/7
Louisiana is down 2/5
Michigan is down 3/5
N Carolina is down 2/7
Ohio is down 6/8
Texas is down 6/12; with a pretty big gap between Houston and their bottom 5.

Other notable goings on...
New Mexico, Connecticut, Hawaii and New Jersey have been entirely eliminated. All are one team states except NM, who was out of this thing faster than Kramer in "The Contest."
States where the G5 is outlasting the P5: Arkansas and Maryland are two team states where little brother is ruling the roost. In Tennessee Memphis has already outlasted Vandy, and is probably pretty well poised to finish ahead of the Vols as well.

The rest of the states appear to be getting their teams ranked in the order that one might expect. So far.

Remaining one team states: Idaho, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Wyoming. Who drops first?
2+ team states that are down to their final at bat: Arkansas (stAte), Kansas (KSU), Maryland (Navy), Massachusetts (BC) and Nevada (Reno). Who drops first?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 25, 2020, 08:35:02 PM

All three directional MI schools are gone

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on March 25, 2020, 08:40:47 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 25, 2020, 06:28:05 PM

Ohio (the state) is in serious trouble. 3/4 of their teams have already burst onto the scene. Up to its armpits in the wood chipper. Only two teams remain. Pretty sure they are in the worst shape of any of the 5+ team states.

Huh? 🧐

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 25, 2020, 08:59:18 PM

Quote from: CatsbyAZ on March 25, 2020, 08:40:47 PM

Huh? 🧐

SMUw hasn't outlasted a TX P5 yet, but as the only remaining G5 in that state, there's still a chance.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 26, 2020, 11:51:56 AM

#84 Syracuse Orange

#13 in ACC

I am wrong in these write ups more than I am right, but even among my years of documented incorrect opinions, my Syracuse 2019 take may have been my worst. I had them as a borderline top 10 team, with a one game season, at home against Clemson. I picked them to win that one game, go 13-0, and play in the College Football Playoff. Instead the Orange didn’t even make it to that September 14 game undefeated, getting smoked the week before, 63-20 at Maryland, and then lost 41-6 to Clemson anyway. At least after losing their first six Power 5 games, they closed with winning two of three to at least get a little momentum going into 2020. The way the schedule breaks, the Orange have a chance to keep that momentum rolling early in the year, with the first half including home games against Colgate, Liberty and Louisville; plus road games at Boston College, Rutgers and Western Michigan. Going 5-1 in that stretch, before a trip to Death Valley, is certainly possible, as is going 2-4. That would be disastrous heading into a second half with road games at Clemson, Pitt and Wake Forest, and a home game against Florida State. The defense was bad, but the defense was bad in 2019 as well. The problem was I put way too much faith in the Dino Babers offense simply being plug and play. Maybe it is, a little bit from a skill position standpoint. But oh boy, that offensive line made the entire thing collapse. They surrendered a sack rate of 12.0%, in an offense designed to get the ball out quickly. In obvious passing downs, that’s one thing, but even on standard downs, they were 3.6% in 2018. They also fell from a top 25 run blocking team (top 10 in stuff rate), to a bottom third run blocking team. Moe Neal was able to at least make something out of it, but nobody else, including Oklahoma transfer Abdul Adams, or quarterback Tommy DeVito, did, combining for just 3.0 ypc. With Neal graduated, the running back situation looks bleak. The receiver situation is not a ton better, with Sean Riley graduating, and Michigan State transfer Trishton Jackson going pro a year early. They do get Taj Harris back, and he seemed to really start to come on late, with 13 receptions coming in Syracuse’s final two games; after just 24 all season prior. And that offensive line, which was useless last year, could bounce right back. Left tackle Evan Adams graduated; but the other four starters last year were comprised of two freshmen and two sophomores, including one true freshman at right tackle, in Matthew Bergeron. Those guys return, and they add Florida transfer Chris Bleich to the mix. The issues surrounding campus shutdowns this spring hurts Syracuse more than most, after they hired three new coordinators. Three? Yeah, they hired a new defensive coordinator, who converted to a 3-3-5 system, and then left for Mississippi State. They had a late in game flip to Tony White, more because he learned the 3-3-5 under Rocky Long at San Diego State than because he was necessarily their first choice. At least on offense there is a little more familiarity, hiring away McNeese State head coach Sterlin Gilbert, who had been Babers’ offensive coordinator before, at Eastern Illinois and then Bowling Green from 2012-2014. Defensive coordinator change or not, the defensive situation looks to go from bad to worse. Aside from Andre Cisco, there is no certainty. You take one of the 25 worst defenses in FBS based upon ypp allowed, and give them the 10th lowest returning production, that’s the result.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Tommy DeVito, Junior
WR	Taj Harris, Junior
K	Andre Szmyt, Junior
	.
DT	Josh Black, Senior
S	Andre Cisco, Junior
S	Eric Coley, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 26, 2020, 05:13:44 PM

Pretty sure NY is down to just Buffalo now.

How could a Mac team be the best team in a three team state? (Usually that only happens to Illinois.)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: fezzador on March 27, 2020, 08:18:47 AM

Or North Carolina (in that case, it's a Sun Belt team).

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 27, 2020, 02:48:18 PM

#83 Arizona Wildcats

#11 in Pac 12

Wherever the career of Kevin Sumlin goes from here, I’ll always remember him as the guy who took the most exciting player in college football, and ruined him. To his credit Khalil Tate took all of the misuse and time splitting, and didn’t bolt for another program, where he could reignite his 2016 spark. The upside is that now Tate is gone, the Wildcats can still lean on Grant Gunnell, who got plenty of action as a true freshman last year, and was clearly the better passer, and probably better fit for what Sumlin wants to do. Gunnell showed uncanny poise for an 18 year old, completing over 65% of his 155 passes, with just 1 interception, the third lowest interception rate in the country. He wasn’t the only breakout freshman star for Arizona’s offense, with redshirt freshman Jamarye Joiner leading the team in receiving yards. Aside from Johnson, the skill positions have plenty of questions. J.J. Taylor leaving a year early for the NFL leaves career backup Gary Brightwell as probably the top option at running back going into the season. The only other proven receiver option is Brian Casteel, the ultimate definition of a possession receiver, averaging just 8.8 ypr on 45 catches. Only three receivers in the country averaged fewer yards per reception on 38 or more receptions. Whether the Arizona defense, which was arguably the worst in the Pac 12, is going to be improved, starts and ends with the line, which ranked in the bottom 25 of the FBS in a number of Football Outsiders metrics. They were 6th worst in average line yards, and also tallied the 10th lowest sack rate. Arizona, Hawaii and Massachusetts were the only three defensive lines to rank in the bottom ten in both metrics, one of which measures run stopping effectiveness, the other which measures pass rush. Defensive coordinator Marcel Yates, one of the few holdovers from RichRod’s staff, has now been let go, and replaced by former Iowa State head coach Paul Rhoads, who has been defensive backs coach at UCLA the last two years, and most recently a coordinator with Arkansas in 2017. There’s little he can do with the line, he just needs to get better players in there. But the Wildcats have too much talent in the back seven to be as bad as they were. That’s where Rhoads can figure out a way to better maximize the talent, while building up the line. They are adding a pretty low priority defensive tackle grad transfer from New Mexico, Aaron Blackwell, who is still out with a knee injury, and probably won’t be cleared for any activity until the end of summer. The only freshman recruit who might break into the rotation is Regen Terry, and even that is probably asking too much. The Wildcats have sixteen scholarship defensive linemen, including seven upperclassmen. Depth isn’t the issue, finding the right pieces is. It does seem as though Rhoads is doing away with the base five defensive back defense, which had been in place in Tucson since Rich Rodriguez arrived in 2012. I certainly didn’t think three years ago, when Arizona and Arizona State made coaching changes, that Herm Edwards would be winning, and Kevin Sumlin would be on the hot seat, but I think Sumlin needs at least a bowl bid to return in 2021.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Grant Gunnell, Sophomore
WR	Jamarye Joiner, Sophomore
T	Donovan Laie, Junior
	.
LB	Colin Schooler, Senior
LB	Jalen Harris, Junior
CB	Lorenzo Burns, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 27, 2020, 06:27:12 PM

...and just like that Arizona is down to just the Sun Devils.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on March 29, 2020, 03:32:38 PM

I haven't this lowly about Arizona football since college, during the Mackovic era. Sumlin (like Mackoprick) is another overrated coach exiled from Texas, who hasn't maintained any of the recruiting connections from his time coaching A&M. His hires at for coordinators have been crap. Other than a bit of hope after a 4-1 star to last season, Sumlin has brought no buzz and lots of empty seats in Tucson. The dismissive commentary among Wildcat fans is to wait out another bad season and fire Sumlin this December, the day after his buyout drops another $2.5M.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 29, 2020, 07:43:25 PM

Saturday, day late

#82 UAB Blazers

#5 in Conference USA

Everything in the UAB rebuild was set up for 2018, and the Blazers pulled it off, with a conference title. But 2019 was supposed to be a reset year. As wrong as I was about Syracuse, I did not drop UAB nearly as much as others, still picking them to win the conference, while the media picked them fourth place...in their own division. The Blazers used a perfect home record to return to the conference championship game, and while Florida Atlantic laid them flat, the season was certainly a success, when most didn’t expect them to compete for a division title. Their New Orleans Bowl performance, a 14 point loss to a top 20 Appalachian State team, where UAB held a second half lead, was also fairly impressive. The defense looks to be absolutely stacked. They return 8 starters, including 6 of their 8 All-Conference USA players from a year ago on that side of the ball, with that group including either a pair of linemen, or a pair of linebackers, and 3/4 of the secondary. I say either linemen or linebacker because Jordan Smith’s flexibility allows defensive coordinator David Reeves to move him back at forth to match the defense, and the two-time Broyles Award nominee has been very adept at finding the perfect way to use him, leading the team in sacks and tackles for loss, 3rd and 5th in the conference respectively. The defense last year was no chopped liver, leading the conference in total defense and passing defense (in ypp), second in scoring defense and rushing defense. It’s the elite secondary that allows Reeves to play around so much up front. The Blazers allowed just 6.1 ypa on 51% completions, easily best in the conference, and 13th and 3rd best in the nation respectively. I could have taken any of them as the key player, and while statistically he might not be the obvious pick, but senior cornerback T.D. Marshall is the leader on that back end. If there are any small nits to pick, its that they, as an entire defense, only generated 7 interceptions, with only one player, safety Will Boler (who had 2) nabbing more than one. The offense is still a work in progress though. The pieces are there for an elite passing game, with the conference’s best pair of tackles returning, but from a line that severely underperformed last year, ranking in the bottom half of the FBS across the board by Football Outsider metrics. And they’ve got a pair of all-conference receivers, averaged 8.3 ypa, second best in the conference, yet threw the ball just 24.5 times per game, barely ahead of Charlotte for least in the conference. Now maybe some of that had to do with the 20 interceptions they threw, being a staggering 6.29% of their attempts. That was easily the worst in the nation, almost a full percent higher than Rutgers. Tyler Johnson III likely remains the starter, but it he should be a bigger threat with his running than he was last year. The Blazers cycled through three running backs a year ago, none of whom were particularly effective, but a lot of that had to do with how terrible the interior of the offensive line was.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Austin Watkins Jr., Senior
WR	Myron Mitchell, Senior
T	Colby Raglund, Senior
	.
DE	Jordan Smith, Junior
LB	Kristopher Moll, Senior
CB	T.D. Marshall, Senior

#81 Southern Miss Golden Eagles

#4 in Conference USA

While Southern Miss maybe pulled the trigger on Ellis Johnson too quickly, after one 0-12 season, I was a little surprised to see Jay Hopson get a fifth season, the way things are now, after four thoroughly mediocre seasons. He’s been bowl eligible every season, but never lost fewer than 5 games, and never finished higher than third in the division. While receiver Quez Watkins’ decision to forego his senior years certainly hurts, the Golden Eagles’ passing attack should continue to be lethal, particularly if Jaylond Adams, who might be the best returner in the nation, can step up as a receiver as well, because even without Watkins, Tim Jones is probably going to be a preseason all-conference player. Jones was a 1st team All-American receiver in high school by some publications, but his small frame scared some bigger players away, including Alabama, who recruited him early, but never offered. The talent has always been there though. Plus they have senior Jack Abraham running the show, after leading the conference in passing, and finishing second in efficiency. His only issue is interceptions, which he threw 15 of. That was third most in the country, but most guys who throw interceptions at that rate, don’t keep their jobs. The defense has a chance to take a major step forward, with plenty of returning individual talent. But they had all of that individual talent, and it simply didn’t mesh, allowing 26.2 ppg, squarely in the middle of the conference. The Golden Eagles, however, were much closer to being a very good defense, but simply couldn’t translate it into scoring defense. They allowed 10 plays of 50 yards or more, and had a secondary that despite allowing a completion percentage below 60%, surrendered conference worst 8.4 ypa and 27 passing touchdowns. That equates to a fourth worst in the FBS rate of 14.7 ypc. Oddly that’s also only the second worst mark in the state (wait your turn Bulldogs). You cut down on the big plays, and you flip the turnover numbers, after finishing worst in the conference, 8th worst nationally, in 2019, and you can easily see the makings of a division winner. There are going to be multiple preseason all-conference players at every level, the defensive talent is that good. That may seem like a low bar for a school that won a third of the conference titles in the first fifteen years of its existence (1996-2011), particularly is a far worse version of the conference, but Southern Miss hasn’t even won a division title in five years, going on nine since the last of those five conference titles.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Jack Abraham, Senior
WR	Tim Jones, Junior
G	Arvin Fletcher, Senior
	.
DE	Jacques Turner, Senior
LB	Swayze Bozeman, Senior
S	Ky

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 29, 2020, 08:44:47 PM

#80 Utah State Aggies

#6 in Mountain West

Gary Andersen inherited a world of (Mountain West caliber) talent, and yet the coach who built the program into a solid Mountain West school in his last go around, completely squandered it. The Aggies had three preseason All-Americans last year, plus quarterback Jordan Love, MWC preseason player of the year. All of that talent managed to go 7-6, including a 35 point loss to Boise State, in what was billed preseason as the de facto conference title game, and a 51-41 loss to Kent State in the Frisco Bowl. Now, Love has departed early for the NFL, as has standout linebacker David Woodward, and Gary Andersen’s first full recruiting class in his return to Logan, ranked #118 overall in the FBS, and #9 in the Mountain West. Gary Andersen in Logan Pt. II, is probably not yet the disaster that Randy Edsall in Storrs Pt. II is, but it’s not far behind. The one impact recruit Utah State did reel in is running back John Gentry from Houston, who chose the Aggies over Power Five offers from Arkansas and Utah. He should help bolster a run game that averaged just 4.3 ypc, and had only 18 rushing touchdowns, third lowest in the Mountain West. With Jordan Love moving on, getting a ground game going becomes even more critical. Henry Colombi got the most run last year, among the possible replacements, getting action in 6 games. While he only attempted 29 passes, he completed 69% of them, at a higher efficiency than Love did. 29 mop up passing attempts is a far cry from the 400+ that the starter will get this year. Whatever issues the offense had in 2019, the fall from being in the discussion for best Group of Five team in 2018, to also run in 2019, was spearheaded by the defense, that gave up 0.7 ypp more last year, falling from #30 nationally to #80. Andersen stuck with Justin Ena, who was in his first year as a coordinator at the FBS level, trusting him for a second year. But considering five seniors graduated, and David Woodward, the anchor, left early for the NFL, it’s hard to see any improvement coming on paper. Any hope comes from their 42 year old coordinator figuring some things out. Safety Shaq Bond is really the only proven playmaker Utah State has on that side of the ball, and he was the best player on a secondary that surrendered 7.7 ypa, third worst in the conference. The front seven has so many issues, that if the back end has as poor a year as they did a year ago, the defense should be a complete disaster. With everything I’ve laid out for Utah State, it might be fairly surprising to see them still as a borderline bowl team, in the middle of the pack in the Mountain West. While I don’t think Andersen is going to succeed in his second go round, he did inherit a fair amount of talent. Last year the Aggies were probably second only to Boise State in terms of NFL talent within the Mountain West. They may still be there this year, although the gap has grown. The program is certainly trending in the wrong direction, but you should probably be able to ride out one more bowl caliber season off of what was left in the tank.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Jaylen Warren, Senior
WR	Savon Scarver, Senior
C	Demytrick Ali'fua, Senior
	.
DE	Nick Heninger, Senior
S	Shaq Bond, Senior
S	Troy Lefeged Jr., Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on March 29, 2020, 11:14:47 PM

So Bama, Michigan, S Carolina and Mississippi are each down to just their 2 P5 teams, while Utah is down to just the Utes and BYU.

I'd predict that the order of those four states losing their top two teams will be: Mississippi, Utah, Michigan, Bama and S Carolina.

The Utes should probably be ranked ahead of the Wolverines after winning the last three games in that series against three different HCs, but the Wolverines will most likely get a helmet bump that noses them ahead of the Utes.

One or both of the MS teams might also benefit from an SEC bump that could maybe elevate them up above one or both of the Utes/Wolverines. Or not.

Bama isn't getting beat out by anyone in that particular clown car. At least not in the ELA preseason rankings. But they are the only one with a prayer of getting ranked ahead of Clemson.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on March 30, 2020, 06:36:41 AM

Ohio State has a decent shot at starting out Numero Uno in some polls. It looks like the same old top three though. There looks to be a drop off at #4 (to me anyway). Round up a usual suspect.

I hope we are talking about this in October. Things look rather grim from where I sit right now.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 30, 2020, 04:08:30 PM

#79 Tulane Green Wave

#8 in American

The trajectory of Tulane football under Willie Fritz was obvious, and after a share of a division title in 2018, 2019 was supposed to be the big payoff, with an outside shot at their first conference title since that Tommy Bowden-Shaun King 1998 team. Instead, they stumbled to a 3-5 conference record, losing five of their final six regular season games, four games out of first in the division, and just a game out of last. This is the school’s first consecutive bowl births since 1979 and 1980, their first consecutive winning seasons in over two decades, and Willie Fritz is now the first coach in school history to coach in two bowl games. But considering what the trajectory appeared to be, and what was on the horizon for 2020, 2019 certainly feels like a big miss at a place where opportunities to win conference titles truly are once a generation things. And what exactly is on the horizon? A senior laden offense, that was the fourth most efficient in the American, and the second most effective running attack, behind only Navy, is now fitting in new pieces nearly across the board at the skill positions. Graduated are starting quarterback Justin McMillan (who was also the team’s leading rusher), starting running back Darius Bradwell, and both starting receivers. The running back situation is probably in fine shape, as Corey Dauphine and Amare Jones are both back, combining for 133 carries a year ago, with over 7.1 ypc; far better than Bradwell’s averages on 111 carries. They also have the benefit of running behind a line that returns three starters from a consensus top 15 run blocking line by any metric. Jones is also a real threat in the passing game, finishing third on the team with 34 receptions and 367 yards. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fritz split Jones out a little bit more this year, just to get both of them on the field together as much as possible, and because aside from tight end Tyrick James, the pass catching options are unknowns. They are hoping Oklahoma grad transfer Mykel Jones can add a boost. Jones showed a lot of promise in his freshman and sophomore seasons in Norman, but saw his role reduced to basically nothing over the past two seasons. To sum it up, Jones had 6 receptions in his first game as a freshman, and 4 in his junior and senior seasons combined. The race to replace Justin McMillan under center appears to be wide open. Fifth year senior Keon Howard is the one player with experience, but it was just four games of backup duty a year ago. The challenge may come from incoming true freshman Michael Pratt from Deerfield Beach, Florida, part of Tulane’s highest rated class under Fritz. Speaking of incoming true freshmen, New Orleans home town defensive end Angelo Anderson, a consensus top 500 recruit, spurned Tennessee, Colorado, Arkansas and Kansas State to become the Green Waves’ second highest rated signee of the 247 era. He should immediately bolster a pass rush that generated just 1.6 sacks per game, third worst in the conference. If he can step right in and contribute, opposite rush end Patrick Johnson, there’s a good chance the Wave go from one of the worst pass rushes in the conference to one of the best. The secondary looks to be solid, so a big step forward from the front seven could really help bouey the regression from the offense.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Corey Dauphine, Senior
TE	Tyrick James, Junior
G	Corey Dublin, Senior
	.
DE	Patrick Johnson, Senior
S	Chase Kuerschen, Senior
S	Larry Brooks, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on March 31, 2020, 11:43:52 AM

#78 Nevada Wolf Pack

#5 in Mountain West

Since winning a share of the 2010 WAC Championship with Colin Kaepernick, the Wolfpack have sort of wandered through mediocrity for a decade. 2020 looks like the year they could re-emerge as a conference contender. They miss the two best Mountain Division teams (Boise State and Air Force) as crossover opponents, and their primary contender for the West Division crown, San Diego State, has to come to Reno. At first 2019 looked like it may be that season, with a season opening upset of Purdue. A Week 2 77-6 loss to Oregon reset expectations in a hurry though. Saying this team looks primed to take a big step forward in 2020, may seem like a bit of a leap, considering that looking at the numbers, their 7-6 record in 2019 seems a little puffed up. Out of 12 Mountain West teams, Nevada finished 11th in ypp and 9th in ypp allowed, in the bottom three in both scoring offense and scoring defense. They just happened to go 5-1 in one score games, with their five other losses coming by an average of 37 points. Jay Norvell made some adjustments on the coaching staff, hiring former UNLV and Bishop Gorman head coach Tony Sanchez as associate head coach, and former Syracuse defensive coordinator Brian Ward in to replace the fired Jeff Casteel. Ward brings an aggressive style, relying on a veteran group to not overplay his scheme. Ward’s 2018 Orange defense led the nation in turnovers forced, was third in tackles for a loss, and set a school record for sacks. That is music to the ears of defensive end Dom Peterson, who was second in the conference a year ago in both sacks and tackles for a loss. The only guy to finish ahead of him was Boise State’s Curtis Weaver, who left early, and projects to a second round NFL pick. We could be having that discussion next year with Peterson, who I would vote for as Mountain West preseason Defensive Player of the Year. He doesn’t have that NFL elite pass rusher size, being 3 inches shorter and 30 pounds heavier than Weaver, so he’s not the same pro prospect. But from Nevada’s standpoint, that may just mean they get two more years of him. I’m not sure what Nevada’s finances are, but maybe you can’t bring in an associate head coach, and replace BOTH coordinators, but offensive coordinator Matt Mumme remains. He has plenty of returning experience to work with, but returning talent? We’ll see. Carson Strong has all the makings of a guy who is primed to take a massive leap in the Mumme system. He certainly had his struggles, finishing 9th in the conference in pass efficiency, but he was a true freshman, playing on a team that had the conference’s worst run game. But he’s doing the things you want to do in the Air Raid system. He had a high completion percentage (63.4%, third highest in the conference), and got the ball out quickly enough (6.00% sack rate, #65 in the nation). He needs a lot more help from the run game this year. The line was awful in all aspects of run blocking aside from short yardage conversions, and Toa Taua was all-conference only because they insisted on continuing to give him the ball. Taua got 196 carries, tied for 30th in the nation, despite averaging just 4.1 ypc, easily the lowest of any back with that many carries. The next closest from any running back to average that low per carry was Deon Jackson at Duke, who had 172.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Toa Taua, Junior
WR	Romeo Doubs, Junior
K	Brandon Talton, Sophomore
	.
DE	Dom Peterson, Junior
LB	Lawson Hall, Senior
S	Tyson Williams, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 11:22:48 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on March 30, 2020, 06:36:41 AM

Ohio State has a decent shot at starting out Numero Uno in some polls.

I'd really like to believe that,not sure they'll take the East.
PS - ELA thanx with all this time these will be read twice.Just curious why do you want Houston to tank

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 01, 2020, 12:42:49 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on March 31, 2020, 11:22:48 PM

I'd really like to believe that,not sure they'll take the East.
PS - ELA thanx with all this time these will be read twice.Just curious why do you want Houston to tank

I don't want them to, but they did. At least outwardly

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 01, 2020, 02:17:46 PM

#77 South Carolina Gamecocks

#12 in SEC

Saving Will Muschamp’s job may fall squarely in the lap of Mike Bobo, who is taking the offensive coordinator helm, after being fired by Colorado State, as head coach. Prior to leaving for Fort Collins, Bobo had spent his entire football life at Georgia, since enrolling as a freshman in 1993, aside from one season as quarterbacks coach at Jacksonville State in 2000. The later years of Bobo’s tenure as Georgia’s offensive coordinator was marked by developing a lot of high level NFL Draft talent, like Matthew Stafford, Aaron Murray, A.J. Green, and Knowshon Moreno, but a largely underwhelming product. Specifically, Bobo is being brought in to groom true sophomore quarterback Ryan Hilinski. Hilinski was thrown into the fire right away last year, when Jake Bentley suffered a season ending injury in the opening loss to North Carolina. However, Bentley had another year of eligibility, and still chose to transfer to Utah, rather than return to compete with Hilinski. Muschamp isn’t exactly in a position to play for the future, so that does bode positive for where Hilinski is at in his development already. Bryan McClendon certainly did not adjust his scheme last year for Hilinski, throwing the ball 38.8 times per game, most in the SEC. When that results in closing the season by averaging 8 ppg over your final three games, scoring one offensive touchdown, it’s not surprising that he was demoted back to position coach. He then opted to take the same job with the Pittsburgh Steelers instead. It seems unlikely Hilinski will be throwing the ball any less this year with the departure of the Gamecocks’ top three rushers, and the pass-happy offense Bobo ran at Colorado State, where he retained play calling duties. Bobo did bring Colorado State quarterback Collin Hill with him, but there’s no reason to think he’ll be the starter. The receiver position is nearly as depleted as the running backs, returning Shi Smith, and not much else. Dakereon Joyner, who got the bulk of the second team snaps at quarterback a year ago, was officially listed as a receiver on the spring roster, after Muschamp hinted at such in his offseason press conferences. He has the athleticism to be an immediate contributor to an unproven group. The one positive is that the Gamecocks have an experienced offensive line, which played fairly well a year ago. The defense will depend on how well the Gamecocks can replace three starters on the defensive line, including All-SEC players in Javon Kinlaw and D.J. Wonnum. While Kinlaw got all the honors, it’s the returning Aaron Sterling who benefitted from all the attention he didn’t get, and was the more productive of the ends. We’ll see how that changes in 2020 with him on the receiving end of all of those double teams that went to his teammate last year. They’ll also get a boost from the return of Keir Thomas who was injured at the start of last season, and though he was cleared to return in late October, made the decision to take a redshirt instead, and return for his fifth season. Even if HIlinski takes a step forward, the dearth of skill position talent around him, and a schedule that includes trips to both Death Valleys in November, a bowl bid seems unlikely. In that event, it’s tough to see Muschamp getting a sixth year after back to back bowl-less seasons.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Ryan Hilinski, Sophomore
WR	Shi Smith, Senior
T	Sadarius Hutcherson, Senior
	.
DE	Aaron Sterling, Senior
LB	Ernest Jones, Junior
CB	Israel Mukuamu, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 02, 2020, 10:15:33 AM

#76 Arkansas State Red Wolves

#4 in Sun Belt

A year ago, Arkansas State had probably the best group of receivers in the Sun Belt. New offensive coordinator Keith Heckendorf rode that to the best passing game in the conference, by nearly a full yard in ypa, and by 6 points in passing efficiency. They did all that despite losing starting quarterback Caleb Bonner for the season, and replacing him with freshman Layne Hatcher. That now presents a unique problem, particularly at a mid major, where you have two great quarterbacks, assuming Bonner is 100%. Whoever wins out, presumably Bonner, will now have to function without three graduated senior receivers, including Sun Belt Player of the Year Omar Bayless, who finished second nationally with 1,653 yards. He was so good, that Kirk Merritt, who himself had 70 receptions, 806 yards, and 12 touchdowns, is a forgotten graduation. Things become a lot easier if the Red Wolves can figure out how to run the ball. They have all of the tools, there is no excuse. They return four all-conference linemen, and Marcel Murray, who had 820 yards on 4.8 ypc. The problem is nobody else was any good at all. Also, as good as Hatcher was as a freshman, he took way too many sacks, 40 of them to be precise. You might say that blame can be shared with the offensive line, except in the four games Logan Bonner played, he was never sacked. The Red Wolves allowed the 23rd most sacks in the FBS per game, but if you extrapolate the numbers when Hatcher was in, for an entire season, it is the fourth most, behind a line who allowed no sacks in 3+ games with another quarterback. If the run game improves, and the pass game can maintain the status quo, and you throw in probably the best kicker in the conference, in Blake Grupe, Arkansas State should score plenty of points. And they better, because the defense looks like it will have some issues. They return a decent number of contributors, but the few major contributors, to a defense that was in the bottom third of the Sun Belt a year ago are gone. I would guess there aren’t any other schools with 7 returning starters, that still rank in the bottom third of the FBS in returning defensive production. Offense? Sure, because the positional impact is so much more disproportionate on that side of the ball. But defense? No way. William Bradley-King at defensive end is probably the lone defender that on paper, looks to be a sure fire all-conference caliber player. The one advantage Arkansas State may have (if this season actually gets played) is that Blake Anderson decided to change up the schedule this year, and moved spring practice up, way up, to February 17. While they didn’t play a spring game, which was scheduled for March 19, they did get all of their spring practices in, except for two. They played two of their scrimmages, including on March 12, just before everything was shut down. So it may matter, it may not, but if you believe in the benefits of spring ball, Arkansas State got nearly all of theirs, including two scrimmages, in, while many schools got none.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Jonathan Adams Jr., Senior
T	Jarrett Horst, Junior
K	Blake Grupe, Junior
	.
DE	William Bradley-King, Senior
LB	Caleb Bonner, Senior
S	Antonio Fletcher, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 02, 2020, 11:28:08 AM

Arkansas and Nevada have each lost both of their teams, joining New Mexico as two-team states that have already been flushed.

"How many teams from each G5 Conference cracked the ELA Top 75?" you ask?

7 American
4 Mountain West
3 CUSA
3 Sunbelt
2 Mac
1 G5 Independent

So 20 total.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 02, 2020, 11:33:13 AM

I'm a tad surprised that USCe would be this low actually, maybe because they play us pretty tough each year usually. That program "should" be able to average something like 7-5 or 8-4 with all the talent around even if they can't compete with Clemson for now. Coaching might be important.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 02, 2020, 11:35:54 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on March 25, 2020, 07:46:21 PM

Remaining one team states: Idaho, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Wyoming. Who drops first?

2+ team states that are down to their final at bat: ~~Arkansas (stAte)~~, Kansas (KSU), Maryland (Navy), Massachusetts (BC), ~~Nevada (Reno)~~, Arizona (ASU), New York (Buffalo) and S Carolina (Clemson). Who drops first?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 03, 2020, 10:24:03 AM

#75 Tulsa Golden Hurricane

#7 in American

The good news is that Shamari Brooks, who is already fifth in school history in rushing yards, with a chance to get to #1, returned for his senior year. The bad news, is that might mean the Golden Hurricane are going to try to keep running the ball. Tulsa opened the season with -73 (yes, negative) rushing yards at Michigan State, and wound up the year averaging 3.4 ypc, worst in the AAC, 6th worst nationally. Yet they ran the over 40 times per game, putting them within the top 30 nationally. Considering Phillip Montgomery got the job for running Art Briles’ offense, going all the way back to Stephensville High School in 1997, through Baylor’s 2014 Cotton Bowl season. Yet Tulsa’s offense, going back to 2017, has ranked #76, #109 and #92 in Offensive SP+. Tulsa returns nearly everyone from that dismal offense a year ago, and it’s Year Six for Montgomery. If the offense doesn’t work this year, I don’t see any way he gets a Year 7. Tulsa only loses two starters, and while left tackle Chris Ivy Jr. is a big loss, the only other starter is wideout Keenen Johnson, who finished third on the team in receiving. Hopefully a year of development and cohesiveness helps an offensive line that was one of the ten worst in the FBS last year, but started a freshman and a pair of sophomores, and gets four starters back. Hopefully that’s good news not just for Shamari Brooks, whose talent was wasted behind it last year, but quarterback Zach Smith, who was running for his life last year, getting sacked over three times per game, on over 8% of his dropbacks. When he did have time to throw, you could see the pedigree that got him Big XII offers, including from Texas, and got him into 19 games in his time at Waco. If the offensive line is better, he’s got all the tools, and five of his six leading pass catchers are back. He would be my pick as potential breakout star in the American this year, and would fully expect to see him on some 2021 NFL Draft boards. The whole thing is a house of cards depending on whether a year of seasoning fixes a broken offensive line. The defense was middling, and fundamentally sounds, but just lacked playmakers. They were last in the conference in sacks and interceptions (with 4 of the 5 coming from the same graduated player), but had the second best third down defense, and were one of the better red zone units, forcing a conference best 6 red zone turnovers, including 3 of their league low 5 interceptions. Aside from the lack of big plays, they made too many stupid plays. For as good as their third down defense was, they surrendered 67% of their opponents’ fourth down conversions, on a very large sample size. The 1.8 fourth down conversions allowed per game was most in the nation. They were also the most penalized team in the nation, racking up just over 79 yards in penalties per game. Those types of numbers, for a defense that started 8 seniors, is inexcusable. Maybe turning that side of the roster over is for the best. And aside from linebacker Zaven Collins, the rest of the defense is a major unknown. The special teams were also awful across the board, kicking, punting, returning. The talent is there to be higher, but the issues, which individually are very fixable, are too numerous.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Zach Smith, Senior
RB	Shamari Brooks, Senior
WR	Keylon Stokes, Senior
	.
LB	Zaven Collins, Junior
CB	Allie Green IV, Senior
S	Cristian Williams, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 04, 2020, 02:17:12 PM

#74 Colorado Buffaloes

#10 in Pac 12

Coaches have come and gone since the glory days of Colorado football in the late 80s through the 90s, but the one consistent is that the team goes as the defense goes. The offense has not ranked in the top 40 of the SP+ in 17 years, which is nearly impossible to do for a power conference team. The Buffaloes lone winning season since 2005, came in 2016, on the backs of a top 25 defense. Last year, they were outside the top 100 in SP+. If the defensive youth movement from 2019 pays off, that could improve dramatically. Colorado returns 9 defensive starters, over 60% of their production, and yet still are projected to be just #97 in the defensive SP+. Linebacker Nate Landman (who is perfectly named for a state rich in mineral production) is a stud, but there are issues all around him. The secondary allowed over 8.5 ypa, roughly 1.5 ypa more than the prior season, and 15th most nationally. The defensive line was decent at getting after the quarterback, particularly Mustafa Johnson, but was weak up the middle, and did nearly nothing against the run. Antonio Alfano has a lot of obstacles to clear, and can’t seem to get out of his own way, but could be a game changer. The sophomore, who was the highest rated member of Alabama’s 2019 recruiting class, he apparently just stopped showing up, transferred to Colorado, had his waiver denied, and then got suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules. The chances that (1) he appeal is granted; (2) his suspension is lifted; and (3) he stays out of his own way long enough to not make another mistake, seems slim. But Colorado desperately needs him. I think it’s fairly telling that none of the assistants that Mel Tucker took with him to Michigan State were on that side of the ball. Massive improvement is needed because the offense could be really ugly, particularly the passing game. Fortunately the one thing Colorado does have is a deep stable of running backs. While none of them really stand out, they do have a strong rotation. Alex Fontenot is the workhorse, who averaged 4.72 ypc, tallying 874 yards. Jaren Mangham is a guy behind him, who I really like to break out. I was surprised he wasn’t more productive last year, running for 441 yards, but on just 4.12 ypc. They also add true freshman Ashaad Clayon from New Orleans, the #17 RB in the nation, #171 overall, and easily the Buffaloes highest rated recruit. He’s got a 6’0”, 200 pound frame that looks ready to contribute from day one. It’s tough to say just how new offensive coordinator Darrin Chiaverini (promoted from receivers coach) will call plays, something he hasn’t done outside of the JUCO level. But considering the options he has at tailback, compared to a passing game starting from scratch, may force his hand. Steven Montez took every meaningful snap for the Buffaloes, going back to 2016, leaving Bolder second in school history in completions, attempts, and yards. For all of the other inconsistencies in the program, have basically had just two quarterbacks over the past seven years. With presumed incumbent Blake Stenstrom entering the transfer portal, and third stringer Sam Noyer graduating, the spot looks even dicier. There is junior Tyler Lytle, who has attempted 5 career passes, and true freshman Brendon Lewis, who was Colorado’s highest rated early enrolee. He is an elite athlete, but as far as a passer goes, doesn’t look like a Power Five guy starter yet. Losing spring ball hurts him, but maybe adding a running threat under center helps, considering who they have to throw to. Both starting receivers graduated, including Laviska Shenault, who had 673 yards, despite missing two games.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Alex Fontenot, Senior
WR	K.D. Nixon, Senior
TE	Brady Russell, Senior
	.
DE	Mustafa Johnson, Senior
LB	Nate Landman, Senior
S	Derrion Rakestraw, Senior

#73 NC State Wolfpack

#12 in ACC

I certainly didn’t expect Mack Brown to pass Dave Doeren in the in-state ACC pecking order, and certainly not in his first season, but here we are following a disastrous 2019, that saw the Wolfpack close the season with six consecutive losses, their longest losing streak since 2013, and going 1-8 on the season against Power Five teams. The problems started with the offense, and specifically the passing game, or lack thereof. NC State rotated through three different starting quarterbacks, each playing in at least half of the team’s games, none of which played effectively. Matt McKay, who started the first five games of the season, and was actually the most effective of the three, although he never got the job back fully, transferred to FCS Montana State. That leaves sophomore Devin Leary, who got the most reps, and is the presumed starter, and Florida State transfer Bailey Hockman, who was miserable in the 6 games he played in last year. I would expect either Ty Evans, who redshirted last year, and/or incoming freshman Ben Finley, younger brother of former starter Ryan Finley, to pass Hockman, if not both. The three starters last year combined to complete just 52% of their passes for 5.9 ypa, and the lowest passing efficiency in the ACC. Yes, lower than a Georgia Tech team trying to run a pro style offense with triple option personnel. Granted they weren’t aided by a truly awful group of receivers, such that I wouldn’t only not be surprised to see true freshman Porter Rooks come right in and immediately be the best of the group, I would expect it. Not to leave the running backs out, Ricky Person Jr., who looked great in 2018 as a freshman, seemed primed for a breakout sophomore campaign, and instead averaged 3.8 ypc, and wound up finishing the season third on the depth chart. He had a lingering ankle injury, so the optimist could say that if he’s fully healthy, and regains his 2018 form, and is your third best running back, that’s a really strong group. But overall, offensively, things were so bad, that after promoting Desmond Kitchings and George McDonald to replace Eliah Drinkwitz as offensive coordinator for 2019, Doeren already replaced them after one year with Tim Beck, whose star had fallen since his time in Columbus. Beck had been demoted from offensive coordinator to quarterbacks coach in Austin at the end of last season. The defense has plenty of talent, it just has to stay healthy. They have three likely future NFL draftees on the line, and yet averaged a fairly middling 2.9 sacks per game. The hope is that the new hire of Charley Wiles, after spending the past 24 seasons as Virginia Tech’s defensive line coach, is supposed to change that. The “additions” in the secondary comes not in the form of new blood, but renewed blood, after having three starters suffer season ending injuries last year. None of the three were expected back for spring ball, so while the chance to develop more depth behind them is lost, they didn’t miss an opportunity to work back into game shape. The injury depleted group last year collapsed, allowing opponents to complete over 64% of their passes, second worst in the ACC, and tallying just 4 interceptions, tied for the least in the country. The upside is that both the starting kicker and punter return after All-ACC sophomore campaigns.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Devin Leary, Sophomore
TE	Cary Angeline, Senior
K	Christopher Dunn, Junior
	.
LB	Louis Acceus, Senior
CB	Chris Ingram, Senior
P	Treton Gill, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 02:27:46 PM

IMO, Tulsa coach Phillip Montgomery is a piece of crap. He rode into town on Art Briles' coattails, telling everyone that Briles was like a second father to him. Then, after the stench in Waco got too powerful to ignore, and Briles ended up being canned, Montgomery went mum on the subject. He will not answer questions, and the Tulsa media rarely dares to ask anything tough.

Montgomery inherited some young talent that hadn't bloomed in time to save Bill Blankenship's job, but after going 16-10 his first two years has faded to 9-27 over the next three. He's been there 5 years, but he had a worse record after 4 years than Blankenship did in his 4 years, and last year's 4-8 campaign just made his record even worse. How he still has a job is a mystery to me. Maybe he's got some pictures of the TU president on vacation in Tijuana.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 04, 2020, 03:44:51 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 02:27:46 PM

IMO, Tulsa coach Phillip Montgomery is a piece of crap. He rode into town on Art Briles' coattails, telling everyone that Briles was like a second father to him. Then, after the stench in Waco got too powerful to ignore, and Briles ended up being canned, Montgomery went mum on the subject. He will not answer questions, and the Tulsa media rarely dares to ask anything tough.

Montgomery inherited some young talent that hadn't bloomed in time to save Bill Blankenship's job, but after going 16-10 his first two years has faded to 9-27 over the next three. He's been there 5 years, but he had a worse record after 4 years than Blankenship did in his 4 years, and last year's 4-8 campaign just made his record even worse. How he still has a job is a mystery to me. Maybe he's got some pictures of the TU president on vacation in Tijuana.

MSU having them as the opener last year felt dangerous, and I couldn't believe how bad they were. Opposite of the year prior where I thought Utah State was trash, and in retrospect they were one of the best mid majors in 2018

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 03:59:43 PM

TU alum and all-round good guy Bill Blankenship was fired after 4 years with a 24-27 record. Art Briles disciple (and cheater) Phillip Montgomery is sitting at 23-37 after 5 years, and he still has a job.

Mysteries abound.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 04:01:26 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 04, 2020, 02:27:46 PM

IMO, Tulsa coach Phillip Montgomery is a piece of crap. He rode into town on Art Briles' coattails, telling everyone that Briles was like a second father to him. Then, after the stench in Waco got too powerful to ignore, and Briles ended up being canned, Montgomery went mum on the subject. He will not answer questions, and the Tulsa media rarely dares to ask anything tough.

Montgomery inherited some young talent that hadn't bloomed in time to save Bill Blankenship's job,

Well he may not have known and Briles was prolly very pretentious.Unless he was around Briles long enough to know better.Ya know it's hard to wrap your head around some of the lecherous behavior of these sanctimonious jerks.Seems guys named Montgomery are a-holes,I know the British General if you want call him that was

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 04, 2020, 04:06:34 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 04, 2020, 04:01:26 PM

Well he may not have known and Briles was prolly very pretentious.Unless he was around Briles long enough to know better.Ya know it's hard to wrap your head around some of the lecherous behavior of these sanctimonious jerks.Seems guys named Montgomery are a-holes,I know the British General if you want call him that was

Read the write-up!

He was with Briles from being his HS QB coach back in 1997 up through being his OC at Baylor in 2014.

And it's not like Tulsa has off the field issues. He was the OC for one of the best offenses in the country, and it's not translating. I guess it was just Briles' offense all along

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 05, 2020, 01:42:40 PM

#72 Illinois Fighting Illini

#12 in Big Ten

While the bar was pretty low, Illinois flew past it in Lovie Smith’s fourth season. Is that setting the Illini up for a big 2020? Maybe. After initially toying with giving the pros a shot, or hanging it up due to injury, Brandon Peters decided to return for his fifth year, for better or worse. While the team seemed to play better with him in, he struggled with his accuracy, completing just 55.3% of his passes, worst among any full time starter in the Big Ten. It really felt like the Smiths, Lovie and Rod, wanted to give redshirt freshman Matt Robinson or true freshman Isaiah Williams every opportunity to pass him. On one hand I get it, if you aren’t competing this year, go with the 18 year old over the 22 year old; and Peters was always kind of a weird fit for Smith’s offense. But it was just so obvious that any run game was neutralized by defenses’ lack of respect for Robinson or Williams’ passing ability. And they needed that passing ability, because the Illini running attack, which absolutely killed teams in 2018, and returned all three players from that monster three headed backfield, faltered in a big way. Illinois ranked 6th nationally, averaging 6.1 ypc in 2018, and plummeted to 3.8 ypc last year, #91 nationally, and now lost their top two backs, returning just Ra’Von Bonner, and his 3.5 ypc. You would expect that with an offensive line returning 4 starters, including three All-Big Ten players, that the holes should be there. But it feels (as is often the case), that the voting was based more on reputation than performance. The line got good push on short yardage situations, ranking 5th in power success rate, but in general was awful. They were #104 in standard down line yards, and #117 in standard down sack rate. The fact that in spite of how good they were in short yardage situations, they ranked 12th in the Big Ten in third down conversions, tells you how rarely they did the work needed on first and second downs to even be in those positions. And the defense, particularly the front seven looks to still be rough, graduating four seniors, including probably the best player nobody knew about, linebacker Dele Harding, who led the Big Ten (second nationally), with 153 tackles (11.8 per game). Then, in addition, Oluwole Betiku Jr., who finished third in the conference in sacks, left early for the NFL. So a front that gave up nearly 200 yards per game on the ground a year ago, and had the third lowest sack rate, loses three players, including a sure fire NFL Draft pick, and behind him, the quarterback of the defense, who also happened to be the most productive defender in the conference. Any success will be based on the secondary, which itself was pretty bad, aside from creating interceptions, getting better. They allowed a Big Ten worst yards per catch, and if the front seven is as bad as I expect it to be, teams may just not even bother passing against them. The offense has the potential to be very good, if that line performs like the Big Ten media thought it did last year, but it might just wind up looking like a slightly better version of 2018, which, looking at that schedule, may actually get them to 6-6.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Josh Imatorbhebhe, Senior
T	AleX Palczewski, Senior
C	Doug Kramer, Senior
	.
LB	Jake Hansen, Senior
CB	Nate Hobbs, Senior
S	Sydney Brown, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 05, 2020, 01:52:42 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 02, 2020, 11:33:13 AM

I'm a tad surprised that USCe would be this low actually, maybe because they play us pretty tough each year usually. That program "should" be able to average something like 7-5 or 8-4 with all the talent around even if they can't compete with Clemson for now. Coaching might be important.

South Carolina has a roster anywhere in the range of Top 15-25 talent wise. Falling FIFTY spots outside that window goes to show how neglected their offense is. This was something we all knew about Muschamp HCed teams going into his hiring in Columbia. This is where I wonder if an AD can give themselves the power to override and dictate Coordinator hires. We see Orgeron had the sense to trust the LSU offense to more capable minds, a sense Muschamp clearly lacks.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 05, 2020, 01:58:23 PM

I think Illinois has a great shot to start 4-0, and it's not completely unreasonable to see them sitting at 7-0 coming into Camp Randall. The non-conference is cake, and is followed by a trip to Rutgers. Then they have a road game at Nebraska, followed by home games against Purdue and Minnesota.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 05, 2020, 02:41:59 PM

I thought that about Missouri last year for the same reasons.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 05, 2020, 08:21:05 PM

I had that with South Carolina two years ago. Thought they'd upset Georgia at home, and get to 9-0. Swing and a miss

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 06, 2020, 07:19:21 AM

South Carolina is a weird team I think, and Muschamp is not the coach they need, I think that is apparent today. I doubt he makes it to 2021. I was befuddled as to why they hired him, but they did upset UGA last season (which may have spared UGA from a somewhat embarrassing playoff result).

I wonder if it is better to be 12-2 and win your bowl game or 12-2 and get blown out in a playoff first round event.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on April 06, 2020, 01:04:57 PM

remember when Muschamp was "head coach in waiting" at UT-Austin? Hah!

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 06, 2020, 01:59:24 PM

#71 Northwestern Wildcats

#11 in Big Ten

Northwestern kept pushing just how far they could go with as inept an offense as they had year in and year out, and it finally bit them. In fairness, they reached the Big Ten title game the year prior with the #94 SP+ offense, relying solely on the #30 defense. Their defense actually improved in 2019, up to #27, but their offense fell off a cliff to #123, which resulted in a flip from 8-1 in conference play, to 1-8. It was the worst season in Evanston since they went winless in Big Ten play in Gary Barnett’s final season, in 1998. That was finally the impetus for Pat Fitzgerald to move on from Mick McCall, who had been his offensive coordinator since 2008, and bring in Mike Bajakian from Boston College. It was time for a fresh start, but this hire is not exactly inspiring. Bajakian was Butch Jones’ offensive coordinator across three different schools (Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Tennessee) from 2007-2014. He then spent four years in the NFL as quarterbacks coach with the Buccaneers “grooming” top pick Jameis Winston. Yikes. But Boston College’s offense, particularly the passing game, saw significant improvement in his one year there. That’s what impact Fitzgerald has to hope he has on his quarterbacks, who were absolutely awful last year, averaging an FBS worst 4.5 ypa. The Wildcats were getting T.J. Green back, following a season ending injury in 2018, and more importantly, adding Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson, a former 5 star recruit. Green got hurt again, Johnson was horrible, and third stringer, Aidan Smith, who hadn’t attempted a pass through his first three seasons, ended the year as the starter, and best option. All three are back in 2020, but the Johnson disaster did not scare Fitzgerald away from hitting the transfer portal again. This time adding Peyton Ramsey as a grad transfer from Indiana. Ramsey was second in the Big Ten in completion percentage last year, fourth in QBR. If the quarterback play is merely decent this year, instead of worst in the FBS, the offense could actually be ok. True freshman Drake Anderson, didn’t exactly call back the dynamic offenses his father played for in Evanston at the turn of the millennium, but considering the loaded boxes he was facing, he stayed healthy, and was moderately effective. They may have stumbled into something late with Evan Hull, who only played in four games, but averaged over 6 ypc; and they have to hope Isaiah Bowser regains his form. He was arguably the second best tailback over the second half of 2018, but never got on track in 2019. While the offensive line was the main problem in 2018, it was actually decent last year, and now returns four starters, including All-Big Ten tackle Rashawn Slater. They could be one of the five best units in the conference. If the offense is just like #80 or so in SP+, the team could be a major bounce back candidate, because the defense appears to be absolutely loaded, particularly in the back seven. They return 8 starters from a top 30 defense a year ago, led by linebacker Paddy Fisher, who could be preseason Big Ten defensive player of the year. The Wildcats’ have the #17 projected SP+ defense for this year.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Drake Anderson, Sophomore
WR	Riley Lees, Senior
WR	Rashawn Slater, Senior
	.
LB	Paddy Fisher, Senior
LB	Blake Gallagher, Senior
S	Travis Whillock, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on April 06, 2020, 02:38:38 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 06, 2020, 07:19:21 AM

South Carolina is a weird team I think, and Muschamp is not the coach they need, I think that is apparent today. I doubt he makes it to 2021. I was befuddled as to why they hired him, but they did upset UGA last season (which may have spared UGA from a somewhat embarrassing playoff result).

I wonder if it is better to be 12-2 and win your bowl game or 12-2 and get blown out in a playoff first round event.

I've wondered that too.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 06, 2020, 03:35:18 PM

The state of Illinois was holding on pretty strong up until the last two postings. Now they are entirely eliminated.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 07, 2020, 02:59:01 PM

#70 BYU Cougars

Independent

Zach Wilson took control of the starting quarterback job as a freshman, and never (willingly) gave up the job. The problem was that he missed three games with an injury, and Baylor Ramsey and Jaren Hall came in and were arguably better. They each had a higher completion percentage, and passing efficiency, while not suffering the interception issues that Wilson did. It would have been an interesting spring battle, but now you do wonder if Kalani Sitake, who is firmly on the hot seat after a 27-25 start to his career after four seasons, is willing to now let a quarterback competition extend into fall practice. He already has a lower winning percentage through four years than Gary Crowton did in between LaVell Edwards and Bronco Mendenhall, and Crowton didn’t get a fifth season. Assuming it is still Wilson, he’ll be aided by what could be a really good running game. Things started to really round into form late in the season, averaging 5.9 ypc over the final quarter of the season, sixth best in the FBS. Nine different Cougars got at least 23 carries last year, so it truly was a running back by committee approach, but for some reason, the most effective, freshman Sione Finau only got 59 carries, despite averaging 6.1 ypc. He also missed four games with injuries, but a first full season in a college weight program could see him be even better. They add grad transfer Devonta’e Henry-Cole from rival Utah, who had an up and down career, that saw him averaged 5.25 ypc over two seasons with the Utes, but only got 89 carries, and those two seasons straddled an entire lost 2018 season due to a wrist injury. He’s probably the most talented back on the roster though, and maybe now gets a consistent opportunity. Considering how divided out the carries were last year, mixed with the mess at receiver, both should get 100+ carries this year. And that mess at receiver is a big one, with BYU’s top three wideouts all graduating. They did catch a break in tight end Matt Bushman, who would have been drafted, electing to return for his senior year. He actually led the team last year in both receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Last year was a reboot year on defense, that was expected. So falling from #18 to #63 in ypp allowed is not necessarily the issue. It as that they failed to establish the guys going forward to actually make it a rebuilding year. So the defense enters 2019 really no better off than they were last year. Aside from linebacker Isaiah Kaufusi, you could tell me just about any projected starter was not actually still starting by the end of the year, and I wouldn’t find it necessarily surprising. They do have a deep rotation at linebacker, one that can withstand injury, so maybe through mixing and matching around Kaufusi they find a really good group, with eight of nine players from last year’s three deep return. BYU always made their mark on that side of the ball by being nasty in the trenches, and the 2019 Cougars simply were not that, with just 4.31% sack rate, bottom 20 in the FBS. And it was just 2.0% on standard downs, fifth worst. They weren’t good against the run either, sacrificing 2.73 line yards per play, in the bottom 25. That’s simply not the BYU mentality I’m familiar with.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Zach Wilson, Junior
TE	Matt BUshman, Senior
C	James Empey, Junior
	.
LB	Isaiah Kaufusi, Senior
LB	Kavika Fonua, Senior
LB	Payton Wilgar, Sophomore

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 07, 2020, 03:03:00 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 06, 2020, 02:38:38 PM

I've wondered that too.

Depends on the program. Helmet schools, probably the bowl win, give yourself some momentum into next year, and inflated ranking to help you, and you'll probably have another great season shortly.

For other schools, where everything has to line up perfectly to even be in position, probably the CFP blowout loss. With MSU's the caveat is that we had just won the Rose and Cotton Bowls the previous two years. And no matter what I'd take a CFP blowout over a Cotton Bowl win. But if it had been 25 years since MSU had been in the Rose Bowl, I don't think I'd trade that for a CFP loss.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 07, 2020, 04:02:38 PM

I'm all holed up in southern Utah, and the school here, Dixie State, is moving up to D1 this year. They will be an FCS independent for FB, and in the WAC for everything else. There is another FCS team 50 miles up the road, SUU, who is in the Big Sky. The nearest FBS team is UNLV at 120 miles away. The Utes are the closest P5, I believe, at over 300 miles away. BYU is a little bit closer than the Utes.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 07, 2020, 09:47:35 PM

Anyway, Utah is now down to their last team. And Cincydawg predicts that they will be posted next.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 08, 2020, 10:44:37 AM

#69 Georgia Southern Eagles

#3 in Sun Belt

There is no excuse for Georgia Southern to suffer through a repeat of a 2019 season that saw them inexplicably unable to run the ball. They are a triple option team returned a full backfield from a team that ranked 14th in the nation in yards per carry in 2018, and yet averaged under 5 yards per carry in 2019, 5th in the Sun Belt. That’s not, by itself, the worst, but when you want to run the ball like the Eagles do, which 78.02% of the time, more than any non-service academy FBS school, that’s unsustainable. They’ve got all of the key pieces back, in senior quarterback Shai Werts, and a pair of All-Sun Belt running backs. Werts should, assuming he stays healthy, pass 3,000 rushing yards in his career this season. And he’s a better passer than he’s allowed to be, completing over 55% of his passes for his career, with 26 touchdowns, to just six interceptions. The issue in 2019 was not the guys carrying the ball, it was with the guys blocking for them. The Eagles ranked in the low 20s or high 30s in every one of Football Outsiders’ run blocking metrics in 2018, and dropped off into the 90s across the board last year. With four upperclassman starters returning in 2020, they should allow that talented backfield to flourish, and get back into the top 15 nationally in rushing. That said, Werts does need to play better. While the offense did regress overall, to #101 in SP+, and a large portion of that falls on the line, Werts was not the player he was as a sophomore. His completion percentage dropped by 7%, his yards per attempt by 2.2 yards, his passer rating by 32 points, and even rushing, his yards per attempt by 0.7 yards, with 11 fewer overall touchdowns. All in all it was a 36 point drop in QBR, resulting in falling from the #2 quarterback in the Sun Belt as a sophomore in 2018, to #8 last year, as a junior. The defense was a mixed bag, with an outstanding run defense, but an inability to stop the pass, specifically the big pass play. The Eagles allowed just 3.8 ypc, narrowly behind Appalachian State for best mark in the conference. But the pass defense, despite holding opponents to just under 60% completions, surrendered over 13 yards per completion, 2nd worst in the Sun Belt. There’s no reason to expect that to change this year, as the front seven still looks stacked, and the secondary, particularly at cornerback, still appears to be a mess. If there’s one area that front could help at, it’s generating more pressure, as they only ranked #71 in sack rate. Their best returning players are also their best pass rushers, so there is hope that they can alleviate some of the burden on their cornerbacks. The Eagles have beaten their rival, Appalachian State, in each of the past two years (the Mountaineers going 16-0 in Sun Belt play otherwise), but they’ve been unable to avoid other hiccups, preventing them from playing for the conference title. They get Appalachian State at home this year (seeking their second ever three game winning streak in the rivalry that dates back to 1932, and has been played every year, plus playoff meetings, since 1993), Troy is still down, and Arkansas State rotates off their schedule. This might be as good a shot as they are going to have.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Shai Werts, Senior
RB	Wesley Kennedy III, Senior
RB	J.D. King, Senior
	.
DE	Raymond Johnson III, Senior
LB	Rashad Byrd, Senior
S	Kenderick Duncan Jr., Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Kris60 on April 08, 2020, 11:22:08 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on April 07, 2020, 04:02:38 PM

I'm all holed up in southern Utah, and the school here, Dixie State, is moving up to D1 this year. They will be an FCS independent for FB, and in the WAC for everything else. There is another FCS team 50 miles up the road, SUU, who is in the Big Sky. The nearest FBS team is UNLV at 120 miles away. The Utes are the closest P5, I believe, at over 300 miles away. BYU is a little bit closer than the Utes.

Dixie St sounds like a fictional college in Mississippi. Pretty sure Bobby Boudreaux had 6 sacks against them.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 01:07:09 PM

Quote from: Kris60 on April 08, 2020, 11:22:08 AM

Dixie St sounds like a fictional college in Mississippi. Pretty sure Bobby Boudreaux had 6 sacks against them.

That was in the Mud Bowl, so it didn't count for conference rankings.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 08, 2020, 02:21:41 PM

They are the ones that changed their mascot thrice in under a decade; first the Rebels, then the Red Storm and now the Trailblazers. Their top players was Corey Dillon, who suited up for the Rebels back in their JuCo days.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 08, 2020, 04:47:50 PM

Quote from: ELA on April 07, 2020, 02:59:01 PM

#70 BYU Cougars
Independent

KEY PLAYERS
QB Zach Wilson, Junior
TE Matt BUshman, Senior
C James Empey, Junior
.
LB Isaiah Kaufusi, Senior
LB Kavika Fonua, Senior
LB Payton Wilgar, Sophomore

Sitake cooled his hot seat last year, notching brand wins Vs Tennessee, USC, and Boise State, and winning 5 straight wins to attain 7-4 record. Then blew that with head scratching losses to San Diego St and Hawaii to finish to 7-6.

Sitake’s bigger dilemma is the downturn in recruiting. It helps that an older, bulkier crowd returns from LDS Missions, but gone are the days when BYU’s recruiting classes would finish in the thick of what the PAC 12 signs.

BYU also has the least amount of Pacific Islanders players they’ve had in years. Ironic given Sitake is from Tonga.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 05:20:08 PM

He sounds like a kind of musroom.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 08, 2020, 05:51:13 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 08, 2020, 05:20:08 PM

He sounds like a kind of musroom.

(https://thumbs.gfycat.com/DapperRaggedBluebottlejellyfish-size_restricted.gif)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 09, 2020, 02:28:07 PM

#68 Wyoming Cowboys

#4 in Mountain West

Prior to a few years ago, with Josh Allen, the Cowboys’ history of elite football players was pretty small. Even their best teams, the Joe Tiller years, the Bob Devaney teams of the late 50s, didn’t really produce names. Jay Novacek was about it, unless you like Jim Kiick, who played for the pre-merger Dolphins. You had a top 10 pick a couple years ago in Josh Allen, and now Xazavian Valladay, who certainly has the best name in the Group of Five, might be the most exciting player to watch in the group too. Valladay burst onto the Mountain West scene, winning the conference rushing title with 1,265 yards, despite not being “the man” until the second half of the season. He only topped 15 carries once in the Cowboys’ first six games; and then went over 15 in all but one of their final 7, running for over 115 yards in all of those, including a pair of two hundred yard games. He played high school ball in Oak Lawn, Illinois, just 30 miles from Northwestern’s campus. Yet the Wildcats didn’t offer him, neither did any MAC schools. His only offers came from Wyoming and FCS Western Illinois. Quite a find from halfway across the country. This is probably it for him, so if you get the chance, he’s worth the late night watch on CBS Sports Network, or whatever. He’ll have plenty of help up front, from a veteran offensive line that returns all five starters from a year ago, including a pair of all-conference performers. They’ll need that running game to deliver, because the passing game is a disaster. Wyoming cycled through three starting quarterbacks, and all of them were awful. Tyler Vander Waal, the only one of the group who actually completed over 50% of his passes (at an outstanding 51.6%), transferred to Idaho State, so presumably its true sophomore Sean Chambers’ job to lose, since Wyoming was unable to get anyone in yet via the portal. He didn’t have the interception issues that Vander Waal did, and ran for 6.3 ypc on 90 attempts, but only completed 43% of his passes, worst in the nation among quarterbacks with at least 120 passing attempts. I say it’s his job to lose very loosely, because he probably doesn’t have to do much to lose it. True freshman Levi Williams only played in three games, so he preserved his redshirt, but had the highest passer rating of the three (in spite of still completing under 50% of his passes), and Wyoming brought in two quarterbacks in their 2020 class. Much like Georgia Southern yesterday, the Wyoming defense had some pretty harsh splits in favor of the run defense, except even more dramatic. The Cowboys allowed just 2.9 ypc on the ground, 5th best nationally. That accounted for just 29.76% of the yards allowed. Only three schools; Georgia, Penn State and San Diego State, had a larger disparity between yards allowed via the run vs. the pass. The scary thing about that Wyoming run defense, is that they suffered a ton of injuries along the line, a line that ranked top 10 in every run defense metric. Now they return the healthy presumed starters, to go with that group that was a top 10 unit last year, to form what should be an elite defensive line, easily the best of the Group of Five. The problem is behind that line is a mess, particularly linebacker. They could be looking at a true freshman to step in and start at one outside linebacker spot, next to Chad Muma at middle linebacker, who has played in a reserve role, at most, in his first two seasons.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Xazavian Valladay, Junior
C	Keegan Cryder, Junior
G	Logan Harris, Senior
	.
DE	Solomon Byrd, Sophomore
DE	Garrett Crall, Senior
LB	Chad Muma, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 09, 2020, 02:57:02 PM

Down goes another state. Although they outlasted a few that you wouldn't necessarily expect.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 10, 2020, 09:06:35 AM

#67 Boston College Eagles

#11 in ACC

I don’t think there’s any way to characterize the last two seasons in Chestnut Hill as anything other than a failure. The Eagles won 5 of their final 6 regular season games in 2017, led by a pair of freshmen in the backfield in quarterback Anthony Brown, and running back A.J. Dillon, who was the best running back in the nation over the second half of the season. That appeared to set them up for a big couple year run, even though they have the misfortune of being in the same division as Clemson. I had them in my preseason top 20 in 2018. They opened with three wins over cupcakes, then went 4-5 the rest of the way, finishing 4 games behind Clemson, and behind Syracuse in the division standings. They were even worse last year, going 6-6, making their two year record against ranked opponents 0-6. A.J. Dillon made the expected decision to turn pro, but Anthony Brown also decided to transfer to Oregon, following an injury shortened junior season. That leaves an Eagles offense that should be really, really good in the trenches, but absolutely devoid of talent at the skill positions. They return four All-ACC linemen from a group that was top 30 in every Football Outsiders line metric, and top ten in several, including #2 nationally in power success rate. Mix in tight end Hunter Long, son of Howie Long, younger brother of Chris Long, who was also All-ACC, and is an elite blocker, and the opportunity is there to do some special things. The problem is that there is nobody to replace them. Dennis Grosel hardly impressed in filling in for Brown, completing just 48.4% of his passes in seven starts. Sam Johnson III redshirted as a true freshman last year; incoming true freshman Matthew Rueve, who had no other Power Five offers, doesn’t look like a guy who can step in and contribute right away; and Notre Dame transfer Phil Jurkovic hasn’t gotten a waiver yet to play in 2020. He was a top 5 quarterback in the nation coming out of high school, but didn’t really see any meaningful action in two seasons in South Bend. Even if they get the quarterback position figured out, who will they even have to throw to, aside from the aforementioned tight end Hunter Long? Top receiver Kobay White transferred out, and Zay Flowers is the only other receiver with more than 3 receptions a year ago who didn’t graduate. This from a passing game that only averaged 176 yards per game last year before resetting at quarterback and receiver. The one spot Boston College might still be ok is running back, even with the departure of Dillon to the NFL. Steve Addazio ran Dillon into the ground, racking up 845 carries over his three seasons. So it might not be surprising that it was actually David Bailey who averaged the better 5.7 ypc, on a not insignificant 148 carries. So he should be the beneficiary in 2020 of all of those additional carries. The issue is who will he split with, for an offense that ran the ball 67% of the time last year; more often than any non triple-option team, aside from Buffalo? For how many carries Dillon and Bailey got last year (466), no other running back had more than 28. The other issue is that while Boston College’s offense has had its ups and downs recently (with some major downs), the defense could always be relied upon. That is, until last year, when they surrendered an ACC worst 6.3 ypp and 478.7 ypg. They were very young a year ago, but have one of the 15 most experienced units this year. How much that aids what was the ACC’s worst defense a year ago, remains to be seen.

	KEY PLAYERS
TE	Hunter Long, Junior
T	Ben Petrula, Senior
G	Zion Johnson, Senior
	.
LB	Max Richardson, Senior
LB	John Lamot, Senior
S	Mike Palmer, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Kris60 on April 10, 2020, 09:42:29 AM

BC has become a school that you sort of forget about even being a P5 program. They have been mediocre at best and often times outright bad in the two major sports for over a decade now. Haven’t finished in the top 25 in football since 2007 and haven’t had a NCAA Tourney appearance since 2009. I rarely come across any of their games on TV despite being in an era where everyone is on TV.

They are in dire need of a brand shakeup.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 10, 2020, 09:53:43 AM

Quote from: Kris60 on April 10, 2020, 09:42:29 AM

BC has become a school that you sort of forget about even being a P5 program. They have been mediocre at best and often times outright bad in the two major sports for over a decade now.

I feel like they've rarely been bad, but as you said, they've never been good. Other schools have had random bad seasons, but at least had one year, somewhere, where they've also been good.

I think the ACC suffers from this more than any conference, as far as number of schools that haven't even had a singular really good season in either sports in too long. BC, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Pitt, Virginia Tech, NC State, Miami. When was the last time any of those schools reached a Sweet 16 or finished a football season ranked in the Top 15?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 10, 2020, 10:14:07 AM

That wipes out not just Massachusetts, but the entire region of New England.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2020, 10:39:07 AM

GaTech was pretty good a decade or so back, VaTech as well, Miami further back I think.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 10, 2020, 10:52:32 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 10, 2020, 10:39:07 AM

GaTech was pretty good a decade or so back, VaTech as well, Miami further back I think.

Yeah, that's a minute to go without a Sweet 16 or a Top 15 football finish.

Although, looking it up, Georgia Tech also had a good football year in 2014, that I totally forgot. Nearly beat FSU to win the ACC (lost 37-35), and won the Orange Bowl to finish #8. I have zero recollection of that team. Sweet 16 in basketball, you have to go back to 2004.

Virginia Tech's last AP top 15 finish was 2009, but, lol, they were in the Sweet 16 in basketball just last year, apparently. Their first since 1967.

Miami did have the one Mark Richt year, where they were a fraud, but still finished #11; prior to that, it's 2004, but also they were in the Sweet 16 in 2013 and 2016.

So apparently the ACC just needs better marketing, so that I can actually remember their good teams when they have them. Back to the original team, you do have to go back to the 2007 Matt Ryan team (finished #10), and the 2006 basketball team. Man, how much would BC fans (both of them) love to get back to the Tom O'Brien/Al Skinner years. Finished ranked in football in 5 of 7 years from 2001-2007, and never since; and made the NCAA tournament 7 of 9 years from 2001-2009 (with a pair of Big East titles, plus a BET title), and zero appearances since.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2020, 11:17:15 AM

BC and Miami lost their identities when they moved to the ACC.

Syracuse, VT and Pitt too, to a lesser extent I guess.

It just dawned on me that those 5 schools, plus WVU, Louisville, Rutgers and Cincinnati, could make up a nice conference.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 10, 2020, 11:18:32 AM

If you say "the BC Eagles" too quickly, it sounds like "the Bee Seagulls."

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on April 10, 2020, 12:37:48 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2020, 11:17:15 AM

BC and Miami lost their identities when they moved to the ACC.

Syracuse, VT and Pitt too, to a lesser extent I guess.

I remember when that move happened - it was supposed cast the rest of CFB asunder.Clemson wasn't even a blip on thew screen

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Kris60 on April 10, 2020, 12:47:52 PM

Quote from: ELA on April 10, 2020, 09:53:43 AM

I feel like they've rarely been bad, but as you said, they've never been good. Other schools have had random bad seasons, but at least had one year, somewhere, where they've also been good.

I think the ACC suffers from this more than any conference, as far as number of schools that haven't even had a singular really good season in either sports in too long. BC, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Pitt, Virginia Tech, NC State, Miami. When was the last time any of those schools reached a Sweet 16 or finished a football season ranked in the Top 15?

The “bad” was more in reference to their basketball program. They have had single digit win seasons in 4 of the last 9 years with a 19-16 campaign being the one winning season in that span. It’s hard for a P5 program to end a basketball season with less than 10 wins. BC is getting pretty good at it.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 10, 2020, 04:44:15 PM

Quote from: ELA on April 09, 2020, 02:28:07 PM

#68 Wyoming Cowboys
#4 in Mountain West

KEY PLAYERS
RB Xazavian Valladay, Junior
C Keegan Cryder, Junior
G Logan Harris, Senior
.
DE Solomon Byrd, Sophomore
DE Garrett Crall, Senior
LB Chad Muma, Junior

In my watching lifetime Wyoming has fielded better seasons ('96 and maybe '04) but as far as program stability this is the Cowboys best stretch. They've reeled off four straight winning seasons, put a few players in the NFL draft, have a committed coach who also isn't likely to get poached, have won some bowls, and taken down a few P5s like Missouri last year.

This year they get Utah early and they'll have the horses to pull off an upset before entering conference play as a contender.

Got to attend their bowl game in Tucson to close out last season and only Nebraska and BYU, IMO, have as polite or appreciative of a fan base. They were great to chat football with.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 10, 2020, 06:18:23 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 10, 2020, 11:17:15 AM

It just dawned on me that those 5 schools, plus WVU, Louisville, Rutgers and Cincinnati, could make up a nice conference.

What if you added Memphis, Pitt, Houston ... city schools mostly, and not bad at all.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 10, 2020, 06:33:43 PM

He already had Pitt in.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 11, 2020, 12:42:13 PM

#66 Purdue Boilermakers

#10 in Big Ten

Jeff Brohm isn’t even sniffing a hot seat, but let’s say the bloom is slightly off the rose. The job offers that were out there after each of his first two years in West Lafayette, simply weren’t there last year. Not really a surprise, following a 4-8 campaign. And since that big prime time upset of #2 Ohio State in October of 2018, the Boilermakers are just 6-12 overall, and 1-10 against bowl teams (0-7 last year). His best team, the 2017 team, was built off the defense that was left behind, and his offense has never really totally lived up to expectations. Last year was derailed by injuries, and a total lack of running game. You can never really predict injuries, but the run game still looks to be problematic. The pass game? Oh lord could it be fun. Losing tight end Brycen Hopkins hurts more than people realize, but the Boilermakers get the 2018 Big Ten Freshman of the Year back from injury...to pair with the 2019 Freshman of the Year. Forget having the best wide receiver pair in the Big Ten, they probably have the #1 and #2 best individual receivers in the conference. With Elijah Sindelar deciding not to return from his injury, I assumed Purdue would be the perfect destination for a grad transfer quarterback. Jack Plummer and Aidan O’Connell were fine last year, but both struggled with interceptions, and combined would have been 10th in the conference in yards per attempt. This passing game is ready to roll, you would think it would be a perfect spot for a grad transfer. Mix in play calling that passed the ball 61.6% of the time (third nationally behind only Washington State and San Jose State) for 79.8% of the yards (4th nationally), and you would think guys would be beating down the doors to come play for Purdue. A lot of that playcalling was necessitated by an awful running game, but there’s no obvious reason to think it will get better in 2020. Tario Fuller, the presumed starter, missed 9 games due to injury, but was ineffective when in, and the only four running backs on the spring roster are the four they used last year, running behind an offensive line that was one of the five worst run blocking units in the FBS. Incoming freshman Tirek Murphy was a top 20 running back recruit, the #1 player from the state of New York, but do you really want to stick an 18 year old behind that line? The most surprising thing about the early portion of Brohm’s tenure was what a good job he did defensively with what Hazell left behind, turning what had been the #103 SP+ defense in 2016, into #32 in 2017. The problem is that it immediately fell back to #88 in 2018, and #84 last year. So coordinator Nick Holt is out, and Bob Diaco was brought in. Bob Diaco coordinated Louisiana Tech’s defense last year, but last coordinated at this level at Notre Dame, which got him the UConn head coaching job. He’s got 8 returning starters to work with, including George Karlaftis, the best Purdue football defender I can think of in quite some time. While Brohm has certainly upgraded the recruiting overall, aside from Karlaftis, isn’t hasn’t necessarily been on the defensive side of the ball. His top six rated recruits last year were offensive players. Between Karlaftis, and his bookend, Derrick Barnes, Purdue should be a much better pass rushing group than they are, but they need somebody else to step up. The two combined for 15 sacks last year, with 7.5 each. Wisconsin was the only other team in the conference with multiple players with at least that many, yet Bucky ranked second in the conference, with 49 sacks, while Purdue was 12th, with just 23. If Plummer takes a leap, which isn’t a stretch for a rising true sophomore, they could get back to 7 or 8 wins, but they are way too reliant on the passing game being not just good, but elite, because the 2019 issues, remain issues.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Jack Plummer, Sophomore
WR	Rondale Moore, Sophomore
WR	David Bell, Sophomore
	.
DE	George Karlaftis, Sophomore
DE	Derrick Barnes, Senior
S	Cory Trice, Sophomore

#65 Buffalo Bulls

#2 in MAC

While going from 10-3 and a MAC Championship Game appearance to 7-5, at first glance seems like a big step back, considering the transition the Bulls had last year, it may have actually been Lance Leipold’s best coaching job at Buffalo. Quarterback Tyree Jackson decided to go pro, leaving the Bulls with the fourth least returning production in the country last year...and that was before a pair of running backs, in the rotation, transferred out; a pair of starting receivers transferred to Miami and Iowa; and their starting tight end transferred to Maryland. Their offense was absolutely gutted, and while they were only 8th in the MAC in ypp, Leipold and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki was able to massage the #4 scoring offense out of that. They were third in the MAC in third down conversion rates, second on fourth downs, they were the second least penalized team, improved their red zone conversion rate by 23%, and dominated time of possession, finishing second nationally. That was all made possible by Jaret Patterson, with an assist from an offensive line that landed all five starters on the All-Conference team. Patterson was a piece, albeit the best piece, of a running back rotation, as a freshman in 2018. After the aforementioned departures, Patterson took on a huge load, leading the MAC in carries (312), rushing yards (1,799) and rushing touchdowns (19), while still finishing third in yards per carry. Fellow junior Kevin Marks also raised his workload, running for 1,078 yards on 227 carries, albeit on a less robust 4.6 ypc. That was easily the most carries nationally for a #2 option. As far as my limited research could tell, there was no other backup running back, even on one of the triple option teams, who even had 190 carries. So, even though the Bulls ran the ball 68.9% of the time, most of any non triple-option team, they managed to do it almost solely on the backs of two guys. Starting quarterback Kyle Vantrease contributed nothing in the run game, with just 17 non-sack rush attempts. Problem was that he also didn’t contribute a ton in the passing game. The Bulls were 10th in the MAC in yards per attempt and passing efficiency, 11th in completion percentage. He had Antonio Nunn (who accounted for 33% of the team’s receptions), and not much else. Was that a product of a depleted group of receivers due to three of the top four transferring out, or did Vantrease just lock onto Nunn? Probably a little both. Vantrease seemed in over his head, and probably liked his one sure thing, but he also averaged 7.63 ypa when targeting Nunn; and 5.90 when targeting anyone else. They also leaned heavily on what was easily the best defense in MAC. While they only lost three starters, those three seniors, were the three best players in their back seven, and they lost depth. Their pass rush, which generated 10.7% sack rate, fourth best nationally, still should be outstanding, with both starting defensive ends returning, but I’m concerned about the linebacker play. The ceiling for this team is probably the highest in the MAC, if the passing game progresses, but I’m nervous about an offense relying almost entirely on two non-quarterbacks to touch the ball on 61.2% of the offensive snaps for a second straight year.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Jaret Patterson, Junior
WR	Antonio Nunn, Senior
T	Kayode Awoskia, Senior
	.
DE	Taylor Riggins, Senior
DE	Malcolm Koonce, Senior
S	Tyrone Hill, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 11, 2020, 03:21:02 PM

So New York's goose is cooked.

When combined with New England, everything North of the Big Ten states is out.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2020, 03:28:53 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on April 11, 2020, 03:21:02 PM

So New York's goose is cooked.

When combined with New England, everything North of the Big Ten states is out.

I lost track. Is New Jersey out?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 11, 2020, 04:17:40 PM

Oh yeah. Them too.

So the Northeast has all of their eggs in the Pennsylvania basket. But the good news is that Pennsylvania is still sitting pretty.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2020, 04:37:59 PM

Is Maryland considered a Northern state? I know they were a slave state, but they remained in the union.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 11, 2020, 04:41:59 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2020, 04:37:59 PM

Is Maryland considered a Northern state? I know they were a slave state, but they remained in the union.

West Virginia broke away (maybe?) solely to stay in the Union, and they still have both schools in.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2020, 05:18:15 PM

I was just wondering if Maryland is considered a "Big Ten" state. I know Maryland is in the conference, but in general the conference is made up of Midwest schools. I guess central PA is Midwest, kinda??

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MichiFan87 on April 11, 2020, 06:29:13 PM

FWIW, Maryland is a Mid-Atlantic state, along with Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York. Some count Virginia and West Virginia, as well.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 11, 2020, 07:17:05 PM

I was going North of the Mason Dixon, and East of Ohio. S

no Maryland, Delaware, W Virginia, etc. Those plus Virginia, DC and the Carolinas are the Mid Atlantic, imo.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 11, 2020, 09:10:23 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2020, 05:18:15 PM

I was just wondering if Maryland is considered a "Big Ten" state. I know Maryland is in the conference, but in general the conference is made up of Midwest schools. I guess central PA is Midwest, kinda??

Western PA is solidly Midwest. Pittsburgh is more like Indianapolis than it is like Philly.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on April 12, 2020, 12:04:47 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 11, 2020, 04:37:59 PM

Is Maryland considered a Northern state? I know they were a slave state, but they remained in the union.

Historically, Maryland was considered one of the "Chesapeake" colonies, along with Virginia.
For U.S. Census purposes, it's in the South Atlantic Division of The South.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2020, 09:23:14 AM

Pennsylvania is Pittsburg and Philly divided by Alabama.

And of course Maryland is south of the M-D line. It's all pretty arbitrary.

I noted "they" call the Auburn-UGA game the "oldest rivalry in the Deep South" because the UNC-UVA rivalry is older.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2020, 09:29:46 AM

I'm aware that Maryland is mid-Atlantic. The company I worked for before I started in business was HQ's in Baltimore, and that was also the main mid-Atlantic office. I was the co-head of the Chicago office at that time.

So, is Maryland a Big Ten state? We know for sure it's not Midwest, a distinction it shares with New Jersey.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2020, 09:30:36 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 12, 2020, 09:23:14 AM

Pennsylvania is Pittsburg and Philly divided by Alabama.

When I first went there with Gator back in 2003 he called the middle "Pennsyltucky". I laughed.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 12, 2020, 09:31:07 AM

Sorry to mess up the thread. Feel free to clean house, ELA.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2020, 09:54:02 AM

Big Ten-SEC has always been divided along Civil War lines. So Maryland is fine.

That and the Pac 12 remaining west of the Central Time Zone are the only two geographical distinctions that our modern conference alignments have maintained from the past. Hope it stays that way going forward.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on April 12, 2020, 10:17:34 AM

I wish we could go back to that

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2020, 10:54:14 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2020, 09:54:02 AM

Big Ten-SEC has always been divided along Civil War lines. So Maryland is fine.

Kentucky was a border state obviously and never seceded except by a temporary faked Legislature installed and voted and ran.

Kentucky's role in the CW was analogous to Maryland's.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2020, 12:02:07 PM

Kentucky and Missouri count as "part of the Confederacy" for this particular exercise. O0

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 12, 2020, 01:33:17 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2020, 12:02:07 PM

Kentucky and Missouri count as "part of the Confederacy" for this particular exercise. O0

They lose enough in football, don't tack one more L on them

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 12, 2020, 01:39:29 PM

Now, back to our regularly scheduled program (before Badger has one of his famous snits).

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 12, 2020, 01:48:26 PM

#64 Duke Blue Devils

#10 in ACC

It’s hard to believe, but David Cutcliffe is entering his thirteenth season as the Duke head football coach, making him the dean of the ACC, and one of just 8 Power Five coaches to be at their current schools for over a decade. He’s already the third longest tenured coach in school history, and just three years away from catching Wallace Wade, for whom Duke’s stadium is named after. Granted his .476 winning percentage, and 76 wins, compared to Wade’s .742 and 110, suggest that name won’t be getting chiseled off any time soon. Nobody is pretending Duke’s money base cares about football, but the fact that he’s getting a thirteenth year with a sub-.500 record is actually fairly remarkable, considering Dave Clawson at Wake Forest and Derek Mason at Vanderbilt (both hired in 2014), are the only other Power Five coaches with more than four years below .500. In fairness, the Blue Devils have had a winning record in five of the past seven seasons, after having five in the previous thirty-eight, including none in the prior 18. But, since that 2013 season, where they played in the ACC Championship, getting blown out by eventual national champion Florida State, they’ve only finished with a winning ACC record once. They’ve scheduled wins, going 22-6 in non-conference play, without beating a single ranked out of conference foe in Cutcliffe’s entire tenure (including bowls), with last year’s blowout loss to Alabama being their only scheduled opportunity. That made me sort of curious, and Duke’s last win over a ranked non-conference opponent happened in 1971, when they did it twice, beating #19 South Carolina at home, and #10 Stanford (who went on to win their second consecutive Rose Bowl) in Palo Alto. Anyway, point is, you’ve been around as long as Cutcliffe, you know what you need to do, and that is to schedule your way to bowl eligibility, and have a quarterback. Trying to replace Daniel Jones last year was a disaster, for an acclaimed quarterback coach, such as Cutcliffe. The Blue Devils rolled with fifth year senior Quentin Harris, despite finishing with the second lowest pass efficiency among full time starters, and the second highest interception rate. The fact that Duke didn’t try out any other options, to replace a struggling outgoing senior, in a year where the Blue Devils weren’t going bowling, and put up 17 points or fewer in four consecutive games in late October/early November, tells you all you need to know about the other options. So, he went out and got Chase Brice, who, while not overly experienced, was one of the most sought after transfer quarterbacks on the market. They did waste a top 20 special teams unit, and while returner Damond Philyaw-Johnson returns, after finishing second in the ACC in kick return yardage, with a pair of touchdowns, they have to replace both their kicker and punter, due to a transfer and a graduation respectively. If Philyaw-Johnson can translate that to his performance, that would be a big help, after tight end Noah Gray was their most consistent option last year. The defensive line should be strong, but the back seven, losing their two strongest tacklers, looks to be a major problem. Looks to be more of the same from Duke, fundamentally sound, well, coached, three cupcake non-conference opponents, but at a talent deficit. Qualifying that with the fact that if Bryce takes off, Cutcliffe has proven what he can do with good quarterback play.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Damond Philyaw-Johnson, Junior
TE	Noah Gray, Senior
C	Jack Wohlabaugh, Senior
	.
DE	Victor Dimukeje, Senior
DE	Chris Rumph II, Junior
S	Marquis Waters, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2020, 07:53:34 PM

So NC is down to a G5 program, as well as a pair of P5 programs; including the one that you would normally expect to be bringing up the rear.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 13, 2020, 06:37:05 AM

Is that WF and UNC? I think UNC will merit a ranking around 30, their QB looks quite capable. They may be the penultimately ranked ACC team.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 13, 2020, 09:24:18 AM

Quote from: ELA on April 12, 2020, 01:48:26 PM

#64 Duke Blue Devils
#10 in ACC
It’s hard to believe, but David Cutcliffe is entering his thirteenth season as the Duke head football coach, making him the dean of the ACC, and one of just 8 Power Five coaches to be at their current schools for over a decade. He’s already the third longest tenured coach in school history, and just three years away from catching Wallace Wade, for whom Duke’s stadium is named after. Granted his .476 winning percentage, and 76 wins, compared to Wade’s .742 and 110, suggest that name won’t be getting chiseled off any time soon. Nobody is pretending Duke’s money base cares about football, but the fact that he’s getting a thirteenth year with a sub-.500 record is actually fairly remarkable, considering Dave Clawson at Wake Forest and Derek Mason at Vanderbilt (both hired in 2014), are the only other Power Five coaches with more than four years below .500. In fairness, the Blue Devils have had a winning record in five of the past seven seasons, after having five in the previous thirty-eight, including none in the prior 18.

KEY PLAYERS
WR Damond Philyaw-Johnson, Junior
TE Noah Gray, Senior
C Jack Wohlabaugh, Senior
.
DE Victor Dimukeje, Senior
DE Chris Rumph II, Junior
S Marquis Waters, Senior

Wow - completely lost track of how long Cutcliffe has been at the helm. If you take out his first 4 losing seasons Cutcliffe is 57-47 over the last eight, and I think that’s the kind of record which Duke was hoping their patience would net. Not sure any other realistic hire could do much better. With that said, Duke has to be about my least watched, least followed P5 team these past 20 years. Yes, I watched Bama beat Duke to open last season, but before that? Maybe the Peach Bowl Vs Texas A&M (2013?).

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on April 13, 2020, 09:51:24 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on April 12, 2020, 07:53:34 PM

So NC is down to a G5 program, as well as a pair of P5 programs; including the one that you would normally expect to be bringing up the rear.

Clawson is a hell of a coach

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 13, 2020, 09:56:35 AM

The SEC is the only Conference that remains in double digits, with regards to number of teams not yet posted. And that will continue to be the case after their next one gets "put on the board."

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 13, 2020, 10:46:19 AM

#63 Ole Miss Rebels

#11 in SEC

They had Lane Kiffin at “The Grove”. I really thought the Kiffin at Florida Atlantic fit was pretty damn perfect, but I’m also not going to begrudge a guy taking an SEC job, if only for the pay bump alone, but with him also the chance to salvage a reputation that he simply couldn’t cut it at the Power Five level. The most interesting question is at quarterback, where the Rebels used two different freshmen last year, with vastly different skill sets. John Rhys Plumlee was a hell of a fun watch, and seemed ideal for offensive coordinator Rich Rodriguez’s style of offense in 2019. He led the team in rushing, with 1,023 yards on 6.6 ypc, with his 12 rushing touchdowns, being twice as many as any other player on the roster. But he completed just 52.7% of his passes, with a 108 passer rating, and 6.07 ypa. Matt Corral is a more traditional drop back passer, who provided little in the run game, but completed nearly 60% of his passes, with a passer rating of 131, and 7.65 ypa. Looking to new offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby’s two years as offensive coordinator at Central Florida, suggests that he prefer to rely on his running backs to generate the carries. Even inheriting McKenzie Milton from the previous regime, Lebby dialed his Milton’s carries back from Frost’s last year in 2017, by about 30%. But, that said, when Milton was hurt, and he was forced to use Derriel Mack, who was far less of a passer, he adjusted. My guess is that Lebby would prefer Corral, but if it’s clear that Plumlee is better, he’s not unwilling to sacrifice talent for fit. There’s a chance that whole conversation may be for naught, as 4* dual threat Grant Tisdale, who redshirted as a true freshman last year, and who entered the transfer portal, decided to return to Oxford. I’m guessing he didn’t have a change of heart to be promised the #3 spot, behind a pair of sophomores. The passing game does need to develop someone to compliment Elijah Moore. Aside from Moore, who had 67 receptions and 6 touchdowns, no other receiver or tight end had more than 13 receptions or 1 touchdown. They were able to flip 4* recruit Marc Britt from Florida, seemingly by offering him the chance to contribute immediately at receiver, whereas Florida appeared to prefer him at defensive back. The running back room must love to see Lebby in charge. He spent five years at Baylor prior to Central Florida as running backs coach, and run game coordinator. While the Kendall Briles passing game got more pub, the Bears were in the top 20 in rushing yards per attempt nationally, in three of those seasons, with four 1,000 yard rushers. It wasn’t just quarterbacks, where Ole Miss got freshmen production, as freshmen running backs Jerrion Ealy and Snoop Carter combined for 1,234 yards on 6.7 ypa. For his defense, Kiffin decided to pay it forward, and while Ole Miss gave him his second chance, he decided to give the same to D.J. Durkin, after getting fired at Maryland for player treatment issues. Durkin is more known as a recruiter (2012 Rivals Recruiter of the Year) than an in game coach, and actually only has three years (2013-2015 at Florida, then Michigan) as a coordinator. It appears that is the method Kiffin is going with though, loading up with recruiters, as he also added Chris Partridge from Michigan, who was also a former recruiter of the year. How that bodes for 2020, with very little returning defensive talent, outside of a solid group of linebackers, is likely unfavorably. But this staff, in Oxford, should upgrade the talent quickly. Whether that translates to wins, eh.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Jerrion Ealy, Sophomore
RB	Snoop Carter, Sophomore
WR	Elijah Moore, Junior
	.
LB	Lakia Henry, Senior
LB	Sam Williams, Senior
LB	Donta Evans, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 13, 2020, 02:50:26 PM

So Mississippi (the state) is down to just one team.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 14, 2020, 08:53:07 AM

Ole Miss plays Baylor, UConn, GaSouthern, and SE Mizzou OOC and they get Florida and Vandy from the East. I see 2 wins at most in conference and 3 OOC.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 14, 2020, 04:37:30 PM

#62 Miami(Ohio) RedHawks

#1 in MAC

In winning their first MAC championship in nine years, and just their fourth since the end of a run of 12 in 30 years from 1948-1977, Miami(Ohio) was a year ahead of schedule, after Ohio was the unanimous preseason pick to win the division by the media. They are also one of the odder conference champions of all time, finishing outside the top 100 in SP+, losing 6 games, going 0-4 in non-conference FBS games, losing by an average of 31.8 points, all by double digits, and being a -87 on the season in point differential. But they went a perfect 5-0 in their division, a perfect 5-0 in one score games, was outgained four times in wins (despite not being an overall particularly fortunate turnover margin team), hit a 53 yard field goal in the waning minutes to upset Ohio, and closed on a 16-7 run to erase a second half deficit and upset Central Michigan in the MAC Championship. So while it’s unlikely they’ll get all those breaks to go their way again, the talent this year looks to actually be perhaps the most in the conference. A very young offense a year ago (which showed at times) is now one of the ten most experienced in the country, returning ten starters, including their starting quarterback, their two leading rushers, three of their four leading receivers, and their starting tight end; with an offensive line that returns a pair of senior All-MAC players. Brett Gabbert, younger brother of NFL quarterback Blaine Gabbert, did fairly well for a true freshman, trying to deal with a struggling running game. Gabbert had PWO offers from a number of Power Five schools, including his brother’s alma mater, Missouri. However he took the full ride from Miami, and was able to contribute right off the bat, completing 63% of his passes with a pair of touchdowns in his first game, at Iowa. And, as you would hope, he seemed to progress as the season went on, with his five highest passer ratings coming in the second half of the season, four of the five coming in November, or later. Their 3.4 ypc was second worst in the conference though, so even getting that up to four should help quite a bit. While they were a major positive in the close game luck, they were a clear negative on the injury luck front. All five starting linemen missed at least a game; and both leading running back Jaylon Bester and leading receiver Jack Sorensen missed a quarter of the season. Repeating is as much contingent on an experienced offense taking a step forward, as it is on the defense maintaining its level of play. While there is less certainty there, they still do return seven starters from what was the third best defense in the MAC, in terms of SP+, and second in ypp allowed. While linebackers play a reduced role in Spence Nowinsky’s scheme, which uses a base 4-2-5, the graduation of Myles Reid leaves a massive role in that spot, that struggled to find talent to pair with Reid last year. Ryan McWood led the team in tackles, but PFF viewed as more of a beneficiary of Reid’s play, than of his own production. Beyond that, Luke Boldin, who played in every game as a true freshman in 2019, but generated very little production, or incoming freshman C.J. Ware, who is Miami’s highest rated recruit, and had an offer from Louisville, might be the most solid options. They do get the benefit of playing behind Kameron Butler, who might be the best defensive lineman in the MAC< finishing fourth in the conference with 14.5 tackles for loss last year.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Brett Gabbert, Sophomore
T	Tommy Doyle, Senior
C	Danny Godlevsky, Senior
	.
DE	Kameron Butler, Junior
LB	Ryan McWood, Senior
CB	Emmanuel Rugamba, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 14, 2020, 06:56:52 PM

Man, for some reason I thought that the Redhawks were long gone.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 15, 2020, 09:19:40 AM

#61 UCLA Bruins

#9 in Pac 12

In 2013, a book was published entitled The Tao of Chip Kelly: Lessons from America’s Most Innovative Coach. That feels like a lifetime ago. If Chip Kelly was at one time America’s most innovative coach, I think now his story is that he was first, not the best. As more and more teams adopted and developed aspects of Kelly’s style, Chip himself has been passed by. Granted the situation he inherited in Eugene was a whole lot more favorable, but in four seasons at Oregon, he went 46-7, with a BCS Championship Game appearance, four consecutive BCS bowls, and three Pac 12 titles. It took him just 9 games to pile up 7 losses in Westwood, and he sits at 7-17 after two years, with the first consecutive bowl-less seasons for the Bruins since 1989 and 1990. He’s now staring at UCLA’s worst three year stretch since going 10-20 from 1962-1964, and at least that stretch included bookend Rose Bowl seasons in 1961 and 1965. He has plenty of returning starters, but is short on returning stars, losing all six players to garner any sort of postseason honors a year ago. There was also plenty of roster shuffling through the transfer portal, simply continuing what has been a fairly volatile roster situation during Kelly’s two years. The Bruins had 13 players exit, but brought in four players, including three instant impact Power Five transfers. The most important is probably Duke transfer Brittain Brown, who was originally a strong prospect from Georgia, with a Clemson offer, received a transfer offer from Wisconsin (who knows a thing or two about running backs), and was an academic All-ACC player, but suffered a season ending injury a year ago. The Chip Kelly offense isn’t going to work with 3.7 ypc, and that was with a likely future NFL Draftee in Joshua Kelley. Kelley got over 1,000 on a fine 4.6 ypc, but the fact that he’s an NFL player shows just what a mess this run game actually was. The rest of the team combined averaged just 61.8 ypg on 2.8 ypc. Part of the problem was starting three first time starter underclassmen on the offensive line, including a pair of TRUE freshmen on the left side in tackle Sean Rhyan and Duke Clemens. Even though starting right guard Chris Murray departed for Oklahoma, you would think the line should be substantially improved. If Dorian Thompson-Robinson continues to improve, and you mix in impact freshman Kyle Phillips, with incoming freshman receiver Logan Loya, there is the making of what could finally be a good offense. And they’ll have to be, because the defense is still going to be an absolute mess, particularly the secondary. Cornerback Darnay Holmes going pro made a bad situation worse. Bringing in Obi Eboh from Stanford helps, and the Bruins also added Qwuantrezz Knight from, wait for it, Kent State. The strength of the unit is certainly up front, led by Osa Odighizuwa, who led the team in tackles for loss. But not just him, all three starters return, and all six players from the two deep. The massive 340 pound Otito Ogbonnia is the ideal nose tackle, but that is seemingly just not a spot where underclassmen, used to relying on pure size, tend to thrive. I’m expecting a massive jump out of him going into his junior year, and it would not surprise me if he leaves early after the season for the NFL.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Junior
WR	Kyle Phillips, Sophomore
T	Jake Burton, Senior
	.
DE	Osa Odighizuwa, Senior
LB	Leni Toailoa, Senior
S	Stephan Blaylock, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 16, 2020, 10:33:31 AM

Good write up on UCLA. They had it made around 2012-15, reeling off top ten rankings and signing classes. Perhaps the signs of the usual limitations were already there, albeit well hidden. Even during the best of the Mora tenure the Bruins could never beat Stanford and they were benefitting from unusually stable stretches of quarterbacking between Hundley and Rosen.

The level of roster turnover under Kelly is like nothing I’ve ever seen, not only in terms of volume; key contributors are bolting at times most needed. The major positive I’ve seen in both of Kelly’s seasons were the in-season improvements. This season things should be more stable and if the Bruins can not be a train wreck to start and the play can similarly improve through a not too hard schedule, it should be enough for a bowl and another year promised to Kelly.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 16, 2020, 02:55:09 PM

#60 Florida Atlantic Owls

#3 in Conference USA

The whirlwind Lane Kiffin experience is over, and the next couple years will help shed some light on just exactly what he left behind. He certainly upgraded the talent, maybe overlooked some red flags, and made it the “cool” Florida mid-major, even while UCF was winning national championships*, but perhaps aided by USF’s struggles, filling that void. If nothing else, what Kiffin did was create a brand, create a niche, where FAU could succeed. The challenge facing new coach Willie Taggert is to maintain that brand. What makes it easy is that like Lane Kiffin, he’s a still relatively young coach who burned out at multiple higher profile jobs. He can sell kids on this being their second chance to make right, because he, like Kiffin, was living that. The early returns suggest that it is exactly what Taggert intends to do, bringing in transfers from power five schools, including Clemson and Florida State. That’s the type of talent Kiffin brought in, for the second time in three years, the Owls had multiple players leave early for the NFL. The offense brings back former Oklahoma player Chris Robison, the best quarterback in the conference, but the surrounding talent looks quite thin. Their dynamic two tight end offense from a year ago got a boost by John Raine getting an additional year. He’s no Harrison Bryant, who won the Mackey Award as the nation’s top tight end, and might be the first tight end off the board in the NFL Draft, but I’m not sure what this passing game would look like without either of them. They are going to be relying heavily on the aforementioned transfers, with four new receivers coming in to join John Mitchell and Willie Wright. I’d expect the offense to be a lot more open, to take advantage of Robison’s experience, and the sheer number of options he’ll have to throw the ball to. The beneficiary of that might be Malcolm Davidson, who led the conference with 7.0 ypc, but missed all of four games, and parts of others, limiting him to just 102 carries. That was still good for the 7th best ypc in the nation among qualified backs, but a full healthy season could put him in the Doak Walker discussion. For comparison, the other backs who got at least 50 carries for the Owls (James Charles, Larry McCammon III, Nick Tronti and B.J. Emmons) averaged just 4.4 ypc, lest you think he was just running behind an elite line. There was that big of a gap between him and their other options. Jim Leavitt, who was the head coach at South Florida from 1997-2009, and served as Taggert’s defensive coordinator at Oregon in 2017 was brought in as defensive coordinator, but you wonder if he looks at the roster, particularly the front seven, that looks totally depleted. Five players from the front seven are for sure gone, and the status of Akileis Leroy, probably the team’s best linebacker, is still unknown. He was suspended for the Boca Raton Bowl for academic reasons, and was not listed on the team’s spring roster. He indicates on his social media accounts that he is still a member of the team, but a fairly cryptic recent update was simply “#FAU21”. I’m not sure entirely what that means, but it perhaps indicates a full year academic suspension, with a 2021 return? Just anecdotally it seems like the number of kids who return to a team, roughly 21 months after their last game, due to an academic suspension, is nearly zero. But either way that doesn’t help a team that lost 57% of its defensive production, tenth most nationally, most in the front seven. The secondary, even with cornerback James Pierre leaving early for the Draft, is on solid ground, led by Meiko Dotson, whose 9 interceptions led the nation.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Chris Robison, Junior
TE	John Raine, Senior
G	Desmond Noel, Senior
	.
LB	Hosea Barnwell V, Senior
CB	Meiko Dotson, Senior
S	Zyon Gilbert, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on April 16, 2020, 03:53:55 PM

Well, ya learn something new every day. I didn't even remember Chris Robison, but I looked him up and he was a freshman (redshirting) at OU in 2017.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 17, 2020, 09:41:41 AM

#59 Oregon State Beavers

#8 in Pac 12

Oregon State flew under the radar last year, with good reason. They were picked to finish last in their division, nearly unanimously, and wound up 5-7, with no postseason. But they improved as the season progressed, going 4-5 in conference play, for their best season since 2013, matching the number of conference wins they had in their previous four seasons combined. Jonathan Smith already had a long leash, having been the quarterback of the best team in school history, the 2000 Beavers, who went 11-1, beat Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl, finished ranked #4, and won their lone Pac 8/10/12 championship. But if this quick trajectory continues, they may have no choice but to build a statue of the guy. To maintain momentum, he’ll have to lean heavily on his reputation as an offensive guru to keep that side of the ball afloat in what looks to be a massive overturn of a year. With receiver Isaiah Hodgins deciding to go pro early, the Beavers have to replace their starting quarterback, leading rusher, top receiver, starting tight end, and three linemen. All in all, that is 65% of their offensive production gone, 7th most nationally. But, all is not lost. Tristan Gebbia likely slides up into the starting quarterback role, with the Nebraska transfer seeing action in 4 games a year ago, including 1 start, completing 62.3% of his passes, and providing more of a running threat than Luton did. By some reports Gebbia nearly won the starting job over the incumbent Luton a year ago, and actually fits the Beavers’ offense better than what Luton did. Then at running back, while Artavis Pierce graduated, Jermar Jefferson was a freshman All-American in 2018, before regressing a bit last year, and then getting injured, missing the final month. If he can regain that freshman form, he could be better than Pierce was a year ago, although he has to improve as a pass catcher. The receiver group a year ago was one star in Hodgins, and a committee behind that. Hodgins had 86 receptions (2nd in Pac 12), 1,171 receiving yards (3rd in Pac 12), and 13 receiving touchdowns (most in Pac 12), but next was Champ Flemings, with the other players in the top four on the team being the aforementioned graduated running back, Pierce, and an also graduated tight end, Noah Togiai. Champ Flemings was the bigger deep threat, but without Hodgins drawing all of the safety attention, will those routes be there? The Beavers added some additional star power through the transfer portal, with a couple of former 4 stars from the state of Washington, by way of Florida State and Washington, respectively, in Tre-Shaun Harrison and Trey Lowe. Oregon State’s spring roster lists Lowe as a running back, however at just 5’8”, but an absolute burner, he looks like an ideal slot receiver to me, which is how he was recruited to Washington. However for as inexperienced as the offense is, the defense is the complete opposite. In fact, Oregon State, along with Vanderbilt are the only schools to rank in the top 12 in returning defensive production, and bottom 12 offensively. The Beavers’ defense is led by what appears to be the best group of linebackers in the country. The sure thing is Hamilcar Rashed Jr., who is neck and neck for best linebacker in the conference going into the season, but he might be surpassed by November by Omar Speights, who was the conference’s top freshman linebacker last year. Oh, and neither of them was the team leader in tackles last year. That was yet another linebacker, Avery Roberts. 7 of the 8 linebackers from the two deep return, with the only question being whether they will find the same space to play in without the underrated nose tackle Elu Aydon in front of them.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Jermar Jefferson, Junior
WR	Champ Flemings, Junior
T	Brandon Kipper, Junior
	.
LB	Hamilcar Rashed Jr., Senior
LB	Omar Speights, Sophomore
LB	Avery Roberts, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 17, 2020, 10:10:45 AM

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcSfa-IHCceK_ts0vxCx6yB7m_1FmbBCIvF7KCzQwAdCJC_oH7ey&usqp=CAU)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on April 17, 2020, 12:22:25 PM

Beavers moving on up

#8!

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 18, 2020, 07:06:57 PM

#58 Marshall Thundering Herd

#2 in Conference USA

After back to back division titles, including a Conference USA championship in 2014, Marshall had a down year in 2016, but has bounced back, only to be the bridesmaid. With Lane Kiffin out of the way, is the division title back for the taking? The Thundering Herd was the preseason favorite last year, and seemed well positioned, in control of their own destiny with just two weeks left, thanks to a road win at Florida Atlantic, and also with a near upset road win over Boise State to their name. But they surrendered back to back fourth quarter touchdowns to Charlotte, including a 25 yard touchdown pass on 4th and 10 with 48 seconds left, to cost themselves the division title. They return plenty of talent again, as part of a three horse race in the Conference USA East Division title race, the winner of which will be the prohibitive favorite in the Conference USA Championship Game. The running game should be strong, led by Brenden Knox, the conference’s leading rusher, and the only player to average over 100 rushing ypg, running behind five returning starting offensive linemen. The problem is that it took Knox 20.8 carries per game to get there, most in Conference USA, and fifth most nationally. They have to spread those carries out a little bit more. Backup Sheldon Evans also returns, averaging more yards per carry than Knox, but for some reason getting about a quarter of the carries. Tim Cramsey wanted a run focused offense, and Marshall ran the ball over 58% of the time last year, after being almost exactly 50/50 in 2018, in part because of the up and down play of quarterback Isaiah Green. Green threw for 218 yards per game, and was third in the conference in yards per completion. But he also only completed 56% of his passes, had the fourth highest interception rate, and was 11th among 13 qualified starting quarterbacks in passer rating, and 10th in QBR. However, if Marshall wins their first conference title in six years, it will be because the added pieces to a solid core made this the best defense in the conference. The Thundering Herd were looking top heavy on the defensive side of the ball, with All-Conference players returning at all three levels, but hurting a little bit in terms of depth, and pieces to insert around them. Doc Holliday, not wanting to waste all of those returning offensive starters, and his big defensive stars, turned to quick fixes. He brought in four JUCO transfers, all of whom might start immediately, and FCS transfer Brian Cavicante, from Delaware State, who sat out last year after registering 17 tackles for loss in 2018, twice as many as any Thundering Herd defender tallied last year. They also could get a boost if Derrek Pitts, a West Virginia transfer safety, who only played in parts of 3 games last year, is finally healthy. Pitts is an elite athlete, who was at one time committed to Penn State, and had offers from the likes of Clemson and Oklahoma, before landing in Morgantown, but simply hasn’t been able to put it together in college. If the JUCO and FCS transfers pan out, and Pitts is healthy, to compliment a strong but shallow core, this could be a top 40 SP+ defense.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Isaiah Green, Junior
RB	Brenden Knox, Junior
G	Cain Madden, Senior
	.
DE	Darius Hodge, Junior
LB	Tavante Beckett, Senior
S	Nazeeh Johnson, Senior

#57 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

#1 in Conference USA

So did Tyson Helton do one of the great under the radar coaching jobs last year, or was Mike Sanford just that unprepared for a head coaching job? Once Willie Taggert built up the FBS transition portion of his alma mater, the Hilltoppers went through three coaches in four years, seemingly without missing a beat. That was until Mike Sanford came in and drove it off a cliff in just two years. It takes a lot for a mid major like Western Kentucky to fire a head coach after just two seasons, but that’s what the administration decided they had to do with Sanford, who was hired at just 34...and fired at 36. Helton turned things right back around. They opened with a home loss to Central Arkansas, and two weeks later lost to Louisville. From there out, he won 8 of 10, with the two losses being to Marshall and Florida Atlantic, the two best teams in Conference USA. All in all a 6 win turnaround in his first year. If he can build on that and win a conference title in his second year, he will certainly be in line for a Power Five job. The offense appears to be just a quarterback away from being really good. Granted, that’s a pretty big piece to try to fill. Arkansas transfer Ty Storey was fantastic last year, completing 69.9% of his passes, highest in the Group of 5, sixth highest in the FBS. Offensive coordinator Bryan Ellis built the offense around Storey’s accuracy, with a lot of elements of the West Coast offense, a lot of dink and dunk. Storey averaged just 7.4 ypa, lowest of any quarterback in the top 25 in completion percentage, and his 141.7 passer rating was the lowest within the top 20. Steven Duncan is first in line to replace him, and the offense looked much, much different when he was in last year. He started three games, and played in nine in 2018, prior to Storey arriving, so it’s not an insignificant sample size for a backup quarterback. But he had roughly 11% lower a completion rate, but threw for more yards per game, but at a yard more per completion. Losing leading receiver Lucky Jackson hurts, because while Jahcour Pearson led the team in receiving touchdowns, and had 804 receiving yards himself, he’s a pure slot guy, and they need someone to stretch the field. While Joshua Simon was fantastic as a freshman, you typically don’t want a tight end to lead your team in yards per reception. Gaej Walker ran for 1,208 yards last year, second most in the conference, but by god, get the man some help. No other non-quarterback on the roster had more than 9 carries. When you go from Taggert to Petrino to Brohm, your bread and butter is offense, but I have the Hilltoppers top in Conference USA due to their defense, which should be outstanding. Bill Connelly projects them as the #22 SP+ defense in 2020, second highest in the Group of Five, behind only San Diego State. That’s not surprising considering their had the third best scoring defense a year ago, and have the 6th highest returning defensive production in the FBS. The Hilltoppers won first down, and were an elite third down defense. They were 15th nationally in standard down success rate, and were second nationally in third and long success rate. That group returns eight starters, adds a former 4* recruit from Tennessee in Will Ignont, and gets Eli Brown back from injury.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Gaej Walker, Senior
WR	Jahcour Pearson, Senior
TE	Joshua Simon, Sophomore
	.
DE	DeAngelo Malone, Senior
LB	Kyle Bailey, Senior
S	Antwon Kincaide, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 18, 2020, 07:12:34 PM

CUSA is the second out after the MAC.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 18, 2020, 07:13:44 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on April 18, 2020, 07:12:34 PM

So the ACC had the best worst team, and CUSA has the worst best team.

Nope, MAC did

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 18, 2020, 07:15:13 PM

Quick on the draw. Got me while I was editing it. That is twice now that the RedHawks have screwed me up in this thread.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 18, 2020, 07:22:13 PM

Which states have two left? Or more? Large number?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 18, 2020, 07:46:20 PM

Heh, I don't want to mess up again. At least not until we get to the next page.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 18, 2020, 08:51:00 PM

On second thought, I guess I might as well go down in flames.

2 Left: Alabama, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Virginia and Washington.

>2 Left: California, Florida, N Carolina, Pennsylvania and Texas.

Everyone else is either gone or down to their last team.

Iowa, Pennsylvania and Washington are the 2+ states that remain unblemished.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 19, 2020, 12:31:27 PM

#56 Mississippi State Bulldogs

#10 in SEC

If you read the local media’s quick takes after the 2019 season ended, it was nothing short of a disaster, but the talk was about how Moorhead better get things sorted out quickly or he could really be on the hot seat after this season. Turns out the seat was hotter than even those who supposedly have their fingers on the pulse of Bulldogs football, with Moorhead being fired on January 3, replaced less than a week later by Mike Leach. That marks a continuing trend in Starkville, since Jacie Sherrill retired in 2003, with their fourth consecutive hire of a head coach with a background on the offensive side of the ball. Leach, of course, comes with a much higher profile than any of the prior three, being the school’s first hire of a coach with prior FBS head coaching experience since hiring Sherrill out of NCAA purgatory in 1991. It’s the first time the school has hired away another school’s head coach since poaching Arthur Morton away from VMI in 1949. So saying expectations are high is an understatement. It might take a minute, based on the personnel he’s inheriting. The Bulldogs were heavily run reliant last year, running the ball over 60% of the time, accounting for 58% of their total yardage, both being second most in the SEC. Part of that was because quarterback Tommy Stevens, who followed Moorhead from Penn State to Mississippi State, couldn’t stay healthy, and they instead had to turn to true freshman Garrett Shrader, with predictably mixed results. Shrader returns, as does former 4* commit Keytaon Thompson, who initially entered the transfer portal. That said, he’s not exactly a fit for the air raid offense, and considering the lack of receiver options, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the athletic Thompson moved to receiver. Unsurprisingly, quarterbacks also begun lining up to play in Leach’s system, including a pair of transfers in K.J. Costello from Stanford, who is immediately eligible, and Allan Walters from Vanderbilt; He was also able to re-secure the commitment of Will Rogers, who committed to the old regime two years ago, but oddly enough was also offered by Leach, when Leach was still at Washington State. It will be interesting to see how quickly Leach attempts to input his system, but I think it’s safe to say that Kylin Hill will not come close to approaching his SEC leading 242 carries from a season ago. With 4 of the top 5 receivers and the starting tight end graduated, and another three receivers transferring out, there will be plenty of opportunities for breakout stars from the pass catching group. The defense, which has lost an insane amount of defensive talent over the past two seasons might surrender over 50 points a game with Leach’s offense being implemented, and trying to replace 6 graduated seniors, and another two early NFL Draft entrants. The depth was better than expected, so this unit might not be as bad off as it appears on paper, but it is insanely thin now. Any injury/suspension troubles like they had a season ago, and it could collapse in a hurry. A bounceback season from the defensive line, which returns the most experience, but underperformed last year, will help a lot.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Kylin Hill, Senior
WR	Osirus Mitchell, Junior
G	Stewart Reese, Senior
	.
LB	Errol Thompson, Senior
S	Marcus Murphy, Junior
S	C.J. Murphy, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2020, 12:36:49 PM

They play three pastries and NCSU, which they might beat, and catch Mizzou and UK in the East, so they could get 6 wins right there, add Arkansas and Ole Miss and you're 8-4 with a perhaps slightly better than average team.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on April 19, 2020, 02:23:12 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 19, 2020, 12:36:49 PM

They play three pastries and NCSU, which they might beat, and catch Mizzou and UK in the East, so they could get 6 wins right there, add Arkansas and Ole Miss and you're 8-4 with a perhaps slightly better than average team.

So, you're saying that it's easy to get bowl-eligible in the SEC West? ;)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2020, 02:27:21 PM

We all know the trick, play three patsies OOC at least, hope for a good draw from the other side, and maybe get an upset. ELA has MSU ranked above 7 of their opponents (I think). NCSU is not imposing OOC but they at least are P5. Add wins over Ole Miss and Arky and you're done even without Mizzou/UK.

I'd say it's easier to get there in the East obviously.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on April 19, 2020, 02:34:34 PM

No need to complicate things. I'll just stick to my nice, simple explanation: "CD says it's easy to win 8 games if you're a slightly-better-than-mediocre team in the SEC West." :)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 19, 2020, 02:48:10 PM

I wouldn't say easy, but doable with a break or two. In the SEC East, you might luck out and get Arky and Ole Miss in the draw. A half decent team should be able to compete with Mizzou/UK/Tenn/Vandy, USCe. Then play three pastries OOC. A few breaks and you're 10-2 and highly ranked, maybe 12th.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on April 20, 2020, 01:02:38 AM

OK, then. "Easier still to get bowl-eligible in the SEC East."

Got it.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2020, 09:35:27 AM

Yup, for a slightly better than average team, the recipe is obvious. Of course, you can get upset by average teams so it isn't foolproof. Obviously, it's still easier in the ACC right now anyway and probably the Pac. The Pac gets poor bowl options because they don't travel that well.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on April 20, 2020, 11:24:41 AM

What is this "Pac" you mention? Do its own fans know it exists?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 20, 2020, 01:16:40 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on April 20, 2020, 11:24:41 AM

What is this "Pac" you mention? Do its own fans know it exists?

Not many do, I think it's a secret. Speaking of which, what is "this" going to do for athletic financials?

Can't be good.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on April 20, 2020, 01:47:19 PM

Gonna be very bad.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 20, 2020, 02:19:44 PM

Cali isn't shy about dropping sports either. Particularly football.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 20, 2020, 02:37:12 PM

#55 San Diego State Aztecs

#3 in Mountain West

Continuing on our past discussion of coaches on the downside of their career cycling back to programs they had previously used as stepping stones on the way up, we have Brady Hoke returning to San Diego State, where he was at prior to taking the Michigan job. Hoke sort of launched the Rocky Long era, which was clearly the most successful tenure in Aztec football history. But it was Hoke’s 9-4 season in 2010, which got him the Michigan job, and launched that. It was the program’s first bowl game in 12 years, and the most wins in a season since 1977. Since then, San Diego State has gone to ten consecutive bowl games, and their #25 final ranking in 2016, was their first in the AP Poll since that same 1977 season. In other words, Brady Hoke is stepping into very different expectations than he was in 2009. But for a former defensive line coach, he has to like what he’s got in the trenches. Even with center Keith Ismael leaving early for the NFL, the offensive line looks to be strong, with three returning starters, led by breakout freshman William Dunkle. The defensive line could be even better, thanks to a freshman interior lineman of their own, in nose tackle Cameron Thomas. He’s back, along with Keshawn Banks, an All-Conference end to his right; the base for a line that ranked #1 in the country in overall line yard push. They were one of just three defensive lines (along with Michigan State and UAB) to allow below 2 yards; and were top 4 nationally in four other line metrics. The problem is who is going to support what should be elite line play, on both sides? An offense, the Aztecs have to replace their starting quarterback, running back, and tight end/H-Back/fullback, do everything, Parker Houston. Carson Baker saw limited action at quarterback in two games as a redshirt freshman last year, but San Diego State also brought in a grad transfer from Georgia Tech, in Lucas Johnson, who originally committed to San Diego State as a high school recruit, but flipped to Georgia Tech. He only appeared in five games in his Yellow Jacket career, attempting just 37 career passes, so he’s far from a sure thing himself. This isn’t a quarterback school, it’s a running school; so for this line to prove its worth, the run game has to get back on track. The Aztecs produced a top 15 rusher nationally in every year from 2010 until 2017, save one, with a pair of national leaders in the mix. But after finishing as the 6th best rushing team in ypa in 2016, and 9th in 2017; that fell to #82 in 2018 and #118 in 2019. Chance Bell and Chase Jasmin, who both got plenty of carries last year when Juwan Washington missed four games with injuries, are the obvious choices to step up; but Greg Bell, a Nebraska transfer who sat out nearly all of 2018 to preserve his redshirt year, then missed all of 2019 with a summer injury, is probably the most talented back on the roster. The defense has a similar problem at linebacker, with three graduating. Considering the imbalance between the line and the backers, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 3-3-5 of Rocky Long be replaced by a 4-2-5. There’s not a ton of track record to look at, but it appears that new defensive coordinator Kurt Mattix’s defenses at Eastern Kentucky, were high risk-high reward; relying primarily on generating sacks and turnovers, willing to risk allowing the big play.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Kobe Smith, Junior
G	William Dunkle, Sophomore
K	Matt Araiza, Sophomore
	.
DE	Keshawn Banks, Junior
DT	Cameron Thomas, Sophomore
S	Tariq Thompson, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 20, 2020, 11:22:12 PM

Quote from: ELA on April 19, 2020, 12:31:27 PM

#56 Mississippi State Bulldogs
#10 in SEC
If you read the local media’s quick takes after the 2019 season ended, it was nothing short of a disaster, but the talk was about how Moorhead better get things sorted out quickly or he could really be on the hot seat after this season. Turns out the seat was hotter than even those who supposedly have their fingers on the pulse of Bulldogs football, with Moorhead being fired on January 3, replaced less than a week later by Mike Leach.

KEY PLAYERS
RB Kylin Hill, Senior
WR Osirus Mitchell, Junior
G Stewart Reese, Senior
.
LB Errol Thompson, Senior
S Marcus Murphy, Junior
S C.J. Murphy, Senior

Is there more to the story of Moorhead getting canned? Going 6-6 and beating your in-State rival in your second year shouldn’t warrant a pink slip. Especially given the suspension issues they were dealing with. MSU essentially played without 5 to 6 starters every game last year and still broke even. Unless, of course, Moorhead could be blamed, in part, for the suspensions.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on April 20, 2020, 11:29:47 PM

Ya that did seem strange given his supposed prowess and their place in the pecking order.Hell even blue bloods wouldn't be raisng eyebrows after just 2 seasons and being shackled like that.Gotta be more to the story

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 07:29:11 AM

I suspect they saw a chance to snag a well known persona and jumped for it. Alumni etc. wielding influence.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 21, 2020, 03:48:07 PM

#54 Miami Hurricanes

#9 in ACC

The only constant in Coral Gables recently, has been inconsistency. The offense should have a totally new look after a disastrous close to 2019, getting shut out in the Independence Bowl by Louisiana Tech. So out after just one year is offensive coordinator Dan Enos, and freshman quarterback Jarren Williams, who transferred out. For those keeping score at home, the Enos/Williams combination replaced the OC/freshman quarterback combination from 2018, of Thomas Brown and N’Kosi Perry. While Williams left, Perry remains on the roster, as does Ohio State transfer Tate Martell, the presumptive starter going into 2019, before being passed over by Williams. D’Eriq King, arguably the top transfer quarterback on the market, joins the team, and while seeing Martell transfer only to not win the job last year was surprising, for it not to be King this year would be a total shock. Pulling the strings is Rhett Lashlee, a Gus Malzahn disciple, who coordinated SMU’s offense a year ago, and played at the third fastest pace in the FBS. This is not Lashlee’s first crack at the Power Five level. He was Malzahn’s quarterback coach back at Springdale High School, and followed him to Arkansas, Auburn, Arkansas State, and eventually back to Auburn. From 2004-2016, they were only apart for one year. However, by 2016 Malzahn had taken control of the offense back from Lashlee, who left for UConn. King, likewise has had a ton of success...but at the AAC level. In his last full season, 2018, he finished 4th in the nation in Total QBR, behind only Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jake Fromm; ahead of Dwayne Haskins, Trevor Lawrence, and Will Grier. Not that Oklahoma or Washington State are known for their defensive prowess, but King acquitted himself decently against them last year, albeit relying more on his legs, than his arm. He’s not going to survive the season running the ball 15 plus times a game this year. That said, his ability to run, may help ease what was the biggest problem with the Hurricane offense, a dismal pass blocking line. Miami opened the season by allowing 10 sacks against Florida, and wound up allowing the fourth most sacks per game in the FBS. So while the Hurricanes averaged just 3.7 ypc, third worst in the ACC; you take away the quarterback sacks, it jumps to 2nd. That inability to pass block just trickled down. They were the worst third down conversion team in the nation, because once you knew they had to pass it, they were particularly awful. And even when they got into short yardage situations, an offensive line, which was generally at least mediocre in run blocking, couldn’t get it done. Their 48% short down conversion percentage was also the worst in the nation. They started three freshmen and two sophomores, all of whom return, so you have to hope there was some growth. But for as bad as the line was at keeping their quarterbacks upright, the defensive line was equally good, generating the fourth highest sack rate in the nation, led by Gregory Rousseau. The defensive line was top 11 nationally in six of the eight metrics tracked by Football Outsiders, and Rousseau finished second, behind only Chase Young, with 15.5 sacks. There were no other freshmen in the top 25. Rousseau redshirted in 2018 after suffering a season ending injury in the second game, so he’ll be draft eligible after this sophomore season. I wouldn’t put money on getting him back. Aside from Rousseau the defense could take a major step back, after 6 starters graduated, and another two left early for the draft. Rousseau is the only starter back from that front seven.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	D'Eriq King, Senior
RB	Cam'Ron Harris, Junior
TE	Brevin Jordan, Junior
	.
DE	Gregory Rousseau, Sophomore
CB	D.J. Ivey, Junior
S	Gurvan Hall Jr., Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on April 21, 2020, 03:52:48 PM

good for the Canes!

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on April 21, 2020, 05:36:38 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on April 21, 2020, 03:52:48 PM

good for the Canes!

The Canes being ranked #54 makes me think of Woody Hayes and his comment about going for 2 against Michigan.
To wit:
Q: Why do you have the Canes ranked #54.
A: Because #55 was already taken!

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: 847badgerfan on April 21, 2020, 05:54:02 PM

I like to think that the Badgers have a lot to do with Miami's position in the world these days.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 21, 2020, 06:06:57 PM

It was completely unfair to play that bowl game in near freezing, or at least in the 40s, weather.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 21, 2020, 06:32:07 PM

02 NCG knocked the U off of their perch. They haven't been the same since.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 21, 2020, 07:28:02 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on April 21, 2020, 06:32:07 PM

02 NCG knocked the U off of their perch. They haven't been the same since.

They really haven't been the same since like 1994. They had like a three year flare up under Butch.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on April 21, 2020, 10:34:41 PM

Good, dominated by the pipeline

fullback trap

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 22, 2020, 03:28:33 PM

#53 TCU Horned Frogs

#9 in Big XII

In his now two decade career as head coach at TCU, Gary Patterson has only finished below .500 four times. After 2004, he responded with an 11-1 2005, winning a Mountain West title, finishing ranked #11. After 2013, TCU went 12-1 in 2014, winning their only Big XII title, and then winning the Peach Bowl, to finish ranked #3. Then, after 2016, TCU went 11-3 in 2017, reached the Big XII Championship Game, and wound up ranked #9. So what do the Horned Frogs have as a follow up to their second worst season 1997? I worried that TCU would struggle to fill their roster against the established Big XII Texas schools, but that hasn’t been the case. In my big board I assembled for my mock draft, TCU had 7 players on the list, 4 of which should be locks to be gone prior to Saturday. By comparison Texas and Baylor each have 5 and 1; Texas A&M has 4 and 1; and Texas Tech has 3 and 1. So bringing in talent has not been a problem, but the flip side is what happens to a 5-7 team that loses that much NFL talent? In Fort Worth, as long as Gary Patterson is there, the defensive side of the ball will almost never be a problem. Even last year, the Horned Frogs allowed just 5.3 ypp, second best in the conference. That was keyed by being rock solid all the way up the middle. While defensive tackle Ross Blacklock left early, and looks to be a first round pick, the back seven portion of that group should be even better. Middle linebacker Garrett Wallow might not be the high end, next level talent of a Blaylock, but you can’t pick a better guy to quarterback the defense. He was a 3* recruit out of New Orleans, who was an academic standout, with offers from Vanderbilt, Duke and Northwestern, played as a freshman, began starting midway through his sophomore year, and developed into the Big XII’s leading tackler as a junior last year. He seems to be a lock to be a defensive captain this year. But behind him, might be even more special, with the best pair of safeties in the nation. Ar’Darius Washington has the most upside of any defensive player in the conference in my opinion. After redshirting in 2018, Washington had a breakout 2019, that saw him named Big XII Defensive Freshman of the Year, graded by PFF as the second best safety in the nation...behind only his partner, Trevon Moehring. But this defense was great last year, as I said second best in the conference, and that didn’t even get them to bowl eligibility, because the offense was absolutely awful. Patterson went with true freshman Max Duggan, and it didn’t go well. The Horned Frogs passing game averaged just 6.2 ypa, with a passer rating of 112.4, both easily worst in the conference. And that was with Jalen Reagor, one of the most talented receivers in the country. Now Duggan has to figure out how to vastly improve, even without Reagor, who left early for the NFL Draft, with a totally unknown running game, that features a leading returning rusher being a redshirt freshman, who maintained his redshirt status last year by running for 99 yards in 3 games. I just see more of the same, with a great defense being wasted by a bad offense, and a team playing late in the year for bowl eligibility.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Max Duggan, Sophomore
WR	Taye Barber, Junior
TE	Pro Wells, Junior
	.
LB	Garrett Wallow, Senior
S	Trevon Moehring, Junior
S	Ar'Darius Washington, Sophomore

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on April 22, 2020, 05:23:59 PM

Quote from: CatsbyAZ on April 20, 2020, 11:22:12 PM

Is there more to the story of Moorhead getting canned? Going 6-6 and beating your in-State rival in your second year shouldn’t warrant a pink slip. Especially given the suspension issues they were dealing with. MSU essentially played without 5 to 6 starters every game last year and still broke even. Unless, of course, Moorhead could be blamed, in part, for the suspensions.

Sort of a blend of things.
He was an offensive guy who came in and didn't have a good offense.
One of those not-good offenses meant 8-5 with the best defense the school will likely ever see.
After losing a QB who regressed badly under the new coach (he also almost had his foot torn off the year prior), they had one of the new coach's guys, a transfer, flame out badly.
In an insular place, he had a lot of outsider to him.

But I heard the biggest thing was that they had him go from the new hotness to kinda flat, and their rival go all the new hotness with Lane. And so with the sense they were leaking oil, they wanted to get that buzz back. Almost messed it up before they didn't.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 22, 2020, 05:29:51 PM

I think there was a mutual aspect to it too. Weren't there rumors his people had reached out to Rutgers almost as soon as Ash was fired?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on April 22, 2020, 07:33:54 PM

Quote from: ELA on April 22, 2020, 05:29:51 PM

I think there was a mutual aspect to it too. Weren't there rumors his people had reached out to Rutgers almost as soon as Ash was fired?

Might be. I thought that was more reaction to the sense he might get canned.

In either case, he'll either spiral his career or make Oregon look real smart in the coming years.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 22, 2020, 08:33:29 PM

Quote from: ELA on April 22, 2020, 03:28:33 PM

#53 TCU Horned Frogs
#9 in Big XII
Middle linebacker Garrett Wallow might not be the high end, next level talent of a Blaylock, but you can’t pick a better guy to quarterback the defense. He seems to be a lock to be a defensive captain this year. But behind him, might be even more special, with the best pair of safeties in the nation. Ar’Darius Washington has the most upside of any defensive player in the conference in my opinion. After redshirting in 2018, Washington had a breakout 2019, that saw him named Big XII Defensive Freshman of the Year, graded by PFF as the second best safety in the nation...behind only his partner, Trevon Moehring. But this defense was great last year, as I said second best in the conference, and that didn’t even get them to bowl eligibility, because the offense was absolutely awful.

So with lots of talent in a hyped secondary, maybe we can see whether that’s what’s needed to counter the conference’s obsessive arms race when it comes to passing, to the point that other areas of the roster are an afterthought in the Big 12.

As the disparity favoring offense over defense has become more obvious in the Big 12, especially over the past 5 years, it’s hard to tell whether it’s a matter of talent difference because of neglectful recruiting and player development or whether coaching creativity is overspent on design of the offense. Probably a bit of both given the innate overlap. What’s certainly clear is how far the Big 12 has let their defenses statistically decline. Kinda like how Walgreens is letting its photo labs come to a slow end.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 24, 2020, 10:53:34 AM

#52 Texas Tech Red Raiders

#8 in Big XII

Texas Tech wasn’t so bad that you could call it a rebuild, but simply calling it a retooling sort of unsold the roster issues. What it needed was an enema. Kingsbury’s tenure wasn’t just marked by mediocrity but by a number a character decisions that backfired. Matt Wells is simultaneously trying to upgrade the talent, while cleansing the lockeroom. The result was losses in 8 of their final 10 games, and the transfers of five skill position players, including guys who were at times the starting quarterback and starting running back last year. Said quarterback, it was subsequently revealed, had several pending sexual assault charges, and the running back only ascended to the starting role when the previous starter was arrested for theft and booted off the team last summer. You would think at some point the Raiders might just run out of running backs, but all that did was allow freshman SaRoderick Thompson to emerge from buried on the depth chart at the end of spring ball last year to being the starting running back by midseason. His coming out party was when he ran for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns against Baylor’s Big XII leading run defense. That was his only 100 yard game though, even though the Red Raiders’ line measured out as one of the 20 best in the nation, anchored by 4 seniors. The problem was that Texas Tech, which always put up big passing numbers, even when their quarterbacks maybe weren’t as talented as their numbers suggested. Alex Bowman regressed in his injury plagued sophomore season, where he only played in four games, but saw his ypa attempt drop by 1.5 ypa versus under Kingsbury, and his completion percentage and TD:INT also regress. Matt Wells probably didn’t think he was leaving a better quarterback behind in Logan, Utah, when he took the job. The thing about that, is Matt Wells knows how to coach quarterbacks. He, with offensive coordinator David Yost, were the head coach and offensive coordinator the year prior, together at Utah State, where they had the FBS’ 3rd highest scoring offense, putting Jordan Love on the map. If Bowman is healthy, I think he’ll perform. If he isn’t healthy...it could get really ugly. There isn’t another quarterback on the roster who has attempted a pass at this level. There are a pair of redshirt freshmen who saw no game action last year, and a Division II transfer who had lost his starting job before transferring. They didn’t even take a quarterback in their 2020 class. The receiver group loses grad transfer R.J. Turner, who led the team in receptions, but returns 9 of 11 other players who caught at least 10 passes. T.J. Vasher looks like an NFL receiver at 6’6”, but has struggled to stay on the field with suspensions. Erik Ezukamma ended the season with a big game against Texas, and might establish himself as the #1 if Vasher can’t get out of his own way long enough to let his talent shine. Defense is rarely an emphasis in Lubbock, but Wells was angry enough after surrendering 36 ppg a year ago to make a pair of staff changes on that side of the ball after just one year. He also added JUCO transfer Krishon Merriweather, one of the top JUCO linebackers on the market, as a quick fix, due to the loss of Jordyn Brooks, who was the team’s best defender last year.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	SaRodorick Thompson, Sophomore
C	Dawson Deaton, Junior
K	Trey Wolff, Sophomore
	.
DE	Eli Howard, Senior
LB	Riko Jeffers, Senior
CB	DaMarcus Fields, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 11:19:56 AM

Kliffie never fulfilled his promise and left the Red Raiders' program in a mess. And yet now he is an NFL head coach. Wonders never cease.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: fezzador on April 24, 2020, 11:58:20 AM

If you look up the term "fail up" in the dictionary, it has Kingsbury's portrait next to it.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on April 24, 2020, 12:39:34 PM

Yep. Exhibit #1.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 24, 2020, 08:37:45 PM

Quote from: ELA on April 24, 2020, 10:53:34 AM

T.J. Vasher looks like an NFL receiver at 6’6”, but has struggled to stay on the field with suspensions.

Saw Vasher play in person last season. His physical presence and speed really stood out on the field; guy has the physical tools to fit right into the NFL. He needs coaching up, and if he can have a productive year and keep it togeter off the field the NFL can put him to good use.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 24, 2020, 09:39:52 PM

#51 West Virginia Mountaineers

#7 in Big XII

We continue our run on Big XII teams, but leave the state of Texas. I thought West Virginia’s drop last year would be more muted than most, but I don’t think I fully appreciated just how bare the cupboard was left by Holgorson. I still think Neal Brown was a really good hire, but while the offense figures to rebound from last year, he’s got his work cut out for him defensively. The Stills brothers from nearby Fairmont, West Virginia are rock solid on the line, and allow a lot of freedom behind them, but the Mountaineers lost nearly all the depth along the line, and 5 of the 8 starters behind them have moved on. Gaining some stability on the back end is needed after a pair of very talented players let the program down. Kenny Robinson Jr. was expelled for an academic violation, and spent last season playing in the XFL, before entering the 2020 NFL Draft. Then Kwantel Raines, who was one of the highest rated safety recruits in the nation was unable to find the field, and wound up transferring to Temple. Defensive coordinator Vic Koenning, 60 years old, with 17 season of coordinating experience, showed that off in maximizing what talent he had there, trying to create havoc, and largely succeeding. They were top 30 in the nation in havoc rate; the problem is they racked up negative plays, but not turnovers, ranking bottom 25 nationally in turnovers created rate. When the offense is as bad as the Mountaineers’ was last year, you need to create some turnovers, and probably score off some yourself. Because where I really undersold West Virginia’s dropoff though was on the offensive side of the ball, where I figured there was at least some talent left behind. It appears I was wrong. The offensive production plummeted from #9 in SP+ in 2018, to #100 last year. They return their starting quarterback, leading rusher, and six of their seven top receivers. Is it really as simple as experience though? The offensive line never recovered from the injury, and eventual transfer of Josh Sills, and now has to replace both starting tackles. It was the middle of the line that really struggled to open running lanes, as the Mountaineers sputtered to just 2.6 ypc, worst in the Big XII by over a yard and a half per carry, second worst in the entire FBS, ahead of only Akron. So I’m not sure what sort of progression can necessarily be expected there. In Sam Jones at wide receiver, they do have an absolute star in the making though. He finished third in the Big XII with 69 receptions, as only a freshman. Now, he just needs to figure out how to do more with it after the reception. His 9.8 ypc was easily the least of any player in the conference with at least 19 receptions, with 11.5 being the next lowest, and his 2 receiving touchdowns put him only third on his own team, a team that had the third fewest touchdown passes in the Big XII. While there is some growing buzz to turn from Oklahoma transfer Austin Kendall as starting quarterback, to Bowling Green transfer Jarrett Doege, I’m not ready to buy in yet. Kendall had injury problems, but was never replaced for performance. Yes, Doege had better numbers in his three game stint at the end, but Kendall was in and out all year, and gave the staff plenty of chance to replace him, and they never did.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Austin Kendall, Senior
RB	Leddie Brown, Junior
WR	Sam James, Sophomore
	.
DE	Dante Stills, Junior
DT	Darius Stills, Senior
LB	Josh Chandler, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 24, 2020, 10:22:57 PM

So the ELA Top 50 by Conference: 9 Sec, 9 Big Ten, 8 Acc, 7 Pac 12, 6 Big Xii, 1 Independent, and a whopping 10 G5 (6 AAC, 2 MWC and 2 Sunbelt)

.

By State: Texas is in the lead with 4, while Florida, N Carolina and Pennsylvania each have 3.
There are 2 teams remaining in Alabama, California, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Virginia and Washington.
Down to the final team: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Maryland, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Oregon, S Carolina, Utah and Wisconsin.

~~And my states appear to be off by one, and for once it is not the fault of Miami(OH). So whoever can issue that correction wins the internet for the day~~. <<fixed

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 25, 2020, 04:23:03 PM

#50 SMU Mustangs

#6 in American

And now we leave the Big XII, but return to Texas, where SMU had their best season since 1984, pre death penalty. The Mustangs were 8-0 and ranked #15, the visiting team when Gameday went to Memphis on November 2. They had an uneven finish, losing by one score to the Tigers, and Navy, and then a lousy performance against Florida Atlantic in the Boca Raton Bowl. So while they didn’t get the Group of Five’s New Years Six slot, which appeared possible on Halloween, the season was a success, and after his failure at Cal, I don’t think any Power Five school is coming after a 51 year old Sonny Dykes for a second shot. But as 2020 goes, he’s got some major retooling to do. At least starting quarterback Shane Buchele returns, but when Buchele lines up under center, he’s going to look around and need an armband just to remember the names of the guys around him. The Mustangs have to replace their two leading rushers, and two of their three starting receivers. Retaining Buchele is big, but finding someone to replace James Proche, and his 111 receptions, is probably not happening. T.J. McDaniel at running back and Reggie Roberson at receiver seem like the next big stars, but they have big shoes to fill. JUCO transfer Danny Gray, who flipped from TCU, and is the highest rated recruit SMU has pulled in in a decade also could be an immediate contributor. Dykes knows his stuff, the Mustangs have the best quarterback in the conference, and the line is anchored by Jaylon Thomas, the best NFL prospect in the conference. I trust it will get sorted out to some level. It’s the defense that is far more concerning, losing seven starters off a unit that allowed the fourth most ypp in the American. Their defensive “success” last year was predicated off of pressuring the quarterback, tallying easily the most sacks in the conference, with the third highest sack rate of any Group of Five team. Problem is replacing Patrick Nelson and Delontae Scott, who combined for 22 sacks and 36 tackles for loss. They were the only set of teammates in the nation to both record at least 18 tackles for loss, and one of just two sets of teammates (along with Zack Baun and Chris Orr of Wisconsin) to both have double digit sacks. They did get a little bit of instant help, from grad transfer defensive tackle Michael Williams from Stanford, but their high school recruiting didn’t get quite the quick uptick you’d hope for in such a talent rich market. Sometimes that success is too deep in the recruiting cycle (particularly now with the early Signing Day), that it takes a year for it to reflect in the interest of prospects. It’s hard to judge where a class is headed based on three prospects, but any class, particularly at this level, currently headed by a top 70 national recruit, the #4 dual threat quarterback in the nation, and easily the highest rated prospect SMU has reeled in in the 247 era, Preston Stone, is going to be pretty good. Signing Day is a long way away, but if Dykes can keep him in the fold, expect him to start Day 1 in 2021.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Shane Buchele, Senior
TE	Kylen Granson, Senior
T	Jaylon Thomas, Junior
	.
DE	Turner Coxe, Junior
LB	Richard McBryde, Senior
LB	Delano Robinson, Senior

#49 Missouri Tigers

#9 in SEC

I know the bowl ban set a damper on the season, but Missouri had WAY too much talent for the season they had. They went 6-6, without a win over a single bowl team, with losses to Wyoming and Vanderbilt, and weren’t competitive against Kentucky, Georgia or Florida. They had plenty of NFL talent, including three players who departed early, and added Kelly Bryant from Clemson. You can’t say they hadn’t bought into coach Barry Odom either, because when given the chance to transfer without penalty, prior to the season, once the penalties came out, the players didn’t. It just somehow didn’t work. The 2020 team is certainly less talented than the 2019 version, but the quick rising Eliah Drinwitz will be given time to build his program his way. The 37 year old was a position coach in the Group of Five, just six years ago, and has only one year of head coaching experience, taking Appalachian State to a 12-1 season last year. The defense lost their three best players, but return all eight other starters after allowing just 4.9 ypp last year, fourth best in the SEC. They could be even better this year, projected as the #18 SP+ defense, assuming that all of the surrounding pieces progress. They are very solid in the middle with Nick Bolton, who could be a preseason first team All-SEC linebacker. If the Tigers become a top 25ish team, he’ll be a name. Just by chance, you assume two of the other seven returning starters will take a big leap. But oh boy, the offense has some issues. The flip side to taking a senior transfer quarterback is that if it doesn’t work, as Bryant didn’t, you also have set yourself back going forward. If one is to look at what Drinkwitz ran last year at Appalachian State, it was a run heavy approach, which only attempted about 26 passes a game, the 20th most run heavy team in the country. Granted when you are running roughshod over the Sun Belt, it’s easy to lean into the run. However once he takes a look at his offensive personnel in Columbia, he may feel the same. Larry Rountree III and Tyler Badie form a solid 1-2 punch at running back, with Rountree getting more the carries, at about a 63%-37% split. But Badie is a major threat as a pass catcher, with 32 receptions last year, to Rountree’s 3. The problem is those 32 receptions led the team. And from that disappointing group of receivers, they lost their top two, plus their starting tight end. It’s no coincidence that the top 4 rated players in Missouri’s 2020 recruiting class are three receivers and an all-purpose back, who may translate to a slot receiver in college. All four have a chance to see immediate playing time, at a position of need, for a new coach, installing a new offense. To replace Kelly Bryant, TCU transfer Shawn Robinson was supposed to have the spring to stake his claim to a lead, with his only competition coming from last year’s back up Taylor Powell, because redshirt freshman Connor Bazelak is still rehabbing a torn ACL, true freshman Brady Cook did not enroll early, and Lindsey Scott transferred to Nebraska. With spring being lost, it could be a wide open four man battle going into fall. I would bet on either Robinson or Cook though.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Larry Rountree III, Senior
T	Larry Borom, Junior
G	Case Cook, Junior
	.
DT	Kobie Whiteside, Senior
LB	Nick Bolton, Junior
S	Tyree Gillespie, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 25, 2020, 06:25:00 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on April 24, 2020, 10:22:57 PM

And my states appear to be off by one, and for once it is not the fault of Miami(OH). So whoever can issue that correction wins the internet for the day.

Idaho. I was missing Idaho.

I will edit that post in order to add them.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on April 26, 2020, 11:48:33 AM

Breaking the P5s down by division:

Acc: 4 Atlantic/4 Coastal
Big Ten: 5 East/4 West
Pac 12: 4 North/3 South
Sec: 4 East/4 West
Big Xii: 6 teams (no divisions)

In the G5:
Aac: 3 East/2 West
Mwc: 2 Mountain/0 West (odd considering that the West "should" have a tremendous recruiting advantage with CA, HI and NV)
Sunbelt: 1 East/1 West

So a lot of parity within these conferences, at least with regards to the way in which the divisions are divvied up.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on April 26, 2020, 11:55:46 AM

Big Ten: 5 East/4 West

winning!

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 26, 2020, 12:15:46 PM

Interesting E/W splits there, both sides have the same number of pretty bad teams across conferences.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on April 26, 2020, 12:24:03 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 26, 2020, 12:15:46 PM

Interesting E/W splits there, both sides have the same number of pretty bad teams across conferences.

Now, now! There are no bad teams. There are only differentially talented teams. ;)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 26, 2020, 01:06:07 PM

#48 Michigan State Spartans

#9 in Big Ten

When I made these rankings, I knew Michigan State was going through a very late coaching transition. What I didn’t know is that spring practice would be totally washed out, so that if we have football in the fall, it will be a very small amount of time this new staff has to implement what they want to run. That said, I’m not sure it was going to be any worse than if the coaching staff had remained in place. The Spartans had a bounceback 2017, after a horrible 2016, when a very young roster that seemed poised to get Michigan State back to where they had been from 2011-2015. Instead they went 14-12 as that 10-3 roster matured, and a lot of the overlooked 2017 issues reared their head. They were still incredibly thin from bad recruiting and departures. As healthy as they stayed in 2017, they did not the following two years. And the offensive issues in 2017 were ignored by going 6-0 in games decided by one score or less (including 4 wins when scoring 17 or fewer). That flipped to 5-5 over 2018 and 2019, and 1-10 in the games where they scored 17 or fewer, the lone win being a 14-10 snore-fest at home against Rutgers. The fact that the team had 11 such games over the past two seasons is why fresh blood was needed on offense. While the quarterback position is in flux, the remaining slots actually are showing promise. Elijah Collins emerged as a freshman running back, to earn third team all-Big Ten honors, with the most rushing yards by a Spartan since Jeremy Langford in 2014. He did that in spite of an offensive line that gave him nothing to work with. Then, the areas Michigan State seemed to struggle in all year, offensive line and receiver, seemed to improve late, as the staff turned to the freshmen. Somewhat reminiscent of 2016, when guys like Joe Bachie and Kenny Willekes and Justin Layne started getting worked int, and the defense started playing a little better. But the quarterback position remains potentially a big problem. Rocky Lombardi is the only one with any meaningful experience...and no Michigan State fan wants him to win the job. He had a strong debut against Purdue, and then fell off a cliff. The other options are redshirt sophomore Theo Day, who was the highest rated recruit of the quarterbacks, redshirt freshman Payton Thorne, who flipped from Western Michigan once Michigan State lost their quarterback commit to Ohio State, and incoming freshman Noah Kim, who flipped from Virginia Tech. While certainly not every Michigan State quarterback has worked out (Andrew Maxwell, Tyler O’Conner), I haven’t felt this unconfident in the quarterbacking spot since 2009, when Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol battled to replace Brian Hoyer. The defense is in serious need of some dudes. The horrible offense wasted a pair of great defenses, and now Michigan State must replace 7 starters, including 4 likely NFL Draft picks (writing this Saturday). While Kenny Willekes and Joe Bachie were the emotional leaders of the defense, Antjuan Simmons was the brains of the operation. A well spoken, natural leader, his return might be more important than his more heralded teammates, particularly considering the shape of the front seven. The secondary, even with Josiah Scott’s early departure looks solid, even more so if the rumors of WR/CB Julian Barnett, the jewel of the Spartans’ 2019 class, sticking on defense are true. While “No Fly Zone” is premature, Barnett and fellow sophomore Kalon Gervin would be the highest upside cornerback pair of the Dantonio/Tucker era. But the front seven, aside from Simmons, has a ton of questions Naquan Jones goes from part of a great three man interior line rotation to the only known commodity. And the Spartans could be starting two walk ons at linebacker. Throw in the consensus toughest schedule in the country, and just getting bowl eligible seems like too tall of a task for this group.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Elijah Collins, Sophomore
C	Nick Samac, Sophomore
K	Matt Coghlin, Senior
	.
DE	Jacub Panasiuk, Senior
LB	Antjuan Simmons, Junior
S	Xavier Henderson, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 26, 2020, 02:10:43 PM

Quote from: ELA on April 26, 2020, 01:06:07 PM

#48 Michigan State Spartans
#9 in Big Ten
The horrible offense wasted a pair of great defenses, and now Michigan State must replace 7 starters, including 4 likely NFL Draft picks (writing this Saturday). While Kenny Willekes and Joe Bachie were the emotional leaders of the defense, Antjuan Simmons was the brains of the operation. A well spoken, natural leader, his return might be more important than his more heralded teammates, particularly considering the shape of the front seven. The secondary, even with Josiah Scott’s early departure looks solid, even more so if the rumors of WR/CB Julian Barnett, the jewel of the Spartans’ 2019 class, sticking on defense are true. While “No Fly Zone” is premature, Barnett and fellow sophomore Kalon Gervin would be the highest upside cornerback pair of the Dantonio/Tucker era. But the front seven, aside from Simmons, has a ton of questions Naquan Jones goes from part of a great three man interior line rotation to the only known commodity. And the Spartans could be starting two walk ons at linebacker. Throw in the consensus toughest schedule in the country, and just getting bowl eligible seems like too tall of a task for this group.

#48 is WAY to high for MSU this year. I'd probably have 'em down in the 70s or 80s, and only better than Rutgers, Maryland, and maybe Illinois in their own conference. The Spartans enter the season with as little going for them as I can remember, since before Dantonio took over. Save the RB unit, what else looks better? The loss of Lewerke, who'd long overstayed his welcome, is probably addition by subtraction. Half the secondary is gone. Almost the entire front seven is gone, which'll linger through the whole season. I'm not sure what a new, not entirely experienced coaching staff can make of this season. Agree with your last line regarding bowl eligibility.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 26, 2020, 02:48:26 PM

SP+ has them projected #45, FPI has them #58.

And if I had known there's be no spring ball, I'd have probably have out them in the 55-60 range.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Kris60 on April 26, 2020, 05:59:32 PM

Quote from: ELA on April 24, 2020, 09:39:52 PM

#51 West Virginia Mountaineers
#7 in Big XII
We continue our run on Big XII teams, but leave the state of Texas. I thought West Virginia’s drop last year would be more muted than most, but I don’t think I fully appreciated just how bare the cupboard was left by Holgorson. I still think Neal Brown was a really good hire, but while the offense figures to rebound from last year, he’s got his work cut out for him defensively. The Stills brothers from nearby Fairmont, West Virginia are rock solid on the line, and allow a lot of freedom behind them, but the Mountaineers lost nearly all the depth along the line, and 5 of the 8 starters behind them have moved on. Gaining some stability on the back end is needed after a pair of very talented players let the program down. Kenny Robinson Jr. was expelled for an academic violation, and spent last season playing in the XFL, before entering the 2020 NFL Draft. Then Kwantel Raines, who was one of the highest rated safety recruits in the nation was unable to find the field, and wound up transferring to Temple. Defensive coordinator Vic Koenning, 60 years old, with 17 season of coordinating experience, showed that off in maximizing what talent he had there, trying to create havoc, and largely succeeding. They were top 30 in the nation in havoc rate; the problem is they racked up negative plays, but not turnovers, ranking bottom 25 nationally in turnovers created rate. When the offense is as bad as the Mountaineers’ was last year, you need to create some turnovers, and probably score off some yourself. Because where I really undersold West Virginia’s dropoff though was on the offensive side of the ball, where I figured there was at least some talent left behind. It appears I was wrong. The offensive production plummeted from #9 in SP+ in 2018, to #100 last year. They return their starting quarterback, leading rusher, and six of their seven top receivers. Is it really as simple as experience though? The offensive line never recovered from the injury, and eventual transfer of Josh Sills, and now has to replace both starting tackles. It was the middle of the line that really struggled to open running lanes, as the Mountaineers sputtered to just 2.6 ypc, worst in the Big XII by over a yard and a half per carry, second worst in the entire FBS, ahead of only Akron. So I’m not sure what sort of progression can necessarily be expected there. In Sam Jones at wide receiver, they do have an absolute star in the making though. He finished third in the Big XII with 69 receptions, as only a freshman. Now, he just needs to figure out how to do more with it after the reception. His 9.8 ypc was easily the least of any player in the conference with at least 19 receptions, with 11.5 being the next lowest, and his 2 receiving touchdowns put him only third on his own team, a team that had the third fewest touchdown passes in the Big XII. While there is some growing buzz to turn from Oklahoma transfer Austin Kendall as starting quarterback, to Bowling Green transfer Jarrett Doege, I’m not ready to buy in yet. Kendall had injury problems, but was never replaced for performance. Yes, Doege had better numbers in his three game stint at the end, but Kendall was in and out all year, and gave the staff plenty of chance to replace him, and they never did.

KEY PLAYERS
QB Austin Kendall, Senior
RB Leddie Brown, Junior
WR Sam James, Sophomore
.
DE Dante Stills, Junior
DT Darius Stills, Senior
LB Josh Chandler, Junior

The plan for Doege all along was to redshirt last year to allow him two years to play in ‘20 and ‘21. That’s why he didn’t play until the end of the last four games of the season. When he played he looked better than Kendall and in his 3 starts WVU went 2-1, beating both K St and TCU as road underdogs and taking Ok St to the limit before finally losing.

The general feeling among the fanbase is the job is Doege’s to lose and I think there is a little more optimism because of that. WVU just had one of those seasons where everything that could go wrong did. There were injuries everywhere. Besides the Robinson situation with academics the leading returning WR from 2018 left because of the same thing. The starting Center from 2018 transferred down to Youngstown St to be close to his girlfriend. His backup retired because of injuries. It was a perfect storm of bad luck.

I honestly don’t think the cupboard was as bare as some think it was but some things happened with transfers and injuries after Dana left that wasn’t anyone’s fault. As a result, WVU had to play a ton of guys who just weren’t ready. I realized how bad it was when I saw a 5’8 in-state walk on trying to cover Cee Dee Lamb in the OU game.

There will still be growing pains this year but I expect WVU to be better.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on April 26, 2020, 08:46:39 PM

Quote from: Kris60 on April 26, 2020, 05:59:32 PM

The plan for Doege all along was to redshirt last year to allow him two years to play in ‘20 and ‘21. That’s why he didn’t play until the end of the last four games of the season. When he played he looked better than Kendall and in his 3 starts WVU went 2-1, beating both K St and TCU as road underdogs and taking Ok St to the limit before finally losing.

The general feeling among the fanbase is the job is Doege’s to lose and I think there is a little more optimism because of that. WVU just had one of those seasons where everything that could go wrong did. There were injuries everywhere. Besides the Robinson situation with academics the leading returning WR from 2018 left because of the same thing. The starting Center from 2018 transferred down to Youngstown St to be close to his girlfriend. His backup retired because of injuries. It was a perfect storm of bad luck.

I honestly don’t think the cupboard was as bare as some think it was but some things happened with transfers and injuries after Dana left that wasn’t anyone’s fault. As a result, WVU had to play a ton of guys who just weren’t ready. I realized how bad it was when I saw a 5’8 in-state walk on trying to cover Cee Dee Lamb in the OU game.

There will still be growing pains this year but I expect WVU to be better.

I think they'll improve, but man that schedule, not ideal.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 27, 2020, 01:08:08 PM

#47 Arizona State Sun Devils

#7 in Pac 12

Herm Edwards inherited a good deal of skill position talent, from N’Keal Harry and Brandon Aiyuk, to Eno Benjamin. Maximizing that talent has been the issue, with inconsistent and young quarterback play, and subpar offensive line play. Now the skill positions are the question mark, with Eno Benjamin leaving early for the NFL. Benjamin got nearly all of the running back carries, with the next highest usage back being A.J. Carter, who got 19 carries and averaged just 2.6 ypc on those touches. With the transfer of Isaiah Floyd, the only other back on the roster with college carries is Demetrious Flowers, who averaged 2.8 ypc on 11 attempts. The Sun Devils added a pair of 4* running backs in the 2020 class, both of whom were top 250 recruits, both of whom enrolled early. They compliment each other, with the small, quick Daniyel Ngata, who is also a threat on special teams and in the passing game, and DeaMonte Trayanum a bigger, more traditional back from Ohio, who spurned offers from midwest powers such as Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Notre Dame, to head cross country to the desert. The receiver room has more proven commodities...by one, in Frank Darby, who had 31 receptions for 616 yards, the only player among the Sun Devils’ five leading receivers to return. Like running back, the Arizona State 2020 class was heavy on top end receivers, with half of their eight 4* prospects being receivers, including Johnny Wilson, the highest rated member of the class. The offensive line was an issue, and remains one, aside from breakout freshman interior lineman Dohnovan West, who excelled at guard last year, but looks to slide over to center to replace Cohl Cabral this year. But Arizona State otherwise loses 4 starters from a group that was among the worst pass blocking lines in the FBS last year. If Jayden Daniels takes any sort of sophomore step forward, there is enough raw talent, that this offense could be a lot of fun. Arizona State has struggled with offensive coordinator consistency, with Zak Hill now being the fifth coach to man the position in the last six years. Daniels is too special of a player for the Sun Devils to finish in the bottom third of the offense in scoring, as they did a season ago. Daniels struggled a little with his accuracy, but his misses weren’t misreads, or to the wrong team, they were simply incomplete. His interception rate of 2 in just 338 attempts was best in the Pac 12, and it’s not as though he was just taking the easy stuff. He led the conference in yards per completion. Anyone who thought he was an athlete who needed time to learn how to play quarterback was dead wrong, he’s special. With Danny Gonzales taking the New Mexico head coaching job, Herm brought in a friend from his NFL days, former Bengals coach Marvin Lewis (who served as an analyst for the team last year). The 3-3-5 Gonzales, a Rocky Long disciple, taught, isn’t for most, so it will be interesting to see what changes Marvin makes. Job one needs to be to get more out of his linebackers. Darien Butler and Merlin Robertson were reliable, but they have the talent to be more, and they simply weren’t disruptful enough in Gonzales’ scheme. They were first and third on the team in tackles, but combined for just 3 sacks, 1 interception and 2 fumble recovery. Special teams are odd. Kicker Brandon Ruiz was on the Groza Watch list last year, got hurt, got replaced, and decided to transfer. Michael Turk was the top punter in the Pac 12, and decided to go pro TWO YEARS early. He was undrafted. I remember my Spartans going 0-3 on field goals against Arizona State, but apparently that was a hex of the Sun Devils. Opponents missed 50% of their field goal attempts, tied with Michigan for third most in the country.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Jayden Daniels, Sophomore
WR	Frank Darby, Senior
C	Dohnovan West, Sophomore
	.
DE	Jermayne Lole, Junior
LB	Darien Butler, Junior
CB	Jack Jones, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 27, 2020, 01:48:43 PM

Quote from: ELA on April 27, 2020, 01:08:08 PM

#47 Arizona State Sun Devils
#7 in Pac 12
Herm Edwards inherited a good deal of skill position talent, from N’Keal Harry and Brandon Aiyuk, to Eno Benjamin. Maximizing that talent has been the issue, with inconsistent and young quarterback play, and subpar offensive line play. Now the skill positions are the question mark, with Eno Benjamin leaving early for the NFL. Benjamin got nearly all of the running back carries, with the next highest usage back being A.J. Carter, who got 19 carries and averaged just 2.6 ypc on those touches. With the transfer of Isaiah Floyd, the only other back on the roster with college carries is Demetrious Flowers, who averaged 2.8 ypc on 11 attempts. The Sun Devils added a pair of 4* running backs in the 2020 class, both of whom were top 250 recruits, both of whom enrolled early. They compliment each other, with the small, quick Daniyel Ngata, who is also a threat on special teams and in the passing game, and DeaMonte Trayanum a bigger, more traditional back from Ohio, who spurned offers from midwest powers such as Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Notre Dame, to head cross country to the desert. The receiver room has more proven commodities...by one, in Frank Darby, who had 31 receptions for 616 yards, the only player among the Sun Devils’ five leading receivers to return. Like running back, the Arizona State 2020 class was heavy on top end receivers, with half of their eight 4* prospects being receivers, including Johnny Wilson, the highest rated member of the class. The offensive line was an issue, and remains one, aside from breakout freshman interior lineman Dohnovan West, who excelled at guard last year, but looks to slide over to center to replace Cohl Cabral this year.

With the Pac 12 South so shallow this year, the Sun Devils have a shot to win the division, which will be a huge achievement for Herm Year Three. The biggest determining factor will be Jayden Daniels, who, IMO, is the real deal. We're talking NFL Franchise QB potential. With stability and upside at QB, I'm expecting the good recruiting of the last three years to round into a finally balanced roster. Along with the issue of "maximizing that talent" a big part of ASU's setbacks the last five years has been the major holes on the roster. For a while the secondary was a disaster. Once that was sorted out it was the OL bringing down the whole team. Getting to a point where the roster is balanced with depth at each unit has been a long, multi-seasonal, uphill battle. But things are looking up in Tempe.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 28, 2020, 11:11:39 AM

#46 Pittsburgh Panthers

#8 in ACC

One of the more staggering collapses in 2019 was that of the Pitt running game. They were behind only Clemson in 2018, averaging 5.6 ypc, including their amazing performance against Virginia Tech where they averaged 13.7 ypc on 36 carries. In 2019, they had the worst run game in the ACC, averaging just 3.6 ypc. Pat Narduzzi has churned through offensive coordinators during his head coaching tenure, but one consistent is that when the Panthers can’t run the ball, the offense simply doesn’t work. Pitt passed for the 38th most yards per game in the nation. That might not sound like anything special, but it was their highest national ranking since 2006, and in that 13 year span only even ranked in the top 60 one other time. And yet their overall offensive SP+ efficiency fell nearly 40 spots to #109, wasting what was arguably Narduzzi’s best defense in Pittsburgh. Pitt and San Diego State were the only schools to rank in the top half of the FBS in overall SP+, with an offensive rating outside of the top 100. In the continuing pendulum of Pitt football, it appears the strength is going to swing back to the offense. That starts up front, with an offensive line returning a pair of All-ACC players and should rebound from what was a down performance across the board last year. Hopefully going young last year, pays off in 2020, with right tackle Nolan Ulizio being the only departure. It won’t matter if they can’t find a running back. The line didn’t do them any favors, but it’s not like any of them had any standout moments when given the opportunity. Only 4 teams in the nation had fewer carries for 20 yards or more than the Panthers had last year. Freshman Vincent Smith got the most carries in the Quick Lane Bowl, maybe that was the staff realizing he should be the guy. He averaged over a yard more than A.J. Davis, who had been the featured back. The unpromised potential of Kenny Pickett has held this offense back. In 2018 they were an elite running team, and just needed a little passing, it appeared when he was inserted late in the year that he would provide that spark. Then last year, they passed the ball more, he put up bigger numbers, but still failed to stretch the field, something that perhaps could have offered the run game some relief. His 469 pass attempts were 10th most in the nation, and his completion percentage was a respectable 51st best, but he had the 6th lowest yards per attempt, because he never went down the field. Narduzzi likes his defense built off a strong secondary, but he’ll make do with having this line. They had the 3rd highest line created sack rate in the FBS, and bring back 7 of the 8 guys from the two deep this year. The scary thing is that the two deep this year consists of one senior, one junior, and six freshman/sophomores, so it looks like it’s going to be an outstanding group for a few more years to come. That will be needed, because Paris Ford is the only player of note returning from the entire back seven. The might not mimic last year’s numbers, where they allowed the second fewest yards per attempt and completion percentage. But with that front, they may improve upon forcing the 8th most drives of zero or negative yards nationally.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Kenny Pickett, Senior
C	Jimmy Morrisey, Senior
G	Bryce Hargrove, Senior
	.
DE	Patrick Jones II, Senior
DT	Jalen Twyman, Junior
S	Paris Ford, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 28, 2020, 05:43:53 PM

Quote from: ELA on April 28, 2020, 11:11:39 AM

#46 Pittsburgh Panthers
#8 in ACC

Narduzzi burned a lot of goodwill toward the end of the season by squandering a top 25 ranking by finishing 0-2 after a 7-3 start. It's not so much that they lost to a surging Virginia Tech squad in Blacksburg. Pittsburgh was blown out and followed that up with a lifeless loss to sub-mediocre Boston College. Given the schedule, the average recruiting, and the generally waning fan support, I'm wondering if the window for Narduzzi to have a breakout season is closed. A 9-4 and certainly 10-3 finish would've gone a long way to show the improvement that's eluded the Narduzzi tenure. And it's worth wondering if it also cost him a call from Michigan State?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 28, 2020, 06:24:21 PM

That felt like warm at best both ways. MSU money wasn't really there for him, and his only connection to the school was his time working under the guy who just unceremoniously left.

Pitts athletic department has really improved in non revenue sports, namely volleyball and wrestling. But football/basketball apathy is strong. It has passed negative talk radio discussion and entered non-discussion.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 29, 2020, 01:05:40 PM

#45 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns

#2 in Sun Belt

How Billy Napier is still in Lafayette for Year 3 is beyond me. He seems like an absolute home run hire for a number of SEC or ACC schools. He’s the son of a coach, born and raised in Georgia, played at Furman, where he quarterbacked the team to the FCS Championship Game in 2001, spent 14 of 16 years coaching split between two different stops each at Clemson and Alabama, spent a year as offensive coordinator at Arizona State, and then took the Louisiana job, where he’s reach the conference title game in each of his first two seasons. He has raised the talent to the point that the team had three players selected in the NFL Draft, and I still have them as one of the better Group of Five teams. That level of talent seems to only be rising under Napier, with back to back classes ranked #1 in the Sun Belt. Napier’s offense looks like it would work at any level, with the Cajuns averaging 6.3 ypc on the ground, third best nationally, with three different 800 yards rushers, two of whom did it on over 7 ypc. Hell, their #4 back averaged over 10 yards per carry on 32 carries. While Raymond Calais, who was the most dynamic of the four 800 yard backs, is gone, Elijah Mitchell, the workhorse, and Trey Ragas, are back. As is said #4 back, Chris Smith, who looks plenty capable of joining that group this year. Quarterback Levi Lewis was extremely efficient, allowing the run game to do his thing. He completed over 64% of his passes, was 2nd in the Sun Belt in passing efficiency, and threw just 4 interceptions (5th lowest interception rate in the nation). He’s no game manager though, still throwing for 26 touchdowns and over 3,000 yards. While Louisiana had a deep group of receivers last year, you can’t just ignore the fact that Ja’Marcus Bradley, who was easily the best, and starting tight end Nick Ralston, are both graduated. The bigger issue though might be the offensive line. That line ranked top 5 nationally in five of Football Outsiders 9 metrics, and top 20 in all but one, including #2 in overall line yards, behind only Clemson. The good news is that three starters are back. The bad news is that the two who graduated just got picked in the 2nd and 4th round, respectively, of the NFL Draft. As much backfield talent as this team has, can they absorb the loss of two guys of that caliber along the line? For as much attention, and as much fun to watch as the offense is, the defense is way too overlooked. They led the conference in scoring defense, and were second in ypp allowed, thanks to an elite secondary. While they did lose 5 starters, that’s a little misleading, as they return 16 of 22 from their two deep, all but one of whom had 10 or more tackles, so the gap between “starter” and reserve is a little manufactured. They do return four all-conference defenders. The other problem is that Appalachian State is still waiting at the end of the game, the ultimate (Sun Belt) final boss. Louisiana finished last year ranked #32 in SP+. That’s the third highest rank for a Sun Belt team in the history of SP+. #1 and #2? Appalachian State in 2018 and 2019. In their last 17 conference games, Louisiana is 0-4 against the Mountaineers, and 12-1 against everyone else. That block is what keeps me from putting the Cajuns higher, but they seem poised to break through.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Levi Lewis, Senior
RB	Elijah Mitchell, Senior
RB	Trey Ragas, Senior
	.
DT	Zi'Yon Hill, Junior
LB	Joe Dillon, Senior
LB	Chauncey Manac, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: fezzador on April 29, 2020, 02:23:11 PM

Definitely not your big brother's Sun Belt. I remember when the best SBC teams were barely Top 80 material, now there's 2 in the Top 50.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 29, 2020, 03:02:17 PM

Quote from: CatsbyAZ on April 28, 2020, 05:43:53 PM

Narduzzi burned a lot of goodwill toward the end of the season by squandering a top 25 ranking by finishing 0-2 after a 7-3 start. It's not so much that they lost to a surging Virginia Tech squad in Blacksburg. Pittsburgh was blown out and followed that up with a lifeless loss to sub-mediocre Boston College. Given the schedule, the average recruiting, and the generally waning fan support, I'm wondering if the window for Narduzzi to have a breakout season is closed. A 9-4 and certainly 10-3 finish would've gone a long way to show the improvement that's eluded the Narduzzi tenure. And it's worth wondering if it also cost him a call from Michigan State?

Pitt is in a terrible situation. Their stadium is off campus doesn't come close to selling out on a typical game. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Notre Dame plunder their backyard, and they aren't "helmet" enough to get recruits from around the country. All things considered, I think Narduzzi is doing a pretty decent job there.

And I can't believe Kenny Pickett is still there...

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 29, 2020, 09:31:09 PM

Quote from: ELA on April 29, 2020, 01:05:40 PM

#45 Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
#2 in Sun Belt
How Billy Napier is still in Lafayette for Year 3 is beyond me. He seems like an absolute home run hire for a number of SEC or ACC schools. He’s the son of a coach, born and raised in Georgia, played at Furman, where he quarterbacked the team to the FCS Championship Game in 2001, spent 14 of 16 years coaching split between two different stops each at Clemson and Alabama, spent a year as offensive coordinator at Arizona State, and then took the Louisiana job, where he’s reach the conference title game in each of his first two seasons. He has raised the talent to the point that the team had three players selected in the NFL Draft, and I still have them as one of the better Group of Five teams.

My thoughts too. Would've made a more responsible hire at Ole Miss and Miss St when they were looking for coaches a few months ago. Alas, Napier wasn't the splashier, headline grabbing name that Kiffin and Leach are.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on April 30, 2020, 08:08:54 AM

The Miss schools may need splashy more than effective.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on April 30, 2020, 09:02:54 AM

#44 Washington State Cougars

#6 in Pac 12

The Mike Leach-Washington State divorce, which seemed years in the making, finally took place after last offseason. His time in Pullman can’t be viewed as anything other than a rousing success. He leaves as the second winningest coach in program history, the best winning percentage of any post-World War II coach. They went to bowls in 6 of the past 7 years, after going a decade without a postseason, including a top 10 finish in 2018. But the same things that make college football fans love him, eventually drives administrators nuts. Once the Tennessee deal fell through, it really seemed like a matter of time. And I’m guessing some inside the Bohler Athletic Complex were quite happy it wasn’t them dealing with racially deaf Tweets sent out by Mike Leach before even coaching a game at Mississippi State. The question is just how far from Leach they strayed in hiring 41 year old Nick Rolovich from Hawaii. Off the field, Rolovich has his own quirks. He stood out for bringing a cast of characters with him to conference media days, including celebrity impersonators, such as Britney Spears and Elvis; and a tarot card reader. More relevantly, Rolovich is also an offensive minded coach, although after playing for and coaching under June Jones, he is from the Run and Shoot coaching tree, rather than the Air Raid. The differences are slight, aside from the way in which the quarterback makes his reads, and the fact that the run and shoot relies more on crossing routes. But aside from that minutiae, there isn’t a huge difference. Washington State and Hawaii ranked #1 and #2 last year in non-RPO pass plays. That said, Rolovich has been quicker to adopt RPO concepts, so Hawaii did run the ball quite a bit more, granted almost exclusively on those RPO plays, that Washington State didn’t run. The beneficiary there is Max Borghi, who was criminally underused in Leach’s offense. Boghi finished second among qualified running backs in the Pac 12, with 6.4 ypc, but finished 11th in carries, at under 10 per game. He did catch 86 passes, but he should blow past 1,000 yards on the ground this year, if he stays healthy. The problem is who on the roster can actually play quarterback. All three players who attempted a pass last season graduated, so its four completely inexperienced returnees, JUCO walk on transfer Will Heckman (a converted linebacker), and incoming freshman Jayden de Laura. de Laura was a highly recruited kid from Hawaii, who Rolovich actually recruited while at Hawaii, and got offers from Ohio State and USC. It’s weird to say a kid who isn’t even on campus yet is the prohibitive favorite to win the job at a Power Five school, but how many Power 5 schools are bringing in walk on JUCO, former linebackers in February to compete for the quarterback slot? That brief success that Mike Leach had on defense, left when Alex Grinch left for Ohio State, fielding the #95 SP+ defense last year, squandering the #6 offense and #4 special teams. They do rank in the top 25 in returning production, but let’s be honest, it’s not like anyone to come out of Hawaii ever cared about defense. As bad as that side of the ball was in Pullman last year, it was even worse in Honolulu. Jahad Woods at linebacker is the only player on the Cougar defense worth worrying about.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Max Borghi, Junior
T	Abraham Lucas, Junior
K	Blake Mazza, Junior
	.
DT	Will Rodgers III, Senior
LB	Jahad Woods, Senior
S	Skyler Thomas, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on April 30, 2020, 09:14:30 AM

ELA wrote:"The Mike Leach-Washington State divorce, which seemed years in the making, finally took place after last offseason."
Was there bad blood?I just viewed Wazzou as a stepping stone position.I wrote on the old board that I was hoping he'd land in C-Bus when J.T. was shown the door.Tressel and he were canned around the same time.And of course the Urban situation developed but would have been interesting Plan "B" to have the Pirate on the sidelines.Great write ups BTW

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on April 30, 2020, 02:43:25 PM

Quote from: ELA on April 30, 2020, 09:02:54 AM

#44 Washington State Cougars
#6 in Pac 12
The question is just how far from Leach they strayed in hiring 41 year old Nick Rolovich from Hawaii. Off the field, Rolovich has his own quirks. He stood out for bringing a cast of characters with him to conference media days, including celebrity impersonators, such as Britney Spears and Elvis; and a tarot card reader. More relevantly, Rolovich is also an offensive minded coach, although after playing for and coaching under June Jones, he is from the Run and Shoot coaching tree, rather than the Air Raid. The differences are slight, aside from the way in which the quarterback makes his reads, and the fact that the run and shoot relies more on crossing routes. But aside from that minutiae, there isn’t a huge difference.

Ranking WSU as high as #44 gives to much assumption to whether Rolovich is ready for a bigger job. Though he won at Hawaii, they were sloppy teams, and I'm not sure he's ready for prime time. Despite my negative view, the good news is that the roster, experienced with the pass-first strategy, will be on the same page with what Rolovich wants. I'd drop WSU down into the 60s and going 6-6.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 01, 2020, 09:56:54 AM

Quote from: MrNubbz on April 30, 2020, 09:14:30 AM

ELA wrote:"The Mike Leach-Washington State divorce, which seemed years in the making, finally took place after last offseason."
Was there bad blood?I just viewed Wazzou as a stepping stone position.I wrote on the old board that I was hoping he'd land in C-Bus when J.T. was shown the door.Tressel and he were canned around the same time.And of course the Urban situation developed but would have been interesting Plan "B" to have the Pirate on the sidelines.Great write ups BTW

The AD that hired him who he liked left for Nebraska. He'd been looking around for a while.

Also, man OSU fans would've hated Leach. He's not cut for that sort of job.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 01, 2020, 10:10:04 AM

Quote from: CatsbyAZ on April 29, 2020, 09:31:09 PM

My thoughts too. Would've made a more responsible hire at Ole Miss and Miss St when they were looking for coaches a few months ago. Alas, Napier wasn't the splashier, headline grabbing name that Kiffin and Leach are.

Out of curiosity, what makes Napier more responsible? (I think he turned down Miss State and at least had Ole Miss interest)

He's been an HC two years, taking over for a mostly successful head coach and pushing the bar up a bit higher. He's been an OC twice. Once his departure opened the door for a hire that launched a dynasty. The other time was a one-year stint, where the offense ranked 35th in SP+, and then his HC got fired, though they tired to keep him.

In terms of raw football, both Kiffin and Leach have proven far more. I guess you could say it's more responsible because he has less record as a crazy person person. But for maybe less chance of an off-field implosion, he's probably got a notably larger chance of an on-field implosion.

(The other issue for each program is that where they want to be is so far over where their natural state is. So it would take work to get either to Dan Mullen level, and neither would be happy there. Maybe Hugh Freeze on-field peak would suffice, maybe not)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 01, 2020, 10:18:15 AM

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 29, 2020, 03:02:17 PM

Pitt is in a terrible situation. Their stadium is off campus doesn't come close to selling out on a typical game. Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and Notre Dame plunder their backyard, and they aren't "helmet" enough to get recruits from around the country. All things considered, I think Narduzzi is doing a pretty decent job there.

And I can't believe Kenny Pickett is still there...

I'd thought Pitt was worse than that last year.

The weird thing about Pitt is the job isn't easy, but it's always just mostly OK. Since 1997, every coach has won between half and 57.5 percent of their games. Before that they had the bad second Majors run, Mike Gottfried who peaked at 8-4. Fazio went 9-3 and 8-4 to top his four years. So you have to go back to Sherrill and Majors for when that job was really good.

They've not been worst than 5-7 since 1998, but in that run have been better than 8-4 only three times (two 9-4s and a 10-3, twice in the hollowed out Big East).

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 01, 2020, 05:11:52 PM

#43 Temple Owls

#5 in American

I don’t think any Temple fans want to go to the old days, granted the new days, of the NFL and Power 5 schools poaching your coaches and your talent can’t be fun either. Rod Carey enters his second year at the school (which in some ways makes him a grizzled vet), and was primed for a big 2020, until the NFL and the Power Five came calling. Matt Hennessy and Harrison Hand both left early for the NFL Draft, going in the 3rd and 5th round respectively. Then, more harmful, defensive end Quincy Roche, the 2019 AAC Defensive Player of the Year, took a grad transfer to Miami, thus removing the best players from each line a year before it was anticipated. If the offensive line can absorb the blow of Hennessy’s departure, it should rebound from a very disappointing 2019. Anthony Russo returns under center for his fifth season on campus, and should ease into the #2 slot in the all-time passing marks at Temple. Accuracy continues to be an issue, and I think at this point it’s time to just live with it. You like to think a third year starter could get at least above 60%, and maybe not lead the conference in interceptions, but I think he is who he is at this point. He certainly has plenty of talent to work with. Temple’s two leading receivers return, including All-Conference Jadan Blue, and they added tight end Darius Pittman from Purdue, who is immediately eligible, along with receiver Nazir Burnett from Georgia Tech, whose appeal is still pending. The running game could be strong if they can figure out the right balance for Re’Mahn Davis, who showed as a true freshman to be a special talent. He led the Owls to wins in 4 of the first 5 games he played in (including over Maryland, Georgia Tech and Memphis), while running for 346 yards on 5.8 ypc through the first four. In the Memphis win he ran 23 times for 72 yards, the week after running 29 times against Georgia Tech. He never seemed to be the same back after that, averaging 4.4 ypc over the balance of the year, averaging just 14 catches per game. The defense was largely very good, allowing just 4.9 ypp, second best in the conference, with the fourth best scoring defense. The issue was when things went bad, they went REALLY bad. They gave up an average of 25.9 ppg, but only twice surrendered between 17 and 38 points. They allowed 17 or fewer points seven times; but then allowed 38 or more points 4 times. The Owls were 8-1 when they allowed under 38 points. Doesn’t seem like that high of a bar to clear. Defensively, while Roche may be impossible to replace, the early returns from spring ball is that cornerback Christian Braswell may be in position to take Hand’s place as the top corner. While Braswell only recorded one interception a year ago, he did lead the team in pass breakups, and in separate interviews, Russo and Carey both said he was the biggest spring standout. As far has guys with a proven track record, the list is pretty short though. The six leading tacklers are all gone, resulting in the Owls having the sixth least returning defensive production in the FBS. Regression is coming, so if the offensive skill players don’t step forward, this pick is going to look ridiculously high.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Anthony Russo, Senior
RB	Re'Mahn Davis, Sophomore
WR	Jadan Blue, Junior
	.
DT	Ifeanyi Maijeh, Junior
LB	Isaiah Graham-Mobley, Senior
S	Amir Tyler, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 01, 2020, 07:22:40 PM

After getting all three of their teams into the ELA top 50, Pennsylvania has endured the dreaded double nipple twister with a knee to the groin.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 01, 2020, 07:47:15 PM

Quote from: bayareabadger on May 01, 2020, 10:10:04 AM

Out of curiosity, what makes Napier more responsible? (I think he turned down Miss State and at least had Ole Miss interest)

He's been an HC two years, taking over for a mostly successful head coach and pushing the bar up a bit higher. He's been an OC twice. Once his departure opened the door for a hire that launched a dynasty. The other time was a one-year stint, where the offense ranked 35th in SP+, and then his HC got fired, though they tired to keep him.

In terms of raw football, both Kiffin and Leach have proven far more. I guess you could say it's more responsible because he has less record as a crazy person person. But for maybe less chance of an off-field implosion, he's probably got a notably larger chance of an on-field implosion.

I guess what I mean by Napier being the more "responsible" hire, is that MSU would've gotten the potential with a lot less risk than usual; IMO, Napier's best days of coaching are ahead of him. Hiring Napier is closer to MSU hiring Mullen back in 2009 than hiring Leach, whose best days of coaching are likely behind him. But the same argument could be made of Joe Moorhead before he abruptly didn't work out. Difference here is that Moorhead was a total outsider. In the case of Napier, MSU/Ole Miss would've hired someone who couldn't be more familiar with SEC territory.

That said, I didn't know Napier already (privately?) turned down MSU.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 01, 2020, 09:01:52 PM

Quote from: CatsbyAZ on May 01, 2020, 07:47:15 PM

I guess what I mean by Napier being the more "responsible" hire, is that MSU would've gotten the potential with a lot less risk than usual; IMO, Napier's best days of coaching are ahead of him. Hiring Napier is closer to MSU hiring Mullen back in 2009 than hiring Leach, whose best days of coaching are likely behind him. But the same argument could be made of Joe Moorhead before he abruptly didn't work out. Difference here is that Moorhead was a total outsider. In the case of Napier, MSU/Ole Miss would've hired someone who couldn't be more familiar with SEC territory.

That said, I didn't know Napier already (privately?) turned down MSU.

I think there are some good reasons not to hire Leach, not the least of which is they're betting that going to a historical underdog for the most part with a coach who gets underdogs better than they should be is gonna get them into contender status.

But the thing is, most young coaches seem to have their best coaching days ahead of them, right up until they don't. Sometimes your guy who only coached two years is Urban, others is Darrell Hazel. I think Leach has a lower ceiling and a higher floor. The downside is that's not what MSU wants, but if you wanted to create a solid stable program, he probably has a better on-field chance, if only because he's done it twice in harsh conditions.

And I found the quote from Napier. He was asked and said “I think it’s fair to say that we’ve made a decision that we are not a candidate for that job.” And that was before the went ofter Grantham and Judge in a search that was sort of a mess.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 08:45:15 AM

Miss State needs fan excitement. Hiring a name coach generates some of that, at least initially. They have some fans who show up when their team is decent enough to throw a scare into LSU and Bama and beat Ole Miss.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 02, 2020, 10:30:49 AM

#42 Wake Forest Demon Deacons

#7 in ACC

For every benched starter who immediately looks to the transfer portal, I don’t blame you, but I do enjoy seeing a Sam Hartman. Sam Hartman earned the starting quarterback job as a freshman in 2018, before losing his job to Jamie Newman, due to a season ending injury. Newman took the Deacon offense to the next level last year, perfectly adapted to Wake Forest’s frenetic pace with his arm (4th in the ACC in yards per attempt) and legs (2nd among quarterbacks in rushing yards, while leading the team in rushing touchdowns). He got Wake Forest off to a 5-0 start, and they spent three weeks ranked, their first time in the AP Poll in 11 years. It ended with losses in 4 of 5 games, but the promise of greater thing to come. Except Newman elected instead to transfer to Georgia, allowing Hartman to retake the job. Hartman did get some action last year, including one start, but played in only four games, to preserve his redshirt. The running game might be a problem, with the graduation of three All-ACC linemen, although the graduation of starting running back Cade Carney, who was a shell of his junior form, when he had a 1,000 yard campaign. He saw his ypc drop by a staggering 1.4, but the coaching staff continued to force feed him the ball, rather than true freshman Kenneth Walker III, who was the far more effective ball carrier, but saw a 158 to 98 carry deficit. Walker finished 18th in the ACC with 579 yards, but his 5.9 ypc were second among those backs, behind only Travis Etienne. He was the only player to finish in the top 25 of the ACC in rushing with under 100 carries. They’ll have little choice but to let him break out this year. Few teams have a pair of 1,000 yard receivers, so Deacon fans can’t be too upset that they have only one. And of the two, Sage Surratt was the more important. It’s no coincidence that Wake’s season ending slide coincided with Surratt’s injury. Wake went 7-1 in games where he was healthy, while Newman’s three worst games came without him. Defensively, the pass defense has to be a major concern. The Demon Deacons allowed the third most yards per attempt in the ACC, the third highest opponent completion percentage, and the third most passing touchdowns, allowing a largely inept Michigan State offense to pass for 320 yards in their bowl loss. The only thing that partially salvaged them was 14 interceptions forced, second most in the conference. The problem is that that pair of four year starting cornerbacks, graduated. So for the first time since 2015, Wake Forest will have to figure out something different in penciling in that lineup card. Safety Nasir Green, who suffered an ugly knee injury against Syracuse, will help some, if he’s ready to go. He was missing spring ball either way, and it’s unclear if he will be ready to go in the fall. If he’s still out, the secondary looks downright awful. The pass rush improved from one of the worst in the FBS in 2018, to at least decent last year. They will be heavily relied upon in 2020.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Sage Surratt, Junior
C	Zach Tom, Senior
K	Nick Sciba, Junior
	.
DE	Carlos Basham Jr., Senior
LB	Ryan Smenda Jr., Senior
S	Nasir Greer, Junior

#41 Florida State Seminoles

#6 in ACC

Coming off of their worst three year stretch since 1974-1976, being the entirety of the Darrell Mudra era, and the first year of Bobby Bowden, Florida State needed a reboot. It’s not totally fair to Willie Taggart, Jimbo Fisher was basically mailing it in over the last couple years in terms of recruiting, and roster building, so the talent was nowhere near where it needed to be. But I’m not sure it was a hole he could have dug out of, it had grown so toxic. Things are going to look very different in Tallahassee in 2021, with an entirely new staff, 21 players either coming or going via the transfer portal, and a 25 man recruiting class that ranked #22 nationally. The one thing Taggart deserves credit for is that he inherited a completely broken offense, and it was trending in a positive way. The growth we saw from James Blackman was huge, and while he still struggles with consistency, I don’t think there is a quarterback in the ACC I would take before him, other than Trevor Lawrence and Sam Howell. I know his 4 interception performance in the Sun Bowl loss to Arizona State is fresh in people’s minds, but that matched the 4 interceptions he threw total, in 7 ACC games. The other spot Mike Norvell hopes to benefit from Taggart’s work is the offensive line, which has been the major problem for the Noles offense for the past three years, ranking dead last in line yards in 2018, and improving all the way to #115 last year, while ranking in the bottom 20 of the FBS in sack rate in all three years. The Seminoles played three true freshmen last year, and if that group can get up to merely competent, it will go a long way. The work Cam Akers did to reach 1,100 yards and 5.0 ypc, behind this line was truly remarkable. The Seminoles averaged just 3.8 ypc as a team, and aside from Akers were at just 2.8. Khalon Laborn got the next most work, with 63 carries, but the coaching staff is hoping the appeal of Texas A&M transfer Jashaun Corbin is approved. He would almost certainly slide into that top spot. The two year tenure of Harlan Barnett, a Mark Dantonio disciple, did not go particularly well, including giving up the most points in school history in 2018. But things aren’t as bad as the raw numbers would suggest. That “historically bad” 2018 defense, was actually #37 in SP+, undermined by the #97 offense and #96 special teams. So just getting competent offense and special teams play should make this defense look a lot better. The move from a 4-3 to a 3-4 last year made little sense, considering linebacker was the weakest position group on the defense, and you turn your best defensive lineman, a 2 technique tackle, Marvin Wilson, into a positionless tweener. Wilson returned for his senior year, and while he led the team with 5 sacks last year, I expect him to blow past that number this year. The secondary has more talent than the numbers last year would suggest, and I think will be pretty good this year, even with the early departure of Stanford Samuels. Asante Samuels Jr. was the better cornerback of the two, and the highest rated recruit in the Noles’ 2021 class was cornerback Demorie Tate, from Orlando, the #34 recruit nationally.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	James Blackmon, Junior
WR	Tamarrion Terry, Junior
T	Brady Scott, Junior
	.
DT	Marvin Wilson, Senior
CB	Asante Samuel Jr., Senior
S	Hamsah Nasirildeen, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 02, 2020, 11:21:56 AM

ELA's Top 40 Hits

33 P5
8 Sec: 4 East/4 West
8 Big Ten: 4 East/4 West
6 Big Xii
5 Acc: 2 Atlantic/3 Coastal
5 Pac 12: 3 North/2 South
1 P5 Independent

7 G5
4 Aac: 2 East/2 West
2 Mountain West: 2 Mountain/0 West
1 Sunbelt: 1 East/0 West

By State:
3 Teams: Texas
2 Teams: Alabama, California, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, N Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Virginia
1 Team: Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Oregon, S Carolina, Utah, Washington and Wisconsin.

Iowa is the only 2+ team state without blemish.
Idaho, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wisconsin are unscathed 1 team states.
So that upper Central Time Zone portion of the mid west is clearly CFB's hot spot, with those four contiguous states that haven't yet lost a single team. How much longer can they hold off the Langoliers?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 12:19:42 PM

I figure a Top 40 team has some slight chance of making the playoff, call it 0.5%, probably as a G5. That chance would increase slightly of course as we get to 30 etc. But we're talking "Contenduhs" now.

Sort of kinda.

I'm surprised 4 SEC E teams remain. Two are obvious.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 02, 2020, 12:22:41 PM

Dave Clawson is excellent.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on May 02, 2020, 12:45:21 PM

Quote from: bayareabadger on May 01, 2020, 09:56:54 AM

The AD that hired him who he liked left for Nebraska. He'd been looking around for a while.

Also, man OSU fans would've hated Leach. He's not cut for that sort of job.

I think you'd be surprised I wasn't the only Buckeye Fan who entertained the idea.Unfortunetly the Pirate's departure from Lubbock was under a cloud of suspicion. As was the Vest's who was just shown the door,so it was really a pipe dream.His Air Raid would be a complete 180 from Tressel Ball,it's always had me curious as hell.I think he could be a nightmare at USC/UCLA or Miami/FSU

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 12:53:22 PM

I think these quirky offenses are best used at minor programs that struggle to gather the talent one has at an Ohio State. Ohio State could run the single wing and win ten games a year, usually.

A place like Georgia Tech benefits from running that weird offense because opponents can't prepare for it adequately and they can upset someone they would never beat "normally".

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 02, 2020, 01:28:41 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 12:53:22 PM

I think these quirky offenses are best used at minor programs that struggle to gather the talent one has at an Ohio State. Ohio State could run the single wing and win ten games a year, usually.

A place like Georgia Tech benefits from running that weird offense because opponents can't prepare for it adequately and they can upset someone they would never beat "normally".

I mean, the single wing is pretty weird. It is funny that if you look back at like mid-1990s OSU-Michigan, those offenses feel plane jane as can be.

I'll be interested in watching Tech run a semi-modern offense. They're embarking on the approach many want for them (recruiter and excitement). I'm highly skeptical.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 02, 2020, 01:35:12 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on May 02, 2020, 12:45:21 PM

I think you'd be surprised I wasn't the only Buckeye Fan who entertained the idea.Unfortunetly the Pirate's departure from Lubbock was under a cloud of suspicion. As was the Vest's who was just shown the door,so it was really a pipe dream.His Air Raid would be a complete 180 from Tressel Ball,it's always had me curious as hell.I think he could be a nightmare at USC/UCLA or Miami/FSU

I think people would've like the scheme and the feel. But results are king, and therein lies the issue.

Leach just has the feel of a Don Nelson type. Like you give him a bunch of scrappers and he'd do weird stuff and do way better than expected, but all his stuff makes scrappers better rather than fully realize top talent. Leach wins games he shouldn't and loses games he shouldn't. Basically, I think he'd have even more Purdue-style losses beyond the two we already saw (plus Iowa).

The situation reminds me of a comparison made in the best hockey book every written. The author, a goaltender, compares bad team and good team goaltenders. A bad team goaltender must be content with 40-plus saves and some goals allowed because he his oft hung out to dry. He must take solace in great saves. A good team goaltender might make 15-20 saves. But he must be always on point. If he lets up three goals, a solid day of work for a bad team goaltender, it's like he was barely there at all.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 05:50:50 PM

I figured Air Force would not even get one line of analysis.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 03, 2020, 05:53:00 PM

#40 Air Force Falcons

#2 in Mountain West

Because Air Force was essentially eliminated from the Mountain West title race by Week 3, with their loss at Boise State, it was largely ignored that they were playing as well as any Group of Five school over the final two months of the year. The Falcons closed the season on an eight game winning streak, winning by an average of 18 ppg, with only one win being by single digits, including a 30 point win over Hawaii, 24 point win over Utah State, 14 point win over Wyoming, and a season ending 10 point bowl win over Washington State. Air Force has a similar opportunity this year to either put themselves on the map or fall out early, hosting Boise State in Week 2, followed by a trip to Purdue. Donald Hamond III returns at quarterback, with a chance to be the best passing quarterback Air Force has ever had. He’s never going to be asked to put the ball in the air constantly, or hit consistently, but he has to hit his big plays when he gets the chance. That’s what he does. His 50.5% completion rate is clearly lacking, but he still manages to complete over 10 yards per attempt, best in school history, with the highest passer rating in school history, thanks to a 23.3 ypc rate, best in the nation. His most important skill though, considering the system, might be his durability, missing no time last year. That will be particularly important in 2020 with zero depth behind him. Chance Stevenson, who played quarterback in high school, but has been a running back in college has been moved back, and looks to be the #2 option in the fall. The passing game shouldn’t skip a beat, even with the graduation of Geraud Sanders and Ben Waters, assuming David Cormier and Brandon Lewis are fully reinstated. It was supposed to be a four man group last year, until code violations to Cormier and Lewis allowed Sanders and Waters to break out for 52 receptions, 1,404 yards (27 ypc) and all 14 receiving touchdowns. If it is to be believed that Cormier and Lewis were right with with them at this time last year, the passing game should pick up right where it left off, with a more experienced Hammond. Teaching the cut blocking schemes to four new offensive linemen is why I’m not completely sold on Air Force being able to replicate their 2019 run. There is tons of returning talent up front, but the nose tackle in the middle that made the 3-4 defense run, isn’t. Jordan Jackson’s decision to forego the NFL Draft and return for his senior year helps some, but his job is going to be a lot tougher without Mosese Fifita, the best interior lineman in the conference, lined up next to him. They also have to find a way to replace both the kicker and the punter from what was the #18 SP+ special teams unit in the nation. This all sounds fairly rosy, but all in all Air Force does lose the 3rd most production nationally, but assuming the receivers step up, I think that is a bit misleading, as it always is for the service academies.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Kadin Remsberg, Senior
FB	Timothy Jackson, Junior
T	Nolan Laufenberg, Senior
	.
DE	Jordan Jackson, Senior
LB	Demonte Meeks, Senior
CB	Milton Bugg III, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 03, 2020, 07:40:04 PM

That obliterates Colorado.

The Mountain Time Zone has been whittled down to just two teams. Excluding Hawaii, they are in serious contention to be the first time zone to be entirely eliminated. Which makes sense, seeing as they have the fewest overall number of teams (13), the fewest number of P5 teams (4), no helmet teams, and one of their two-team states was eliminated right off the bat, along with their lone Texas team.

That said, they still might beat out the Pacific time zone, who only has four teams remaining, all P5, only one of which probably has a punchers chance of beating out both of the remaining MTZ teams.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: fezzador on May 04, 2020, 11:35:00 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 02, 2020, 08:45:15 AM

Miss State needs fan excitement. Hiring a name coach generates some of that, at least initially. They have some fans who show up when their team is decent enough to throw a scare into LSU and Bama and beat Ole Miss.

Leach is certainly an interesting hire. His system rarely translated into championships (best he did was get a split divisional championship in 08), but he's usually good for knocking off at least one big name a season. It's tough to win in Starkville, but you can guarantee a fun product on the field if nothing else.

That said, one school he could really do some damage at is Georgia Tech. The ACC is much easier to win in, and it would be such a contrasting style to the triple option that folks would do a double take when watching GT's offense take the field.

And how in the wide, wide world of sports is Billy Napier still at ULL? Is he waiting for Texas to open up?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 04, 2020, 05:10:53 PM

#39 Washington Huskies

#5 in Pac 12

While Chris Peterson can claim burnout, I think he also may not want to deal with the offense that Washington has “coming back” in 2020. Washington returns the fourth least offensive production in the FBS, second in the POwer Five to only LSU, and the Tigers certainly had more production they could afford to lose. The Huskies were 9th in the Pac 12 in total offense last year, and looks to replace their top quarterback, running back, receiver and tight end, along with 4/5 of the offensive line. Figuring out what is essentially a completely new offense falls to new offensive coordinator John Donovan. Donovan spent basically his entire career tied to James Franklin. Donovan was a grad assistant under Ralph Friedgen at Georgia Tech for three years, before following him to Maryland. He was then at College Park for a decade, as a position coach, while Franklin was offensive coordinator; before being hired by Franklin as his offensive coordinator, first at Vanderbilt, then at Penn State, until his firing following the 2015 season. It’s funny now to look back on a lot of the takes at the time, that Franklin was too involved in the offense, and had simply scapegoated Donovan to save himself. Until Joe Moorehead fixed the offense, and suddenly Donovan was the problem, and ruined Christian Hackenburg. This is Donovan’s first college job since then, spending four years as an offensive analyst with the NFL’s Jaguars. The questions start, although don’t end, at quarterback, after Jacob Eason left early for the NFL. New head coach Jimmy Lake made no secret of his pursuit of Stanford grad transfer K.J. Costello, who he didn’t land. That leaves Washington with a quarterback room with a combined 2 pass attempts, for a combined -5 yards. The last time Washington had that little returning quarterback experience was 2004. Casey Paus led three quarterbacks (including Isaiah Stanback and Carl Bonnell) who completed just 40% of their passes, with 8 touchdowns and 24 interceptions, averaging just 14.0 ppg, worst in the FBS; while going 1-10, marking their worst season in program history, and their first winless conference campaign in 1973. Help is on the way...eventually. Ethan Garbers, a 4* recruit in 2020 is coming in the fall from Newport Beach, California; and Sam Huard, son of former Washington quarterback Damon Huard, who is currently the #1 rated quarterback in the nation for 2021 is already committed; but he’s a year away, and do you want to throw an 18 year old in this year with an offense surrounded by 8 new starters? Running back Richard Newton could be a breakout star, if he can stay healthy, which has always been a question with him. He had a pair of season ending injuries in high school, missed his entire true freshman season in 2018 after shoulder surgery, and missed three games last year due to injury. The Huskies are this high because their defense should be really, really special. They had the third best defense in the Pac 12 a year ago, and return 8 starters, for what projects to be a top 10 unit nationally per SP+. The secondary could be as good a unit as exists in the country, returning three all-conference players, plus Trent McDuffie, who was runner up for defensive freshman of the year, at cornerback. He was thrown into the fire as a true freshman last year, playing in every game, as a starter from Week 3 on, and more than held his own, as a PFF Freshman All-American.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Richard Newton, Sophomore
WR	Terrell Bynum, Junior
K	Peyton Henry, Junior
	.
DE	Levi Onwuzurike, Senior
LB	Ryan Bowman, Senior
S	Elijah Molden, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 04, 2020, 06:21:38 PM

Late on this, but Troy Calhoun has had such an odd run.

He's won 58.7 percent of his games, which is actually only second in program history. You're talking 13 years, 10 bowls, three 10-win seasons, two more at 9-4. Only once have they been worse than one game away from a bowl (I'm surprised he only had four CoC trophies).

He tried to escape for a while, but never could, and the irony is, although he runs the option because it's an academy, he's not a pure option believer and would probably gladly drop it. He's run some of the quirkier run-heavy offenses you'll find, with a lot of gun stuff, I and even Maryland I. He had at least one interesting aggressive defense, but it appears that was the exception and not the rule. He's even got a little NFL background and he's not that old.

Anyway, he'd be an interesting hire for someone though it will never happen.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 05, 2020, 03:07:02 PM

#38 Navy Midshipmen

#4 in American

I always include the “service academies are impossible to predict” caveat, because they always lean senior-heavy, and their year to year success is seemingly largely based on how a singular class pans out. See last year when I thought Army was an upset of Michigan away from playing in a New Years Six bowl, while Navy, coming off a 3-10 season (the program’s worst since 2002), while returning the fifth least production in the entire FBS, was destined for another long year. Instead, Army went 5-8, with just 3 FBS wins (Rice, UTSA, Massachusetts), while Navy went 11-2, beat Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl, and finished ranked #20, their second highest finish since 1963. So, I’m back to being bullish on the Midshipmen this year, but who knows. What I do know is that the Navy defense returns 8 starters, as indirectly mentioned, almost unheard of for the service academies. They will take a bit of a hit if LB/S hybrid Jake Springer, an honorable mention all-conference performer last year, doesn’t return. He put his name in the transfer portal in mid-March, but hasn’t yet landed anywhere. If he returns, to pair with Diego Fagot, Navy has the top linebacker duo in the American. Fagot, on his own is a difference maker, one of just three underclassmen to earn first all-conference defensive honors a year ago, and the only non-senior linebacker to do so. It’s not hyperbole to say he is on pace to become the best defensive player to play at the academy since Ron Beagle and Bob Reifsnyder in the 50s, both of whom are in the College Football Hall of Fame. In the 60 years since Reifsnyder graduated, Navy has produced exactly one All-American on the defensive side of the ball, safety Chet Moeller, and exactly two NFL Draft picks, in the 14th and 7th rounds respectively. Navy’s overall defensive stats are always going to look good, leading the AAC, #13 nationally, due to their offensive style. But even at a per play basis, the Midshipmen ranked 3rd in the conference, despite breaking in the fifth youngest defense in the FBS. They were bolstered by the return of first year defensive coordinator Brian Newberry, who turned down multiple Power Five offers, including publicly from Mike Leach at Mississippi State. Pay change aside, your defense is going to look a lot better when you pair it with an offense running a triple option, as opposed to an air raid. The offense also looks to be in solid shape...with one glaring omission, quarterback Malcolm Perry, last year’s AAC Player of the Year. Every back who saw significant carries last year, except one is back, led by dive expert Jamale Carothers. Carothers is money in short yardage situations. On 111 carries, he was only stopped behind the line twice, the ideal threat to collapse defenses in the triple option. If Nelson Smith can recapture his 2019 form he showed as a sophomore, before a disappointing junior season, with some mild injury concerns, the Midshipmen should be more than set with their backfield, if they get the quarterback position set. Macolm Perry is off to the NFL, a rare talent at Navy, opening a battle between sophomore Perry Olsen and senior Dalen Morris. Olsen probably has the edge, with three remaining years of eligibility, and saw action in nine games last year. The problem is that he was horrible in that limited action, completing just 2 of 8 passes, and averaging just 2.4 ypc on 34 rushes.

	KEY PLAYERS
FB	Jamale Carothers, Junior
FB	Nelson Smith, Senior
T	Billy Honaker, Senior
	.
LB	Diego Fagot, Junior
S	Kevin Brennan, Junior
S	Evan Fochtman, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 06, 2020, 01:55:02 PM

#37 Nebraska Cornhuskers

#8 in Big Ten

For all of my many, many incorrect predictions last year, one I was dead on about, was not buying in on Scott Frost Year 2. But even I had them getting to 6-6 and bowl eligible. The Huskers enter 2020 off of their worst three year stretch since 1959-1961, which Bill Jennings canned, and Bob Devaney hired. If Frost can’t at least get this team to a bowl, school legend status or not, he might be gone. Fortunately, he should be able to muster at least that, but needs to get off to a good start. The Huskers open with 5 of 6 at home, and the only road games they play prior to Halloween are at Northwestern and Rutgers. There is a very good chance Nebraska is 7-0 going into a trip to Columbus on Halloween, but from that point on, continuing on with trips Iowa City and Madison, plus home games against Penn State and Minnesota, looks like a monster. Will Husker fans be content with 7-5? If it is a 7-0 start with an 0-5 finish? Last year the question was whether the surrounding pieces would give Adrian Martinez enough help to take the offense to the next level. Now the question is whether Martinez can put himself back on the trajectory, particularly as a passer, that he seemed to be on after his freshman year. He saw his completion percentage drop by 5%, his touchdown passes cut nearly in half, and his interception rate rise from 2.3% to 3.6%. That might not seem like a lot, but it drops you from 44th in the FBS in interception rate to #106, falling from 7th to 9th in the Big Ten in total QBR. Considering he has missed substantial portions of multiple games in each of his first two years, the transfers of backups Noah Vedral and Andrew Bunch leaves Luke McCaffrey, who is an able runner, as the only real backup option on campus. While the continued story of Maurice Washington’s continued presence on the team, despite his ongoing legal issues, was a story last year, he was a very effective lighting to Dedrick Mills’ thunder. Mills’ 745 rushing yards last year ranks fourth among returning Big Ten players, but finding a complimentary piece without Washington was a major issue for Nebraska last year. Three quarterbacks, and a receiver, had more rushing yards than Nebraska’s next most production running back, senior walk on Wyatt Mazour...who has graduated himself. Incoming freshman Sevion Morrison, from Tulsa, Oklahoma, has a chance to fill that void instantly. It’s the same deal at receiver, where Nebraska has one of the best duos in the country...and nearly nothing behind them. J.D. Spielman and Wan’Dale Robinson are both coming off All-Big Ten seasons, and if Purdue would stop churning out freshman receiver machines, Robinson could have been Big Ten Freshman of the Year. Jack Stoll is a reliable, although not exciting, option at tight end. No other receiver or tight end on the roster had more than eight receptions last year, which why Frost brought in five new receiver recruits, four of which were four star, two of whom were the #1 and #2 rated JUCO players in the nation. If even two of those guys pan out, Nebraska should have the best receiving group in the conference. But the defense still has to get things figured out. They improved last year...to the fourth worst unit in the Big Ten, in spite of starting 6 seniors. So it’s sort of back to square one...again. The cornerback position is rock solid, but everywhere else is a question mark. That cornerback pair of Decaprio Bootle and Cam Taylor-Britt (assuming he moves there full time with Lamar Jackson graduated) helped Nebraska hold opponents to just 6.6 ypa, fourth best in the Big Ten; also ranking fourth in interception rate and yards per completion. The front seven, which couldn’t do anything against the run, allowing more yards per attempt than anyone but Rutgers, may actually be worse. Nebraska needs to get off to some quick starts, because if they fall behind, opponents are just going to grind that front to death.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Dedrick Mills, Senior
WR	J.D. Spielman, Senior
WR	Wan'Dale Robinson, Sophomore
	.
LB	Will Honas, Senior
CB	Dicaprio Bootle, Senior
CB	Cam Taylor-Britt, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on May 07, 2020, 11:10:21 AM

damn

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on May 07, 2020, 11:47:12 AM

Frost will get 5 years at least he's already proven he can win.The Admins would have to be Wuhan bat wild if they canned him.Barring crashing a motorcycle with a 25 yr old graduate assistant Vixen on the back type debacle he'll get at least 6yrs IMO.For many that would be a stepping stone position for Frost it's a dream destination.I for one would like to see the Bug eaters at the top again,sans the Husker Prick Squad

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 07, 2020, 01:15:46 PM

Even with a helmet bump, the Huskers were unable to outrank the Hoosiers.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 07, 2020, 01:56:23 PM

ELA, where do you find the havoc rate numbers?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on May 07, 2020, 02:59:22 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on May 07, 2020, 01:15:46 PM

Even with a helmet bump, the Huskers were unable to outrank the Hoosiers.

With out Frost they may be unable outplay them moving forward

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 03:03:20 PM

Some interesting teams have yet to be called (duh), like UNC and Tennessee. I think UNC should be pretty good, not so high on the Vols.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 07, 2020, 03:45:35 PM

Quote from: bayareabadger on May 07, 2020, 01:56:23 PM

ELA, where do you find the havoc rate numbers?

Connolly still posts selective data on his Twitter account, but I'm at his mercy there.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 07, 2020, 03:54:39 PM

#36 California Golden Bears

#4 in Pac 12

We move from a team that can’t seem to figure out defense, to a team that can’t seem to figure out anything but. The defense wasn’t quite the 2018 elite version, but it was still very good. While Evan Weaver, who led the nation in tackles, while setting a school record, is now a member of the Arizona Cardinals, two of his fellow All-Pac 12 linemen return. Then Justin Wilcox received good new after good news. Cornerback Camryn Bynum, who seemed primed to jump to the NFL, leaving the Bears without 3 NFL defensive backs, including both corners, decided to return to Berkeley for his senior year. Then, facing the prospect of having to replace his entire defensive line, the NCAA granted sixth years of eligibility to not one, but two linemen, including all-conference performer Zeandae Johnson. Just like that, Cal’s run defense, third best in the Pac 12 at 3.6 ypc allowed, including holding Stanford and UCLA to a combined 2.0 ypc in back to back wins to end the regular season, looks like a strength again. For this team to take the next step, whatever that might be, the offense has to be at least competent. What that next step is, who knows? While Washington and Washington State are taking a step back, Stanford remains down, and Oregon has to replace the #6 pick in the NFL Draft at quarterback, asking them to win the division and play for a conference title seems like a tall ask. This is a school that hasn’t had a winning conference record since 2009, hasn’t finished ranked in the AP Poll since 2006, and hasn’t gone to a Rose Bowl since 1958. If they can get to 9-3, and be relevant in the Pac 12 North into November, that’s huge. And really, there’s no excuse for the offense not to be at least decent, returning 9 starters; including two starters with extensive starting experience, all six players who finished with at least 15 rushing yards, all 14 players who caught a pass, and 4 of 5 starting offensive linemen. The Bears return 93% of their offensive production, most in the FBS. The question is whether that translates to production, and there are reasons for optimism. Cal won 4 of their final 5 games, averaging 27.4 ppg, after a 4-4 start, where they averaged just 17.4. While Devon Modster was a very serviceable backup, and was probably a better runner, the drop off in the passing game in the games where Chase Garbers either didn’t play at all, or left injured was huge. In those 6 games, the Bears averaged roughly 130 fewer passing yards, 11.3 fewer ppg, and went 1-5, as opposed to 7-0 with Garbers. The decision on any staff changes to make offensively was made easier by offensive coordinator Beau Baldwin being hired away as the head coach at Cal Poly, trying to reignite the success he had as head coach at FCS Eastern Washington, having five top 5 finishes from 2010-2016, including a national title. That allowed Wilcox to make a change, without having to fire someone. That someone new is Bill Musgrave, who has extensive coordinating experience in his 24 year coaching career, but all of that time, except a two year stint at Virginia in 2001 and 2002, was in the NFL. Most recently as offensive coordinator with the Broncos from 2017-2018. For all the returning faces though you still have to remember that this offense still finished dead last in the Pac 12 in every major offensive category, except rushing offense, ranking outside the top 100 in the FBS in the same categories. Challenging Oregon depends on Garbers being an All-Conference type quarterback.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Chase Garbers, Junior
RB	Christopher Brown Jr., Junior
T	Jake Curhan, Senior
	.
DE	Zeandae Johnson, Senior
LB	Kuony Deng, Senior
CB	Camryn Bynum, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on May 07, 2020, 04:01:36 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on May 07, 2020, 01:15:46 PM

Even with a helmet bump, the Huskers were unable to outrank the Hoosiers.

15 yard penalty - hitting below the belt

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 07, 2020, 06:49:56 PM

ELA Top 35 Demographics
30 P5
8 Sec: 4 East/4 West
7 Big Ten: 4 East/3 West
6 Big Xii
5 Acc: 2 Atlantic/3 Coastal
3 Pac 12: 1 North/2 South
1 P5 Independent
5 G5 (FL, ID, OH, TN and NC)
3 Aac: 2 East/1 West
1 Mwc: 1 Mountain/0 West
1 Sunbelt: 1 East/0 West

By State:
3 teams: Texas
2 teams: Alabama, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, N Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Virginia
Down to their final at bat: California, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Oregon, S Carolina, Utah and Wisconsin.

Idaho, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin remain unblemished.

None of the 4+ team states have been entirely eliminated.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 07, 2020, 06:51:09 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 07, 2020, 04:01:36 PM

15 yard penalty - hitting below the belt

In fairness the Vols only beat you out by getting a helmet bump and an SEC bump, simultaneously.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 07, 2020, 07:17:20 PM

Is Kentucky still out? Huh. Must be. Nice coaching job there I will say, and I won't brook argument.

The Vols should drop soon. In the west, you have the usual, I'm far from convinced about A&M.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 07, 2020, 09:44:06 PM

Quote from: ELA on May 05, 2020, 03:07:02 PM

#38 Navy Midshipmen
#4 in American
I always include the “service academies are impossible to predict” caveat, because they always lean senior-heavy, and their year to year success is seemingly largely based on how a singular class pans out. See last year when I thought Army was an upset of Michigan away from playing in a New Years Six bowl, while Navy, coming off a 3-10 season (the program’s worst since 2002), while returning the fifth least production in the entire FBS, was destined for another long year. Instead, Army went 5-8, with just 3 FBS wins (Rice, UTSA, Massachusetts), while Navy went 11-2, beat Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl, and finished ranked #20, their second highest finish since 1963. So, I’m back to being bullish on the Midshipmen this year, but who knows. What I do know is that the Navy defense returns 8 starters, as indirectly mentioned, almost unheard of for the service academies. They will take a bit of a hit if LB/S hybrid Jake Springer, an honorable mention all-conference performer last year, doesn’t return. He put his name in the transfer portal in mid-March, but hasn’t yet landed anywhere. If he returns, to pair with Diego Fagot, Navy has the top linebacker duo in the American. Fagot, on his own is a difference maker, one of just three underclassmen to earn first all-conference defensive honors a year ago, and the only non-senior linebacker to do so. It’s not hyperbole to say he is on pace to become the best defensive player to play at the academy since Ron Beagle and Bob Reifsnyder in the 50s, both of whom are in the College Football Hall of Fame. In the 60 years since Reifsnyder graduated, Navy has produced exactly one All-American on the defensive side of the ball, safety Chet Moeller, and exactly two NFL Draft picks, in the 14th and 7th rounds respectively. Navy’s overall defensive stats are always going to look good, leading the AAC, #13 nationally, due to their offensive style. But even at a per play basis, the Midshipmen ranked 3rd in the conference, despite breaking in the fifth youngest defense in the FBS. They were bolstered by the return of first year defensive coordinator Brian Newberry, who turned down multiple Power Five offers, including publicly from Mike Leach at Mississippi State. Pay change aside, your defense is going to look a lot better when you pair it with an offense running a triple option, as opposed to an air raid. The offense also looks to be in solid shape...with one glaring omission, quarterback Malcolm Perry, last year’s AAC Player of the Year. Every back who saw significant carries last year, except one is back, led by dive expert Jamale Carothers. Carothers is money in short yardage situations. On 111 carries, he was only stopped behind the line twice, the ideal threat to collapse defenses in the triple option. If Nelson Smith can recapture his 2019 form he showed as a sophomore, before a disappointing junior season, with some mild injury concerns, the Midshipmen should be more than set with their backfield, if they get the quarterback position set. Macolm Perry is off to the NFL, a rare talent at Navy, opening a battle between sophomore Perry Olsen and senior Dalen Morris. Olsen probably has the edge, with three remaining years of eligibility, and saw action in nine games last year. The problem is that he was horrible in that limited action, completing just 2 of 8 passes, and averaging just 2.4 ypc on 34 rushes.

KEY PLAYERS
FB Jamale Carothers, Junior
FB Nelson Smith, Senior
T Billy Honaker, Senior
.
LB Diego Fagot, Junior
S Kevin Brennan, Junior
S Evan Fochtman, Senior

Navy has not been shy about throwing in older QBs, and their recent history has been kinda interesting.

Reynolds was a tank of a player four four years and a so-so passer. He was replaced first by Tago Smith, who got hurt in the next year's opener, giving way for Will Worth to deliver possibly the best passing season of any modern triple QB (and maybe a case for the best?). They tried to make the burley Zach Abey happen, but he was at times up and down and pretty injury prone. He got either hurt or benched late in that season for slotback Malcolm Perry. Perry started the final three games and then the first five of the next, but things were going bad so he got moved back to RB (Abey and Garret Lewis spit time, which was weird and bad). Then Perry got the job and they figured out how to run an offense around him and it was stupendous.

It's been a weird ride.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 08, 2020, 10:57:31 AM

#35 Kansas State Wildcats

#6 in Big XII

I’m still skeptical of whether anybody can win at Kansas State other than Bill Snyder. Yes, Chris Klieman had a solid first season, going 8-5, with a Liberty Bowl loss, coming off a 5-7 year in Bill Snyder’s final season. But remember Ron Prince inherited a program coming off back to back 4-7 and 5-6 seasons, and went 7-5 with a Texas Bowl loss in his first year. I do think Klieman is a hell of a coach, which is sort of why I was surprised this was the job he took. The Wildcats were able to scrape together an 8 win campaign last year thanks to an opportunistic defense, which finished 2nd in the Big XII in scoring defense, despite finishing 8th in ypp allowed, including dead last against the run. Their secondary was very good, all things considered. The front seven couldn’t stop the run, and didn’t really get after the quarterback much, tallying just 1.69 sacks per game, second lowest in the conference. But even with all that, and an early November season ending injury to their best player in the back four, cornerback A.J. Parker, the secondary held their own. They were third in the Big XII in pass defense efficiency, being one of only two teams in the conference to hold their opponents below 60% completions, and allowing just 12 passing touchdowns, easily the fewest in the conference. But why the scoring numbers were so good is a little bit of a mystery. The normal places you look to find those discrepancies, don’t really show anything. The Wildcats surrendered scores on 97% of red zone trips, worst in the nation and had a negative turnover differential. They did stop their opponents on third down 71.5% of the time, second best nationally. The job is now up to new defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman, who earned it after the job he did with the secondary last year. Granted Kansas State was in a bit of a bind, as far as external searches go, when Scottie Hazelton was hired away by Michigan State, after just one year, on February 27. Very late in the game anytime, and with COVID shutting everything down two weeks later, nearly impossible to do a full search. But even under normal circumstances, Klanderman could have wound up getting the promotion. What to expect from the offense, nobody knows. Kansas State has ranked in the bottom 20 of the FBS in terms of pass play percentage in each of the past four seasons, but personnel is going to dictate that is going to need to flip this year. The Wildcats graduated their entire starting offensive line, and their top two running backs. What they do have is a senior quarterback in Skylar Thompson, a dual threat veteran, who ran for 565 yards a year ago, including 11 rushing touchdowns, fourth most in the Big XII overall, second among quarterbacks. While his sub 60% completion percentage isn’t great, when he misses, it doesn’t go to the other team. He had the second lowest interception percentage in the conference. He’s got the making of what could be an outstanding receiver group thanks to three true sophomores. Malik Knowles and Phillip Brooks were first and second on the team last year in receptions, and the electric Joshua Youngblood should see himself more involved in the passing game after being as big a special teams weapon as existed in the country last year, being the only player in the nation with 3 kick return touchdowns. They also bring back all-conference kicker Blake Lynch, who was perfect on PATs last year, and is 33-35 on field goals inside of 50 yards over his career. The two of them were the primary reason Wildcats’ special teams ranked #8 nationally in SP+.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Skylar Thompson, Senior
WR	Malik Knowles, Sophomore
K	Blake Lynch, Senior
	.
DE	Wyatt Hubert, Junior
LB	Elijah Sullivan, Senior
CB	A.J. Parker, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 09, 2020, 02:02:06 PM

#34 Virginia Cavaliers

#5 in ACC

The Bronco Mendenhall hire seemed curious at the time, but the program stuck with him, and the gradual build paid off...sort of. He went from 2-10 in Year 1, to 6 wins and the program’s first bowl in six years in Year 2, to 8 wins in Year 3, to their first ever ACC Championship, and first BCS/New Years Six Bowl since 1990 last year. All of that said, the Cavs still lost 5 games, and finished unranked. In fairness, none of the losses occurred in Charlottesville, with three coming against Top 10 teams. But the flip side is that the best win was? A 39-30 home win over a 5 loss Virginia Tech team thanks to two scores, 22 seconds apart, in the final two minutes? The offense should shift from a pass reliant offense, to more run heavy, with the graduation of quarterback Bryce Perkins, and his top two receivers. That starts up front, where Mendenhall went young on the offensive line, with the hopeful payoff coming in 2020, with not only the entire starting five returning, but the entire two deep. The middle of that line, led by Olusegun Oluwatimi could form one of the best run blocking cores in the conference, after already being a solid run blocking unit last year, despite the lousy run numbers. They really started to come together late in the year, and even though the Cavs finished the year against Virginia Tech, Clemson, and Florida, they averaged 4.6 ypc against those opponents, compared to 3.4 ypc against the prior (lesser) opponents. The problem was the lack of ball carriers. Quarterback Bryce Perkins had nearly twice as many carries and twice as many yards as any back did. The bulk of the carries that Perkins didn’t take, went to Wayne Taulapapa, who wasn’t overly efficient, but did have a nose for the end zone. His 12 touchdowns on just 116 carries was the second fewest carries for any player with 12 or more touchdowns. They also brought in Ronnie Walker, who was a highly touted in state prospect who instead went to Indiana, but has now transferred back home. Sophomore quarterback Brennan Armstrong, who was the #2 last year, was the presumptive starter at quarterback, but just last week they added Mississippi State transfer Keytaon Thompson, with immediate eligibility. He is a major dual threat talent, who was a poor fit for Mike Leach’s offense, but fits in really nicely with what Virginia did last year with Perkins. Particularly considering that aside from Terrell Jana, the receivers are a major question mark, with Joe Reed and Hasise Dubois, and their combined 152 receptions, gone. As solid as the offensive line appears to be, the defensive trenches look to be problematic on the edges. Jowon Briggs was outstanding at nose tackle as a freshman. He probably should have earned at least honorable mention all-conference honors last year, and should be a lock last year. Behind them though, the back eight return nearly in tact, with the one notable exception of Jordan Mack, who led the team in sacks. The linebacker group, even without him, looks to still be very strong. The secondary hinges on how much of their struggles last year were injury and youth related. Starting cornerback Darrius Bratton and safety Brenton Nelson both return after suffering season ending injuries last year, and they return to join the starting four that finished the year. The problem is that was a group that allowed 7.9 ypa on the season, and got worse as the season progressed, allowing over 10 ypa over those final three games. The issue was big plays, allowing an obscene 16.3 yards per completion over that stretch, which if stretched out would have been the third worst mark in the last five years.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Terrell Jana, Senior
C	Olusegun Oluwatimi, Junior
K	Brian Delaney, Senior
	.
LB	Charles Snowden, Senior
LB	Zane Zandier, Senior
S	Joey Blount, Senior

#33 Tennessee Volunteers

#8 in SEC

Two weeks into the 2019 season, Jeremy Pruitt looked destined to be the next former Tennessee head coach. From that point on, the Vols didn’t lose another game to a team ranked outside the final Top 8 of the AP Poll. Problem is, in the SEC, when Alabama is your crossover, that is still three more losses. Still, Tennessee fans have reasons to be cautiously optimistic headed into 2020, with plenty of steps left to take before Pruitt has won this bunch (used to winning much more than Gators Bowls) over. This program hasn’t finished ranked in the top 20 since 2007 (1974-1985 was the previous longest drought), hasn’t lost fewer that 4 games since 2004 (1975-1982 being their previous longest stretch), and hasn’t won an SEC title since their 1998 National Championship season (1969-1985 being their previous longest stretch). The improvement on offense likely begins and ends with the offensive line. The job Will Friend has done over the past two years can’t be understated. He inherited a dearth of talent in when hired from Colorado State in 2018, going from what was, by FootballOutsiders metrics, one of the worst lines in the entire FBS, to decent last year, to maybe as good as any in the SEC, if not country, this year. They have also been the beneficiary of good fortune (with perhaps more to come), with Trey Smith, who was a likely Day 2 draft pick, deciding to return for his senior year, where he projects to be a preseason First Team All-American, the #2 OG on Mel Kiper’s 2021 draft board. Smith had his sophomore season derailed by blood clots in his lungs, so the fact he is not only still in Knoxville, but arguably the best guard in the nation is a heartwarming development. Then, if former 5* OT Cade Mays has his transfer appeal approved, and Tennessee signed two 5* players in their 2019 class (2 of the 6 highest rated offensive linemen), they will pair with Smith to give Tennessee as good a left side of the line as exists in football. Senior quarterback Jarrett Guarantano returns, but always seems about to surrender the starting job. The latest challenger is incoming freshman Harrison Bailey, Tennessee’s highest rated quarterback recruit since 2005. His depleted receiver corps won’t help, but he does for the first time in his career have a running game to lean on with the 1-2 punch of Ty Chandler and Eric Gray. Tennessee hasn’t ranked higher than 13th in the SEC in ypc during the past three years. The defense is short on household names, but has more depth than they’ve had in a long time. The one likely breakout star is sophomore Henry To’o To’o, who was the highest rated defensive player in Tennessee’s 2019 class, and more than lived up to that billing as a true freshman, finishing second on the team in tackles. The Vols have plenty of steps to take to re-establish themselves, and the road isn’t easy. Florida looks to have rebounded from their post-Meyer years, Georgia is currently in their best run since the early 80s, and Alabama doesn’t appear to be going anywhere. And that is the problem. Vols went 5-3 in the SEC, with the three losses coming to those three schools. Those three opponents are going to continue to be on the schedule and Tennessee currently has a 13 game losing streak to Alabama (longest in series history), they’ve lost 13 of 14 from Florida, and 8 of 10 from Georgia. Until they figure out a way past the Bulldog/Gator/Crimson Tide roadblock, it’s hard to see them competing for more than third in the division.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Jarrett Guarantano, Senior
G	Trey Smith, Senior
K	Brent Cimaglia, Senior
	.
DE	Matthew Butler, Senior
LB	Henry To'o To'o, Sophomore
S	Shawn Shamburger, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 09, 2020, 04:19:21 PM

Tennessee has 2 SEC teams, one of which is a "helmet," yet a G5 program will be the top team in the state. Ouch.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 04:29:54 PM

For the Vols to be "nearly ranked" is pretty good for them for reasons noted. I think they play at Oklahoma this year.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 06:44:58 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 04:29:54 PM

For the Vols to be "nearly ranked" is pretty good for them for reasons noted. I think they play at Oklahoma this year.

Yep. 12 September in Norman.
Return trip to Knoxville 7 September 2024.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 09, 2020, 07:07:07 PM

If they upset OU (IF), they could be en route to a solid season. They play at UGA and go to Florida and host Alabama (if that matters).

There is always a chance of another upset, Kentucky has not yet been mentioned I think. They don't play Georgia State this year at least.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 10:21:33 PM

Tennessee at OU is the second game of the season. OU will be breaking in a new QB, either a RS freshman or a RS sophomore. If the Vols have their QB position solidified, they could be in a good position to pull an upset.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on May 10, 2020, 12:37:54 AM

Damn ELA kicking out these countdowns he must have a a gaggle of ghost writers or implementing my old go to of plagiarism

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 10, 2020, 12:41:51 AM

(https://www.extremetech.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/mr-burns-monkeys-typewriters1-640x381.jpg)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 07:46:21 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 09, 2020, 10:21:33 PM

Tennessee at OU is the second game of the season. OU will be breaking in a new QB, either a RS freshman or a RS sophomore. If the Vols have their QB position solidified, they could be in a good position to pull an upset.

They have five opponents ranked higher in this compendium than they are. I don't know what their fans are expecting.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 10, 2020, 08:52:14 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 07:46:21 AM

They have five opponents ranked higher in this compendium than they are. I don't know what their fans are expecting.

Tennessee? Probably too much

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 08:54:49 AM

Fans often expect too much, which is one reason coaches get fired rather quickly these days.

When they started 0-2, I'm sure Pruitt was vulnerable, but then they finished out OK, but struggled to beat Indiana in a bowl (miraculously really).

I imagine they have notions of taking down Florida and perhaps snaring OU and beating UK.

Fans often don't bother much with how they could lose to lower ranked teams.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 10, 2020, 10:38:10 AM

#32 Louisville Cardinals

#4 in ACC

The job Scott Satterfield did in salvaging Appalachian State, after Jerry Moore had let it slip heading into their FBS transition, qualified him for a better job. So why he would choose to cash that in at a school that was just five years removed from being a Group of Five school, coming off a 2-10 mess of a season, seemed curious. The job he did in his first year cannot be given enough credit. The Cardinals were picked to finish dead last in the Atlantic Division, and it was nearly a consensus. Instead, after an ACC opening loss in Tallahassee, Louisville won 5 of their 7 remaining ACC games, to finish alone in second. Granted a 45-10 blowout loss at home to Clemson, where they were outgained by 300 yards, showed just how big the gap was between them and #1. So what are the expectations for 2020? They were already second in their division, but if any (reasonable) person thinks the goal is to win at Clemson, and win the division, they are nuts. The season starts with a bang, opening with a divisional matchup against NC State, before that road game at Clemson. They also play November road games at Virginia and Notre Dame, before finishing with the annual rivalry game against Kentucky. So a New Years Six Bowl has to be the goal, and it seems like a reasonable one. The way the bowl tie ins work, there is room for a mediocre ACC team to grab that second slot, as a 9-4 Virginia did last year. The Cardinal are flush with exciting, young skill position players, with three underclassmen running backs and receivers earning all-conference honors last year. Micale Cunningham only averaged 14.8 passing attempts per game, which didn’t qualify him for the ACC stat leaders, but if he had, he would have led the conference in passing efficiency. They need him to handle more of the load this year, and his 62% completion rate, and 22 touchdowns to 5 interceptions suggest he can. This was already the #2 offense in the ACC last year, both in terms of scoring and yards per play, even with the handcuffs kept on Cunningham. The reason the handcuffs have to come off is because the defense has a long way to go to just be mediocre, surrendering ACC worsts 33.4 ppg on 6.3 ypp. They return seven starters, but this from the lone ACC unit, offense or defense, to fail to register even a single All-Conference player, including honorable mention. The problems began up front, allowing an ACC worst 5.4 ypc, 9th worst in the FBS, while also failing to get after quarterbacks, with the third worst sack rate in the conference, at 5.11%. There were some positive developments on that front late in the year, as they at least improved their pass rush, nearly doubling that rate, up to 10.17% over the final quarter of the season, 10th best in the nation, including a season high 4 sacks against Mississippi State in the Music City Bowl. Granted a good deal of that improvement came from the linebackers, not the line. G.G. Robinson was the only lineman to rack up more than 2 sacks on the season (4), and he has graduated.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Javian Hawkins, Sophomore
RB	Hassan Hall, Junior
WR	Tutu Atwell, Junior
	.
LB	C.J. Avery, Senior
LB	Rodjay Burns, Senior
LB	Monty Montgomery, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 10:39:28 AM

Would it be worthwhile to have a cleaned up version of this somewhere without all our commentary? The comments are often interesting and we obviously should have that, but perhaps in a separate thread?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 10, 2020, 12:32:59 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 10, 2020, 10:39:28 AM

Would it be worthwhile to have a cleaned up version of this somewhere without all our commentary? The comments are often interesting and we obviously should have that, but perhaps in a separate thread?

Drew will do that, and place it on the front page, as a published article.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 11, 2020, 12:40:41 PM

Quote from: ELA on May 07, 2020, 03:54:39 PM

#36 California Golden Bears
#4 in Pac 12
We move from a team that can’t seem to figure out defense, to a team that can’t seem to figure out anything but. The defense wasn’t quite the 2018 elite version, but it was still very good. While Evan Weaver, who led the nation in tackles, while setting a school record, is now a member of the Arizona Cardinals, two of his fellow All-Pac 12 linemen return. Then Justin Wilcox received good new after good news.

Going into his fourth year at Cal, Wilcox has done a better job than Cal deserves. The roster is built with depth, the player development on defense is fantastic, and now with a bit of winning consistency (15-11 with wins over ranked rivals last 2 seasons), I'd expect Wilcox to bolt for the next P5 program that looks his way. Outside of Tedford's tenure, Cal is no better than the Illinois or Duke football of the PAC 12, largely because the powers that be at Cal care more about self-congratulatory activism than winning. Winning at Cal is lot higher of a bar to clear than elsewhere. I thought Washington would've done well to hire Wilcox over Lake. And as long as Wilcox secedes the offense to more specialized minds, he'll bring a bright future to whoever extends their coaching search this far West.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 11, 2020, 03:32:49 PM

#31 Indiana Hoosiers

#7 in Big Ten

Peyton Ramsey did the best job as a backup quarterback filling in for an injured starter, since Cardale Jones in the College Football Playoff in 2014. But Michael Penix is the difference between the Hoosiers having another good year, and maybe being a dark shot candidate to reach Indianapolis. Can Penix actually stay healthy? He seemed primed to wrestle the starting job away from Ramsey in 2018, before suffering a season ending injury; and then won the job last year, only to suffer the same. He has shown so much promise, but has only actually played five games start to finish in two years. He is inserted into an offense that is loaded with talent, but is likewise one injury away from disaster with very little depth. The Hoosiers return an All-Big Ten player at running back, receiver and tight end, but had three reserve running backs enter the transfer portal; lost two of their next three receivers; and their second most productive tight end had 36 yards. If this was Ohio State or Penn State or Michigan, ok. But this is Indiana. When you are finding nits to pick with an Indiana offense that returns three all-conference skill position players, to surround a quarterback who set the school record for completion percentage (68.8%), you know you are looking at the most hyped Hoosier team ever. The offensive line has to improve though, after finishing #98 in line yards. To that end, Indiana added Stanford grad transfer guard Dylan Powell to strengthen the middle of the line, which really struggled. The Hoosiers hoped to get 2019 captain Coy Cronk back, who was able to redshirt after suffering a season ending ankle injury in September. True freshman Matt Bedford stepped in and was a star right away. The thought was that when Cronk returned he would flip over to right tackle, but instead he elected to take a grad transfer to Iowa to replace Tristan Wirfs at left tackle. It’s not just the offensive line where instant impact players from Palo Alto are expected to factor in in 2020. The defensive line from 2019 returns intact, anchored by interior tackle Demarcus Elliott, but Jovonn Swann, from Greenwood, Indiana, who spurned the Hoosiers out of high school, returns from Stanford as a grad transfer, as does Auburn flip Damarjhe Lewis, part of Indiana’s incoming class. Indiana has had impact skill position players through all of their bad teams, but Tom Allen seems to understand the importance of being able to at least hold up in the trenches to compete in the Big Ten East. You almost wonder if this group is better suited to play a 3-4. The four best players are all interior linemen on a 4 man line, but the ends are not getting after the quarterback. The only end to record a sack last year was James Head Jr., who was fifth on the team with 2.5. The secondary did a good enough job on a play to play basis, with the fifth lowest opponent completion percentage in the Big Ten, but simply surrendered too many big plays, and didn’t make enough themselves. They gave up 13.0 ypc, second worst in the Big Ten, while generating the second worst interception rate. There is a lot of promise surrounding cornerback Tiawan Mullen, who was honorable mention All-Big Ten, but 1st team 247 Freshman All-American, 2nd team by PFF.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Stevie Scott III, Junior
WR	Whop Philyor, Senior
TE	Peyton Hendershot, Junior
	.
DT	Demarcus Elliott, Junior
LB	Micah McFadden, Junior
CB	Tiawan Mullen, Sophomore

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 03:48:20 PM

relived that the Hoosiers are off the Husker's sched this season

the Hoosiers appear to be trending up and I really don't enjoy losing to them

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 11, 2020, 04:03:10 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 03:48:20 PM

relived that the Hoosiers are off the Husker's sched this season

the Hoosiers appear to be trending up and I really don't enjoy losing to them

I'm not sure they are overall trending up. Their recruiting class last year doesn't look great. This just appears to be one of those years where everything lines up for them. In a time, they could have been a 6-2/7-1 Big Ten co-champ going to Pasadena. In the current model I don't see them winning in Columbus to get to Indy.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 11, 2020, 04:04:42 PM

The ELA Top 30
25 P5
7 SEC: 3 East/4 West
6 Big Ten: 3 East/2 West
5 Big !2
3 Pac 12: 1 North/2 South
3 ACC: 1 Atlantic/2Coastal
1 P5 Independent
5 G5
3 AAC: 2 East/1 West
1 MWC: 1 Mountain/0 West
1 Sunbelt: 1 East/0 West
.
By State
3 Teams: Texas
2 Teams: Alabama, Florida, Iowa, N Carolina, Ohio and Oklahoma
1 Team: California, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Oregon, S Carolina, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Every 4+ team state still has at least one team remaining.

Idaho, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin remain unscathed.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 04:18:11 PM

UK should be up soon. Is it MTSU that is still alive in Tenn?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 11, 2020, 05:03:08 PM

Could be. Wait and see.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 11, 2020, 08:43:51 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 04:18:11 PM

UK should be up soon. Is it MTSU that is still alive in Tenn?

I'm curious too

Quote from: ELA on March 04, 2020, 09:30:22 AM

#109 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
#8 in Conference USA

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 11, 2020, 10:36:03 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 04:18:11 PM

UK should be up soon. Is it MTSU that is still alive in Tenn?

(Memphis)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 07:56:34 AM

Ah yes, forgot about them. MTSU would have been a shocker, Memphis makes sense.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 12, 2020, 09:45:52 AM

Quote from: CatsbyAZ on May 11, 2020, 12:40:41 PM

Going into his fourth year at Cal, Wilcox has done a better job than Cal deserves. The roster is built with depth, the player development on defense is fantastic, and now with a bit of winning consistency (15-11 with wins over ranked rivals last 2 seasons), I'd expect Wilcox to bolt for the next P5 program that looks his way. Outside of Tedford's tenure, Cal is no better than the Illinois or Duke football of the PAC 12, largely because the powers that be at Cal care more about self-congratulatory activism than winning. Winning at Cal is lot higher of a bar to clear than elsewhere. I thought Washington would've done well to hire Wilcox over Lake. And as long as Wilcox secedes the offense to more specialized minds, he'll bring a bright future to whoever extends their coaching search this far West.

As I recall they dumped a mess of money into the program in the late 2000s and eased academic restrictions. In the end, it's just not a great football school, even if the school suddenly got on board. It's got a student body that's tepid about football in a town mostly tepid about it in a deeply disinterested high school football area.

I think Wilcox has been solid, though it's not like he's highly outperformed his last two predecessors. Built some great half-teams. Maybe he's got the goods to thrive at a next stop, but I'm not super high on him.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 12, 2020, 10:45:57 AM

Who will be the first 4+ team state to circle the drain?

California, Tennessee and Virginia are each clinging on for dear life.
Georgia, Louisiana and Michigan are also down to their final team, but their final teams are generally pretty good.
Florida, N Carolina and Ohio still have two teams, but one in each instance is G5.
Even though they had five teams in the bottom ten, Texas is probably in pretty good shape at this point with three P5 teams remaining.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 10:58:09 AM

I THINK he will have USC lowest ranked, then Memphis, then UVA.

Clemson may be #1, returning QB etc.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 12, 2020, 11:40:01 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 10:58:09 AM

I THINK he will have USC lowest ranked, then Memphis, then UVA.

Already did UVa, VT still out there

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 12, 2020, 11:43:13 AM

#30 Boise State Broncos

#1 in Mountain West

Saying Boise State is at a crossroads is far too dramatic. The program is fine. But after the run they had from 2006-2014, where they finished ranked in the top 15 seven times and went to three BCS/New Years Six bowls, winning all three, the Broncos are sort of stuck in a weird in between ever since. Part of that is being a victim of the format of the FBS, but Boise State was supposed to be the program regularly competing for that one New Years Six spot, and since 2014, they haven’t been particularly close. They’ve still played in three consecutive Mountain West championship games, winning two of them, but they haven’t been ranked higher than #19 after November 1 since 2014, not even factoring into the New Years Six auto-bid conversation, let alone any fringe CFP talk. Quarterback Hank Bachmeier looked fine, for a true freshman, but he’s going to have to get a lot better in his second year. His passer rating of 142.7 is the worst of any full time starter at the school since prior to 2000, but a lot more is going to be on his shoulders this year, because the running game could be rough. The Broncos featured the Mountain West freshman of the year a season ago, with George Holani being one of four backs to top the 1,000 yard mark; but on the whole Boise State finished in the bottom half of the conference in ypc, in spite of an offensive line that ranked top 28 nationally in all six of Football Outsiders run blocking metrics. Three of those linemen graduated, and Ezra Cleveland left early for the NFL (where he was picked in the second round), leaving right tackle John Ojukwu as the sole returning starter. Bachmeier and Khalil Shakir developed a strong rapport last year, Shakir emerging as the most frequent target. But all of that was aided by the departed John Hightower’s ability to stretch the field. Redshirt sophomore Stefan Cobbs might be the leading candidate to fill that role, if not incoming freshman LaTrell Caples. Defensively, Boise State has to hope that their trio of all-conference cornerbacks is so good that they can put all three on islands, because while there might not be three cornerbacks with as proven a track history on any one team in the roster, they are surrounded by questions. Like with the offense, the biggest issue appears to be the defensive line. The most notable departure is obviously Curtis Weaver, going pro early after being named Mountain West Conference Defensive Player of the Year, but it doesn’t end there. Linemates Chase Hatada and Sonatane Lui finished 2nd and 3rd on the team in sacks (behind Weaver), and both graduated. In fact there isn’t a lineman on the team returning who recorded a sack last year. The most disruptive returning lineman is 310 pound nose tackle Scale Igiehorn, who recorded 38 tackles, including 3 for loss, but no sacks, or fumbles forced or recovered. That secondary, which led the conference in opponents completion percentage and was second in yards per attempt allowed, will be relied upon to do a lot more behind a front that seems unlikely to repeat their 40 sack performance from a year ago, most in the conference, 14th most nationally.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	George Holani, Sophomore
WR	Khalil Shakir, Junior
TE	John Bates, Senior
	.
LB	Riley Whimpey, Senior
CB	Kehaula Kaniho, Senior
CB	Jalen Walker, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 11:48:08 AM

Quote from: ELA on May 12, 2020, 11:40:01 AM

Already did UVa, VT still out there

Heh, I'm not keeping up well at all. I missed UVA, I thought they would be decent this year.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 12, 2020, 11:54:09 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 12, 2020, 11:48:08 AM

Heh, I'm not keeping up well at all. I missed UVA, I thought they would be decent this year.

Didn't miss them by much. They were #34

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 12, 2020, 11:55:54 AM

Now the Mountain Time Zone is down to one team, while the Pacific Time Zone still has two.

The Mountain West is out. Still four G5s remain, with 3 AAC and one Sunbelt.

The Sunbelt has a higher ceiling than the Mountain West? Incredible.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 13, 2020, 10:46:56 AM

#29 Utah Utes

#3 in Pac 12

The Utes entered the Pac 12 Championship Game positioned to maybe get into the College Football Playoff with a win, sitting at #5 in the nation, 11-1 overall, on an eight game winning streak, where they were winning by an average of 29 ppg, with only one game (a 33-28 win at Washington) being closer than 18 points. Utah went out and lost their final two games, being that conference title game followed by a lackluster Alamo Bowl against Texas, by a combined 50 points. They had spent all year leaning too hard on their defense, which had only twice all year given up more than 17 points, and it finally broke, surrendering 75 points over those two games. So while dropping a team that was one game away from the Playoff entirely out of the top 25 seems harsh, that defense needs a near total reboot, to replace 7 senior starters, and two underclassmen who left early. The Utes lost 73% of their defensive production, most in the nation. Fortunately they were one of the best defenses in the nation a year ago. Few teams return only two starters on a side of a ball...yet still return two all-conference honorees; but few have 10 of 11 starters earn all-conference honors. The run defense, which was tops in the nation a year ago, should continue to be strong, led by linebacker Devin Lloyd, who led the team in tackles, with 91, and tackles for loss, with 11, as a sophomore last year. Mike Tafua is the best pass rusher on the line, but he’ll have to figure out how to operate without sack king Bradlee Anae drawing double and triple teams across from him, plus a pair of new interior linemen. A new name to watch in the secondary is freshman cornerback Clark Phillips III from Lakewood, California. Phillips is the #50 overall prospect, and #5 cornerback, who was committed to Ohio State, until his lead recruiter, Jeff Hafley, left to take the Boston College head coaching job. The beneficiary is the Utes, who made Phillips, the highest rated recruit in school history, the crown jewel of their highest rated class in school history. Considering the four highest rated players in the class all play on defense, I would bet on seeing them getting a chance to contribute immediately. While the offense only lost four starters, its four starters who saw the ball a lot, including starting quarterback, starting running back, and best receiver. Utah would probably looking for new wideouts to emerge either way, after tight end Brant Kuithe led the team in receptions and receiving yards, and tailback Zack Moss was second. Tyler Huntley was insanely accurate, his 73.1% completion rate was second nationally to Joe Burrow; and his 10.3 ypa was third, behind Burrow and Jalen Hurts. But Utah only threw the ball 22.7 times per game, ahead of only four triple option teams, Buffalo, Kentucky and Wyoming. With an unknown running back situation, and a less mobile South Carolina’s Jake Bentley transferring in, that has to change. Bentley, and whoever emerges at running back should get to benefit from at least what might be the best offensive line in the conference, even if it lacks the top end NFL star power of Oregon’s. So while dropping Utah entirely out of the top 25 seems harsh, it’s actually a sign of respect that I’m not dropping them farther, considering they are a newly minted Power Five team, who lost more production than anyone in the FBS.

	KEY PLAYERS
TE	Brant Kuithe, Junior
T	Simi Moala, Sophomore
G	Nick Ford, Junior
	.
DE	Mike Taufa, Junior
DE	Maxs Tupai, Senior
LB	Devin Lloyd, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 13, 2020, 03:16:58 PM

That obliterates the state of Utah and the Mountain Time Zone.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 13, 2020, 03:32:01 PM

Which Red Dawn taught us is not an easy task

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 13, 2020, 04:01:07 PM

Teams that could come up soon (and I will miss the real ones probably);

VT
UNC
A&M
Kentucky
Memphis
That other Florida school
Eastern Michigan>:(

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 14, 2020, 10:45:26 AM

#28 Kentucky Wildcats

#7 in SEC

While on paper, 2019 might not have measured up to a 2018 season that was Kentucky’s best since 1977, is a lot of ways it was a testament to the program Mark Stoops has built that he lost arguably the best offensive and defensive players in the SEC a year before (at Ken-freaking-tucky), suffered a season needing injury to his quarterback, that forced him to move running back Lynn Bowden into a full time wildcat slot, and still went 8-5, with a bowl win over Virginia Tech. The Wildcat offense will look less, well Wildcat, this year, but the task of replacing Lynn Bowden is no small one. He was never in the Heisman discussion, but if college football had a true MVP award, it would be hard to make a stronger case for anyone else. That is how, despite returning 9 starters, Kentucky manages to lose 32% of their offensive production. The graduation of Logan Stenberg, one of the first guards off the board does also hurt the interior of the line, where he, along with center Drake Jackson formed one of the 20 best run blocking lines in the nation. Assuming Terry Wilson is healthy, he should slide back into the starting quarterback role that he lost due to injury. He was not cleared to participate in spring practice though, so how healthy he’ll be is still a legitimate question. The only potential challenger is Auburn transfer Joey Gatewood, who would need an NCAA waiver to play. It does not seem as though that is even being sought, so it may hinge on the NCAA rule change passing. Sawyer Smith’s struggles are what led to the Bowden move, so I doubt Stoops wants to go back to him. What either Wilson or Gatewood should help showcase is what is actually a deep stable of running backs. Aside from Bowden, who ran for 1,485 yards on nearly 8 ypc; the Wildcats had Asim Rose with 826 yards on 5.5 ypc, Kavosiay Smoke (best name in college football) with 630 yards on 6.1 ypc; and Chris Rodriguez with 533 yards on 7.5 ypc. All three return, after finishing 2nd in the FBS at 6.0 ypc, and that was without any passing threat to keep defenses honest, running the ball 66.7% of the time, third most in the FBS of non-triple option teams. Kentucky’s defense fell from 4th to 9th in the SEC in ypp allowed, which is not surprising considering the NFL talent they lost the year prior. I expect a bounceback this year, particularly in the back eight, led by a group of linebackers whose depth can challenge any in the SEC, including Alabama. The potential future star is in the secondary though in safety Yusuf Corker, who went from being in a position battle entering the fall, to being a first time starter, to leading the team in tackles. Corker was a high school cornerback, who has grown into the safety position, but still possesses elite cover skills. The difference between being a good SEC team, and an SEC contender though is in the trenches, and Kentucky underwent a total overhaul on their defensive line. Stoops knew it, and he solved the problem...although probably not for 2020. Three of the Wildcats’ four highest rated recruits are on the line, led by defensive tackle Justin Rogers, the program’s highest rated recruit since 2006, but you don’t want to rely on three 18 year olds to hold up against Florida or Georgia. And they’ll find out quickly, with a trip to Gainesville in Week 2, where they won in 2018, but previously hadn’t since 1979.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Terry Wilson, Senior
RB	Asim Rose, Senior
C	Drake Jackson, Senior
	.
LB	Jamar Watson, Senior
S	Yusuf Corker, Junior
P	Max Duffy, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 10:53:49 AM

UK looks to be a testament to the benefits of great coaching. I think you have them too high, they look like an 8-5 kind of team to me, again.

Their defense could make them a tough out. They get Miss State at home and Auburn on the road from the West, Louisville seems unlikely to challenge them. Then there are the two East powers and Tennessee. They could of course get upset by someone else, just as they might upset UF/UGA/Auburn. They get UGA at home late when the weather could be bitterly cold.

Of course, if they win a minor bowl game, they could be 9-4 and get ranked.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 14, 2020, 11:41:54 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 14, 2020, 10:53:49 AM

UK looks to be a testament to the benefits of great coaching. I think you have them too high, they look like an 8-5 kind of team to me, again.

Their defense could make them a tough out. They get Miss State at home and Auburn on the road from the West, Louisville seems unlikely to challenge them. Then there are the two East powers and Tennessee. They could of course get upset by someone else, just as they might upset UF/UGA/Auburn. They get UGA at home late when the weather could be bitterly cold.

Of course, if they win a minor bowl game, they could be 9-4 and get ranked.

8-5 last year got them to #35 in SP+, #36 in Massey composite.

But yeah, looking at their schedule, 7-5 looks right to me. They have six home games that they have no excuse to lose (EMU, Kent State, SC, EIU, Vandy, Mississippi State).

But the other six are road games at Florida, Auburn, Missouri, Tennessee and Louisville, plus Georgia at home.

So they likely need to win a pair of those to get to just 8-4.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 15, 2020, 05:57:38 PM

#27 North Carolina Tar Heels

#3 in ACC

For all of the earlier discussions about coaches circling back on their way down to a stop they made on their way up, Mack Brown is the one success story. While he probably knew that in 2019, he couldn’t get away with the 2-20 start he did last time he was in Chapel Hill, in 1988 and 1989, not reaching a bowl until Year 5. However, I don’t think anybody, least of all me, thought a bowl in Year 1 was a remote possibility. I had them #74 last year. They did have 18 returning starters, and I think what got lost somewhere along the way with Mack Brown not being exciting anymore at Texas, is that the man knows how to build a staff, and knows how to coach guys up. He took largely the same starting group that lost 7 consecutive FBS games to finish 2018, got them to a bowl, and was a failed two point conversion away from upsetting Clemson. I do say largely the same, because one pretty important change was the addition of freshman quarterback Sam Howell, the freshman All-American who led the ACC in passing yardage, and finished second to Trevor Lawrence in passer rating. He has plenty of talented athletes to work with, with the Tar Heels returning multiple All-ACC players at both running back and receiver, and adding Josh Downs, a top 100 recruit who showed out at the All-American Bowl, and has probably the highest upside of any of the skill position players. The offensive line is probably deeper than last year, but lacking the top end talent they had in 2019, losing a pair of NFL Draftees. What lifted this team up from the ACC cellar was the impact Mack Brown had on the defense, namely not only retaining linebackers coach Tommy Thigpen from the prior staff, but elevating him to defensive coordinator, his first coordinating experience. In many ways it was a fortunate set of circumstances that Thigpen was already in place, at his alma mater, having been part of Mack Brown’s first full recruiting class at North Carolina back in 1989. But give Brown credit for elevating Thigpen to coordinator, when he had no previous coordinating experience, better known as an ace recruiter at Auburn, Tennessee and North Carolina, including being named Rivals National Recruiter of the Year in 2014. That resulted in the Tar Heels giving up nearly 11 ppg fewer last year than in 2018, improving from 88th to 55th in the FBS in ypp allowed. While Thigpen rightfully gets plenty of credit for that, perhaps a bigger deal was Chazz Surratt, who not only made the rare position switch from starting quarterback to starting linebacker, but did it at an All-ACC level, leading the team in tackles, sacks and tackles for loss. Even with his limited linebacking experience, he probably could have made the jump to the NFL, but elected to come back for his senior year, where he will be asked to do even more, after North Carolina lost the rest of their strength up the middle in tackle Aaron Crawford and safety Myles Dorn.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Sam Howell, Sophomore
RB	Michael Carter, Senior
WR	Dazz Newsome, Senior
	.
LB	Chazz Surratt, Senior
LB	Jeremiah Gemmel, Junior
S	Myles Wolfolk, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 15, 2020, 07:01:37 PM

I think UNC can make some noise, per their station.

They play Auburn Week 2 (maybe) in Atlanta, and could snag an upset. Their other OOC opponents are pastries. They get VT at home, and nobody else on the schedule is scary. This is a 10-2/11-1 kind of team with a break I think.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on May 15, 2020, 08:58:48 PM

Can anyone say with certainty what a tarheel is?

Is it related to a zip or an ichabod?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 15, 2020, 11:16:51 PM

So a G5 school will be the top team in a state with four P5 teams.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 16, 2020, 12:16:04 AM

They were last year

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 07:29:16 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 15, 2020, 08:58:48 PM

Can anyone say with certainty what a tarheel is?

Is it related to a zip or an ichabod?

They officially are the Rams, like Alabama is the Red Elephants. Supposedly, there was some Rev War battle on the Tar River and the NC contingent "dug their heels" into the river and wouldn't retreat, or something like that, Stonewall, but Tar River.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 10:42:50 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 07:29:16 AM

They officially are the Rams, like Alabama is the Red Elephants. Supposedly, there was some Rev War battle on the Tar River and the NC contingent "dug their heels" into the river and wouldn't retreat, or something like that, Stonewall, but Tar River.

Over the three tours I had at Fort Bragg, I heard several different stories of the origin of the name. That was one of them. A similar one didn't mention the Tar River, just that they dug in their heels as if they were stuck in tar. Another had to do with sailors being called "tars" and North Carolina's pine trees being used to make various shipyard products.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 02:12:54 PM

https://alumni.unc.edu/what-is-a-tar-heel/ (https://alumni.unc.edu/what-is-a-tar-heel/)

Yeah, the story I heard may be wrong, and I was a student there for 4+ years. The official story sounds more plausible. This is their mascot imagery, the ram thing, looking angry.

(https://i.imgur.com/X7cMXLL.png)

Marine School of Infantry is at Camp Geiger (near Lejuene) north of Bragg a ways. Same kind of country, sandy, pine trees, and snakes. Fayettenam is not a very nice town from what I saw.

The Mack Brown has made a quick turn around, which I think is nice for him as he likely will retire fairly soon.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 16, 2020, 02:30:10 PM

#26 Virginia Tech Hokies

#2 in ACC

Justin Fuente’s roster has been turbulent, to say the least, is his short time in Blacksburg, and this offseason has been no exception, with four additions, and 14 subtractions via the transfer portal. So god only knows what the depth looks like, but as far as the starting group goes, there is actually some stability from last year, with 19 returning starters, the 6th most returning production in the nation. The defense, as has frequently been the case at Virginia Tech over the past 25 years, is the strength, returning ten starters (including four all-conference players) from a top third ACC defense a year ago. It was nice to see Bud Foster go out on a solid note, considering what an instrumental role he played in the Hokies’ success under Beamer. Foster had been coaching at Virginia Tech since 1987, as defensive coordinator since 1995, winning the AFCA Defensive Coordinator of the Year Award in 2000, and the Frank Broyles, as the nation’s top assistant, in 2006. He is replaced by a former player, Justin Hamilton, who returned to his alma mater as an analyst in 2018, moving to position coach last year. His only coordinating experience though, came at Virginia-Wise from 2011 to 2013, during their transition from NAIA to NCAA Division II. He inherits a defense with All-American candidates at every level, with cornerback Caleb Farley being the most likely candidate. Rayshard Ashby is the unquestioned leader on this side of the ball, but if there is any question, it’s getting more production from their defensive ends. Their interior line has the potential to be outstanding, a far cry from last year when it looked to be a major problem area with Jarrod Hewitt and a bunch of question marks. The Hokies scored in the JUCO market with DaShawn Crawford, and freshman Josh Fuga redshirted last year, but by all accounts is ready to explode in 2020. That’s a rare thing to write anymore, and even in Blacksburg where two other true freshmen defensive linemen burned their redshirts to contribute. But the coaches wanted to firm up Fuga’s 310 pound frame to make him more than just a space eater. The offense has questions at the places that you might be ok having some questions, the running backs and receivers. Because the line and the quarterback looks set. The Hokies went young on the line last year, starting an entire two deep of underclassmen, all of whom return in 2020. Their overall metrics weren’t great, but they still allowed the fifth fewest sacks in the ACC, and were solid in short down situations. Their bottom 30 run blocking needs to beastly improve with experience. If you had told me Virginia Tech had finished fourth in the ACC in passing yards per attempt and passing efficiency, I would have been shocked, because I couldn’t have named who their starting quarterback was. Hendon Hooker won the job away from Ryan Willis, throwing just 2 interceptions on the year, to 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately for Hokie fans, those two interceptions (along with a fumble that was returned for a touchdown) came in a late loss to Virginia, to end a 15 year winning streak against their rivals, and cost Virginia Tech a trip to the ACC Championship Game. Virginia Tech unexpectedly does need to figure out the other skill positions, after leading rusher Deshawn McClease left early for the NFL, and top receiver Damon Hazelton transferred to Missouri.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Hendon Hooker, Junior
T	Christian Darrisaw, Junior
G	Lecitus Smith, Junior
	.
DT	Jarrod Hewitt, Senior
LB	Rayshard Ashby, Senior
CB	Caleb Farley, Junior

#25 Appalachian State Mountaineers

#1 in Sun Belt

If Appalachian State wants to join the Boise State’s of college football, it needs to prove it can survive a coaching change...again. Eliah Drinkwitz led Appalachian State to the best (FBS adjusted) season in school history, and promptly turned it into a Power Five job at Missouri. Shawn Clark, who played at Appalachian State from 1994-1998, and has been part of the coaching staff since 2016, is next up. Technically he is 1-0, getting credit for the Mountaineers New Orleans Bowl victory, their fifth consecutive bowl victory since stepping up to FBS, joining Marshall (1998-2002) and Louisiana Tech (presently), as the only Group of Five schools to ever collect a bowl winning streak of at least 5. Zac Thomas has proven to be an effective quarterback, but with running back Darrynton Evans departing early for the NFL, he needs to take the next step. His four leading targets return, including Kansas State transfer Corey Sutton, who missed five games, and still led the team in receiving touchdowns. Without Evans’ nearly 3,000 career rushing yards behind him, if Thomas can capitalize on the NFL potential he flashes at time, the Mountaineer offense should be fine. Part of the question is whether Thomas can’t do it, or they don’t need him to. He was fourth in the Sun Belt in pass efficiency. Whether the key to Appalachian State’s run game was the line, or Evans, they’ll have to figure out new pieces either way. Senior center Noah Hannon is the most experienced proven commodity on the line, and the three backs vying to replace Evans had 70 fewer carries last year COMBINED than Evans had. Their combined 6.1 ypc shows promise, and maybe the answer is running back by committee. The defensive line looks to be in fine shape, led by sack leader Demetrius Taylor, but the back eight has some issues, everywhere except cornerback, trying to replace five of eight graduated seniors. Saying cornerback is an exception is a bit of an understatement, as they have a pair back there who could start for most Power Five teams. Shaun Jolly tied for the Sun Belt lead with 5 interceptions, and he keys a secondary that led the Sun Belt in opponents ypa (6.4), interceptions (14), and completion percentage (55.6%), tallying to be the #18 pass efficiency defense in the nation. But aside from that cornerback pair, there are issues. A lot of pressure on the line to not allow teams to the second level, where the tackling will be an issue until proven otherwise, replacing both safeties, and three of four linebackers. The one linebacker they do return, breakout freshman Nick Hampton, who was second among Sun Belt linebackers with 5.5 sacks, will be relied upon to be much more than just a pass rush specialist. Appalachian State has won four consecutive Sun Belt titles, and their closest competition, Louisiana, seems to have some sort of mental block there. They finished ranked for the first time last year. Their next step is their first New Years Six Bowl, the first for the Sun Belt as a whole. The Mountaineers beat North Carolina last year, and took Penn State to overtime in 2018. They’ll get their shot this year, with road games at Wake Forest and then at a likely top 10, if not top 5, Wisconsin, back to back in September. If they can go into Madison and pick up a win, they’ll move into the driver’s seat for that birth.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Zac Thomas, Senior
WR	Thomas Hennigan, Senior
WR	Corey Sutton, Senior
	.
DE	Demetrius Taylor, Senior
LB	D'Marco Jackson, Senior
CB	Shaun Jolly, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 16, 2020, 02:51:45 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on May 11, 2020, 04:04:42 PM

21 P5
6 SEC: 2 East/4 West
6 Big Ten: 3 East/3 West
5 Big 12
2 Pac 12: 1 North/1 South
1 ACC: 1 Atlantic/0 Coastal
1 P5 Independent
4 G5
3 AAC: 2 East/1 West
1 Sunbelt: 1 East/0 West
.
By State
3 Teams: Texas
2 Teams: Alabama, Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Oklahoma
1 Team: California, Georgia, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, N Carolina, Pennsylvania, Oregon, S Carolina, Tennessee, and Wisconsin.

Every 4+ team state still has at least one team remaining.

Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin remain unscathed.

Top 25.

So the ACC Coastal was the first P5 division to be entirety eliminated.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 03:21:52 PM

SEC West should be interesting, I'm not sold on A&M, but they likely will be dangerous and a threat to beat the other 3 top teams. The East should have two top ten teams and nobody else ranked. Florida plays LSU every year and Georgia plays Alabama and Auburn this year. UGA should have a solid defense.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 16, 2020, 03:46:06 PM

What will be the next P5 division to go under? PAC South?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 07:47:20 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 02:12:54 PM

https://alumni.unc.edu/what-is-a-tar-heel/ (https://alumni.unc.edu/what-is-a-tar-heel/)

Yeah, the story I heard may be wrong, and I was a student there for 4+ years. The official story sounds more plausible. This is their mascot imagery, the ram thing, looking angry.

(https://i.imgur.com/X7cMXLL.png)

Marine School of Infantry is at Camp Geiger (near Lejuene) north of Bragg a ways. Same kind of country, sandy, pine trees, and snakes. Fayettenam is not a very nice town from what I saw.

The Mack Brown has made a quick turn around, which I think is nice for him as he likely will retire fairly soon.

The two additional links in the story you linked told many additional versions of the story. Most are highly improbable.
I liked my time in North Carolina. Liked the people. I could have done without having my car covered in yellow pine pollen every spring, but on the whole, I liked it there. Fayetteville was much nicer when I last left in 1993 than it was when I first got there in 1980.
My boss at Ft. Leavenworth was a civilian Ph.D.-type from Virginia. He was extremely proud of being from Virginia and extremely proud of Virginia's role in the Civil War. He referred to North Carolina--situated as it is between Virginia and South Carolina, as "a vale of modesty between two mountains of conceit."
I like all those old-school mascots wearing sailor caps. LSU, Auburn, Missouri, Princeton, and Occidental all shared the same tiger-head design, in different colors and with different initials on the cap. I've seen Cal, UCLA, and Baylor bear-heads in caps, a Texas steer-head in a cap, a Michigan wolverine-head in a cap. Others I can't think of right now, I'm sure.
Maybe the desire to have a mascot wearing a cap is what steered UNC to adopting the ram as its official animal.

(https://i.imgur.com/n9KHwfH.jpg)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2020, 08:11:02 PM

Huskers wear hats, not sailor caps

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 09:20:58 PM

When I lived in Alabama for about 15 months during jr. high school, I had to choose between Alabama and Auburn. One was not allowed to be neutral or indifferent. By the time I had been there two days, I had heard enough Bear Bryant hagiography to make me sick, so I chose Auburn. I had a beautiful dark-blue Auburn pennant, in soft, heavy felt, with "AUBURN" in orange letters and the picture of "Aubie" as seen above.

I forgot to post the pic of the steer in a cap. He seems to be an angry steer. Maybe he's angry because he's no longer a bull. Or maybe he's in pain because he's in the process of becoming a steer.

(https://i.imgur.com/SmGF7Ge.png)

Re Huskers not wearing caps, I don't think there were human mascots depicted as wearing sailor caps. Maybe Navy?

Huskers sometimes wear baseball caps, don't they?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2020, 09:31:43 PM

Huskers sometimes wear caps

husker mascots wear hats

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2020, 09:32:16 PM

steers and queers in Texas

not that there's anything wrong with either of them

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 09:46:15 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 16, 2020, 09:31:43 PM

Huskers sometimes wear caps

husker mascots wear hats

I was thinking of this little feller.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/00/Nulilred.jpg)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on May 16, 2020, 09:55:49 PM

I'd rather not think of that lil feller

not that there's anything wrong with him

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 16, 2020, 10:05:37 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 16, 2020, 03:21:52 PM

SEC West should be interesting, I'm not sold on A&M, but they likely will be dangerous and a threat to beat the other 3 top teams. The East should have two top ten teams and nobody else ranked. Florida plays LSU every year and Georgia plays Alabama and Auburn this year. UGA should have a solid defense.

A&M feels like they'll be raised to the level of being good. Which is to say they'll beat most of the teams they should, lose to most they shouldn't and maybe take one upset/pull one upset on each side (and an upset even seems dicy)

FPI has them as 82.8 percent chance or better to win eight of their games. Which is crazy. Then the other four
65.7 to win at SC (Maybe generous to SC)
37.5 vs LSU in College Station
29.5 at Auburn
13.5 at Bama.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on May 16, 2020, 10:14:47 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 09:46:15 PM

I was thinking of this little feller.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/00/Nulilred.jpg)

Someone stole Bob's Big Boy,damn bugeaters

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 10:18:42 PM

OU used to have a "Little Red." This was back when we still called our team "Big Red."

(https://sanceau.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/kickingbird029.jpg)

He was gone by the time I arrived on campus in 1972. I don't know when "Big Red" went away. Maybe in the '90s, a horrible decade for Sooner football.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 10:21:51 PM

This little guy was our original mascot. Somebody on the 1916-17 "Punitive Expedition" sent into Mexico to capture Pancho Villa found him and brought him back to Norman.

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/nT_COchod_mbscAB3vnAbbMHBcExwJ3u9yKr_KJJ83XlEs88HyKfPb615rJLj0aAD0ULa-B5OycUleYeWPzBlAwP-hQEcrTCUEvFGwpmcz8BC-cd4HeeDNfid-pBYtGe9HewBpUAxotqF78VZw)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on May 16, 2020, 10:22:15 PM

Little Red doesn't look like any Sooner.Looks like someone who would attack a Sooner Schooner

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on May 16, 2020, 10:26:05 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on May 16, 2020, 10:22:15 PM

Little Red doesn't look like any Sooner.Looks like someone who would attack a Sooner Schooner

Yeah, he came up short on thematic consistency as well as cultural sensitivity.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 17, 2020, 02:42:34 AM

NC was the first 4+ team state (7) to get eliminated. But they at least cracked the top 25; albeit with a G5 team.

Of course they did once defeat the Wolverines....

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 17, 2020, 01:12:09 PM

#24 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Independent

The good news is that Ian Book elected to return for his senior year. The third year starter jump started the Irish’s playoff run in 2018, as a sophomore. The bad news is that even with a loaded group of skill position players around him as a junior last year, Book regressed. More was put on his shoulders, attempting over 6.5 more passes per game in 2019 compared to 2018, which resulted in him surpassing the 3,000 yard passing mark, the first Notre Dame quarterback to do that since Everett Golson in 2014. However his completion percentage fell by 8%, and he lost 0.8 ypa. The even worse news is that with running back Tony Jones Jr. and tight end Cole Kmet turning pro early, Book loses his best running back, top two receivers, and starting tight end. The accuracy problems he had last year cannot return. As far as who fills those skill positions slots, it’s anybody’s guess. The leading returning rusher is Jahmir Smith with 187 yards, while Tommy Tremble and his 13 receptions for 158 yards leads all returning players in receptions. Notre Dame’s three highest rated recruits in their 2020 class, including their lone 5-star, tight end Michael Mayer, should be immediate factors. Receiver Jordan Johnson and all purpose back Chris Tyree are the other two. Then you have Northwestern transfer receiver Ben Skowronek, who had 90 receptions for 1,206 yards and 8 touchdowns between 2017 and 2018, and was on a similar pace last year before suffering a season ending injury in his third game. They also hope to get sophomore Kevin Austin Jr. back, after being suspended for the entire 2019 season. To his credit, he stuck with the program, and most Irish insiders say he might have been Notre Dame’s best receiver last year. He missed the end of 2018 as well though, so by the time the season starts it will have been 23 months since his last action. The should benefit from an experienced offensive line, which they have not had the previous two seasons, after seeing a pair of high NFL Draft picks depart. All five starters return, and a couple of the reserves have starting experience. All in all, there are a combined 114 starts among the offensive linemen, which is nearly two full years of starts per position. The line ranked #5 in line yards in 2017, but fell to #106 in 2018, and back up to just #62 last year. This unit has no excuse not to be top 20. He’s not even listed here, but if Notre Dame is going to surprise in 2020, their best defensive player has to be sophomore linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who has easily the highest ceiling of anyone on the roster, certainly of the defense. He started to put it all together at the end of last year, and while the guys listed below had better years, that finish, extrapolated out, gives the Irish an All-American. His versatility is impressive. He can move inside and stop the run, or move out and either defend in coverage or rush the passer. Outside of linebacker and safety, the Notre Dame defense has plenty of questions. On the line, the starting group is serviceable, but depth is a major issue, particularly as much as Notre Dame rotates linemen; and there is a major question mark at cornerback. Neither Tariq Bracy or Shaun Crawford has instilled much confidence in their previous chances, and now it seems likely that is your starting duo. The Irish have been able to rely on a top 4 pass defense in each of the past two seasons, and it appears highly unlikely they’ll scratch that this year.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Ian Book, Senior
T	Liam Eichenberg, Senior
G	Aaron Banks, Junior
	.
DT	Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa, Junior
LB	Drew White, Junior
S	Kyle Hamilton, Sophomore

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 17, 2020, 08:48:23 PM

Suddenly the 4+ team states are dropping like flies.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 18, 2020, 01:21:49 PM

So, Appy State is the top rated team in NC. Fascinating.

Boone is a nice town to visit last I was there.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 18, 2020, 10:36:38 PM

#23 Cincinnati Bearcats

#3 in American

Houston made their “statement” that they were a Group of Five school who was ready to play with the big boys by hiring away a Power Five coach (although its unclear just how hard West Virginia tried to keep him). Cincinnati did their by holding onto their coach in spite of a Power Five offer, something their conference rivals have been unable to do in recent years. In fairness, for a defensive guy, this is probably the roster Luke Fickell has been building toward. The Bearcats led the American last year in scoring defense and were third in total defense, with a unit that only had two senior starters. The secondary had some early issues, but true freshman Ahmad Gardner really helped stabilize things back there, and the Detroit product made all of the Power 5 schools who overlooked him look foolish. In fairness, Indiana, Iowa State, Kentucky and Syracuse all offered, but the kid looks like a budding star. While that back end was often susceptible to surrendering the big play, they made plenty of their own, generating the most interceptions in the conference, and holding opponents to the lowest completion percentage. The only question mark on the defense is the linebacking group, which loses two of three starters, and it’s a hell of a pair to lose, a pair of first team all conference players, including two time first teamer Perry Young. But with the best secondary in the conference, and a rock solid line, anchored in the middle by Elijah Ponder, I’m not overly concerned. So what holds them behind UCF and Memphis? The offense finished in the bottom half of the conference last year, both in scoring and total offense, and I don’t see how they get better, with Michael Warren, who was a lock to finish second in school history in rushing yards, electing to go pro a year early. Desmond Ridder gave the offense a spark when he was inserted as a freshman in 2018, but he regressed substantially last year. His completion percentage dropped from 62.4% to 55.1%; yards per attempt from 7.9 to 6.7, took more sacks, threw fewer touchdowns, but nearly doubled his interceptions. Overall his passer rating fell by 23 points. Probably not the best time to have the highest rated recruit in school history, Evan Prater, the first ever 4-star quarterback recruit to commit to the Bearcats, be enrolling. You know at the first sign of a continuation of 2019 the fans will be ready to hand the job to Prater. And it’s not as though he has a lot of help around him. Aside from Warren, Cincinnati also has to replace four of their five leading receivers, including tight end Josiah Deguara the team’s most reliable target, particularly in the red zone. Fickell turned to the transfer portal, and brought in three Power Five skill position players; running back Jerome Ford from Alabama, receiver Michael Young from Notre Dame, and tight end Noah Davis from Michigan State. The recruiting has never been better, but this defense is too good to waste a year developing those guys. They need a bounceback year from Ridder, and for the transfers to contribute right away.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Desmond Ridder, Junior
RB	Gerrid Doaks, Senior
WR	Alec Pierce, Junior
	.
DT	Elijah Ponder, Senior
CB	Ahmad Gardner, Sophomore
S	Darrick Forrest, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 19, 2020, 12:06:02 AM

Ohio is all but eliminated.

(https://qph.fs.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-9e35a580223bb0c256099a1bcce5333a)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 05:29:01 AM

How long can Fickell resist the Hot Seat at UC? It's kind of a hot seat, or would it be a cold seat?

Presuming UC is a top 25 team, how many conferences would like to have them for a year?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 19, 2020, 09:45:50 AM

#22 Iowa Hawkeyes

#6 in Big Ten

Arguably no school in the country has been hurt more by players leaving early for the NFL Draft over the past two years than Iowa. The Hawkeyes lost another four players last year, after losing three the year before. While seven early entrants is not nearly the most during that time, I would bet that none of the others who lost more recruit at Iowa’s level, and rely on development. I think it robbed them of what could have been a truly special 2019. While I don’t think the full returning roster in 2020 would have been quite as good, it certainly could have been good enough to be hosting Wisconsin in the season finale with the West Division title on the line. Granted back to back road games at Ohio State and Penn State in mid-October are slightly problematic either way. Now, it seems like the Hawkeyes are a full step behind rivals Wisconsin and Minnesota, which is about the least satisfying #3 you can be for an Iowa fan. Figuring out a way to replace Nathan Stanley will go a long way towards closing that gap. While Stanley probably never fully realized his potential, he was always there, starting all 39 games over the past three seasons, appearing in 46 in his career, and throwing more passes than anyone in Iowa football history. Over those three years where Stanley started, Hawkeye backup quarterbacks attempted a combined total of 24 passes. Peyton Mansell and Samson Evans transferring out helps sort out the quarterback room, with sophomore Spencer Petras, who was the #2 last year, probably holding a slight lead. It would be a shame to waste this deep group of receivers with poor quarterback play. The Hawkeyes return their seven leading pass catchers from last year, with All-Big Ten candidate Ihmir Smith-Marsette at the top of the list. The last Hawkeye to play in Iowa City, and go on to play in the NFL was Kevin Kasper, who was a senior in 2000. I’ll bet Smith-Marsette breaks that two decade drought. It goes beyond that though. After producing a pair of first round NFL picks the year prior at tight end, Iowa struggled to replace them, but the emergence of true freshman Sam LaPorta over the final month of the season bodes well for such an important position in this offense. He didn’t appear until the eight game of the season, but had a reception in every game from there out, including six in the Holiday Bowl win over USC. At running back, I’m not sure whether the more puzzling thing is that Toren Young left early for Sundays, or that Brian Ferentz kept him third in usage among the backs, despite having the best efficiency. So the good news is that Iowa returns their two leading rushers, with the downside being they probably lost their best one. Iowa is always fine on the line, and that continues to be the case. They had the best pair of tackles in the Big Ten last year. Alaric Jackson elected to return for his senior year, and even though Tristan Wirfs didn’t, they added former All-Big Ten tackle Coy Cronk as a grad transfer from Indiana. Oh, and they found a freshman center who earned all-conference honors. The defense actually has less certainty than the offense. For most teams I would be worried about the secondary, but Iowa seems to keep finding someone, who was probably a 3* who didn’t play a ton, to just come into their own as a junior. Is that cornerback Matt Hankins this year. Chauncey Golston is developing well on the line, but now has to deal with all of the attention that A.J. Epenesa was dealing with. Iowa has utilized more two linebacker packages the past two years, even as base packages, and with this group, I don’t see the rush to get more of them on the field.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Senior
T	Alaric Jackson, Senior
C	Tyler Linderbaum, Sophomore
	.
DE	Chauncey Golston, Senior
CB	Matt Hankins, Senior
S	Jack Koerner, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 19, 2020, 11:39:49 AM

Gameday at the CyHawk game?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on May 19, 2020, 11:49:42 AM

why not?

no SEC games that weekend?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 19, 2020, 12:00:58 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on May 19, 2020, 11:39:49 AM

Gameday at the CyHawk game?

Two years in a row? That'd be something.

Other options would be Clemson-Louisville, Auburn-UNC, LSU-Texas, Tennessee-Oklahoma, Ohio State-Oregon.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: fezzador on May 19, 2020, 12:01:18 PM

They already had GameDay in Ames last year. They won't have it twice in a row.

It's more likely that GameDay goes to Minneapolis for the Floyd of Rosedale game.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on May 19, 2020, 12:10:17 PM

Quote from: ELA on May 19, 2020, 09:45:50 AM

#22 Iowa Hawkeyes
#6 in Big Ten
Granted back to back road games at Ohio State and Penn State in mid-October are slightly problematic either way.

MUH-WA-HA-HA-HA,don't get mad get even,c'mon kirky and herky get YO ass whippin'

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: fezzador on May 19, 2020, 12:16:48 PM

I thoroughly expect a big fat L in Columbus, but Iowa owes Penn State a beating. Too many near-misses lately.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 19, 2020, 12:24:58 PM

Iowa could have a very good team and a so so record.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 20, 2020, 10:22:09 AM

#21 Iowa State Cyclones

#5 in Big XII

If you asked most Iowa State fans what they’d like to be ranked this year, they’d probably say “one spot above Iowa.” I guess wish granted, although it’s purely a coincidence. Any talk of Matt Campbell using Iowa State as a purely stepping stone position seems to have diminished after both Florida State and Michigan State gauged his interest this offseason, and were rebuked. At one point late in the season, Iowa State looked like easily the best 7-4 team in the country, with the four losses coming by a combined 11 points, with 3 of those losses coming against ranked teams, and 5 of their 6 most recent victories being by double digits. But the Cyclones finished with a 10 point loss at Kansas State, and a blowout loss to Notre Dame in the Camping World Bowl. Was that just one off Saturday on the road on Senior Day, followed by a “whatever” result, giving a “whatever” effort in a “whatever” bowl; or a sign of getting exposed? I’ll bet on their track record, of it being the former. The offense is absolutely loaded at the skill positions, led by quarterback Brock Purdy, who should be 1-2 in some order with Texas’ Sam Ehlinger for preseason All-Big XII quarterback, and may be positioning himself to leave early next year and be a first round pick in the NFL Draft. But the even bigger talent is running back Breece Hall, the true freshman from Kansas, who turned down helmet offers from the likes of Michigan, Nebraska and Tennessee to join the Cyclones. He played only sparingly until being handed the #1 role in mid-October against West Virginia And once given it, he took it over, running for 700 yards over his first six games and 9 touchdowns. He seemed to wear down from the heavy workload over the final two games, which just so happened to coincide with their worst two games of the year. The issue is he’ll have to maneuver his way behind a nearly completely rebuilt offensive line, with only one returning starter. That front did an excellent job a year ago, surrendering the fewest sacks in the conference. At least they have not one, but two all-Big XII tight ends returning. I’m guessing they will both be on the field a good deal of the time, particularly due to the depth questions at receiver. Iowa State loses their top two receivers from last year, but does bring back their big play man in Tarique Milton, who had 722 on an obscene 20.6 yards per reception. Only CeeDee Lamb and JaMarr Chase, who were the consensus top two receivers in the nation, also averaged that many yards with 35 or more receptions. The difference is that Milton had just 35, while Lamb had 62 and Chase had 84. Milton needs to contribute more than 2.9 receptions per game if this passing game is going to work. The defensive strength could be the back, where North Carolina transfer Greg Ross, who got rave reviews from camp, joins Greg Eisworth to form one of the better safety pairs in the country. Like I addressed with TCU (who has a much better pair) I’m not sure you can necessarily build a defense around even an elite pair of safeties. The strength of the front seven looks to be the pass rush, assuming JaQuan Bailey returns to pre-injury form to play opposite Eyioma Uwaurike. The linebackers do a great job joining in that pass rush, contributing to the Big XII’s third best sack rate, but struggle in coverage, and were lacking in sound tackles.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Brock Purdy, Junior
RB	Breece Hall, Sophomore
TE	Charlie Kolar, Junior
	.
DE	Eyioma Uwazurike, Senior
LB	Mike Rose, Junior
S	Greg Eisworth, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 20, 2020, 11:09:37 AM

ELA Top 20 Demographics

6 SEC: 2 East/4 West
5 Big Ten: 3 East/2 West
4 Big 12
2 Pac 12: 1 North/1 South
1 ACC: 1 Atlantic/0 Coastal
2 AAC: 1 East/1 West

By State
3 Teams: Texas
2 Teams: Alabama, Florida and Oklahoma
1 Team: California, Georgia, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, S Carolina, Tennessee and Wisconsin.

Minnesota and Wisconsin remain unscathed. Iowa had been in that camp, but just got each of their testicles removed over the last two picks.

The AAC is still barking with the big dawgs, but will they be able to outlast any of them? Probably not the ACC with big bad Clemson guarding the gate, but maybe the Pac 12? Both of their guards appear to be enfeebled and inebriated.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 11:23:12 AM

With the West Coast on lockdown, the PAC (and MWC) may never play football this year, and could even start to collapse.

Then we will have the Power 4, with the AZ schools, Utah and Colorado headed to the Big 12 (14). The PAC-8 ceases to exist.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 11:32:01 AM

I think USC comes next (assuming they haven't already fallen).

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 20, 2020, 11:54:03 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 11:23:12 AM

With the West Coast on lockdown, the PAC (and MWC) may never play football this year, and could even start to collapse.

Then we will have the Power 4, with the AZ schools, Utah and Colorado headed to the Big 12 (14). The PAC-8 ceases to exist.

Even if the conference collapses, enough of those schools care enough, they'll rebuild. USC, Washington, Oregon, probably WSU and OSU won't give that up. Cal/Stanford/UCLA I could see going either way.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 20, 2020, 01:17:30 PM

Yes, replace the other three California schools with Boise, BYU and Hawaii/UNLV.
Bang! Done.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 21, 2020, 03:52:44 PM

#20 Central Florida Knights

#2 in American

In terms of top end talent UCF is probably still the cream of the AAC crop. But all does not seem entirely right in Orlando, the farther Scott Frost is in the rear view mirror. The Knights’ four year run of recruiting classes in the top 2 in the conference ended with a thud, with the fifth ranked class in 2020. Fourteen players entered the transfer portal, including a number of highly rated recruits that Frost brought in. In a lot of ways this sort of reminds me of Larry Coker riding out Butch Davis’ talent at Miami. Josh Heupel, like Coker, isn’t so over his head to drive the program into the ground, but he’s just going to let the car roll until its momentum finally stops. That means I think they still have enough talent to compete for a league title this year, but I am WAY less confident in their prospects in 2021 and beyond. Remember, this program went from 12-1 with a Fiesta Bowl win in 2013, to 0-12 in 2015 in the very recent history, so their status is far from assured. They also need to stay healthy, because their depth isn’t where Memphis or Cincinnati’s is. That top end talent is better than its given credit for, simply because the Knights are “only” 10-4 in their last 14, going back to the Fiesta Bowl loss to LSU, after winning 25 consecutive prior. But UCF lost three games, on the road, by a combined 7 points, and actually had their highest SP+ rating of the past three seasons. Yes, higher than their national championship* season. The biggest question with the offense is what to do at quarterback. Freshman Dillon Gabriel wrestled the starting job away from Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush, and was very effective, fourth in the AAC in QBR. But he isn’t the transcendent player that McKenzie Milton is...or was…? Milton is going to give it a go after a terrible leg injury in 2018 that caused him to miss all of 2019, and for all we know may still be career ending. But how Heupel plays this might be tricky. 100% of Milton is better than Gabriel, probably even 90% is. But is 80% 75%? And at what point do you tell a kid who means as much to this program as Milton that, while you seem healthy, you simply aren’t our best option anymore. The offensive line was lousy in run blocking last year, so the threat of a Milton/Otis Anderson backfield would help ease that concern some. The defense was outstanding last year, led by a secondary that should be every bit as good, if not better, this year, with all four starters likely to receive all-conference honors. They allowed just 5.9 ypa last year, on 52.4% opponents completion percentage, both numbers being top ten nationally. If they can get any sort of pass rush, they should be an absolute lockdown unit. The problem is they were a middling team at getting after the quarterback last year, with a 6.9% sack rate, and lost Brendon Hayes, easily their best pass rusher, who had more than twice as many sacks as anyone else on the team. Their leading returner in sacks is an interior lineman. Somebody from that linebacking group has to step up and fill that void, most likely Eric Mitchell. He’s a fifth year program guy who is very solid, but not the type of player I would trust to be a premier pass rusher.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Otis Anderson, Senior
WR	Tre Nixon, Senior
G	Cole Schneider, Junior
	.
DT	Kenny Turner, Senior
CB	Aaron Robinson, Senior
S	Richie Grant, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 21, 2020, 08:46:39 PM

The Texlahoma region officially has more than 1/4 of the remaining teams.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on May 22, 2020, 11:23:53 AM

that can't be right

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 01:11:49 PM

Nineteen teams left, so OU and OkSU, I think, and Texas/A&M/Baylor.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on May 22, 2020, 01:33:02 PM

FWIW, here are the two officially approved ways of abbreviating "Oklahoma State."

oSu and fOSU

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 22, 2020, 02:09:06 PM

#19 Baylor Bears

#4 in Big XII

I think you’d find some very confused Baylor fans if you could go back to the end of the 2015 season, coming off their fourth Top 13 finish in five years, with a pair of BCS/New Years Six bowl wins, and two Big XII titles, with a series of explosive offenses that going into 2020 they’d be replacing their departed coach (who isn’t Art Briles), who departed for the NFL after taking the Bears from 1-11 to a top 5 ranking in two seasons, but were replacing him with one of the best defensive coordinators in the country, to help maintain the defensive excellence of the prior year. But that’s where we are. The job Matt Rhule did to salvage the Baylor program which looked headed back to the dumpster they were in prior to Briles’ arrival. He certainly did not leave behind an easy job for Dave Aranda, who has to basically rebuild the Bear defense from scratch following the departure of eight graduated seniors, and a pair of early NFL draft entrants. This following a year where Baylor’s defense was #18 in SP+, highest in school history, only twice ever finishing top 40. They had years under Briles where the offense/defense splits were #2/#100 and #4/#86. How well can Aranda maintain with just one returning starter, and the fourth least returning production in the nation? The one returning starter is leading tackler Terrel Bernard, who seems like more of a product of his surrounding pieces then a guy ready to step up and be the star. He could be flanked by a pair of redshirt freshmen in Matt Jones and Jalen Pitre, who saw limited action last year, but not enough to burn their redshirts. The defensive line gets some instant impact from Arkansas State transfer William Bradley-King, who was first team All-Sun Belt honors last year, and 14.5 sacks over his past two seasons. He might instantly be Baylor’s best defensive linemen, but those are Texas tackles he’s trying to beat now, not Texas State. They’ll have to hope the offense is at least somewhat better, primarily based off of improvement on the offensive line, and a senior quarterback. Last year the offensive line ranked in the bottom 30 of the FBS in sack rate and stuff rate; meaning they couldn’t keep Charlie Brewer upright, and they got pushed backwards far too often on run plays. With four returning starters, including guard Xavier Newman-Johnson, some improvement is expected. As long as the line can actually give Charlie Brewer some time, after allowing the most sacks and the highest sack rate in the Big XII a year ago, he needs to raise his game as a senior, with less help around him after the graduations of JaMychal Hasty and Denzel Mims. Baylor was fortunate that John Lovett, who actually had better numbers than Hasty, even if he didn’t ooze with talent as Hasty did, decided to return for his senior year, to give Baylor one proven running back. And while Mims was the star receiver last year, the Bears might boast a better starting pair this year, in Tyquan Thornton and R.J. Sneed, who combined for 87 receptions, 1219 yards, and 8 touchdowns last year. Brewer’s 7th place finish in the Big XII in Total QBR is largely due to the sacks. He was fourth in pure passer rating, and removing sacks from all quarterbacks, he moves up to third in QBR behind only Jalen Hurts and Sam Ehlinger, ahead of Brock Purdy. Running the show is Larry Fedora, whose tenure at North Carolina, both on and off the field, ended poorly. But remember he ran Mike Gundy’s early outstanding offenses, and within the last decade has been the head coach for the best team in school history at one program (2011 Southern Miss) and the best team in over two decades at another (2015 North Carolina).

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Charlie Brewer, Senior
WR	Tyquan Thornton, Junior
G	Xavier Newman-Johnson, Senior
	.
DE	William Bradley-King, Senior
LB	Terrel Bernard, Junior
CB	Raleigh Texada, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2020, 02:18:34 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 22, 2020, 01:33:02 PM

FWIW, here are the two officially approved ways of abbreviating "Oklahoma State."

oSu and fOSU

The latter is already taken.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on May 22, 2020, 02:29:13 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2020, 02:18:34 PM

The latter is already taken.

:57:

Re #19 Baylor: I wish that Matt Rhule had failed miserably in Waco and that Baylor was now shopping itself around to see which G5 conference would be willing to take a chance on it.
The Earth cannot swallow Baylor University soon enough.
In the words of Leo Tolstoy, "God Knows the Truth, but Waits."

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 22, 2020, 03:42:09 PM

Welp, we're starting to get into the "Contenduh" area of the preseason rankings.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 22, 2020, 10:24:02 PM

It is tOSU, OSU2 and OSU3.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on May 23, 2020, 07:23:57 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 22, 2020, 02:18:34 PM

The latter is already taken.

Knock it off Sconnie!!!

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 23, 2020, 10:06:07 AM

#18 Texas A&M Aggies

#6 in SEC

I was a little too bullish on the Aggies last year, putting them at #4. Even acknowledging that, 2019 was a failure by even the most modest realistic projections for Texas A&M, finishing 7-5, and being largely uncompetitive against the big dogs on their schedule, finishing with a 50-7 loss to LSU in Death Valley. I’ll split the difference this year, and slot them squarely in the rankings, but out of the national or SEC title hunt. RIght off the bat, the schedule is a lot easier, trading Clemson for Colorado as the marquee non-conference opponent, and Georgia for Vanderbilt as the divisional crossover. Plus moving Alabama from early October to late November allows the Aggies to build up some more momentum. It would take a fairly massive upset to be any worse than 6-0 headed to Jordan-Hare on October 17. Survive that one, and Texas A&M really should be rolling into Tuscaloosa at 10-0. All in all, aside from those trips to Auburn and Alabama, plus a home game against LSU to close, Texas A&M’s toughest game is…? At Mississippi State? Avoid upsets, win just one of your big three games, and it’s a 10-2 season, that should calm some of the fans. The skill positions are so deep that five running backs and four receivers entered the transfer portal, and yet that doesn’t even make a ding. One of those is Jashaun Corbin, the starting running back entering the year, who suffered a season ending injury in the second game, opening the door for freshman Isaiah Spiller, who more than seized the opportunity, and Corbin saw the writing on the wall. Granted Corbin’s sample size was small, but Spiller averaged a full yard and a half more per carry. He might not have even been the biggest impact freshman on the offense though, with tight end Jalen Wydermyer taking that honor, with 447 yards, and a team leading six touchdown receptions. While Quartney Davis opted out of his senior year, leading receiver Jhamon Ausbon didn’t, as looks to be one of the SEC’s most dangerous guys on the outside in 2020. Kellen Mond caught tons of flack last year for regressing from his sophomore campaign. The truth is, he didn’t. His yards per attempt were slightly down, but his completion percentage was slightly up. He had a little bit less downfield success, but his touchdown and interception numbers were almost the same as 2018. The problem was it was expected Mond would take a big step forward, and he didn’t. A lot of these quarterbacks enter college so ready to go now, but the flip side to that, is there are less areas for them to improve in. I just don’t think we as fans have allowed our expectations to adjust accordingly. Just because a guy can start as an underclassman, doesn’t mean he automatically has the same trajectory quarterbacks always did. The back seven, particularly the secondary, should be very good, with freshman safety Demani Richardson putting his name on the board of someone to watch this year. That won’t matter if the Aggies continue to be unable to get after quarterbacks. When the best two quarterbacks in the nation played in your division, that meant the secondary, no matter how talented, was toast. They averaged just 2.4 sacks per game, and their best lineman, Justin Madubuike, who led the team with 5.5, departed early. But the positive development was the integration of another freshman, DeMarvin Leal, late in the year. Texas A&M averaged nearly a sack a game more over the final quarter of the season, including 4 in their bowl win over Oklahoma State.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Kellen Mond, Senior
WR	Jhamon Ausbon, Senior
TE	Jalen Wydermyer, Sophomore
	.
LB	Buddy Johnson, Senior
CB	Myles Jones, Senior
S	Demani Richardson, Sophomore

#17 Texas Longhorns

#3 in Big XII

The Longhorns were unable to build upon a Big XII Championship appearance and Sugar Bowl win in 2018, their best season since their 2009 BCS Championship Game loss to Alabama, failing to even return to the conference title game. Tom Herman replaced both coordinators, usually not the move of a coach with a lot of leash left. The Alamo Bowl results against Utah, on both sides of the ball, were very promising. But they were the prior year against Georgia as well, and both time Texas was facing a team that saw their College Football Playoff hopes dashed in their conference title game. They do have a senior quarterback in Sam Ehlinger, who, going into the year, appears to be the best quarterback in the Big XII. He was second in the conference in QBR last year, behind the departed Jalen Hurts. The Longhorns haven’t been able to claim the conference’s top quarterback since Colt McCoy in 2009. They’ve had the worst quarterback play in the league many times since then. He’ll have to find a new go to receiver with the loss of Devin Duvernay and his 106 receptions, third most nationally, and most on the team by 70. His #2, Collin Johnson, is also gone. There is plenty of unproven, highly rated, talent, including Michigan transfer Tarik Black, who was the best receiver on the Wolverines roster...in the rare instance he was healthy. If he’s healthy, which is a big if, he might be the best option. The hope is that they won’t have to pass the ball that often with the running options they have. Keaontay Ingram had a big sophomore year, averaging nearly 6 yards per carry on 144 carries, and pairing him with 5-star true freshman Bijan Robinson, the #1 rated running back recruit in the nation. You mix in the fairly mobile Sam Ehlinger and Tom Herman might actually have flashbacks to his 2014 Ohio State offense when he had both Zeke Elliott and Curtis Samuel to pair in the backfield with J.T. Barrett. He brought in Chris Ash, who he coached with at Ohio State to coordinate the defense, and particularly to fix the secondary. The Longhorns were solid against the run, but lousy everywhere else. Granted Utah didn’t have the most explosive offense in the world, but the way Texas shut them down in the Alamo Bowl, and showed they do have the talent. Nine starters return, but Ash, whose specialty is the secondary, and will also coach the safeties, has to get the pass defense squared away. Texas ranked 9th in the conference in both opponents completion percentage and yards per attempt allowed. LSU seemed to take Texas’ DBU claim (and custom shirts) personally, passing for 471 yards against Texas’ secondary, with three different receivers having over 120 yards. But it’s not like the Tigers were alone, Texas gave up more big passing plays than any team in the country. It’s not as though the pass defense issues were limited to the secondary though, with the Longhorns only generating a 5.31% sack rate, #90 nationally, and only better in the Big XII than Kansas. I’m more optimistic that will be rectified, thanks to linebacker Joseph Ossai, the best player on the defense, and fellow linebacker Ayodele Adeoye, who has the highest ceiling. They need much better play from the line though.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Sam Ehlinger, Senior
T	Samuel Cosmi, Junior
K	Cameron Dicker, Junior
	.
LB	Joseph Ossai, Junior
LB	Ayodele Adeoye, Sophomore
CB	D'Shawn Jamison, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 23, 2020, 10:46:27 AM

Texas went from leading the pack with three teams to entirely eliminated, in only three picks. They were incredibly resilient though, after rounding out half of the ELA Bottom Ten.

I suspect that Baylor is actually the best of the Big Three, seeing as they managed a similar ranking as the big dogs, with neither a helmet nor an SEC bump.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 23, 2020, 12:26:24 PM

So, the SEC is now Auburn, Florida, LSU, Georgia, and Alabama, perhaps in that order .... 5/16ths of the list.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on May 24, 2020, 10:02:23 AM

as usual

they all seem to recruit well

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 24, 2020, 10:53:09 AM

Last year four of the ELA top five were SEC, and the other one was Clemson.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on May 24, 2020, 11:10:50 AM

probably watches too much ESPN

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2020, 11:58:28 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on May 24, 2020, 10:53:09 AM

Last year four of the ELA top five were SEC, and the other one was Clemson.

The final poll was not far from that with four of the top 8.

LSU (15-0)
Clemson (14-1)
Ohio State (13-1)
Georgia (12-2)
Oregon (12-2)
Florida (11-2)
Oklahoma (12-2)
Alabama (11-2)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 24, 2020, 12:03:43 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 24, 2020, 11:58:28 AM

The final poll was not far from that with four of the top 8.

LSU (15-0)
Clemson (14-1)
Ohio State (13-1)
Georgia (12-2)
Oregon (12-2)
Florida (11-2)
Oklahoma (12-2)
Alabama (11-2)

ELA's top 6 was
UGA
UF
A&M
LSU
Bama
Clemson

Shoot, that ain't too bad at all. Granted, A&M did exactly what it's schedule indicated, but most rankings have at least one called shot.

Also, not enough faith in the STARZ next to Fields' name (or in Day, which at the time made more sense)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2020, 12:06:14 PM

I thought Fields would do just fine, but he exceeded my expectations obviously.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on May 24, 2020, 12:18:34 PM

as did Burrow

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 24, 2020, 12:21:06 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 24, 2020, 12:06:14 PM

I thought Fields would do just fine, but he exceeded my expectations obviously.

I thought he would be the best QB in the conference.

He still somewhat exceeded mine.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 24, 2020, 02:58:31 PM

#16 LSU Tigers

#5 in SEC

I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that off the top of my head, this is the farthest I’ve dropped a defending national champion. Granted, I can’t recall any team graduating six senior starters, including the record setting, Heisman Trophy winning quarterback; NINE early NFL Draft entrants; and the passing game coordinator who changed the trajectory of the program and perhaps saved Coach O’s job. Of the 15 players to make Phil Steele’s All-SEC team, the only one who could have left, who didn’t, was safety Ja’Marr Chase. Fortunately for the Tigers, one of the two who couldn’t was receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who won the Biletnikoff Award as a sophomore, leading the nation in receiving yards and touchdowns, setting the SEC record in the later. He cemented his status as the nation’s best receiver with 221 yards in the National Championship. Without the Joes Burrow or Brady, it’s tough to imagine his stock being as high in the 2021 Draft as it would have been were he eligible for the 2020. How close he comes is largely out of his hands. Instead of trying to repeat the success he had in finding a diamond in the rough in 29 year old Joe Brady, Orgeron hired 56 year old Scott Linehan, who has spent the last decade as an NFL offensive coordinator, most recently with Dallas, and hasn’t coached in college since 2001 at Louisville. As for replacing their Heisman Trophy winning quarterback, Myles Brennan looks to get the first crack. He was the #2 last year, and was highly rated coming out of high school. His offer list never matched his ratings, because he weighs under 200 pounds, and can’t move. The arm looks plenty fine, it’s everything else that’s an issue. There’s not a necessarily viable option to push Brennan as the athletic redshirt freshman Peter Parrish, and the strong armed true freshman Max Johnson, with a hell of a name to boot, will fight for the #2 job. Either one could wind up being the starter, but not out of the gate. There is no one obvious answer to replace Clyde Edwards-Helaire at running back, but, per usual, LSU has no shortage of talented options in the backfield. There may be a heavy timeshare back there, rather than one feature back. Right tackle Austin Deculus is the lone returning starter on the offensive line. Maybe by LSU’s lofty standards, the Tiger’s defense was not the greatest of recent vintage, but considering how much more was put on their plate with the pace of the offense, it was better than it got credit for, and still ranked top 30 nationally in ypp allowed, #20 in defensive SP+. DBU certainly lived up to the billing, and should continue to be the strength of the defense, led by Derek Stingley Jr., who might be the best freshman cornerback in college football history. His Consensus All-American selection put him in the rare company of Herschel Walker, Adrian Peterson and Rondale Moore, but as far as I can tell, he’s the first true freshman consensus All-American on the defensive side of the ball, ever. The issue is in front of that secondary there are question marks everywhere, starting at linebacker where all three starters left early for the NFL. Damone Clark saw plenty of action in the rotation last year, but the other two spots are up for grabs. Dave Aranda left to take the head coaching job at Baylor, so the job of figuring out that front seven falls on Bo Pelini, who returns to the job that got him the Nebraska head coaching job back in 2007.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Ja'Marr Chase, Junior
WR	Terrace Marshall Jr., Junior
T	Austin Deculus, Senior
	.
LB	Damone Clark, Junior
CB	Derek Stingley, Jr., Sophomore
S	JaCoby Stevens, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 24, 2020, 03:05:18 PM

I agree with the drop of LSU 15 spots. They could still finish 10-2 without much of a shock and be top ten ranked going into bowls. My guess is they snag an NY6 bowl game and get beat, finishing right around 12th to 15th at 10-3. Burrow was insane last year.

You don't replace a Joe Burrow, unless you get Justin Fields.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 24, 2020, 11:36:22 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on May 20, 2020, 11:09:37 AM

ELA Top 15 Demographics

4 SEC: 2 East/2 West
5 Big Ten: 3 East/2 West
2 Big 12
2 Pac 12: 1 North/1 South
1 ACC: 1 Atlantic/0 Coastal
1 AAC: 0 East/1 West

By State
2 Teams: Alabama and Oklahoma
1 Team: California, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, S Carolina, Tennessee and Wisconsin.

Minnesota and Wisconsin remain unscathed.

The G5 is down to its final team.

Updated: Top 15

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on May 25, 2020, 12:25:14 AM

So who goes out first, Auburn or Oklahoma State? Oklahoma State, I imagine.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 25, 2020, 09:48:35 AM

#15 Memphis Tigers

#1 in American

The fact that the decision to leave Memphis to become the head coach at Florida State was a tough one, is not something any of us could have predicted even a couple years ago. Memphis isn’t just better than Florida State this year, they are substantially better. The Tigers had their best season in school history last year, winning their second conference title in the past 48 years, their first solo title since winning the Missouri Valley in 1969. They got the Group of Five New Years Six auto-bid, to play in the Cotton Bowl, the first major bowl game in program history. While they lost to Penn State, they did prove that this offense can work against anyone, they just need to get the defense up to speed. While Ryan Silverfield can’t prove himself worth until at least 2021, he can certainly prove he’s not the guy for the job if he can’t keep this machine rolling in 2020. Silverfield has 20 years of coaching experience...but is just 39. He opted to take an assistant job, rather than play, while in college at Division III Hampden-Sydney. He spent seven years in the NFL as an offensive line coach with the Vikings and Lions, but his only head coaching experience was one season, in 2004, at a Georgia high school. Maintaining, if not raising, the standard, has been the Memphis standard for a while now. 2010 to 2011 was the last time Memphis had a drop in SP+. That’s two years longer than the next longest streak ever. The one sure thing is a QB/RB/WR combo that rivals any Power Five school, and I honestly might slot in at #2 behind only Clemson. Brady White threw for over 4,000 yards, fourth most nationally, while being efficient. There were four quarterbacks in the nation he threw for at least 3,500 yards, while maintaining a passer rating of at least 165; Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Trevor Lawrence, and Brady White. He gets his top receiver back, in Damonte Coxie, whose 1,276 receiving yards led the conference, but they do have to find some complimentary pieces, with the loss of the next two leading receivers (including Mr. Everything Antonio Gibson, who was the best returner in the conference, averaged 11.2 ypc on 33 rushes, and 735 receiving yards), and all-conference tight end (and first team All-American name) Joey Magnifico. The graduation of running back Patrick Taylor is not that big of a deal, thanks to the emergence of Kenneth Gainwell, who had over 2,100 offensive yards, split between 1,459 rushing yards on over 6 ypc, and 51 receptions. Memphis’ defense, against conference foes, looked plenty fine, a top 40 SP+ defense, behind only UCF in conference play in ypp. But they were too reliant on athleticism, and being able to out-talent most AAC teams. Against Penn State, their lack of size up front (on both sides) was obvious, with the Nittany Lions outgaining Memphis 7.5-1.9 per rush attempt. O’Bryan Goodson best personifies that, as an all-conference performer, who got absolutely abused by Penn State’s line, who loved the opportunity to play against a 280 pound nose tackle. Joseph Dorceus is the one impact player in the front seven, with the ability to play both on the line, and with his hand off the ground. The linebackers might be a problem, but the secondary, which allowed just 7.0 ypa and 57.5% opponents completion percentage, both second best in the AAC, should be even better, with only one graduation out of the two deep. Memphis’ Power Five non-conference game is Purdue, which should be a solid test of whether they can muscle up with that class of athlete, without having to go all the way to Penn State’s level.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Brady White, Senior
RB	Kenneth Gainwell, Sophomore
WR	Damonte Coxie, Senior
	.
DE	Joseph Dorceus, Senior
DT	O'Bryan Goodson, Senior
CB	T.J. Carter, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 25, 2020, 11:53:25 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 24, 2020, 03:05:18 PM

I agree with the drop of LSU 15 spots. They could still finish 10-2 without much of a shock and be top ten ranked going into bowls. My guess is they snag an NY6 bowl game and get beat, finishing right around 12th to 15th at 10-3. Burrow was insane last year.

You don't replace a Joe Burrow, unless you get Justin Fields.

I agree as well. Everything came together perfectly for Orgeron last year, and this time around, minus Burrow and a host of NFL talent, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see LSU as average as 7-5, losing to Texas in week 2 followed by a 1-3 finish leading up to the bowls. Yes, there's still so much talent, but don't forget how inconsistent LSU played in 2017 & 2018 games where they didn't have talent advantage. Lots of penalties and mental mistakes, not to avoid mentioning an offense that stalled out more often than not.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 25, 2020, 12:51:58 PM

Quote from: CatsbyAZ on May 25, 2020, 11:53:25 AM

I agree as well. Everything came together perfectly for Orgeron last year, and this time around, minus Burrow and a host of NFL talent, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see LSU as average as 7-5, losing to Texas in week 2 followed by a 1-3 finish leading up to the bowls. Yes, there's still so much talent, but don't forget how inconsistent LSU played in 2017 & 2018 games where they didn't have talent advantage. Lots of penalties and mental mistakes, not to avoid mentioning an offense that stalled out more often than not.

7-5 would be quite a slip considering how things have gone with old Ed.

Their roster still has five five-stars and 30 four-stars, with three more five-stars and 13-14 more four-stars coming in, plus an All-American grad transfer LB from NDSU. Losing the coordinators is a thing, but they'll at least have some pieces.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 25, 2020, 02:48:11 PM

More than 1/3 of the remaining teams are in the Big Ten.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 25, 2020, 03:01:53 PM

LSU would really be suffering to lose more than four games, AT Florida, Alabama, AT Auburn, AT A&M. They get Texas at home and could lose that one early. They have three pastries OOC. The get South Carolina from the East in BR, and Miss State in BR.

I can see 9-3 as a midpoint, 8-4 possible, 10-2 somewhat possible. If they manage 11-1, Coach O should be COTY or close to it. But then, Joe Burrow was All World last year.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on May 25, 2020, 06:53:07 PM

who's replacing Joe?

I would give Pelini a better chance to suceed than Myles Brennan

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on May 25, 2020, 07:29:55 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on May 25, 2020, 06:53:07 PM

who's replacing Joe?

I would give Pelini a better chance to suceed than Myles Brennan

Scott Linehan, a longtime NFL HC and OC, took over as passing game coordinator. Steve Ensminger technically never stopped being OC. They had two "WR coaches" last year, so the other one just holds the title alone now. (Brady was PGC/WR and kinda shadow OC for context)

No idea what comes with Brennan. He was a good, not elite QB out of HS. He's a fourth-year JR. Will be interesting to watch for sure.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 26, 2020, 11:05:10 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 25, 2020, 03:01:53 PM

LSU would really be suffering to lose more than four games, AT Florida, Alabama, AT Auburn, AT A&M. They get Texas at home and could lose that one early. They have three pastries OOC. The get South Carolina from the East in BR, and Miss State in BR.

I can see 9-3 as a midpoint, 8-4 possible, 10-2 somewhat possible. If they manage 11-1, Coach O should be COTY or close to it. But then, Joe Burrow was All World last year.

Given what we've seen of Orgeron's coaching without Burrow, I'd put the midpoint at 8-4. 1 - 3 Vs Florida, Alabama, Auburn, & A&M. And loss somewhere between Texas or somebody they shouldn't lose to, like the MS schools, as happens with LSU before last season. 8-4 going into a bowl.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 26, 2020, 11:11:37 AM

Auburn strikes me as a team lately ranked pretty high and then has a rather modest season. I'd add A&M to that group. Of course, either or both could prove me wrong this year.

I suspect LSU has the horses to split with that pair.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 26, 2020, 11:24:38 AM

Now that the G5 is gone, I anticipate that the Pac 12 and B1G West will both be next up on the chopping block.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 26, 2020, 10:31:26 PM

#14 Auburn Tigers

#4 in SEC

The marriage of Gus Malzahn and Chad Morris running the Auburn offense, should be interesting, if nothing else. At one point, nearly a decade ago, they may have been viewed as the top two offensive coordinators in the nation. Morris followed Malzahn (with a gap year) as offensive coordinator at Tulsa, and for five days in December of 2011, after Morris signed his extension with Clemson, but before Malzahn took the Arkansas State head coaching job, they were tied for the highest paid assistant coach in the nation. Following Morris’ disastrous two year run at Arkansas, and with Malzahn going 26-23 in SEC games since his 2013 BCS Championship Game appearance, they need each other to salvage their own reputations. One thing Morris has to work with, that he didn’t in Fayetteville, is a quarterback, in true sophomore Bo Nix. Nix had his freshman moments, but considering he was an 18 year old, who faced 7 top 20 teams, his 63.8 QBR is really good. It was better than Missouri’s Kelly Bryant, the most sought after quarterback in last year’s transfer market; or Wake Forest’s Jamie Newman, the most sought after in this year’s. I think the less Malzahn interferes here the better. Morris groomed DeShaun Watson, and while he and Malzahn agree on a lot of formation and pace issues, Morris’ offense suits Nix better, who is plenty mobile, but isn’t going to win with his legs. I expect Nix to take a big step forward as a passer under Morris. That’s just the start of the making of a really talented group of skill position players, with probably the best group of receivers in the SEC. Unless you think Ja’Marr Chase and anybody is the best group. Like Chase, Seth Williams would have been a high draft pick, were he not a true sophomore. Instead he returns to the Plains to headline a deep group with the ultimate possession guy in Eli Stove, and a burner in Anthony Schwartz. Schwartz, who was set to decide between football and track after the season, may end up getting pushed to track now, with the Olympics getting pushed back to 2021. Schwartz set a World Youth record in the 100 meter in 2017, winning silver in the U20 Worlds in 2018, and being named the Gatorade 2018 High School Male Track Athlete of the Year. The timeline now works better for him to run in Tokyo, and it’s certainly easier to continue to train as a runner than a football player during this. The running back room is also deep, but leading rusher JaTarvious Whitlow put his name in the transfer portal. He hasn’t picked a destination, so there is still a chance he could return, but it seems unlikely. How much room those guys have to operate depends on how four new bodies on the offensive line gel around returning starting center Nick Brahms. The line was solid in pass blocking, but struggled to create running room. Taking a grad transfer from Akron, the worst rushing team in the nation, doesn’t give me much confidence that the staff has confidence in the guys coming back. The defense is going to have to lean heavily on a stellar group of linebackers, after heavy losses along the line and secondary, each of which only returns one starter. If Big Kat Bryant can finally put it all together, that will help a lot on the line, where the Tigers seem to always have someone ready to step up. Losing both cornerbacks probably hurts more than losing the nation’s best defensive lineman, in Derrick Brown.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Bo Nix, Sophomore
WR	Seth Williams, Junior
C	Nick Brahms, Junior
	.
LB	K.J. Britt, Junior
LB	Zakoby McClain, Junior
S	Christian Tutt, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 26, 2020, 10:44:28 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 25, 2020, 12:25:14 AM

So who goes out first, Auburn or Oklahoma State? Oklahoma State, I imagine.

Nope.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on May 27, 2020, 01:46:04 AM

Learn something new every day.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 27, 2020, 07:15:56 AM

So, the SEC is down to three teams, eh? I might give the edge to LSU over Auburn on talent, maybe, but this is close enough, I think.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 27, 2020, 02:06:09 PM

Quote from: ELA on May 26, 2020, 10:31:26 PM

#14 Auburn Tigers
#4 in SEC

Good write up ELA. Nix seems to me in the type of situation warranting one of those big sophomore slumps, which, in the case of Malzahn is common. Probably the biggest on-going disappointment of an otherwise steady Malzahn era is the lack of QB development. Stidham never got better. Neither did Greg Marshall. Or Sean White. Of course, maybe Chad Morris will trend this the other way, but don't count on it right away.

Having a lot of Auburn friends these days, they strike me as one of the only southern fan bases with reasonable expectations. They are mostly satisfied with going 9-4 as long as they take down any one of Alabama, Georgia, or LSU every year, which they do. If you go back through Auburn's W/L record under Malzahn it's mostly 8-5 & 9-4 seasons, but thanks to the boost of difficult SEC scheduling those 8-5/9-4 seasons are also Sugar Bowl or Peach Bowl NY6 seasons. Biggest complaint I hear about Malzahn is that he's overpaid.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 27, 2020, 02:22:24 PM

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/auburn/index.html (https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/auburn/index.html)

If they are preseason top ten, they don't end up there.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 27, 2020, 07:48:04 PM

#13 Michigan Wolverines

#5 in Big Ten

For Michigan there is no measure of success other than beating Ohio State, to reach Indianapolis. Harbaugh has flipped the Michigan State rivalry back, and avoided bad losses. But I think we’ve reached a point where Michigan either gets past the Buckeyes, or they don’t. 7-5 and a Holiday Bowl probably feels about the same as 10-2 and a Citrus Bowl to Wolverines fans at this point. The problem is, over the past four seasons, the years Michigan I think has had the better team (2016 and 2018), they had to go to Columbus, and they got home games in the years they were clearly inferior. Problem this year is Ohio State is both better, and at home. I think that flips next year, but in May of 2020 the last thing Michigan fans want to hear is “wait til November 2021”. The offense should be interesting, with coordinator Josh Gattis with a full year under his belt. All of the reports are that the starting quarterback is a battle between Dylan McCaffrey and Joe Milton, but I think everyone would be shocked if it’s anyone but McCaffrey. Shea Patterson regressed during his time in Ann Arbor, and some fresh blood back there should be good. Obviously the strength of the offense is the running backs, bolstered by the return of Chris Evans after missing all of 2019 with academic issues. The speedster joins the workhorse Zach Charbonnet, and Hassan Haskins, the breakout surprise of the 2019 offense. The Wolverines ran the ball only the 9th most frequently in the Big Ten last year. I think that needs to be up in the top four, depending on the offensive line play. And as obviously as the running backs are the strength of the offense, the line is the weakness. They have to break in four new starters, although when the one returning starter, Jalen Mayfield, is projected to possibly be the first tackle off the board in the 2021 NFL Draft, weakness is relative. While on paper Michigan should have had the best receivers in the conference last year, Donovan Peoples-Jones never learned how to run a route, and Tarik Black couldn’t stay healthy. I think their departure may actually lead to a better overall group. The more you get the ball into the hands of Giles Jackson, the better. The defensive line might lack the depth they had a couple years ago, but the starting four might be the best Don Brown has had to work with. Don Brown’s lines usually benefit from the constantly blitzing linebackers, but that might not necessarily be the case as much this year, so it’s a good year to have a group up front that should be able to get so much done on their own. Cam McGrone showed a lot of potential last year as a redshirt freshman, but also made some critical freshman mistakes. He better grow up in a hurry, because he’s just about the only certainty for Michigan at that level. Much like the line, the secondary has some really high top end players, but some questions behind them. Cornerback Ambry Thomas has always been underappreciated by the media, under Jeremy Clark, David Long and Lavert Hill. I think Thomas is better than all those guys, and now has a chance to show it. Daxton Hill showed right away as a true freshman why Alabama tried so hard to flip him. Depending on what you consider Jabrill Peppers to be, Hill is on a trajectory to be the best safety Michigan has had since Corwin Brown.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Zach Charbonnet, Sophomore
WR	Nico Collins, Senior
TE	Nick Eubanks, Senior
	.
DE	Kwity Paye, Senior
DT	Carlo Kemp, Senior
CB	Ambry Thomas, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Mdot21 on May 27, 2020, 08:37:39 PM

Quote from: ELA on May 27, 2020, 07:48:04 PM

#13 Michigan Wolverines
#5 in Big Ten
For Michigan there is no measure of success other than beating Ohio State, to reach Indianapolis. Harbaugh has flipped the Michigan State rivalry back, and avoided bad losses. But I think we’ve reached a point where Michigan either gets past the Buckeyes, or they don’t. 7-5 and a Holiday Bowl probably feels about the same as 10-2 and a Citrus Bowl to Wolverines fans at this point. The problem is, over the past four seasons, the years Michigan I think has had the better team (2016 and 2018), they had to go to Columbus, and they got home games in the years they were clearly inferior. Problem this year is Ohio State is both better, and at home. I think that flips next year, but in May of 2020 the last thing Michigan fans want to hear is “wait til November 2021”. The offense should be interesting, with coordinator Josh Gattis with a full year under his belt. All of the reports are that the starting quarterback is a battle between Dylan McCaffrey and Joe Milton, but I think everyone would be shocked if it’s anyone but McCaffrey. Shea Patterson regressed during his time in Ann Arbor, and some fresh blood back there should be good. Obviously the strength of the offense is the running backs, bolstered by the return of Chris Evans after missing all of 2019 with academic issues. The speedster joins the workhorse Zach Charbonnet, and Hassan Haskins, the breakout surprise of the 2019 offense. The Wolverines ran the ball only the 9th most frequently in the Big Ten last year. I think that needs to be up in the top four, depending on the offensive line play. And as obviously as the running backs are the strength of the offense, the line is the weakness. They have to break in four new starters, although when the one returning starter, Jalen Mayfield, is projected to possibly be the first tackle off the board in the 2021 NFL Draft, weakness is relative. While on paper Michigan should have had the best receivers in the conference last year, Donovan Peoples-Jones never learned how to run a route, and Tarik Black couldn’t stay healthy. I think their departure may actually lead to a better overall group. The more you get the ball into the hands of Giles Jackson, the better. The defensive line might lack the depth they had a couple years ago, but the starting four might be the best Don Brown has had to work with. Don Brown’s lines usually benefit from the constantly blitzing linebackers, but that might not necessarily be the case as much this year, so it’s a good year to have a group up front that should be able to get so much done on their own. Cam McGrone showed a lot of potential last year as a redshirt freshman, but also made some critical freshman mistakes. He better grow up in a hurry, because he’s just about the only certainty for Michigan at that level. Much like the line, the secondary has some really high top end players, but some questions behind them. Cornerback Ambry Thomas has always been underappreciated by the media, under Jeremy Clark, David Long and Lavert Hill. I think Thomas is better than all those guys, and now has a chance to show it. Daxton Hill showed right away as a true freshman why Alabama tried so hard to flip him. Depending on what you consider Jabrill Peppers to be, Hill is on a trajectory to be the best safety Michigan has had since Corwin Brown.

KEY PLAYERS
RB Zach Charbonnet, Sophomore
WR Nico Collins, Senior
TE Nick Eubanks, Senior
.
DE Kwity Paye, Senior
DT Carlo Kemp, Senior
CB Ambry Thomas, Senior

Nice write up. Pretty much agree with everything word for word. Agree 100% on Ambry Thomas. He is better than all those guys and he’s got a shot to be a 1st rd pick if he takes another jump in year 2 as a starter. He will torch the combine in the 40 and the shuttle- and he’s a legitimate 6 ft- so as long as he has the kind of season he’s capable of 1st rd isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Dax Hill flashed special ability as a true frosh. He’s my pick for breakout player on defense in 2020.

Michigan is a weird team. Could see them going 8-4 or 11-1. Solid base on defense but lots of question marks on offense, particularly replacing 4 OL starters and the QB.

Like you I’d be shocked if McCaffrey isn’t the guy to start out at least. If he struggles wouldn’t be shocked to see them give Milton a shot. His raw ability is super enticing. Harbaugh however is 1000000% not the guy to develop that ability. Lincoln Riley or Ryan Day with a kid with Milton’s talents? Now you might have something there.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 28, 2020, 01:03:59 AM

When was the last time that the Wolverines didn't crack the ELA Top Ten? :o

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CatsbyAZ on May 28, 2020, 11:04:50 AM

Quote from: ELA on May 27, 2020, 07:48:04 PM

#13 Michigan Wolverines
#5 in Big Ten
All of the reports are that the starting quarterback is a battle between Dylan McCaffrey and Joe Milton, but I think everyone would be shocked if it’s anyone but McCaffrey.

How much playing time has Milton seen? I know McCaffrey's hit the field, and that experience alone should put him behind center @ Washington in the opener. After Washington Michigan plays two cupcakes before facing a pretty dang hard schedule.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 12:00:40 PM

The comment about how Michigan would realistically be 11-1 or 8-4 with the same quality team seems accurate. Assuming no huge upsets, their schedule is:

@ Waskington
Wisconsin
Penn State
@ Minnesota
@ Ohio State

@ MSU could be dicey.

Any top 10-15 team could finish 8-4 with that slate even if ranked properly. A 10-2 finish would suggest to me they are top ten easily, maybe top 6.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 28, 2020, 12:14:43 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on May 28, 2020, 01:03:59 AM

When was the last time that the Wolverines didn't crack the ELA Top Ten? :o

#11 in 2018

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 28, 2020, 02:22:14 PM

#12 USC Trojans

#2 in Pac 12

Clay Helton likely got another year out of fear of a mass exodus from what appears to be USC’s best roster in a long while. Granted, that also means if he can’t win big with this group, when can he? Kedon Slovis fell into starting quarterback job due to injuries, but was so impressive, winning Pac 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year, that he sent not one, not two, but three quarterbacks running to the transfer portal. He has a plethora of receivers to work with, even with the graduation of Michael Pittman. Tyler Vaughns passing on the NFL Draft to return for his senior year is just icing on the cake. The offensive line needs to get a lot better, and starting left tackle Austin Jackson declaring early won’t help things there. The Trojans gave up the fourth most sacks in the conference, and averaged under 4 ypc on the ground. They ranked #100 in the FBS in line yards. That, combined with injuries at the running back position, that led to Amon-Ra St. Brown, the team’s best receiver, being given carries, led to a very unbalanced offense. Really though, that’s nit picky, because the USC passing game was so good. If the offense can just maintain their 2019 levels, that should be enough, if the defense can simply not underperform. There is way too much talent even in down years for USC to be consistently finishing in the bottom half of the Pac 12 on defense, as they have in each of the last five years. Clancy Pendergast, who had been coordinator for the last four of those seasons is out, and former Texas coordinator Todd Orlando is in. Considering how bad Texas’ defense was under Orlando, that’s a curious choice. It might just be a case of needing a fresh voice though, because the talent is there. There are nine returning starters, including 5 all-conference players, led by an elite defensive line. Drake Jackson was an instant impact player getting after the quarterback, playing an end/linebacker hybrid. The next step in his development is taking on more responsibilities, and becoming an every down player. If he can take that step, with Jay Tufele on the inside, this could be one of the best lines in the nation. Incoming freshman Gary Bryant Jr. figures to give a jolt to a return game that struggled last year, finishing 11th in the Pac 12 in return yardage. In his senior year, teams tried to just kick the ball out of bounds, rather than punt to Bryant. 4 times the opponent failed to do that...and he returned 3 of them for touchdowns, averaging 59.8 yards on his four returns. The secondary looks fine at the safety position, as USC always is, but cornerback will likely depend on the performance of Florida transfer Chris Steele, particularly with Isaac Taylor-Stuart still not cleared to practice, and may not be 100% by September either way. The Clay Helton era got started off well enough, but the Trojans have finished unranked now in each of the last two seasons. Since World War II, exactly two coaches have finished unranked three straight years; Jeff Cravath from 1948-50 and Paul Hackett from 1998-2000. Neither one got Year 4.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Kedon Slovis, Sophomore
WR	Amon-Ra St. Brown, Junior
G	Alijah Vera-Tucker, Junior
	.
DE	Drake Jackson, Sophomore
DT	Jay Tufele, Senior
S	Talanoa Hufanga, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 02:34:29 PM

So, the USC-Bama game, if played, should be worth watching.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 04:05:14 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 02:34:29 PM

So, the USC-Bama game, if played, should be worth watching.

No it won’t. Bama gonna roll them.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 29, 2020, 08:43:01 AM

#11 Alabama Crimson Tide

#3 in SEC

Will this end up being too low? Probably. I think this is the first time I’ve had Alabama outside my top 5, let alone my top 10, since 2008. That team wound up going 12-0, and losing to eventual national champion Florida in the SEC Championship Game. Alabama loses talent to the NFL every year, so it’s not only that, it’s the amount of offensive NFL talent they lost, to pair with a defense that really struggled against better competition last year. In the past, even in the years where the skill position talent was a tick down, you could always count on the defense to be stifling. The Crimson Tide hadn’t allowed 46 points in a game since 2003. They did twice in a month last year. Going back to the end of 2018, they’ve had 28 points scored on them 7 times in the past 16 games. As many as in the previous 5 years combined. Sounds like a harsh start, but I’m still nervous putting them this low, it’s still Alabama. There is still plenty of talent. I’m just worried that the defense won’t be much better than last year, and the offense might not be elite enough to bail them out. Now don’t worry, the offense should still be plenty good, because of the guys who did decide to return for their senior year, leading rusher Najee Harris, and wideout DeVonta Smith, who should be in for a monster year with both Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs gone. Mac Jones is no Tua, but he played well enough down the stretch last year. You can’t totally fault him for the Auburn loss, he threw for over 300 yards, 4 touchdowns, and Alabama scored 45 points, the most the program has ever scored in a loss. But he also threw two pick sixes, a not insignificant reason that 45 wasn’t enough. The door is open wide enough that incoming Bryce Young is getting plenty of talk, despite Nick Saban being reluctant to insert true freshmen into that starting quarterback role...National Title games aside. Although Sban has actually never brought a quarterback to Tuscaloosa rated as highly as Young. The last time Alabama landed the composite #1 quarterback recruit? 2001 with Brodie Croyle. They will also benefit from an offensive line that returns multiple all-SEC performers, albeit from a group that underperformed last year, by their lofty standards. They ranked outside the top 20 for the first time since FootballOutsiders began tracking line yards in 2014, only ranking outside the top 6 one other time. But this all comes back to the defense, whose numbers still looked ok overall, because of their ability to shut down inferior opponents, but who failed too often in big games, and have to replace all five of their All-SEC players from a year ago. It was the worst Tide defense, by ypp, in seven years, but in fairness, the way Alabama played offense put more staring on their defense than most Saban defenses faced. Any hope of improvement begins with the two injured starting linebackers, Dylan Moses and Joshua McMillon, returning at 100%, after both missed all of last season with injuries. But the line, and the secondary, aside from Patrick Surtain Jr., are massive question marks (again Alabama standard caveat). The best pass rushers on the Crimson Tide, may come from their freshman class, in Will Anderson and Chris Braswell, the #1 and #2 rated defensive ends in the nation.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Najee Harris, Senior
WR	DeVonta Smith, Senior
T	Alex Leatherwood, Senior
	.
LB	Shane Lee, Sophomore
LB	Christian Harris, Sophomore
CB	Patrick Surtain II, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 29, 2020, 09:55:24 AM

ELA Top Ten demographics:

By Conference
4 Big Ten: 2 East/2 West
2 Big 12
2 SEC: 2 East/0 West
1 Pac 12: 1 North/0 South
1 ACC: 1 Atlantic/0 Coastal
.
By State
2 Teams: Oklahoma
1 Team: Florida, Georgia, Minnesota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, S Carolina and Wisconsin.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 11:27:26 AM

Kind of a change to see two East teams and no West teams in the SEC in this ranking.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 29, 2020, 11:33:37 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on May 25, 2020, 12:25:14 AM

So who goes out first, Auburn or Oklahoma State? Oklahoma State, I imagine.

OSU2 has outlasted Auburn and Bama.

Could they also beat out your Sooners?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 29, 2020, 11:38:42 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 28, 2020, 12:00:40 PM

The comment about how Michigan would realistically be 11-1 or 8-4 with the same quality team seems accurate. Assuming no huge upsets, their schedule is:

@ Waskington
Wisconsin
Penn State
@ Minnesota
@ Ohio State

@ MSU could be dicey.

Any top 10-15 team could finish 8-4 with that slate even if ranked properly. A 10-2 finish would suggest to me they are top ten easily, maybe top 6.

Michigan has an absolutely brutal schedule. Geez.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 29, 2020, 11:43:43 AM

Looks like their usual schedule, only with UDub instead of Notre Dame.

Wisconsin is their fixed crossover, and they have won 41 of the last 45 with the Little Brown Jug on the line.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 11:47:04 AM

Normally, catching Minnesota could be viewed as a break, but not so much today. Getting Wisconsin and PSU at home is a bit of a break. I guess getting OSU on the road could be considered a break in the sense it means someone else will be at home this time around.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on May 29, 2020, 01:56:57 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on May 29, 2020, 11:33:37 AM

OSU2 has outlasted Auburn and Bama.

Could they also beat out your Sooners?

Not in my world! :)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 02:54:32 PM

I musing about who would be favored in a matchup on a neutral field between Alabama and ANYONE ranked above them other than perhaps Clemson and Ohio State. I think UGA is an early 7 point dog at Bama later in September.

I think it would be kinda neat to have a ranking based solely on "the odds".

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 29, 2020, 03:49:09 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 02:54:32 PM

I musing about who would be favored in a matchup on a neutral field between Alabama and ANYONE ranked above them other than perhaps Clemson and Ohio State. I think UGA is an early 7 point dog at Bama later in September.

I think it would be kinda neat to have a ranking based solely on "the odds".

FPI has them #3 behind Clemson and Ohio State. SP+ has them #1.

So yeah, at most two. I'm thinking they'd probably be favored over OSU though.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 04:30:34 PM

Quote from: ELA on May 29, 2020, 03:49:09 PM

FPI has them #3 behind Clemson and Ohio State. SP+ has them #1.

So yeah, at most two. I'm thinking they'd probably be favored over OSU though.

Yeah, I don't see it. I think Clemson is the only team I'd favor over Ohio State.

Not a big believer in Mac Jones and Bryce Young is even smaller than Kyler Murray and he's a true freshman. And he played on a super team in HS at Mater Dei- so who knows how good he even really is. Justin Fields is only going to get better in year 2 of that offense- and he was stupid good last year.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 29, 2020, 04:41:29 PM

Hey, I'm not arguing with you, I have them behind Minnesota!

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 04:53:32 PM

I thought Ohio State was really really really good all last year, and they obviously were on a par with Clemson. LSU turned out to be much better than I thought they were earlier, Burreaux was the reason. Those three teams were the obviously upper crust elite teams, and still are except LSU lost too much I suspect. I'm hard pressed not to have Bama lingering in their stead, but that could well be Sabanitis, which is a variation on Helmetitis.

If UGA gets exceptional QB play, I'd put them close to elite. Their D should be elite. My guess is the AP poll will be Clemson Ohio State Bama Georgia Oklahoma ... which means little of course.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Mdot21 on May 29, 2020, 05:28:47 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 29, 2020, 04:53:32 PM

I thought Ohio State was really really really good all last year, and they obviously were on a par with Clemson. LSU turned out to be much better than I thought they were earlier, Burreaux was the reason. Those three teams were the obviously upper crust elite teams, and still are except LSU lost too much I suspect. I'm hard pressed not to have Bama lingering in their stead, but that could well be Sabanitis, which is a variation on Helmetitis.

If UGA gets exceptional QB play, I'd put them close to elite. Their D should be elite. My guess is the AP poll will be Clemson Ohio State Bama Georgia Oklahoma ... which means little of course.

LSU will probably have a major drop off. They lost the OC Joe Brady to the NFL and they lost arguably the greatest college QB any of us have ever seen. Burrow completed 76.3% of his passes for 5,671 yards and 60 TD's vs only 6 INT's. He also ran for 5 TD's. You aren't replacing that OC and that QB and getting better. Just isn't happening.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 29, 2020, 11:00:56 PM

Which P5 Conference will have the worst best team?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2020, 07:00:43 AM

Pac.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 30, 2020, 10:02:48 AM

#10 Minnesota Golden Gophers

#4 in Big Ten

I’m not even going to bother looking it up. This has to be the highest I’ve ever had the Gophers...comfortably. And hey, why not, Minnesota returns 9 starters, the 13th most production in the nation, from a group that finished second to Ohio State in ypp. This Gopher offense is a far cry from what we have become used to. Even the two losses, running back Rodney Smith and receiver Tyler Johnson, the team’s leading rusher and receiver, are not as big a loss as they might be for most teams. Mohamed Ibrahim was among the top backs in the conference once he seized the starting job over the second half of 2018, he was just too often not the hot hand last year in the three running back rotation, at least in the eyes of the staff. His 5.3 ypc was actually better than Smith’s 5.1, and he only had 1 carry all year (out of 114) where he failed to at least get back to the line of scrimmage. The problem is not the top end, it’s losing 2/3 of their running back rotation from an offense that ran the ball 61.2% of the time, 15th most nationally. There are no obvious answers as who can fill out at least a two man rotation. Maybe an improved passing game is the answer. While Tyler Johnson was the team’s leading receiver, Minnesota boasted BOTH first team All-Big Ten receivers, and the ceiling for the returning Rashod Bateman is way higher, who Mel Kiper has as the #8 overall prospect in the 2021 Draft, the top receiver. Minnesota hasn’t had a first round pick since Laurence Maroney in 2006, and Bateman seems a lock to break that, and could be the highest pick for the school since Carl Eller went #6 in 1964, their last top 12 pick. Kirk Ciarocca deserved more mention for the work he did with this offense last year. Penn State was so sick of watching receivers running wide open 20 yards downfield against them, that they hired him away. The job is now up to Mike Sanford Jr., who ascended to a head coaching job at Western Kentucky too quickly, but had a solid record, albeit a short one, prior to that. And he was the coordinator last year at Utah State, also working with the quarterbacks, where Jordan Love was a first round pick in the Draft this year. Love entered the year as a fairly highly thought of prospect, but Gopher fans hopes he can produce a second high NFL quarterback pick in Tanner Morgan. Morgan completed 66% of his passes last year, led the Big Ten in passing yards per game, and was second to only Justin Fields in touchdown passes and passer rating. As mentioned earlier, they didn’t ask Morgan to throw the ball a ton, but when he did, it was to go downfield, which is why that completion percentage is so impressive. The Gopher passing attack was not based on simply taking what the defense gave them. The Gophers’ 15.7 yards per completion was 6th highest in the country (behind Oklahoma, Louisville and the three military academies) the highest for any Big Ten team in the last four years. The problem is on defense, particularly the front seven which is a near total rebuild. The early (sort of, he’s like 42 but with eligibility remaining) departure of Antoine Winfield Jr. turns what could have been the best secondary in the conference into merely a good one, led by a really underrated pair of cornerbacks. How that front develops will determine whether this is just another good Minnesota team, or whether they can break through Wisconsin, get to Indianapolis, and maybe play in a New Years Six Bowl, for the first time since the 1962 Rose Bowl. Either way, P.J. Fleck, who currently has the #9 recruiting class in the country, seems to have things trending in the right direction.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Tanner Morgan, Junior
WR	Rashod Bateman, Junior
G	Blaise Andries, Junior
	.
CB	Coney Durr, Senior
CB	Benjamin St. Juste, Senior
S	Jordan Howden, Junior

#9 Oklahoma State Cowboys

#2 in Big XII

The story of the 2019 offseason, insofar as it impacts 2020 is the number of skill position players who will be returning this year. While many were first and second year players who had to, I can’t remember this many running backs who could have gone pro, who didn’t. That’s typically the one position I say, you should go, if you are projected to be no better than a third or fourth round pick. The fact that Chuba Hubbard is not even the best running back to postpone his NFL eligibility is shocking. Perhaps even more shocking, is that he wasn’t the only Poke to postpone his pro career, as receivers Tylan Wallace and Dillon Stoner, who both earned All-Big XII honors, and combined for 105 receptions, 1502 yards, and 13 touchdowns, also returned. Wallace, particularly, is a surprise, after missing the end of last season with a torn ACL. They join All-Big XII tight end Jelani Woods, and quarterback Spencer Saunders, who got the starting nod as a freshman, in what is probably the most talented offensive skill position collection on paper outside of Clemson. The only issue may be depth, a year after losing Saunders and Wallace to injury, due to a reserve running back, tight end, and four receivers transferring out. The line is bolstered by the addition of West Virginia transfer Josh Sills, who was All-Big XII in 2018, but missed 2019 with an injury. Oklahoma State has had offenses that were plenty talented before though. They’ll score enough points to potentially beat every team on their schedule, including Oklahoma and Texas. Finally passing the Sooners, and winning their first conference title since 2011, their third since 1953, depends on their defense, and for the first time during the Mike Gundy era, the Cowboys might be up to the task. The Cowboys had the #53 SP+ defense last year. Their 2020 projections have them #38. That would have been enough plenty of times in the Mike Gundy era, and with 10 starters returning, 8th most production nationally, most in the Big XII, it doesn’t necessarily seem like a reach. The back seven, particularly, looks to be strong, and that’s the biggest part of the battle, but the line has to improve. Overall their metrics looked solid, but the two areas they were worst in were passing down line yards (#90 in FBS) and power success rate (#92). Typically that kind of showing, being bad on obvious passing downs and short down situations would suggest a team that struggled to get off the field on 3rd and 4th downs. But that wasn’t the case at all, finishing middle of the pack in 3rd down defense, and best in the Big XII in 4th down defense, the only unit with a better than 60% success rate. If you are looking for regression, it might come from there. When your base defense features just two linebackers, and both guys received All-Big XII honors, that figures to be the strength. The secondary looks fine at safety, but could use a cornerback to step up, a year after being the lone conference team with multiple pick sixes. Four of the first six games are at home, with the road trips being to TCU and Kansas. So there is a very good chance that Oklahoma State could be 6-0 heading to Norman for Bedlam.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Chuba Hubbard, Junior
WR	Tylan Wallace, Senior
WR	Dillon Stoner, Senior
	.
LB	Amen Ogbongbemiga, Senior
LB	Malcolm Rodriguez, Senior
S	Kolby Harvell-Peel, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2020, 10:07:44 AM

My Dawgs break into the Top Ten again with ELA, maybe even top 5.

It's not even June, this seems early but appreciated of course.

I had not had Oklahoma State on my radar, and had a notion Minnesota would drop back because ....

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 30, 2020, 10:17:38 AM

Now the Pac 12, ACC and Big 12 are each down to one team, along with every remaining state.

Can OSU2's big brother outlast OSU3's?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on May 30, 2020, 11:01:31 AM

Clemson Washington Oklahoma Ohio State Wisconsin Georgia Florida USF?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 30, 2020, 11:02:35 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 30, 2020, 10:07:44 AM

It's not even June, this seems early but appreciated of course.

It's about right. Actually the first year I did it (2005) I timed it to be done before I headed across the pond to start my internship, which was like May 10?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 30, 2020, 11:03:11 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 30, 2020, 11:01:31 AM

Clemson Washington Oklahoma Ohio State Wisconsin Georgia Florida ~~USF~~?

Oregon

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on May 31, 2020, 04:44:33 PM

#8 Oregon Ducks

#1 in Pac 12

Yeah, Oregon lost a top 10 NFL pick quarterback. No, I don’t think it’s that big of a deal. Yes, Justin Herbert’s measurables were great, and his numbers were plenty good too. He was #21 in the nation in Total QBR. That’s good, but it also means Ohio and Indiana lost higher rated quarterbacks, in Nathan Rourke and Payton Ramsey. The Ducks also lost offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo, who left to take the head coaching job at UNLV, but I think they upgraded there, by hiring Joe Moorhead, whose head coaching tenure at Mississippi State didn’t go as planned, but who saved James Franklin’s job at Penn State with the job he did fixing his offense. The quarterback competition was probably wide open anyway, but with a new coordinator I think everyone is truly starting from scratch. Sophomore Tyler Shough was the #2 last year, seeing action in 5 games, completing 12 of 15 passes. But Oregon signed a pair of 4* quarterbacks in their 2020 class, Jay Butterfield from Brentwood, California, the #5 rated pro-style quarterback; and Robby Ashford from Hoover, Alabama, the #12 rated dual threat quarterback. In addition, they added grad transfer Anthony Brown from Boston College, who was a three year starter, before suffering a season ending injury last year. Considering any of those guys could be the starter, but also, someone has to wind up 4th (with a redshirt caveat for the two true freshmen), I’m guessing the transfer portal may see one or two of those names. While the offensive line lost 3 NFL picks, they do return left tackle Penei Sewell, for what will almost certainly be his final season in Eugene, as the consensus best offensive lineman in the 2021 NFL Draft. Continued development of the receivers, which has been an ongoing problem for the program, will also help. The 2018 Ducks led the nation in dropped passes by such a wide margin, that their drop rate fell by nearly 2 per game in 2019, and still was the highest in the Pac 12. Johnny Johnson III returns, but there are question marks behind him...although perhaps positional transition is for the best. Although while this seems weird to say, Oregon remains a College Football Playoff contender due to their defense, which is #2 in the nation, behind only Georgia, in preseason SP+. Kayvon Thibodeaux came in as the #2 overall recruit in the nation, the highest rated commit in program history, and delivered on every bit of that rating, being named Pac 12 defensive freshman of the year. He is one of five all-conference defenders to return to the Ducks, including a loaded secondary, which led the Pac 12, finishing #14 nationally, in defensive passer rating. The graduation of Troy Dye means the linebacker is probably the one question mark on that side of the ball, but the line and the backs are so good, they should be able to cover for that. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go young at that spot as well. Defensive coordinator Andy Avalos proved last year that he’s not going to hesitate to play true freshmen, if they’ve earned it. Considering the relative lack of experience, and the fact that Oregon reeled in the #1 and #2 inside linebacker recruits in the 2020 class, Noah Sewell and Justin Flowe, Avalos may opt to throw them into the fire. And into the fire is right, with Oregon opening against North Dakota State and Ohio State back to back, albeit both at home. The conference schedule is very friendly though, as far as travel goes, with the Ducks road games being Colorado, Cal, Arizona, Washington State and Oregon State.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	C.J. Verdell, Junior
WR	Johnny Johnson III, Senior
T	Penei Sewell, Junior
	.
DE	Kayvon Thibodeaux, Junior
CB	Thomas Graham Jr., Senior
S	Jevon Holland, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on May 31, 2020, 05:19:43 PM

The team name is spelled "fDucks."

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on May 31, 2020, 07:55:03 PM

That obliterates the Pacific Time Zone.

Of the remaining seven, five are in the Eastern, while the other two are in the Central.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2020, 01:51:19 PM

I'm going to guess ELA's ranking ends up:

1. Clemson
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Oklahoma
5. Wisconsin
6. Florida
7. Penn State

I personally would have Bama in that group, but ELA obviously may well be right. And as usual I expect 2-3 teams unheralded to sneak into that group in reality.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on June 01, 2020, 04:06:02 PM

Washington was burned like a month ago

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 01, 2020, 04:33:21 PM

He appears to be mixing the Huskies up with the Nittany Lions.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on June 01, 2020, 04:45:03 PM

I'm getting old and even slower, I fixed it. Thanks.

Penn State. When did they get good? Huh.

Three B1G teams representing here, good stuff.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 01, 2020, 04:59:53 PM

UW has to replace its best-ever tailback, it's top receiver, one highly decorated offensive linemen and two highly decorated linebackers.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on June 02, 2020, 07:49:13 AM

Quote from: ELA on May 31, 2020, 04:44:33 PM

#8 Oregon Ducks
#1 in Pac 12
The Ducks also lost offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo, who left to take the head coaching job at UNLV, but I think they upgraded there, by hiring Joe Moorhead, whose head coaching tenure at Mississippi State didn’t go as planned, but who saved James Franklin’s job at Penn State with the job he did fixing his offense.

Very good write up except for this IMO - Anonymous Coward,BBTS and myself went a few rounds on this last September.It cuts both ways while Moorehead was indeed crafty/insightful.Franklin however recruited a stable of studs in a nice 3 yr dragnet.And JM took creative advantage of the circumstances thus polishing his portfolio leading to greener pastures.Perhaps Moorehead is like Ed Warinner very good at certain gigs out of his element when the focus is moved to different

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on June 02, 2020, 09:32:59 AM

Whoops, thought I posted this yesterday

#7 Georgia Bulldogs

#2 in SEC

For all of the criticism Jake Fromm took for not really developing from what he was as a freshman, which only escalated last year when Justin Fields lapped him in development after leaving. But for better or worse, he was a steady hand, although watching SEC rivals Alabama and LSU open it up and sling it all over the field had to hurt. Wake Forest transfer Jamie Newman looks to have the lead going into the fall. He was outstanding last year for the Demon Deacons, but struggled a little bit down the stretch without future first round NFL Draft pick Sage Surratt healthy, completing 46% of his passes or worse in 4 of Wake Forest’s last five games. Newman has to hold off three more highly recruited, but less accomplished challengers, in redshirt freshman Dwan Mathis, a 2019 signing day Ohio State flip, true freshman Carson Beck, a top 10 quarterback prospect, and USC transfer J.T. Daniels, the #2 quarterback prospect in the 2018 class, who will need a waiver to be eligible. He’s struggled with inconsistency and ineffectiveness, so a year off to just soak it in and get healthy wouldn’t be the worst thing. Georgia has seemingly had the “next guy” in training, ready to step up at running back for the past decade and a half. This year that’s less of the case, although there is still plenty of talent at the position, just that D’Andre Swift and Brian Herrian took their 299 carries last year out the door with them. Herrian was probably never a #1 option anyway, but he complimented Swift well. Zamir White, James Cook and Kenny McIntosh will vie for carries in a time share, after combined for 5.9 ypc on 134 carries last year. The bigger problem for Georgia’s run game is who is going to open holes for them, trying to replace both tackles and both guards, around All-SEC center Trey Hill. While Jamie Newman isn’t Joe Burrow, what Georgia can take away from LSU’s offensive renaissance last year, is to take their receiving talent, and use it to pressure defenses. I’m not sure if he’s Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson, but George Pickens has way more talent than the offense allowed him to show last year. They had Mecole Hardman, who has been unlocked with the Chiefs, they need to figure out how to better use Pickens, whose 2019 numbers were fairly similar to Justin Jefferson’s 2018 numbers. Both were still good enough to lead their team in receiving, but there’s more there. The Bulldogs’ defense has nearly zero questions. It was the top unit in the SEC last year in ypp, #1 nationally in SP+, and returns 80% of their defensive production, which on paper, makes them the best defense in the nation again, on paper, going into 2020. Watch out for Nolan Smith, the #1 overall recruit two years ago. While he only had 18 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss, he was fourth on the team in quarterback hurries. With one full offseason, and the other talent Georgia has at linebacker, the havoc creator should rack up more of the traditional stats to get onto people’s radars. A “neutral” site game against Virginia, in Atlanta, to open, should help them focus early, which will help for a Week 3 trip to Tuscaloosa, Georgia’s first since 2007, which is also the last time Georgia beat the Tide. They’ve lost 5 in a row since, all in their home state, twice at home, twice in the SEC Championship Game, once in the National Championship Game in Atlanta. Combined with a home game against Auburn, and the Cocktail Party in October, by the time the calendar turns to November, Georgia very well could be out of it, or have a clear path to the #1 seed.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Jamie Newman, Senior
WR	George Pickens, Sophomore
C	Trey Hill, Junior
	.
LB	Monty Rice, Senior
LB	Azeez Ojulari, Sophomore
S	Richard LaCounte, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 01:38:48 PM

Quote from: MrNubbz on June 02, 2020, 07:49:13 AM

Very good write up except for this IMO - Anonymous Coward,BBTS and myself went a few rounds on this last September.It cuts both ways while Moorehead was indeed crafty/insightful.Franklin however recruited a stable of studs in a nice 3 yr dragnet.And JM took creative advantage of the circumstances thus polishing his portfolio leading to greener pastures.Perhaps Moorehead is like Ed Warinner very good at certain gigs out of his element when the focus is moved to different

It's annoying. Franklin's job was never in jeopardy.

Penn State was still heavily effected by the sanctions, even in 2016. Winning a B1G championship wasn't expected by anyone. Moorehead obviously deserves a lot of credit, but he didn't "save" Franklin's job. Do I think he was instrumental in PSU's success? Absolutely.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 03:29:50 PM

Mecole Hardman left two seasons ago, FYI, and Herrien is spelled with an e.

The OL has some guys returning who have played a fair bit anyway.

https://www.dawgnation.com/football/georgia-football-offensive-line-2020-cade-mays (https://www.dawgnation.com/football/georgia-football-offensive-line-2020-cade-mays)

Putting them at 7 sounds about right anyway. They can afford a loss at Bama but not one in Florida obviously. Presuming they don't slip up, the season is the WLOCP, and perhaps Auburn. They need a split with Auburn and Alabama. They get the Vols in Athens.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on June 02, 2020, 03:36:44 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 03:29:50 PM

Mecole Hardman left two seasons ago, FYI

Yeah, I meant seeing him in the NFL last year, I think it was evident that he could have done more at Georgia if they had let him.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on June 02, 2020, 03:40:13 PM

#6 Wisconsin Badgers

#3 in Big Ten

Minnesota was rolling along, having their best season in five decades, one win away from their first trip to Indianapolis, until their rivals reminded them that the West was still their division...before being reminded that the conference still belonged to Ohio State. The West Division will likely again come down to the Axe game...which unfortunately, for the first time since 2012, will not be played on Thanksgiving weekend. Instead it is at the end of a very difficult four game stretch for Bucky, which starts September 19 at home against Appalachian State, then a road trip to Michigan, a neutral site game in Green Bay against Notre Dame, before returning home to face Minnesota on October 10. After that, things settle down with as easy a five game stretch as any Power 5 team could get in conference play, before a season ending trip to Kinnick. The first time Wisconsin has closed the season against that rival since 2004, when Iowa won to cost Wisconsin a share of the Big Ten title. The Badgers bounced back from a disappointing 2018, with a strong 2019, and look to be even better in 2020, but they’ll look quite a bit different. At this time last year even I was saying I’d be shocked if Jack Coan held off Graham Mertz for the quarterback job, after an underwhelming showing in 2018, and Mertz being the highest rated quarterback Wisconsin had ever brought in. Coan proved me wrong, completing nearly 70% of his passes, finishing #9 in the nation in QBR, and Mertz not even burning his redshirt. With the redshirt concern out of the way, I would expect to see Mertz get a few more game reps this year, as that seems to be the trend in college football. He will almost certainly be the starter in 2021, and you don’t want him to have gone nearly three years without a meaningful snap. He will benefit from perhaps the best edge protection Wisconsin has ever had, and that is saying quite something, but with two returning All-Big Ten tackles, to pair with an elite tight end in Jake Ferguson, good luck getting around the outside on that. They do have to replace the interior of the line, including maybe the best center in the country, and oh...the first running back in NCAA history to top 6,000 yards without playing his senior season. For maybe any other program in the nation that would be a concern, and I’m not sure I’ve ever had this much doubt about the Badgers’ running back situation, and yet I still have total faith. Losing Quintez Cephus early, and Aron Cruickshank to the transfer portal hurts the ceiling of the receivers, but with a senior Coan, and a deep group, I still think the floor will be plenty high. The defense finished second in the Big Ten, and sixth nationally in ypp allowed, but might be better this year. Much as the strength of the offense shifted from the interior line and running backs to the tackles and quarterbacks; the strength of the defense shifts from the linebackers to the line and secondary. The line draws from two great edge rushers, but needs to improve the interior play, although they have had really bad injury luck there in each of the last two seasons. The secondary, one of only five Power 5 units to hold opponents below a 52% completion rate last year, should be elite, probably best in the Big Ten on paper, although Ohio State always seems to have another cornerback on deck, ready to go.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Jack Coan, Senior
TE	Jake Ferguson, Junior
T	Cole Van Lanen, Senior
	.
DE	Isaiah Loudermilk, Senior
CB	Faion Hicks, Senior
S	Eric Burrell, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 02, 2020, 03:59:39 PM

ELA Top 5 demographics

2 B1G East
1 SEC East
1 Big 12
1 ACC

.

By State: 1 in each Florida, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and S Carolina.
By Time Zone: 4 Eastern, 1 Central
2 South, 3 North (Midwest/Northeast)
It isn't going to contain the Wolverines.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on June 02, 2020, 04:49:23 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on June 02, 2020, 03:59:39 PM

ELA Top 5 demographics

2 B1G East
1 SEC East
1 Big 12
1 ACC

.

By State: 1 in each Florida, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania and S Carolina.
By Time Zone: 4 Eastern, 1 Central
2 South, 3 North (Midwest/Northeast)
It isn't going to contain the Wolverines.

So Oklahoma must carry the load for the entire country west of the ETZ?
Come on, Texas, USC, fOregon, U-Dub! Nebraska! Step it up!

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on June 02, 2020, 04:57:07 PM

working on it!

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on June 02, 2020, 06:37:34 PM

ELA's fact got me curious about seasons that ended without playing Minnesota at the end/in the conference finale. Here's what I got:
2013: Penn State on Thanksgiving week, Minnesota the week earlier. Last year of leaders and legends
2012: Penn State a week after OSU. Minnesota was on Oct. 20
2011: Penn State, Minnesota was Nov. 12
2010: NW, Minnesota was Oct. 19 (the card game)
2009: NW ending the conference season. At Hawaii to finish. Minnesota was a early Oct. game to christen the new stadium for conference play
2008: Cal Poly was the season closer, but Minnesota wrapped conference play
2006: Iowa wrapped conference play, then a weird Buffalo game
2005: Iowa, then at Hawaii
2004: Iowa
2003: Iowa
2000: At Indiana on Nov. 11, then two weeks off before at Hawaii

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on June 02, 2020, 07:43:04 PM

Quote from: bayareabadger on June 02, 2020, 06:37:34 PM

ELA's fact got me curious about seasons that ended without playing Minnesota at the end/in the conference finale. Here's what I got:
2013: Penn State on Thanksgiving week, Minnesota the week earlier. Last year of leaders and legends
2012: Penn State a week after OSU. Minnesota was on Oct. 20
2011: Penn State, Minnesota was Nov. 12
2010: NW, Minnesota was Oct. 19 (the card game)
2009: NW ending the conference season. At Hawaii to finish. Minnesota was a early Oct. game to christen the new stadium for conference play
2008: Cal Poly was the season closer, but Minnesota wrapped conference play
2006: Iowa wrapped conference play, then a weird Buffalo game
2005: Iowa, then at Hawaii
2004: Iowa
2003: Iowa
2000: At Indiana on Nov. 11, then two weeks off before at Hawaii

Missed that one, I think I just looked at the date and assumed.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on June 02, 2020, 09:28:07 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 02, 2020, 04:57:07 PM

working on it!

Well, that's a start.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on June 02, 2020, 10:28:31 PM

only missing 9 players

5 up front on the O-line and 4 upfront on the D-line

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 02, 2020, 10:55:34 PM

It has gotten to the point where it is difficult to zero in on the weak link.

Is it Penn State? Oklahoma? Florida?

Maybe it's like the poker table, where if you can't figure out who the sucker is, then it's you.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on June 03, 2020, 08:05:08 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 03:29:50 PM

Mecole Hardman left two seasons ago, FYI, and Herrien is spelled with an e.

Crap for some reason I thought he was in Gainesville.Supposedly a Buckeye lean at one time and obviously developed nicely

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 03, 2020, 09:16:47 AM

Looks like the ND/UW series is no longer neutral.

https://saturdaytradition.com/wisconsin-football/lambeau-field-may-not-be-hosting-wisconsin-notre-dame-this-year/ (https://saturdaytradition.com/wisconsin-football/lambeau-field-may-not-be-hosting-wisconsin-notre-dame-this-year/)

It will be in South Bend this year (ND was the "home" team in Lambeau) and then Madison next year (UW was the "home" team at Soldier Field).

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on June 03, 2020, 10:14:03 AM

much better!

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on June 03, 2020, 12:11:39 PM

Quote from: ELA on June 02, 2020, 07:43:04 PM

Missed that one, I think I just looked at the date and assumed.

To be fair, with how that game went, I wish I missed it too.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on June 03, 2020, 01:52:21 PM

#5 Florida Gators

#1 in SEC

For all of the “Texas is back” or “Michigan is back” or “Notre Dame is back” talk we seem to get, Florida won 8 of 18 SEC titles from 1991-2008, including 3 national titles, playing in current New Years Six bowls in 13 of 18 years. Even the three Zook years resulted in New Years Day bowls and top 25 finishes. Then from 2010-2017 (8 seasons), Florida won no conference titles, finished unranked five times, missed bowls twice, and played in the Birmingham Bowl once. Yet in just two seasons Dan Mullen has gone 21-5, with a pair of top 7 finishes, and a pair of New Years Six bowl wins. By comparison, that’s as many top 7 finishes and New Years Six bowl wins as Texas has in the past 14 seasons, Michigan in the past 21 seasons, and Notre Dame in the last 29 seasons. Yet, I didn’t hear any “Florida is back” talk, they just were. That said, Florida hasn’t been to an SEC Championship Game since getting blasted 54-16 by Alabama in the 2016 game, marking their first three year gap in appearances in the three decades the game has existed. It’s no coincidence that it has coincided with a three game losing streak in the Cocktail Party. Getting back to Atlanta means winning that game, otherwise it will be their first four game losing streak in the series since losing six in a row from 1978-83. Dan Mullen is an offensive guy, and while the advanced metrics still really liked his first two Gator offenses (ranking both in the top 15 in SP+, despite being out of the top 25 in ypp), it will need to take the next step to elite for Florida to get past the Bulldogs. Kyle Trask, taking over as the starting quarterback once Franks got injured, got off to a bit of a slow start, being asked to do very little against Kentucky, but then taking off the following week against Tennessee. His low QBR the rest of the year was 59.4 against Auburn, finishing 10th in the nation in the metric. He might not have even been the best Kyle on the offense, with sophomore tight end Kyle Trask perhaps being the best tight end in the country. They just need to get a LOT more from their backs and receivers after finishing #85 nationally in ypc, and their leading receiver, the graduated Van Jefferson, barely edged out Pitts for the team lead in receiving yards. Miami transfer Lorenzo Lingard just learned his waiver was approved, so he likely immediately jumps to the top of the running back depth chart. If Penn State transfer receiver Justin Shorter gets the same news, that should help as well. Although Shorter, who was the #1 receiver prospect coming out of high school struggled to even get meaningful snaps in Happy Valley. The defense, which has been elite for the past two years, won’t be able to shoulder as much of the load this year, with the graduation of 5 seniors, plus the early departure of cornerback C.J. Henderson. David Reese II and Jonathan Greenard alone are nearly impossible to replace, which Reese finishing with 40 more tackles than anyone else on the roster, and Greenard with more than twice as many sacks. Georgia transfer Brenton Cox will be asked to immediately replace Greenard’s pass rushing ability, but the leadership of Reese, and the ability of Henderson to shut down half the field, will not be as easily replaced. The secondary is in slightly better shape, with the return of ballhawk safety Donovan Stiner, to pair with Shawn Davis, and Marco Wilson, who toyed with leaving early. True freshman cornerback Kaiir Elam came on strong late, but with Henderson’s departure, his assignments became a lot tougher.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Kyle Trask, Senior
TE	Kyle Pitts, Junior
K	Evan McPherson, Junior
	.
LB	Ventrell Miller, Junior
S	Donovan Stiner, Senior
S	Shawn Davis, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 03, 2020, 02:12:03 PM

So ELA is guaranteeing an OSU-PSU NCG?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on June 03, 2020, 02:15:06 PM

Quote from: ELA on June 03, 2020, 01:52:21 PM

#5 Florida Gators
#1 in SEC

#1 in the SEC????!!!!????

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bamajoe on June 03, 2020, 04:25:39 PM

Let me see if I understand. Florida with a good quarterback, no established running backs or receivers, and the loss of six starters on their defense, is going to win the SEC? Those assertions are those of the OP. Florida will imo have a good team though not as good as last year. They have a decent chance at second in the East although Tennessee is coming in a hurry and with little chance against Georgia with all that talent Kirby Smart is amassing.

Alabama, on the other hand, is loaded. Jones, whom you dismissed, has superior numbers to Trask in every category. His only problem was he didn't play enough to be considered. He was 97 for 141 for 10.7 yds per completion. His qb rating was 186.9. Trask was 237 for 354 for 8.3 yards per completion with a qb rating of 146.5. Even if Jones is ineffective Bama has the Bryce Young, the number 1 rated prep qb in the country to replace him. I know the OP said he was too small. One would think that after Kyler Murray, Johnny Manziel, Tua, Baker Mayfield and Russell Wilson that it should be apparent that a qb doesn't have to be a giant.

Alabama, unlike Florida has both RBs including Najee Harris returning plus Trey Sanders the number 1 prep rb from 2018 who suffered an injury in preseason last year. The offensive line lost one player to the NFL and should be one of the nation's best. I doubt Florida's O-line matches up. For wrs Alabama has two returning who are considered top draft choices next winter, Davonte Smith and Jaylen Waddle, who the OP didn't mention in his write up.

Alabama did have problems on defense last year primarily because injuries decimated the lb and dl. Those freshman lbs are not freshmen any more plus All American Dylan Moses as well as Josh McMillan back at LB. The D-line was a weakness last year especially after Labryan Ray and DJ Dale were lost to injuries. They are both back along with the Number 2 rated recruiting class.

It is possible that Alabama could again be wracked with injuries which cost Alabama the playoffs last year, but at this point it is illogical to consider Florida better than Alabama and have them ranked 16

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on June 03, 2020, 04:49:06 PM

I like his write ups. It's a tradition. His rankings are usually as good as any, and as bad. And, they have zero influence in who wins what games. It's also fun when he does something unexpected like this.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on June 03, 2020, 05:28:12 PM

Quote from: bamajoe on June 03, 2020, 04:25:39 PM

Let me see if I understand. Florida with a good quarterback, no established running backs or receivers, and the loss of six starters on their defense, is going to win the SEC? Those assertions are those of the OP. Florida will imo have a good team though not as good as last year. They have a decent chance at second in the East although Tennessee is coming in a hurry and with little chance against Georgia with all that talent Kirby Smart is amassing.

Alabama, on the other hand, is loaded. Jones, whom you dismissed, has superior numbers to Trask in every category. His only problem was he didn't play enough to be considered. He was 97 for 141 for 10.7 yds per completion. His qb rating was 186.9. Trask was 237 for 354 for 8.3 yards per completion with a qb rating of 146.5. Even if Jones is ineffective Bama has the Bryce Young, the number 1 rated prep qb in the country to replace him. I know the OP said he was too small. One would think that after Kyler Murray, Johnny Manziel, Tua, Baker Mayfield and Russell Wilson that it should be apparent that a qb doesn't have to be a giant.

Alabama, unlike Florida has both RBs including Najee Harris returning plus Trey Sanders the number 1 prep rb from 2018 who suffered an injury in preseason last year. The offensive line lost one player to the NFL and should be one of the nation's best. I doubt Florida's O-line matches up. For wrs Alabama has two returning who are considered top draft choices next winter, Davonte Smith and Jaylen Waddle, who the OP didn't mention in his write up.

Alabama did have problems on defense last year primarily because injuries decimated the lb and dl. Those freshman lbs are not freshmen any more plus All American Dylan Moses as well as Josh McMillan back at LB. The D-line was a weakness last year especially after Labryan Ray and DJ Dale were lost to injuries. They are both back along with the Number 2 rated recruiting class.

It is possible that Alabama could again be wracked with injuries which cost Alabama the playoffs last year, but at this point it is illogical to consider Florida better than Alabama and have them ranked 16

Well, I had them 11, not 16.

I think someone else, not me, said Young was too small. And by the time Murray took over at Oklahoma he was 195; those other guys you listed are all over 200. Young was 183 at the AA bowl.

Also, by Bill Connolly's (who has Alabama preseason #1 FTR) own metric, Florida returns more production on both offense and defense than Alabama does.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bamajoe on June 03, 2020, 06:35:16 PM

You are correct. It was somebody else in the thread commenting on Bryce Young being too small. I apologize, although you didn't give him or Jones much credit.

Secondly your remarks about Alabama not being very productive offensively boggles one's mind. Alabama scored 614 points which was 2nd in the nation and that was with losing our AA starting qb. Florida scored 432. Florida was better defensively as they gave up only 201 as opposed to Alabama's 242. You did mention in your write up that Florida lost 6 starters. I am still having trouble understanding how you see Florida as being better than Alabama or Georgia for that matter.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on June 03, 2020, 06:46:00 PM

It for fun and has a prognosticating slant - he's rolling the dice something unexpected could happen.Maybe not but it's always better to pile on after the fact.If FLA has one thing going -it's mullen and a state full of talent.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MaximumSam on June 03, 2020, 06:53:48 PM

Hey if you woulda told me last year that LSU would end up being one of the greatest teams of all time I probably would have laughed

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on June 03, 2020, 07:16:45 PM

Quote from: bamajoe on June 03, 2020, 06:35:16 PM

You are correct. It was somebody else in the thread commenting on Bryce Young being too small. I apologize, although you didn't give him or Jones much credit.

Secondly your remarks about Alabama not being very productive offensively boggles one's mind. Alabama scored 614 points which was 2nd in the nation and that was with losing our AA starting qb. Florida scored 432. Florida was better defensively as they gave up only 201 as opposed to Alabama's 242. You did mention in your write up that Florida lost 6 starters. I am still having trouble understanding how you see Florida as being better than Alabama or Georgia for that matter.

Where did I say they weren't productive offensively?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bamajoe on June 03, 2020, 08:54:26 PM

You said the offensive line did not perform up to what it normally did and finished outside the top 20 of something called the Football Outsiders. I was pointing out that the offensive line played well enough for the team to average 47 points per game.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on June 03, 2020, 09:21:28 PM

Quote from: bamajoe on June 03, 2020, 08:54:26 PM

You said the offensive line did not perform up to what it normally did and finished outside the top 20 of something called the Football Outsiders. I was pointing out that the offensive line played well enough for the team to average 47 points per game.

You said I said they weren't productive offensively. That's the third thing now you've said I said, that I never said. I did say that their OL last year didn't perform up to their normal lofty standards, based on FOs line yards metric. That's true, it was their lowest rank there in the 6 or 7 years they've measured it.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on June 04, 2020, 12:08:47 AM

Quote from: bamajoe on June 03, 2020, 04:25:39 PM

Alabama, unlike Florida has both RBs including Najee Harris returning plus Trey Sanders the number 1 prep rb from 2018 who suffered an injury in preseason last year. The offensive line lost one player to the NFL and should be one of the nation's best. I doubt Florida's O-line matches up. For wrs Alabama has two returning who are considered top draft choices next winter, Davonte Smith and Jaylen Waddle, who the OP didn't mention in his write up.

I don't know why, but the bolded detail felt weird. Like there's a lot of reasons to argue Bama is better than UF. But saying, there's a guy who averaged 4.6 yards a carry and managed four carries a game in the last five doesn't feel like it helps the case. I mean, just saying Bama returns Harris and gets in Sanders and UF's best back has been lightly used feels like enough.

Anyway, the preview was littered with "this will probably be wrong"s. Bama loses what seems like a generational guy. Probably won't matter, but it could.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: MrNubbz on June 04, 2020, 12:29:25 AM

Quote from: ELA on June 03, 2020, 09:21:28 PM

You said I said they weren't productive offensively. That's the third thing now you've said I said, that I never said. I did say that their OL last year didn't perform up to their normal lofty standards, based on FOs line yards metric. That's true, it was their lowest rank there in the 6 or 7 years they've measured it.

Damn miss the championship just one year the Tide sniffs disrespect.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 06:54:21 AM

None of this matters obviously, it could well turn out Florida ends up 9-3 and Bama goes 13-0, that would not shock me (or the reverse).

This is probably a more traditional kind of ranking:

https://247sports.com/college/georgia/LongFormArticle/College-football-preseason-Top-25-rankings-2020-season-Alabama-Crimson-Tide-Georgia-Bulldogs-Florida-Texas-Ohio-State--147796428/#147796428_19 (https://247sports.com/college/georgia/LongFormArticle/College-football-preseason-Top-25-rankings-2020-season-Alabama-Crimson-Tide-Georgia-Bulldogs-Florida-Texas-Ohio-State--147796428/#147796428_19)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on June 04, 2020, 08:18:32 AM

#4 Penn State Nittany Lions

#2 in Big Ten

I thought all James Franklin did in his Joe Moorhead hire was delay the inevitable, and without him, he was headed right back to where the Nittany Lions were prior to Moorehead’s hiring. Franklin may never be an A+ gameday coach, but he seems to be more than just an ace recruiter, he’s proving he can be a strong program CEO as well. The Nittany Lions gave Ohio State everything they could handle in Columbus, and now, getting them at home, ensuring that the Big Ten East title goes through Happy Valley. To prove that Franklin isn’t just a big time recruiter, this could be his best offense yet, and that’s with his highest rated running back recruit (Ricky Slade) and highest rated receiver recruit (Justin Shorter) both transferring out because they couldn’t get on the field. The development of a deep stable of running backs is the key here, led by Journey Brown, who might be the best back in the conference. He didn’t do much in his first season and a half, getting 8 carries in 2018, and only going over 6 carries in a game once. The first game he saw his workload increase, he averaged just 3.8 ypc on 12 carries against Michigan State. But over November, and through the Cotton Bowl, Brown took off, with four 100 yard games over Penn State’s final five. His 6.9 ypc wound up leading all Big Ten backs who averaged at least 10 carries a game, 4th nationally. The next step is whether the true junior can up his carries to 200+. Maybe he won’t have to, with Noah Cain and Devyn Ford combining for 737 yards on 136 carries (5.41 ypc) as true freshman, with another pair of 4* recruits joining the team in Keyvone Lee and Caziah Holmes. They may look to play Holmes in the K.J. Hamler role though, although Hamler was much more of a receiver in high school than Holmes was. Holmes is an early enrollee, listed as a running back on Penn State’s spring roster, but he’s a 5’11”, 175 pound burner, who just needs the ball in his hands. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him fill that returner/slot role. Particularly considering that for as deep as Penn State is at running back, receiver...not so much. Really, with Sean Clifford back at quarterback, Pat Friermuth, potentially the best tight end in the nation, back, and now joined by Theo Johnson, a top 5 tight end recruit; and two All-Big Ten linemen back, receiver is truly the only question mark on the Penn State offense. Behind the departed Hamler, and Friermuth, a tight end, the top returning receiver is Jahad Dotson, with just 488 yards on 27 receptions. Behind him, going down the list,...graduated, transferred, running back, transferred, before we land on Daniel George, the likely #2 receiver, who had 9 receptions last year, never more than 2 in a game, in mop up duty. Hence my skepticism that Holmes sticks at running back. The part that makes this interesting is that Minnesota offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarocca, who diced up the Penn State secondary with the routes he utilized his receivers for, was hired away by the enemy. The top end of the defense is as good as any in the country, with Micah Parsons winning Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year as a sophomore. The problem is while the Nittany Lions have All-American candidates at all three levels, they did also lose 7 starters. The issue with Penn State’s defense is not finding guys to elevate from role players to stars, but finding complimentary pieces to fill the roles around the established stars. The program recruits at a level that it shouldn’t be a problem.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Sean Clifford, Junior
TE	Pat Friermuth, Junior
T	Will Fries, Senior
	.
DE	Shaka Toney, Senior
LB	Micah Parsons, Junior
CB	Tariq Castro-Fields, Senior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 04, 2020, 10:35:47 AM

Quote from: ELA on June 04, 2020, 08:18:32 AM

#4 Penn State Nittany Lions
#2 in Big Ten
I thought all James Franklin did in his Joe Moorhead hire was delay the inevitable, and without him, he was headed right back to where the Nittany Lions were prior to Moorehead’s hiring. Franklin may never be an A+ gameday coach, but he seems to be more than just an ace recruiter, he’s proving he can be a strong program CEO as well. The Nittany Lions gave Ohio State everything they could handle in Columbus, and now, getting them at home, ensuring that the Big Ten East title goes through Happy Valley. To prove that Franklin isn’t just a big time recruiter, this could be his best offense yet, and that’s with his highest rated running back recruit (Ricky Slade) and highest rated receiver recruit (Justin Shorter) both transferring out because they couldn’t get on the field. The development of a deep stable of running backs is the key here, led by Journey Brown, who might be the best back in the conference. He didn’t do much in his first season and a half, getting 8 carries in 2018, and only going over 6 carries in a game once. The first game he saw his workload increase, he averaged just 3.8 ypc on 12 carries against Michigan State. But over November, and through the Cotton Bowl, Brown took off, with four 100 yard games over Penn State’s final five. His 6.9 ypc wound up leading all Big Ten backs who averaged at least 10 carries a game, 4th nationally. The next step is whether the true junior can up his carries to 200+. Maybe he won’t have to, with Noah Cain and Devyn Ford combining for 737 yards on 136 carries (5.41 ypc) as true freshman, with another pair of 4* recruits joining the team in Keyvone Lee and Caziah Holmes. They may look to play Holmes in the K.J. Hamler role though, although Hamler was much more of a receiver in high school than Holmes was. Holmes is an early enrollee, listed as a running back on Penn State’s spring roster, but he’s a 5’11”, 175 pound burner, who just needs the ball in his hands. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him fill that returner/slot role. Particularly considering that for as deep as Penn State is at running back, receiver...not so much. Really, with Sean Clifford back at quarterback, Pat Friermuth, potentially the best tight end in the nation, back, and now joined by Theo Johnson, a top 5 tight end recruit; and two All-Big Ten linemen back, receiver is truly the only question mark on the Penn State offense. Behind the departed Hamler, and Friermuth, a tight end, the top returning receiver is Jahad Dotson, with just 488 yards on 27 receptions. Behind him, going down the list,...graduated, transferred, running back, transferred, before we land on Daniel George, the likely #2 receiver, who had 9 receptions last year, never more than 2 in a game, in mop up duty. Hence my skepticism that Holmes sticks at running back. The part that makes this interesting is that Minnesota offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarocca, who diced up the Penn State secondary with the routes he utilized his receivers for, was hired away by the enemy. The top end of the defense is as good as any in the country, with Micah Parsons winning Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year as a sophomore. The problem is while the Nittany Lions have All-American candidates at all three levels, they did also lose 7 starters. The issue with Penn State’s defense is not finding guys to elevate from role players to stars, but finding complimentary pieces to fill the roles around the established stars. The program recruits at a level that it shouldn’t be a problem.

KEY PLAYERS
QB Sean Clifford, Junior
TE Pat Friermuth, Junior
T Will Fries, Senior
.
DE Shaka Toney, Senior
LB Micah Parsons, Junior
CB Tariq Castro-Fields, Senior

I am not comfortable with this. Haha

PSU had a lot of coaching turnover this year, and the lack of spring ball hurts. Don’t be shocked if PSU loses to VT early. :(

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on June 04, 2020, 10:47:55 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 06:54:21 AM

None of this matters obviously, it could well turn out Florida ends up 9-3 and Bama goes 13-0, that would not shock me (or the reverse).

This is probably a more traditional kind of ranking:

https://247sports.com/college/georgia/LongFormArticle/College-football-preseason-Top-25-rankings-2020-season-Alabama-Crimson-Tide-Georgia-Bulldogs-Florida-Texas-Ohio-State--147796428/#147796428_19 (https://247sports.com/college/georgia/LongFormArticle/College-football-preseason-Top-25-rankings-2020-season-Alabama-Crimson-Tide-Georgia-Bulldogs-Florida-Texas-Ohio-State--147796428/#147796428_19)

Yes. Three SEC teams in the top 5 is definitely a more traditional kind of ranking.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 10:57:29 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on June 04, 2020, 10:47:55 AM

Yes. Three SEC teams in the top 5 is definitely a more traditional kind of ranking.

It's how they end up that counts of course.

A poster didn't like where ELA had his team, so this ranking would make him happier I suppose.

If someone has my Dawgs ranked 130th, or 50th, or 20th, or 1st, I may note it with some amusement, but I can't really get up much dander over it myself. I'd just like to have a season, even if it's a weird season with few or no fans.

These protests may end up teaching is something about the virus and it's spread in crowds.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on June 04, 2020, 10:59:54 AM

rankings are like models

they are ALL wrong

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 11:03:10 AM

All models are wrong, some models are useful.

You know of course the model about atomic structure, this central nucleus with protons and neutrons tightly packed and electrons whizzing around like planets in orbit. The model is wrong in many aspects, but it is useful.

F = ma isn't a model really, and it's not wrong.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on June 04, 2020, 11:20:20 AM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 11:03:10 AM

All models are wrong, some models are useful.

as you can tell, I like this

mostly thinking of weather models, but I like to try it with all things that are similar to a model

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on June 04, 2020, 12:24:35 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 04, 2020, 11:20:20 AM

as you can tell, I like this

mostly thinking of weather models, but I like to try it with all things that are similar to a model

I find models mostly useless, but nice to look at

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 01:34:49 PM

Ha. I generated a LOT of models in my day, had no real choice. Some were mathematical, curve fitting whatever, and some were more conceptual, like how some chemical reaction proceeds through what intermediate etc. That can be helpful in predicting what will happen at some different temperature. Polymer science uses a lot of models that can predict how a polymer may deform under load after say 3 decades.

Time-temperature superposition they call it. You can model this with a short term (3 hour) experiment.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2020, 01:42:31 PM

You clowns are really making thread hard on Drew later this month. I mean, he's the one who has to clean up all the messes made so he can publish it.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on June 04, 2020, 01:57:45 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2020, 01:42:31 PM

You clowns are really making thread hard on Drew later this month. I mean, he's the one who has to clean up all the messes made so he can publish it.

I can go through and delete my rankings, so that he can pull the useful part

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 02:18:49 PM

In the future, maybe we have a locked thread on which only ELA can post and another thread for commentary.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: rolltidefan on June 04, 2020, 02:43:14 PM

Quote from: ELA on June 03, 2020, 05:28:12 PM

Well, I had them 11, not 16.

I think someone else, not me, said Young was too small. And by the time Murray took over at Oklahoma he was 195; those other guys you listed are all over 200. Young was 183 at the AA bowl.

Also, by Bill Connolly's (who has Alabama preseason #1 FTR) own metric, Florida returns more production on both offense and defense than Alabama does.

fwiw, i have no problem with your ranking bama #11. eventually we'll drop, and if you think it's this year, well, maybe it is.

but the returning production thing is suspect. the problem is the returning production is based solely on a % lost, not gross. bama lost a ton % wise, no doubt. but still return more production than almost anyone in sec.

only thing uf has on offense over bama is maybe qb, though it's not a big difference either way, imo.

but wr production returning, bama's top 2 guys (smith and waddle) has more returning yards than uf's entire team returning.
running, bama's harris has more returning rushing yards than the entire returning team for uf.
both teams return most of their oline.

bama's lost off production is huge, but it's returning production is still among them best (if not tops) in the sec and, therefore, near the top of the nation.

as for defense, i got no idea. we lost so much to injuries it's hard to tell who counts as returning or what. all i know is the feeling among bama fans is, should this team stay healthy, this will be one of the better defenses saban's had. high praise. we'll see if it hold true (hopefully without the injuries either way).

enjoyed the read.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2020, 02:45:23 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 02:18:49 PM

In the future, maybe we have a locked thread on which only ELA can post and another thread for commentary.

That would certainly make things easier for Drew.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 04, 2020, 03:03:40 PM

Where does he post them after extrapolation?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on June 04, 2020, 03:17:29 PM

area 51

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 03:20:04 PM

https://www.cfb51.com/threads-from-the-publisher/ela-130-team-countdown/406/ (https://www.cfb51.com/threads-from-the-publisher/ela-130-team-countdown/406/)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 04, 2020, 03:27:32 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 03:20:04 PM

https://www.cfb51.com/threads-from-the-publisher/ela-130-team-countdown/406/ (https://www.cfb51.com/threads-from-the-publisher/ela-130-team-countdown/406/)

That one is from two years ago, and still contains all of the comments from the peanut gallery.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on June 04, 2020, 03:54:28 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on June 04, 2020, 03:17:29 PM

area 51

That's where I post my ranking of all 100 senators.
Maybe favorite cable new networks

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on June 05, 2020, 10:14:34 AM

#3 :88:hio State Buckeyes

#1 in Big Ten

The late game calls are the ones we remember, and generally the midgame questionable calls get forgotten. The targeting call against Ohio State last year, which reversed a fumble, ejected an elite defensive back, and completely swung a one sided game might be the exception. No matter which way you come down on that call, it’s hard to argue that wasn’t the pivotal on field moment of last season, and one that you know the Buckeyes haven’t forgotten. Last year, Ohio State seemed to have all of the pieces except quarterback, and even with Fields’ waiver being granted, it’s not as though he was some proven commodity that was going to save the season. I’m not even sure he was viewed as the better option for the 2019 season than Kelly Bryant. Turns out he was even better than the most optimistic Ohio State fan could have hoped for, with a 92.1 QBR, 3rd best in the country, and better than Dwayne Haskins, J.T. Barrett or Braxton Miller ever accomplished during their tenures. He has a group of skill position players that has a ton of top end talent, but will be relying on a lot of youth to round out the depth chart. Master Teague III had a very good freshman year backing up J.K. Dobbins, earning 3rd team All-Big Ten honors and averaging nearly 6 ypc. But he had less than half as many carries as Dobbins, and was a total non-factor in the passing game. The other concern is how he padded stats against lesser opponents, while in the closing stretch against Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin and Clemson, he had 45 yards on 21 carries (2.1 ypc) combined. Oklahoma transfer Trey Sermon should be a major factor here. The 1-2 punch at receiver should be as exciting as any in the country, with Chris Olave leading the way, and the highlight reel Garrett Wilson always a must watch, looking to build on his freshman year. Around them, the competition among the incoming freshman should be fierce, with the Buckeyes signing five 4-star or better recruits, including the #1, #5, #10 and #16 rated receivers. The offensive line, aside from Wyatt Davis, who might be the best guard in the country, does need to be totally rebuilt. For the first time in recent memory, the strength of the defense looks to be the linebackers, a veteran group of three seniors (a rarity in Columbus) who combined for 164 tackles last year. They don’t have the high end NFL pedigree of Buckeyes defenders of recent vintage, but they remind me of the early Tressell years groups. One area they could stand to improve on is their pass rush, without an obvious elite havoc creator in front of them. Zach Harrison may develop into that, he showed flashes as a true freshman, but four of the five players who registered 4 or more sacks last year have moved on. Shaun Wade returning to school was a big break for Coach Day, for what was already going to be a massive rebuild in the secondary, even before Amir Riep and Jahsen Wint got kicked off the team following their arrests. The Buckeyes have had 7 defensive backs drafted in the first round in the past 5 drafts, and getting that number up to 8 or 9 will go a long way toward how good this defense could be. Clearly the defensive staff changes last year had an instant impact.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Justin Fields, Junior
RB	Master Teague III, Sophomore
WR	Chris Olave, Junior
	.
LB	Tuf Borland, Senior
LB	Pete Werner, Senior
CB	Shaun Wade, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on June 05, 2020, 11:09:34 AM

We haven't seen Clemson yet, have we?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 05, 2020, 11:15:05 AM

We have one ACC and one Big 12.

An Eastern Time Zone and a Central Time Zone.

Squaring off against one another, with the ELA Preseason NC on the line.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on June 05, 2020, 11:23:10 AM

I am very surprised that the Big 12 has a team remaining in ELA's beauty pageant.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on June 05, 2020, 09:53:52 PM

me too

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on June 06, 2020, 11:12:53 AM

#2 Oklahoma Sooners

#1 in Big XII

Since winning the national title in 2000, Oklahoma has lost seven consecutive postseason games when the national championship was in play, a number by not close margins, including last year’s Peach Bowl, which was 56-14 five minutes into the second half. The defense, which overall looked better in 2019 than 2018, improving from #84 to #48 in SP+, still failed at the most critical times. They surrendered 63 points in the Sooners’ aforementioned semifinal loss; 48 points in a loss to Kansas State, arguably the worst offense in the Big XII; 41 points to Iowa State, needing a two point conversion stop with 24 seconds left to win; and 31 points in a half to Baylor, necessitating a furious second half comeback. Thanks to the return of 9 starters, the Sooners move up again, to #36 in preseason SP+, which would be their best defense in four years. Kenneth Murray was the star of the defense last year, so his departure will hurt, but the line, depending on the status of Ronnie Perkins, has a chance to be outstanding. Perkins, who was suspended for the Peach Bowl, has not yet had his status clarified. Oklahoma did add the top two JUCO interior defensive linemen in the nation, including Perrion Winfrey, the #1 overall rated JUCO recruit, to add some instant impact. That’s a lot of question marks, but a super high ceiling if it all pans out. Offensively, Spencer Rattler seems poised to be the first Sooners starting quarterback to start his college career at the school since Trevor Knight in 2014, the year after Bob Stoops hired Lincoln Riley away from East Carolina as offensive coordinator, following Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Jalen Hurts. So while we haven’t seen Riley groom a kid from high school, you can’t argue the fact that all of those guys took their games to the next level in Norman. It wasn’t just the fact that Oklahoma didn’t land another quarterback transfer, it was the fact that they didn’t even pursue one, even after having so much luck doing so. I think that alone should tell you all you need to know about how much confidence Riley has in his redshirt freshman. Oklahoma could have the best offensive line in the country, built around center Creed Humphrey, who won Big XII Lineman of the Year as only a sophomore, and enters 2020 as the top NFL prospect at the center position according to Mel Kiper, a chance to be the first center taken in the top 15 since Mike Pouncey by the Dolphins in 2011. He has all 4 line mates returning with him, from a line that already ranked #4 in the nation in line yards last year, #1 in short yardage situations. On paper this looks like the best line in the nation. Kennedy Brooks was good enough at running back, that he sent Trey Sermon into the transfer portal, but without his home run backfield mate, Rhamondre Stevenson, who is facing a suspension to start the season, but averaged 8 ypc last year, Oklahoma will be looking for someone to split the carries. While Charleston Rambo or UCLA transfer Theo Howard are more proven, on the outside, I think H-Back Jeremiah Hall is the breakout pass catcher, although he has a less conventional frame. Oklahoma has won five consecutive Big XII championships, joining 1991-95 Nebraska as the only school to do that since the Sooners won 13 Big Six/Seven/Eight championships from 1947-1959. But it has now been 20 years since the program’s last national title. Even though they didn’t wander through the Gibbs/Schnellenberger/Blake wilderness, it’s a longer drought than they went through from 1985-2000, and the longest in school history since Bud Wilkinson won their first. It's the national title or bust for this program right now.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Kennedy Brooks, Junior
HB	Jeremiah Hall, Junior
C	Creed Humphrey, Junior
	.
DE	LaRon Stokes, Senior
DE	Ronnie Perkins, Junior
S	Delarrin Turner-Yell, Junior

#1 Clemson Tigers

#1 in ACC

We’ve been Trevor Lawrenced to death. From the recruiting coverage, to his supplanting Kelly Bryant as a freshman en route to a national title, to girls impersonating him on Twitter. I want to take a minute to discuss just how much we’ve all under appreciated Travis Etienne. Him inexplicably returning for his senior year means maybe that comes to an end, when we take a look at the all time record books, and see he might be the greatest running back in college football history. If he merely repeats his junior year, which was actually a tick worse than his sophomore season, he’ll wind up with 5,652 career rushing yards, good for 8th all time. But he’ll have done it on 7.8 ypc, all full yard per carry more than anyone ahead of him. Jonathan Taylor, at 6.7 is the only other back on this list even above 6.2. He would also finish with 1,000 receiving yards, Donnell Pumphrey being the only other back in that group with as many. He was the beneficiary of running behind an offensive line comprised of five guys who all made All-ACC in 2019...four of whom have now graduated. So, he might have a little less room to operate this year. Even with Tee Higgins leaving early for the NFL, the Tigers still appeared to be just fine at receiver with Justyn Ross, who actually led the team in receptions, even if he never completely fulfilled the lofty expectations following his 12 reception, 301 yard, 3 touchdown performance in the 2018 playoffs. But with the recent news that he is going to miss the entire season with a spinal issue, receiver is suddenly a little more in flux. Amari Rodgers is the only returning receiver or tight end with more than 17 receptions last year. Clemson brought in a pair of highly rated receivers in their 2019 class, who simply couldn’t break into the deep group, in Frank Ladson Jr. and Joe Ngata, but who could explode with the opportunity in front of them as sophomores. After ranking as the #1 overall defensive line in 2018, in terms of line yards, the Clemson front took a half step back last year, and was very good, particularly at still getting after the quarterback, but dropped back against the run, ranking outside the top 30 nationally in terms of stuff rate. Granted, that meant they were merely the second best run defense in the ACC. But their one year dip from elite to great should end right there, at one year. The emergence of Tyler Davis in the middle as a freshman allowed this group to improve greatly over the second half of the season, and with a full offseason on campus(ish), he should be one of the best interior linemen in the country, at a position that favors upperclassmen, as only a sophomore. That should allow Xavier Thomas to really shine as one of the nation’s premier pass rushing linemen, the trajectory he appeared to be on, prior to a disappointing sophomore campaign. More will be expected of that front to generate the quarterback pressure with Isaiah Simmons leaving early, and Chad Smith graduating, leaving the linebacker position relatively thin. The secondary is in a similar predicament outside of returning cornerback Derion Kendrick, who now becomes the lockdown corner, with A.J. Terrell off to the NFL. Oh, and both safeties graduated. The Tigers have the best quarterback and best running back in the nation. When I completed these rankings, I also thought they had the best receiver, at least the one with the highest ceiling. The pieces around them, aside from the defensive line, I thought were a tick down from where Clemson had been the past couple years. With Ross now out, is simply having the best quarterback, the best running back, and an elite defensive line enough? The schedule is still such that I’d be shocked if Clemson isn’t playing the Rose Bowl or Sugar Bowl on January 1, their sixth consecutive playoff appearance.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Trevor Lawrence, Junior
RB	Travis Etienne, Senior
T	Jackson Carman, Junior
	.
DE	Xavier Thomas, Junior
DT	Tyler Davis, Sophomore
CB	Derion Kendrick, Junior

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on June 06, 2020, 11:29:35 AM

Dang, ELA! Couldn't you have left us in suspense about #1 for one more day?

In reference to your write-up on Oklahoma, I will say that OU fans thought, after the 2000 NC, that Bob Stoops would win a few more.
This will be the 20th season since then. 20 years can sure seem like a long time.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on June 06, 2020, 11:59:04 AM

Quote from: CWSooner on June 06, 2020, 11:29:35 AM

Dang, ELA! Couldn't you have left us in suspense about #1 for one more day?

In reference to your write-up on Oklahoma, I will say that OU fans thought, after the 2000 NC, that Bob Stoops would win a few more.
This will be the 20th season since then. 20 years can sure seem like a long time.

MSU basketball fans feel/felt the same about Izzo after he won one in 2000.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 06, 2020, 12:01:34 PM

The ELA 2020 Top Zero demographics:

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on June 09, 2020, 10:27:55 PM

A few notes before we get started: The returning production data is courtesy of ESPN’s Bill Connelly – it’s the best metric out there to measure just how much a program loses in one offseason – and was published in February. Any returning starter stats mentioned come from Phil Steele’s spring preview guide.

NO. 1 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

https://247sports.com/college/nebraska/LongFormArticle/College-football-preseason-top-25-2020-season-147974176/#147974176_1 (https://247sports.com/college/nebraska/LongFormArticle/College-football-preseason-top-25-2020-season-147974176/#147974176_1)

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on June 09, 2020, 10:51:52 PM

Looks interesting. The OSU at #1 seems reasonable.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 06:39:34 AM

Where was LSU last year preseason? We all know some teams gel unexpectedly, though the Burrow performance was unexpectable.

OSU and Clemson and OU will be right there, and probably Bama/UGA/UF somewhere near the top. The precise ordering to me is irrelevant really, a discussion point I suppose. Somebody else will turn out to be very good, Michigan, Washington, Texas, Wisconsin of course, UNC maybe ... A&M?

I don't know who of course. But it's fun to discuss.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on June 10, 2020, 12:16:22 PM

perhaps someone could come up with a huge cash prize for submitting the most accurate preseason top 25 (or any prize for that matter)

paid in late December

like the NCAA basketball bracket madness

might have to include, "others receiving votes" so that there were not too many "perfect" submissions

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 10, 2020, 12:33:37 PM

Even one perfect submission would be amazing, really.

Think how hard it is to do in basketball, even with an entire season's worth of data to consult.

A perfect preseason top 25 prediction? No way.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 12:35:47 PM

I'd guess given 10,000 chances we might get it right once.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on June 10, 2020, 01:25:19 PM

WAY too early 2021 preseason top 25, assuming the only early departures are those players listed in CBS' 2021 Top 100 NFL Draft prospect rankings...

Oklahoma
PENN STATE
Oregon
MICHIGAN
Georgia
LSU
Texas
USC
Clemson
MINNESOTA
Alabama
OHIO STATE
IOWA
Florida
Oklahoma State
Louisville
Virginia
Auburn
WISCONSIN
Baylor
North Carolina
Virginia Tech
Notre Dame
INDIANA
Texas A&M

This means Brock Purdy is gone. But if he returns, watch out big time for Iowa State, that becomes a top 10 roster on paper.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on June 10, 2020, 01:52:48 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 06:39:34 AM

Where was LSU last year preseason? We all know some teams gel unexpectedly, though the Burrow performance was unexpectable.

OSU and Clemson and OU will be right there, and probably Bama/UGA/UF somewhere near the top. The precise ordering to me is irrelevant really, a discussion point I suppose. Somebody else will turn out to be very good, Michigan, Washington, Texas, Wisconsin of course, UNC maybe ... A&M?

I don't know who of course. But it's fun to discuss.

Sixth, behind three playoff teams, Bama and UGA.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on June 10, 2020, 01:54:41 PM

Quote from: ELA on June 10, 2020, 01:25:19 PM

WAY too early 2021 preseason top 25, assuming the only early departures are those players listed in CBS' 2021 Top 100 NFL Draft prospect rankings...

Oklahoma
PENN STATE
Oregon
MICHIGAN
Georgia
LSU
Texas
USC
Clemson
MINNESOTA
Alabama
OHIO STATE
IOWA
Florida
Oklahoma State
Louisville
Virginia
Auburn
WISCONSIN
Baylor
North Carolina
Virginia Tech
Notre Dame
INDIANA
Texas A&M

This means Brock Purdy is gone. But if he returns, watch out big time for Iowa State, that becomes a top 10 roster on paper.

In terms of way too early, this is way too early.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on June 10, 2020, 02:29:14 PM

I always close with it. It's generally pretty useless. I will say two things, very conclusively (i) Oklahoma, with a little bit of guys returning to school luck is poised to be absolutely loaded; and (ii) with what Michigan should have back combined with what OSU has to replace, and the game being in Ann Arbor, if Harbaugh doesn't beat OSU next year, he does deserve to be fired.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on June 10, 2020, 03:21:16 PM

Quote from: ELA on June 10, 2020, 01:25:19 PM

WAY too early 2021 preseason top 25, assuming the only early departures are those players listed in CBS' 2021 Top 100 NFL Draft prospect rankings...

Oklahoma
PENN STATE
Oregon
MICHIGAN
Georgia
LSU
Texas
USC
Clemson
MINNESOTA
Alabama
OHIO STATE
IOWA
Florida
Oklahoma State
Louisville
Virginia
Auburn
WISCONSIN
Baylor
North Carolina
Virginia Tech
Notre Dame
INDIANA
Texas A&M

This means Brock Purdy is gone. But if he returns, watch out big time for Iowa State, that becomes a top 10 roster on paper.

So, what exactly is this list? Your estimate of what the preseason AP Poll will look like?
I can't see Oklahoma as preseason #1 when we don't have a QB who has had any significant playing time. Spencer Rattler (I do love the name) is supposed to be the next great thing, but there have been many guys before him with the big rep who fell flat on their faces when it came time to show it on the field.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 03:33:15 PM

Quote from: bayareabadger on June 10, 2020, 01:52:48 PM

Sixth, behind three playoff teams, Bama and UGA.

That was a pretty good ranking really.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 03:34:27 PM

Quote from: CWSooner on June 10, 2020, 03:21:16 PM

So, what exactly is this list? Your estimate of what the preseason AP Poll will look like?
I can't see Oklahoma as preseason #1 when we don't have a QB who has had any significant playing time. Spencer Rattler (I do love the name) is supposed to be the next great thing, but there have been many guys before him with the big rep who fell flat on their faces when it came time to show it on the field.

2021, next year, way too early (ha).

It's June, time for folks to get creative making up lists.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 03:38:08 PM

Some interesting questions for 2020 (I think, no doubt there are more):

1. How far does LSU slip without Burrow?
2. Michigan, can they beat OSU?
3. Will USC and Texas show signs of being back?
4. Can Florida beat Georgia?
5. How good is UNC going to be?
6. How bad is Arkansa and Rutger going to be?
7. Is Tennessee building a solid team that can compete in the East?
8. Is Minnesota for real twice in a row?
9. Does Wisconsin own the West?
10. How normal will football look this season?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on June 10, 2020, 03:47:19 PM

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 03:34:27 PM

2021, next year, way too early (ha).

It's June, time for folks to get creative making up lists.

Ay-yi-yi! How did I miss that?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: bayareabadger on June 10, 2020, 06:59:03 PM

Quote from: ELA on June 10, 2020, 02:29:14 PM

I always close with it. It's generally pretty useless. I will say two things, very conclusively (i) Oklahoma, with a little bit of guys returning to school luck is poised to be absolutely loaded; and (ii) with what Michigan should have back combined with what OSU has to replace, and the game being in Ann Arbor, if Harbaugh doesn't beat OSU next year, he does deserve to be fired.

This feels like a situation where we'll get to the beginning of 2021, see that OSU has notably more talent and assume the Buckeyes will do their thing.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on June 11, 2020, 02:09:33 AM

There should also be a WAY too early 2021 preseason bottom 25.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 07:32:38 AM

I think one can pencil in the top recruiting programs in the top ten every year until recruiting changes. Those programs reload obviously, like an Alabama. A bad year for them is 11-2, they simply out talent 9 teams they face in the regular season.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: CWSooner on June 11, 2020, 09:59:32 PM

Interesting how some perceptions change in 2-1/2 years. And how some don't.

Here's a Business Insider article on the Most Dominant Programs (https://www.businessinsider.com/bama-most-dominant-college-football-teams-2017-11), published in Nov 2017. Obviously, it's not just about P5 programs.

30. Houston
29. Louisville
28. Northern Illinois
27. Wisconsin-Whitewater
26. Oklahoma State
25. Washington
24. Iowa
23. Northwest Missouri State
22. Georgia
21. TCU
20. Penn State
19. Virginia Tech
18. Notre Dame
17. Wisconsin
16. Boise State
15. North Dakota State
14. Michigan
13. Michigan State
12. Texas
11. Stanford
10. Oregon
9. Auburn
8. Florida
7. LSU
6. Clemson
5. USC
4. Oklahoma
3. Florida State
2. Ohio State
1. Alabama

I came across this article looking for some "official" list of Helmet Programs. Which I have not found.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on December 31, 2020, 10:08:25 AM

How'd he do so far?

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/standings/

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on December 31, 2020, 10:31:47 AM

Quote from: ELA on February 23, 2020, 11:09:14 AM

#120 Liberty Flames
Independent
Danny Rocco and Turner Gill laid the foundation for a middling 1-AA independent program to eventually become an FBS school. The Flames joined the Big South in 2002, but went just 15-30 over their first four seasons. Rocco was hired in 2006, and in just his second season won a conference title, the first of 8 in 10 seasons for Liberty, with Turner Gill taking over in 2012, after Rocco left to take over at Richmond. Gill got them through their FBS transitional year, before handing it off to Hugh Freeze for their first year of full FBS membership and bowl eligibility. Freeze got the job done, going 8-5, including a Cure Bowl win over Georgia Southern. That was a senior laden team, playing a ton of awful opponents. They played a pair of FCS schools, New Mexico, New Mexico State...twice, Massachusetts and Buffalo for their wins. This year, they do again play two FCS opponents, but the overall schedule is much tougher. And the Flames boasted Phil Steele’s 1st team All-Independent running back and receiver, plus the second team quarterback...all of them are gone. The good news is that Liberty also had a second team running back, who does return, in Joshua Mack. Shedro Louis, who starred as a return man last year, could be a breakout star in a system that has plenty of carries to go around. Mack, as the #2 option a year ago, averaged over 10 carries a game, and that could give the explosive Louis plenty of touches to shine. Everything about the transfer portal seems custom designed for a coach like Freeze, and while he is getting an infusion of Power Five talent, the really interesting one is Maine grad transfer Chris Ferguson, who threw for over 5,000 yards with the Black Bears, and led them to the FCS semifinals in 2017. He almost certainly becomes the starter. But the highest pedigree talent comes in Ole Miss transfer offensive tackle Bryce Matthews, son of 11 year NFL offensive tackle Jason Matthews, who was a big time high school recruit, who chose Ole Miss over basically anyone else in the nation, including Alabama and Clemson. He certainly never lived up to those expectations, but at Liberty he should anchor an offensive line that was sneakily one of the better units in the FBS a year ago. Given the expected drop off offensively, Liberty needs a defense that underperformed a season ago to step up, and a lot of that hinges on an experienced defensive line. That group ranked #106 in line yards a year ago, and while they lose their best pass rusher from the group in Jesse Lemonier, they should be much better against the run, with the 315 Ralfs Rusins in the middle, and TreShaun Clark on the edge, coming off a surprising freshman season. The Flames were just #95 in the nation against the run last year, which, considering the schedule, ouch. But, while they allowed 4.8 ypc over the season, they were roughly 0.6 ypc better down the stretch. As Clark continues to mature, that should only improve.

KEY PLAYERS
RB Joshua Mack, Senior
RB Shedro Louis, Sophomore
WR D.J. Stubbs, Senior
.
DE TreShaun Clark, Sophomore
DT Ralfs Rusins, Senior
CB Javon Scruggs, Senior

At 10-1, these guys shattered ELA's preseason prognostication.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on December 31, 2020, 10:33:26 AM

Quote from: ELA on February 26, 2020, 12:36:40 PM

#117 San Jose State Spartans
#11 in Mountain West
I didn’t think I’d ever be writing that San Jose State fans need to hope that their incoming SEC grad transfer quarterback is anywhere close to what they had in a departing senior. But that departed senior was 2019 Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year Josh Love, the first Spartan to win a conference offensive player of the year award, going back at least to San Jose State’s move from the Big West to the WAC in 1996. And that incoming transfer is Nick Starkel, who is now on his third school in three years. He left Texas A&M for Arkansas after getting passed by Kellen Mond then left Arkansas after getting passed over there. The humorous part about San Jose State even wanting him is that Jordon Love threw for over 400 yards in a stunning upset of the Razorbacks, in Fayetteville, thanks in large part to Nick Starkel throwing 5 interceptions. He will get plenty of chances to throw the ball all over the play, thanks to a pair of returning all conference receivers, and an offensive system that doesn’t want to run, with personnel that can’t run. The Spartans ran the ball 24.6 times per game last year, 36.1% of their plays. Only Mike Leach was more run averse. It helps to play behind an elite pass blocking line, that only surrendered 14 sacks on the season. Only Air Force gave up fewer among conference teams, and they passed the ball 9.7 times per game, as opposed to 41.5. The Spartans had the second lowest sack rate in the FBS, at just 2.71%, with 29% of their sacks coming in their season ending comeback win over Fresno State. Starting left tackle Jack Snyder is back, but right tackle Quinn Oseland, and all-Mountain West guard Troy Kowalski, and their top rotational tackle and guard all graduated. Even with all of those in play last year, and an upset win in their payday SEC game, San Jose State still didn’t make it to a bowl, thanks to surrendering a 70 yard drive to UNLV in just 94 seconds, in the final 3 minutes of the game. So it’s tough to see a path there this year, particularly with Penn State replacing Arkansas as their bodybag game, and trips to Boise State, Fresno State, and San Diego State among their conference slate. The defense, which was great against the pass, but awful against the run last year, figures to be the same, as they struggle to win in the trenches with their 3-4. You can’t pull that off without a nose tackle, and starter Sailosi Latu graduated, with the two guys behind him on the depth chart, Demanuel Talauati and Terrell Townsend, both entering the transfer portal. San Jose State gave up 232 rushing ypg, on 4.8 ypc a year ago, thanks to opponents running the ball 48.2 times per game against them. Considering how weak San Jose State looks to be again at the point of attack, I’d plan on more of the same.

KEY PLAYERS
WR Tre Walker, Senior
WR Bailey Gaither, Senior
T Jack Snyder, Senior
.
LB Kyle Harmon, Junior
LB Rico Tolefree, Junior
S Jay Lenard, Senior

The MWC Champions were picked to finish 11th in the 12 team conference.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on December 31, 2020, 10:37:33 AM

Quote from: ELA on March 17, 2020, 04:39:49 PM

#94 Ball State Cardinals
#6 in MAC
For a school that only has one ever trip to the MAC Championship Game, under Brady Hoke in 2008, and last won the conference in 1996, saying the Cardinals need to reach Detroit for Mike Neu to keep his job, may seem like an impossible ask, but then again, how many coaches, even at Ball State, get a fifth year, when the first four resulted in an 8-24 conference record, and no bowls? It certainly helps that Neu is a school legend, winning MAC MVP in 1993 while leading the Cardinals to a conference title, and the second bowl appearance in school history. But also, the program is trending in the right direction, going from 2 to 4 to 5 wins over the last three seasons, and now return 74% of their production, second most in the MAC. The only school above them, was Akron, who may have been the worst team in the FBS last year. Mix in the fact that Toledo, Northern Illinois and Central Michigan aren’t at recent levels, Eastern Michigan is in a rebuilding year, and they get their primary division contender, Western Michigan, at home, and it starts to make sense. If Neu doesn’t get it done this year, he never is. To get there, it’s going to start on the defensive side of the ball, led by a secondary, that should be the best in the conference. It starts with what certainly, on paper, has to be the MAC’s best cornerback pairing in Antonio Phillips and Amechi Uzodinma II, who combined for 9 interceptions a year ago, ranking first and third in the MAC last year at 0.42 and 0.36 per game. But as good as they were a year ago, it was the Cardinals stout run defense, one of the better mid-major 3-4 run defenses in the nation, that was even better. Jaylin Thomas is a proven playmaker on one outside linebacker, but for this unit to go from good, to possibly the best defense in the MAC, depends on how well they reload up the middle. Gone is senior nose tackle Chris Crumb, replaced by 300 pound true sophomore Justen Ramsey, at a spot where young guys typically struggle. Then from the second level, Jacob White, and his sure running back tackling abilities (117 tackles) are gone. Getting more backfield pressure from that spot would help. Ball State’s four leading tacklers, the aforementioned Jacob White and Jaylin Thomas, along with the graduated Ray Wilborn, and returning safety Bryce Cosby, combined for 375 tackles...and no sacks. The offense is not in bad shape either. Caleb Huntley returns for his senior year at tailback, after finishing third in the MAC with 106.3 rushing ypg last year, but Fletcher Walter, who had 726 yards on 132 carries as a reserve, is gone. Three of their top four receivers are back as well, but so is the guy under center, redshirt senior Drew Plitt. Plitt might be the most underappreciated quarterback in the conference, coming off a year where he was top three in completion percentage, touchdowns, passing yards, and passing efficiency, yet found himself entirely omitted from the conference postseason honors. His career yards per attempt is third in school history, and even spending just two years as the full time starter, he should wind up at least fourth all time in passing yards in school history. If he wins, his place in school history will be cemented right alongside his former MVP head coach, who can add to his own legacy with a conference title as both a starting quarterback and head coach.

KEY PLAYERS
RB Caleb Huntley, Senior
WR Justin Hall, Senior
G Curtis Blackwell, Senior
.
LB Jaylin Thomas, Senior
CB Antonio Phillips, Senior
CB Amechi Uzodinma II, Junior

From the middle of the pack, to the top of the MAC.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on December 31, 2020, 10:40:01 AM

Quote from: ELA on March 18, 2020, 04:48:59 PM

#93 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
#5 in Sun Belt
Asking the Chanticleers to challenge Appalachian State for a division title, after going 6-18 in three years in the Sun Belt, is asking a bit much, but expecting this team to take a massive step forward, is not. Joe Moglia taking this program from after thought to an FCS title contender was well documented, but less noted is just how unexpected their struggles in moving up to FBS have been. If they can stay healthy, this could be the year that all changes. That may seem like an obvious caveat, but this roster is loaded with returning talent, 18 returning starters, including 10 on offense; with the 5th most returning offensive production in the nation. The inefficiency of the passing game is where the most gains can be made, considering Coastal Carolina returns not one, but two starting quarterbacks. It doesn’t make a ton of sense, both Fred Payton and Bryce Carpenter have similar skill sets, both fit their spread read option style, with comparable passing numbers and finishing second and fourth on the team in rushing. You do wonder how much they are being held back by not being THE guy. Both played in every game they were healthy for, Payton getting 187 pass attempts and 54 rush attempts; with Carpenter getting 142 pass attempts and 109 rushes. When you have Isaiah Likely, who is probably the best tight end in the conference, I get the safe passing game, but they need to open it up more. Javon Heiligh led the team in receptions, averaging just 10.8 ypc. The Chanticleers were 11th in the FBS, second in the Group of Five, with a completion percentage of 66.78%, but averaged just 11.1 yards per completion, 20th lowest. The problem there is that the three leading receivers last year were the aforementioned Heiligh and Likely, along with tailback C.J. Marable. The likely breakout stars as far as deep targets go are gone due to transfer (Jai Williams) and graduation (Larry Collins Jr.). So it looks like more of the same. They do need to find some backfield help for Marable, who averaged nearly 120 all purpose yards per game, but put too many miles on his body. He averaged 17 carries per game, had the second most receptions on the team, and occasionally returned kicks. Second among tailbacks was Jacquez Hairston, who averaged less than 7 total touches per game. So why does remaining healthy matter more to Coastal Carolina than most? For all of that returning production, seemingly nobody backing them up wanted to stay, losing 12 players to transfer. Most problematic is how those guys seemed to be grouped into heavy losses at certain positions, losing three running backs, three receivers, and four linebackers. For the defense, getting defensive end Tarron Jackson back for his senior year is massive. Their defensive success is largely based off pressure generating, and he’s the best on the team at that. He was first in the Sun Belt in sacks, fifth in tackles for loss, and first among linemen in tackles. Losing Sterling Jackson, the best penetrating interior lineman, will hurt that, but C.J. Brewer is a space eater, who should continue to take up blockers to Jackson to keep making plays. For now Jackson is my preseason Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year.

KEY PLAYERS
RB C.J. Marable, Senior
WR Javon Heiligh, Junior
TE Isaiah Likely, Junior
.
DE Tarron Jackson, Senior
DT C.J. Brewer, Senior
LB Teddy Gallagher, Senior

Another middle of the road team wears the Sun Title-Belt.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: FearlessF on December 31, 2020, 10:42:59 AM

2020

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on December 31, 2020, 10:43:51 AM

Quote from: ELA on April 06, 2020, 01:59:24 PM

#71 Northwestern Wildcats
#11 in Big Ten
Northwestern kept pushing just how far they could go with as inept an offense as they had year in and year out, and it finally bit them. In fairness, they reached the Big Ten title game the year prior with the #94 SP+ offense, relying solely on the #30 defense. Their defense actually improved in 2019, up to #27, but their offense fell off a cliff to #123, which resulted in a flip from 8-1 in conference play, to 1-8. It was the worst season in Evanston since they went winless in Big Ten play in Gary Barnett’s final season, in 1998. That was finally the impetus for Pat Fitzgerald to move on from Mick McCall, who had been his offensive coordinator since 2008, and bring in Mike Bajakian from Boston College. It was time for a fresh start, but this hire is not exactly inspiring. Bajakian was Butch Jones’ offensive coordinator across three different schools (Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Tennessee) from 2007-2014. He then spent four years in the NFL as quarterbacks coach with the Buccaneers “grooming” top pick Jameis Winston. Yikes. But Boston College’s offense, particularly the passing game, saw significant improvement in his one year there. That’s what impact Fitzgerald has to hope he has on his quarterbacks, who were absolutely awful last year, averaging an FBS worst 4.5 ypa. The Wildcats were getting T.J. Green back, following a season ending injury in 2018, and more importantly, adding Clemson transfer Hunter Johnson, a former 5 star recruit. Green got hurt again, Johnson was horrible, and third stringer, Aidan Smith, who hadn’t attempted a pass through his first three seasons, ended the year as the starter, and best option. All three are back in 2020, but the Johnson disaster did not scare Fitzgerald away from hitting the transfer portal again. This time adding Peyton Ramsey as a grad transfer from Indiana. Ramsey was second in the Big Ten in completion percentage last year, fourth in QBR. If the quarterback play is merely decent this year, instead of worst in the FBS, the offense could actually be ok. True freshman Drake Anderson, didn’t exactly call back the dynamic offenses his father played for in Evanston at the turn of the millennium, but considering the loaded boxes he was facing, he stayed healthy, and was moderately effective. They may have stumbled into something late with Evan Hull, who only played in four games, but averaged over 6 ypc; and they have to hope Isaiah Bowser regains his form. He was arguably the second best tailback over the second half of 2018, but never got on track in 2019. While the offensive line was the main problem in 2018, it was actually decent last year, and now returns four starters, including All-Big Ten tackle Rashawn Slater. They could be one of the five best units in the conference. If the offense is just like #80 or so in SP+, the team could be a major bounce back candidate, because the defense appears to be absolutely loaded, particularly in the back seven. They return 8 starters from a top 30 defense a year ago, led by linebacker Paddy Fisher, who could be preseason Big Ten defensive player of the year. The Wildcats’ have the #17 projected SP+ defense for this year.

KEY PLAYERS
RB Drake Anderson, Sophomore
WR Riley Lees, Senior
WR Rashawn Slater, Senior
.
LB Paddy Fisher, Senior
LB Blake Gallagher, Senior
S Travis Whillock, Senior

On the outside of the B1G Top Ten looking in, they win the B1G West outright.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on December 31, 2020, 10:45:18 AM

Quote from: ELA on April 07, 2020, 02:59:01 PM

#70 BYU Cougars
Independent
Zach Wilson took control of the starting quarterback job as a freshman, and never (willingly) gave up the job. The problem was that he missed three games with an injury, and Baylor Ramsey and Jaren Hall came in and were arguably better. They each had a higher completion percentage, and passing efficiency, while not suffering the interception issues that Wilson did. It would have been an interesting spring battle, but now you do wonder if Kalani Sitake, who is firmly on the hot seat after a 27-25 start to his career after four seasons, is willing to now let a quarterback competition extend into fall practice. He already has a lower winning percentage through four years than Gary Crowton did in between LaVell Edwards and Bronco Mendenhall, and Crowton didn’t get a fifth season. Assuming it is still Wilson, he’ll be aided by what could be a really good running game. Things started to really round into form late in the season, averaging 5.9 ypc over the final quarter of the season, sixth best in the FBS. Nine different Cougars got at least 23 carries last year, so it truly was a running back by committee approach, but for some reason, the most effective, freshman Sione Finau only got 59 carries, despite averaging 6.1 ypc. He also missed four games with injuries, but a first full season in a college weight program could see him be even better. They add grad transfer Devonta’e Henry-Cole from rival Utah, who had an up and down career, that saw him averaged 5.25 ypc over two seasons with the Utes, but only got 89 carries, and those two seasons straddled an entire lost 2018 season due to a wrist injury. He’s probably the most talented back on the roster though, and maybe now gets a consistent opportunity. Considering how divided out the carries were last year, mixed with the mess at receiver, both should get 100+ carries this year. And that mess at receiver is a big one, with BYU’s top three wideouts all graduating. They did catch a break in tight end Matt Bushman, who would have been drafted, electing to return for his senior year. He actually led the team last year in both receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Last year was a reboot year on defense, that was expected. So falling from #18 to #63 in ypp allowed is not necessarily the issue. It as that they failed to establish the guys going forward to actually make it a rebuilding year. So the defense enters 2019 really no better off than they were last year. Aside from linebacker Isaiah Kaufusi, you could tell me just about any projected starter was not actually still starting by the end of the year, and I wouldn’t find it necessarily surprising. They do have a deep rotation at linebacker, one that can withstand injury, so maybe through mixing and matching around Kaufusi they find a really good group, with eight of nine players from last year’s three deep return. BYU always made their mark on that side of the ball by being nasty in the trenches, and the 2019 Cougars simply were not that, with just 4.31% sack rate, bottom 20 in the FBS. And it was just 2.0% on standard downs, fifth worst. They weren’t good against the run either, sacrificing 2.73 line yards per play, in the bottom 25. That’s simply not the BYU mentality I’m familiar with.

KEY PLAYERS
QB Zach Wilson, Junior
TE Matt BUshman, Senior
C James Empey, Junior
.
LB Isaiah Kaufusi, Senior
LB Kavika Fonua, Senior
LB Payton Wilgar, Sophomore

11-1, albeit against a much weaker schedule than initially anticipated.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on December 31, 2020, 10:53:08 AM

Quote from: ELA on May 27, 2020, 07:48:04 PM

#13 Michigan Wolverines
#5 in Big Ten
For Michigan there is no measure of success other than beating Ohio State, to reach Indianapolis. Harbaugh has flipped the Michigan State rivalry back, and avoided bad losses. But I think we’ve reached a point where Michigan either gets past the Buckeyes, or they don’t. 7-5 and a Holiday Bowl probably feels about the same as 10-2 and a Citrus Bowl to Wolverines fans at this point. The problem is, over the past four seasons, the years Michigan I think has had the better team (2016 and 2018), they had to go to Columbus, and they got home games in the years they were clearly inferior. Problem this year is Ohio State is both better, and at home. I think that flips next year, but in May of 2020 the last thing Michigan fans want to hear is “wait til November 2021”. The offense should be interesting, with coordinator Josh Gattis with a full year under his belt. All of the reports are that the starting quarterback is a battle between Dylan McCaffrey and Joe Milton, but I think everyone would be shocked if it’s anyone but McCaffrey. Shea Patterson regressed during his time in Ann Arbor, and some fresh blood back there should be good. Obviously the strength of the offense is the running backs, bolstered by the return of Chris Evans after missing all of 2019 with academic issues. The speedster joins the workhorse Zach Charbonnet, and Hassan Haskins, the breakout surprise of the 2019 offense. The Wolverines ran the ball only the 9th most frequently in the Big Ten last year. I think that needs to be up in the top four, depending on the offensive line play. And as obviously as the running backs are the strength of the offense, the line is the weakness. They have to break in four new starters, although when the one returning starter, Jalen Mayfield, is projected to possibly be the first tackle off the board in the 2021 NFL Draft, weakness is relative. While on paper Michigan should have had the best receivers in the conference last year, Donovan Peoples-Jones never learned how to run a route, and Tarik Black couldn’t stay healthy. I think their departure may actually lead to a better overall group. The more you get the ball into the hands of Giles Jackson, the better. The defensive line might lack the depth they had a couple years ago, but the starting four might be the best Don Brown has had to work with. Don Brown’s lines usually benefit from the constantly blitzing linebackers, but that might not necessarily be the case as much this year, so it’s a good year to have a group up front that should be able to get so much done on their own. Cam McGrone showed a lot of potential last year as a redshirt freshman, but also made some critical freshman mistakes. He better grow up in a hurry, because he’s just about the only certainty for Michigan at that level. Much like the line, the secondary has some really high top end players, but some questions behind them. Cornerback Ambry Thomas has always been underappreciated by the media, under Jeremy Clark, David Long and Lavert Hill. I think Thomas is better than all those guys, and now has a chance to show it. Daxton Hill showed right away as a true freshman why Alabama tried so hard to flip him. Depending on what you consider Jabrill Peppers to be, Hill is on a trajectory to be the best safety Michigan has had since Corwin Brown.

KEY PLAYERS
RB Zach Charbonnet, Sophomore
WR Nico Collins, Senior
TE Nick Eubanks, Senior
.
DE Kwity Paye, Senior
DT Carlo Kemp, Senior
CB Ambry Thomas, Senior

:57:

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on December 31, 2020, 10:58:26 AM

So yeah, a pretty good showing. Only a handful of way off picks, on a cursory glance.

He was 4/5 on P5 champions, with his lone miss picking Florida over Bama.

Just goes to show how unpredictable this stuff can be, even if a fella is as "plugged in" as ELA.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on December 31, 2020, 11:32:14 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on December 31, 2020, 10:58:26 AM

So yeah, a pretty good showing. Only a handful of way off picks, on a cursory glance.

He was 4/5 on P5 champions, with his lone miss picking Florida over Bama.

Just goes to show how unpredictable this stuff can be, even if a fella is as "plugged in" as ELA.

Do I really get credit for Oregon?

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on December 31, 2020, 11:36:17 AM

Well yeah, that's arguably the most amazing pick really.

Clemson, OSU, Oklahoma? Obvious. Bama was obvious too, but Florida was your "venturing out on a limb" pick. But Oregon? And it panned out? Incredible.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: rolltidefan on December 31, 2020, 12:01:36 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on December 31, 2020, 11:36:17 AM

Well yeah, that's arguably the most amazing pick really.

Clemson, OSU, Oklahoma? Obvious. Bama was obvious too, but Florida was your "venturing out on a limb" pick. But Oregon? And it panned out? Incredible.

the uf pic wasn't outlandish either. almost went 5-5.

Title: Re: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
Post by: ELA on December 31, 2020, 02:50:58 PM

Quote from: rolltidefan on December 31, 2020, 12:01:36 PM

the uf pic wasn't outlandish either. almost went 5-5.

Up until about a month ago, it looked a lot better than the Oklahoma pick

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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on February 14, 2020, 11:51:42 AM