| #10 Minnesota Golden Gophers |
| #4 in Big Ten |
I’m not even going to bother looking it up. This has to be the highest I’ve ever had the Gophers...comfortably. And hey, why not, Minnesota returns 9 starters, the 13th most production in the nation, from a group that finished second to Ohio State in ypp. This Gopher offense is a far cry from what we have become used to. Even the two losses, running back Rodney Smith and receiver Tyler Johnson, the team’s leading rusher and receiver, are not as big a loss as they might be for most teams. Mohamed Ibrahim was among the top backs in the conference once he seized the starting job over the second half of 2018, he was just too often not the hot hand last year in the three running back rotation, at least in the eyes of the staff. His 5.3 ypc was actually better than Smith’s 5.1, and he only had 1 carry all year (out of 114) where he failed to at least get back to the line of scrimmage. The problem is not the top end, it’s losing 2/3 of their running back rotation from an offense that ran the ball 61.2% of the time, 15th most nationally. There are no obvious answers as who can fill out at least a two man rotation. Maybe an improved passing game is the answer. While Tyler Johnson was the team’s leading receiver, Minnesota boasted BOTH first team All-Big Ten receivers, and the ceiling for the returning Rashod Bateman is way higher, who Mel Kiper has as the #8 overall prospect in the 2021 Draft, the top receiver. Minnesota hasn’t had a first round pick since Laurence Maroney in 2006, and Bateman seems a lock to break that, and could be the highest pick for the school since Carl Eller went #6 in 1964, their last top 12 pick. Kirk Ciarocca deserved more mention for the work he did with this offense last year. Penn State was so sick of watching receivers running wide open 20 yards downfield against them, that they hired him away. The job is now up to Mike Sanford Jr., who ascended to a head coaching job at Western Kentucky too quickly, but had a solid record, albeit a short one, prior to that. And he was the coordinator last year at Utah State, also working with the quarterbacks, where Jordan Love was a first round pick in the Draft this year. Love entered the year as a fairly highly thought of prospect, but Gopher fans hopes he can produce a second high NFL quarterback pick in Tanner Morgan. Morgan completed 66% of his passes last year, led the Big Ten in passing yards per game, and was second to only Justin Fields in touchdown passes and passer rating. As mentioned earlier, they didn’t ask Morgan to throw the ball a ton, but when he did, it was to go downfield, which is why that completion percentage is so impressive. The Gopher passing attack was not based on simply taking what the defense gave them. The Gophers’ 15.7 yards per completion was 6th highest in the country (behind Oklahoma, Louisville and the three military academies) the highest for any Big Ten team in the last four years. The problem is on defense, particularly the front seven which is a near total rebuild. The early (sort of, he’s like 42 but with eligibility remaining) departure of Antoine Winfield Jr. turns what could have been the best secondary in the conference into merely a good one, led by a really underrated pair of cornerbacks. How that front develops will determine whether this is just another good Minnesota team, or whether they can break through Wisconsin, get to Indianapolis, and maybe play in a New Years Six Bowl, for the first time since the 1962 Rose Bowl. Either way, P.J. Fleck, who currently has the #9 recruiting class in the country, seems to have things trending in the right direction.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| QB | Tanner Morgan, Junior |
| WR | Rashod Bateman, Junior |
| G | Blaise Andries, Junior |
| . |
| CB | Coney Durr, Senior |
| CB | Benjamin St. Juste, Senior |
| S | Jordan Howden, Junior |
| #9 Oklahoma State Cowboys |
| #2 in Big XII |
The story of the 2019 offseason, insofar as it impacts 2020 is the number of skill position players who will be returning this year. While many were first and second year players who had to, I can’t remember this many running backs who could have gone pro, who didn’t. That’s typically the one position I say, you should go, if you are projected to be no better than a third or fourth round pick. The fact that Chuba Hubbard is not even the best running back to postpone his NFL eligibility is shocking. Perhaps even more shocking, is that he wasn’t the only Poke to postpone his pro career, as receivers Tylan Wallace and Dillon Stoner, who both earned All-Big XII honors, and combined for 105 receptions, 1502 yards, and 13 touchdowns, also returned. Wallace, particularly, is a surprise, after missing the end of last season with a torn ACL. They join All-Big XII tight end Jelani Woods, and quarterback Spencer Saunders, who got the starting nod as a freshman, in what is probably the most talented offensive skill position collection on paper outside of Clemson. The only issue may be depth, a year after losing Saunders and Wallace to injury, due to a reserve running back, tight end, and four receivers transferring out. The line is bolstered by the addition of West Virginia transfer Josh Sills, who was All-Big XII in 2018, but missed 2019 with an injury. Oklahoma State has had offenses that were plenty talented before though. They’ll score enough points to potentially beat every team on their schedule, including Oklahoma and Texas. Finally passing the Sooners, and winning their first conference title since 2011, their third since 1953, depends on their defense, and for the first time during the Mike Gundy era, the Cowboys might be up to the task. The Cowboys had the #53 SP+ defense last year. Their 2020 projections have them #38. That would have been enough plenty of times in the Mike Gundy era, and with 10 starters returning, 8th most production nationally, most in the Big XII, it doesn’t necessarily seem like a reach. The back seven, particularly, looks to be strong, and that’s the biggest part of the battle, but the line has to improve. Overall their metrics looked solid, but the two areas they were worst in were passing down line yards (#90 in FBS) and power success rate (#92). Typically that kind of showing, being bad on obvious passing downs and short down situations would suggest a team that struggled to get off the field on 3rd and 4th downs. But that wasn’t the case at all, finishing middle of the pack in 3rd down defense, and best in the Big XII in 4th down defense, the only unit with a better than 60% success rate. If you are looking for regression, it might come from there. When your base defense features just two linebackers, and both guys received All-Big XII honors, that figures to be the strength. The secondary looks fine at safety, but could use a cornerback to step up, a year after being the lone conference team with multiple pick sixes. Four of the first six games are at home, with the road trips being to TCU and Kansas. So there is a very good chance that Oklahoma State could be 6-0 heading to Norman for Bedlam.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| RB | Chuba Hubbard, Junior |
| WR | Tylan Wallace, Senior |
| WR | Dillon Stoner, Senior |
| . |
| LB | Amen Ogbongbemiga, Senior |
| LB | Malcolm Rodriguez, Senior |
| S | Kolby Harvell-Peel, Junior |
