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#13 Michigan Wolverines

#5 in Big Ten

 All of the reports are that the starting quarterback is a battle between Dylan McCaffrey and Joe Milton, but I think everyone would be shocked if it’s anyone but McCaffrey.  

How much playing time has Milton seen? I know McCaffrey's hit the field, and that experience alone should put him behind center @ Washington in the opener. After Washington Michigan plays two cupcakes before facing a pretty dang hard schedule. 

When was the last time that the Wolverines didn't crack the ELA Top Ten?

#11 in 2018

So, the USC-Bama game, if played, should be worth watching.

#11 Alabama Crimson Tide

#3 in SEC

Will this end up being too low?  Probably.  I think this is the first time I’ve had Alabama outside my top 5, let alone my top 10, since 2008.  That team wound up going 12-0, and losing to eventual national champion Florida in the SEC Championship Game.  Alabama loses talent to the NFL every year, so it’s not only that, it’s the amount of offensive NFL talent they lost, to pair with a defense that really struggled against better competition last year.  In the past, even in the years where the skill position talent was a tick down, you could always count on the defense to be stifling.  The Crimson Tide hadn’t allowed 46 points in a game since 2003.  They did twice in a month last year.  Going back to the end of 2018, they’ve had 28 points scored on them 7 times in the past 16 games.  As many as in the previous 5 years combined.  Sounds like a harsh start, but I’m still nervous putting them this low, it’s still Alabama.  There is still plenty of talent.  I’m just worried that the defense won’t be much better than last year, and the offense might not be elite enough to bail them out.  Now don’t worry, the offense should still be plenty good, because of the guys who did decide to return for their senior year, leading rusher Najee Harris, and wideout DeVonta Smith, who should be in for a monster year with both Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs gone.  Mac Jones is no Tua, but he played well enough down the stretch last year.  You can’t totally fault him for the Auburn loss, he threw for over 300 yards, 4 touchdowns, and Alabama scored 45 points, the most the program has ever scored in a loss.  But he also threw two pick sixes, a not insignificant reason that 45 wasn’t enough.  The door is open wide enough that incoming Bryce Young is getting plenty of talk, despite Nick Saban being reluctant to insert true freshmen into that starting quarterback role...National Title games aside.  Although Sban has actually never brought a quarterback to Tuscaloosa rated as highly as Young.  The last time Alabama landed the composite #1 quarterback recruit?  2001 with Brodie Croyle.  They will also benefit from an offensive line that returns multiple all-SEC performers, albeit from a group that underperformed last year, by their lofty standards.  They ranked outside the top 20 for the first time since FootballOutsiders began tracking line yards in 2014, only ranking outside the top 6 one other time.  But this all comes back to the defense, whose numbers still looked ok overall, because of their ability to shut down inferior opponents, but who failed too often in big games, and have to replace all five of their All-SEC players from a year ago.  It was the worst Tide defense, by ypp, in seven years, but in fairness, the way Alabama played offense put more staring on their defense than most Saban defenses faced.  Any hope of improvement begins with the two injured starting linebackers, Dylan Moses and Joshua McMillon, returning at 100%, after both missed all of last season with injuries.  But the line, and the secondary, aside from Patrick Surtain Jr., are massive question marks (again Alabama standard caveat).  The best pass rushers on the Crimson Tide, may come from their freshman class, in Will Anderson and Chris Braswell, the #1 and #2 rated defensive ends in the nation.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Najee Harris, Senior
WR	DeVonta Smith, Senior
T	Alex Leatherwood, Senior
	.
LB	Shane Lee, Sophomore
LB	Christian Harris, Sophomore
CB	Patrick Surtain II, Junior

Kind of a change to see two East teams and no West teams in the SEC in this ranking.  

The comment about how Michigan would realistically be 11-1 or 8-4 with the same quality team seems accurate.  Assuming no huge upsets, their schedule is:

@ Waskington
Wisconsin
Penn State
@ Minnesota
@ Ohio State

@ MSU could be dicey.

Any top 10-15 team could finish 8-4 with that slate even if ranked properly.  A 10-2 finish would suggest to me they are top ten easily, maybe top 6.

Michigan has an absolutely brutal schedule.  Geez.

Normally, catching Minnesota could be viewed as a break, but not so much today.  Getting Wisconsin and PSU at home is a bit of a break.  I guess getting OSU on the road could be considered a break in the sense it means someone else will be at home this time around.