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Topic: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown
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Cincydawg · « **Reply #476 on:** May 25, 2020, 03:01:53 PM »

LSU would really be suffering to lose more than four games, AT Florida, Alabama, AT Auburn, AT A&M. They get Texas at home and could lose that one early. They have three pastries OOC. The get South Carolina from the East in BR, and Miss State in BR.

I can see 9-3 as a midpoint, 8-4 possible, 10-2 somewhat possible. If they manage 11-1, Coach O should be COTY or close to it. But then, Joe Burrow was All World last year.

FearlessF · « **Reply #477 on:** May 25, 2020, 06:53:07 PM »

who's replacing Joe?

I would give Pelini a better chance to suceed than Myles Brennan

bayareabadger · « **Reply #478 on:** May 25, 2020, 07:29:55 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on May 25, 2020, 06:53:07 PM

who's replacing Joe?

I would give Pelini a better chance to suceed than Myles Brennan

Scott Linehan, a longtime NFL HC and OC, took over as passing game coordinator. Steve Ensminger technically never stopped being OC. They had two "WR coaches" last year, so the other one just holds the title alone now. (Brady was PGC/WR and kinda shadow OC for context)

No idea what comes with Brennan. He was a good, not elite QB out of HS. He's a fourth-year JR. Will be interesting to watch for sure.

CatsbyAZ · « **Reply #479 on:** May 26, 2020, 11:05:10 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 25, 2020, 03:01:53 PM

LSU would really be suffering to lose more than four games, AT Florida, Alabama, AT Auburn, AT A&M. They get Texas at home and could lose that one early. They have three pastries OOC. The get South Carolina from the East in BR, and Miss State in BR.

I can see 9-3 as a midpoint, 8-4 possible, 10-2 somewhat possible. If they manage 11-1, Coach O should be COTY or close to it. But then, Joe Burrow was All World last year.

Given what we've seen of Orgeron's coaching without Burrow, I'd put the midpoint at 8-4. 1 - 3 Vs Florida, Alabama, Auburn, & A&M. And loss somewhere between Texas or somebody they shouldn't lose to, like the MS schools, as happens with LSU before last season. 8-4 going into a bowl.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #480 on:** May 26, 2020, 11:11:37 AM »

Auburn strikes me as a team lately ranked pretty high and then has a rather modest season. I'd add A&M to that group. Of course, either or both could prove me wrong this year.

I suspect LSU has the horses to split with that pair.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #481 on:** May 26, 2020, 11:24:38 AM »

Now that the G5 is gone, I anticipate that the Pac 12 and B1G West will both be next up on the chopping block.

ELA · « **Reply #482 on:** May 26, 2020, 10:31:26 PM »

#14 Auburn Tigers

#4 in SEC

The marriage of Gus Malzahn and Chad Morris running the Auburn offense, should be interesting, if nothing else. At one point, nearly a decade ago, they may have been viewed as the top two offensive coordinators in the nation. Morris followed Malzahn (with a gap year) as offensive coordinator at Tulsa, and for five days in December of 2011, after Morris signed his extension with Clemson, but before Malzahn took the Arkansas State head coaching job, they were tied for the highest paid assistant coach in the nation. Following Morris’ disastrous two year run at Arkansas, and with Malzahn going 26-23 in SEC games since his 2013 BCS Championship Game appearance, they need each other to salvage their own reputations. One thing Morris has to work with, that he didn’t in Fayetteville, is a quarterback, in true sophomore Bo Nix. Nix had his freshman moments, but considering he was an 18 year old, who faced 7 top 20 teams, his 63.8 QBR is really good. It was better than Missouri’s Kelly Bryant, the most sought after quarterback in last year’s transfer market; or Wake Forest’s Jamie Newman, the most sought after in this year’s. I think the less Malzahn interferes here the better. Morris groomed DeShaun Watson, and while he and Malzahn agree on a lot of formation and pace issues, Morris’ offense suits Nix better, who is plenty mobile, but isn’t going to win with his legs. I expect Nix to take a big step forward as a passer under Morris. That’s just the start of the making of a really talented group of skill position players, with probably the best group of receivers in the SEC. Unless you think Ja’Marr Chase and anybody is the best group. Like Chase, Seth Williams would have been a high draft pick, were he not a true sophomore. Instead he returns to the Plains to headline a deep group with the ultimate possession guy in Eli Stove, and a burner in Anthony Schwartz. Schwartz, who was set to decide between football and track after the season, may end up getting pushed to track now, with the Olympics getting pushed back to 2021. Schwartz set a World Youth record in the 100 meter in 2017, winning silver in the U20 Worlds in 2018, and being named the Gatorade 2018 High School Male Track Athlete of the Year. The timeline now works better for him to run in Tokyo, and it’s certainly easier to continue to train as a runner than a football player during this. The running back room is also deep, but leading rusher JaTarvious Whitlow put his name in the transfer portal. He hasn’t picked a destination, so there is still a chance he could return, but it seems unlikely. How much room those guys have to operate depends on how four new bodies on the offensive line gel around returning starting center Nick Brahms. The line was solid in pass blocking, but struggled to create running room. Taking a grad transfer from Akron, the worst rushing team in the nation, doesn’t give me much confidence that the staff has confidence in the guys coming back. The defense is going to have to lean heavily on a stellar group of linebackers, after heavy losses along the line and secondary, each of which only returns one starter. If Big Kat Bryant can finally put it all together, that will help a lot on the line, where the Tigers seem to always have someone ready to step up. Losing both cornerbacks probably hurts more than losing the nation’s best defensive lineman, in Derrick Brown.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Bo Nix, Sophomore
WR	Seth Williams, Junior
C	Nick Brahms, Junior
	.
LB	K.J. Britt, Junior
LB	Zakoby McClain, Junior
S	Christian Tutt, Junior

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #483 on:** May 26, 2020, 10:44:28 PM »

Quote from: CWSooner on May 25, 2020, 12:25:14 AM

So who goes out first, Auburn or Oklahoma State? Oklahoma State, I imagine.

Nope.

CWSooner · « **Reply #484 on:** May 27, 2020, 01:46:04 AM »

Learn something new every day.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #485 on:** May 27, 2020, 07:15:56 AM »

So, the SEC is down to three teams, eh? I might give the edge to LSU over Auburn on talent, maybe, but this is close enough, I think.

CatsbyAZ · « **Reply #486 on:** May 27, 2020, 02:06:09 PM »

Quote from: ELA on May 26, 2020, 10:31:26 PM

#14 Auburn Tigers
#4 in SEC

Good write up ELA. Nix seems to me in the type of situation warranting one of those big sophomore slumps, which, in the case of Malzahn is common. Probably the biggest on-going disappointment of an otherwise steady Malzahn era is the lack of QB development. Stidham never got better. Neither did Greg Marshall. Or Sean White. Of course, maybe Chad Morris will trend this the other way, but don't count on it right away.

Having a lot of Auburn friends these days, they strike me as one of the only southern fan bases with reasonable expectations. They are mostly satisfied with going 9-4 as long as they take down any one of Alabama, Georgia, or LSU every year, which they do. If you go back through Auburn's W/L record under Malzahn it's mostly 8-5 & 9-4 seasons, but thanks to the boost of difficult SEC scheduling those 8-5/9-4 seasons are also Sugar Bowl or Peach Bowl NY6 seasons. Biggest complaint I hear about Malzahn is that he's overpaid.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #487 on:** May 27, 2020, 02:22:24 PM »

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/auburn/index.html

If they are preseason top ten, they don't end up there.

ELA · « **Reply #488 on:** May 27, 2020, 07:48:04 PM »

#13 Michigan Wolverines

#5 in Big Ten

For Michigan there is no measure of success other than beating Ohio State, to reach Indianapolis. Harbaugh has flipped the Michigan State rivalry back, and avoided bad losses. But I think we’ve reached a point where Michigan either gets past the Buckeyes, or they don’t. 7-5 and a Holiday Bowl probably feels about the same as 10-2 and a Citrus Bowl to Wolverines fans at this point. The problem is, over the past four seasons, the years Michigan I think has had the better team (2016 and 2018), they had to go to Columbus, and they got home games in the years they were clearly inferior. Problem this year is Ohio State is both better, and at home. I think that flips next year, but in May of 2020 the last thing Michigan fans want to hear is “wait til November 2021”. The offense should be interesting, with coordinator Josh Gattis with a full year under his belt. All of the reports are that the starting quarterback is a battle between Dylan McCaffrey and Joe Milton, but I think everyone would be shocked if it’s anyone but McCaffrey. Shea Patterson regressed during his time in Ann Arbor, and some fresh blood back there should be good. Obviously the strength of the offense is the running backs, bolstered by the return of Chris Evans after missing all of 2019 with academic issues. The speedster joins the workhorse Zach Charbonnet, and Hassan Haskins, the breakout surprise of the 2019 offense. The Wolverines ran the ball only the 9th most frequently in the Big Ten last year. I think that needs to be up in the top four, depending on the offensive line play. And as obviously as the running backs are the strength of the offense, the line is the weakness. They have to break in four new starters, although when the one returning starter, Jalen Mayfield, is projected to possibly be the first tackle off the board in the 2021 NFL Draft, weakness is relative. While on paper Michigan should have had the best receivers in the conference last year, Donovan Peoples-Jones never learned how to run a route, and Tarik Black couldn’t stay healthy. I think their departure may actually lead to a better overall group. The more you get the ball into the hands of Giles Jackson, the better. The defensive line might lack the depth they had a couple years ago, but the starting four might be the best Don Brown has had to work with. Don Brown’s lines usually benefit from the constantly blitzing linebackers, but that might not necessarily be the case as much this year, so it’s a good year to have a group up front that should be able to get so much done on their own. Cam McGrone showed a lot of potential last year as a redshirt freshman, but also made some critical freshman mistakes. He better grow up in a hurry, because he’s just about the only certainty for Michigan at that level. Much like the line, the secondary has some really high top end players, but some questions behind them. Cornerback Ambry Thomas has always been underappreciated by the media, under Jeremy Clark, David Long and Lavert Hill. I think Thomas is better than all those guys, and now has a chance to show it. Daxton Hill showed right away as a true freshman why Alabama tried so hard to flip him. Depending on what you consider Jabrill Peppers to be, Hill is on a trajectory to be the best safety Michigan has had since Corwin Brown.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Zach Charbonnet, Sophomore
WR	Nico Collins, Senior
TE	Nick Eubanks, Senior
	.
DE	Kwity Paye, Senior
DT	Carlo Kemp, Senior
CB	Ambry Thomas, Senior

Mdot21 · « **Reply #489 on:** May 27, 2020, 08:37:39 PM »

Quote from: ELA on May 27, 2020, 07:48:04 PM

#13 Michigan Wolverines
#5 in Big Ten
For Michigan there is no measure of success other than beating Ohio State, to reach Indianapolis. Harbaugh has flipped the Michigan State rivalry back, and avoided bad losses. But I think we’ve reached a point where Michigan either gets past the Buckeyes, or they don’t. 7-5 and a Holiday Bowl probably feels about the same as 10-2 and a Citrus Bowl to Wolverines fans at this point. The problem is, over the past four seasons, the years Michigan I think has had the better team (2016 and 2018), they had to go to Columbus, and they got home games in the years they were clearly inferior. Problem this year is Ohio State is both better, and at home. I think that flips next year, but in May of 2020 the last thing Michigan fans want to hear is “wait til November 2021”. The offense should be interesting, with coordinator Josh Gattis with a full year under his belt. All of the reports are that the starting quarterback is a battle between Dylan McCaffrey and Joe Milton, but I think everyone would be shocked if it’s anyone but McCaffrey. Shea Patterson regressed during his time in Ann Arbor, and some fresh blood back there should be good. Obviously the strength of the offense is the running backs, bolstered by the return of Chris Evans after missing all of 2019 with academic issues. The speedster joins the workhorse Zach Charbonnet, and Hassan Haskins, the breakout surprise of the 2019 offense. The Wolverines ran the ball only the 9th most frequently in the Big Ten last year. I think that needs to be up in the top four, depending on the offensive line play. And as obviously as the running backs are the strength of the offense, the line is the weakness. They have to break in four new starters, although when the one returning starter, Jalen Mayfield, is projected to possibly be the first tackle off the board in the 2021 NFL Draft, weakness is relative. While on paper Michigan should have had the best receivers in the conference last year, Donovan Peoples-Jones never learned how to run a route, and Tarik Black couldn’t stay healthy. I think their departure may actually lead to a better overall group. The more you get the ball into the hands of Giles Jackson, the better. The defensive line might lack the depth they had a couple years ago, but the starting four might be the best Don Brown has had to work with. Don Brown’s lines usually benefit from the constantly blitzing linebackers, but that might not necessarily be the case as much this year, so it’s a good year to have a group up front that should be able to get so much done on their own. Cam McGrone showed a lot of potential last year as a redshirt freshman, but also made some critical freshman mistakes. He better grow up in a hurry, because he’s just about the only certainty for Michigan at that level. Much like the line, the secondary has some really high top end players, but some questions behind them. Cornerback Ambry Thomas has always been underappreciated by the media, under Jeremy Clark, David Long and Lavert Hill. I think Thomas is better than all those guys, and now has a chance to show it. Daxton Hill showed right away as a true freshman why Alabama tried so hard to flip him. Depending on what you consider Jabrill Peppers to be, Hill is on a trajectory to be the best safety Michigan has had since Corwin Brown.

KEY PLAYERS
RB Zach Charbonnet, Sophomore
WR Nico Collins, Senior
TE Nick Eubanks, Senior
.
DE Kwity Paye, Senior
DT Carlo Kemp, Senior
CB Ambry Thomas, Senior

Nice write up. Pretty much agree with everything word for word. Agree 100% on Ambry Thomas. He is better than all those guys and he’s got a shot to be a 1st rd pick if he takes another jump in year 2 as a starter. He will torch the combine in the 40 and the shuttle- and he’s a legitimate 6 ft- so as long as he has the kind of season he’s capable of 1st rd isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Dax Hill flashed special ability as a true frosh. He’s my pick for breakout player on defense in 2020.

Michigan is a weird team. Could see them going 8-4 or 11-1. Solid base on defense but lots of question marks on offense, particularly replacing 4 OL starters and the QB.

Like you I’d be shocked if McCaffrey isn’t the guy to start out at least. If he struggles wouldn’t be shocked to see them give Milton a shot. His raw ability is super enticing. Harbaugh however is 1000000% not the guy to develop that ability. Lincoln Riley or Ryan Day with a kid with Milton’s talents? Now you might have something there.

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Topic: 2020 ELA 130 Team Countdown

Cincydawg

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FearlessF

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bayareabadger

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CatsbyAZ

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Cincydawg

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Brutus Buckeye

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ELA

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Brutus Buckeye

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CWSooner

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Cincydawg

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CatsbyAZ

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Cincydawg

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ELA

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Mdot21

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