2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

As an MSU fan, who would you rather face?

I think OSU's a more consistent team, but I think Purdue is more dangerous when they actually bring their 'A' game...

If I were an MSU fan, I'd rather play tOSU again.  I think the Buckeyes were gassed at the end of the game in East Lansing yesterday and that will not get better if they are playing their second game in 24 hours while MSU is well rested.  

I've always liked teams playing in their second (but not third) game because way back when we had the 11 team tournament #6 almost always beat #3 and #7/10 and #8/9 always seemed to play closer than expected with #1 and #2.  That said, it isn't likely to work when you are short handed like the Buckeyes so I just can't see Ohio State getting to the weekend even if they do beat Purdue.  

What do you think, @bwarbiany , about the tOSU/PU match-up?  Frankly, as an Ohio State fan, I don't like it.  Ohio State handled Purdue pretty authoritatively during the regular season but that was in Columbus.  What I really don't like about this match-up is that it simply means a LOT more to Purdue than it does to Ohio State.  The Buckeyes are a #4 seed in Lunardi's latest bracket and I don't think they would move up to a #3 without getting to at least the Semi-Final on Saturday in the BTT.  Ie, they can't move up without beating both Purdue AND Michigan State.  On the flip side, losing probably only drops them to a #5 so it really doesn't matter much because that is just a jersey color issue.  What is far more important for a #4/5 seed, IMHO, is which bracket they go to and that has almost nothing to do with the PU/tOSU result and could actually be more favorable with a loss.  Ie, the game means very little for Ohio State.  Meanwhile, Purdue is in an obvious win-or-go-home situation.  They'll get an NIT bid either way but who cares.  The Boilermakers have to beat at least tOSU and MSU to get to the Dance.  

[847badgerfan]

Purdue is also playing a home game.

[medinabuckeye1]

Thoughts on the BTT bracket:

Wednesday:

• #11 Inidiana vs #14 Nebraska:  I think Indiana will win easily.  They are a better team with a lot to play for (currently last four in).  
• #12 Minnesota vs #13 Northwestern:  I think Minnesota will win easily.  They are a better team.  
• I have #11 and #12 moving on to Thursday.  

Thursday:

• #5 Iowa vs MN/NU:  I think it will be Minnesota and I like teams playing their second game.  Put me down for the upset.  
• #6 Penn State vs IU/UNL:  Same here, I think it will be Indiana and I like teams playing their second game.  Put me down for another upset.  
• #7 Ohio State vs #10 Purdue:  As a Buckeye fan I don't like the set-up here (see above).  Put me down for another upset.  
• #8 Rutgers vs #9 Michigan:  I think Michigan is a better team and will win.  
• I have #9, #10, #11, and #12 moving on to Friday.  

Friday:

• #1 Wisconsin vs RU/M:  I think it will be Michigan and I like their chances.  
• #2 Michigan State vs tOSU/PU:  I think it will be Purdue and I like their chances.  
• #3 Maryland vs PSU/IU/UNL:  I think Maryland will beat Indiana.  
• #4 Illinois vs IA/MN/NU:  I think Illinois will beat Minnesota.  
• I have #3, #4, #9, and #10 moving on the Saturday.  

Saturday:

• UW/M/RU vs IL/IA/MN/NU:  I think it will be Michigan over Illinois
• MSU/tOSU/PU vs UMD/PSU/IU/UNL:  I think it will be Maryland over Purdue
• I have #3 and #9 moving on to the CG

Sunday:

• UW/M/RU/IL/IA/MN/NU vs MSU/tOSU/PU/UMD/PSU/IU/UNL:  I think it will be Maryland over Michigan.  

Final records (based on my guesses above) and my guesses on NCAA:

• 17-6/27-7 Maryland, #2 seed.  
• 13-11/22-16 Michigan, #4 seed.  
• 14-7/22-10 Michigan State, #4 seed.
• 14-7/21-11 Wisconsin,  #5 seed.  
• 11-10/21-11 Ohio State, #6 seed.
• 14-8/22-11 Illinois, #7 seed.
• 11-10/20-12 Iowa, #7 seed.  
• 11-10/21-11 Penn State, #7 seed.  
• 11-10/20-12 Rutgers, #9 seed.  
• 11-12/21-13 Indiana, #10 seed*. 
• 11-12/18-16 Purdue, Play-in.
• 10-13/16-17 Minnesota, NIT. 
• 3-18/8-23 Northwestern, out.  
• 2-19/7-25 Nebraska, out.  

*I'm not sure that this actually would fit the NCAA rules because we already have three #7 seed and a #2 seed so if Indiana was a #10 then they would either have to play one of our #7's in the first round (not permitted) or else one of the 7's or 10's would possibly face Maryland in the second round. 

[MaximumSam]

I think Kaleb Wesson presents issues for Purdue because of how well he shoots the three. It gets them out of how they would prefer to play defense.  I have mixed feelings - OSU looked absolutely gassed in the second half against MSU, and they've been running with more or less a six man rotation for a while now.  I wouldn't hate to see them get bounced and get some rest.

OTOH a win or two could get them into the preferred location.  Cleveland has a spot this year, but I think that would require getting ahead of MSU in the brackets, which probably means at least getting to Sunday if not winning it (Not gonna catch Dayton).  

[ELA]

As an MSU fan, who would you rather face?

I think OSU's a more consistent team, but I think Purdue is more dangerous when they actually bring their 'A' game...

Probably OSU, certainly if Young isn't back.  They basically go 6 deep, and it showed.  OSU's lack of depth has killed them against MSU the past two seasons, the way MSU generally goes like 9 deep, and wants to run.

In the last four meetings...

In Columbus last year, OSU led 45-36 with about 18 minutes left, then MSU outscored them 50-32 the rest of the way
In East Lansing last year, OSU led by 6 at halftime, and was tied with 7:40 left, then MSU outscored them 20-2 over the final 7:40.  A C.J. Jackson 3 pointer at 7:40, was the field goal OSU made in the last 12 minutes of the game.
In the BTT last year, OSU led 40-38 early in the second half, then MSU went on a 37-14 run to push it out to a 21 point lead at the under 4 timeout, til OSU started raining three in the only crunch time minutes Loyer got in his entire life.
Yesterday, OSU tied it up with 16 minutes left, and then MSU went outscored them 38-18 until MSU started pulling seniors out.

Over those 4 games, it's been 136-135 OSU in the first half, and 170-124 MSU in the second half (and that's even with OSU having late 16-0 and 9-0 runs once MSU got the lead up over 20 with under 4 minutes left, becomes 170-99 without).

Just as built right now, OSU is a great matchup for MSU.  That said, I don't really care how MSU does, so I'd rather get some revenge for the thumping they gave us in West Lafayette

[ELA]

*I'm not sure that this actually would fit the NCAA rules because we already have three #7 seed and a #2 seed so if Indiana was a #10 then they would either have to play one of our #7's in the first round (not permitted) or else one of the 7's or 10's would possibly face Maryland in the second round.

MSU-Minnesota played in a 2-7 2nd round game last year.

[medinabuckeye1]

MSU-Minnesota played in a 2-7 2nd round game last year.

Thank you, I wasn't sure.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

What do you think, bwarbiany , about the tOSU/PU match-up? 

I don't know... It's one of those questions of which Purdue team shows up. 

That said, one of the things that Purdue has struggled with all year has been executing offense against good defenses. Rutgers (#6 nationally in defensive efficiency per KenPom) is a great example of that--we struggled to score on their court or ours. So is Iowa (#98), on the other end--we lit them up in both games because they're atrocious defensively. 

OSU (#20) is one of the better defenses in the conference. That said, Purdue did just fine against UVA (#1), MSU (#13), went 1-1 against Wisconsin (#18), and pummeled Indiana (#30) twice.

So what it really comes down to, as it has a lot for Purdue this year, is whether they get off to a good start. If they get off to a good start, if they're playing loose and confident, I think they can beat nearly anyone. If OSU plays a good first 5-6 minutes of regulation defensively, and our shots aren't falling, I see this Purdue team tightening up as they have all year, and it can get ugly. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Yesterday, OSU tied it up with 16 minutes left, and then MSU went outscored them 38-18 until MSU started pulling seniors out.

I definitely thought that Ohio State's thin rotation showed.  

My 11 month old son got sick at about the U4 timeout and I didn't feel like I was missing anything.  Later my wife asked how they did and I told her that either they lost or I missed the greatest comeback in history.  

I really thought that the four point play at about 9-10 minutes was the end for the Buckeyes.  I'm not arguing the call, it was definitely a good call, just saying that it killed the Buckeyes.  It was a five point game before that.  A five point game feels competitive, like it could easily go either way.  That was also late in the shot clock so Ohio State was close to getting a stop there.  If they get that stop they get the ball back with a chance to make it a one possession game.  Instead, MSU hits that three, then gets a foul shot too and it becomes a nine point game.  

I know that teams have come back from worse than down 9 with ~9 minutes to go but it isn't easy.  A nine point game feels nothing like a five point game.  Five is a competitive game, nine is a big hole.  Plus, it just got worse.  Ohio State missed then fouled on the rebound and it felt like I blinked and it went from 56-51 to 62-51.  

[mcwterps1]

• I think it will be Maryland over Michigan. 

I could only hope. 
I'll just leave it there. 

[MaximumSam]

Hopefully OSU's depth problem disappears next year.  Assuming both Wessons gone and everyone else comes back (which is always quite the assumption), they will have 13 scholarship guys, but only two freshman.  They go from one senior this year to four next year.  

[bayareabadger]

Probably OSU, certainly if Young isn't back.  They basically go 6 deep, and it showed.  OSU's lack of depth has killed them against MSU the past two seasons, the way MSU generally goes like 9 deep, and wants to run.

In the last four meetings...

In Columbus last year, OSU led 45-36 with about 18 minutes left, then MSU outscored them 50-32 the rest of the way
In East Lansing last year, OSU led by 6 at halftime, and was tied with 7:40 left, then MSU outscored them 20-2 over the final 7:40.  A C.J. Jackson 3 pointer at 7:40, was the field goal OSU made in the last 12 minutes of the game.
In the BTT last year, OSU led 40-38 early in the second half, then MSU went on a 37-14 run to push it out to a 21 point lead at the under 4 timeout, til OSU started raining three in the only crunch time minutes Loyer got in his entire life.
Yesterday, OSU tied it up with 16 minutes left, and then MSU went outscored them 38-18 until MSU started pulling seniors out.

Over those 4 games, it's been 136-135 OSU in the first half, and 170-124 MSU in the second half (and that's even with OSU having late 16-0 and 9-0 runs once MSU got the lead up over 20 with under 4 minutes left, becomes 170-99 without).

Just as built right now, OSU is a great matchup for MSU.  That said, I don't really care how MSU does, so I'd rather get some revenge for the thumping they gave us in West Lafayette

So this brings to the forefront something I often think about, and something that being a Wisconsin fan has probably colored my perception of to a degree: Is depth overrated?

Like I look at what's above, and I dug back. In the three games last year, OSU went quite deep. Across three games, a single Buckeye played more than 30 minutes. Could it not be that OSU put up some good fight, but MSU was simply better, as borne out over the full season?

Then I look at the game last weekend, and it is true OSU rolled with only six guys, two at really high minuets, four between 29-31. But on the other hand, MSU's top four went 39, 37, 35 and 32 in minutes, and two other guys played 38 combined. Maybe the seven minutes from Brown, four from Bingham and five from Kithier (he did have four boards) were getting those other guys a mess of rest, but I'm not sure that link is so strong.

I'll cop that my team's pace probably influences that, same for the fact the best team in UW history had almost no bench to speak of, and the deepest team couldn't absorb and injury and struggled late.

This is what I always come back to: These college teams don't play all that much. You get five guys on the court at the same time, and the good ones can play a lot. Most really good teams roll about 7-8 deep in big games, give or take a few breather minutes.

Anyway, food for thought. 

[bayareabadger]

2019-20 All-Big Ten Men’s Basketball Team
As selected by Big Ten coaches
 
FIRST TEAM
LUKA GARZA, IOWA
Anthony Cowan Jr., Maryland
Jalen Smith, Maryland
CASSIUS WINSTON, MICHIGAN STATE
Lamar Stevens, Penn State
 
SECOND TEAM
Ayo Dosunmu, Illinois
Zavier Simpson Michigan
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State
Daniel Oturu, Minnesota
Kaleb Wesson, Ohio State
 
THIRD TEAM
Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana
Joe Wieskamp, Iowa
Geo Baker, Rutgers
Nate Reuvers, Wisconsin
D'Mitrik Trice, Wisconsin

HONORABLE MENTION
Kofi Cockburn, Illinois
Marcus Carr, Minnesota
Trevion Williams, Purdue
Ron Harper Jr., Rutgers
 
ALL-FRESHMAN TEAM
KOFI COCKBURN, ILLINOIS
TRAYCE JACKSON-DAVIS, INDIANA
CJ Fredrick, Iowa
Franz Wagner, Michigan
Rocket Watts, Michigan State
 
ALL-DEFENSIVE TEAM
Jalen Smith, Maryland
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State
Daniel Oturu, Minnesota
Jamari Wheeler, Penn State
Nojel Eastern, Purdue
 
PLAYER OF THE YEAR: 
Luka Garza, Iowa
 
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR: 
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State
 
FRESHMAN OF THE YEAR: 
Kofi Cockburn, Illinois
 
SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR: 
Aaron Wiggins, Maryland
 
COACH OF THE YEAR: 
Greg Gard, Wisconsin
 
Unanimous selections IN ALL CAPS
 
2019-20 Big Ten Sportsmanship Award Honorees

Andres Feliz, Illinois; Joey Brunk, Indiana; Connor McCaffery, Iowa; Aaron Wiggins, Maryland; Austin Davis, Michigan; Cassius Winston, Michigan State; Michael Hurt, Minnesota; Haanif Cheatham, Nebraska; A.J. Turner, Northwestern; Danny Hummer, Ohio State; John Harrar, Penn State; Tommy Luce, Purdue; Akwasi Yeboah, Rutgers; Michael Ballard, Wisconsin.
 
2019-20 All-Big Ten Men’s Basketball Team
As selected by Media Voting Panel

FIRST TEAM
Ayo Dosunmu, Illinois
LUKA GARZA, IOWA
Jalen Smith, Maryland
Cassius Winston, Michigan State
Lamar Stevens, Penn State
 
SECOND TEAM
Anthony Cowan Jr., Maryland
Zavier Simpson, Michigan
Xavier Tillman, Michigan State
Daniel Oturu, Minnesota
Kaleb Wesson, Ohio State
 
THIRD TEAM
Kofi Cockburn, Illinois
Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana
Joe Wieskamp, Iowa
Marcus Carr, Minnesota
Nate Reuvers, Wisconsin
 
HONORABLE MENTION
Darryl Morsell, Maryland
Isaiah Livers, Michigan
Cam Mack, Nebraska
Myreon Jones, Penn State
Trevion Williams, Purdue
Geo Baker, Rutgers
Ron Harper Jr., Rutgers
D'Mitrik Trice, Wisconsin
 
PLAYER OF THE YEAR: 
Luka Garza, Iowa
 
FRESHMAN OF THE YEAR: 
Kofi Cockburn, Illinois
 
COACH OF THE YEAR: 
Greg Gard, Wisconsin

[MaximumSam]

It's sort of like size. People will say a team has a lot of size, but that doesn't automatically mean they are good at basketball. Having depth doesn't make you good, but it can give you options if some guys are tired or not playing well.