header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: 2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

 (Read 123618 times)

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12168
  • Liked:
Re: 2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #420 on: November 05, 2019, 05:56:41 PM »
Okay, here's how the Sagarin model projects.

Reminder on methodology... Sagarin rating is simple. Currently Sagarin rates home court advantage at 3.13 points. So you add that to the home team's rating, and whichever rating ("away team" or "home team+HCA") is the winner.

Takeaways are that MSU has enough higher rating than any other team in the conference that we can't see any games they'll lose either home or away, so they don't "lose" any wins or losses relative to a full double round robin due to home/road schedule splits. 

Four more teams are behind the Spartans vying for #2, with 20-6 double round robin schedules. Of those, OSU and Maryland appear to have the best home/road splits, projected to finish tied at 16-4. Purdue has a slightly less favorable schedule, with only a 15-5 projection. Michigan gets it worst, as despite their projection being 0.01 higher than Ohio State, they are only projected to finish 14-6. 



MaximumSam

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 13078
  • Liked:
Re: 2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #421 on: November 05, 2019, 09:03:31 PM »
Michigan went right in the toilet the last ten minutes

MichiFan87

  • Player
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 796
  • Liked:
Re: 2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #422 on: November 06, 2019, 01:02:48 AM »
Didn't watch it live but just finished watching the replay....

I was pleasantly surprised how Michigan got out to a big lead early. Last year's team struggled in some games early against bad teams last year, despite playing well in big games (aside from Sparty and Texas Tech, of course).

Teske dominated early, and then Appalachian State adjusted. Castleton and Johns weren't great, but they were decent, and I have no idea why they didn't play more, since the bigger lineups were working better.

Brooks definitely had the best game of his career, which is very encouraging. We'll see how he does against better teams, though.

Unfortunately, Simpson had possibly his worst game since his freshman year. Livers had a pretty bad game aside from hitting some open shots, as well. I don't expect either of them to play as badly again this season.

However, DeJulius and Nunez clearly just aren't ready, which is disappointing. DeJulius wouldn't have played as much if Simpson hadn't committed some dumb fouls, but he's just not effective as a 2-guard, either. Nunez was a liability on defense and didn't do very much on offense, either. I fully expect Wagner's return to relegate him to the bench. Also worth noting is that Bajema didn't play at all, which is disappointing. If he's even worse than Nunez and DeJulius then clearly he shouldn't play, but I had hopes that he would get backup minutes at the 2/3-spots. Hopefully he'll be ready by BigTen play....

Give Appalachian State some credit, too, though. They have a few decent players and a new coach who turned Presbyterian from a D1 bottom feeder to a Big South contender, and Appalachian State appears to at least be already improved from last year.

Overall, there were some dumb fouls and bad turnovers that I don't expect to be as problematic in the future. There were also some bounces that just went the other way. Some of the lineups just didn't make sense, either. The changes in the style of play were rather noticeable. I like how they get into the offense quickly, though some of the shots were certainly rushed or weren't that open. I don't attribute many of the turnovers to changes in the offense, since most were simply unforced mistakes. I think there's definitely room for improvement in transition offense. Meanwhile, the risk of being more aggressive in offensive rebounding is worse transition defense, which there were a few examples of tonight.

Wagner is clearly missed, and tonight shows how beneficial getting a quality graduate transfer would've been for this team. Even considering the timing of the coaching change, I don't know why that didn't happen because there were still some decent players available in the summer.

That said, the team is off a whole week before the Creighton game so they'll have plenty of time to learn from their mistakes. Creighton didn't pull away from Kennesaw (a bad Atlantic Sun team) until the second half, so I'm not sure how good they are, either.


“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
― Bo Schembechler

MaximumSam

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 13078
  • Liked:
Re: 2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #423 on: November 06, 2019, 07:26:30 AM »
Michigan not the only B1G team to struggle in it's opener.  Nebraska got blown out by UC Riverside.  Illinois needed OT to knock off Nicholls State.  MSU lost to UK, though no shame in that.  Wiscy nearly got by St. Mary's.

Purdue and OSU open tonight.  Cincinnati will be an interesting team.  They return their top player but are changing from Mick Cronin's tough grind style to a more up tempo one under John Brannen.

bayareabadger

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 7849
  • Liked:
Re: 2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #424 on: November 06, 2019, 07:34:51 AM »
That St. Mary’s game was annoying and I can’t tell if it bodes particularly poorly for Wisconsin or not.

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: 2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #425 on: November 06, 2019, 09:17:14 AM »
@bwarbiany (or anyone else) do you have a concise list of which teams each B1G team only plays once and where?  

I need to get the tier projection spreadsheet set up soon.  

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12168
  • Liked:
Re: 2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #426 on: November 06, 2019, 09:22:32 AM »
@bwarbiany (or anyone else) do you have a concise list of which teams each B1G team only plays once and where? 

I need to get the tier projection spreadsheet set up soon. 

Right here: https://bigten.org/news/2019/4/17/2019-20-big-ten-mens-basketball-conference-season-opponent-breakdown.aspx 

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: 2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #427 on: November 06, 2019, 09:45:25 AM »
Right here: https://bigten.org/news/2019/4/17/2019-20-big-ten-mens-basketball-conference-season-opponent-breakdown.aspx
Thank you.  

I'll try to get that set up soon.  

For purposes of setting it up, what does everyone think of @ELA 's proposed tiers?

For review, @ELA proposed:
  • MSU, UMD
  • tOSU, PU
  • M, IL, UW
  • PSU, IA, IU
  • MN
  • RU, UNL, NU


Max suggested the following:
  • Move UMD down to tier-2
  • Move RU up to tier-5


I'm not sure if @msufan23 was agreeing or not, but he pointed out that @ELA 's tiers with @MaximumSam 's adjustments would mirror another poll.  

Other thoughts?

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: 2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #428 on: November 06, 2019, 10:47:50 AM »
Right here: https://bigten.org/news/2019/4/17/2019-20-big-ten-mens-basketball-conference-season-opponent-breakdown.aspx
LoL, as it turns out apparently I already did this because I already have those entered into a spreadsheet!  

Now I just need consensus on the tiers and I'll have it up and ready.  

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: 2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #429 on: November 06, 2019, 11:42:51 AM »
I set it up using @ELA 's proposed tiers with @MaximumSam 's proposed adjustments.  Thus, the tiers for now are:

  • MSU
  • UMD, tOSU, PU
  • M, UW, IL
  • IA, PSU, IU
  • MN, RU
  • UNL, NU
Here is what I get:

Here it is resorted to show the projected scheduling advantage/disadvantage:

Explanation for the uninitiated:
Per this projection:
  • Michigan has the biggest schedule advantage (0.035 from a projected 0.615 on a double-round-robin to 0.650 with their actual schedule).  
  • Indiana has the biggest schedule disadvantage (-0.073 from a projected 0.423 on a double-round-robin to 0.350 with their actual schedule).  
The columns are:
  • Team:  Duh.  
  • noAway:  A team that this team does not visit
  • noAway:  A team that this team does not visit  
  • noAway:  A team that this team does not visit
  • noHome:  A team that this team does not host  
  • noHome:  A team that this team does not host   
  • noHome:  A team that this team does not host
  • RR-W:  Projected wins for this team on a hypothetical 26-game double-round-robin schedule
  • RR-L:  Projected losses for this team on a hypothetical 26-game double-round-robin schedule
  • miss-W:  Projected hypothetical wins in the six games that this team does not play (see noAway and noHome columns)
  • miss-L:  Projected hypothetical losses in the six games that this team does not play (see noAway and noHome columns)
  • Proj-W:  Projected wins on this team's actual schedule
  • Proj-L:  Projected losses on this team's actual schedule
  • RR%:  Projected winning percentage on the hypothetical 26-game double-round-robin schedule
  • Proj%:  Projected winning percentage on this team's actual schedule
  • Diff:  Difference between the previous two

Explaination of the projection method, again for the uninitiated:
  • Each team is expected to win all home games except those against teams at least two tiers ahead of them
  • Each team is expected to lose all road games except those against teams at least two tiers behind them
Thus, for example:
UMD, tOSU, and PU are expected to win all of their home games and all road game except those against the team in tier-1 (MSU), the other two teams in tier-2 (each other) and the three teams in tier-3 (M, UW, IL).  Thus, all three would project to go 20-6 on a hypothetical 26-game double-round-robin schedule.  Purdue misses five projected wins and one projected loss while tOSU and UMD each miss four projected wins and two projected losses so their projections are 15-5 for Purdue and 16-4 for tOSU and UMD.  

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: 2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #430 on: November 06, 2019, 11:48:37 AM »
I looked through comparing the tier-based projections to @bwarbiany 's sagrin-based projections.  A lot of them are dead on and most are close.  The major difference is that using the tiers we have Illinois going 11-9 while he has them going 8-12.  That is the biggest difference (three games) and it is BY FAR the most impactful difference because the 11-9 projection probably puts them in the tournament while 8-12 puts them on the bubble at best.  

MaximumSam

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 13078
  • Liked:
Re: 2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #431 on: November 06, 2019, 12:09:11 PM »
Very cool.  If I had to guess I have a hard time seeing the teams at the top doing that well. May be more of a mushy middle this year.

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12168
  • Liked:
Re: 2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #432 on: November 06, 2019, 01:01:16 PM »
FYI I posted them here and hopefully it might drag a few more folks over to this site. 

@medinabuckeye1 I hope you don't mind me using your tables, and @Drew4UTk I hope you don't mind a little hot-linking of the pictures, as I don't have any good other place to host those PNG files... Let me know if either of you object.

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Re: 2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #433 on: November 06, 2019, 02:04:01 PM »
FYI I posted them here and hopefully it might drag a few more folks over to this site.

@medinabuckeye1 I hope you don't mind me using your tables, and @Drew4UTk I hope you don't mind a little hot-linking of the pictures, as I don't have any good other place to host those PNG files... Let me know if either of you object.
I'm good with it and hope we get a little more traffic.  

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.