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Topic: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

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847badgerfan

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #840 on: January 16, 2019, 12:08:26 PM »
Can't find the dislike button.  Need to talk to upper management
They don't listen, nor care.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

FearlessF

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #841 on: January 16, 2019, 12:42:28 PM »
perhaps try lower management
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

MaximumSam

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #842 on: January 16, 2019, 12:50:46 PM »
They don't listen, nor care.
We need a "chili has beans" button

FearlessF

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #843 on: January 16, 2019, 12:56:40 PM »
not on the Big 12 board!
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #844 on: January 16, 2019, 01:32:28 PM »
Izzo said there is a chance Langford's injury is season ending.  :91:

bwarbiany

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #845 on: January 16, 2019, 01:35:30 PM »
I read on the Purdue forums that part of his increased role in the rotation is due to his weight loss.  He got on to campus in the 280 range but has dropped about 30 to 40 pounds since then.    He has a ton of potential and is making the most of his opportunities.  
Actually I think he came in around 330, and lost the weight to get to 280. He looks every bit of 280 right now. 

bayareabadger

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #846 on: January 16, 2019, 02:37:52 PM »
I’m on he verge of staring a hole in Wisconsin’s KenPom page.

By my math, considering SOS and such, 17 wins has UW needing some BTT wins, 18 should have UW on the bubble, but I think in, 19 would probably have them in.


They have 11 wins, 14 games left.

I’m breaking down the games like this.
Five should win: NW at home, Iowa at home, PSU at home, Illinois home and away.
Three where they’re slight favorites, but it’s tricky: at NW, at Minn, hosting MD.

Sweep those, UW should be golden, lose one, could be tricky.

Then there’s, not favored, but could be close: at IU, at OSU.  

At Nebraska was in that group, but the Huskers are rolling. Mich and MSU in Madison are listed as possibly close, but I’ll wait and see. In Ann Arbor feels unwinnable.

So five should-wins, five ones where they should be right there, 2-3 longshot but there’s a chance and one deeply unlikely. Based on how UW has been, tough but schizophrenic, I think the path is doable unless they trip up or just drop everything winnable.

(If UW wants to upset Michigan, that’d be peachy)

JerseyTerrapin

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #847 on: January 16, 2019, 03:28:53 PM »
Izzo said there is a chance Langford's injury is season ending.  :91:
It took me a long to realize that both Indiana and Michigan State have a "Langford."  Now I'm less-confused.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #848 on: January 16, 2019, 03:40:50 PM »
@bayareabadger , I like that way of looking at it but I'm not a KenPom subscriber so I have to make some guesses.  

Looking at my team (Ohio State), they are 12-4/2-3 with a somewhat weaker SoS than Wisconsin.  Thus, I'm thinking they need to finish at least 20-11/10-10 or else they'll need an improbable run in Chicago.  Fifteen games remaining:
  • 4 Should definitely win:  vs RU, vs PSU, vs IL, vs NU
  • 3 Should probably win:  vs UW, at NU, v IA
  • 2 Probable losses:  v UMD, v PU, 
  • 4 Strongly probable losses:  at UNL, at IU, at UMD, at PU
  • 2 Would take a miracle:  at M, at MSU

So I think the Buckeyes need eight wins and I'm only seeing seven.  They are going to have to be perfect in the games that they should win and pick up an upset somewhere along the way.  

bwarbiany

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #849 on: January 16, 2019, 04:14:33 PM »
According to KenPom, with schedule rankings and then OOC schedule rankings in brackets:

  • 4 B1G teams are in the top 10 strength of schedule: PSU 3 [82], Illinois 4 [62], Purdue 5 [60], and Wisconsin 8 [67]
  • 2 additional B1G teams are between 11-20 (so 6 of top 20 overall): MSU 14 [91], Nebraska 20 [176]
  • 2 additional B1G teams are between 21-30 (so 8 of top 30 overall): Rutgers 23 [280], Indiana 24 [214]
  • Remaining teams overall [OOC] schedule rankings of Maryland 45 [285], Northwestern 48 [308], Ohio State 52 [232], Iowa 53 [331], Minnesota 74 [252], and Michigan 103 [298]

I think all of these teams will see their SoS buoyed as we continue conference play. 

Other conferences and their share of the top 30 SoS:

  • Big 12: 3 in top 10 and Texas at 15th, but only 4 schools in top 30 (WVU just outside at 32)
  • ACC: 0 in top 10, 3 in teens, and 2 more total to round out 5 in the top 30
  • SEC: 0 in top 10, only 2 in top 30
  • PAC: 0 in top 30 (?!?)
  • Big East: 2 in top 10, 3 in top 30 (Villanova just outside at 31)

I think it shows not only how strong the B1G is itself, but also that we haven't shied away from scheduling somewhat tough OOC. 

FearlessF

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #850 on: January 16, 2019, 04:31:22 PM »
According to KenPom, with schedule rankings and then OOC schedule rankings in brackets:

  •  Nebraska 20 [176]
Texas Tech has a home game vs the Cyclones tonight, could be moving up in the top 10
SETON HALL & CREIGHTON need to go on a run in the Big East
too bad Clemson is a football school
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

bayareabadger

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #851 on: January 16, 2019, 04:34:10 PM »
@bayareabadger , I like that way of looking at it but I'm not a KenPom subscriber so I have to make some guesses.  

Looking at my team (Ohio State), they are 12-4/2-3 with a somewhat weaker SoS than Wisconsin.  Thus, I'm thinking they need to finish at least 20-11/10-10 or else they'll need an improbable run in Chicago.  Fifteen games remaining:
  • 4 Should definitely win:  vs RU, vs PSU, vs IL, vs NU
  • 3 Should probably win:  vs UW, at NU, v IA
  • 2 Probable losses:  v UMD, v PU,
  • 4 Strongly probable losses:  at UNL, at IU, at UMD, at PU
  • 2 Would take a miracle:  at M, at MSU

So I think the Buckeyes need eight wins and I'm only seeing seven.  They are going to have to be perfect in the games that they should win and pick up an upset somewhere along the way.  
KenPom has them favored by 7 in each of the first four.
It has them by 4 vs Iowa, 2 vs UW, 1 at NU.
Favored by 2 at home vs MD, by 1 at home vs Purdue. 
The last six, the best chance to win is 40 percent at IU and 37 at MD.
So basically, the next week could get them ahead of the eight ball and OSU fans are big Creighton and Cincy fans.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #852 on: January 16, 2019, 04:52:30 PM »
KenPom has them favored by 7 in each of the first four.
It has them by 4 vs Iowa, 2 vs UW, 1 at NU.
Favored by 2 at home vs MD, by 1 at home vs Purdue.
The last six, the best chance to win is 40 percent at IU and 37 at MD.
So basically, the next week could get them ahead of the eight ball and OSU fans are big Creighton and Cincy fans.
First off, thanks.  
Second, in addition to being Creighton/Cincy fans, I would think that the Syracuse loss looks better after Syracuse's win over Dook.  
As I said, I think Ohio State needs eight more wins so using what you provided to rank the games in order of likelihood of victory:
  • vs RU -7
  • vs PSU -7
  • vs IL -7
  • vs NU -7
  • vs IA -4
  • vs UW -2
  • vs UMD -2
  • at NU -1
  • vs PU -1
  • at IU 40%
  • at UMD 37%
  • at UNL <37%
  • at PU <37%
  • at M very unlikely
  • at MSU very unlikely

These next two games, IMHO, are hugely important.  They are #7 (Friday night) and #9 (a week from tonight) on my list and, as I stated, I think Ohio State needs eight wins.  Win those two and the Buckeyes look pretty good with (essentially) a "should win" to give and only needing to finish 6-7.  Lose those two and the Buckeyes are in trouble needing to win all of the remaining "should wins" and pick up a <40% likelihood upset to finish 8-5.  The former is fairly likely, the latter very unlikely.  

In theory that looks fine for the Buckeyes because they are theoretically favored in nine remaining games and if they won those and lost the rest they'd finish 21-10/11-9 and pretty safely in the tournament.  In practice I think it looks a lot worse than that both because I slightly disagree with KenPom's prognostications and because, looking at those projected spreads what I see is:
  • Five "should win games" #1-5
  • Four "toss-ups" #6-9
  • Six "should lose" games #10-15
If you assume that the Buckeyes win the "should win" games and lose the "should lose" games, they need to go 3-1 in the toss-ups.  That is a tall order even though they are theoretically favored in all four.  

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #853 on: January 16, 2019, 05:03:49 PM »
Do I have to be a Marquette fan?


U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

 

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