I’m on he verge of staring a hole in Wisconsin’s KenPom page.
By my math, considering SOS and such, 17 wins has UW needing some BTT wins, 18 should have UW on the bubble, but I think in, 19 would probably have them in.
They have 11 wins, 14 games left.
I’m breaking down the games like this.
Five should win: NW at home, Iowa at home, PSU at home, Illinois home and away.
Three where they’re slight favorites, but it’s tricky: at NW, at Minn, hosting MD.
Sweep those, UW should be golden, lose one, could be tricky.
Then there’s, not favored, but could be close: at IU, at OSU.
At Nebraska was in that group, but the Huskers are rolling. Mich and MSU in Madison are listed as possibly close, but I’ll wait and see. In Ann Arbor feels unwinnable.
So five should-wins, five ones where they should be right there, 2-3 longshot but there’s a chance and one deeply unlikely. Based on how UW has been, tough but schizophrenic, I think the path is doable unless they trip up or just drop everything winnable.
(If UW wants to upset Michigan, that’d be peachy)