2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[847badgerfan]

OK, now I'm more worried about UW.

I saw the first half and fell asleep (got the flu bug in Cabo...) only to wake up to them losing by 2. The slow starts are absolutely killing them. That has to stop, now.

[FearlessF]

so, I missed a good Badger comeback

dern

[bayareabadger]

I saw the first half and fell asleep (got the flu bug in Cabo...) only to wake up to them losing by 2. The slow starts are absolutely killing them. That has to stop, now.

I went to bed mad at halftime. Mostly ok with that choice. 
In theory, a team that can play like that, come back like that should eventually see the worm turn against some good teams, but man these missed chances. 

[SFBadger96]

All darned season. Have to cure this. Seems like it's got to be in their heads...

[847badgerfan]

I think they need to get Iverson out of the starting lineup. I love the kid, but man, he just clogs up the offense because he can't shoot. Probably need to go with Kobe King in his place.

[ELA]

Not convinced.
Best defense I've seen them play, but still look lost and the youth pushes too much.

FWIW, Lunardi's latest has Maryland as the 4 seed in a region with Virginia, Kansas and Nevada as the 1-2-3.  Virginia is always going to Virginia in March, and I don't trust Kansas at all without Azubuike.  Obviously it won't be the actual bracket, but if it was, my confidence in the Terps is so high right now, I'd pick them to the Final 4 with that region.

[bayareabadger]

I think they need to get Iverson out of the starting lineup. I love the kid, but man, he just clogs up the offense because he can't shoot. Probably need to go with Kobe King in his place.

I think King is close to getting it, but at times he just gets stuck between being somewhat aggressive but then pulling up. 
Iverson’s defense is at times a plus, his offense is not. King just needs a bit more reliability. 

[847badgerfan]

Well, he is technically a freshman so that is understandable. His defense seems fairly decent. 

Iversen could be really valuable off the bench to shut down a hot hand too.

[Entropy]

According to the NET rankings... UNL has played 6 Quad 1 opponents this season.  All of them have been on the road.  Last year UNL was 0-9 vs Quad 1 programs.   Nice to be reminded of the YoY improvement.

Rankings can change but as of today Nebraska has 8 games left against quad 1 (MSU, Wisconsin, Maryland, at Purdue, Purdue, at Michigan, at MSU, and Iowa).  6 left against quad 2.  

Quads so far:

[ELA]

Massey composite rankings (51 rankings), with last week in parenthesis (remember it does not factor in last night's results)...

• Duke (1)
• Virginia (2)
• Tennessee (5)
• MICHIGAN STATE (4)
• Gonzaga (3)
• MICHIGAN (6)
• Kansas (8)
• Texas Tech (10)
• Virginia Tech (9)
• North Carolina (7)
• Nevada (12)
• Auburn (11)
• Oklahoma (13)
• Buffalo (24)
• Florida State (20)
• Kentucky (18)
• MARYLAND (-)
• NEBRASKA (21)
• PURDUE (23)
• Houston (16)
• Villanova (-)
• Louisville (-)
• Marquette (-)
• NC State (17)
• TCU (22)

• 26. Wisconsin (25)
• 27. Indiana (27)
• 30. Iowa (40)
• 33. Ohio State (19)
• 42. Minnesota (41)
• 60. Northwestern (56)
• 79. Penn State (70)
• 104. Rutgers (116)
• 129. Illinois (131)

[medinabuckeye1]

Based on @ELA 's composite computer rankings, the tiers should probably be:

• 4 Michigan State, 6 Michigan
• 17 Maryland, 18 Nebraska, 19 Purdue
• 26 Wisconsin, 27 Indiana, 30 Iowa, 33 Ohio State
• 60 Northwestern, 79 Penn State
• 104 Rutgers, 129 Illinois

I left out #42 Minnesota because I'm really not sure.  #26 Wisconsin - #33 Ohio State are all clustered pretty tightly so Minnesota doesn't "feel" like they fit there but they also "feel" a lot better than #60 NU and #79 PSU.  FWIW, this would mostly match our current tiers with just these changes:

• Maryland up to tier-2 from tier-3
• Wisconsin down to tier-3 from tier-2
• Indiana down to tier-3 from tier-2

Maryland is +1 in upsets while Wisconsin and Indiana are both -1 so those moves seem reasonable.  

I'm not making any changes yet, we'll see what this week's results look like.  Games for those three teams:

• Maryland is at Ohio State on Friday.  If they win, the Terps move up.  
• Wisconsin hosts Michigan on Saturday.  If they lose it may be time to move them down?
• Indiana is at Purdue on Saturday.  They should lose regardless of whether they are tier-2 or tier-3 but if they get run off the court it might be time to consider moving them down.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

With your proposed tiers, what about Minnesota in a standalone tier 4?

Indiana already beat PSU on the road and faces NU on the road next Tuesday, so having an empty tier between them would make wins in both games non-upsets. 

I don't know the other results between your tier-3 and tier-4 teams when tier 3 is on the road, but it seems like there's a sizable gap there between teams ranked in the 20's / early 30's and teams ranked in the 60's/70's. And that gap seems perfectly Minnesota-sized...

[medinabuckeye1]

With your proposed tiers, what about Minnesota in a standalone tier 4?

Indiana already beat PSU on the road and faces NU on the road next Tuesday, so having an empty tier between them would make wins in both games non-upsets.

I don't know the other results between your tier-3 and tier-4 teams when tier 3 is on the road, but it seems like there's a sizable gap there between teams ranked in the 20's / early 30's and teams ranked in the 60's/70's. And that gap seems perfectly Minnesota-sized...

The two games tomorrow night will be a good test for this idea:

• Minnesota is at Illinois
• Iowa is at Penn State

As we currently have it configured, tier-4 Minnesota should lose at tier-5 Illinois and tier-3 Iowa should lose at tier-4 Penn State.  I think there is a pretty good chance that both road teams will win and that would be a good case for creating a new tier-4 containing Minnesota (and Ohio State if they lose at home to Maryland on Friday).  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Also FYI, the Indiana problem might not be solvable until after the Michigan game.

Indiana shouldn't win @ Purdue. Obviously if they do, it ruins everything, and as a Purdue fan I don't want to think about that right now. So let's just assume they lose, and leave the point differential out of it because it's a rivalry game.

If you move Indiana down to tier 3, then Northwestern should beat them at home and they should lose to Michigan at home. If you leave them at tier 2, then they should beat Northwestern on the road and beat Michigan at home.

• If Indiana loses to Purdue, loses to Northwestern, and loses to Michigan, they move down to tier 3 and Northwestern makes sense to stay in tier 4.
• If Indiana loses to Purdue, beats Northwestern, and loses to Michigan, it might be time to move Indiana to tier 3 but do what I suggest in the previous post that you have a blank tier between 3 and 5, and Northwestern/PSU goes to tier 5?

I do think Indiana based on performance has not justified moving down yet, but is either going to lose to Northwestern or Michigan, and possibly both. That may be a strong indicator of where these tiers need to be based almost purely on Indiana's performance.