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Topic: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

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FearlessF

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #854 on: January 16, 2019, 05:36:59 PM »
no, but they did hold onto a win last night
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

bayareabadger

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #855 on: January 16, 2019, 05:38:18 PM »
First off, thanks.  
Second, in addition to being Creighton/Cincy fans, I would think that the Syracuse loss looks better after Syracuse's win over Dook.  
As I said, I think Ohio State needs eight more wins so using what you provided to rank the games in order of likelihood of victory:
  • vs RU -7
  • vs PSU -7
  • vs IL -7
  • vs NU -7
  • vs IA -4
  • vs UW -2
  • vs UMD -2
  • at NU -1
  • vs PU -1
  • at IU 40%
  • at UMD 37%
  • at UNL <37%
  • at PU <37%
  • at M very unlikely
  • at MSU very unlikely

These next two games, IMHO, are hugely important.  They are #7 (Friday night) and #9 (a week from tonight) on my list and, as I stated, I think Ohio State needs eight wins.  Win those two and the Buckeyes look pretty good with (essentially) a "should win" to give and only needing to finish 6-7.  Lose those two and the Buckeyes are in trouble needing to win all of the remaining "should wins" and pick up a <40% likelihood upset to finish 8-5.  The former is fairly likely, the latter very unlikely.  

In theory that looks fine for the Buckeyes because they are theoretically favored in nine remaining games and if they won those and lost the rest they'd finish 21-10/11-9 and pretty safely in the tournament.  In practice I think it looks a lot worse than that both because I slightly disagree with KenPom's prognostications and because, looking at those projected spreads what I see is:
  • Five "should win games" #1-5
  • Four "toss-ups" #6-9
  • Six "should lose" games #10-15
If you assume that the Buckeyes win the "should win" games and lose the "should lose" games, they need to go 3-1 in the toss-ups.  That is a tall order even though they are theoretically favored in all four.  
Percentages on games 6-9
55
58
52
53
So all are basically tossups. Maths would say you likely get 2-2, but the flows of a season and oddness of that could swing things

bayareabadger

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #856 on: January 16, 2019, 05:39:01 PM »
Do I have to be a Marquette fan?



Probably. You just can't have them crater. 

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #857 on: January 16, 2019, 05:43:14 PM »
Sooners too, I reckon. And Virginia. And Western 'Tuck. Did I just type that?


The Badgers are in a major funk. It's not stopping on Saturday either. What's the over-under on 1st half points? 13?
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

bayareabadger

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #858 on: January 16, 2019, 05:56:15 PM »
Sooners too, I reckon. And Virginia. And Western 'Tuck. Did I just type that?


The Badgers are in a major funk. It's not stopping on Saturday either. What's the over-under on 1st half points? 13?
The quality of the funk is interesting. UW has shown it can match good teams, granted in oft schizophrenic ways. Minny and WKU were bad, Minny on the offensive side, WKU just with catching a stupid hot shooting half. The question is, can it continue that?
The numbers are more bullish on UW this weekend than you'd think. That might just be a kink of numbers or carryover from the first half of the year. I don't think UW will win, and hope they don't just get smashed, but I'm probably holding out more hope than I should. 

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #859 on: January 16, 2019, 06:01:46 PM »
What a difference a month makes. From a 3 seed, to a sit home. I'm serious. What the hell happened here??
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

bayareabadger

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #860 on: January 16, 2019, 06:02:11 PM »
So an observation about the schedule and wondering how y'all feel about it. 

BTN has in essence "unbunched" the conference's schedule. Used to be, you had a mess of Saturday games, a lot of Tuesday or Wednesday and the odd Sunday or other random day ESPN needed something. But I was looking forward, we have five three-game days and five  four-game days and one five-game day the rest of the way (through early March). But you also get at least one game almost every night. 

Do we like this?

ELA

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #861 on: January 16, 2019, 06:09:49 PM »
So an observation about the schedule and wondering how y'all feel about it.

BTN has in essence "unbunched" the conference's schedule. Used to be, you had a mess of Saturday games, a lot of Tuesday or Wednesday and the odd Sunday or other random day ESPN needed something. But I was looking forward, we have five three-game days and five  four-game days and one five-game day the rest of the way (through early March). But you also get at least one game almost every night.

Do we like this?
I don't.  It used to be clear weeknights were T-R, weekends were Saturday and occasionally Sunday.  So you'd play once each, with your allotted bye weeks.  Now I'm not sure how they do it.  MSU plays Thursday, but not at all all weekend, then 3 times next week.  I'm guessing Monday's game against Maryland counts as a weekend game?  Who knows.
Even aside from that, I don't think "more" is better, because it's never appointment viewing.  Aside from the whole not scheduling a Friday night around college basketball; even on nights in, I used to be pretty free to watch T-R, and then Saturday and Sunday afternoon, knowing that Mondays, Sunday nights, Fridays if we were in, we'd watch a movie and something we had DVRd, but when Big Ten played, it was appointment viewing.  Now there's constantly a game, so while you always COULD watch, you never feel like you need to, and it makes me end up watching less, because I can always just catch the next one.  Same with football, I watch less off Saturday games than I used to, simply because it used to feel like Monday Night Football, and even Thursday night college football, were your only two chances off Saturday-Sunday to see football, so I'd watch, even for a lousy matchup.  Now, I just tell myself, meh, I'll watch tomorrows game, but then I tell myself the same tomorrow.  When it was appointment viewing, I'd find myself scheduling around it, now I find excuses to avoid it.  Sunday night, I've just watched enough sports, I can't get into it.  I absolutely hate the Sunday evening/night Big Ten games, and it's like pulling teeth to watch when MSU participates.  If MSU isn't playing there is a less than 5% chance I watch, if MSU is, it's 50/50.
And that's aside from a firm commitment not to watch any of these Friday night Big Ten games, just because I want them to go away, and while Delany is relying on us to still watch, even if we dislike it, I can at least do something, albeit insignificant, to let them know I won't.

bayareabadger

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #862 on: January 16, 2019, 06:23:09 PM »
What a difference a month makes. From a 3 seed, to a sit home. I'm serious. What the hell happened here??
Fans overreacted to close losses, a dreadful offensive day against Minnesota and the wrong end of a bonkers half from WKY?
If they miss the dance, it will because they actively start playing much worse i.e. the first halves against Minnesota and MD becomes the norms. But as I said above, UW needs to win the five it should and take three of five possible close ones to get in easy, or win two and make it kind of hard (assuming UW can't pull an upset at home). 
This team has fight, we know this because it erased a 21-point deficit on the damn road. Theyve burned some margin for error, but a team with that fight has a reasonable road ahead. (doing a little more than the numbers say on Saturday would help immensely though)

FearlessF

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #863 on: January 16, 2019, 09:19:18 PM »
What a difference a month makes. From a 3 seed, to a sit home. I'm serious. What the hell happened here??
a month?
From mid-December to Mid-January things shake out
anyone seeding teams in December is just plain guessing
I'm also not sure what trying to tier teams in conference in January accomplishes.  Any team can get hot and win 3 or 4 in a row or go cold and lose 4 straight.  Changing tiers.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

bayareabadger

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #864 on: January 16, 2019, 10:29:55 PM »
So who expected to see Illinois up 23 at half?

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #865 on: January 17, 2019, 08:21:48 AM »
UW lost at home, to that team UI just throttled.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

FearlessF

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #866 on: January 17, 2019, 09:28:20 AM »
Cyclones took down #8 Texas Tech in Lubbock
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #867 on: January 17, 2019, 09:52:57 AM »
Fans overreacted to close losses, a dreadful offensive day against Minnesota and the wrong end of a bonkers half from WKY?
If they miss the dance, it will because they actively start playing much worse i.e. the first halves against Minnesota and MD becomes the norms. But as I said above, UW needs to win the five it should and take three of five possible close ones to get in easy, or win two and make it kind of hard (assuming UW can't pull an upset at home).
This team has fight, we know this because it erased a 21-point deficit on the damn road. Theyve burned some margin for error, but a team with that fight has a reasonable road ahead. (doing a little more than the numbers say on Saturday would help immensely though)
Free throws. The Badgers used to pride themselves on making more than their opponents even shot. That's long gone with this group. Hell, on Monday Maryland took 29* and made 24. UW took 6 and made 3. Ballgame.
* Refs were out to get Maryland, clearly. :67:
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

 

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