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Topic: #14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game

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Temp430

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#14 Michigan (2-0, 4-1) at Northwestern (1-1, 1-3) Post Game
« on: September 25, 2018, 07:32:13 AM »
Michigan is favored by 14 with Northwestern coming off a bye week and having lost starting RB Larkin to a medical retirement.   I think Northwestern's defense will test Michigan more than Nebraska but can the Wildcats score any points?  
« Last Edit: October 01, 2018, 10:41:06 AM by ELA »
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ELA

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2)
« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2018, 08:36:38 AM »
Yeah, not sure where the offense is coming from for Northwestern.  From MSU's perspective the following week, this may be a bad thing.  They may just throw the ball 70 times.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2018, 10:41:35 AM »
Impressively IMO, the Big Ten has 8 teams in the S&P+ Top 25 for defense. The Wildcats are one of them. Between that and Michigan's habit of having its offense travel unwell, this will be a good test.

Mdot21

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2018, 02:20:20 PM »
Impressively IMO, the Big Ten has 8 teams in the S&P+ Top 25 for defense. The Wildcats are one of them. Between that and Michigan's habit of having its offense travel unwell, this will be a good test.
how much of that is the B1G not playing anybody yet and the offenses in the B1G being bad.
Outside of Ohio State and then Penn State- who has played absolutely nobody- no one in the B1G seems to have explosion on offense.
Michigan has the potential for that. They have a pair of receivers who could be explosive if unleashed in Nico Collins and DPJ. Tarik Black would be 3 future Sunday receivers if/when he comes back. Could make a great argument Ambry Thomas would be 4 Sunday receivers if they played him exclusively at WR. He reminds me quite a bit of Ted Ginn Jr. His speed/acceleration combo is just at another level. All of those guys look like future NFL receivers. Big-time talents. All of them. They also have a RB who is probably the biggest RB mismatch in space in the passing game in the league in Chris Evans. They also have a freakish 6'7+ TE with great speed for the position in Gentry. They also have a QB who has flawless mechanics, a lightning quick release, can run and throw on the run, and can make pretty much any throw on the football field in Shea Patterson. Unfortunately they don't have the offensive coaching staff to utilize these weapons. Really sad. And it really pisses me off they are basically wasting elite talent on offense. Better offensive staffs would actually use those weapons. Instead this guy and his band of rejects basically throw the ball 20 times a game or less on average through 4 games, don't get the outside WR's involved as much as they should, play Thomas on defense when it looks clear as day that he's a guy that needs the ball in his hands bc he's so god damn explosive, and they try to turn Chris Evans into a between the tackles runner instead of the hybrid space player that he clearly is. Give an elite offensive mind that collection of skill talent he'd build a ridiculous offense. Harbaugh doesn't have a clue what to do with these guys.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2018, 02:26:05 PM by Mdot21 »

Mdot21

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2018, 02:44:15 PM »
Michigan is favored by 14 with Northwestern coming off a bye week and having lost starting RB Larkin to a medical retirement.   I think Northwestern's defense will test Michigan more than Nebraska but can the Wildcats score any points?  
doesn't matter. Harbaugh will make sure this one is closer than it needs to be. I doubt highly that the OL will be able to replicate the success they had at home against a reeling Nebraska squad. Harbaugh will force the run and put Michigan in 3rd and longs all game long. He won't open things up and let Patterson throw the ball 40 times a game and put his athletes in space and use tempo to get the Northwestern D on their heels. If he went 4 wide and played Ambry Thomas on offense the entire game and put Chris Evans in space and threw him the ball- forget about it. They'd shred Northwestern in half.
But no. Michigan will eek out an ugly win. No way they are covering that spread. No way.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2018, 02:45:46 PM by Mdot21 »

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2018, 02:57:20 PM »
I don't think it's wrong to argue that every conference is loading up on crap teams, so the having 8 teams in the Top 25 has some value. But the sample size is low and I don't have any problem agree with you that it is due to, at least in part, weak opposition. 

We play to find out to which extent. It's a good test either way.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2018, 02:58:55 PM »
I was really disappointed how Ambry dropped that deep touchdown McCaffery threw. It was in stride and on his hands. Hopefully that's the only example of bad hands we see from him.

Mdot21

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2018, 03:02:20 PM »
I was really disappointed how Ambry dropped that deep touchdown McCaffery threw. It was in stride and on his hands. Hopefully that's the only example of bad hands we see from him.
It was a really bad underthrow by McCaffrey and to the wrong shoulder. Thomas had to stop running and adjust to the ball, which let the safety and CB catch up and put a lick on him. Thomas had both of them smoked. Like flat out smoked. He blazed right by the coverage. McCaffrey doesn't have the strongest arm and I think that might've been an example of one of his weaknesses right there. That ball is thrown out in front of Thomas that's a TD. Thomas can F-L-Y.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2018, 03:03:44 PM »
how much of that is the B1G not playing anybody yet and the offenses in the B1G being bad. 
I could be wrong, but I think that at least in theory that should not be an issue.  Doesn't SP+ use a metric where it compares each offense to how other offenses did against that defense?  I think they do and if so, that should mostly take care of both of the questions that you raised.  

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2018, 03:15:25 PM »
They also have a RB who is probably the biggest RB mismatch in space in the passing game in the league in Chris Evans. They also have a freakish 6'7+ TE with great speed for the position in Gentry. 
Whoa there, slugger. Evans is great. Hopefully he heals up (hamstrings are THE WORST, very slow healing, recurrence rates are high). But JK Dobbins would like to have a word with you.
They also have a freakish 6'7+ TE with great speed for the position in Gentry. They also have a QB who has flawless mechanics, a lightning quick release, can run and throw on the run, and can make pretty much any throw on the football field in Shea Patterson. Unfortunately they don't have the offensive coaching staff to utilize these weapons. Really sad. And it really pisses me off they are basically wasting elite talent on offense. Better offensive staffs would actually use those weapons. Instead this guy and his band of rejects basically throw the ball 20 times a game or less on average through 4 games, don't get the outside WR's involved as much as they should, play Thomas on defense when it looks clear as day that he's a guy that needs the ball in his hands bc he's so god damn explosive, and they try to turn Chris Evans into a between the tackles runner instead of the hybrid space player that he clearly is. Give an elite offensive mind that collection of skill talent he'd build a ridiculous offense. Harbaugh doesn't have a clue what to do with these guys.
Would you have passed more versus Nebraska? Why? 
I think the passing game is too soon to judge. I'm not talking about the actual players and what they can execute. I agree it looks good. Here I mean the coaches and what they will call when it matters. ND was a cluster for other reasons. It was a terrrible week one game for this offense; would/could (probably?) be entirely different now. If it's true that the OL is turning a corner with Warriner now, then I think we have to wait until Wisconsin/MSU/PSU to see what the coaches actually want to do with the passing game.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2018, 03:16:09 PM »
I could be wrong, but I think that at least in theory that should not be an issue.  Doesn't SP+ use a metric where it compares each offense to how other offenses did against that defense?  I think they do and if so, that should mostly take care of both of the questions that you raised.  
Another good point. Yes.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2018, 03:17:41 PM »
It was a really bad underthrow by McCaffrey and to the wrong shoulder. Thomas had to stop running and adjust to the ball, which let the safety and CB catch up and put a lick on him. Thomas had both of them smoked. Like flat out smoked. He blazed right by the coverage. McCaffrey doesn't have the strongest arm and I think that might've been an example of one of his weaknesses right there. That ball is thrown out in front of Thomas that's a TD. Thomas can F-L-Y.
I guess I'll have to rewatch. I remember the throw differently. Even if underthrown, though, once you're there, many WRs make finishing that pay look routine.

Mdot21

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2018, 03:22:29 PM »
I guess I'll have to rewatch. I remember the throw differently. Even if underthrown, though, once you're there, many WRs make finishing that pay look routine.
go re-watch it. It was a bad throw. Thomas had to stop running completely, adjust to a ball that hit his shoulder pad, and then he got popped almost immediately. An accurate throw out in front of him, in-stride- that's a TD. He smoked that CB and that safety.

Mdot21

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Re: #14 Michigan (1-0, 3-1) at Northwestern (1-0, 1-2) Game Week
« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2018, 07:54:26 PM »
Whoa there, slugger. Evans is great. Hopefully he heals up (hamstrings are THE WORST, very slow healing, recurrence rates are high). But JK Dobbins would like to have a word with you.Would you have passed more versus Nebraska? Why?
I think the passing game is too soon to judge. I'm not talking about the actual players and what they can execute. I agree it looks good. Here I mean the coaches and what they will call when it matters. ND was a cluster for other reasons. It was a terrrible week one game for this offense; would/could (probably?) be entirely different now. If it's true that the OL is turning a corner with Warriner now, then I think we have to wait until Wisconsin/MSU/PSU to see what the coaches actually want to do with the passing game.
I'm not talking about them running the football in space. I definitely think Dobbins is superior to Evans there and all-around really. I was merely talking about Evans' ability as a receiver out of the backfield. His ability to run pass routes and catch the ball is as good as any RB that I've ever seen. He is just eceptional. His hands are great. He is excellent at that really. Just really pisses me off that they don't feature him that way. He should be getting 5-10 balls come his way in the passing game every single game without fail. Think: Curtis Samuel. What does Harbaugh do with him? Try to make him a a ground and pound back. Makes no sense. Literally no sense.
And yes, they should've been passing the SHIT out of the football with the 1st team QB and WR's the last 3 games. I'm talking 40 times a game just to get in the live bullet reps. You get better at playing football by....playing football. You develop that chemistry and those reps against live bullets against over-matched teams right now. Why? So when you need it later on against the better teams you've actually done in in the games. Makes zero sense to not try to get in as much work as possible and work out the kinks. They will fail against the Wisconsin, MSU, PSU, and Ohio State teams precisely because of this. They'll get into situations where they absolutely need to throw the ball and they won't have had the reps and chemistry necessary.

 

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