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Topic: #12 Wisconsin (7-2, 10-2) at #10 Minnesota (7-2, 10-2) Post Game

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847badgerfan

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#12 Wisconsin (7-2, 10-2) at #10 Minnesota (7-2, 10-2) Post Game
« on: November 24, 2019, 10:38:23 AM »
This is the biggest AXE game in my lifetime, even though the 2016 game was also for the West championship (yes, it was).

But that game was in Madison, and the Badgers overcame a 17-7 deficit at the half, to crush the Goophs' spirit.

This one is different. Thanks to Wisconsin being there, ESPN Gameday will be there too. Minnesota fans have never seen a Gameday site - home or away. That's how big this one is.

I do not have a good feeling on it, but I've not studied each teams' strengths versus their weaknesses. I'll get to that, but in my gut I see something like 38-24 in favor of the Goophs.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2019, 08:12:15 PM by ELA »
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

MarqHusker

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2019, 10:52:56 AM »
early, but decent chance of a sizable weather system somewhere in that late Friday to Sunday window.

FearlessF

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2019, 11:26:42 AM »
I'm hoping for some great northern Big Ten weather

-17 would be nice
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2019, 01:10:15 PM »
Huh, another fairly important game in this conference upcoming.

Benthere2

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2019, 10:18:25 PM »
I'm hoping for some great northern Big Ten weather

-17 would be nice
SAT

NOV 30
Rain/Snow35°27°50%E 12 mph
long ways out but....
I think wet and slippery might benefit Wisconsin and the pound the rock game

Hawkinole

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2019, 10:34:02 PM »
Rain / Snow Friday with overnight low of 32; 38/26 for Saturday 30% chance of precipitation. per accuweather.com

Minnesota has a running game, and a passing game. In fact Tanner Morgan may be the best QB in the conference. Well Fields is pretty good, too.

Wisconsin obviously has the superior running game; but a weak passing game.

Whomever wins the toss may have the advantage if they take the ball and score first. This was a key in the Minnesota-Iowa game. Iowa managed to take the early lead over Minnesota, and then does what Iowa does, manage the clock. This is what Wisconsin does well, too.

Minnesota appears to be the better team in more phases of the game. I project a 10-point Minnesota win. 

Hawkinole

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2019, 10:40:17 PM »
Apparently I don't know much.  Oddsmakers have Wisconsin as a 2½ point favorite. 

Minnesota won this game last season. I look forward to ELA's analysis.

Benthere2

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #7 on: November 24, 2019, 10:46:22 PM »
Apparently I don't know much.  Oddsmakers have Wisconsin as a 2½ point favorite.

Minnesota won this game last season. I look forward to ELA's analysis.
remember that vegas's lines are set to break even on betting not to actually pick winners and losers plus its the Gophers.. that team that hasn't been relative for 25+ years

But it will still take a very good game from either team to win

I think the Hawkeye game you came out and were better ready to start the game than the gophers- lets hope they learned a lesson that week

MarqHusker

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #8 on: November 24, 2019, 11:44:28 PM »
slight digression, Probably obvious, but the book wants level money wagered on each side, not necessarily the division of total bets (pedantry interruption over).    Defending against overwhelming sharps on one side, versus large #s of public bettors on the other.   A lot of the handle data that has been way more readily available the last few years surprisingly shows that this is not that easy for them to do.  For instance, there was a Chiefs game last year in which 90% of the money was on the Chiefs at -8 or whatever, and they covered.   Though of course they are setting lines for dozens and dozens of games, so in the aggregate they are generally operating with a healthy margin.

Some books actually take a side (take a position) which means their line is one way under or over the buik of the lines posted.  This is the book placing a bet itself, which of course is a risk, beyond simply sweeping the vig.

I've made about 18 bets on games during this season (no more than 3 in one week), and I'm not sure this is a game I'm interested in betting on.   I do look forward to this one though.   I've been to three Axe games, two pretty good ones.    This one dwarfs them all by a pretty considerable margin.

bayareabadger

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #9 on: November 24, 2019, 11:47:06 PM »
remember that vegas's lines are set to break even on betting not to actually pick winners and losers plus its the Gophers.. that team that hasn't been relative for 25+ years

But it will still take a very good game from either team to win

I think the Hawkeye game you came out and were better ready to start the game than the gophers- lets hope they learned a lesson that week
Lines are set by mathematical power rankings and then tweaked very slightly by humans. Those rankings tend to be good predictors overall, but it’s CFB so the margins are always uncertain.

Hawkinole

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2019, 12:41:34 AM »
I've been to three Axe games, two pretty good ones.    This one dwarfs them all by a pretty considerable margin.
Are you migrating to a bit of geographic allegiance with Wisconsin? Who could have imagined Minnesota presenting as a divisional leadership position in this way even one-year ago. I am not sure what to make of it, yet.

I look back and about 30-years ago the Big Ten and Iowa/Minnesota decided it would the last game of the year when Hayden and Lou Holtz were head coach. Lou Holtz left, and so the rivalry sort of deteriorated, and Wisc. v. Minnesota turned into rivalry week. 

We have had this 3-way rivalry with Iowa - Minnesota - Wisconsin, but I now think it has turned into a 4-way thing to include Nebraska.


MarqHusker

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2019, 01:03:38 AM »
One of my brothers went to U of Minn, and I have no shortage of friends who (were) in Madison, so I've had ample reason to be in both places over the years.    Since moving out of WI 10+ yrs ago, I've only been to MSP for work trips or during summer months.   I don't really have a side in the rivalry,  UW football was a public television replay late Saturday night thing at best growing up, so we never really had any rooting interest in our house, beyond my older brother a bit.   We were a Big 8 household.   Still knew enough to pay attention to the Axe (Bucket, Jug, etc.)

MrNubbz

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #12 on: November 25, 2019, 07:45:03 AM »
We have had this 3-way rivalry with Iowa - Minnesota - Wisconsin, but I now think it has turned into a 4-way thing to include Nebraska.
Always fun to watch them knock each other off - the more the merrier
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

MrNubbz

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #13 on: November 25, 2019, 07:47:42 AM »

remember that vegas's lines are set to break even on betting not to actually pick winners and losers 
Some of us know that only all too well
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

 

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