I remember thinking during the Iowa game that the kicking game could really hurt Minnesota in close games. The Badgers aren't great in the kicking game, either, but are a step ahead of the Gophers--or feel that way; Minnesota actually has the higher FG percentage, but I presume that was before Minnesota had to go to the backup kicker. He's only missed one (of four) FG attempts, but it was the only one over 30 yards (though it was over 50). The Badgers also have slightly better kick-return numbers.
Agree with the "take the ball" theory on the coin toss--and that Chryst can sometimes pull the plug on the run game before he really needs to.
Chryst likes him some tight ends, he just doesn't have many on the roster (injuries and all that). Coan is having a solid season; he's third nationally in completion percentage, and has 15 TDs against 4 INTs. He's not a star, but he's a solid quarterback who takes some pressure off the run game.
The Badger defense over-pursued against Purdue, which resulted in big trick plays. I don't think Minnesota thinks it needs trick plays to move the ball against the Badger D, but it wouldn't surprise me to see one or two thrown in...and effectively so.
And, yeah, either team that is -3 in turnovers will lose this game. I'll take it a step further, if there is a bigger than 1 turnover differential, the loser of the differential will lose the game. The Badgers lose a lot more fumbles (13 lost out of 21) than Minnesota (6, 15), so this has to be a bigger worry for Wisconsin. INTs are a lesser story; Wisconsin has had four, Minnesota six. If there's good news for the Badgers re turnovers, it's there: of Minnesota's six INTs, they have given up 113 yards on the return, whereas on the Badgers have given up ten on their four INTs.
The experts seem to think Wisconsin has played the measurably tougher schedule, though against common opponents, the results don't favor Wisconsin. Wisconsin was better against Purdue and Iowa; Minnesota was better against Illinois (notably), Nebraska, and Northwestern. Each has a quality win against a good Eastern Division opponent, with Minnesota winning a close one against PSU, and the Badgers wrecking Michigan (but that feels like a long time ago now).
The Badger D needs to make sure it bends: keep the offense in front of it and make the Gophers march downfield and score from the red zone. If they can do that, the Badgers have a good shot in this game.
