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Topic: #12 Wisconsin (7-2, 10-2) at #10 Minnesota (7-2, 10-2) Post Game

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GopherRock

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #14 on: November 25, 2019, 10:32:07 AM »
Michael v Rand at the Star Trib is calling this the biggest home game for any Minnesota team since the 1999 NFC Championship Game. Dude, that's not a good comparison.

As far as the stakes go, the last time there was this much at stake in an Axe game was 1962. The undisputed Big Ten title and the Rose Bowl were on the line in that one. A phantom roughing the passer penalty on Bobby Bell and subsequent unsporting foul on Murray Warmath kept the go-ahead drive for the weasels alive, and they won 14-9.

Yes, I know the 2014 game at Camp Randall was for the division, but those of us who were there and wearing gold had no illusions of grandeur even after leading for 3 quarters.

Winter arrives with a vengeance Tuesday night, with 6 to 8 inches of snow in the forecast and possibly a bunch more Friday night into Saturday.

No word yet on where GameDay will be set up, but the early favorites are Northrop Mall and the grassy plot in front of the Alumni Center.

Cincydawg

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #15 on: November 25, 2019, 10:38:37 AM »
It is great watching the Gophers have this season, I think, even though I have missed seeing most of their games.  Every time I think they are tapped out they win (except at Iowa).  My GUESS is Wisconsin pulls out a close win, but perhaps I say that only because I'd like the Gophers to have an historic season and Rose Bowl (or better).


847badgerfan

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U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

SFBadger96

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #17 on: November 25, 2019, 12:24:15 PM »
The Badgers are a hard team to figure out (meaning their best came early in the season), but--as with most CFB games--if they can't hang onto the ball, they lose to a good Minnesota team. They will have to win like Iowa (as noted above): get early scores, burn clock, and grind the game out on the ground. Their defense hasn't been effective against the QB-read, which Minnesota does really well. They will have to keep the Gophers in front of them, preventing big plays for scores, which--again--isn't something they have done well lately.

That's all pretty pessimistic, but looking at Medina's write-up regarding results against common opponents, I was pleasantly surprised. There's a reason the odds-makers are putting this one in the toss-up camp. Minnesota is playing well, but it isn't 2018 Clemson.

GopherRock

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #18 on: November 25, 2019, 04:29:59 PM »
Now that the preliminaries have been disposed of, some thoughts on the actual game:

1. Keep Tanner Morgan upright. This may be the most important factor of the entire day. Even after it was clear their back 7 was getting burned by TJ and Bateman on slants, Iowa committed to run-blitzing and coming after Morgan with a vengeance. Six sacks and a bunch of misthrows later, the hole was too deep to recover from.

2. This game will be won the same way a horse wins the Belmont Stakes: on the lead. Both teams should send their captains to midfield with instructions to take the ball should they win the toss. The Gophers are better put together in case they get behind, but they'd rather not be there.  Get the lead, grind out first downs, and hold on. The good part for the home team is that if the Gophers get out to a multiple-possession lead, Chryst has shown no hesitation to take the ball out of Taylor's hands when forced to play from behind.

3. Hold onto the ball. The weather is going to be awful. It's going to be snowing, sleeting, and windy.  TJ had some problems holding onto passes in heavy rain during the Nebraska game. Michael Lombardi always preaches in his podcast that a team plays better defense when they play less defense. Last year's 35 minutes of possession for MN was a prime example of this. And this is doubly important for Wisconsin. They can get away with losing 4 turnovers at home against Purdue because the Boilermakers stink. If they lose 4 turnovers at the New Brickhouse, it's going to be a long, cold, wet afternoon.

4. Don't screw up the kicking game. One way that the Gophers could have won that game in IC two weeks ago was to make that extra point. Special teams has been a hold-your-breath misadventure all year, and I'm waiting for this to really cost them. That said, it was a punt return right before the half last year that opened the game up to 17-0.

5. Figure out a way to keep the Wisconsin TE quiet. Penn State did most of their damage with the TE over the middle, and from what I saw of last week's game UW did much the same in the second half.



847badgerfan

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #19 on: November 25, 2019, 06:16:01 PM »
I just did a count and UW will be starting 5 seniors this weekend - 3 on offense and 2 on defense.

Minnie starts 8, but with only 1 of those on offense.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #20 on: November 25, 2019, 06:52:42 PM »
Looks like UGA has 5 on D and 2 on O, but they will lose some juniors to the draft.  I think many teams have far fewer seniors starting these days than in ca. 1970.

SFBadger96

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #21 on: November 25, 2019, 06:56:38 PM »
I remember thinking during the Iowa game that the kicking game could really hurt Minnesota in close games. The Badgers aren't great in the kicking game, either, but are a step ahead of the Gophers--or feel that way; Minnesota actually has the higher FG percentage, but I presume that was before Minnesota had to go to the backup kicker. He's only missed one (of four) FG attempts, but it was the only one over 30 yards (though it was over 50). The Badgers also have slightly better kick-return numbers.

Agree with the "take the ball" theory on the coin toss--and that Chryst can sometimes pull the plug on the run game before he really needs to.

Chryst likes him some tight ends, he just doesn't have many on the roster (injuries and all that). Coan is having a solid season; he's third nationally in completion percentage, and has 15 TDs against 4 INTs. He's not a star, but he's a solid quarterback who takes some  pressure off the run game.

The Badger defense over-pursued against Purdue, which resulted in big trick plays. I don't think Minnesota thinks it needs trick plays to move the ball against the Badger D, but it wouldn't surprise me to see one or two thrown in...and effectively so.

And, yeah, either team that is -3 in turnovers will lose this game. I'll take it a step further, if there is a bigger than 1 turnover differential, the loser of the differential will lose the game. The Badgers lose a lot more fumbles (13 lost out of 21) than Minnesota (6, 15), so this has to be a bigger worry for Wisconsin. INTs are a lesser story; Wisconsin has had four, Minnesota six. If there's good news for the Badgers re turnovers, it's there: of Minnesota's six INTs, they have given up 113 yards on the return, whereas on the Badgers have given up ten on their four INTs.

The experts seem to think Wisconsin has played the measurably tougher schedule, though against common opponents, the results don't favor Wisconsin. Wisconsin was better against Purdue and Iowa; Minnesota was better against Illinois (notably), Nebraska, and Northwestern. Each has a quality win against a good Eastern Division opponent, with Minnesota winning a close one against PSU, and the Badgers wrecking Michigan (but that feels like a long time ago now).

The Badger D needs to make sure it bends: keep the offense in front of it and make the Gophers march downfield and score from the red zone. If they can do that, the Badgers have a good shot in this game.


FearlessF

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #22 on: November 25, 2019, 08:38:50 PM »
Looks like UGA has 5 on D and 2 on O, but they will lose some juniors to the draft.  I think many teams have far fewer seniors starting these days than in ca. 1970.
Tom Osborne didn't like being forced to put Jrs & sophs in the starting lineup
he probably blames underclassmen for 40 of his 49 losses
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."


SFBadger96

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #24 on: November 26, 2019, 04:35:09 PM »
True story: Cyrus Northrop is my great-great grandfather.


SFBadger96

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #25 on: November 26, 2019, 05:37:07 PM »
And I'm just going to leave this here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCD727VE13c

Cincydawg

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #26 on: November 26, 2019, 05:47:11 PM »
Punt, Gophers, punt.


Hawkinole

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Re: #12 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2) at #10 Minnesota (10-1, 7-1) Game Week
« Reply #27 on: November 27, 2019, 01:31:13 AM »

No word yet on where GameDay will be set up, but the early favorites are Northrop Mall and the grassy plot in front of the Alumni Center.
Might want to move it to Williams Arena.

 

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