CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: 847badgerfan on November 24, 2019, 10:38:23 AM
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This is the biggest AXE game in my lifetime, even though the 2016 game was also for the West championship (yes, it was).
But that game was in Madison, and the Badgers overcame a 17-7 deficit at the half, to crush the Goophs' spirit.
This one is different. Thanks to Wisconsin being there, ESPN Gameday will be there too. Minnesota fans have never seen a Gameday site - home or away. That's how big this one is.
I do not have a good feeling on it, but I've not studied each teams' strengths versus their weaknesses. I'll get to that, but in my gut I see something like 38-24 in favor of the Goophs.
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early, but decent chance of a sizable weather system somewhere in that late Friday to Sunday window.
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I'm hoping for some great northern Big Ten weather
-17 would be nice
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Huh, another fairly important game in this conference upcoming.
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I'm hoping for some great northern Big Ten weather
-17 would be nice
SAT
NOV 30 | Rain/Snow | 35°27° | 50% | E 12 mph |
long ways out but....
I think wet and slippery might benefit Wisconsin and the pound the rock game
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Rain / Snow Friday with overnight low of 32; 38/26 for Saturday 30% chance of precipitation. per accuweather.com
Minnesota has a running game, and a passing game. In fact Tanner Morgan may be the best QB in the conference. Well Fields is pretty good, too.
Wisconsin obviously has the superior running game; but a weak passing game.
Whomever wins the toss may have the advantage if they take the ball and score first. This was a key in the Minnesota-Iowa game. Iowa managed to take the early lead over Minnesota, and then does what Iowa does, manage the clock. This is what Wisconsin does well, too.
Minnesota appears to be the better team in more phases of the game. I project a 10-point Minnesota win.
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Apparently I don't know much. Oddsmakers have Wisconsin as a 2½ point favorite.
Minnesota won this game last season. I look forward to ELA's analysis.
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Apparently I don't know much. Oddsmakers have Wisconsin as a 2½ point favorite.
Minnesota won this game last season. I look forward to ELA's analysis.
remember that vegas's lines are set to break even on betting not to actually pick winners and losers plus its the Gophers.. that team that hasn't been relative for 25+ years
But it will still take a very good game from either team to win
I think the Hawkeye game you came out and were better ready to start the game than the gophers- lets hope they learned a lesson that week
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slight digression, Probably obvious, but the book wants level money wagered on each side, not necessarily the division of total bets (pedantry interruption over). Defending against overwhelming sharps on one side, versus large #s of public bettors on the other. A lot of the handle data that has been way more readily available the last few years surprisingly shows that this is not that easy for them to do. For instance, there was a Chiefs game last year in which 90% of the money was on the Chiefs at -8 or whatever, and they covered. Though of course they are setting lines for dozens and dozens of games, so in the aggregate they are generally operating with a healthy margin.
Some books actually take a side (take a position) which means their line is one way under or over the buik of the lines posted. This is the book placing a bet itself, which of course is a risk, beyond simply sweeping the vig.
I've made about 18 bets on games during this season (no more than 3 in one week), and I'm not sure this is a game I'm interested in betting on. I do look forward to this one though. I've been to three Axe games, two pretty good ones. This one dwarfs them all by a pretty considerable margin.
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remember that vegas's lines are set to break even on betting not to actually pick winners and losers plus its the Gophers.. that team that hasn't been relative for 25+ years
But it will still take a very good game from either team to win
I think the Hawkeye game you came out and were better ready to start the game than the gophers- lets hope they learned a lesson that week
Lines are set by mathematical power rankings and then tweaked very slightly by humans. Those rankings tend to be good predictors overall, but it’s CFB so the margins are always uncertain.
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I've been to three Axe games, two pretty good ones. This one dwarfs them all by a pretty considerable margin.
Are you migrating to a bit of geographic allegiance with Wisconsin? Who could have imagined Minnesota presenting as a divisional leadership position in this way even one-year ago. I am not sure what to make of it, yet.
I look back and about 30-years ago the Big Ten and Iowa/Minnesota decided it would the last game of the year when Hayden and Lou Holtz were head coach. Lou Holtz left, and so the rivalry sort of deteriorated, and Wisc. v. Minnesota turned into rivalry week.
We have had this 3-way rivalry with Iowa - Minnesota - Wisconsin, but I now think it has turned into a 4-way thing to include Nebraska.
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One of my brothers went to U of Minn, and I have no shortage of friends who (were) in Madison, so I've had ample reason to be in both places over the years. Since moving out of WI 10+ yrs ago, I've only been to MSP for work trips or during summer months. I don't really have a side in the rivalry, UW football was a public television replay late Saturday night thing at best growing up, so we never really had any rooting interest in our house, beyond my older brother a bit. We were a Big 8 household. Still knew enough to pay attention to the Axe (Bucket, Jug, etc.)
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We have had this 3-way rivalry with Iowa - Minnesota - Wisconsin, but I now think it has turned into a 4-way thing to include Nebraska.
Always fun to watch them knock each other off - the more the merrier
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remember that vegas's lines are set to break even on betting not to actually pick winners and losers
Some of us know that only all too well
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Michael v Rand at the Star Trib is calling this the biggest home game for any Minnesota team since the 1999 NFC Championship Game. Dude, that's not a good comparison.
As far as the stakes go, the last time there was this much at stake in an Axe game was 1962. The undisputed Big Ten title and the Rose Bowl were on the line in that one. A phantom roughing the passer penalty on Bobby Bell and subsequent unsporting foul on Murray Warmath kept the go-ahead drive for the weasels alive, and they won 14-9.
Yes, I know the 2014 game at Camp Randall was for the division, but those of us who were there and wearing gold had no illusions of grandeur even after leading for 3 quarters.
Winter arrives with a vengeance Tuesday night, with 6 to 8 inches of snow in the forecast and possibly a bunch more Friday night into Saturday.
No word yet on where GameDay will be set up, but the early favorites are Northrop Mall and the grassy plot in front of the Alumni Center.
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It is great watching the Gophers have this season, I think, even though I have missed seeing most of their games. Every time I think they are tapped out they win (except at Iowa). My GUESS is Wisconsin pulls out a close win, but perhaps I say that only because I'd like the Gophers to have an historic season and Rose Bowl (or better).
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https://twitter.com/JakeKoco/status/1198997302003818496
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The Badgers are a hard team to figure out (meaning their best came early in the season), but--as with most CFB games--if they can't hang onto the ball, they lose to a good Minnesota team. They will have to win like Iowa (as noted above): get early scores, burn clock, and grind the game out on the ground. Their defense hasn't been effective against the QB-read, which Minnesota does really well. They will have to keep the Gophers in front of them, preventing big plays for scores, which--again--isn't something they have done well lately.
That's all pretty pessimistic, but looking at Medina's write-up regarding results against common opponents, I was pleasantly surprised. There's a reason the odds-makers are putting this one in the toss-up camp. Minnesota is playing well, but it isn't 2018 Clemson.
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Now that the preliminaries have been disposed of, some thoughts on the actual game:
1. Keep Tanner Morgan upright. This may be the most important factor of the entire day. Even after it was clear their back 7 was getting burned by TJ and Bateman on slants, Iowa committed to run-blitzing and coming after Morgan with a vengeance. Six sacks and a bunch of misthrows later, the hole was too deep to recover from.
2. This game will be won the same way a horse wins the Belmont Stakes: on the lead. Both teams should send their captains to midfield with instructions to take the ball should they win the toss. The Gophers are better put together in case they get behind, but they'd rather not be there. Get the lead, grind out first downs, and hold on. The good part for the home team is that if the Gophers get out to a multiple-possession lead, Chryst has shown no hesitation to take the ball out of Taylor's hands when forced to play from behind.
3. Hold onto the ball. The weather is going to be awful. It's going to be snowing, sleeting, and windy. TJ had some problems holding onto passes in heavy rain during the Nebraska game. Michael Lombardi always preaches in his podcast that a team plays better defense when they play less defense. Last year's 35 minutes of possession for MN was a prime example of this. And this is doubly important for Wisconsin. They can get away with losing 4 turnovers at home against Purdue because the Boilermakers stink. If they lose 4 turnovers at the New Brickhouse, it's going to be a long, cold, wet afternoon.
4. Don't screw up the kicking game. One way that the Gophers could have won that game in IC two weeks ago was to make that extra point. Special teams has been a hold-your-breath misadventure all year, and I'm waiting for this to really cost them. That said, it was a punt return right before the half last year that opened the game up to 17-0.
5. Figure out a way to keep the Wisconsin TE quiet. Penn State did most of their damage with the TE over the middle, and from what I saw of last week's game UW did much the same in the second half.
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I just did a count and UW will be starting 5 seniors this weekend - 3 on offense and 2 on defense.
Minnie starts 8, but with only 1 of those on offense.
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Looks like UGA has 5 on D and 2 on O, but they will lose some juniors to the draft. I think many teams have far fewer seniors starting these days than in ca. 1970.
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I remember thinking during the Iowa game that the kicking game could really hurt Minnesota in close games. The Badgers aren't great in the kicking game, either, but are a step ahead of the Gophers--or feel that way; Minnesota actually has the higher FG percentage, but I presume that was before Minnesota had to go to the backup kicker. He's only missed one (of four) FG attempts, but it was the only one over 30 yards (though it was over 50). The Badgers also have slightly better kick-return numbers.
Agree with the "take the ball" theory on the coin toss--and that Chryst can sometimes pull the plug on the run game before he really needs to.
Chryst likes him some tight ends, he just doesn't have many on the roster (injuries and all that). Coan is having a solid season; he's third nationally in completion percentage, and has 15 TDs against 4 INTs. He's not a star, but he's a solid quarterback who takes some pressure off the run game.
The Badger defense over-pursued against Purdue, which resulted in big trick plays. I don't think Minnesota thinks it needs trick plays to move the ball against the Badger D, but it wouldn't surprise me to see one or two thrown in...and effectively so.
And, yeah, either team that is -3 in turnovers will lose this game. I'll take it a step further, if there is a bigger than 1 turnover differential, the loser of the differential will lose the game. The Badgers lose a lot more fumbles (13 lost out of 21) than Minnesota (6, 15), so this has to be a bigger worry for Wisconsin. INTs are a lesser story; Wisconsin has had four, Minnesota six. If there's good news for the Badgers re turnovers, it's there: of Minnesota's six INTs, they have given up 113 yards on the return, whereas on the Badgers have given up ten on their four INTs.
The experts seem to think Wisconsin has played the measurably tougher schedule, though against common opponents, the results don't favor Wisconsin. Wisconsin was better against Purdue and Iowa; Minnesota was better against Illinois (notably), Nebraska, and Northwestern. Each has a quality win against a good Eastern Division opponent, with Minnesota winning a close one against PSU, and the Badgers wrecking Michigan (but that feels like a long time ago now).
The Badger D needs to make sure it bends: keep the offense in front of it and make the Gophers march downfield and score from the red zone. If they can do that, the Badgers have a good shot in this game.
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Looks like UGA has 5 on D and 2 on O, but they will lose some juniors to the draft. I think many teams have far fewer seniors starting these days than in ca. 1970.
Tom Osborne didn't like being forced to put Jrs & sophs in the starting lineup
he probably blames underclassmen for 40 of his 49 losses
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https://twitter.com/GopherSports/status/1199375332517859329?s=19
https://twitter.com/MplsParkBoard/status/1199388021147213826?s=19
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True story: Cyrus Northrop is my great-great grandfather.
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And I'm just going to leave this here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCD727VE13c (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCD727VE13c)
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Punt, Gophers, punt.
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No word yet on where GameDay will be set up, but the early favorites are Northrop Mall and the grassy plot in front of the Alumni Center.
Might want to move it to Williams Arena.
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Tom Osborne didn't like being forced to put Jrs & sophs in the starting lineup
he probably blames underclassmen for 40 of his 49 losses
Octogenarians are the new septuagenarians. Juniors are the new seniors.
Life is back asswards for people in our generation.
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Play em before they transfer
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https://twitter.com/GopherHistorian/status/1199333649776168961?s=19
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Play em before they transfer
even if they can't execute and cost you a game
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https://twitter.com/GopherHistorian/status/1199333649776168961?s=19
Looks as though the Gophers had quite a following back then.
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mostly Badger fans in the picture, I presume
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I love these old photos of about anything, especially "common scenes" in America (or elsewhere). It's easy to ponder what life would have been like back in the day. Of course, some of us were alive "back in the day".
(https://i.imgur.com/joKmO8X.png)
This is 1895 UGA-Auburn played across the street from where I sit. The train tracks are now the "Eastside Beltline".++
(https://i.imgur.com/27sTP1X.png)
1919 Vanderbilt game, they had some good teams back in the day along with Yale etc.
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Vegas has the Badgers favored by 3.
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Vegas' job is to make money, not to predict games.
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Vegas' job is to make money, not to predict games.
I think Vegas has it right.
One could run the narrative this way: Wisconsin loss to the unanimous best (according to votes on this board) team in the conference in their house, and kept the game close till injury to O line. Wisconsin also got flat out upset by an inferior team who played lights out, (perhaps caught looking ahead towards that match up against said best team.)
Minnesota played lights out and got an upset against a top 10 team at home. Their next toughest opponent Iowa lead the entire game against them.
The rest of the season Wisconsin has simply been better than Minnesota.
I see Wisconsin getting an early 2 score lead then Johnathan Taylor grinding their way to a victory. Minnesota may get a late score to make it look closer than it is, and the 3 point win Vegas has, may be about right.
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was a good game until it wasn't
Corngrats to the Badgers
Good luck vs the Buckeyes - yer gonna need it
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I think Vegas has it right.
Lots of people lost a lot of money, taking Minnie +3.
I'm fine with this.
The AXE is back where it belongs, next to the other rivalry trophies. It's good to have the case full.
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Good luck vs the Buckeyes - yer gonna need it
Yeah, no kidding.
I was secretly hoping that Minnie would be undefeated going into yesterday, so as to have the division wrapped up (and a date with OSU). Then, the Badgers come into MPLS and crush the Goophs, and their spirit, their dreams, and their season.
But, nope. Barnum had to crap his bed in Iowa City, and wreck my master plan.
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I think the gooph's spirit, their dreams, and their season are just fine
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Probably not, at least for the spirit of their 8 seniors on defense.
PJ Barnum is a tool. And Chris Orr is not afraid to let him know about it:
"We just felt like [Minnesota] disrespected the Axe by renting it out to people, having it [where] any and everybody could touch it," Orr added, candidly, after the game. "It means more than that."
"It's not just a little commodity or something that you can just rent out for money or whatever the case is trying to make profit off of it."
"We felt like that was disrespectful and didn't honor the players that came before. They also lied and said only seniors can touch it and only the seniors chop. So we felt like it was disrespectful of them to do that."
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https://twitter.com/ego_pj/status/1200988518551638016
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gotta find your motivation where you can
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No doubt there was some stupidity from the Fat Bret era that needed to be dialed down, but that guy clearly does not understand the concept of the spoils going to the winner to dispose of as they see fit.
For those bothered by this, what is the proper disposition of the Axe? Seniors only get to touch it postgame, then it's locked away in the vault below Anderson Library until the day of the next year's game? UW has already lost one trophy this way.
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The proper disposition?
I don't know, but whoring it out is certainly not the answer. Locked up in a case is more like it, to me anyway.
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you win the trophy it's your to do as you please
obviously the Badgers did not agree with what the Gophers did
obviously the gophers don't agree with locking it up
most times rivals don't agree on such things
don't want the gophers to whore it around town??? don't let them have it - that's on the Badgers
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I don't like the idea of players acting as a dog urinating after a score - happy that karma spoke up
I don't like the idea of kickers taunting the opposing sideline after a FG
but, it doesn't bother me that much - stupid kids gonna do stupid things
there's a simple solution, play better and don't allow stupid kids to be in that position
I'm not in favor of an unsportsmanlike penalty after a Sooner throws the Horns Down symbol
If I'm the coach in charge I'm not allowing players to act with no class or selfish acts, but not all coaches feel the same way
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I don't like the idea of players acting as a dog urinating after a score - happy that karma spoke up
I don't like the idea of kickers taunting the opposing sideline after a FG
but, it doesn't bother me that much - stupid kids gonna do stupid things
there's a simple solution, play better and don't allow stupid kids to be in that position
I'm not in favor of an unsportsmanlike penalty after a Sooner throws the Horns Down symbol
If I'm the coach in charge I'm not allowing players to act with no class or selfish acts, but not all coaches feel the same way
Watch out! You're violating the Big 12 Gag Rule.
You'll be lucky to escape without being fined for unsportsmanlike conduct yourself.
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the Big 12 commish is a bit too sensative
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the Big 12 commish is a bit too sensative
He's not alone.
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hey now.......... don't get yourself in hot water!
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Oops!
I meant to say that I join with the commissioner in condemning these vile actions of disrespect and poor sportsmanship.
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Oops!
I meant to say that I join with the commissioner in condemning these vile actions of disrespect and poor sportsmanship.
Too late.
Penalty enforced on the kickoff or PAT?
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Carried over to the opening game of next season.
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https://twitter.com/Matt_OConnell_/status/1201182653128593411
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To my knowledge, an NFL team has never rented out the Stanley Cup like a cheap whore, to make money on it. Unreal that someone could even think to make that comparison.
It's back in the case, where it belongs.
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Couldn't care less about how Minnesota "treated" the Axe. They should have been excited to have it back after a big upset, and 14 years without it.
Orr gets worked up over some pretty small stuff, IMO.
More importantly, a key play that seems largely overlooked in this game:
at 17-7 in the third quarter, Ibrahim rips off a 36-yard gain around the left edge, but as Ibrahim is about to pull away and possible take it to the house, Wisconsin linebacker Bell dives for an ankle tackle, bringing him down at the Wisconsin 22, potentially taking away a TD and a major momentum shift. Two incomplete passes and a short run, and the Gophers kick a field goal, to make it 17-10. 17-14 would have looked and felt much different. The Badgers respond with a clever kick return and a quick touchdown on two plays to make it 24-10, and now the Gophers are in a real hole, and an offense that was already struggling has to try to play catch-up.
I haven't seen any attention paid to that play, but it was one of the little things that turned a very tight game into a blowout.
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To my knowledge, an NFL team has never rented out the Stanley Cup like a cheap whore, to make money on it. Unreal that someone could even think to make that comparison.
It's back in the case, where it belongs.
What Minnesota did is fine.
That Orr and UW wanted to use it for motivation, also fine, but it’s silly for fans to get bent out of shape. They won it back, all it a day.
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I think taking a 70+ year old trophy and renting it out for events is pretty low - and not at all surprising given the ringleader in MPLS.
I watched that play by Bell (good for him!) and told my F-I-L that holding them to 3 could turn out huge. It did.
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https://twitter.com/BadgerFootball/status/1201256822449070082
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https://twitter.com/BadgerFootball/status/1200926083702542339
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might be tougher to keep it home if the ringleader sticks around