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Topic: #10 Ohio State (6-1, 9-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-3, 6-4) Post Game

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MaximumSam

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #84 on: November 07, 2018, 10:00:31 AM »
To-date, Michigan has played a better group of teams than Alabama. Full stop.
Ah, ok, sure.  But Bama finishes with a much tougher schedule than Michigan, which was what puzzled me about your comment.  It is very unlikely that Michigan will have any sort of SOS argument at the end of the season.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2018, 11:31:50 AM by MaximumSam »

Temp430

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #85 on: November 07, 2018, 11:06:58 AM »
Assuming Michigan wins out and Georgia beats Alabama in the conference championship....can you imagine the blow back if Alabama edges out Michigan out of the playoff?  Two SEC, the ACC champ Clemson, and Notre Dame (semi-ACC) will piss a lot of people off.  Not sure how I would feel.  The Rose Bowl is a pretty good place to end up.
A decade of Victory over Penn State.

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FearlessF

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #86 on: November 07, 2018, 11:11:25 AM »
and also imagine the reverse......... Georgia beats Bama in a very close game

Bama doesn't make the playoff at #5

chaos 

most would love it, but it would cause some waves
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #87 on: November 07, 2018, 11:17:34 AM »
ND is the key.  If they lose, things obviously open up for OU and a one loss Bama team.

Were I the committee, I personally would view a conference CG as a play in game, lose and you're out.  You had your shot.  Now this "four best team FOR THE PLAYOFF" wording is interesting to me.  Are the final three words meaningful or just throw ins?

The "four best teams" might different from "TFBT FOR THE PLAYOFF" in some years.


TyphonInc

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #88 on: November 07, 2018, 11:57:47 AM »
Was surprised to see so much chatter about the OSU MSU game, only to be disappointed that it's a "Is M*ch worthy of a playoff spot?" thread.

I think OSU has the talent to win the game, but I still have a bad taste from their last road game.
I think Dantonio is an excellent coach, I think he will have MSU off the charts motivated, and it's at East Lansing. 

All that said I hope it's a really good game, and with my heart I hope OSU gets the W. But I'm not confident about that at all.

ELA

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #89 on: November 07, 2018, 12:02:31 PM »
Was surprised to see so much chatter about the OSU MSU game, only to be disappointed that it's a "Is M*ch worthy of a playoff spot?" thread.

I think Dantonio is an excellent coach, I think he will have MSU off the charts motivated, and it's at East Lansing.
Which has not helped MSU in a long time in this series.

TyphonInc

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #90 on: November 07, 2018, 12:17:25 PM »
Which has not helped MSU in a long time in this series.
True~ish. Hasn't Medina showed several times that the better team won regardless of location. OSU has more Recruiting Stars, not sure that translates into a better team. And OSU crapped the bed on it's last road game. 
If this was in Columbus I'd prolly take OSU -7. In East Lansing, I don't know, we could have a Purdue Part Duex.

ELA

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #91 on: November 07, 2018, 12:30:17 PM »
True~ish. Hasn't Medina showed several times that the better team won regardless of location. OSU has more Recruiting Stars, not sure that translates into a better team. And OSU crapped the bed on it's last road game.
If this was in Columbus I'd prolly take OSU -7. In East Lansing, I don't know, we could have a Purdue Part Duex.
Right, that home field isn't a disadvantage, it's just irrelevant.

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #92 on: November 07, 2018, 12:32:23 PM »
Looking it up, MSU has only won this game in East Lansing twice since the early seventies, and both were prior to the turn of the Millennium. 

1988 and 1999.

They did it twice while Archie Griffin was playing, but only once at any point before that; clear back in 1965. 

So only five home wins total, in 21 tries. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

MaximumSam

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #93 on: November 07, 2018, 12:39:19 PM »
My expert prediction for this game:

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

medinabuckeye1

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #94 on: November 07, 2018, 12:45:22 PM »
True~ish. Hasn't Medina showed several times that the better team won regardless of location. 
It was really more ELA than me but here it is:  From 2008 through 2017 the Buckeyes and Spartans have played eight times in ten years.  They did not play in 2009 and 2010.  They were not scheduled to play in 2013 but met in the B1GCG.  In those eight games:
  • The Buckeyes lead 4-0 in East Lansing.  
  • The Spartans lead 2-1 in Columbus.  
  • The Spartans won the neutral site game.  
  • Overall the Buckeyes lead 5-3.  

The games:
  • In 2008 tOSU went 10-3, MSU went 9-4, tOSU won HUGE (45-7) in East Lansing.  Better* team won.  
  • In 2011 tOSU went 6-7, MSU went 11-3, MSU won in Columbus (10-7).  Better team won.  
  • In 2012 tOSU went 12-0, MSU went 7-6, tOSU won in East Lansing (17-16).  Better team won.  
  • In 2013 tOSU went 12-2, MSU went 13-1, MSU won in Indianapolis (34-24).  Better* team won.  
  • In 2014 tOSU went 14-1 and won the NC, MSU went 11-2, tOSU won in East Lansing (49-37).  Better* team won.  
  • In 2015 tOSU went 12-1, MSU went 12-2, MSU won in Columbus (17-14).  Better* team lost.  
  • In 2016 tOSU went 11-2, MSU went 3-9, tOSU won in East Lansing (17-16).  Better team won.  
  • In 2017 tOSU went 12-2, MSU went 10-3, tOSU won in Columbus (48-3).  Better* team won.  

I would say that the better team is 7-1.  The only clear exception was Ohio State's inexplicable loss in 2015.  In 2008, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2017 the two teams finished within a few games of each other so there might be some plausible argument as to which was better.  

They have mostly been pretty good games.  You have:
  • Two blowouts:  tOSU won by 45 last year and by 38 in 2008.  
  • Two reasonably competitive games:  MSU won by 10 in 2013 and tOSU won by 12 in 2014.  
  • Four games decided by a FG or less:  MSU won by a FG in 2011 and 2015, tOSU won by one in 2012 and 2016.  

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #95 on: November 07, 2018, 12:51:51 PM »
Ah, ok, sure.  But Bama finishes with a much tougher schedule than Michigan, which was what puzzled me about your comment.  It is very unlikely that Michigan will have any sort of SOS argument at the end of the season.
I don't agree that Bama's SOS will inevitably be better. Since this is only relevant if Bama loses and Michigan wins out, let's review it like that: 
  • Alabama will have played 4 ranked teams and 2 top ten team and will have lost to the best one
  • Michigan will have played 5 ranked teams and 2 top ten teams and will have lost to the best one
It won't be quite that simple (maybe Auburn and MissSt fall out; ditto PSU/UW, as one example), but Michigan could well finish with the better SOS.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #96 on: November 07, 2018, 12:53:29 PM »
ND is the key.  If they lose, things obviously open up for OU and a one loss Bama team.
Ditto Clemson. Neither the Irish nor the Tigers get in with 1 loss unless there's chaos before the final vote.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #97 on: November 07, 2018, 12:55:29 PM »
True~ish. Hasn't Medina showed several times that the better team won regardless of location. OSU has more Recruiting Stars, not sure that translates into a better team. And OSU crapped the bed on it's last road game.
If this was in Columbus I'd prolly take OSU -7. In East Lansing, I don't know, we could have a Purdue Part Duex.
I agree with this. It's entirely possible that MSU is better than OSU. I don't believe that, but there are weirdly many unknowns this late in the Big Ten season, so the "margin of error" is high.

 

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