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Topic: #10 Ohio State (6-1, 9-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-3, 6-4) Post Game

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MaximumSam

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Re: #8 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #24 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #70 on: November 06, 2018, 06:40:39 PM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on November 06, 2018, 06:31:35 PM
I don't think we are confusing these concepts. I just think we favor different stringencies. I think there's a 99+% chance that M is in if it wins out. By practical definition, that's controlling one's destiny. Yours is more mathematically rigorous, which I respect logically but find less useful.
I mean by probability, it is unlikely that all these teams win out. It is unlikely Georgia beats alabama, they and Notre Dame otherwise win out. If that does happen, Michigan is probably out. Is the chance of that happening over 1 percent? Probably.
Other scenarios that oklahoma looks great, Michigan doesn't, and Michigan's opponents crap themselves down the stretch. Also hardly outside the realm of possibility.
So yes, definitely think it's overstating the case to say Michigan when there are very real circumstances that would keep them out.
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Mdot21

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Re: #8 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #24 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #71 on: November 06, 2018, 07:31:37 PM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 06, 2018, 06:40:39 PM
I mean by probability, it is unlikely that all these teams win out. It is unlikely Georgia beats alabama, they and Notre Dame otherwise win out. If that does happen, Michigan is probably out. Is the chance of that happening over 1 percent? Probably.
Other scenarios that oklahoma looks great, Michigan doesn't, and Michigan's opponents crap themselves down the stretch. Also hardly outside the realm of possibility.
So yes, definitely think it's overstating the case to say Michigan when there are very real circumstances that would keep them out.
Nah.If Michigan wins out, they are in. Big if. That Ohio State is in Columbus. That's a huge hurdle they have to overcome.
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MaximumSam

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Re: #8 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #24 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #72 on: November 06, 2018, 07:37:22 PM »
Wishful thinking. The problem is Michigan's best win is basically what Alabama has done in every game. It's hard to envision the committee leaving them out.
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Mdot21

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Re: #8 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #24 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #73 on: November 06, 2018, 07:44:20 PM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 06, 2018, 07:37:22 PM
Wishful thinking. The problem is Michigan's best win is basically what Alabama has done in every game. It's hard to envision the committee leaving them out.
Michigan State, Penn State, and Ohio State will all more than likely finish the regular season ranked in the Top 25. Michigan also played a top 4 ND team in a very close game on the road, at night, to open the season.
Alabama is looking at probably only LSU being ranked. Forget win. Only TEAM they'll have played that finished the season ranked. They are about to spank Miss State and knock them out of the top 25. Then they have The Citadel and Auburn- who sucks. Only team on their schedule that will be ranked is LSU, and LSU isn't done losing yet. They were severely overranked and their QB/offense flat out sucks.
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: #8 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #24 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #74 on: November 06, 2018, 09:20:12 PM »
Yeah, Michigan's SOS is far superior to Bama's. If Bama loses once, they may well fall behind Michigan. 
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Reyd

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #75 on: November 06, 2018, 11:32:50 PM »
Michigan controls it's destiny. The football gods control their fate. Semantics guys.
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bayareabadger

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #76 on: November 07, 2018, 12:53:03 AM »
I can’t shake the feeling that I won’t crown Michigan until the clock says 0:00 and they’re up on Nov. 24

Until then, I assume OSU will spoil 
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MaximumSam

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #77 on: November 07, 2018, 02:22:30 AM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on November 06, 2018, 09:20:12 PM
Yeah, Michigan's SOS is far superior to Bama's. If Bama loses once, they may well fall behind Michigan.
wut
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MaximumSam

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #78 on: November 07, 2018, 07:09:23 AM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on November 06, 2018, 04:02:51 PM
Haskins having Navarre-like mobility is a complication, but of course OSU can still do the read-option run game if they play Tate Martell. In the red zone, for example.They did. Of course, UNL is 92nd in S&P+ run D. Which confounds an easy interpretation. For transparency, I think you could be right. I just think it's premature to conclude it.
Oh, I don't expect some monstrous run game all of a sudden.  However, they were mostly trotting out last year's run playbook, along with some RPO's, and that wasn't working without a rushing quarterback who always wants to throw.  So they moved to some newer stuff that is more in line with having a dropback quarterback, and they were improved.  In any event, the offense hasn't been an issue - they are 3rd by S&p+ and have only had one game where they gained fewer than 480 yards.  
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MrNubbz

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #79 on: November 07, 2018, 07:59:56 AM »
No he doesn't he was sacked 5.5 X and hurried god knows how many times.When you rush the ball 25 X and get 12 yds kinda tells the story of who controlled the Line of Scrimmage.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2018, 08:03:55 AM by MrNubbz »
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #80 on: November 07, 2018, 08:15:55 AM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 07, 2018, 02:22:30 AM
wut
To-date, Michigan has played a better group of teams than Alabama. Full stop.
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #81 on: November 07, 2018, 08:20:40 AM »
Michigan's SOS according to Bill Connelly: 23rd
Alabama's: 57th
Before LSU this weekend, the Tide hadn't built their resume on *anything* except MOV. They looked like a #1, but they haven't racked up special scalps like a #1 because special teams hadn't been anywhere on their schedule. Now they have played one, singular. It's that basic.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2018, 08:24:22 AM by Anonymous Coward »
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Anonymous Coward

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #82 on: November 07, 2018, 08:21:33 AM »
Quote from: MaximumSam on November 07, 2018, 07:09:23 AM
Oh, I don't expect some monstrous run game all of a sudden.  However, they were mostly trotting out last year's run playbook, along with some RPO's, and that wasn't working without a rushing quarterback who always wants to throw.  So they moved to some newer stuff that is more in line with having a dropback quarterback, and they were improved.  In any event, the offense hasn't been an issue - they are 3rd by S&p+ and have only had one game where they gained fewer than 480 yards.  
Michigan doesn't want OSU to figure it out to a 2014ish level. Of the options Michigan wants, where OSU does not figure out the run game, I'd bet that abandoning RPOs for a traditional run game is even better for M.
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ELA

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Re: #10 Ohio State (5-1, 8-1) at #18 Michigan State (4-2, 6-3) Game Week
« Reply #83 on: November 07, 2018, 09:12:57 AM »
Is Willikes working his way from walk on to potential early draft entrant?


https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1060165740161089536
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