Ha, well yeah. But that wasn't anyone's point. I was specifically asking about the deep ball and whether we expect 1-3 long completions or possibly not even. I guess we need to further distinguish long by YAC and through the air and I mean the latter.
I'm honestly not sure how to respond to this. No, Coan won't be as good against Michigan as against the directional schools. How many completions will he hit? Not zero. Over 15 yards? I would be surprised if the answer were zero, but maybe Michigan is that good. It will still key off of the running game; that's how Wisconsin plays. If Taylor is gaining yards in chunks, Coan will hit some longer strikes. If he isn't, that's less likely.
To return to my theme, we just don't have enough data right now (at least for me) to have a good sense for how this goes. As the most obvious example, we were all ready to crown Maryland as a real threat after two huge wins, including against Syracuse. Now Syracuse looks bad, and with another loss to Temple, Maryland doesn't look much different from last season.
Wisconsin doesn't look the same
against cupcakes as it did last season, nor does Michigan look the same
against non-conference foes. Neither of those data points are enough right now to make me feel like I'm particularly informed about how this game will go. I would love to see all of the following: Wisconsin's offense is much different with a competent QB; Wisconsin's defense is much different with an actual depth chart that isn't just freshman and sophomores; Michigan's QB is a mess, who can't make reads; Michigan's offense keeps putting the ball on the turf; and Michigan's defense isn't as good up front as it was last season, allowing the Badgers more yards on the ground. All of those things would be consistent with what we've seen in the first two games for each team, and if all that were true in proportion to how these teams looked at this time last year, Wisconsin will win this game going away.
I very much doubt that.
My best guess is that Wisconsin wins this game 20-13, in a typical Alvarez-Era, Camp Randall, Wisconsin vs. Michigan football game. But that's what it is: a guess. A couple of turnovers and this game looks a lot different (in either direction).