I don't expect Chryst to vary from the script early. Wisconsin is always at a disadvantage to teams like Michigan in the WR vs. CB matchups. You don't counter that by going deep when you have the ball; you counter that by controlling the ball and the clock. Chryst is much more likely to want to keep the total number of possessions low and control field position (one of Michigan's problems against Army was typical of playing the triple option service academies--they only had a handful of possessions per half). He will likely be happy to trade punts and clock to prevent turnovers and opportunities for Michigan big plays.
The offense/defense match-up when the Badgers have the ball looks to me like a typical smash-mouth Big Ten game, one you could have seen anytime since the King showed up in Madison. The Badgers will play to their strength, and look for play action once a little bit of running game is established. If the Badgers score more than 20, I really like their chances.
Michigan's offense looks like a work in progress, and with their turnover issues to date, the Badgers will want to keep the play in front of them and will trade yards and clock to limit big plays, while also looking for the Michigan mistakes. But, as always, Michigan will have some guys who can score in a hurry through the Badgers defense.
If the Badgers score in the teens, I see a nail biter. If they can't crack 10, two big plays will beat them.
One problem for Wisconsin is they currently don't really trust their kicker. I don't know how Michigan's is, but trading field goals doesn't feel like a great recipe for the Badgers.
On the turnover front, J.T. has had fumble problems, so that's a bit of a concern, but I bet he's been working on it in the off season. If there is a 4-1 turnover ration (Michigan has fumbled four times in teach of its two games; the Badgers once each), I like the Badgers' chances.
