I'd say it depends in part on how the team looks, an eye test. A team might lose games while looking prepared, playing hard, not quitting, but just not have the talent. If recruiting goes fairly well, I'd give a HC 5 years to start winning, coming from a low point.
I wouldn't worry overly about his PR skills.
After three years one should be able to see both improvement and promise for the future. If not, well, the seat gets warm.