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Topic: North Carolina hires Mack Brown

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BrownCounty

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Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
« Reply #112 on: October 01, 2019, 01:39:10 PM »
utee is 100% comfortable that his opinion is better than Stewart Mandell's.

I mean, the proof is in the pudding.
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utee94

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Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
« Reply #113 on: October 01, 2019, 01:41:59 PM »
Setting me up to compare myself against a college football mediot is a pretty low bar.

So yeah, I'm still good.
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FearlessF

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Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
« Reply #114 on: October 01, 2019, 02:20:21 PM »
Quote from: CWSooner on October 01, 2019, 12:37:13 PM
“I’d love to (teach) a class at Northwestern on analytics,” Fitzgerald said.

Fitz could explain it to Utee, but he couldn't make him understand it

;)
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utee94

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Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
« Reply #115 on: October 01, 2019, 03:00:48 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on October 01, 2019, 02:20:21 PM
Fitz could explain it to Utee, but he couldn't make him understand it

;)
I did a summer engineering program at Northwestern.

Way overrated.
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Cincydawg

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Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
« Reply #116 on: October 01, 2019, 03:13:35 PM »
Imagine UNC got the conversion.  1:14 left, Clemson gets the KO at their 25.  What are the odds they kick a FG?

Four downs available immediately.  I don't know how many TOs.
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BrownCounty

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Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
« Reply #117 on: October 01, 2019, 03:40:11 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 01, 2019, 03:13:35 PM
Imagine UNC got the conversion.  1:14 left, Clemson gets the KO at their 25.  What are the odds they kick a FG?

Same scenario applies if UNC had kicked for the tie.
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FearlessF

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Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
« Reply #118 on: October 01, 2019, 06:03:28 PM »
that's the question:

odds of Clemson scoring with 1:14 left

Mack was going for the win

MAck obviously didn't like his odds in OT vs a superior team - Utee might like MAck's odds in OT, but MAck did not - fact
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utee94

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Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
« Reply #119 on: October 01, 2019, 06:20:11 PM »
And Mack didn't get the high-risk 2-point conversion and lost.

Fact.

Man, y'all keep making this too easy for me.
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CWSooner

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Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
« Reply #120 on: October 01, 2019, 06:59:18 PM »
A data sample of one does not prove the case.

Example: The Germans launched a sneak attack through the Ardennes Forest in Dec 1944.  While it gained some initial success--the Battle of the Bulge--it ultimately failed and Germany was in a worse situation afterward than before.

That does no mean sneak attacks always fail, or that the Germans should not have launched a sneak attack in that situation.

Obviously this example does not "validate" any ideas about sneak attacks per se succeeding or failing.

It's just one data point.

As was the UNC-Clemson finish Saturday.
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utee94

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Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
« Reply #121 on: October 01, 2019, 07:20:29 PM »
Doesn't always prove the case indeed.

But this one did.

Make the easy 1, and live to fight on.

Miss the high-risk 2, and you're done for sure.  Real simple.

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BrownCounty

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Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
« Reply #122 on: October 01, 2019, 08:04:53 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on October 01, 2019, 06:03:28 PM
MAck obviously didn't like his odds in OT vs a superior team

And this is another discussion we have had here before - but OT is a different game.  I hate it.  Mack didn't like his chances in this "soccer shootout" that they call college football OT.  Texas Tech would have a dozen NC trophies if that was football.

On this one, the NFL has it closer to being right, though still not perfect.  You gotta be willing to have a tie - any other resolution is not the same game.
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BrownCounty

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Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
« Reply #123 on: October 01, 2019, 08:06:34 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on October 01, 2019, 06:20:11 PM
And Mack didn't get the high-risk 2-point conversion and lost.

2-point conversions are not high risk.  They are actually somewhere between 50-60%.  Just not 95%, like the extra point.
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utee94

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Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
« Reply #124 on: October 01, 2019, 08:09:35 PM »
Right, 95%, the near sure-thing.

Y'all just keep proving my point for me, I don't even need to respond any more. :)
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CWSooner

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Re: North Carolina hires Mack Brown
« Reply #125 on: October 02, 2019, 12:50:55 AM »
When OU played Georgia in the Rose Bowl after the 2017 season, it went to OT.  In the 1st OT, OU held Georgia to a FG, then had the chance to win the game.  On 4th and 2 or 3 inside the 10, Lincoln Riley decided to kick the FG.  Even before we made the kick to tie and send it to OT, I was quite sure that that decision had sealed our fate--we were going to lose the game.  And we lost in the 2nd OT.  We couldn't even convert the "automatic" FG.

He should have gone for the 1st down to go on and score a TD.  The fact that the FG was the higher percentage play to execute, and that we made it, doesn't mean it was the right decision.  He effectively chose to put the game on the shoulders of his crappy defensive unit instead of his record-setting offense.  I will go to my grave--well, probably worrying about more important things than that football game--but I'll always believe that Lincoln made the wrong decision there.
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