~2017-18 Big Ten Basketball Thread~

[bayareabadger]

UW with another critical game tonight against Western Kentucky.

Western Kentucky beat Purdue so they are no slouch. We'll see what the kiddies are made of tonight.

Both teams shot real well, but UW holds on with a weird call. Lotta swings. This is gonna be a weird one this year. 

[ELA]

Both teams shot real well, but UW holds on with a weird call. Lotta swings. This is gonna be a weird one this year.

https://www.barstoolsports.com/barstoolu/we-witnessed-one-of-the-worst-calls-in-college-basketball-to-end-the-wisconsinwku-game/?_branch_match_id=402873909664798863

[Brutus Buckeye]

Unlike the 2007 Michigan FB team, OSU hoops defeated Appalachian State tonight. 

Some practical jokester yanked the fire alarm during the second half, creating quite a delay. 

[nuwildcat]

heartbreaking loss for Nebraska ..... oh so close

[medinabuckeye1]

I was quite busy this weekend but noticed some scores that I found interesting:

• Rutgers took out a ranked Seton Hall team
• Indiana took out a ranked ND team
• Nebraska nearly upset Kansas

I hope these are signs that things are improving!

[medinabuckeye1]

Still probably 2 weeks away from finalizing tiers, but looking at the composite rankings, MSU is #2 and Purdue is #6, then you drop all the way to Maryland at #35.
KenPom is pretty similar with MSU #2, Purdue #8, then down to Maryland at #37.  Maybe a blank 2nd tier, like we had a blank 5th tier above Rutgers a couple years ago?

• MSU, Purdue
• -
• Maryland, Minnesota, OSU, PSU, UM
• UW, NW
• ?
• ?

Then not sure how to put the bottom 5.  They all seem pretty similar.
Composite has: #84 Nebraska; #89 Illinois; #92 Rutgers; #108 Indiana; #129 Iowa
KenPom: #81 Iowa; #82 Indiana; #90 Nebraska; #98 Illinois; #106 Rutgers

I think those bottom five just got even harder to assess.  Iowa is already weird, best of the group in KenPom, worst in composite.  RU and IU were the next two worst in the composite but now suddenly have wins over ranked teams.  For now, I'd say all of them in one tier then see how it works out.  

[Entropy]

I was quite busy this weekend but noticed some scores that I found interesting:

• Rutgers took out a ranked Seton Hall team
• Indiana took out a ranked ND team
• Nebraska nearly upset Kansas

I hope these are signs that things are improving!

heartbreaking loss for Nebraska ..... oh so close

I still don't like the lack of movement without the ball by our coaches offense.... I think that is the reason UNL gets close, but it doesn't translate into continued good play or consistent play.  I'm not sold on UNL improving until they actually put together multiple games where they team performs well. 

[ELA]

I think those bottom five just got even harder to assess.  Iowa is already weird, best of the group in KenPom, worst in composite.  RU and IU were the next two worst in the composite but now suddenly have wins over ranked teams.  For now, I'd say all of them in one tier then see how it works out.  

Makes sense to me, then sort it out.  I don't think I'd PICK Wisconsin or Northwestern on the road over any of them right now, so that feels right.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Purdue for once is actually looking good at this time of year in RPI -- sitting at 15th. Usually the non-con SOS kills us, but this year has been a pretty solid OOC slate. Even the loss to WKU doesn't hurt us as much as they're currently sitting 71st in RPI, and Tennessee is 11th so that looks like a quality loss too.

#6 in KenPom, #3 in Sagarin, #2 in BPI. 

And despite the obligatory mention of losing Biggie--clockwork, like the TV announcers mentioning Isaac Haas' size 22 shoes--here's a very positive article about Purdue's team. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Projected standings half way through the B1G season (after the games on Thursday, January 25):

• 9-0 Purdue
• 8-0 Michigan State
• 7-3 Ohio State
• 6-4 Michigan
• 5-4 Penn State
• 5-4 Maryland
• 5-4 Northwestern
• 5-5 Minnesota
• 3-5 Wisconsin
• 3-6 Rutgers
• 3-7 Nebraska
• 2-7 Illinois
• 2-7 Indiana
• 1-8 Iowa

[ELA]

Good luck figuring out Indiana.  Beat ND, get run off the court by IPFW

[medinabuckeye1]

At least for now, the tiers are:

• MSU, Purdue
• blank
• tOSU, PSU, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota
• Northwestern, Wisconsin
• Nebraska, Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa

How this works:

• We project that teams will win all of their home games except those against teams at least two tiers above them.  
• Conversely, we project that teams will lose all of their road games except those against teams at least two tiers below them.  

Thus far there have been three upsets:

• Ohio State over Wisconsin in Madison (12/2)
• Wisconsin over Penn State in State College (12/4)
• Nebraska over Minnesota in Lincoln (12/5)

Here are the projections based on the current tiers:

Team	noAway	noAway	noAway	noAway	noHome	noHome	noHome	noHome	RR-W	RR-L	miss-W	miss-L	Proj-W	Proj-L	RR%	Proj%	Diff	+Var	-Var	Var	Conf-W	Conf-L
MSU	M	UNL	PSU	PU	IOWA	MN	NU	tOSU	25	1	7	1	18	0	0.962	1.000	0.038	0	0	0	18	-
Purdue	UNL	NU	tOSU	PSU	ILL	IU	IOWA	MSU	25	1	8	0	17	1	0.962	0.944	(0.017)	0	0	0	17	1
tOSU	MSU	UMD	UNL	ILL	UW	NU	MN	PU	16	10	5	3	11	7	0.615	0.611	(0.004)	1	0	1	12	6
PSU	M	MN	RU	UW	ILL	IU	MSU	PU	16	10	3	5	13	5	0.615	0.722	0.107	0	(1)	(1)	12	6
UMD	IOWA	MN	RU	UW	ILL	IU	UNL	tOSU	16	10	6	2	10	8	0.615	0.556	(0.060)	0	0	0	10	8
M	ILL	IU	MN	RU	MSU	UNL	PSU	UW	16	10	6	2	10	8	0.615	0.556	(0.060)	0	0	0	10	8
Minny	ILL	MSU	tOSU	RU	UMD	M	PSU	UW	16	10	6	2	10	8	0.615	0.556	(0.060)	0	(1)	(1)	9	9
NU	ILL	MSU	UNL	tOSU	IU	IOWA	PU	RU	11	15	3	5	8	10	0.423	0.444	0.021	0	0	0	8	10
UW	IU	M	MN	tOSU	IOWA	UMD	PSU	RU	11	15	4	4	7	11	0.423	0.389	(0.034)	1	(1)	0	7	11
UNL	IU	IOWA	UMD	M	MSU	NU	tOSU	PU	6	20	1	7	5	13	0.231	0.278	0.047	1	0	1	6	12
RU	IU	IOWA	NU	UW	UMD	M	MN	PSU	6	20	0	8	6	12	0.231	0.333	0.103	0	0	0	6	12
ILL	IOWA	UMD	PSU	PU	M	MN	NU	tOSU	6	20	1	7	5	13	0.231	0.278	0.047	0	0	0	5	13
IU	UMD	NU	PSU	PU	M	UNL	RU	UW	6	20	3	5	3	15	0.231	0.167	(0.064)	0	0	0	3	15
Iowa	MSU	NU	PU	UW	IL	UMD	UNL	RU	6	20	3	5	3	15	0.231	0.167	(0.064)	0	0	0	3	15

Explanation of columns:

• Team:  duh!
• noAway:  One of the four teams that the team in question does not visit this year.  
• noAway:  One of the four teams that the team in question does not visit this year.
• noAway:  One of the four teams that the team in question does not visit this year.
• noAway:  One of the four teams that the team in question does not visit this year.
• noHome:  One of the four teams that the team in question does not host this year.  
• noHome:  One of the four teams that the team in question does not host this year.
• noHome:  One of the four teams that the team in question does not host this year.
• noHome:  One of the four teams that the team in question does not host this year.
• RR-W:  Our projected number of wins that this team would accumulate if the B1G played a full 26-game double-round-robin.  
• RR-L:  Our projected number of losses that this team would accumulate if the B1G played a full 26-game double-round-robin.  
• miss-W:  Our projection of the number of wins that this team would get in the eight games not played (see 2-9)
• miss-L:  Our projection of the number of losses that this team would get in the eight games not played (see 2-9)
• Proj-W:  Our projection of wins for this team before accounting for upsets.  
• Proj-L:  Our projection of losses for this team before accounting for upsets.  
• RR%:  Our projection of the winning percentage for this team in a full 26-game double-round-robin.  
• Proj%:  Our projection of the winning percentage for this team in the existing 18-game schedule.  
• Diff:  The difference between 16 and 17, ie how much the schedule helps or (hurts).  
• +Var:  Number of positive upsets, ie wins in games that were projected to be losses.  
• -Var:  Number of negative upsets, ie losses in games that were projected to be wins.  
• Var:  Sum of 19 and 20, ie net upsets.  
• Conf-W:  Projected conference wins after accounting for games not played and upsets.  
• Conf-L:  Projected conference losses after accounting for games not played and upsets.  

Notes:

• I do not think anyone would actually predict that MSU will in fact go undefeated in the B1G.  We are using that as a projection not because we think it will happen, but because we do not feel that we should project MSU to lose any individual game (other than at Purdue which is not played this year).  
• A big part of #1 working itself out is that top-tier teams tend to get upset more often than lower-tier teams.  The reason is simple.  Consider the Spartans and the Hawkeyes.  The Spartans have 18 opportunities to be upset and ZERO opportunities to upset someone else.  The Hawkeyes have 15 opportunities to upset someone and only three opportunities to be upset.  Thus, it is likely that the Hawkeyes will do better in upsets than the Spartans simply because they have a lot more opportunities.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Based on the above projections the B1G Tournament seeds would be:

• 18-0 Michigan State
• 17-1 Purdue
• 12-6 Ohio State (wins tiebreaker over PSU based on record against Maryland and Michigan)
• 12-6 Penn State
• 10-8 Maryland (wins tiebreaker over M based on record against Minnesota)
• 10-8 Michigan
• 9-9 Minnesota
• 8-10 Northwestern
• 7-11 Wisconsin
• 6-12 Nebraska (wins tiebreaker over RU based on record against Minnesota)
• 6-12 Rutgers
• 5-13 Illinois
• 3-15 Iowa (wins tiebreaker over Indiana based on record against Wisconsin)
• 3-15 Indiana

The matchups in Madison Square Garden would be as follows:
Wednesday, February 28:

• #11 Rutgers vs #14 Indiana, 8pm on BTN
• #12 Illinois vs #13 Iowa, 5:30pm on BTN

Thursday, March 1:

• #5 Maryland vs ILL/Iowa, 2:30pm on BTN
• #6 Michigan vs RU/IU, 9pm on BTN
• #7 Minnesota vs #10 Nebraska, 6:30pm on BTN
• #8 Northwestern vs #9 Wisconsin, noon on BTN

Friday, March 2:

• #1 Michigan State vs NU/UW, noon on BTN
• #2 Purdue vs MN/UNL, 6:30pm on BTN
• #3 Ohio State vs M/RU/IU, 9pm on BTN
• #4 Penn State vs UMD/ILL/Iowa, 2:30pm on BTN

Saturday, March 3:

• MSU/NU/UW vs PSU/UMD/ILL/Iowa, 2pm on CBS
• PU/MN/UNL vs tOSU/M/RU/IU, 4:30pm on CBS

Sunday, March 4:

• MSU/NU/UW/PSU/UMD/ILL/Iowa vs PU/MN/UNL/tOSU/M/RU/IU, 4:30pm on CBS

[ELA]

Heh, at his current pace Jaren Jackson, even assuming he is a one and done, will finish the regular season 7th in MSU school history in blocked shots for a career.  With a decent tourney run in NYC and the NCAAs, he could get to 5th.