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Topic: Weather, Climate, and Environment

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utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #994 on: April 15, 2019, 08:20:45 AM »
I'm done buying cars that rattle after 3 months. My old Volvo with 345K miles on it had less rattles than my wife's new Tahoe back in the day. In fact, it only had one rattle period. Hers had God knows how many, and it didn't take long.



Rattling drives me bonkers. That's one thing I took from the old man. Of course, he was a Buick guy, so.. rattles.
i love my Tahoe so much I kept it even when I bought my new truck.  No rattles and the thing is bullet proof.  14 years old, nothing but standard maintenance.  The leather seats are cracking right where you'd expect, my i s c & a aggie wife insisted on those, personally I hate leather seats, especially in Texas summers.

MrNubbz

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #995 on: April 15, 2019, 08:31:59 AM »
Lmao. Great observation. You sound like that moron Bob Lutz.
You do realize that the Model 3 was the best selling car in the US in 2018 in terms of revenue and the #3 best selling car overall period, right?
Tesla is what stock market pundits call a “story stock.......we'll never put capital to work in a company that has only a good fundamental story.” But, in fact, there’s more than one story here, and there are several very different reasons to invest, or not invest, in the innovative automaker. Some boosters want to be part of Elon Musk’s bold mission to change the world, while others simply see a company with meteoric growth and fanatical brand loyalty. Some skeptics point to the unlikelihood of a small startup scaling the auto industry’s proverbially punishing barriers to entry, while others just can’t get past Musk’s unconventional personality and snarky tweets.“Right now, it’s selling for two times trailing revenues, so it’s valued at $45 billion vs. $20 billion in sales. Had Tesla remained private, it would have a much higher valuation.”

Count Kate Warne, an Investment Strategist at Edward Jones, among the skeptics, at least for now. “We don’t follow Tesla. But part of the reason is, their debt’s junk-rated. We wouldn’t look at it until it becomes an investment grade. In general with companies, we’d look at the credit rating before we even look at other characteristics. We’d rather be later and not have quite as high returns but wait until the cash flows are more stable and bondholders can be a little more comfortable. What we’ve seen with visionary leaders leading innovation, whether it’s Jeff Bezos or Steve Jobs or Elon Musk, is behavior that is really born out of the frustration associated with short-term thinking in the equity markets. And they just don’t understand how we can’t understand.”

FWIW consumer advocate Clark Howard told a caller he wouldn't recommend their stock right now.Who really knows but price of the vehicles would have to come way down for me to even test drive one
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #996 on: April 15, 2019, 10:56:58 AM »
I think anyone who discounts the competition coming in the EV market is missing a point.  Let's presume Audi et al. have a cost disadvantage.  (I presume since the Bolt's battery is basically on a part with that of the Tesla there is no battery density advantage.)  Let's presume the e-Tron is produced, which seems certain, and is competitive with Tesla whichever model on the merits.  Audi is going to sell them one way or the other even if they have to discount them and take a loss on each.  They can do that as long as they choose because they have profits from other vehicles.  So can Volvo, and GM, and Mercedes, etc.  Maybe they aren't as good, we won't know, but they will be sold.

There will be competition in the EV market that diminishes Tesla's prospects going forward.  That is one reason Tesla's stock price has been languishing.


bwarbiany

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #997 on: April 15, 2019, 12:42:46 PM »
Fundamentally, I think Tesla's problem is that while it has first mover advantage, it doesn't have enough capital to continue expansion and doesn't have enough of a technical moat over the competition to beat them out when companies who know how to make cars start getting into the game. 

This is a common problem in companies with first mover advantage in a market similar but adjacent to a larger market. 

I saw this years ago in enterprise SSDs. Companies like STEC and FusionIO were creating amazing products that were far beyond anything anyone else had, and they were creating market demand by supplying products that didn't have competition from the major storage vendors. They were flying high. But once the competition started catching up, they became acquisition targets by the big boys at far lower prices than they would have commanded at their peaks. 

They simply couldn't scale. They had technology, but not enough of a technology lead to remain freestanding companies. And because the biggest cost of enterprise SSDs is NAND, which neither company made, once the technology of other vendors caught up they had a pricing disadvantage. FusionIO was acquired by SanDisk [who is vertically integrated in NAND] and STEC was acquired by WDC*/HGST, a behemoth of the HDD industry which later acquired SanDisk to become vertically integrated in NAND.

I think Tesla has a similar problem. The behavior over the last quarter suggests that they're seriously cash-constrained. They hastily announced a Model Y hoping for a big influx of reservation cash like they had with the Model 3. It didn't materialize. They're laying off salespeople and closing retail locations. They're lowering prices [signaling a demand problem]. They're starting a lease program that appears to be a way to turn languishing inventory into immediate cash, but without a leasing partner to help shoulder the financial burden suggesting they're trying to get in hand cash now, also signaling a demand problem. Their bonds are slightly better than junk, so raising capital through bonds is hard, and they might be able to keep going if they try to issue a capital raise, but for some reason they have been unable or unwilling to do so.

Their cars appear to be pretty damn good. And the people who are pro-Tesla think that's enough for them to survive. Problem is that they're a company, and a company has to make money. And it doesn't appear they have a viable model to do so right now, so they're flailing around trying to save enough cash to keep the lights on.

Their technical moat is insufficient IMHO. Their only real technical advantage is battery-related, and it's unclear how much of that is Tesla and how much is Panasonic. Autopilot is nice, but I think the timeframe to actually get to autonomous / full self driving is far enough out that even if they had a lead and would be first to market, the survival of the company is a shorter term concern than what FSD can offer. 

Tesla is in trouble.

* Disclosure: I work for WDC, which acquired the companies who acquired STEC and FusionIO.

Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #998 on: April 15, 2019, 01:07:49 PM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/05/cadillac-super-cruise-autonomous-driving-review.html

I tested Cadillac’s new Super Cruise autonomous driving system in a brand new 2018 CT6, and I’m convinced it’s way better than anything else on the market, including Volvo’s Pilot Assist and, yes, even Tesla Autopilot.

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #999 on: April 15, 2019, 07:55:43 PM »
https://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/ct-met-will-county-dam-removal-petition-20190415-story.html


Citizens seek swift removal of Will County dam on DuPage River where couple recently drowned


A sign warns of the hazard at the dam on the DuPage River at the Hammel Woods Forest Preserve in Shorewood. A petition is circulating to seek removal of the dam, which was the scene of the drowning deaths of two people recently. (Antonio Perez/Chicago Tribune)


he recent drownings of a young couple in the DuPage River have prompted calls for Will County Forest Preserve officials to speed up the removal of a dam in Shorewood.
James Kennedy, of Shorewood, launched a petition April 3 on change.org after Hannah Tammeling, 22, of Plainfield, and Abraham Ramos, 28, of Palatine, drowned in the river near the dam at the Hammel Woods Forest Preserve. Their bodies were found April 1 about a half-mile from where witnesses had seen them struggling in the river near the dam the day before.


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CWSooner

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1000 on: April 15, 2019, 08:20:53 PM »
Is that river at normal level, Badge?

Low-water dams like that are just drownings waiting to happen.

We've got one on the Arkansas River about a mile south of downtown Tulsa, complete with all the expected warning signage.  And there are proposals to put in more, so that the "river" will effectively become a series of ponds held in by low-water dams.  The one we already have has claimed several victims over the years.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1001 on: April 15, 2019, 08:29:41 PM »
Yep, that was just a little above normal, whatever normal is these days. Dams are just dangerous on all levels. People see a "low head" dam like this and think they can manage it. Nope. Low head is a misnomer, in that it's only low head when it comes to gravity. There is much more to head than gravity, not to mention the risks of increased velocity and hydraulic jump.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1002 on: April 15, 2019, 08:48:39 PM »
I bought a new car in July and assume it'll be the last combustion-engine car I'll have.  While EVs may only be a tiny share of the market now, there will be a tipping point and that tipping point will occur seemingly suddenly.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1003 on: April 15, 2019, 08:56:26 PM »
I'm in negotiations on this now. I might couple it with a new SUV for Mrs. 847. It's all about the deal though. I don't need a new car. But, It might be my last one, and hers, so who knows.



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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1004 on: April 16, 2019, 07:38:52 AM »
I saw a lot of those in Massachusettes on our recent visit.  We walked a good bit along the Charles River.  These are mostly 150 year old structures obviously.  The look "quaint".

We saw a purpose built town in western MA along the Connecticut River that was quite interesting, had a nice lunch there.  I remain amazed how much construction could be done in 1868.  

The village of Turners Falls was founded in 1868 as a planned industrial community according to the plan of Alvah Crocker, a prominent man from Fitchburg who envisioned in the immense power of the waterfalls the means of establishing a great city. Crocker was influenced by other, earlier and successful experiments in Lowell and elsewhere. Crocker's vision was to attract industry to the town by offering cheap hydropower that was made by the harnessing of the Connecticut River, through the construction of a dam and canal. His development concept was to sell mill sites along the power canal to those companies and to sell individual building lots to mill workers who would come to work in the mills. The rest of the village was laid out in a horizontal grid pattern with cross streets numerically. Avenue A, the main commercial district, was designed as a grand tree lined avenue.[6]


847badgerfan

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1005 on: April 16, 2019, 08:00:20 AM »
Vehicle negotiations stalled last night, by the way. We'll see if he calls me back today. I suspect he will, but we'll see. I told him I don't need to do this, and I mean that. I'm cool with what we have, but I could see that changing when we move. We'll need a bigger SUV, I think?? I'm fine with my car. Sometimes I wonder if we would even need to have 2 vehicles. Maybe one and a golf cart or something. Those are electric, I think.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1006 on: April 16, 2019, 08:17:07 AM »
We moved to one car of course, and it works well for us because one of us can walk to just about anything we might need if the other is out with the car.

Then there is Uber/Lyft of course.

The future of autonomous vehicles - whenever that arrives - could mean fewer and fewer car owning households.  Imagine getting to work by scheduling a Uber at the same time each day and it drives you to work, and picks you up at night.  That could cost less than owning a vehicle.  The vehicle could easily be an EV, and probably will be.

I read somewhere that the demand for new electricity would grow by 8% if every car in the US were an EV, but I've since read other places that it is more like 25%.  That would be significant, even if it happens over a 15 year period or more.  

Our future could feature very few privately owned vehicles, probably mostly larger SUVs for vacations etc. and trucks.  Maybe this is what GM and Ford are seeing as well.

I'm not sure high speed rail is going to be needed, the US may simply bypass that development.

utee94

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Re: Weather, Climate, and Environment
« Reply #1007 on: April 16, 2019, 08:49:43 AM »
I suspect we'll always want one vehicle but I could certainly see alternative forms of transportation eliminating the need for a second.  Right now I telecommute 3-4 days per week anyway.  Covering the other 1-2 days with some combination of uber, light rail, and perhaps even city buses would be do-able.

When I was back in grad school, I took the bus from the suburbs down to campus every day and it worked really well-- gave me plenty of time to read and review cases, and even capture some of the written work I needed to do on the laptop.

 

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