I'm guessing Tesla is not close to the End, meaning, not in a year or more.
What happens when everyone comes out with new EVs is a question.
As mentioned, I've gotten sucked into Tesla-watch.
Tesla bulls will tell you that they exited Q1 with $2.2B in cash, and then executed a $2.3B [net proceeds] capital raise. So even if they continued the quarterly burn rate of Q1, they'd still be flush at least through 2019. Musk claimed that this capital raise wasn't really intended to be spent, and was there as a cushion.
Tesla bears will tell you that $2.2B Q1 number was completely goosed, that they'd been extending promised scheduled payments to suppliers, and that they were probably out of money when they raised capital in early May. Which--when you look at the cost and terms of that raise ($2.7B but only $2.3B net to Tesla) look like it was a desperation play and they were out of money.
I'm reading both sides and having trouble working out the truth. Tesla keeps dropping prices, utilizing their "demand levers" such as leasing and accelerating availability of the low-margin SR+ and SR models. At the same time they are continuing to guide to 90-100K deliveries in Q2, which would be nearly their all-time record and a huge boost from Q1.
Their problem is that they're still unable to be profitable on the lower-end models. But if they hit their delivery guidance, and their quarterly losses are relatively small, it will look like that capital raise has at least given them the runway to keep pushing. Because the volume on those lower-end models will at least help them amortize their fixed factory costs for now. Given that this would allow the growth story to continue [even if it's still a struggle], you'd see a hard and fast rebound in the stock back to its astronomic valuations.
If they have another weak sales quarter and they burn nearly another billion in cash like Q1, however, especially if it starts to smell like they continue to hold back payments to suppliers to goose cash-on-hand numbers, I could see some suppliers going to a COD model and demanding payment, and that would be a quick death spiral as early as Q3.
Which means big bets either way.