Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

hopefully, when everyone comes out with new EV's gasoline prices plummet and I can drive my 4x4 truck on the cheap!

I'm guessing Tesla is not close to the End, meaning, not in a year or more.

What happens when everyone comes out with new EVs is a question.

As mentioned, I've gotten sucked into Tesla-watch. 

Tesla bulls will tell you that they exited Q1 with $2.2B in cash, and then executed a $2.3B [net proceeds] capital raise. So even if they continued the quarterly burn rate of Q1, they'd still be flush at least through 2019. Musk claimed that this capital raise wasn't really intended to be spent, and was there as a cushion.

Tesla bears will tell you that $2.2B Q1 number was completely goosed, that they'd been extending promised scheduled payments to suppliers, and that they were probably out of money when they raised capital in early May. Which--when you look at the cost and terms of that raise ($2.7B but only $2.3B net to Tesla) look like it was a desperation play and they were out of money.

I'm reading both sides and having trouble working out the truth. Tesla keeps dropping prices, utilizing their "demand levers" such as leasing and accelerating availability of the low-margin SR+ and SR models. At the same time they are continuing to guide to 90-100K deliveries in Q2, which would be nearly their all-time record and a huge boost from Q1. 

Their problem is that they're still unable to be profitable on the lower-end models. But if they hit their delivery guidance, and their quarterly losses are relatively small, it will look like that capital raise has at least given them the runway to keep pushing. Because the volume on those lower-end models will at least help them amortize their fixed factory costs for now. Given that this would allow the growth story to continue [even if it's still a struggle], you'd see a hard and fast rebound in the stock back to its astronomic valuations.

If they have another weak sales quarter and they burn nearly another billion in cash like Q1, however, especially if it starts to smell like they continue to hold back payments to suppliers to goose cash-on-hand numbers, I could see some suppliers going to a COD model and demanding payment, and that would be a quick death spiral as early as Q3.

Which means big bets either way.

I saw one Tesla "expert" put a price target of $35 a share on the table (worst case) and another $7,000.  I doubt there is another stock with anything like that much range in "expert" predictions.  The options chain on TSLA must be fascinating, I have never looked, might.

In my experience, such draconian predictions often end in the mud and the stock in question just waffles around about where it is for a while.

It has fallen under $200, which is a large step off it's highs.

Truly an enigmatic stock... 

It's not valued anything like an automaker. It's valued like an astronomic growth tech stock. 

Which means that you can't give really determine what the stock price "should" be based on the fundamentals consistent with other automakers. Because if you did, the stock would drop like a stone. The market cap is way too high. 

You have to assume that Tesla is growing and will continue to grow into its market cap. If you believe that story, you'll support high prices. If you don't, you won't. 

Which means that the narrative drives its stock price. Which is why those Q2 delivery numbers are critical after the enormous failure of Q1. 

Iowa had between 10 to 20 tornadoes May 29, 2019. There were at least 10 spotted, and more radar indicated. Watching cable television the beep beep beep was repetitive all night. None close to us. The weather people are still analyzing #s. We are on the edge, not the center, of tornado alley. 

All were brief touchdowns. Probably no EF-3s or above. 

One night is just weather; but climate change, is here. The amount of flooding the past 26-years has been incredible in Iowa.

There won't be any today, but the record is now set for most rain in Chicago for any month of May. Been a crappy Spring here.

That's the logical approach. The climate is changing. Well, ya don't say?? 


It's always changed, and it always will.


<<drops mic>>