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Topic: Top 25

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Kris60

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Top 25
« on: November 04, 2019, 06:26:05 PM »
I always try to post my top 25 in advance of the CFP revealing their first top 25.  As always, it’s a really difficult exercise and there are some teams in places I don’t necessarily don’t feel great about but whatever.  Here’s mine.

1. LSU
2. Ohio St
3. Penn St
4. Clemson
5. Baylor
6. Bama
7. Oregon
8. Utah
9. UGA
10. Florida
11. Auburn
12. Oklahoma
13. Minnesota
14. Wisconsin
15. Michigan
16. ND
17. Iowa
18. Memphis
19. K State
20. Wake
21. Cincinnati 
22. Ok St
23. SMU
24. Navy
25. Texas A&M

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2019, 08:09:16 PM »
Baylor, huh?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Kris60

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2019, 08:17:00 PM »
Resume. I think several teams would beat them handily but right now they actually have 3 pretty solid wins and they are undefeated.  

I’ve always leaned more on I know than what I think.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2019, 08:45:25 PM »
It's hard to mesh eye test with resume evenly, if that's even a goal for someone.  There are sold and/or impressive wins, but there are also close wins vs weak teams.  There are close losses to strong teams, even multiple games like that and more blowouts vs cupcakes than is comfortable.



I'm not criticizing anything, no one should without posting their own rankings.  But for Baylor:
3 pretty solid wins
vs
close wins vs Rice, ISU, TxTech, WV



Back to the abstract - what's "better" - the 3 point win vs WV or the 3 point loss to an Oregon?  The goal is to win the game, but with all of the variables and lack of cross-section data means we have to value this stuff on the same plane.  Meh, I type all this and we all know it already.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Kris60

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2019, 08:56:39 PM »
It's hard to mesh eye test with resume evenly, if that's even a goal for someone.  There are sold and/or impressive wins, but there are also close wins vs weak teams.  There are close losses to strong teams, even multiple games like that and more blowouts vs cupcakes than is comfortable.



I'm not criticizing anything, no one should without posting their own rankings.  But for Baylor:
3 pretty solid wins
vs
close wins vs Rice, ISU, TxTech, WV



Back to the abstract - what's "better" - the 3 point win vs WV or the 3 point loss to an Oregon?  The goal is to win the game, but with all of the variables and lack of cross-section data means we have to value this stuff on the same plane.  Meh, I type all this and we all know it already.
Yeah, I don’t disagree with any of that. It is hard to mesh the two which is why ranking teams is hard.  If you put Baylor and Texas A&M on a neutral field I’d probably put my money on the Aggies but I can’t rank them that way and feel good about it.

I kinda figured Baylor would get some questions.  I’m ok with it.
 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2019, 09:06:18 PM »
I like computer rankings because they don't have to feel good about it, lol.  Many, many times, the .500 team is better than the 10-1 team and would beat them 6+ times in 10 games.  But resume cannot be ignored.  


The worst sin is being a slave to W-L record (cue my annual post about lazy voters).
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

CWSooner

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2019, 11:11:29 PM »
Richard Billingsley was one of the BCS computer rankers.  He still puts out his ratings in two forms: the way the BCS had it at the end, where the computer was not allowed to know the scores, only the W and the L; and where the computer does know the score.

These are his rankings for this week with the score known.


[th]Year[/th]
[th]WK[/th]
[th]RK[/th]
[th]Team[/th]
[th]W[/th]
[th]L[/th]
[th]Rating[/th]
2019101Ohio State80119.106
2019102LSU80115.256
2019103Clemson90115.139
2019104Penn State80111.956
2019105Alabama80111.454
2019106Auburn72109.830
2019107Oklahoma71109.290
2019108Oregon81109.227
2019109Utah81108.998
20191010Georgia71108.816
20191011Florida72108.716
20191012Michigan72108.671
20191013Notre Dame62104.624
20191014Iowa62104.148
20191015Washington54103.704
20191016Wisconsin62103.629
20191017Texas A&M63103.623
20191018Baylor80102.809
20191019Central Florida72102.681
20191020Southern Cal54102.547
20191021Cincinnati71102.539
20191022Minnesota80102.384
20191023Kansas State62102.161
20191024Texas53101.356
20191025Oklahoma State63100.783

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2019, 12:07:52 AM »
The BCS computer fiasco was what happens when ignorant people dabble in statistics.  The BCS folks took the computer poll people's best efforts and forced them to change in order to avoid hurt feelings (of running up the score).  Brutal stupidity.



I'm not a fan, however, of rankings that reward you for who you play more than the outcome of the game - a la moving up in the rankings because you lost to a good team.  I understand not punishing a team in that event but to reward them....nuh uh.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2019, 06:22:00 AM »
"We" devised our own computer poll here 7-8 years back.  We used the square root of points differential.

The thing is "we" kept tweaking it and tweaking it and eventually is basically reproduced the AP poll, or close to it.  I realized then you need some notion of perfection to develop a model, and we lacked one.

rolltidefan

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2019, 10:31:48 AM »
i'll take a stab at it

my version:

  • osu
  • lsu
  • bama
  • clemson
  • ou
  • psu
  • oregon
  • utah
  • uga
  • baylor
  • florida
  • auburn
  • wisconsin
  • minnesota
  • michigan
  • notre dame
  • iowa
  • cincinnati
  • memphis
  • kansas st
  • wake
  • smu
  • navy
  • mizzou
  • ok state




what i think cfp committee will do:

  • lsu
  • osu
  • bama
  • clemson
  • psu
  • baylor
  • ou
  • uga
  • oregon
  • utah

MikeDeTiger

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2019, 10:32:21 AM »
Why the square root of points differential?

FearlessF

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2019, 11:02:03 AM »
why not?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2019, 11:03:17 AM »
Why the square root of points differential?
It gives credit for it while limiting a huge impact of blow outs.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Top 25
« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2019, 11:14:02 AM »
Why the square root of points differential?
The BCS eliminated MoV for two reasons:
  • So as not to reward teams for piling points on hapless opponents, and
  • So as to prevent a team from compensating for a ridiculously weak schedule by blowing out their opponents

IMHO, the BCS's solution of completely eliminating MoV was a step too far.  MoV DOES matter.  However, I do agree with both of the motivations listed above so what I advocated was a modified MoV.  Here is how I would calculate MoV if I ran a computer poll:

I would take the sum of the point differential at halftime, the point differential at the end of the third quarter, and the final point differential and award that as the MoV to the winning team (and MoD or Margin of Defeat) to the losing team with the following caveats:
  • The point differential at each check (halftime, end of third quarter, and end of game) would be capped at 21
  • In any game in which the winning team has a negative MoV, they are awarded a 1 point MoV and the losing team gets a 1 point MoD
  • In any game that goes to OT, the winning team is awarded a 1 point MoV and the losing team gets a 1 point MoD

I think this takes what the committee has typically referred to as "Game Control" into account and I think that matters.  If you lead a team by at least three TD's at halftime, the end of the third quarter, and the end of the game, you dominated and you get a 63 point MoV but winning by more than that doesn't make it any better.  The maximum MoV/MoD is 63/-63. 

« Last Edit: November 07, 2019, 11:04:14 AM by medinabuckeye1 »

 

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