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Topic: Top 25
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bayareabadger · « **Reply #28 on:** November 06, 2019, 12:28:08 AM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 05, 2019, 11:01:42 PM

Baylor being ranked where they are is the only thing preventing this poll from being a slave to W-L record. String of undefeateds followed by a string of 1-loss teams.........ick.

I mean, Minnesota is buried. And the top five are by most any measure the top 5. Your two-loss teams worth a damn are UF, Auburn, Wisconsin and Michigan, none of which inspire me to argue they should jump anyone i particular.

Then again, I'm an SP+ guy, so by my preferred metric, I'd drop UF and Auburn further down.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #29 on:** November 06, 2019, 01:01:34 PM »

Until you get to Baylor, the rankings are similar to how a 5 year-old would do them. This isn't hyperbole or insult, it's the truth. Losing is bad, losing more is worse than losing less, etc. Zero context.

Now yes, if something is obvious, then it's known by adults and small kids, but I doubt any of us would describe ranking the best college football teams as obvious. Silly maybe, but not obvious.

When I see a column of zeroes, then a column of ones, then twos....(say it with me) it's either laziness or simply the voters leaning too far towards resume. What's "too far" you ask? Well it's anytime the teams are ranked by number of losses, of course!

Technically, the best teams could all be undefeated and the next-best teams could all have one loss, but I give that a sub-1% chance...some non-zero number well below 1%.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #30 on:** November 06, 2019, 02:10:50 PM »

Baylor and Minny will both have a great chance to move up in the polls, well, if they deserve it. None of us think they will finish 12-1 or 13-0.

I don't sweat these early rankings, they can be interesting, a bit, an insight as to how the committee is thinking. I personally would not have UGA that high, but whatever, it will sort itself out.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #31 on:** November 06, 2019, 10:02:05 PM »

A sentence in an article on CBSsports made me think to do this:

The SEC has 5 of the top 11 teams. They don't all play each other, but still, that's a tough road to hoe. So imagine a conference of similarly-ranked teams (using ESPN's FPI, because it ranks all the teams):

Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma, Oregon, Wisconsin, Washington, Texas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Indiana, SMU, UCLA, Temple, Ohio U

Would there be major complaints if 2 teams from the conference listed above got 2 teams in the playoff? Maybe without the SEC names, it's not as damning?

bayareabadger · « **Reply #32 on:** November 07, 2019, 09:52:08 AM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 06, 2019, 01:01:34 PM

Until you get to Baylor, the rankings are similar to how a 5 year-old would do them. This isn't hyperbole or insult, it's the truth. Losing is bad, losing more is worse than losing less, etc. Zero context.

Now yes, if something is obvious, then it's known by adults and small kids, but I doubt any of us would describe ranking the best college football teams as obvious. Silly maybe, but not obvious.

When I see a column of zeroes, then a column of ones, then twos....(say it with me) it's either laziness or simply the voters leaning too far towards resume. What's "too far" you ask? Well it's anytime the teams are ranked by number of losses, of course!

Technically, the best teams could all be undefeated and the next-best teams could all have one loss, but I give that a sub-1% chance...some non-zero number well below 1%.

So these's this interesting aspect of show-you-work-ism here. Basically, a list is bad if it strongly reflects listing norms, but you're not going to suggest where that order is wrong.

We'll start with the zero-loss teams. There's a zero behind four 1s and two 2s, and a zero behind four 1s and six 2s. So that's not conforming. The five undefeated that are smushing P5 schedules are generally liked by the stats as well as traditional stuff.

Then the issue with the 1-loss teams is they're pretty uninspiring. You have:
UGA which is workmanlike, best wins are good not great ND and UF teams. Lost to SC and had a dogfight with a QB-less UK team
Utah, another low ceiling squad with a decent loss and best wins of two 5-4 teams
Oregon, which has a good loss and the same 5-4 thing
Oklahoma, with one good win, a loss to lesser talented K-State, a so-so defense and a QB that is literally the poster child for benching your guy for someone better.

It's a cluster of fine. There's also a lost one-loss team behind seven two-loss teams.

Now you might say, there must be a good two-loss team to fill in. Here's the options
UF - Beat Auburn, competed with LSU, trailed SC going into the fourth quarter and kinda good not great all over
Auburn - A nice half team with one good win, one good loss and an uninspiring last week
Wisconsin with it loss to Ill, beatdown vs OSU one or so good wins
Michigan - Beat ND and been shaky in spots
ND - Best win is UVA and not much dominance
K-State - One good win, not a ton of dominance
Iowa - Best win is 5-3 Iowa State by a point. Next best is Purdue or Miami Ohio

Basically, you have very few one-loss teams and a mess of two-loss teams and none has a great case to be much higher than they are.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #33 on:** November 07, 2019, 11:09:54 AM »

Quote from: CWSooner on November 05, 2019, 08:36:48 PM

I'm confused by the bolded part.
It seems like the winning team would get rewarded more than if you just took the final point differential, whether it was a blowout or not.
Let's say Team A leads at halftime by 14, at the end of the 3rd quarter by 21, and at the end of the game by 28. You would take the sum of those and have a point differential of 63. And it would be impossible for the winning team to have a negative point differential.
Do you mean just the point differential for the 3rd quarter itself? And for the 4th quarter itself?

I did a terrible job of explaining this and forgot to type the most important caveat. I have now added it.

The caveat that I left out is that the point differential at each check (halftime, end of third quarter, end of game) is capped at 21 points such that the maximum possible MoV/MoD is 63/-63.

In your example:

Team A leads at halftime by 14
Team A leads at the end of the third quarter by 21, sum of 35
Team A wins by 28 but that is capped at 21, sum of 56.
Thus, Team A would be awarded a 56 point MoV and Team B would get a -56.

Here is how a team could win but have a negative MoV:

Team A leads 17-7 at halftime, 10 points.
Team A leads 17-14 at the end of the third quarter, 3 points, sum of 13.
Team B wins the game 21-17, a -4 for Team A, sum of 9.
Team A has a 9 point MoV but they LOST the game so they get a -1 and the winner, Team B gets a +1.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #34 on:** November 07, 2019, 11:12:59 AM »

It will all mostly shake out, and we'll still have arguments about 4-5-6 in the final tally, and maybe even 7. No G5 is going undefeated, so we don't have that issue.

OSU has some tough games remaining, PSU, UM, and the CG. If they lose to UM close, they probably get into the playoff. Bama plays at Auburn, never easy for them. If LSU beats Bama they are in good shape. PSU obviously has to beat OSU ( and vv). The Pac teams just need to win out and probably get in at 12-1 (either). If OU or Baylor win out, they are probably in. Clemson almost has to go 13-0 I think. Possible scenario:

Clemson 13-0
LSU 13-0
OSU 13-0
A gaggle at 12-1 and no real arbiter. Having three 13-0 doesn't happen often.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #35 on:** November 07, 2019, 11:15:49 AM »

I just don't think that Baylor and Minnesota are worth arguing over because they are coming up on some tough opposition. Once they play PSU and OU, we can figure out where to rank them. For now we are basically guessing.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #36 on:** November 07, 2019, 11:20:42 AM »

I don't think any of it is worth arguing over. The salient point to me is to divine how the committee "thinks".

Most teams in the running need to win out, a couple have a mulligan, Ohio State and Alabama/LSU winner can lose a game and get in if they win their conference, maybe PSU as well, maybe even Baylor/Minny. UGA has to win out to get in barring something weird (which can happen).

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #37 on:** November 07, 2019, 11:21:18 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 07, 2019, 11:12:59 AM

It will all mostly shake out, and we'll still have arguments about 4-5-6 in the final tally, and maybe even 7. No G5 is going undefeated, so we don't have that issue.

OSU has some tough games remaining, PSU, UM, and the CG. If they lose to UM close, they probably get into the playoff. Bama plays at Auburn, never easy for them. If LSU beats Bama they are in good shape. PSU obviously has to beat OSU ( and vv). The Pac teams just need to win out and probably get in at 12-1 (either). If OU or Baylor win out, they are probably in. Clemson almost has to go 13-0 I think. Possible scenario:

Clemson 13-0
LSU 13-0
OSU 13-0
A gaggle at 12-1 and no real arbiter. Having three 13-0 doesn't happen often.

In this scenario I don't think that you could have more than three P5 teams at 12-1:

Either Oregon or Utah could finish 12-1 as PAC Champion by winning out.
Oklahoma or Baylor could finish 12-1.
Minnesota could finish 12-1 (win out to B1GCG, lose to tOSU in Indy)
No ACC team could finish 12-1.
No SEC team could finish 12-1.

You could have a few 11-1 teams added into the mix:

11-1 Bama, lost to LSU
11-1 PSU, lost to tOSU (this necessarily eliminates Minnesota from the 12-1 teams)

Cincydawg · « **Reply #38 on:** November 07, 2019, 11:24:28 AM »

So, possibly five one loss teams to be considered for spot 4.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #39 on:** November 07, 2019, 03:05:16 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 07, 2019, 11:24:28 AM

So, possibly five one loss teams to be considered for spot 4.

That would certainly create an interesting argument but every year we get worked up about this type of scenario and usually it works itself out to where there are no more than 2-3 teams with a reasonable argument.

That said, this can be fun so here is your hypothetical:

13-0 ACC Champion Clemson, obviously in
13-0 SEC Champion LSU, obviously in
13-0 B1G Champion tOSU, obviously in

Leaving the following 1-loss teams with at least a somewhat reasonable argument:

12-1 B12 Champion Oklahoma
12-1 Pac Champion Utah or Oregon
11-1 Bama (lost to LSU)
EITHER 11-1 PSU (lost to tOSU in Columbus), OR
12-1 Minnesota (lost to tOSU in Indianapolis)

I'm not seeing five possible, only four because PSU/MN is an either/or situation not both.

The "Champions" proponents would obviously advocate for either Oklahoma or Utah/Oregon but the problem is that OU's, Utah's, and Oregon's losses are substantially worse than Bama's, PSU's, or MN's. That would be a tough one for the committee but I highly doubt it will work out that way.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #40 on:** November 07, 2019, 04:51:57 PM »

If either Minnesota or Baylor loses even once, they're out, no matter when/where/how that loss is. Fair or not, it's the truth.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #41 on:** November 07, 2019, 05:24:31 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 07, 2019, 04:51:57 PM

If either Minnesota or Baylor loses even once, they're out, no matter when/where/how that loss is. Fair or not, it's the truth.

I agree with the exception that either of them would at least be in the conversation at 12-1 WITH a conference title.

Suppose Baylor loses to Oklahoma in a few weeks then beats Oklahoma in the B12CG. They would be 12-1 and B12 Champion. Oklahoma would be 11-2 and out. They *MIGHT* sneak in at #4 particularly if neither Oregon nor Utah win out.

That said, you are probably right.

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Topic: Top 25

bayareabadger

Re: Top 25

OrangeAfroMan

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Cincydawg

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OrangeAfroMan

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bayareabadger

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medinabuckeye1

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Cincydawg

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medinabuckeye1

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Cincydawg

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medinabuckeye1

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Cincydawg

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medinabuckeye1

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OrangeAfroMan

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medinabuckeye1

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