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Topic: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
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medinabuckeye1 · « **on:** July 07, 2021, 12:17:46 PM »

Over in the tOSU offseason thread we had a discussion that touched on Purdue's odd knack for knocking off great Ohio State teams and that got me wondering which teams each B1G team has inexplicable struggles with. Here is a chart:

How to read the chart:
Each row shows that teams' % record against each B1G team from 2012-2019. For example, Ohio State is 1.000 against UW, 0.875 against PSU, 1.000 against Michigan, etc.

The chart is sorted such that the best teams are at the top and left while the worst teams are at the bottom and right.

Theoretically, each team should have their worst records against teams at the left (tOSU, UW, PSU, etc) and their best records against the teams at the right (RU, IL, PU, etc).

What oddities stand out?

Ohio State:

Purdue: From 2012-2019 the Buckeyes are perfect against seven B1G teams that have been better than Purdue but they aren't perfect against Purdue.

Wisconsin:

tOSU and PSU: Despite being the second best team in the league over the timeframe, the Badgers haven't beaten either #1 or #3.

Penn State:

The Michigan Schools, Nebraska, and Minnesota: Despite being the third best team in the league over the timeframe, the Nittany Lions have losing records against both Michigan Schools, Nebraska, and Minnesota.

Michigan:

Nebraska: The Wolverines are #4 over the timeframe but they have a losing record against #8.

Michigan State:

Northwestern, Nebraska, and Illinois: The Spartans have the #5 best record over the timeframe but they have losing records against #7, #8, and #13.

Iowa:

Wisconsin and Michigan State: Iowa hasn't been quite as good as Wisconsin over the timeframe but they haven't been THAT much worse and they've been nearly equal to MSU.

Northwestern:

Michigan: The Wildcats are pretty good against #2-#6 except that they are 0-5 against the #4 Wolverines.

Nebraska:

Minnesota, Indiana, and Purdue: The Cornhuskers' record is just weird. They have winning records against #3 PSU, #4 M, #5 MSU, and #7 NU but they are only .500 against #9 MN and #10 IU and they are barely over .500 against #12 PU.

Minnesota:

Iowa: The Gophers have been only slightly worse than Iowa over the timeframe but they are an abysmal 1-7 against the Hawkeyes.

Indiana:

Minnesota: The Hoosiers shouldn't be winless against the Gophers.
NOTE ON INDIANA: The Hoosiers' weak record is a product of playing in a tough division. From 2012-2019 they went 0-8 against tOSU, 0-7 against M, 1-7 against PSU, and 1-7 against MSU. They were a respectable 4-2 each against the other two teams in the division (UMD and RU) but two combined wins over tOSU, M, PSU, and MSU crushed their overall record.

Maryland:

Schools that start with the letter N: The Terps have at least one win each against #3 PSU, #4 M, #5 MSU, and #6 IA but they are 0-fer against #7 NU and #8 UNL.

Purdue:

All decent programs not named tOSU or Iowa: The Boilermakers are a very good 1-2 against the #1 Buckeyes and a respectable 3-5 against the #6 Hawkeyes but they are a dismal 1-23 combined against #2 Badgers, the #3 Nittany Lions, the #4 Wolverines, the #5 Spartans, and the #7 Wildcats.

Illinois:

Michigan State (in reverse): The Illini are and impressive 2-1 against the #5 Spartans and they have a winning record against the #14 Scarlet Knights but they struggle against everybody else which explains their .206 overall record.

Rutgers:

Michigan (in reverse): The Scarlet Knights have been abysmal so far in the B1G. Their win against #4 Michigan stands out because they are a combined 0-29 against the rest of the top-9 programs.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #1 on:** July 08, 2021, 06:57:16 AM »

Interesting stuff.

NU has always been a thorn in UW's side too.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #2 on:** July 08, 2021, 08:01:41 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2021, 06:57:16 AM

Interesting stuff.

NU has always been a thorn in UW's side too.

I was gonna say, the OSU thing is surprising about volume, but not much else. They have four total conference losses in that run (maybe one more in a title game?).

The PSU one is also interesting. They’ve played four times. PSU got the two worst UW teams in the run, and the Badgers lost a game I’m still sore about to either the best PSU team in the run or close to it. The 2013 game still stings, though it had little long term effect.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #3 on:** July 08, 2021, 08:07:48 AM »

Quote from: bayareabadger on July 08, 2021, 08:01:41 AM

I was gonna say, the OSU thing is surprising about volume, but not much else. They have four total conference losses in that run (maybe one more in a title game?).

The PSU one is also interesting. They’ve played four times. PSU got the two worst UW teams in the run, and the Badgers lost a game I’m still sore about to either the best PSU team in the run or close to it. The 2013 game still stings, though it had little long term effect.

Me too. I witnessed it first hand.

FearlessF · « **Reply #4 on:** July 08, 2021, 09:56:13 AM »

not sure how or why but it seems to me that the Huskers have given Sparty trouble

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #5 on:** July 08, 2021, 10:03:02 AM »

There's a degree to which I hear that UW has had trouble with OSU and PSU and think to myself "well, no S, Sherlock, those are two great teams!"

It's the outliers that are interesting. OSU having trouble with Purdue is interesting, because that's not supposed to happen. PSU having trouble with UNL and MN is interesting. M having trouble with UNL is likewise interesting. Nebraska themselves are weird because they oddly beat the teams they shouldn't too often, and lose to the teams they shouldn't too often. Indiana shouldn't be winless against Minnesota. Purdue, for as bad as they've been, shouldn't be 0.000 against Rutgers.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #6 on:** July 08, 2021, 10:36:09 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2021, 06:57:16 AM

Interesting stuff.

NU has always been a thorn in UW's side too.

Over the timeframe that I used (2012-2019) the Badgers are 4-3 (.571) against the Wildcats:

2019: Wisconsin went 10-4 and beat NU who went 3-9
2018: Wisconsin went 8-5 and lost to NU who went 9-5
2017: Wisconsin went 13-1 and beat NU who went 10-3
2016: Wisconsin went 11-3 and beat NU who went 7-6
2015: Wisconsin went 10-3 and lost to NU who went 10-3
2014: Wisconsin went 8-5 and lost to NU who went 5-7
2013: Wisconsin went 9-4 and beat NU who went 5-7

One of the losses (2014) was to a clearly inferior team.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #7 on:** July 08, 2021, 11:07:13 AM »

Quote from: bayareabadger on July 08, 2021, 08:01:41 AM

I was gonna say, the OSU thing is surprising about volume, but not much else. They have four total conference losses in that run (maybe one more in a title game?).

The Buckeyes' losses to B1G teams from 2012-2019 are:

49-20 at Purdue in 2018: Purdue was a mediocre team that finished 6-7.
55-24 at Iowa in 2017: Iowa was a mediocre team that finished 8-5.
24-21 at Penn State in 2016: Penn State was good (finished 11-3 losing to Pitt, M, and USC)
17-14 vs Michigan State in 2015: Michigan State was good (finished 12-2 losing to UNL and Bama in the CFP).
34-24 to Michigan State in the 2013 B1GCG: Michigan State was very good (finished 13-1 only losing to ND).

The two odd losses are the two most recent. Neither PU in 2018 nor IA in 2017 were anywhere near as good as the tOSU teams that they not only defeated but beat by 29 and 31 points. The other three were close losses to good teams.

Ohio State went 7-0 against Wisconsin from 2012-2019. It is true that Ohio State was REALLY good over that stretch but it isn't like Wisconsin was chopped liver. They were the second best B1G team. It feels like they at least should have been able to pull off an upset or two. They did get close a few times:

34-21 2019 B1GCG: Wisconsin led 21-7 at the half and entered the fourth quarter within a FG (24-21).
38-7 2019 in Columbus: This game was closer than the final score makes it appear. Wisconsin was within a FG (10-7) until about half way through the third quarter then the floodgates opened and the Buckeyes closed out the game on a 28-0 run.
27-21 2017 B1GCG: Wisconsin never led but they were within a FG in the final quarter and only lost by six.
30-23 2016 in Madison: Wisconsin led nearly the entire game and outgained Ohio State (450-411) and this game went to OT. In OT the Buckeyes scored followed by Wisconsin getting a first and goal at the four but they couldn't convert (no gain in 1st down, incomplete pass on 2nd down, no gain on 3rd down, sack on 4th down).
59-0 2014 B1GCG: Not close. I remember watching this one with my dad. Going in we were very worried and we were absolutely amazed at tOSU's domination. The Buckeyes outgained the Badgers by 300 yards (558-258) by holding UW to an anemic 1.9 yards per rush while also holding Stave to 17/43 for just 187 yards.
31-24 2013 in Columbus: This one actually wasn't as close as the final score. The Buckeyes led 31-14 heading into the final quarter and Wisconsin scored the last 10 points to make it look good.
21-14 2012 in Madison: Another OT game. Wisconsin outgained tOSU 360-236 and went to OT at 14-14. In OT the Buckeyes scored first then UW got the ball and didn't manage a first down (six yard rush on 1st and 10, incomplete pass on 2nd and 4, two yard loss on 3rd and 4, incomplete pass on 4th and 4).

Wisconsin has been competitive with two OT games and several others that were competitive into the second half, they just haven't managed to come out on top. I find that surprising simply because the Badgers were the second best B1G team over the timeframe.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #8 on:** July 08, 2021, 11:12:23 AM »

Quote from: bayareabadger on July 08, 2021, 08:01:41 AM

The PSU one is also interesting. They’ve played four times. PSU got the two worst UW teams in the run, and the Badgers lost a game I’m still sore about to either the best PSU team in the run or close to it. The 2013 game still stings, though it had little long term effect.

The PSU/UW series is interesting. From 2012-2019 PSU is 4-0 but all four games were competitive with the Nittany Lions winning by 3, 7, 7, and 12 points. Oddly the three games prior to that were:

45-7 UW win in 2011
48-7 PSU win in 2008
38-7 PSU win in 2007

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #9 on:** July 08, 2021, 11:21:40 AM »

Quote from: FearlessF on July 08, 2021, 09:56:13 AM

not sure how or why but it seems to me that the Huskers have given Sparty trouble

They certainly have. Prior to joining the B1G the Huskers were 5-0 against MSU with wins:

1914 in Lincoln
1920 in Lincoln
1995 in East Lansing
1996 in Lincoln
2003 in the Alamo Bowl

Those wins aren't surprising since they coincide with generally good times for UNL and bad times for MSU but since joining the league the Huskers are 4-2 against the Spartans despite not doing as well overall as the Spartans. The six league games are:

9-6 Nebraska win in Lincoln in 2018: MSU finished 7-6 and UNL finished 4-8 so this result is surprising.
39-38 Nebraska win in Lincoln in 2015: MSU finished 12-2 and UNL finished 6-7 so this result is surprising.
27-22 MSU win in East Lansing in 2014: MSU finished 11-2, UNL finished 9-4.
41-28 MSU win in Lincoln in 2013: MSU finished 13-1, UNL finished 9-4.
28-24 Nebraska win in East Lansing in 2012: MSU finished 7-6, UNL finished 10-4.
24-3 Nebraska win in Lincoln in 2011: MSU finished 11-3 and UNL finished 9-4 so this result is surprising.

It is odd because three of UNL's four league wins were upsets.

FearlessF · « **Reply #10 on:** July 08, 2021, 11:30:03 AM »

all but 2 were tight games that could have gone either way

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #11 on:** July 08, 2021, 11:31:15 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 08, 2021, 11:07:13 AM

Wisconsin has been competitive with two OT games and several others that were competitive into the second half, they just haven't managed to come out on top. I find that surprising simply because the Badgers were the second best B1G team over the timeframe.

I honestly don't find it surprising at all, in the sense that ending up "close but no cigar" several times is just statistical chance. If Wisconsin had gone 2-2 or 1-3 in those closer and/or OT games I wouldn't be surprised, but I'm not particularly surprised by 0-4 -- especially against a better team. It's only if they had gone 3-1 or 4-0 that I would have been surprised, but if they had done that we might not be talking about OSU in such rarified reverence.

I also quibble with the statement that the Badgers were the second best B1G team over the timeframe... Not because it's inaccurate. It's completely accurate, but it's not informative. The gulf in talent and results between "best" and "second best" was a chasm FAR larger than the difference between the Badgers at 2nd and probably 5th over that span.

If you put LeBron James on a team full of high school basketball players, does it matter who the 2nd best player on the team is?

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #12 on:** July 08, 2021, 11:32:43 AM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 10:03:02 AM

There's a degree to which I hear that UW has had trouble with OSU and PSU and think to myself "well, no S, Sherlock, those are two great teams!"

I get it and I agree when looking at a team in the middle or near the bottom of the standings. Of course they've struggled against tOSU and PSU because tOSU and PSU have been much better than them.

I feel different because we aren't talking about a team near the middle or bottom of the standings, we are talking about Wisconsin! Over the timeframe, the Badgers were BETTER than PSU and second only to tOSU.

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 10:03:02 AM

It's the outliers that are interesting. OSU having trouble with Purdue is interesting, because that's not supposed to happen. PSU having trouble with UNL and MN is interesting. M having trouble with UNL is likewise interesting. Nebraska themselves are weird because they oddly beat the teams they shouldn't too often, and lose to the teams they shouldn't too often. Indiana shouldn't be winless against Minnesota. Purdue, for as bad as they've been, shouldn't be 0.000 against Rutgers.

Agreed. These are the ones that make me wonder why. Is there something about Purdue that makes them unusually likely to pull off a spectacular upset? Is there something about UNL and MN that matches up well with PSU?

Finally, Purdue's 0-fer against RU is probably just due to a lack of chances. They only played once in the timeframe and as far as I know they have only played once ever, a 14-12 Rutgers win in New Jersey in 2017.

Purdue, of course, plays less games against the non-IU B1G-E teams because one of their three annual cross-overs is fixed as against the Hoosiers. Also, in that 2017 loss to Rutgers the Boilermakers outgained the Scarlet Knights 474-217 but they lost the turnover battle 2-0 and their three scores were two FG's and a TD (failed 2pt) while Rutgers' two scores were both TD's. It happens.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #13 on:** July 08, 2021, 11:39:03 AM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 11:31:15 AM

I honestly don't find it surprising at all, in the sense that ending up "close but no cigar" several times is just statistical chance. If Wisconsin had gone 2-2 or 1-3 in those closer and/or OT games I wouldn't be surprised, but I'm not particularly surprised by 0-4 -- especially against a better team. It's only if they had gone 3-1 or 4-0 that I would have been surprised, but if they had done that we might not be talking about OSU in such rarified reverence.

Agreed on all points including the "if they had gone 4-0 . . ."

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 11:31:15 AM

I also quibble with the statement that the Badgers were the second best B1G team over the timeframe... Not because it's inaccurate. It's completely accurate, but it's not informative. The gulf in talent and results between "best" and "second best" was a chasm FAR larger than the difference between the Badgers at 2nd and probably 5th over that span.

If you put LeBron James on a team full of high school basketball players, does it matter who the 2nd best player on the team is?

Fair point. Here are the overall records for 2012-2019:

Wisconsin was 16 games behind tOSU. 16 games behind Wisconsin would be 36-37 or just under .500 so despite being "second best" they were closer to #3 PSU, #4 M, #5 MSU, #6 IA, #7 NU, and #8 UNL so it is actually much worse than your guess of 5th. Wisconsin was closer to #8 than they were to #1.

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Topic: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should

medinabuckeye1

Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should

847badgerfan

Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should

bayareabadger

Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should

847badgerfan

Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should

FearlessF

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betarhoalphadelta

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medinabuckeye1

Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should

medinabuckeye1

Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should

medinabuckeye1

Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should

medinabuckeye1

Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should

FearlessF

Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should

betarhoalphadelta

Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should

medinabuckeye1

Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should

medinabuckeye1

Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should