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Topic: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
« Reply #14 on: July 08, 2021, 11:40:18 AM »
I feel different because we aren't talking about a team near the middle or bottom of the standings, we are talking about Wisconsin!  Over the timeframe, the Badgers were BETTER than PSU and second only to tOSU. 
The Badgers' record is a little inflated IMHO due to playing in the West. Are we sure the Badgers were better than PSU, or did they just play an easier schedule?

Regarding Purdue and Rutgers, there were definitely few chances. I guess I was thinking it was more than one because Purdue also lost to Rutgers in 2020 as well, but didn't realize you stopped the series at 2019 (which makes sense of course due to the uniqueness of 2020)...

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
« Reply #15 on: July 08, 2021, 03:11:22 PM »
The Badgers' record is a little inflated IMHO due to playing in the West. Are we sure the Badgers were better than PSU, or did they just play an easier schedule?
That is debatable, it is close:
Against tOSU:
  • PSU was better but not by much, 1-7 vs 0-7
Against each other:
  • PSU was better, 4-0
Against Michigan:
  • UW was better, 2-2 vs 3-4
Against MSU:
  • UW was better, 2-1 vs 2-4
Against Iowa:
  • PSU was better, 5-0 vs 6-1
Against Northwestern:
  • UW was better, 4-3 vs 2-2
Against Nebraska:
  • UW was better, 7-1 vs 1-2
Against Minnesota:
  • UW was better, 7-1 vs 1-2
Against Indiana:
  • UW was better, 3-0 vs 7-1
Against Maryland:
  • UW was better, 3-0 vs 7-1
Against Purdue:
  • Tied, 8-0 for UNL, 4-0 for PSU
Against Illinois:
  • UW was better, 7-1 vs 4-1
Against Rutgers:
  • Tied, 3-0 for UW, 6-0 for PSU

Total:
  • Two ties (RU and PU)
  • Wisconsin better against eight (M, MSU, NU, UNL, MN, IU, UMD, IL)
  • PSU better against three (tOSU, each other, Iowa)

On the surface that strongly favors Wisconsin but IMHO, the records against relative equals (#1 tOSU, each other, #4 M, #5 MSU and #6 IA) are more relevant than the records against significantly inferior teams (everybody else).  It is close enough that you can make a creditable argument either way.  


medinabuckeye1

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Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
« Reply #16 on: July 08, 2021, 03:19:22 PM »
The Badgers' record is a little inflated IMHO due to playing in the West. Are we sure the Badgers were better than PSU, or did they just play an easier schedule?
On the question of B1G-E vs B1G-W in general it is a bit of a mixed bag.  If you compare 1v1, 2v2, etc here is what I get:
  • East better by 16 games:  tOSU is 68-5 while UW is 52-21
  • East better by 5 games:  PSU is 45-24 while IA is 40-29
  • East better by 8.5 games:  M is 44-24 while NU is 36-33
  • East better by 8.5 games:  MSU is 44-26 while UNL is 35-34
  • West better by 9 games:  MN is 30-38 while IU is 21-47
  • East slightly better:  Hard to compare because UMD was in for less years.  UMD is .269 while PU is .265
  • West SIGNIFICANTLY better:  Hard to compare because RU was in for less years.  IL is .206 while RU is .135

My take is that the bottom of the West is MUCH better than the bottom of the east.  Illinois is a LOT better than Rutgers, Purdue and Maryland are basically a wash, and Minnesota is better than Indiana.  However, the top of the East is MUCH better than the top of the West but that is mostly just because of tOSU.  


Cincydawg

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Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
« Reply #17 on: July 08, 2021, 03:22:57 PM »
I think this basic notion is true in the SEC as well, which suggests to me we could be looking at small sample size random numbers instead of real trends.


medinabuckeye1

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Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
« Reply #18 on: July 08, 2021, 04:09:28 PM »
I think this basic notion is true in the SEC as well, which suggests to me we could be looking at small sample size random numbers instead of real trends.
You are right, most of this is a product of small sample sizes.  

The example that kicked off this discussion was Purdue vs tOSU.  From 2012-2019 the Boilermakers were .333 against the Buckeyes which is a LOT better than one would expect considering that the Boilermakers were just .265 in all B1G games.  Ie, the Boilermakers did BETTER against tOSU than they did against the average B1G team which is downright shocking considering that the Buckeyes were .932 in B1G games and far-and-away the best team in the B1G.  The Boilermakers did better against Ohio State than they did against:
  • UW .000, 0-8
  • PSU .000, 0-4
  • M .000, 0-2
  • MSU .000, 0-4
  • NU .167, 1-5
  • MN .143, 1-6
  • RU .000, 0-1

All of that said, PU's .333 against tOSU was one win in three games (1-2) so we are effectively talking about a sample size of one.  Their one upset of the Buckeyes is the oddity.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
« Reply #19 on: July 08, 2021, 05:28:54 PM »
All of that said, PU's .333 against tOSU was one win in three games (1-2) so we are effectively talking about a sample size of one.  Their one upset of the Buckeyes is the oddity. 
I would venture to say that it was your decision to go by the 2012-2019 time frame.

Purdue's success against OSU is much longer, with wins in 2000, 2004, 2009, 2011 (Fickell mulligan for OSU there) and 2018. That's 5 wins in 13 tries, for 0.384 win percentage.

Purdue was a pretty respectable team up until 2008, but in no world has Purdue had anywhere near the recruiting or general success to be that good against OSU. Purdue beat Tressel twice and Urban once, and had two other VERY close games against Tressel back in the Tiller era. 

Along the same lines, Purdue hasn't beaten Wisconsin since 2003, so that makes Purdue 0 of the last 14 against Wisconsin. VERY few of those games have even been anywhere near close. 


medinabuckeye1

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Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
« Reply #20 on: July 08, 2021, 05:54:14 PM »
I would venture to say that it was your decision to go by the 2012-2019 time frame.

Purdue's success against OSU is much longer, with wins in 2000, 2004, 2009, 2011 (Fickell mulligan for OSU there) and 2018. That's 5 wins in 13 tries, for 0.384 win percentage.

Purdue was a pretty respectable team up until 2008, but in no world has Purdue had anywhere near the recruiting or general success to be that good against OSU. Purdue beat Tressel twice and Urban once, and had two other VERY close games against Tressel back in the Tiller era.

Along the same lines, Purdue hasn't beaten Wisconsin since 2003, so that makes Purdue 0 of the last 14 against Wisconsin. VERY few of those games have even been anywhere near close.
Purdue's record against B1G opponents from 2000-2019:
  • .647, 11-6 vs Illinois
  • .600, 12-8 vs Indiana
  • .471, 8-9 vs Minnesota
  • .471, 8-9 vs Northwestern
  • .429, 3-4 vs Nebraska
  • .385, 5-8 vs Ohio State
  • .353, 6-11 vs Iowa
  • .333, 1-2 vs Maryland
  • .308, 4-9 vs Michigan State - the four wins were in four consecutive games between 2001-2006 followed by an 8 game losing streak
  • .250, 3-9 vs Michigan - 
  • .167, 2-10 vs Penn State - the two wins were in 2003 and 2004 followed by a 9 game losing streak.  
  • .125, 2-14 vs Wisconsin - the two wins were 2000 and 2003 followed by a 14 game losing streak.  
  • .000, 0-1 vs Rutgers

This list generally reads from the worst B1G teams at the top to the best at the bottom with two major exceptions:
  • Rutgers is easily the worst B1G team so they should be near the top but instead they are last.  This is mostly due to PU only playing them once between 2000 and 2019.  
  • Ohio State is easily the best B1G team so they should be near the bottom but instead they are in the middle.  One would expect Purdue's record against Ohio State to be worse than or at least similar to their record against the other high-end B1G teams such as UW and PSU.  Statistically, their record in 13 games against Ohio State should be roughly 0-13, 1-12, or 2-11 (worse or similar to their records against UW and PSU).  So basically we are talking about a difference of 3-5 games.  It is still a relatively small sample and the 49-20 blowout is an outlier with the other four wins being by 3, 4, 7, and 8 points.  Meanwhile, Ohio State's eight wins were by 56, 49, 24, 16, 13, 7, 4, and 3 points.  So Purdue is 4-3 in one-score games and 1-5 in games decided by more than eight points.  


Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
« Reply #21 on: July 08, 2021, 09:35:19 PM »
OSU's Achilles heel has always been the bubble screens, and Purdue runs nothing but. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

Hawkinole

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Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
« Reply #22 on: July 09, 2021, 01:48:51 AM »
Will www.stassen.com and James Howell, no longer update their websites? They have not posted 2020 results. I enjoy viewing series records. I guess I am getting old. I am morphing into Lee Corso.

Cincydawg

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Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
« Reply #23 on: July 09, 2021, 08:30:29 AM »
Yeah, over a long period, Purdue has more success against OSU than anyone would suspect beforehand, that probably is not a fluke.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
« Reply #24 on: July 09, 2021, 09:31:47 AM »
Will www.stassen.com and James Howell, no longer update their websites? They have not posted 2020 results. I enjoy viewing series records. I guess I am getting old. I am morphing into Lee Corso.
I have been wondering the same thing.  The 2020 games are actually in the system but they aren't in the database (if that makes sense).  

Example, tOSU vs IU:
If you go to the head-to-head records tab and select:
  • Years: 1869 - 2020
  • First Team:  Indiana
  • Second Team:  Ohio State

The results displayed state that Indiana is 12-76-5 all time against Ohio State with the first game in 1901 and the last game in 2019 made up of:
  • 2-28-1 in 31 games at home
  • 10-48-4 in 62 games in Columbus

That is wrong because the Buckeyes and Hoosiers played in Columbus in 2020 (tOSU won 42-35).  

Here is the weird part:
Under the totals listed above it displays each game by year along with Ohio State's record that year (Indiana's record if you switch first/second teams above).  If you click on Ohio State next to the 2019 it pulls up Ohio State's seasons and if you scroll up you can see their 2020 season.  All eight 2020 games are entered:
  • Five regular season B1G wins (UNL, PSU, RU, IU, MSU)
  • B1GCG win (22-10 over NU)
  • CFP semi-final win (49-28 over Clemson)
  • CFP CG loss (52-24 to Bama)
So somebody updated the system with the games but 2020 isn't included in the database so Ohio State's all-time record against each of those eight teams is off by one game if you just look it up from the head-to-head records tab.  

It seems like the time consuming part (entering the game results) has already been done so hopefully they'll fix the database soon!


Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
« Reply #25 on: July 09, 2021, 10:36:49 AM »
Danny Hope (2009-12) was the one that really magnifies the Purdue-OSU factor. They played each other all four years that Hope coached the Boilers. He had two wins and a close loss (7pts) vs only one blowout loss (vacated). But he didn't do very well against the rest of the league, being shown the door after just 4 years. He had Hoke syndrome, where he could really get his guys up for OSU but struggled otherwise. 

Now you take that out of there, and Purdue is still no slouch against OSU, 3-6 with each of the three wins at the expense of a different OSU HoF HC; John Cooper (2000), Jim Tressel (2004) and Urban Meyer (2018). So it wasn't ALL Hope. But a lot if it was Hope. The Tiller ones in 2000 and 04 are not all that alarming, Purdue won the Big Ten in 2000 with Drew Brees for example, while John Cooper was putting together a season that would get himself fired. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

Cincydawg

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Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
« Reply #26 on: July 09, 2021, 11:37:51 AM »
OSU's Achilles heel has always been the bubble screens, and Purdue runs nothing but.
Sounds like OSU should avoid playing The Pirate's  teams.  Not really bubble screens mostly but quick short passes that drive defenses crazy.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
« Reply #27 on: July 11, 2021, 11:17:36 AM »
I would venture to say that it was your decision to go by the 2012-2019 time frame.

Purdue's success against OSU is much longer, with wins in 2000, 2004, 2009, 2011 (Fickell mulligan for OSU there) and 2018. That's 5 wins in 13 tries, for 0.384 win percentage.
The Purdue/Ohio State series generally:

It is a little odd.  Ohio State joined the league in 1913 and Purdue, of course, was a charter member so the two schools have been in the same conference for well over 100 years but they have only played 57 times:
  • They didn't play at all before tOSU joined the league and they didn't play in tOSU's first six years in the league (1913-1918).  
  • Ohio State won the first six meetings but they played so infrequently that it took nearly 20 years from 1919 to 1937.  
  • In the 54 years between tOSU joining the league and 1966 they only played 21 times (16 in Columbus, 4 in West Lafayette, 1 in Cleveland, Ohio State led 13-6-2.  That is only barely over one game every three years.  
  • In the 54 years from 1967-2020 they played 36 times (average of twice every three years) with a balance of 18 in Columbus and 18 in West Lafayette (Ohio State led 27-9).  

Purdue's run of upsets didn't really start until this century.  From 1967-1999 The Buckeyes went 19-4 (.826) against the Boilermakers which is about what you would expect given how the two teams performed generally over that stretch.  

From 2000 through the present the Boilermakers are 5-8 against the Buckeyes (.385) that is unusually good considering how much better the Buckeyes have been overall.  Consider:
  • From 2000-present the Boilermakers are tied with PSU for most wins over tOSU with five.  Wisconsin has four; MSU, Clemson, and Michigan have three; USC, USCe, IL, UF, TX, and IA have two each.  
  • Purdue's .385 winning percentage against tOSU from 2000-present ranks them 10th but note that the nine teams ahead of them have only played the Buckeyes three or less times each.  Purdue has accomplished this while playing the Buckeyes 13 times.  

Of Purdue's five wins over tOSU from 2000-present only three times could you reasonably argue that PU was as good or better:
  • 2000:  Both teams finished 8-4, PU won the conference and went to the RB.  
  • 2004:  PU finished 7-5, tOSU finished 8-4.  
  • 2011:  The mulligan/Fickell year, PU finished 7-6 while tOSU finished 6-7.   
The other two were shocking upsets:
  • 2009:  PU finished 5-7, tOSU finished 11-2.  The Buckeyes won the conference and the RB.  
  • 2018:  PU finished 6-7, tOSU finished 13-1, won the B1GCCG, and won the RB.    


 

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