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I think my conjecture is pretty wild, and it's possible it's more or less correct.

If someone can explain Sweden otherwise, I'd like to hear it.  They didn't change policy or how people behaved.

I think my conjecture is pretty wild, and it's possible it's more or less correct.

If someone can explain Sweden otherwise, I'd like to hear it.  They didn't change policy or how people behaved.

Policy != Behavior

https://www.newsweek.com/sweden-covid-19-death-rate-lower-spain-italy-uk-despite-never-having-lockdown-1522306

Anders Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist at Sweden's public health agency, noted last week: "We have cut down on movement in society quite a lot. We have compared how much we travel in Scandinavian countries, and the decrease in travel is the same in Sweden as in neighboring countries," in an interview with UnHerd.

"In many ways the voluntary measures we put in place in Sweden have been just as effective as complete lockdowns in other countries," he added.

They encouraged WFH. They encouraged social distancing. They are claiming [above] that voluntary changes reduced mobility. 

What they didn't do is mandate it, and people are acting like that means nothing changed at all. 

But, they did this from the start, right?  It's not some change in behavior 3-4-5 weeks ago.   The change of COVID rates of infection are astonishing.

The numbers ran up initially quite high, and then went way down.  Why?

Something changed.

You don't think it's at all possible that more people have had this than is being reported?

I've seen estimates of 20-30 times more than reported, by people who know more than me.

The truth is that we don't know, but here's a few thoughts.

Obviously there's a multiplier of true cases to confirmed cases. The horribly bad Santa Clara study said somewhere between 28-55x was the multiplier, but that was widely ridiculed for many [very good] reasons. 

I think the multiplier is probably 5-10x, but starting to come down as testing is so much more available than it was a few months ago. 

I don't think anywhere NEAR half the country has had it. Maybe 15% tops by now is where I'd put the extreme upper bound. 

But, they did this from the start, right?  It's not some change in behavior 3-4-5 weeks ago.  The change of COVID rates of infection are astonishing.

The numbers ran up initially quite high, and then went way down.  Why?

Something changed.

I'm saying that peoples' behavior changed. Not government policy, not mandates, not anything. People, as an aggregate, made some small changes to their behavior because they were alarmed by the rising case rates and that brought down R0. 

Again, it doesn't take much. Hanging out in the backyard with a friend in the heat instead of inside in the A/C because you know outside is a little easier, and greeting without a hug. Skipping that unnecessary restaurant stop when you know you can order takeout. Being just a hair more vigilant about hand sanitizer when you go to the grocery store because you know how the cases are spiking. Avoiding that summer BBQ that you might have gone to before cases were spiking because you're a little more worried. Etc etc etc.

Or more specifically here in the US, a bunch of young people maybe NOT going out to the bar as often--in the places they're still open. Or not going to parties as much. 

These things, writ large over a population, can make a pretty big difference to R0.

Yes they did.  And following bwar's logic, as people saw the case numbers start coming down, their behavior should actually have become more lax and so it should be getting worse in Sweden as times goes on.

That's what happened here in the USA.  It's what's happening currently in Spain, and other places where it was diminished, and is now flaring up again.

If you look at Sweden's graph, some of it is very similar to here. 

They had a run-up in cases just like everywhere else. They never locked down, so they didn't get a huge decrease in daily cases like some places did, but it plateaued. Then they had an explosion that ran for nearly a month, and then since the beginning of July they've had a strong decrease. 

Now, I've argued against post-hoc narrative-building as it relates to sports, but here's a potential timeline/explanation:

• The initial run-up was like anywhere else, took everyone by surprise. 
• They pushed for some policies like WFH, locking down nursing homes, etc. The public was still in a bit of a shock with this, and so they were doing their best to maintain social distance.
• Their plateau in daily case rates went almost 2 months, from early April until late May. The whole time, the world kept asking "did Sweden get it right?" and people grew complacent about all the things they'd been doing. While they never had official lockdowns, I suspect they got quarantine fatigue and thought this wasn't all that big of a deal. They started getting lax in their behavior.
• When June hit, they saw a rapid spike in cases. New daily case rates doubled over that month. Again, this took everyone by surprise.
• Due to the surprise, the realized this thing wasn't over and they needed to go back to being vigilant. 
• They did so, and cases came down.

Sweden has a lot of demographic advantages to help control spread. A lot of WFH opportunity (many were already doing so). A lot of single-person households, and few 3-generation households. A strong social safety net to deal with the economic dislocation of people not going out and spending. 

If you look at Sweden's graph, some of it is very similar to here.

They had a run-up in cases just like everywhere else. They never locked down, so they didn't get a huge decrease in daily cases like some places did, but it plateaued. Then they had an explosion that ran for nearly a month, and then since the beginning of July they've had a strong decrease.

Now, I've argued against post-hoc narrative-building as it relates to sports, but here's a potential timeline/explanation:

• The initial run-up was like anywhere else, took everyone by surprise.
• They pushed for some policies like WFH, locking down nursing homes, etc. The public was still in a bit of a shock with this, and so they were doing their best to maintain social distance.
• Their plateau in daily case rates went almost 2 months, from early April until late May. The whole time, the world kept asking "did Sweden get it right?" and people grew complacent about all the things they'd been doing. While they never had official lockdowns, I suspect they got quarantine fatigue and thought this wasn't all that big of a deal. They started getting lax in their behavior.
• When June hit, they saw a rapid spike in cases. New daily case rates doubled over that month. Again, this took everyone by surprise.
• Due to the surprise, the realized this thing wasn't over and they needed to go back to being vigilant.
• They did so, and cases came down.

Sweden has a lot of demographic advantages to help control spread. A lot of WFH opportunity (many were already doing so). A lot of single-person households, and few 3-generation households. A strong social safety net to deal with the economic dislocation of people not going out and spending.

Sure,  that's certainly one potential explanation.  Others are being offered and I'm not sure they're significantly less plausible than yours, that's alls I'm sayin'.