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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7756 on: August 03, 2020, 06:11:55 PM »
Conjecture?

My one case could have went to hundreds of people, by my wife reporting to work while having it.

There are a lot of examples like me. To know even I had it, I needed an antibody test months later, because we had no tests here in March. Only then did I become a statistic. 3 months later.

Just think about it, OK?

I think what bwar is trying to square up with your hypothetical (as am I), is why didn't we see large increases in hospital cases for ILI/pneumonia, earlier, if it really was running rampant and infecting a larger part of the population?

You've offered one explanation that might be plausible, that it was roaming around people that weren't as serious a health risk, and it didn't really hit the hospitals until it got into more at-risk populations.  I don't know if we'll be able to gather the data to really flesh out that hypothesis, but I suppose it's possible.  

Are there any other hypotheses that fit the facts?  

bwarbiany

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7757 on: August 03, 2020, 06:16:01 PM »
My friend in Sweden tells me they had constant behaviors over time, they never at any point "changed" to being more careful, they were careful from the get go.

That is one person of course.

I tend to doubt folks saw bad numbers and tightened up on that overall, I see evidence to the contrary.

And the theory is that folks have immunity/resistance from a similar corona virus in the past in large numbers.
Cincy, I can tell you that just from your own posts, it seems like your behavior became more lax as things started to open up, especially because Georgia's numbers weren't spiking, and then tightened as Georgia's numbers started to go up.

Would that be accurate? 

I'll bet if we polled most of the posters here, a good number would say that during May when we were in a lull in cases and things were reopening, they slowly eased their behavior, and then when cases started spiking hard in June/July they tightened. I know I did. 

And I'm not saying the theory that there is some immunity, perhaps from the variants of the common cold, that might be helping some people out. I consider it conjecture rather than something that has the weight of evidence behind it, of course. But I'm willing to admit that it's possible, and perhaps as the science becomes more clear, we'll find out it was there all along.

What I'm saying is this...

When cases started spiking in the US, but deaths didn't, there were a whole lot of conjectures as to why. Maybe it was because we had better treatments. Maybe it was the different age cohort. Maybe it was because the virus had mutated to be less deadly. Some of us said "hey guys, think about the lag time, maybe we're getting complacent", and lo and behold, 3-4 weeks after cases spiked we saw a significant national upturn in deaths. 

Now we went through a major spike of cases (which wouldn't make a ton of sense if we had widespread immunity) after reopening and now cases are dropping despite limited official changes to gov't policy on reopening. People throw out ideas like "oh, maybe immunity is more widespread than we thought" because we didn't change policy, but those of us who follow the human side of this believe that individual behavior DID change due to the spike in cases. And that it's a lot easier to explain a drop in cases based on behavior than it is on the idea that some completely unknown and unproven immunity exists. 

So... You might be right. But I'm going to withhold my hope/believe in that theory until we see some more evidence than looking at the curves and speculating.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7758 on: August 03, 2020, 06:28:17 PM »
Not much, really.  I was paying close attention to the numbers and we probably did avoid taking an over night trip somewhere as a result.  We're still dining out at about the same rate.  I can't see how my personal behavior changes would have made much of a difference if compounded x 10 million.  We still dine out fairly often, mostly outside, and we are having elective surgeries.

Something to worry about is kids, if adults have some latent resistance, kids may not have it.  The YMCA story here suggests they don't, they had nearly a 50% hit rate after that camp.

But, if modest behavior changes have caused these drops, that also is good news, if the behaviors persist.

Mask wearing where we are is probably over 90%, and I'd consider that as a plausible factor here, and that also would be good news if so.

Today's newly reported cases in GA is way down, but just one day, a thousand under the 7 day average.  Just one day.

bwarbiany

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7759 on: August 03, 2020, 06:35:30 PM »
Conjecture?

My one case could have went to hundreds of people, by my wife reporting to work while having it.

There are a lot of examples like me. To know even I had it, I needed an antibody test months later, because we had no tests here in March. Only then did I become a statistic. 3 months later.

Just think about it, OK?
Definitely thinking about it.

I don't know your wife's behavior. Personally if I had it and I went into the office, I'd likely barely spread it because I rarely talk to anyone. Maybe your wife was the office social butterfly; I don't know. Nor do I know the timeframe you're talking about. 

We've got a lot to learn on this thing. But the little we know doesn't really justify a belief in 50% of the population having had it at this time. Maybe that's the truth, but I'm still in the "show me" mode on that.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7760 on: August 03, 2020, 06:47:46 PM »
I think we're all in the show me mode.  And my notion is not that half of us had COVID 19, but we had something similar enough that our immune systems respond to it quicker than they would otherwise.

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7761 on: August 03, 2020, 07:04:58 PM »
I think we're all in the show me mode.  And my notion is not that half of us had COVID 19, but we had something similar enough that our immune systems respond to it quicker than they would otherwise.
so maybe we need to develop COVID 19 Jr  and give a weaker version to everybody
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7762 on: August 03, 2020, 08:00:40 PM »
you eat the first bat
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Honestbuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7763 on: August 03, 2020, 08:03:48 PM »
you eat the first bat
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7764 on: August 03, 2020, 08:49:33 PM »
you eat the first bat
youve never had bat soup?
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7765 on: August 03, 2020, 09:05:14 PM »
nope, but I offered to take a company trip to China back in the 90s just to try some of the god awful food I was told about

I would have tried it, if it didn't smell too awful
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CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7766 on: August 03, 2020, 09:23:36 PM »
Today, I went into the school where I teach.  I needed to print a 395-page document and turn it in to the print shop for 30 copies.  I saw probably 12 people.  One, other than I, was wearing a mask.  Two put masks on when I walked into their areas.

I'll bet we don't last a month before we go all "virtual."

We're planning on starting up with half the student body coming in M-Th the first week, then Friday will be distance-learning. Second week, the other half of the students come in and the first half stay home, M-Th. Friday will be distance-learning again.  Third week will be all distance-learning.

Maybe it will work.  I'm not optimistic.

My wife has multiple autoimmune disorders.  I cannot afford to bring COVID home with me.
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7767 on: August 03, 2020, 09:38:32 PM »
Omaha is starting with 25%, monday, 25%, tuesday, 25%, wednesday, 25% thursday, Friday distance learning

so hopefully the first spread is only 25%

then they can close down
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7768 on: August 03, 2020, 11:01:40 PM »
We know what's going to happen and yet we're just going to shove people into schools......this is reason number 191383837173 why the U.S. isn't the best country in the world.  We're fucking stupid.
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Hawkinole

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7769 on: August 04, 2020, 02:21:52 AM »
We know what's going to happen and yet we're just going to shove people into schools......this is reason number 191383837173 why the U.S. isn't the best country in the world.  We're fucking stupid.
I distrust what we are doing with school reopenings. In June most of us were being convinced with warmer weather the virus would be tamped down. It wasn't tamped down. It plateaued or rose in most parts of the USA, so now school reopenings appear contraindicated, and yet we are a stubborn people being led down a path like sheep into a position that will most probably appear hopeless. 
Remember Page 555 of this thread, and either diss me, or memorialize this post circa 10/12/2020. I have big shoulders, either way.

 

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