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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Honestbuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3122 on: April 29, 2020, 01:22:03 PM »
Do you really think that the world's leaders want to have their economies crash? Don't you think that the intense scrutiny on Sweden is in the hopes that their model actually provides a POSITIVE example for how we can start to reopen?

Literally if this wasn't serious, any country which remained fully open in a "let 'er rip" manner would have huge advantages over their peers as far as economic performance over the next few months... Yet nobody is doing so.

Again, the easiest explanation for why the world's governments have taken such strong steps is that they actually believe this virus is that dangerous.

If you want to reopen now, given the fact that even our own POTUS' administration created clear guidelines for the conditions necessary and the phases of reopening to do so safely, and those conditions haven't been met, you have to believe one of two things:

  • The virus isn't as serious as stated, and all of the world's epidemiologists who believed these significant controls were necessary to prevent enormous loss of life are wrong.
  • That enormous loss of life isn't a big deal and people should just suck it up and deal with it so we don't have any economic slowdown.



I'm not saying there aren't financial incentives to call cases COVID-19 vs something else--at least in the US. But do you think those incentives are so incredible, and the moral fiber of the nation's coroners so weak, that this is a major problem? I.e. that we now have 60K deaths in this country attributed to COVID-19, but that the real number is FAR lower, i.e. 15K or 30K? Because unless the effect is massive, it doesn't change anything about the argument.

I do agree there are financial incentives to remain on unemployment. For many of the poorest workers, they're actually earning more on unemployment than they were earning from their jobs. For many others, they're earning an income close enough to what they were earning to justify trying to stay home instead of going back to work. And if we reopen the economy, obviously we need to phase out the special federal unemployment benefits to force those people to return to their old jobs or look for new ones. But what does that statement have to do with the argument of whether it's
SAFE to reopen the economy?


No. I specifically don’t think world leaders want that.  That’s why I specifically refer only to this country.

as far as financial motivation- I am merely pointing out the obvious- and agreeing with what many here have said- it is very challenging to trust the data. $13000 reimbursement to a hospital is not the same as a COVID use of a ventilator which pays $39000. 
as for those making more on unemployment- I simply point that out because it is a reasonable assumption they are not the ones protesting.  which means those protesting are likely in grave danger financially- and do not deserve to be treated with such arrogance and disdain by the media, and talking heads- as if their point of view is outrageous.  Their point of view- which seems to be that the restrictions are too severe in some locations and/or they need to unwind them faster- is very reasonable.
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3123 on: April 29, 2020, 01:22:58 PM »
I really don't get all of the conspiracy stuff.

Do I think China lied about their numbers?  Sure I do.  That's pretty well documented.

Do I think that China's lack of safety regulations probably played a part in this virus transmitting to humans?  Looks like it.

Do I think the US was woefully unprepared for a pandemic as far as economic, medical, and public response?  Absolutely.  But so were a lot of other countries.  Learn from it and move on.

Do I think that China tanked the worlds economy and their own for... reasons? - No, and I have seen zero evidence that supports this weird theory.

Do I think this virus "escaped from a lab?" No, that's ridiculous nonsense and a quick Google search will bring up quite a few peer reviewed scientific articles on why that isn't the case.

Do I think that somehow this virus was started in China to bring down Donald Trump? No, that's horse patooey. 

Pandemics have happened before, and they will happen again.  Sometimes sh!t happens.  That's it.  There is no WHY.  It just happened.

Honestbuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3124 on: April 29, 2020, 01:25:13 PM »
It isn't the same everywhere, it isn't the case that nothing has worked. What is the case is that social distancing has saved lives, and that places that implemented it earlier are doing better than places that didn't. And places that didn't implement it early, but were early victims of the virus, like Italy, have paid brutal consequences which have shut their economies down every bit as much as ours.

The medical and scientific community seem nearly unanimous in how to approach this. Of course there are dissenters--there are in everything, including the scientific community--but the rage against what that community seems to believe is sound science is stunning. Political interest groups that have no background in medicine and science are working very hard to overrule the medical community's judgement on a medical issue. That is deeply concerning, but not as concerning as the willingness of our population to sign up to support those political groups.
Amen

At least to the political part.  There are dissenting voices in the medical community- but they are ignored or sensors out.  
The bigger shock to me is our failure to customize our approach.  

If you just isolate NYC and focus a ton of resources in them ( after all- according to virtually all media and talking heads, the USA has more cases and deaths than any country- so that means NYC is ground zero for the world), as well as the most vulnerable ( elderly and those with underlying health issues) not only do the numbers improve dramatically, it opens the possibility that these lock downs are not needed for most of the general population. 
« Last Edit: April 29, 2020, 01:34:58 PM by Honestbuckeye »
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3125 on: April 29, 2020, 01:32:04 PM »
Most opinions in the US get formed based on what Trump says, or didn't say.  Most meaning 60% or so.  30% lap it up and 30% automatically discount it.  There is little to no thought about any of it.

A fairly fancy seafood restaurant near us has a sign up "NOW OPEN!".  That is the first I have seen. 

https://www.theoceanaire.com/location/atlanta-ga/

Our local favorite place where we know folks is doing a top to bottom cleaning and painting and scrubbing and they told me they will open May 14.  The wife noted that Mother's Day is May 10, I imagine a lot of places will try and make that date.

Every other place around us is still take out only. 

We walked over to the Midtown Butcher Shop and I got two NY Strips, came to $50.  They appear to be doing a LOT of business.


the Oceanaires here in the midwest are one of our best options for very good seafood

I hope those strips were 2 lbs a piece 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3126 on: April 29, 2020, 01:33:40 PM »
I think it POSSIBLE it escaped from that lab.  It is conceivable they were studying zoonoses and this one got out.  It could have been an accident.

It is also POSSIBLE it got into humans through the markets, pangolins or whatever.


Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3127 on: April 29, 2020, 01:35:45 PM »
It isn't the same everywhere, it isn't the case that nothing has worked. What is the case is that social distancing has saved lives, and that places that implemented it earlier are doing better than places that didn't. And places that didn't implement it early, but were early victims of the virus, like Italy, have paid brutal consequences which have shut their economies down every bit as much as ours.

The medical and scientific community seem nearly unanimous in how to approach this. Of course there are dissenters--there are in everything, including the scientific community--but the rage against what that community seems to believe is sound science is stunning. Political interest groups that have no background in medicine and science are working very hard to overrule the medical community's judgement on a medical issue. That is deeply concerning, but not as concerning as the willingness of our population to sign up to support those political groups.
Yesterday our township supervisor, in writing, said that "science is BS". 

There has been a long campaign against science for awhile now.  It isn't just the crazy fundamentalists, either.  Regular people have suddenly stopped vaccinating their kids.  Something like 35% of the country doesn't believe in man made climate change.  Baseless fears against GMOs run rampant.  etc. etc. etc.

You can't use facts and logic to change people's mind, either.  Because as evidence mounts against their viewpoint they will turn to conspiracy theories rather than admit they were just wrong.

Someone asked earlier what South Korea did that was so effective?  Culturally, they actually believe experts in the field, prepped appropriately, and then listened to their advice.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3128 on: April 29, 2020, 01:36:06 PM »
the Oceanaires here in the midwest are one of our best options for very good seafood

I hope those strips were 2 lbs a piece
We went to Oceanaire once.  I thought it very over priced for rather mediocre service and menu items.  Our wine server was clearly clueless about wine.  They were out of the one I ordered and the one he suggested was not remotely the same thing, and he said he would charge me the same price, but the one he suggested was $2 cheaper.

He was rather annoyed when I pointed this out to him.  To me, the place seemed pretentious and not up to standards for that price range.

The steaks were $21/lb.

bayareabadger

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3129 on: April 29, 2020, 01:40:59 PM »
This is why I appreciate this site so much. People here actually take the time to filter and sift through data. I can't thank BWar enough for his analyses, for example.

What I learn here is far better than what I learn on TV, with everything being editorialized these days. Just about nobody reports just plain news anymore.
I was reading a book about the history of NY that reminded me that in truth, reporting has always had its issues, just like everything else (it did used to be less loud). 

Some interesting history about how an unelected power player was boosted by a newspaper corps that bought into his mythology and had the first crack in his empire because of a rather small tempest in a teapot story. 

bayareabadger

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3130 on: April 29, 2020, 01:42:16 PM »
You know what would be bad? Bad would be if this topic made it to 2000 pages.

God, I hope it doesn't.
I'm so excited for when it gets locked for good. 

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3131 on: April 29, 2020, 01:44:05 PM »
my experience in Minneapolis is much different and much better

definitely NOT the place to get a steak in Minneapolis

"Reader's Choice "Best Seafood Restaurant" - Mpls-StPaul Magazine, (2007, 2008, 2012, 2016, 2018)

"Best Of" Awards, Best Seafood Restaurant - Minnesota Monthly, (2007, 2008, 2009)

Critic's Choice "Best Seafood" - Mpls-StPaul Magazine, (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011)

Reader's Poll - 1st Place "Seafood", 3rd Place "Service", 3rd Place "Special Occasion" - Mpls-StPaul Magazine, (2008)
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bayareabadger

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3132 on: April 29, 2020, 01:49:52 PM »

as far as financial motivation- I am merely pointing out the obvious- and agreeing with what many here have said- it is very challenging to trust the data. $13000 reimbursement to a hospital is not the same as a COVID use of a ventilator which pays $39000. 
as for those making more on unemployment- I simply point that out because it is a reasonable assumption they are not the ones protesting.  which means those protesting are likely in grave danger financially- and do not deserve to be treated with such arrogance and disdain by the media, and talking heads- as if their point of view is outrageous.  Their point of view- which seems to be that the restrictions are too severe in some locations and/or they need to unwind them faster- is very reasonable.

So my question to the first part is if you have to punt on a huge proportion of non-COVID related treatment, are you actually coming out ahead?

And to the bolded part, do we have a sense of how many folks are making more on unemployment? Is that a large group? My gut would be no, for obvious reasons, but I'd imagine the receive a lot of the attention. 

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3133 on: April 29, 2020, 01:52:37 PM »
It isn't the same everywhere, it isn't the case that nothing has worked. What is the case is that social distancing has saved lives, and that places that implemented it earlier are doing better than places that didn't. And places that didn't implement it early, but were early victims of the virus, like Italy, have paid brutal consequences which have shut their economies down every bit as much as ours.

The medical and scientific community seem nearly unanimous in how to approach this. Of course there are dissenters--there are in everything, including the scientific community--but the rage against what that community seems to believe is sound science is stunning. Political interest groups that have no background in medicine and science are working very hard to overrule the medical community's judgement on a medical issue. That is deeply concerning, but not as concerning as the willingness of our population to sign up to support those political groups.
How the heck can you plainly state this as if fact? We're 6 months in and there are no answers. We know nothing. Absolutely nothing.

As for the social distancing, I agree it has saved lives. For NOW.

We'll see how many it's saved in a year. Remember, social distancing was not originally about preventing infections or deaths. It was meant to spread them out, so as to not overwhelm our hospitals.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3134 on: April 29, 2020, 01:54:38 PM »
I really don't get all of the conspiracy stuff.

Do I think China lied about their numbers?  Sure I do.  That's pretty well documented.

Do I think that China's lack of safety regulations probably played a part in this virus transmitting to humans?  Looks like it.

Do I think the US was woefully unprepared for a pandemic as far as economic, medical, and public response?  Absolutely.  But so were a lot of other countries.  Learn from it and move on.

Do I think that China tanked the worlds economy and their own for... reasons? - No, and I have seen zero evidence that supports this weird theory.

Do I think this virus "escaped from a lab?" No, that's ridiculous nonsense and a quick Google search will bring up quite a few peer reviewed scientific articles on why that isn't the case.


Do I think that somehow this virus was started in China to bring down Donald Trump? No, that's horse patooey. 

Pandemics have happened before, and they will happen again.  Sometimes sh!t happens.  That's it.  There is no WHY.  It just happened.
Post bookmarked for future reference.
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SFBadger96

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3135 on: April 29, 2020, 02:00:56 PM »
How the heck can you plainly state this as if fact? We're 6 months in and there are no answers. We know nothing. Absolutely nothing.

As for the social distancing, I agree it has saved lives. For NOW.

We'll see how many it's saved in a year. Remember, social distancing was not originally about preventing infections or deaths. It was meant to spread them out, so as to not overwhelm our hospitals.
Because it is one--as you yourself confirm. Flattening the curve while we work out better ways to address this, up to an including finding a cure/vaccine, is effective. Yes, it is about spreading them out--slowing them down--while we find better solutions. Particularly with the evidence that having the disease doesn't prevent reinfection, "ripping off the band-aid" appears to not be a viable solution.

 

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