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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2786 on: April 24, 2020, 01:19:52 PM »
I just read about the parks in Illinois that will be opened up.

I also just read that hunting is still not allowed. Hmm.
you dont want Bambi to get the virus do you
« Last Edit: April 24, 2020, 01:28:58 PM by longhorn320 »
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2787 on: April 24, 2020, 01:23:24 PM »
There's no need for binary thinking here, I don't see anyone "dying on the hill" of mask wearing.

I see people asking legitimate questions of their government about the effectiveness of a scarf in the face of viral spread.  And I see someone criticizing a judge for effectively creating legislation which is not an action that is within her purview or the roles and responsibilities of her job, and for very good reason.

There's nothing wrong with questioning our government when it makes unilateral mandates, I'd hope and expect everyone on this board would be willing to do so.

And there's nothing wrong with questioning whether ANY old face covering, including a scarf or ski mask, is actually going to be effective at all, and if not, then what is the utility or purpose in wearing them?

Regardless, I'll continue to wear my Longhorn-logo mask that my mom made me, whilst out in public.  When I wear my black raybans and my black Longhorn ballcap, I look like a total badass, and I might just continue wearing that getup long after this has all passed.

Maybe I'll throw in a cape, too.


longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2788 on: April 24, 2020, 01:27:08 PM »
You don't have a "natural" right to drive on the roads because the government owns the roads therefore the right to drive on the road is governed by the owners of the road (One of the natural rights, the right to property)
1st of all the Government is the people and yes the people do own the roads

2nd the ability to drive is necessary in the pursuit of happiness by earning a living and just enjoying life in general

I can guarantee you that if for no reason the government or people decided they didnt want you to drive for no good reason

it would be held unconstitutional 
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2789 on: April 24, 2020, 01:28:39 PM »

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2790 on: April 24, 2020, 01:31:16 PM »
There's no need for binary thinking here, I don't see anyone "dying on the hill" of mask wearing.

I see people asking legitimate questions of their government about the effectiveness of a scarf in the face of viral spread.  And I see someone criticizing a judge for effectively creating legislation which is not an action that is within her purview or the roles and responsibilities of her job, and for very good reason.

There's nothing wrong with questioning our government when it makes unilateral mandates, I'd hope and expect everyone on this board would be willing to do so.

And there's nothing wrong with questioning whether ANY old face covering, including a scarf or ski mask, is actually going to be effective at all, and if not, then what is the utility or purpose in wearing them?

Regardless, I'll continue to wear my Longhorn-logo mask that my mom made me, whilst out in public.  When I wear my black raybans and my black Longhorn ballcap, I look like a total badass, and I might just continue wearing that getup long after this has all passed.

Maybe I'll throw in a cape, too.


photos we demand photos
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2791 on: April 24, 2020, 01:35:08 PM »
I believe the main reason California has done very well is the fact that they had the virus at least 4 months before realized

they have herd immunity

I think more antibody testing will support this view
This isn't quite right.

The studies from NYC and from USC (and Iceland, and South Korea), have shown that COVID probably has a much lower death rate on infections in the general population than originally suspected.  However, they also show that large numbers of people can carry the virus and have no idea they are carriers.  It also means that the Coronavirus is very likely FAR more contagious that we originally suspected.

A few things to keep in mind though:

The latest study shows that 13% or so of New Yorkers have Coronavirus antibodies.  However, more than 1 in 1000 New Yorkers have died from the Coronavirus and the hospitals were on the verge of being overwhelmed.  New York's death toll would be far higher if the hospitals ran out of capacity.

That 13% number is a bit suspect.  Chiefly because people were asked to volunteer for tests while waiting in line at grocery stores and other essential shops.  Obviously those who were more strict about social distancing would probably not be in public as often.

With evidence mounting that COVID is acutely more contagious than originally suspected, it makes an earlier timeline for this pandemic actually more unlikely.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2792 on: April 24, 2020, 01:41:24 PM »
If it is true that 15% or so have antibodies, it is possible the virus was here earlier than we think and not quite as contagious as we think.

MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2793 on: April 24, 2020, 01:42:39 PM »
 I'll continue to wear my Longhorn-logo mask that my mom made me, whilst out in public.  When I wear my black raybans and my black Longhorn ballcap, I look like a total badass,

RUH-ROH,If I bump into any COVID molecules I'll advise them to steer clear
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2794 on: April 24, 2020, 01:50:48 PM »
If it is true that 15% or so have antibodies, it is possible the virus was here earlier than we think and not quite as contagious as we think.
No, that's inaccurate.

It means the virus is likely more contagious than we think.  That is assuming you trust the experts in the field.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2795 on: April 24, 2020, 01:51:07 PM »
There is a big difference between Typhoid Mary and maybe you "might" be a carrier.  So yes my rights end where I damage you. However I am a firm believer that Tort law (in general) is what should govern these type of things not governmental law. And with that said, I am a pretty extreme libertarian, but I understand the way I think the relationship between the government and the people should be, it isn't that way. However, I will continue to make my case for it to be that way.

Where my extremism comes into play in your scenario is this. If I am "knowingly" carrying a deadly virus and I go out and expose people to it and someone dies, I should be charged with murder. If some is exposed by me and are damaged, I should be subject to be sued in court to compensate for that damage. The key to this is "knowingly"
The problem when something like this pops onto the scene is that we don't know squat for certain. 

We know it's deadly. We're not sure HOW deadly, but it appears to be multiples of the flu.

We know it's easily transmissible. We're not sure HOW transmissible, but it seems to be multiples of the flu, at least. 

We know that it has a long incubation period, and that is transmissible prior to symptoms. We also know that there are asymptomatic carriers that we believe can transmit the virus. 

We have a severe test shortage, so it's damn near impossible to know who is carrying it. 

The problem with something so new, like this, is that if you wait until you know everything about it you're in full blown outbreak and it's WAY too big to control. 

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2796 on: April 24, 2020, 01:56:03 PM »
This isn't quite right.

The studies from NYC and from USC (and Iceland, and South Korea), have shown that COVID probably has a much lower death rate on infections in the general population than originally suspected.  However, they also show that large numbers of people can carry the virus and have no idea they are carriers.  It also means that the Coronavirus is very likely FAR more contagious that we originally suspected.

A few things to keep in mind though:

The latest study shows that 13% or so of New Yorkers have Coronavirus antibodies.  However, more than 1 in 1000 New Yorkers have died from the Coronavirus and the hospitals were on the verge of being overwhelmed.  New York's death toll would be far higher if the hospitals ran out of capacity.

That 13% number is a bit suspect.  Chiefly because people were asked to volunteer for tests while waiting in line at grocery stores and other essential shops.  Obviously those who were more strict about social distancing would probably not be in public as often.

With evidence mounting that COVID is acutely more contagious than originally suspected, it makes an earlier timeline for this pandemic actually more unlikely. 
only way to find out for sure is to test suspected virus deaths from Oct to Jan

There should be a lot more testing done

the initial test was conducted in NYC I believe and used to represent the whole state
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2797 on: April 24, 2020, 01:57:46 PM »
I believe the main reason California has done very well is the fact that they had the virus at least 4 months before realized

they have herd immunity

I think more antibody testing will support this view
Herd immunity doesn't tend to take hold until you have MUCH higher infection rates.

I think both the Santa Clara and Los Angeles antibody testing suggested a maximum infection rate of ~5%.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

Per that, influenza requires about a 33-44% immunity rate (whether by actual infection or by vaccine) to achieve herd immunity. 

Highly contagious diseases like measles require >90% immunity rate to achieve herd immunity.

This is based on R0. The more transmissible something is, the higher the immunity rate necessary for the disease to start to die out. 

That site estimates COVID-19 could be anywhere between 29% immunity rate up to a 74% immunity rate, but that's because it has to accommodate a VERY wide range of R0 because we know so little about the true R0. 

But in no reality is a 5% antibody rate consistent with herd immunity. 

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2798 on: April 24, 2020, 01:59:54 PM »
The problem when something like this pops onto the scene is that we don't know squat for certain.

We know it's deadly. We're not sure HOW deadly, but it appears to be multiples of the flu.

We know it's easily transmissible. We're not sure HOW transmissible, but it seems to be multiples of the flu, at least.

We know that it has a long incubation period, and that is transmissible prior to symptoms. We also know that there are asymptomatic carriers that we believe can transmit the virus.

We have a severe test shortage, so it's damn near impossible to know who is carrying it.

The problem with something so new, like this, is that if you wait until you know everything about it you're in full blown outbreak and it's WAY too big to control.

we also know that there probably huge numbers of folks that have had it gotten over it that no body knows about'

again we really dont know its any more deadly then the flu
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

Riffraft

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2799 on: April 24, 2020, 02:03:54 PM »
1st of all the Government is the people and yes the people do own the roads

2nd the ability to drive is necessary in the pursuit of happiness by earning a living and just enjoying life in general

I can guarantee you that if for no reason the government or people decided they didnt want you to drive for no good reason

it would be held unconstitutional
I agree the ability to freely move about is a natural right, but that right ends at the property line of others. 

You better be careful, you are approaching the argument of the "anti-government" folks who say the constitution guarantees you the right to travel with no interference from the government (including driver's licenses). (I am just joking with you). Just for fun google it, you will find that are people quite vocal about it. 

 

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