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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2814 on: April 24, 2020, 03:00:25 PM »
I mean... probably?  I sure would love to think so! :)

But there are clearly some factors that are resulting in differences in the outcomes from place to place.  What are they?  Characterizing and understanding those factors is incredibly important in our ability to fight this thing, with the fewest possible deaths and serious cases.
Texas is warmer, more spread out, and smaller than Alaska.  So I get what you're saying. Different than New York.  So best I could find was that 2.9K died in Texas from the flu in 2017, while New York had 4.7K flu deaths.  Pretty significant.

So what you're saying is:  No matter what, all things being equal, NEW YORK would probably have it worse than Texas.

Yeah, probably.  I know 5 people that have/had coronavirus.  It's bad in our area.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2815 on: April 24, 2020, 03:09:06 PM »
Texas is warmer, more spread out, and smaller than Alaska.  So I get what you're saying. Different than New York.  So best I could find was that 2.9K died in Texas from the flu in 2017, while New York had 4.7K flu deaths.  Pretty significant.

So what you're saying is:  No matter what, all things being equal, NEW YORK would probably have it worse than Texas.

Yeah, probably.  I know 5 people that have/had coronavirus.  It's bad in our area.

That's not really what I'm trying to say, although it might come out that way in the wash?

Just my personal speculation, I think there are a LOT of potential factors that play into it.  I don't think we know much yet, what those factors are.  We have some guesses, some hypotheses worth investigating, is all.

Right now, some of the experts are saying they don't see evidence that warmer weather is going to be a major factor.  But perhaps they're wrong and it is?  

Density might also be a factor, but we're seeing some very dense places that aren't being hit as badly as New York (city).




Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2816 on: April 24, 2020, 03:11:43 PM »
I suspect NYC was hit by travelers from Europe returning not knowing they were contagious at the time, and perhaps visitors.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2817 on: April 24, 2020, 03:17:23 PM »
I suspect NYC was hit by travelers from Europe returning not knowing they were contagious at the time, and perhaps visitors.
For sure, I think that's one of the major assumptions here.  But they also had government-mandated restrictions and lockdowns before Texas did. 

And California most assuredly had massive amounts of Chinese travelers, that we suspect were also contagious and not knowing it at the time.  Yet they're not having the same issues that NY is having.  I think it's very important that we determine the cause of the different outcomes, not just for managing this crisis, but for setting plans in place for managing the next one.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2818 on: April 24, 2020, 03:24:27 PM »
NYC is a lot denser than even SF per unit area, and subway usage is obviously very prevalent, as are cabs and Uber etc.  A lot of folks living in NYC don't have personal cars (more than SF).  LA is spread out, as is Seattle (which is pretty dense downtown).  I don't think any place in the US has the population density of Manhattan.

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2819 on: April 24, 2020, 03:32:03 PM »
s-u-b-w-a-y-s

all citys with major subway systems which were never shut down are hot spots
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2820 on: April 24, 2020, 03:35:10 PM »
s-u-b-w-a-y-s

all citys with major subway systems which were never shut down are hot spots

Certainly could be a contributing factor.  I think it's something we need to understand, deeply, in addressing both this crisis, and the next one.

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2821 on: April 24, 2020, 03:42:19 PM »
driving on the highway w/o my prescription glasses would be very dangerous to others, but driving w/o my seat belt buckled or riding my motorcycle w/o wearing a helmet doesn't bother anyone besides the insurance company

speaking of insurance companies, it's illegal for me to drive w/o proof of insurance
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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2822 on: April 24, 2020, 03:43:14 PM »
I suspect NYC was hit by travelers from Europe returning not knowing they were contagious at the time, and perhaps visitors.
And subway riders not using masks/sanitzer,distancing
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2823 on: April 24, 2020, 03:46:08 PM »
 riding my motorcycle w/o wearing a helmet doesn't bother anyone besides the insurance company
A friend one time was talking to a paramedic and asked if there was a difference between wearing a helmet or not.He responded an open or closed casket
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2824 on: April 24, 2020, 03:49:45 PM »
Right now, some of the experts are saying they don't see evidence that warmer weather is going to be a major factor.  But perhaps they're wrong and it is? 

I've been watching Malaysia more closely because it's an important part of the supply chain for my industry, and when their cases started jumping it was hot as hell there. They're on lockdown right now, which seems to have cut the spread well, but the heat didn't seem to stop the spread.

I have a customer in Singapore and they just extended their lockdown to June 1. It's hot, humid, and rainy there, and yet their cases have spiked hard in the last 1-2 weeks. 

So I don't see the evidence that this will be stopped by warmer weather.

(Note: this also may affect the argument regarding why CA/TX are doing well and NY/NJ/MI/IL are doing so much worse... I'm not sure we can look to weather as the answer.)

MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2825 on: April 24, 2020, 03:53:09 PM »
Sunlight supposedly
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2826 on: April 24, 2020, 03:58:46 PM »
Sunlight supposedly
Problem is that UV may kill it on surfaces (UV from the sun kills a lot of things), but probably isn't fast-acting enough to control it regarding actual suspended droplets in the air. 

But... I guess this means they can re-open all the tanning salons!

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2827 on: April 24, 2020, 04:01:28 PM »
Sunlight supposedly
this is my understanding
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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