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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
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847badgerfan · « **Reply #1008 on:** April 02, 2020, 11:10:53 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 10:57:59 AM

I haven't been to Europe since 1989. Back then I thought the same thing but back then smoking was MUCH more prevalent here as well. How long has it been since you were in Italy?

I'm just curious because if they are anything like the US then I would guess that if your information is 10 years old it is worthless. I don't know, just guessing.

9 months. They are not like here. Every table has an ash tray on it.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #1009 on:** April 02, 2020, 11:11:29 AM »

Quote from: bayareabadger on April 02, 2020, 10:50:54 AM

I saw the underlying conditions part, not the dead in the next year part. I wish there was a list of such underlying conditions, just because lots of people live with things that could be considered underlying conditions, some that are mostly manageable but for such a situation.

I get what you are saying but I'll give you two examples:

First, the 85 year old that I mentioned above. I know he had at least two prior cancer episodes. I don't know all of his health information. I keyed what I knew and some decent guesses into John Hancock's Life Expectancy Calculator and got "86 years" as his life expectancy. That is one year older than the 85 that he was when he got COVID-19. Ie, COVID cost him ~1 year of life.

Second, my dad. My dad is 79. He has hearth disease (multiple prior attacks, multiple stents, etc) and he has advanced dementia. I hope COVID-19 doesn't get him. I have he and my mom staying in their house and I'm dropping off groceries and prescriptions for them. I'm doing everything I can to keep them alive. That said, if COVID-19 does get my dad, it isn't going to take, actuarially, more than a year or two away from him. His age and co-morbidity factors realistically have already set that in stone.

A note on statistics:
On a one-to-one basis this is all poppycock. In the absence of COVID-19 Chuck (the 85 year old I know who died of COVID-19) might have lived to 100 or he might have died of heart failure today instead of COVID-19 four days ago. Same for my dad. If he avoids COVID-19 he might die tomorrow or live to 100. On an individual basis we can't know. However, on a large-scale we can predict these things very accurately. If you group together 100 or 1,000 or 10,000 people in similar situations to Chuck or in similar situations to my dad you can predict with VERY high accuracy that:

x% will die within six months and
y% will die in 6-12 months and
z% will die in 1-2 years and
a% will die in 2-4 years and
b% will die in 4-6 years and
c% will die in 6-10 years and
d % will live more than 10 years

bayareabadger · « **Reply #1010 on:** April 02, 2020, 11:13:32 AM »

Quote from: FearlessF on April 02, 2020, 11:10:47 AM

I haven't followed this very closely but do we know with any certainty the source of this virus?

was it definitely from a "wet market"? Was it from eating bats?

can we even pin point it's origin to China?

some folks think the Spanish flu from 1918 was originated in Kansas

A. I think they pinpointed it to animals (bird or bats) that crapped on the ground. Pigs eat the crap. People eat the pigs.

B. The Spanish flu was called that because Spain was the only country not pretending it wasn't happening because they were not at war and not censoring newspapers.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #1011 on:** April 02, 2020, 11:13:49 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on April 02, 2020, 11:10:53 AM

9 months. They are not like here. Every table has an ash tray on it.

Ok, just curious. I hope you understood my question as genuine curiosity rather than opposition.

FearlessF · « **Reply #1012 on:** April 02, 2020, 11:15:00 AM »

I was sick with a respiratory illness way back in October.

I rarely go to the doctor for anything, but had a trip planned to the Husker/gopher game in Minneapolis and thought antibiotics might help.

I was checked for flu and strep, all tests came back negative. Was told it was probably a virus and would have to run it's course.

I felt crappy while in Minneapolis that weekend, but survived the trip.

I'm hoping it was Covid and I'm over it, but not sure the virus was here in October. Obviously I'm not a world traveler.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #1013 on:** April 02, 2020, 11:15:26 AM »

At this point I believe we still don't know whether having contracted and survived COVID-19 confers immunity, or for how long.

So while "getting better" is obviously more fortunate than the alternative, it's unclear whether that protects at all against reinfection.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #1014 on:** April 02, 2020, 11:15:41 AM »

Quote from: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 11:00:36 AM

And if you’ve ever been to Italy, you’d know Italy is also like the oldest country in the world.

There are more old ass people in Italy than just about anywhere I’ve ever been. And they don’t stay in the home- they get out and about in public and around people.

And actually I think I read that Italy had the 2nd highest % of people 65+ in their population. Only Japan has an older population than Italy.

Yep, Italy is an older population (like Florida, kinda). They are also very social and touchy and kissy people, in general. Even when they started their shutdown, people were gathering in piazzas. It's what they do. Since they've gone to patrolling, people are staying home, for real.

Germany has very strict rules. I talked to my buddy on what's app the other day and he said only one person is allowed to leave the house for groceries (and beer) at a time. The stores can only have 2 customers at a time (they don't have Kroger/Publix type stores there). Germany is doing VERY well with this thing, by the way. Of course, they have a robust healthcare system, like ours and maybe even better, as opposed to state-run healthcare systems in Italy, Spain, etc.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #1015 on:** April 02, 2020, 11:16:40 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 11:13:49 AM

Ok, just curious. I hope you understood my question as genuine curiosity rather than opposition.

For sure. I know you're not like that.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #1016 on:** April 02, 2020, 11:17:20 AM »

Quote from: bayareabadger on April 02, 2020, 11:13:32 AM

A. I think they pinpointed it to animals (bird or bats) that crapped on the ground. Pigs eat the crap. People eat the pigs.

B. The Spanish flu was called that because Spain was the only country not pretending it wasn't happening because they were not at war and not censoring newspapers.

A. Wait, I thought stomach acid would kill it, no? If you ate infected pig wouldn't that not transfer because either:

Cooking the pig would kill it, or
Your stomach acid would kill it, or
both?

B. I always thought it was funny that it was called the "Spanish Flu" because my understanding is that it originated in Turkey and the Spanish just basically got blamed for it.

Mdot21 · « **Reply #1017 on:** April 02, 2020, 11:19:19 AM »

Quote from: FearlessF on April 02, 2020, 11:10:47 AM

I haven't followed this very closely but do we know with any certainty the source of this virus?

was it definitely from a "wet market"? Was it from eating bats?

can we even pin point it's origin to China?

some folks think the Spanish flu from 1918 was originated in Kansas

It came from China. It originated in bats.

FearlessF · « **Reply #1018 on:** April 02, 2020, 11:20:38 AM »

Guano

847badgerfan · « **Reply #1019 on:** April 02, 2020, 11:22:02 AM »

Quote from: Mdot21 on April 02, 2020, 11:19:19 AM

It came from China. It originated in bats.

Or in a lab.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #1020 on:** April 02, 2020, 11:22:29 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on April 02, 2020, 11:17:20 AM

A. Wait, I thought stomach acid would kill it, no? If you ate infected pig wouldn't that not transfer because either:
Cooking the pig would kill it, or
Your stomach acid would kill it, or
both?

My understanding is that's largely correct. The infection pathway that would occur through ingestion is much lower likelihood than through a respiratory pathway.

But think of it another way... The virus is on/in a piece of pork. Someone purchases the pork, takes it home, and while preparing the pork, touches their nose or eyes. That would be infection through a respiratory (mucus membrane) pathway even though eating the cooked pork may not have had anything to do with it.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #1021 on:** April 02, 2020, 11:22:42 AM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 02, 2020, 11:15:26 AM

At this point I believe we still don't know whether having contracted and survived COVID-19 confers immunity, or for how long.

So while "getting better" is obviously more fortunate than the alternative, it's unclear whether that protects at all against reinfection.

From what I understand, a couple of things:

One problem with this thing is that it is TOTALLY different from the typical "Flu" virus. All of us older than toddlers have some built-up immunity to the Flu. Now there are different strains of flu and that is why we still get sick but part of the reason that the death rate is fairly low is that we do have some built-up immunity to the flu even if we aren't completely immune to the particular strain in question.

My understanding is that the reason this is being called "Novel" coronavirus is that it is new to us entirely. It isn't just a different strain of the usual Flu, this is a totally different virus that we have no built-up immunity to at all. There are probably already multiple strains of this thing but any survivor of any strain would have at least some built-up residual immunity to other strains.

I'm not a doctor and that is just from what I've read and my understanding of it. Also, as always, remember that Abraham Lincoln said to not believe everything you read on the internet.

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

847badgerfan

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

medinabuckeye1

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

bayareabadger

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medinabuckeye1

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FearlessF

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betarhoalphadelta

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847badgerfan

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847badgerfan

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medinabuckeye1

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Mdot21

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FearlessF

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847badgerfan

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betarhoalphadelta

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medinabuckeye1

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