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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #994 on: April 02, 2020, 10:23:21 AM »
what is the actual fatality rate? I believe they are saying it’s under 2% in the US.

But how many millions of people have been exposed to this thing and had little to no symptoms and never got tested. There was a study done by a European country I think it was Sweden or something that suggests that nearly 50% of the people who contract this virus don’t even get sick.
It's a hard question to answer. Often we can only know the "case fatality rate", i.e. the rate of confirmed cases to the number of deaths. That's not the true mortality rate, because it doesn't include mild or asymptomatic cases. 

From everything I've been reading, actual mortality rate is closer to 1.2% according to best estimates. 

I've seen a lot of people trying to compare this to the flu or to H1N1. This thing appears to have far a higher true mortality rate than either, and may be more transmissible to boot. Bad combination...


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I think a lot of this hysteria is driven by the media and by people that want to take down Trump. This virus is terrible don’t get me wrong, any amount of people dying is just sad, but I honestly don’t believe it’s as bad as “they” say it is. Millions and millions of people aren’t going to die from this. And millions and millions wouldn’t have died even if they didn’t lock everything down.
Italy went on lockdown long before anywhere in the US did so. Basically all of Europe has done the same. Are they shutting down their own economies just to take down Trump?

Plus, anyone trying to take down Trump should understand that one thing that tends to galvanize support around whatever leader is currently in the White House is a true crisis. Whether it's 9/11, or a war, or a pandemic. His approval numbers have improved, and even the rating of how he's handling COVID-19 is apparently a 60% approval. It's a psychological thing. He's POTUS, and openly rooting against him right now looks like you're rooting for him to fail in handling COVID-19, which means that you're rooting for the virus over him. 

Maybe the much simpler answer is that politicians all around the world listened to their health experts who said "get your head out of your rear and take action, becuase this sh!t is the real deal."

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #995 on: April 02, 2020, 10:25:52 AM »
There is also an actuarial question to consider on the fatality rate issue.  

First let me acknowledge that all deaths are sad, I'm not disputing that.  That said, if a 10 year old dies of COVID-19 that deprives them, actuarially, of of somewhere around 70 years of life.  If an 85 year old with extensive co-morbidity factors dies, that deprives them of ~1 year of life.  

Both are sad, but the 10 year old is a much bigger cost in terms of life lost because that cost ~70 years of life vs ~1 year.  

I don't know how this is actually working.  We keep being told that 60+ or 65+ are high risk.  Anecdotally, the 85 year old in my example above wasn't hypothetical.  He was a guy who I have known my entire life who would have turned 86 yesterday but he died on Sunday of COVID-19.  

His death is sad, no doubt.  That said, his death of COVID-19 probably deprived him of ~1 year of life given his age and co-morbidity factors.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #996 on: April 02, 2020, 10:32:29 AM »
Anecdotally, the 85 year old in my example above wasn't hypothetical.  He was a guy who I have known my entire life who would have turned 86 yesterday but he died on Sunday of COVID-19. 
Just to tie this thread back to CFB and share this with the group:

The guy I know who died of COVID-19 was the Superintendent of my County's Career Center (JVS).  He retired many years ago.  I knew him because he was in a Service Club with me and before that because he knew my grandmother and parents.  

Here is my fondest memory of him:
My brother and I went to Tempe, Arizona for the NC game against Miami back in 2003 ('02 season).  We had no idea that Chuck and his wife Sue were also in Tempe.  As my brother and I were walking down the street a couple of blocks from Sun Devil Stadium I heard someone yell my name.  I turned and looked and it was Chuck.  That was ~17 years ago so he would have been ~68.  He and his wife were in Tempe for the game.  They were HUGE Ohio State fans and both were graduates of Ohio State.  Chuck and Sue were eating on the restaurant's outdoor patio and saw us so they yelled and came over and chatted with us for a few minutes.  Anyway, great guy and a very sad loss.  

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #997 on: April 02, 2020, 10:37:14 AM »
There is also an actuarial question to consider on the fatality rate issue. 

First let me acknowledge that all deaths are sad, I'm not disputing that.  That said, if a 10 year old dies of COVID-19 that deprives them, actuarially, of of somewhere around 70 years of life.  If an 85 year old with extensive co-morbidity factors dies, that deprives them of ~1 year of life. 

Both are sad, but the 10 year old is a much bigger cost in terms of life lost because that cost ~70 years of life vs ~1 year. 

I don't know how this is actually working.  We keep being told that 60+ or 65+ are high risk.  Anecdotally, the 85 year old in my example above wasn't hypothetical.  He was a guy who I have known my entire life who would have turned 86 yesterday but he died on Sunday of COVID-19. 

His death is sad, no doubt.  That said, his death of COVID-19 probably deprived him of ~1 year of life given his age and co-morbidity factors. 

A report from Italy that I read a few days ago, suggested that a lot of the deaths from COVID19, would have ended in death by the end of the year anyway, based on their underlying conditions.

That's one of the factors that will need to be considered as well, if government leaders believe they want to extend the quarantines much further than they already have.

It's an ugly discussion for sure.  They're ALL ugly discussions at this point.

Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #998 on: April 02, 2020, 10:40:02 AM »
this is a piece on the wet markets in China from 60 Minutes Australia....don’t watch if you’ve got a weak stomach...


https://youtu.be/Y7nZ4mw4mXw

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #999 on: April 02, 2020, 10:41:56 AM »
They're already reopening in China at this very moment.
Yeah, but apparently their version of "reopening" is more stringent than our version of "lockdown"...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-revs-its-engine-to-move-past-coronavirus-but-its-stuck-in-second-gear/2020/03/31/13c81b20-7230-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html

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People are allowed out of their residential complexes only if they have a return-to-work pass issued by their employer, and only if the government-issued health code on their cellphone glows green — not orange or red — to show that they are healthy and cleared for travel. Residents report that some complexes deemed infection-free have quietly lost that status, without explanation.

In the malls that opened this week, people must stand five feet apart on escalators, and clothes that customers have tried on must be sprayed with disinfectant. Subway passengers must wear masks and sit two seats apart; footage on state media showed near-deserted cars and stations.
China's doing a lot wrong here, but I think it's not clear to say they're "reopening" in the sense it would mean to most of us. 

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1000 on: April 02, 2020, 10:43:21 AM »
Yeah, but apparently their version of "reopening" is more stringent than our version of "lockdown"...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-revs-its-engine-to-move-past-coronavirus-but-its-stuck-in-second-gear/2020/03/31/13c81b20-7230-11ea-ad9b-254ec99993bc_story.html
China's doing a lot wrong here, but I think it's not clear to say they're "reopening" in the sense it would mean to most of us.

I'm speaking specifically on the wet markets reopening.

bayareabadger

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1001 on: April 02, 2020, 10:46:19 AM »

1. All I know is, I was sicker than a dog for almost two weeks in the middle of January. Never in my life got that sick from a regular flu. I think it’s possible that I may have already had this thing already and got better. I can guarantee you this thing was circulating in the US well before March.

2. So far there have been 5,000 deaths in the US. This is a country close to 350 million people if you’re including illegals. We can’t shut down the entire country and risk going into a depression over a disease that quiet honestly just isn’t that deadly. If it was a disease like Ebola that had a fatality rate of 60% or something insane like that- sure- shut the shit down.

3. I think a lot of this hysteria is driven by the media and by people that want to take down Trump. This virus is terrible don’t get me wrong, any amount of people dying is just sad, but I honestly don’t believe it’s as bad as “they” say it is. Millions and millions of people aren’t going to die from this. And millions and millions wouldn’t have died even if they didn’t lock everything down.
I'll address these by the numbers
1. I've seen all sort of people saying, I felt like crap at some point this winter, very possible that was this. And while it is, lots of things are possible. I might have the start of tumors forming in my body. My shoulder hurts, so it's possible I have the start of a torn rotator cuff. But I'm not going to act as if those things are the case. (Fortunately a test for that may be coming)

2. The problem with the "so far" thing is just that. It's so far. And we've not hit any real hospital issues yet. God willing it stays that way, but it just a massive unknown. I was talking to someone like two weeks ago who wondered the same thing, pointing to Italy. In less than two weeks, their numbers doubled. Now a lot of that is testing, but just sticking with the data we have right now has holes.

3. Are you referring to the media and such political people as one group or two? From what I've read, it's a disaster financial for media, as advertising is the first cut in hard times. (there was also plenty of media saying it wouldn't be bad, but that's another talk). Anyway, if you believe the ... uh, scientists, they projected several million would die. Maybe they're wrong, but they're at worst, a more informed wrong than an "honest belief" of someone who very much wants it to not be that bad. 

bayareabadger

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1002 on: April 02, 2020, 10:50:54 AM »
A report from Italy that I read a few days ago, suggested that a lot of the deaths from COVID19, would have ended in death by the end of the year anyway, based on their underlying conditions.

That's one of the factors that will need to be considered as well, if government leaders believe they want to extend the quarantines much further than they already have.

It's an ugly discussion for sure.  They're ALL ugly discussions at this point.
I saw the underlying conditions part, not the dead in the next year part. I wish there was a list of such underlying conditions, just because lots of people live with things that could be considered underlying conditions, some that are mostly manageable but for such a situation. 

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1003 on: April 02, 2020, 10:54:23 AM »
If you've ever been to Italy, you'd know that almost everyone is a chain smoker. If I had to guess, I'd call it 75 percent being heavy smokers.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1004 on: April 02, 2020, 10:57:59 AM »
If you've ever been to Italy, you'd know that almost everyone is a chain smoker. If I had to guess, I'd call it 75 percent being heavy smokers.
I haven't been to Europe since 1989.  Back then I thought the same thing but back then smoking was MUCH more prevalent here as well.  How long has it been since you were in Italy?  

I'm just curious because if they are anything like the US then I would guess that if your information is 10 years old it is worthless.  I don't know, just guessing.  

Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1005 on: April 02, 2020, 11:00:36 AM »
If you've ever been to Italy, you'd know that almost everyone is a chain smoker. If I had to guess, I'd call it 75 percent being heavy smokers.
And if you’ve ever been to Italy, you’d know Italy is also like the oldest country in the world. 

There are more old ass people in Italy than just about anywhere I’ve ever been. And they don’t stay in the home- they get out and about in public and around people.

And actually I think I read that Italy had the 2nd highest % of people 65+ in their population. Only Japan has an older population than Italy.

MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1006 on: April 02, 2020, 11:08:40 AM »
All I know is, I was sicker than a dog for almost two weeks in the middle of January. Never in my life got that sick from a regular flu. I think it’s possible that I may have already had this thing already and got better. I can guarantee you this thing was circulating in the US well before March.
If that's the case in a strange way you are fortunate then
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1007 on: April 02, 2020, 11:10:47 AM »
I haven't followed this very closely but do we know with any certainty the source of this virus?

was it definitely from a "wet market"?  Was it from eating bats?

can we even pin point it's origin to China?

some folks think the Spanish flu from 1918 was originated in Kansas
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