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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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bayareabadger

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #966 on: April 01, 2020, 08:51:26 PM »
Since we're talking data, I'm interested in presentation. 

I'm looking at a chart of daily deaths. It jumped from 588 to 912 to 1,094 the past three days. This doesn't necessarily mean anything other than us knowing more. It wouldn't make sense to hold back on that data, but it obviously induces certain feelings presented that way (it's bad, but there's a range of how bad). 

I wonder if there's a more context-ed way to present it. 

MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #967 on: April 01, 2020, 09:15:23 PM »
I was thinking of the dot com boom of the late 90s and the mortgage boom of the mid-2000s as options... Financial bubbles are often propped up by people who claim "it's different this time" and have plausible-sounding rationale for why it's actually different this time...

The human capability for self-deception is something to behold...
Misread it as phase - bit of a difference
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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #968 on: April 01, 2020, 09:18:41 PM »
Looking at the numbers across the globe...

Norway and Sweden are an interesting case. So both countries might be interesting to watch to see how different policies are affecting the results.

Who ever has the most Lutefisk will prevail or pickled herring
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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #969 on: April 01, 2020, 09:22:45 PM »
A desperate authoritarian backed into a corner? They might not care.
So,New Yorkers
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ELA

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #970 on: April 02, 2020, 12:03:01 AM »
No British Open

MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #971 on: April 02, 2020, 07:39:43 AM »
I'll admit it is a tad bit morbid w/o sports but the not having pools/squares or even a side bet to spice events up is a grind.As long as it's a healthy grind
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #972 on: April 02, 2020, 08:40:43 AM »
No British Open
They canceled the tennis too.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #973 on: April 02, 2020, 09:02:18 AM »
IF this thing peaks in mid-April (which obviously is a ????), the current trend is terrible.  The US had 1,000 yesterday, if that doubles each day to the 15th and then does the reverse going down, we'd have 2,000 on the 3rd and so on.  We hit 1.6 million on the 15th.

Hopefully it doesn't get anywhere remotely near that.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #974 on: April 02, 2020, 09:09:43 AM »
IF this thing peaks in mid-April (which obviously is a ????), the current trend is terrible.  The US had 1,000 yesterday, if that doubles each day to the 15th and then does the reverse going down, we'd have 2,000 on the 3rd and so on.  We hit 1.6 million on the 15th.

Hopefully it doesn't get anywhere remotely near that.

I don't think it's currently doubling every day, is it?  Doubling rate is still between 2-3 days last I looked.  I mean, it's still bad, but not quite as bad.


847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #975 on: April 02, 2020, 09:12:54 AM »
I don't think it's currently doubling every day, is it?  Doubling rate is still between 2-3 days last I looked.  I mean, it's still bad, but not quite as bad.


Correct.
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #976 on: April 02, 2020, 09:16:58 AM »
Also, we're now on day 21 since a large part of the country began serious social distancing efforts, large gatherings were canceled and then prohibited, etc.  As a nation, we haven't been perfect by any means, but there's also no doubt that a very large amount of contact has been eliminated.

So IF our efforts are going to have any effect on the spread of the virus, we should start seeing those death rates bending down in the next 1-7 days, since the infection---> death timing seems to be around 3-4 weeks. 

If we don't see a large bend downward over the next week, well, it means our efforts aren't helping.  And THAT means, there's no point in continuing them.


847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #977 on: April 02, 2020, 09:27:38 AM »
I don't know about that UTee. I think we have only started to see the beginning of the spring break stupidity. Hell, as of LAST WEEKEND there were still some crowded beaches in Florida.


https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1243990179557359616
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #978 on: April 02, 2020, 09:28:21 AM »
For the record, Duval County is Jacksonville. St. John's is just South.
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #979 on: April 02, 2020, 09:42:41 AM »
Florida is likely to be a shitshow.  New York already is.

The nation as a whole, is doing better than the hot spots.

Take a look at California-- data seems pretty good there, compared to the population and population density.  I'd expect worse, and so far it's not happening.  That's a great sign.

 

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