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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
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Kris60 · « **Reply #8372 on:** August 31, 2020, 10:53:26 PM »

Quote from: GopherRock on August 31, 2020, 10:43:36 PM

Kris, I think your explanation of the stutter-stepping in West Virginia is why the Minnesota high school association pushed back HS football to the springtime. Starting and stopping the season would ultimately be more harm than good.

Hmm. I would say that is debatable. It definitely isn’t ideal but getting in 6 or 7 games is better than none, imo.

I’m just not taking seriously any proposal that pushes football into the spring. To me, that is just another way of saying, “Until there is a vaccine we aren’t playing.” I think deferring to the spring is just kicking the can down the road.

There are just too many reasons football in the spring doesn’t make sense.

Hawkinole · « **Reply #8373 on:** September 01, 2020, 12:24:54 AM »

Quote from: FearlessF on August 31, 2020, 09:40:17 PM

Iowa HS football started last Friday night

maybe part of the reason besides college kids for the uptick

This plus school reopenings. There are lots of kids riding school buses. I heard 9 teachers are in quarantine within the first week of school. Means they were exposed to a positive COVID-19 case, not necessarily that the teacher tested positive. We do have high school football. I didn't go to the home game, but could see that the visitor stands were filled with as many fans as usual for visitors, from Dubuque Wahlert, Friday night. I wouldn't be afraid to go to the game -- I would stand outside the fence in the end zone if I went, not in the stands, in my usual position. I haven't been going the past 5-years.
In our rural county the daily confirmed cases average 3-4x what they were 6-weeks ago, and sometimes 6 or 7x as many. We have gone from 1-2 per day to 7-14 per day.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #8374 on:** September 01, 2020, 01:51:03 AM »

just as a public service I cut a song for ya

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtjceaknzHQ

Cincydawg · « **Reply #8375 on:** September 01, 2020, 07:48:22 AM »

So, in March, most countries closed down and case rate dropped. Now most are reopening, most states here already did, and every one has experienced a rise in cases, and then a peak and decline (Europe has not yet hit the decline phase). This is not at an infection rate anywhere close to typical herd immunity, technically. Even Sweden didn't get there unless we're misreading the number of asymptomatic folks who were undiagnosed by a large factor.

Here in HA we're continuing to drop even as my local assessment of mask wearing suggests we're not doing a very good job here.

I keep saying "we" are missing something big in this. And then there is Sweden. I doubt anyone could have expected this comparison to be this way.

Sweden 574 deaths per million, 8,346 cases per million diagnosed, 1 million tests

Georgia 530 deaths per million, 25,000 cases per million, 2.6 million tests

Georgia has a 30% African American population, no socialized medicine, and more poor folks than Sweden. Three times as many cases and fewer deaths (slightly).

Reopened partially April 23, the earliest of any state that closed down.

MaximumSam · « **Reply #8376 on:** September 01, 2020, 08:01:08 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 07:48:22 AM

So, in March, most countries closed down and case rate dropped. Now most are reopening, most states here already did, and every one has experienced a rise in cases, and then a peak and decline (Europe has not yet hit the decline phase). This is not at an infection rate anywhere close to typical herd immunity, technically. Even Sweden didn't get there unless we're misreading the number of asymptomatic folks who were undiagnosed by a large factor.

Here in HA we're continuing to drop even as my local assessment of mask wearing suggests we're not doing a very good job here.

I keep saying "we" are missing something big in this. And then there is Sweden. I doubt anyone could have expected this comparison to be this way.

Sweden 574 deaths per million, 8,346 cases per million diagnosed, 1 million tests

Georgia 530 deaths per million, 25,000 cases per million, 2.6 million tests

Georgia has a 30% African American population, no socialized medicine, and more poor folks than Sweden. Three times as many cases and fewer deaths (slightly).

Reopened partially April 23, the earliest of any state that closed down.

I don't know that it's wildly complicated - masks, social distancing, summer - all lead to poor conditions for the virus to transmit which means the herd immunity threshold can be low. Change those factors and it goes up.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #8377 on:** September 01, 2020, 08:05:05 AM »

Quote from: MaximumSam on September 01, 2020, 08:01:08 AM

I don't know that it's wildly complicated - masks, social distancing, summer - all lead to poor conditions for the virus to transmit which means the herd immunity threshold can be low. Change those factors and it goes up.

So, it's still summer in Italy and France, why are their numbers going back up? Why did Sweden drop dramatically? Why did Georgia go up sharply in June and July in the middle of summer? Why did Sweden have more deaths with fewer diagnosed cases than Georgia?

Herd immunity obviously cannot be impacted by wearing masks or summer or social distancing longer term. Those things impact R naught but not HI. Only two things impact HI.

MaximumSam · « **Reply #8378 on:** September 01, 2020, 09:00:48 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 08:05:05 AM

So, it's still summer in Italy and France, why are their numbers going back up? Why did Sweden drop dramatically? Why did Georgia go up sharply in June and July in the middle of summer? Why did Sweden have more deaths with fewer diagnosed cases than Georgia?

Herd immunity obviously cannot be impacted by wearing masks or summer or social distancing longer term. Those things impact R naught but not HI. Only two things impact HI.

What I mean is - herd immunity is just one factor that affects the inflection point on the disease rising or falling. So while with no other factors affecting the disease, the herd immunity point may be 60%. But with other factors, i.e. social distancing, that percentage could drop to, say, 20%, because there are other factors present that reduce transmission. If I could figure out how to import google's coronavirus graphs here it would be a lot easier to show what I mean.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #8379 on:** September 01, 2020, 09:07:53 AM »

In other words, a disease vector can have several components. Thanks for that.

My issue is melding those various components into a "theory" that explains the data, as opposed to just hand waving and claiming it all makes sense, somehow, vaguely.

I've been saying for some time we're missing something in all of this, something important.

MaximumSam · « **Reply #8380 on:** September 01, 2020, 09:10:26 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 09:07:53 AM

In other words, a disease vector can have several components. Thanks for that.

My issue is melding those various components into a "theory" that explains the data, as opposed to just hand waving and claiming it all makes sense, somehow, vaguely.

I've been saying for some time we're missing something in all of this, something important.

I just don't think there is. I haven't seen anything about this virus that is much different than any other similar one.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #8381 on:** September 01, 2020, 09:21:57 AM »

What similar one? I don't think that exists. This is a weird one.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #8382 on:** September 01, 2020, 09:22:02 AM »

This virus has a rather lengthy latency period. That is singular.

This virus has apparently quite a few asymptomatic individuals. That is unusual.

This virus appears to be more contagious than normal.

This virus often causes a cytokine explosion, which is unusual in corona virii.

This virus is apparently zoonotic, which isn't that unusual of course, but is not common either.

MaximumSam · « **Reply #8383 on:** September 01, 2020, 09:34:39 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 01, 2020, 09:21:57 AM

What similar one? I don't think that exists. This is a weird one.

Mostly compared to common colds and flus. It is a respiratory illness. Obviously, it seems to be spreading more quickly than others, likely due to it's novel nature, and it had harsher effects on some people, though not a way particularly unexpected.

MaximumSam · « **Reply #8384 on:** September 01, 2020, 09:51:52 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 09:22:02 AM

This virus has a rather lengthy latency period. That is singular.

This virus has apparently quite a few asymptomatic individuals. That is unusual.

This virus appears to be more contagious than normal.

This virus often causes a cytokine explosion, which is unusual in corona virii.

This virus is apparently zoonotic, which isn't that unusual of course, but is not common either.

1. The period between infection and symptoms is somewhat longer than 2-3 days for the cold and 1-4 days for the flu. Is this because the body doesn't necessarily recognize COVID - which is still being studied and thus gets us a wide range of 2-14 days, with a median of 4-5 days. I don't know that this is particularly novel, especially with newer diseases.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html

2. Asymptomatics are something that I didn't know much about when this started and sounded scary. However, the asymptomatic rate is not unusual - it is very similar to the flu.

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1284513429391323137?s=20

3. I agree that the virus is more contagious than normal.

4. I'm not sure that is something we can say right now. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767939

5. Agree

FearlessF · « **Reply #8385 on:** September 01, 2020, 12:21:03 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on September 01, 2020, 07:48:22 AM

So, in March, most countries closed down and case rate dropped. Now most are reopening, most states here already did, and every one has experienced a rise in cases, and then a peak and decline (Europe has not yet hit the decline phase). This is not at an infection rate anywhere close to typical herd immunity, technically. Even Sweden didn't get there unless we're misreading the number of asymptomatic folks who were undiagnosed by a large factor.

Here in HA we're continuing to drop even as my local assessment of mask wearing suggests we're not doing a very good job here.

I keep saying "we" are missing something big in this. And then there is Sweden. I doubt anyone could have expected this comparison to be this way.

Sweden 574 deaths per million, 8,346 cases per million diagnosed, 1 million tests

Georgia 530 deaths per million, 25,000 cases per million, 2.6 million tests

Georgia has a 30% African American population, no socialized medicine, and more poor folks than Sweden. Three times as many cases and fewer deaths (slightly).

Reopened partially April 23, the earliest of any state that closed down.

in other words, be like Georgia, not like Sweden

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

Kris60

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Hawkinole

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longhorn320

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Cincydawg

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MaximumSam

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Cincydawg

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MaximumSam

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Cincydawg

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MaximumSam

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847badgerfan

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Cincydawg

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MaximumSam

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MaximumSam

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FearlessF

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