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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7742 on: August 03, 2020, 04:36:22 PM »
I think my conjecture is pretty wild, and it's possible it's more or less correct.

If someone can explain Sweden otherwise, I'd like to hear it.  They didn't change policy or how people behaved.

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7743 on: August 03, 2020, 04:59:23 PM »
LINCOLN, Neb — Nebraska Governor Pete Ricketts held strong on his decision not to issue a statewide mask ordinance today during a press briefing this Monday morning.

This comes after several legal disputes between county officials and the governor's office surrounding what type of mandates would be allowed.

The governor claims that local governments do not have the authority to enact a mask mandate without approval from his administration.

A mandate has gone into place in Lancaster county after changes to the initial directed health measure were made, but officials have backed down from a mask mandate in Douglas county after a response from the governor's office.


"I don't want to make it a crime, which is what it is if you pass an ordinance or something like that you are now making it a crime that somebody's not wearing their mask, that heavy-handed government is not, I believe the best approach to be able to adopt using masks as part of their everyday life" stated Governor Ricketts.
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7744 on: August 03, 2020, 05:01:25 PM »
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

bwarbiany

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7745 on: August 03, 2020, 05:15:32 PM »
Those countries may not have hit "herd immunity" yet, that's the point.  How do you explain Sweden?  I know France has still considerable restrictions and mask wearing etc.  Can this be explained by changed in human behaviors in those states above?

I doubt it.

Something else is happening, I think.

This thing starts, and looks bad, so we shut down and suppress it, but then start to reopen and it comes back in full force.  And then, it slows down again, as with Sweden.  No real changes in human behaviors of consequence.

I guess you could claim the protests largely dissipated.

Area under the curve ...?
I explain it primarily with behavior. Whether mandated or not, people DO respond to these case numbers by changing their behavior. 

That's where Sweden came in. If they hadn't changed their behavior, their economy would have been largely unaffected. But it wasn't unaffected. They didn't forcibly lock down, but that doesn't mean they didn't voluntarily adapt. 

People get complacent and start thinking "it's going away" so they get lax in their behavior, and then it spikes again and they say "oh, I guess it's still around." 

Again these are all aggregates. This thing might have a R0 of 2.5-3.0 if no mitigating behaviors are undertaken, but right now our behavior has it down closer to 1. When we get lax, it goes above 1, when we tighten, it drops below. 

But as I said, anywhere you get a cluster of people close together, it spirals out QUICKLY in that cluster. That wouldn't be the case if we had inherent immunity. 

I don't think it's all too wild. There are some pretty credible sources coming up with these things, and then you have Sweden, and even Wisconsin.

Cases in Wisconsin have gone up by 60% over the past month, but testing has also gone way up in this period.

Positivity is around 5 percent here still.
What I think is unfounded conjecture is the idea that you threw out that 50% of people have had it, or that Cincy throws out that we have some sort of completely unknown inherent immunity in society that no scientist to date has identified. 

To put it simply, the MUCH easier explanation is that mitigation has been primarily behavioral. This is even more strongly justified when you see that places/situations where the behavioral changes either can't or aren't continuing, you get spikes and clusters, which wouldn't happen if there was inherent immunity.

bwarbiany

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7746 on: August 03, 2020, 05:21:27 PM »
I think my conjecture is pretty wild, and it's possible it's more or less correct.

If someone can explain Sweden otherwise, I'd like to hear it.  They didn't change policy or how people behaved.
Policy != Behavior

https://www.newsweek.com/sweden-covid-19-death-rate-lower-spain-italy-uk-despite-never-having-lockdown-1522306


Quote
Anders Tegnell, the chief epidemiologist at Sweden's public health agency, noted last week: "We have cut down on movement in society quite a lot. We have compared how much we travel in Scandinavian countries, and the decrease in travel is the same in Sweden as in neighboring countries," in an interview with UnHerd.

"In many ways the voluntary measures we put in place in Sweden have been just as effective as complete lockdowns in other countries," he added.
They encouraged WFH. They encouraged social distancing. They are claiming [above] that voluntary changes reduced mobility. 

What they didn't do is mandate it, and people are acting like that means nothing changed at all. 

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7747 on: August 03, 2020, 05:31:38 PM »
You don't think it's at all possible that more people have had this than is being reported? 

I've seen estimates of 20-30 times more than reported, by people who know more than me.

The truth is that we don't know, but here's a few thoughts.

Hell, I had it and one would think my wife did, at a minimum, and probably my brother and two close friends. Those 4 very likely cases are not reported. 

And while my wife had it (no symptoms, aside from a cough, which she NEVER has - she's never sick in the 26+ years I've known her), she was still reporting to an office with 10,000 other people in it prior to her retirement. They just changed to a "google" type layout too, getting rid of all of their cubes. 

Oopsies.

Anyway, can you see how this thing might have gone, early on, with mass numbers getting it, mostly without symptoms, or very little, and spread it to more vulnerable people in their families, without knowing anything about it? Schools weren't shut down until what? April?

The whole country travelled on airplanes through mid-March. This thing has been here since November, if not before.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7748 on: August 03, 2020, 05:31:57 PM »
But, they did this from the start, right?  It's not some change in behavior 3-4-5 weeks ago.   The change of COVID rates of infection are astonishing.

The numbers ran up initially quite high, and then went way down.  Why?

Something changed.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7749 on: August 03, 2020, 05:36:46 PM »
But, they did this from the start, right? It's not some change in behavior 3-4-5 weeks ago.  The change of COVID rates of infection are astonishing.

The numbers ran up initially quite high, and then went way down.  Why?

Something changed.
Yes they did.  And following bwar's logic, as people saw the case numbers start coming down, their behavior should actually have become more lax and so it should be getting worse in Sweden as times goes on.

That's what happened here in the USA.  It's what's happening currently in Spain, and other places where it was diminished, and is now flaring up again.



bwarbiany

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7750 on: August 03, 2020, 05:44:43 PM »
You don't think it's at all possible that more people have had this than is being reported?

I've seen estimates of 20-30 times more than reported, by people who know more than me.

The truth is that we don't know, but here's a few thoughts.
Obviously there's a multiplier of true cases to confirmed cases. The horribly bad Santa Clara study said somewhere between 28-55x was the multiplier, but that was widely ridiculed for many [very good] reasons. 

I think the multiplier is probably 5-10x, but starting to come down as testing is so much more available than it was a few months ago. 

I don't think anywhere NEAR half the country has had it. Maybe 15% tops by now is where I'd put the extreme upper bound. 

But, they did this from the start, right?  It's not some change in behavior 3-4-5 weeks ago.  The change of COVID rates of infection are astonishing.

The numbers ran up initially quite high, and then went way down.  Why?

Something changed.
I'm saying that peoples' behavior changed. Not government policy, not mandates, not anything. People, as an aggregate, made some small changes to their behavior because they were alarmed by the rising case rates and that brought down R0. 

Again, it doesn't take much. Hanging out in the backyard with a friend in the heat instead of inside in the A/C because you know outside is a little easier, and greeting without a hug. Skipping that unnecessary restaurant stop when you know you can order takeout. Being just a hair more vigilant about hand sanitizer when you go to the grocery store because you know how the cases are spiking. Avoiding that summer BBQ that you might have gone to before cases were spiking because you're a little more worried. Etc etc etc.

Or more specifically here in the US, a bunch of young people maybe NOT going out to the bar as often--in the places they're still open. Or not going to parties as much. 

These things, writ large over a population, can make a pretty big difference to R0.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7751 on: August 03, 2020, 05:47:36 PM »
My friend in Sweden tells me they had constant behaviors over time, they never at any point "changed" to being more careful, they were careful from the get go.

That is one person of course.

I tend to doubt folks saw bad numbers and tightened up on that overall, I see evidence to the contrary.

And the theory is that folks have immunity/resistance from a similar corona virus in the past in large numbers.

bwarbiany

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7752 on: August 03, 2020, 05:55:54 PM »
Yes they did.  And following bwar's logic, as people saw the case numbers start coming down, their behavior should actually have become more lax and so it should be getting worse in Sweden as times goes on.

That's what happened here in the USA.  It's what's happening currently in Spain, and other places where it was diminished, and is now flaring up again.
If you look at Sweden's graph, some of it is very similar to here. 

They had a run-up in cases just like everywhere else. They never locked down, so they didn't get a huge decrease in daily cases like some places did, but it plateaued. Then they had an explosion that ran for nearly a month, and then since the beginning of July they've had a strong decrease. 

Now, I've argued against post-hoc narrative-building as it relates to sports, but here's a potential timeline/explanation:

  • The initial run-up was like anywhere else, took everyone by surprise. 
  • They pushed for some policies like WFH, locking down nursing homes, etc. The public was still in a bit of a shock with this, and so they were doing their best to maintain social distance.
  • Their plateau in daily case rates went almost 2 months, from early April until late May. The whole time, the world kept asking "did Sweden get it right?" and people grew complacent about all the things they'd been doing. While they never had official lockdowns, I suspect they got quarantine fatigue and thought this wasn't all that big of a deal. They started getting lax in their behavior.
  • When June hit, they saw a rapid spike in cases. New daily case rates doubled over that month. Again, this took everyone by surprise.
  • Due to the surprise, the realized this thing wasn't over and they needed to go back to being vigilant. 
  • They did so, and cases came down.

Sweden has a lot of demographic advantages to help control spread. A lot of WFH opportunity (many were already doing so). A lot of single-person households, and few 3-generation households. A strong social safety net to deal with the economic dislocation of people not going out and spending. 


847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7753 on: August 03, 2020, 05:59:35 PM »
Obviously there's a multiplier of true cases to confirmed cases. The horribly bad Santa Clara study said somewhere between 28-55x was the multiplier, but that was widely ridiculed for many [very good] reasons.

I think the multiplier is probably 5-10x, but starting to come down as testing is so much more available than it was a few months ago.

I don't think anywhere NEAR half the country has had it. Maybe 15% tops by now is where I'd put the extreme upper bound.
I'm saying that peoples' behavior changed. Not government policy, not mandates, not anything. People, as an aggregate, made some small changes to their behavior because they were alarmed by the rising case rates and that brought down R0.
Conjecture?

My one case could have went to hundreds of people, by my wife reporting to work while having it.

There are a lot of examples like me. To know even I had it, I needed an antibody test months later, because we had no tests here in March. Only then did I become a statistic. 3 months later. 

Just think about it, OK?
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7754 on: August 03, 2020, 06:08:17 PM »
If you look at Sweden's graph, some of it is very similar to here.

They had a run-up in cases just like everywhere else. They never locked down, so they didn't get a huge decrease in daily cases like some places did, but it plateaued. Then they had an explosion that ran for nearly a month, and then since the beginning of July they've had a strong decrease.

Now, I've argued against post-hoc narrative-building as it relates to sports, but here's a potential timeline/explanation:

  • The initial run-up was like anywhere else, took everyone by surprise.
  • They pushed for some policies like WFH, locking down nursing homes, etc. The public was still in a bit of a shock with this, and so they were doing their best to maintain social distance.
  • Their plateau in daily case rates went almost 2 months, from early April until late May. The whole time, the world kept asking "did Sweden get it right?" and people grew complacent about all the things they'd been doing. While they never had official lockdowns, I suspect they got quarantine fatigue and thought this wasn't all that big of a deal. They started getting lax in their behavior.
  • When June hit, they saw a rapid spike in cases. New daily case rates doubled over that month. Again, this took everyone by surprise.
  • Due to the surprise, the realized this thing wasn't over and they needed to go back to being vigilant.
  • They did so, and cases came down.

Sweden has a lot of demographic advantages to help control spread. A lot of WFH opportunity (many were already doing so). A lot of single-person households, and few 3-generation households. A strong social safety net to deal with the economic dislocation of people not going out and spending.



Sure,  that's certainly one potential explanation.  Others are being offered and I'm not sure they're significantly less plausible than yours, that's alls I'm sayin'.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #7755 on: August 03, 2020, 06:09:36 PM »
Well, if some places hit herd immunity, we'd expect the case rates to stay low no matter what.

If this is due to better behavior, we'd expect over time it to come back.

 

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