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Topic: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition

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MrNubbz

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #448 on: December 04, 2023, 03:23:05 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on December 04, 2023, 01:04:40 PM
tOSU is missing one extra week of data.  They risked their season one fewer time. They have one fewer win and zero conference championship. Yes, that's enough to drop them behind Alabama.  Of course it is.  It has been this way for the entire 10 years of the CFP.

There was no way they were going to make the top 4, unless both Texas and Alabama lost, and even then they'd still have needed the switcheroo with FSU to get in, so it would just be tOSU getting in "unfairly" over FSU, rather than Alabama.
Umm who are you arguing with? I haven't seen any Buckeye Fans suggest they should be in the CFB POs.Except for the nut jobs but clearly there aren't any of those around here!!!

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rolltidefan

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #449 on: December 04, 2023, 03:23:24 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on December 04, 2023, 03:09:19 PM
Those SOR calculations are really loopy, they're so totally disconnected from SOS.
sos calculations can be really wonky too. can't remember if it was sagarin or connely or massey or who, but about a decade ago one of them routinely had all 10 of the top 10 from the same conference. it rotated between pac and big xii due to the 9 game conf schedule i think, but i'll never buy that all 10 of the top sos are from the same conference.

computer ratings, while consistent and repeatable, are NOT purely objective. the importance of the data going into them is a subjective measure, and thus the results of those measurements will have at least some degree of subjectivity. they benefit is that at least you know the subjectivity prior to seeing the results.
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ELA

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #450 on: December 04, 2023, 03:23:36 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on December 04, 2023, 03:09:19 PM
Those SOR calculations are really loopy, they're so totally disconnected from SOS.
SP+ has Georgia #2, OSU #3, PSU #4, Oregon #5
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utee94

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #451 on: December 04, 2023, 03:25:29 PM »
Quote from: ELA on December 04, 2023, 03:23:36 PM
SP+ has Georgia #2, OSU #3, PSU #4, Oregon #5
I know.  Like I said, wonky. 
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utee94

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #452 on: December 04, 2023, 03:26:54 PM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on December 04, 2023, 03:23:05 PM
Umm who are you arguing with? I haven't seen any Buckeye Fans suggest they should be in the CFB POs.Except for the nut jobs but clearly there aren't any of those around here!!!



Huh?  I didn't say any Buckeye fans were suggesting this.  Don't be so defensive, people will think you're a Texan. ;)

I was responding to SuperMario who was wondering why Alabama got moved ahead of tOSU in the final rankings.
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ELA

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #453 on: December 04, 2023, 03:32:38 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on December 04, 2023, 03:25:29 PM
I know.  Like I said, wonky.
So anti SOR and SP+.  Hate the resume metrics, hate the predictive metrics.  Love the ESPN eyeball metrics?
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Cincydawg

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #454 on: December 04, 2023, 03:39:00 PM »
I figure within 12 games a top team plays, 4-6 of them are basically useless indicators of anything.  Let's say 6, and then the other 6 include 3 teams that could have a fighting chance on a given day, and 3 that are pretty decent teams.  I'm talking about spreads in the first 6 being 25+, the second 3 is around 14, and then the last three are about 7-10.  I'd throw out any data from the first 6 bad teams and focus on the 6 teams with a heartbeat.
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utee94

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #455 on: December 04, 2023, 03:42:31 PM »
Quote from: ELA on December 04, 2023, 03:32:38 PM
So anti SOR and SP+.  Hate the resume metrics, hate the predictive metrics.  Love the ESPN eyeball metrics?
Huh?  Why are you trying to put words into my mouth?  Are you confusing me with someone else?

I've never made any arguments against resume', or strict W/L SOS metrics.

In the context of FBS college football, "predictive" metrics have the inherent problem of a lack of "linked" data.  There are too few data points overall, and too few common data points, for them to hold much meaning.

And on the ESPN eyeball test? Yeah, no. You've never once heard me defend that.

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ELA

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #456 on: December 04, 2023, 03:47:32 PM »
I posted SOR, and you said those are loopy.  So then I posted SP+, and you said "like I said"

IMO, those are the best resume and best predictive metrics, and you didn't like either of them
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SuperMario

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #457 on: December 04, 2023, 03:52:09 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on December 04, 2023, 03:26:54 PM
I was responding to SuperMario who was wondering why Alabama got moved ahead of tOSU in the final rankings.
Nubbz, to give you some context, I was knocking the eye test reasoning of Bama being in. Saying if Bama is simply getting it because of the eye test over FSU that was undefeated and won their conference, why wouldn't OSU be in the talk because of the eye test. Throw out record.. throw out conference championship.. simply "eye test" of being top 4, which is the BS reason being used.. So why wasn't OSU at least in the convo since their only loss was to #1 and their eye test looked stronger to those that watched OSU enough. 

Quote from: SuperMario on December 04, 2023, 12:55:47 PM
Isn't it most odd that in week 11 Ohio State was ranked #1 with eye test, they and Bama end up with 1 loss Bama is in and OSU wasn't even considered? When Osu's 1 loss is against #1?
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rook119

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #458 on: December 04, 2023, 04:03:07 PM »
It really was the easiest selection ever. It didn't require eyeball tests, advanced metrics, some made up stupid formula written down by a blogger or anything.  3 undefeated teams, all w/ decent schedules w/ the 11-1 team winning their conference and beating the other conference winner. 



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utee94

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #459 on: December 04, 2023, 04:05:06 PM »
Quote from: ELA on December 04, 2023, 03:47:32 PM
I posted SOR, and you said those are loopy.  So then I posted SP+, and you said "like I said"

IMO, those are the best resume and best predictive metrics, and you didn't like either of them
Lots of other ways to do SOS and resume'.

Straight SOS via your team's W/L and the W/L of your opponents  (removing FCS of course).

Wins over number of teams with winning records.

Wins over number of teams that are bowl-bound.

All are objective without requiring statistical calculation using a poor data set.
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Mdot21

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #460 on: December 04, 2023, 04:10:34 PM »
Quote from: Honestbuckeye on December 04, 2023, 02:49:56 PM
Nobody knows “best”.   

millions of people thought Georgia and Oregon were the “best” just a few days ago. 

There is no right answer.  Just millions of opinions.  Thats why you need to go by results.  Not prognostication, speculation, point spreads, etc. 
100%. Results on the actual football field in the actual games should matter most. If we only care about point spread Vegas favorites, why even play the god damn games? 
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utee94

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Re: SOC 12/1-12/2 CCG Edition
« Reply #461 on: December 04, 2023, 04:12:42 PM »
So have we decided that the CFP participants WERE selected with the idea of television rating desirability in mind?

Because a week ago I was assured by this message board that the committee was completely disconnected from any motivations associated with television ratings...
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