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The fact that FSU is a 13.5 point dog to UGA tells me they should not be in the CFP.

The fact that FSU is a 13.5 point dog to UGA tells me they should not be in the CFP.

Auburn was a 13.5 dog to Bama.

Oregon was a 10.5 favorite over Washington 

A 2 TD dog wins about 15% of the time, but that hardly  means they are the better team.  It means they aren't.

I personally don't think any team in the CFP should be more than a 7 point dog to any other team.

The fact that FSU is a 13.5 point dog to UGA tells me they should not be in the CFP.

If we are going strictly by Vegas I’m guessing Michigan, Ohio St, Georgia, and Alabama would all be favored on a neutral field over any team in the country.  We could put them in and just call it a day.  Game results should matter.

What was the spread of the TCU-Michigan game last year?

This view doesn't have any context.  The committee ranks teams based on activities and achievements though the most recent week, but not beyond.  Things change from week to week, and several things changed from last week to this one.

So what happened to move Alabama from 8 to 4?

1) tOSU didn't play.  They fell one game behind the rest and they also didn't earn a conference championship, which is specifically listed as one of the criteria considerations to be a CFP team.  tOSU had reached the ceiling of what they were capable of, and the only way they were NOT going to drop, is if Texas and Alabama and Florida State lost.

2) Oregon lost.  2 losses, they're out.  I hope nobody is advocating that Oregon should have remained ahead of Alabama?

3) Alabama beat Georgia and with both of them having the same record, but Alabama having both the H2H win and a conference championship, the Tide moved ahead of Georgia.  Again, both of the bolded are specific criteria that the committee lists as being considered for making the CFP.

So that brings them up to 5, in an obvious and non-controversial way, IMO.

So again, the only controversy, is how did they move from 5, to 4, ahead of Florida State?

And I'd say THAT question has been pretty thoroughly debated.

But it's like we are doing the eye test when it's convenient and listing activities when it's not.

If bama had to play Texas twice like Oregon had to play Washington twice would they not have 2 losses also?

Ohio State only had 1 loss and the structure of the Big 10 not having them in the Championship game is proof that bama is better because they had a win this week and OSU was sitting at home? But OSu's only loss is to #1.. Bama's only loss is to #3.

Bama almost lost to Auburn on a miracle offensive pass interference play. They skate away from Arkansas in a 3 point game. Where's Ohio State's other close game besides the Michigan loss? Notre Dame? At least they're a competent opponent. 

There's plenty of circles to go round and round and what I notice the most, is the entire Bama argument rests on their most recent win and means their eye test is the best, justifying their jump in rankings based on one.. .single ... game.. while ignoring or making excuses for the rest. Sorry, but they should have lost to Auburn and that last play was garbage with Bond pushing off on the defenders helmet.. they struggled with Arkansas, A&M, Auburn..... They won the SEC title game.. that's big, but there's a reason they have been below Oregon Texas for multiple weeks with the same record because they didn't pass the eye test. 

Isn't it most odd that in week 11 Ohio State was ranked #1 with eye test, they and Bama end up with 1 loss Bama is in and OSU wasn't even considered? When Osu's 1 loss is against #1? 

I could write on and on, but as a UM fan.. I'm happy. This isn't a top bama team.. this is a $ bama team and Michigan has an easy path to the championship game.. an overrated bama team. 

But it's like we are doing the eye test when it's convenient and listing activities when it's not.

Yep. Which strangely always seems to benefit Alabama. 

But I shouldn't continue, lest I get labeled a conspiracy theorist or something...

This is the part of the argument I simply can't wrap my head around. Last week they were the 8th best team. They beat Georgia. Big win against the team everyone thought was #1. Upsets happen. But the week before they needed a miracle to beat a very, very mediocre Auburn team. So what backing is there that Bama is one of the best 4 right now besides the Georgia win?

i mean, close calls happen? especially vs rivals. uga struggled vs auburn, mich vs maryland, washington had multiple 1 score games vs bad teams, texas as well. why are those not taken into question when bama's (and fsu's) is?

alabama's opponents had by far the best overall record (97-60 (.617)) of the top 7. second was texas @ 90-67 (.573), fsu was 77-79 (.493), last of the top7 easily. 12-1 sec champ. most top 25 wins (cfp/ap/coaches). most top 15 wins. loss is to a cfp team (not a point for 'good', but lessens the 'bad' of it).

there's a lot to say bama is a top 4 team. i'm sure there's a lot to say about most of the top 7 teams.