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To me this highlights one of the problems with the super conferences.

In the olden times a team needed to be good enough to put itself in the position to leap over two traditional powerhouses. Most years only one of them would be lights out; the other would be very good, but not elite. When the Big Ten added Penn State, that didn't really change as Penn State has largely been "very good," but rarely elite. So the Iowas, Wisconsins, Michigan States (and the others) had a shot at glory if they could get the pieces to fall right. That's still technically true, but competing in a conference with this many blue bloods makes it just that much harder. With the attention (read: $$$) that Oregon and USC pay to football, it's hard to imagine they will ever be any less than a Penn State-type addition: always very good, sometimes elite. Including Washington, which has historically been very strong, though it feels like it has more ups and downs, at least in the last couple of decades, and...

Even for Illinois, which is looking pretty good these days, what is the realistic chance that it can climb past Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon, and Penn State, let alone contending with USC, Washington, and the traditional Big Ten programs that should make the conference schedule difficult like Iowa?

Sigh. Change is here, and I'm not thrilled with it. And I'm frustrated that Wisconsin hasn't been relevant in the conference since pre-Covid.

To me this highlights one of the problems with the super conferences.

In the olden times a team needed to be good enough to put itself in the position to leap over two traditional powerhouses. Most years only one of them would be lights out; the other would be very good, but not elite. When the Big Ten added Penn State, that didn't really change as Penn State has largely been "very good," but rarely elite. So the Iowas, Wisconsins, Michigan States (and the others) had a shot at glory if they could get the pieces to fall right. That's still technically true, but competing in a conference with this many blue bloods makes it just that much harder. With the attention (read: $$$) that Oregon and USC pay to football, it's hard to imagine they will ever be any less than a Penn State-type addition: always very good, sometimes elite. Including Washington, which has historically been very strong, though it feels like it has more ups and downs, at least in the last couple of decades, and...

Even for Illinois, which is looking pretty good these days, what is the realistic chance that it can climb past Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon, and Penn State, let alone contending with USC, Washington, and the traditional Big Ten programs that should make the conference schedule difficult like Iowa?

Sigh. Change is here, and I'm not thrilled with it. And I'm frustrated that Wisconsin hasn't been relevant in the conference since pre-Covid.

Good point, and it highlights the underlying issue, imo, which is that conference championships have become increasingly devalued over the past 20ish years.  You've explained the more unlikely path a Michigan State or a Wisconsin will have these days to win the conference.  In addition to that, everybody likely cares less if they could win the conference, because what everyone is really waiting on is the playoff seeding.  And even if a team puts the pieces together and can win a conference, you could make the argument that team is still not very likely to make it through a playoff gauntlet for an NC.  

So while the current landscape has made it harder for the non-giants to win the conference, by its own standards it's okay with that, because it doesn't care about conference champions and isn't inclined to distribute NC trophies to non-blue-bloods.  

I really miss the days when the first and foremost goal of every LSU fan was to make it to the Sugar Bowl, and win if at all possible.  

depends how far you want to go back, I'd guess it's much less than 40% - do independents count?

Let's go to the BCS era and since.

Thanks, not nearly as often as my hazy memory suggested, maybe because three are so recent.

Obviously with an extended playoff it's going to be more common now.

The F distribution is a big deal in data science.