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Topic: Rankings ... ugh

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Cincydawg

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Re: Rankings ... ugh
« Reply #1750 on: February 09, 2024, 09:27:53 AM »
There is a pretty solid correlation between final ranking on the field and final ranking in recruiting.

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utee94

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Re: Rankings ... ugh
« Reply #1751 on: February 09, 2024, 09:35:02 AM »
Correlation... sure.  Causation?  Not so sure.

I could hypothesize that the best coaches get the best recruits that eventually become the best teams.  So is it the X's and the O's, or the Jimmys and the Joes?

Takes more than a simple mapping of recruiting rankings versus on-field rankings to make that determination.

And with the portal and college football free agency, it's going to be even harder to make those determinations.  If a school got the #1 recruiting class and 4 years later only 3 of those guys are still on the team, how do you measure that class's contribution to success (or failure)?
« Last Edit: February 09, 2024, 09:44:09 AM by utee94 »
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Cincydawg

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Re: Rankings ... ugh
« Reply #1752 on: February 09, 2024, 09:40:47 AM »
In my opinion, having a great recruiting class is a lot better than not, even if other factors also are important.  To disparage it as "not very important" is a large over statement in my view.  And yes, some great recruiting classes fail to produce at times.

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utee94

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Re: Rankings ... ugh
« Reply #1753 on: February 09, 2024, 09:43:20 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 09, 2024, 09:40:47 AM
In my opinion, having a great recruiting class is a lot better than not, even if other factors also are important.  To disparage it as "not very important" is a large over statement in my view.  And yes, some great recruiting classes fail to produce at times.



Who said this?  I assume you're not responding to me because I didn't say that.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Rankings ... ugh
« Reply #1754 on: February 09, 2024, 09:54:42 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 08, 2024, 09:52:37 PM
With the transfer portal, it's nearly meaningless anyway.  The better your class, the less likely you're going to keep as many.  Everyone can't play. 
"nearly meaningless" is sort of like "not very important", to me.
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utee94

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Re: Rankings ... ugh
« Reply #1755 on: February 09, 2024, 10:10:30 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 09, 2024, 09:54:42 AM
"nearly meaningless" is sort of like "not very important", to me.

Cool, thanks for quoting the original thing that you were responding to. 

That said, he's making a valid point.  I wouldn't use hyperbolic language like "nearly meaningless" but I won't be surprised in a couple of years if we're able to say it's " less relevant than it used to be in a measurable and statistically significant way."
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Cincydawg

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Re: Rankings ... ugh
« Reply #1756 on: February 09, 2024, 10:14:59 AM »
Sure, I agree with that, it likely will decline in relevance with more and more transfers, but it also could be that the portal "evens out", and maybe the programs that recruit well also win in the portal.  That could be interesting to watch.

UGA recruits well, but doesn't do exceptionally well in the portal.

The other factor is getting and keeping the players you really need as opposed to some 5 star who lacks effort or is at a position where you are loaded.
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FearlessF

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Re: Rankings ... ugh
« Reply #1757 on: February 09, 2024, 03:29:43 PM »
well, if Georgia or Bama offers a 3 star, they immediately jump to a 4-star
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Rankings ... ugh
« Reply #1758 on: February 10, 2024, 07:47:16 AM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 09, 2024, 09:54:42 AM
"nearly meaningless" is sort of like "not very important", to me.

The fact that CU has the 90th-rated class, BUT ALSO:


When the transfers are incorporated, Colorado’s class is 22nd. His transfer class alone is 5th nationally. 

From 90th to 22nd....."nearly meaningless" doesn't seem so absurd, does it?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Rankings ... ugh
« Reply #1759 on: February 10, 2024, 08:39:28 AM »
I disagree entirely that recruiting rankings are anything close to "nearly meaningless".

Citing some single outlier is not very persuasive otherwise.  It's not really all that much to go from 90 to 22 anyway, a handful of stars can do it.  They'd be far better off with a recruiting ranking of 30 with transfers boosting them to maybe 13 or so.

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FearlessF

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Re: Rankings ... ugh
« Reply #1760 on: February 10, 2024, 09:08:32 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on February 10, 2024, 07:47:16 AM
The fact that CU has the 90th-rated class, BUT ALSO:


When the transfers are incorporated, Colorado’s class is 22nd. His transfer class alone is 5th nationally.

From 90th to 22nd....."nearly meaningless" doesn't seem so absurd, does it?
22nd is WAY better
but Prime doesn't talk like he's gonna finish 22nd
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Rankings ... ugh
« Reply #1761 on: February 10, 2024, 03:44:08 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on February 10, 2024, 08:39:28 AM
I disagree entirely that recruiting rankings are anything close to "nearly meaningless".
No one even suggested this - the specific point is that traditional HS player rankings are now far, far less important, thanks to the transfer portal.

Citing some single outlier is not very persuasive otherwise.  It's not really all that much to go from 90 to 22 anyway, a handful of stars can do it.  They'd be far better off with a recruiting ranking of 30 with transfers boosting them to maybe 13 or so.  No shit.  Higher rankings are better than lower rankings.  That's what you just said here.  Duh.
I'm not even sure you believe your 2nd part.  Going from 90 to 22 is MASSIVE.  How in the holy hell can you suggest otherwise????????????
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Cincydawg

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Re: Rankings ... ugh
« Reply #1762 on: February 11, 2024, 05:58:15 AM »
A team can add 7 or so 4 stars to a roster with none and go from the 90s to the 20s.  To me, it's not that huge a jump, it's very doable for a new coach like Sanders.  To claim recruiting rankings are "nearly meaningless" is, to me, absurd.  Most would agree they mean less than they did in the past because of the Portal, that's obvious, but they are still very meaningful, and predictive, more so than anything else I could contrive.

There is a pretty good correlation between recruiting rankings over 3-4 years prior and where a team finishes at the end of the season.  

Analyzing College Football's Relationship Between Recruiting Class Rankings and Wins - Stadium (watchstadium.com)
Analyzing College Football's Relationship Between Recruiting Class Rankings and Wins - Stadium (watchstadium.com)

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Cincydawg

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Re: Rankings ... ugh
« Reply #1763 on: February 11, 2024, 06:49:17 AM »
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