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Topic: Post Your Top 10

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bamajoe

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #168 on: November 21, 2018, 02:27:54 PM »
If computers were the end all for rating football teams they would all have similar conclusions. They don't. They are all different. Ergo, they are no better than human polls.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #169 on: November 21, 2018, 02:33:42 PM »
They arguably are worse.  I believe they are definitely worse early in the season, and arguably worse even now.  That is why you  have to look pretty hard to find any there days, and they do vary quite a bit because the algorithms are different.  Which one is right?  We really have no idea.

Part of that is because the team that is 18th will beat a team that is 5th about 30% of the time, and that means "We" have absolute knowledge and omniscience and KNOW the real rankings.

And of course Week One rankings would change over time even if We had omniscience.

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #170 on: November 21, 2018, 04:58:46 PM »
Quote from: bamajoe on November 21, 2018, 02:27:54 PM
If computers were the end all for rating football teams they would all have similar conclusions. They don't. They are all different. Ergo, they are no better than human polls.
Well, no better than the humans that programed them.
I'd really like to see what some crazy AI rankings would look like.  
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #171 on: November 21, 2018, 05:03:22 PM »
Quote from: bamajoe on November 21, 2018, 02:21:54 PM
I am sorry but the current Kentucky team that just got hammered by Tennessee could not hold a candle to the Kentucky team of two months ago and having Florida above them in the standings is completely justified. Sometimes teams run out of steam. That is what happened to Kentucky.
Most people seem to think this way, but again, this is all about the sliding scale of resume vs eye test.  Right now, UK's resume is stronger than its eye test.  So is Florida's.  
I think those are the teams largely thought to have been overranked in a given week.
Back to Florida - I wouldn't pick them to beat Penn St, WV, or Texas.  In face, I believe WV would curb-stomp us.  Warshington would probably beat us, maybe Utah at their place....then it's back-and-forth yes-and-no vs the teams all the way down to A&M at #22.  By saying "there's no way Florida is 11th" is that I'm valuing eye test either equal to resume or a little higher than resume.  By ranking the Gators 11th, the committee seems to be relying on resume a little heavily than I am.
And who is more of an authority on Florida, them or me?  
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #172 on: November 21, 2018, 08:47:33 PM »
you are, of course
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #173 on: November 21, 2018, 08:52:45 PM »
That was rhetorical.  You have a much more precise knowledge of UNL than any voter that doesn't cover the Huskers.  
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

bayareabadger

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #174 on: November 21, 2018, 09:33:09 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 21, 2018, 08:52:45 PM
That was rhetorical.  You have a much more precise knowledge of UNL than any voter that doesn't cover the Huskers.  
One could argue that’s good and bad. You might have an implicit bias to notice the flaws more than other teams’ flaws. 
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Kris60

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #175 on: November 21, 2018, 09:44:25 PM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on November 21, 2018, 09:33:09 PM
One could argue that’s good and bad. You might have an implicit bias to notice the flaws more than other teams’ flaws.

I agree.  Knowledge of your own team with an emotional attachment is a double edged sword.  OAM has been much higher on WVU all season than I have.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #176 on: November 21, 2018, 10:25:28 PM »
True, but if I'm "too" hard on my Gators, it's because of my knowledge of them.  I'd take the '08 or '96 Gators vs anybody, and my confidence is in direct relation to their quality of play.  Florida is 8-3.  2 of those are FCS.  So 6-3.  Lost 2 games it was favored and upset LSU.  The most specific difference in Florida this year is it's offense - instead of ranking in the 100s, it's in the 60s.  An offense in the 60s is good enough to score big on crap teams, but clams up really badly against defenses with a pulse.


I'm afraid the committee voters are even a lot like a TV announcing crew.  They fly in, get the depth chart, find out how to pronounce everyone's name, and get a narrative blurb on the team.  Interview a few of the notables, and then announce their game as if they have ANY familiarity with the team.  They do a pretty good job, considering, but slip up plenty - to the eyes and ears familiar with the program.


Ranking Florida 11th isn't criminal, but it isn't correct, either.
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“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

bayareabadger

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #177 on: November 21, 2018, 10:57:53 PM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on November 21, 2018, 10:25:28 PM
True, but if I'm "too" hard on my Gators, it's because of my knowledge of them.  I'd take the '08 or '96 Gators vs anybody, and my confidence is in direct relation to their quality of play.  Florida is 8-3.  2 of those are FCS.  So 6-3.  Lost 2 games it was favored and upset LSU.  The most specific difference in Florida this year is it's offense - instead of ranking in the 100s, it's in the 60s.  An offense in the 60s is good enough to score big on crap teams, but clams up really badly against defenses with a pulse.


I'm afraid the committee voters are even a lot like a TV announcing crew.  They fly in, get the depth chart, find out how to pronounce everyone's name, and get a narrative blurb on the team.  Interview a few of the notables, and then announce their game as if they have ANY familiarity with the team.  They do a pretty good job, considering, but slip up plenty - to the eyes and ears familiar with the program.


Ranking Florida 11th isn't criminal, but it isn't correct, either.
The offense compared to great Florida teams means nothing to being No.11. Just doesn’t. Losing in games when you’re forced, especially one early in the season is not even that useful a metric, other than it hurts the feelings of bettors and that team’s fans. 
Being worse than No. 11 means arguing why PSU or Miss State or Fresno State or four-loss Mizzou are better. And that’s a whole other thing. 
(There’s a super good argument Florida isn’t No. 11, especially if you don’t want to use resume. But the main rankings are more resume than anything else. So unless you qualify it, it’s harder to say they’re clearly not No. 11)
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bayareabadger

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #178 on: November 21, 2018, 11:01:03 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 21, 2018, 02:33:42 PM
They arguably are worse.  I believe they are definitely worse early in the season, and arguably worse even now.  That is why you  have to look pretty hard to find any there days, and they do vary quite a bit because the algorithms are different.  Which one is right?  We really have no idea.

Part of that is because the team that is 18th will beat a team that is 5th about 30% of the time, and that means "We" have absolute knowledge and omniscience and KNOW the real rankings.

And of course Week One rankings would change over time even if We had omniscience.


None are right or wrong because there is no right or wrong.
Computer rankings at least maintain internal logic. That’s their strength and why they’re often instructive, though not gospel.
(The preseason rankings are interesting because they tend to be oddly good predictors. This is becuase the sport is mostly static. I can’t say if we’re better because I don’t know what “we” are and I doubt we land that far from the preseason consensus)
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Cincydawg

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #179 on: November 22, 2018, 05:57:27 AM »
How would you personally rank a team that started out "house afire" and won 8 straight over some top level teams and then had injuries and lost the next 3 to midlevel teams?  They are 8-3 now, not that impressive, but they also have 3-4 impressive wins, early in the season, and an 'excuse".  Body of work?  Or how they are now?

Consider whether the injuries are season ending versys "out for three weeks".

In a less dramatic situation perhaps, imagine a team looks great, has two key injuries, and loses two late season games to finish 11-2, but the players are supposed to be back in 3 weeks.  Take Alabama as an example, great looking team, 3 critical injuries and they lose to Auburn and UGA to finish 11-2, do they merit consideration for the playoff or not?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #180 on: November 22, 2018, 08:56:02 AM »
The reverse is also interesting, a team somewhat like Ga Tech this year, only more so.  They start out say 1-4, losing to Bama and Clemson and Auburn, and then get rolling and get to 8-4 beating some good teams and obviously hitting stride, perhaps with a QB change a la ND.

They might be favored end of the year over most 10-1 teams.  Should they be ranked ahead of them, or not?

Yes, I corrected my silly 8-3 record. :88:
« Last Edit: November 22, 2018, 10:20:59 AM by Cincydawg »
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #181 on: November 22, 2018, 09:29:43 AM »
Getting to 8-3 after a 1-4 start would indeed be amazing.
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