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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Kris60 on October 28, 2018, 11:51:49 AM

Title: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Kris60 on October 28, 2018, 11:51:49 AM
Or 25.  Whatever floats your boat.

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. LSU
4. ND
5. Michigan
6. UGA
7. Oklahoma
8. Wazzu
9. Kentucky
10. Ohio St
11. Florida
12. WVU
13. Penn St
14. UCF
15. Texas
16. Iowa
17. Utah
18. Syracuse
19. NC St
20. Boston College
21. UVA
22. Houston
23. Iowa St
24. Washington
25. Texas A&M
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2018, 12:00:46 PM
Is this based on who I think would beat the others, or an eye test, or a projection of what the CFP will be, or what?

Your list looks OK to me.  I don't think UK would beat OSU on a neutral field though most of the time.

NC State is folding.



Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Kris60 on October 28, 2018, 12:07:50 PM
Is this based on who I think would beat the others, or an eye test, or a projection of what the CFP will be, or what?

Your list looks OK to me.  I don't think UK would beat OSU on a neutral field though most of the time.

NC State is folding.




However you prefer to do it.  Mine is sort of a mixture of resume and eye test with resume getting weighted a little heavier.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2018, 12:08:50 PM
I'd have Georgia State in the 22-25 region.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Kris60 on October 28, 2018, 12:25:46 PM
I'd have Georgia State in the 22-25 region.
I bet you wouldn’t.  You mean Georgia Southern?  Lol.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 28, 2018, 12:44:22 PM
I haven't watched most of these teams play. 
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Kris60 on October 28, 2018, 12:59:44 PM
I haven't watched most of these teams play.
Neither have the people who rank them.  At least not to any great extent.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2018, 01:06:32 PM
I bet you wouldn’t.  You mean Georgia Southern?  Lol.
State, Southern, same thing.  Not really.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2018, 01:07:27 PM
Coaches Poll
[th]RK[/th]
[th]TEAM[/th]
[th]REC[/th]
[th]PTS[/th]
[th]TREND[/th]
1(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F333.png&hash=f484e18f81e4df7fdcb5baae63ca0350) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/333/alabama-crimson-tide)Alabama (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/333/alabama-crimson-tide)(62)8-01598
2(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F228.png&hash=39a5d3b3d1f3eb44a19d9d288fe4282a) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/228/clemson-tigers)Clemson (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/228/clemson-tigers)(2)8-01537
3(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F87.png&hash=aab792f80cfef89eb4775729776b053a) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/87/notre-dame-fighting-irish)Notre Dame (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/87/notre-dame-fighting-irish)8-01458
4(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F99.png&hash=87a24357e1d86d297b11fe8685243801) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/99/lsu-tigers)LSU (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/99/lsu-tigers)7-11403
5(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F130.png&hash=9767a49161fe0672213a3fb9e7ba09e7) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/130/michigan-wolverines)Michigan (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/130/michigan-wolverines)7-11295
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F61.png&hash=c81ecf6baae96f6835266098bbd3199b) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/61/georgia-bulldogs)Georgia (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/61/georgia-bulldogs)7-11295 1
7(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F201.png&hash=b0c0e4e432fbed756608dc19f65b7460) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/201/oklahoma-sooners)Oklahoma (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/201/oklahoma-sooners)7-11190 1
8(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F194.png&hash=979c08af1a89c6411517527a3afa2051) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/194/ohio-state-buckeyes)Ohio State (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/194/ohio-state-buckeyes)7-11096 1
9(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F2116.png&hash=c3422e08524a1e152fed215657cbf283) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2116/ucf-knights)UCF (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2116/ucf-knights)7-01082 1
10(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F277.png&hash=860c17f0e3b42b1bad2c0d016305cca8) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/277/west-virginia-mountaineers)West Virginia (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/277/west-virginia-mountaineers)6-1992 2

Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on October 28, 2018, 01:10:16 PM
Kentucky is the lowest ranked one loss P5 team at 12th.

PSU is highest ranked 2 loss team at 13th.

Washington is highest ranked 3 loss team at 19th.

Syracuse is in at 24 and UVA at 22.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 28, 2018, 01:33:55 PM
Kentucky is the lowest ranked one loss P5 team at 12th.

PSU is highest ranked 2 loss team at 13th.
Exhibit #983823839 of the cowardice of voters.  What are they afraid will happen if they rank a 2-loss team ahead of a 1-loss team?!?  Nuclear war?!?!
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 28, 2018, 01:35:18 PM
On Resume:
1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. LSU
4. Clemson
5. Michigan
6. Georgia
7. Oklahoma
8. WVU
9. Kentucky
10. Washington State

On Eye Test:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. Notre Dame
5. LSU
6. Oklahoma
7. Florida         --       yup
8. Georgia        --       doubleyup
9. Ohio State    --       tripleyup
10. WVU
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 28, 2018, 01:36:44 PM
Exhibit #983823839 of the cowardice of voters.  What are they afraid will happen if they rank a 2-loss team ahead of a 1-loss team?!?  Nuclear war?!?!
What if you were to learn that the polls have extreme variance and the published version is merely an average and half the poster do have PSU above (maybe well above) UK?
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 28, 2018, 01:39:46 PM
Look, here's the team's losses by ranking in the new poll:
1,2,3 - 0 losses
4,5,6,7,8 - 1 loss
9 - 0 losses (UCF - obviously discounted, yet we resume)
10-12 - 1 loss
13-16 - 2 losses
17 - 1 loss (HOU - obviously discounted)



Here it is in a list:
0,0,0,1,1,1,1,1,0(UCF), 1,1,1,2,2,2,2,1(HOU),2,3,3,...
A 5-year old could do this.  Here kid, here's the big-boy teams and how many times they've lost.  
And then here are the "others" who aren't as great.
Put them in order.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: MichiFan87 on October 28, 2018, 01:42:21 PM
Alabama
Clemson
Notre Dame
Michigan
LSU
Georgia
Oklahoma
UCF
Washington State
Ohio State
West Virginia
Kentucky
Florida
Houston
Texas
Utah
Utah State
Virginia
Fresno State
Syracuse
Boston College
Penn State
Iowa
North Carolina State
Georgia Southern
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 28, 2018, 01:42:59 PM
What if you were to learn that the polls have extreme variance and the published version is merely an average and half the poster do have PSU above (maybe well above) UK?
It's not specifically about UK/PSU, but in your instance, we either have too many voters, or half the voters are poor.  
Except there is a definitive cutoff (excluding mid-majors) on team losses, all the way down to 22 (UVA).  Literally listed are the undefeated, then the 1-loss teams, then 2-loss teams. 
It should be embarrassing for them.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 28, 2018, 01:45:33 PM
Fro would probably have the SEC 1-14. 

I kid, I kid. 

He'd obviously knock both Kentucky and Tennessee down a few spots. Perhaps even outside of the top 20. 
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 28, 2018, 01:46:52 PM
It's not specifically about UK/PSU, but in your instance, we either have too many voters, or half the voters are poor.  
Except there is a definitive cutoff (excluding mid-majors) on team losses, all the way down to 22 (UVA).  Literally listed are the undefeated, then the 1-loss teams, then 2-loss teams.
It should be embarrassing for them.
Maybe. But the other half may be more aggressively ranking other teams (while the ones ranking PSU over UK rank the others more boringly) and the entire group is just unlucky that the way it averages out looks so bad.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 28, 2018, 01:48:27 PM
UCF's 3 best opponents so far:
Pitt, Memphis, SMU



This is a team that will have won 25 straight games by the end of the season AND will not deserve a playoff spot.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 28, 2018, 01:52:56 PM
Fro would probably have the SEC 1-14.

I kid, I kid.

He'd obviously knock both Kentucky and Tennessee down a few spots. Perhaps even outside of the top 20.
It'd be funnier if I was more of a homer.  This is so tired....
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Kris60 on October 28, 2018, 01:55:53 PM
Exhibit #983823839 of the cowardice of voters.  What are they afraid will happen if they rank a 2-loss team ahead of a 1-loss team?!?  Nuclear war?!?!
So post yours. That is the purpose of this
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 28, 2018, 02:02:01 PM
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. LSU
5. Notre Dame
6. West Virginia
7. Ohio St
8. Georgia
9. Washington St
10. Texas


Most teams I suspect are the strongest have unimpressive schedules so far.  ND has a strong one, but I don't believe they're that great.  I probably value WV more than most.  Clemson had been underachieving for awhile, as they remained undefeated.  I'm afraid the playoff chase is the same as the SEC East race - it's all a contest to see who gets spanked by Alabama.  
I'm forgiving of Texas' and Michigan's first-game losses probably.  OSU was blown out, but it was just 1 loss.  LSU could beat anyone, but lost to a very flawed Florida.  Georgia is really missing its 2 RB from last year.  Clemson isn't a strong 2 for me, but I just feel their DL will bail them out when/if they get in trouble down the line.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 28, 2018, 02:24:52 PM
Coaches Poll









[th]RK[/th]
[th]TEAM[/th]
[th]REC[/th]
[th]PTS[/th]
[th]TREND[/th]

1
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F333.png&hash=f484e18f81e4df7fdcb5baae63ca0350) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/333/alabama-crimson-tide)Alabama (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/333/alabama-crimson-tide)(62)
8-0
1598


2
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F228.png&hash=39a5d3b3d1f3eb44a19d9d288fe4282a) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/228/clemson-tigers)Clemson (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/228/clemson-tigers)(2)
8-0
1537


3
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F87.png&hash=aab792f80cfef89eb4775729776b053a) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/87/notre-dame-fighting-irish)Notre Dame (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/87/notre-dame-fighting-irish)
8-0
1458


4
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F99.png&hash=87a24357e1d86d297b11fe8685243801) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/99/lsu-tigers)LSU (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/99/lsu-tigers)
7-1
1403


5
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F130.png&hash=9767a49161fe0672213a3fb9e7ba09e7) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/130/michigan-wolverines)Michigan (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/130/michigan-wolverines)
7-1
1295



(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F61.png&hash=c81ecf6baae96f6835266098bbd3199b) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/61/georgia-bulldogs)Georgia (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/61/georgia-bulldogs)
7-1
1295
1

7
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F201.png&hash=b0c0e4e432fbed756608dc19f65b7460) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/201/oklahoma-sooners)Oklahoma (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/201/oklahoma-sooners)
7-1
1190
1

8
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F194.png&hash=979c08af1a89c6411517527a3afa2051) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/194/ohio-state-buckeyes)Ohio State (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/194/ohio-state-buckeyes)
7-1
1096
1

9
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F2116.png&hash=c3422e08524a1e152fed215657cbf283) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2116/ucf-knights)UCF (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2116/ucf-knights)
7-0
1082
1

10
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fa.espncdn.com%2Fi%2Fteamlogos%2Fncaa%2F500%2F277.png&hash=860c17f0e3b42b1bad2c0d016305cca8) (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/277/west-virginia-mountaineers)West Virginia (http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/277/west-virginia-mountaineers)
6-1
992
2





This one looks about right to me, although I would put Michigan 4 and LSU 5,  and switch Georgia and Oklahoma.   
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Mdot21 on October 28, 2018, 04:19:44 PM
I'd go...

1) Alabama
2) Clemson
3) Notre Dame
4) Michigan
5) LSU
6) Oklahoma
7) Georgia
8) Washington State
9) West Virginia
10) Ohio State


I don't punish losses as harshly as some. Ohio State crapped the bed, but they are still a top 10 talented team to me.

UCF is getting nowhere near my top 10. They don't play anybody and would be significant under dogs to all 10 of those teams.

Michigan and LSU are close, but I just went Michigan because I feel like they have the better coach and better QB. Both are defensive and run game oriented teams. Jim Harbaugh is a massive upgrade at head coach over Ed Oregon though and Shea Patterson is a lot better than a Joe Burrow who is barely completing 53% of his passes. Also: LSU's wins over A&M and Miami don't look quite like they did 4-5 weeks ago. Miami and A&M are awful.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 28, 2018, 04:25:06 PM

UCF is getting nowhere near my top 10. They don't play anybody and would be significant under dogs to all 10 of those teams.
No credit for being our defending National Champions? 
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Mdot21 on October 28, 2018, 05:08:56 PM
No credit for being our defending National Champions?
Wait, wasn't that USF? I think you're getting your directional Group of 5 Florida schools mixed up.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 28, 2018, 05:27:33 PM
Wait, wasn't that USF? I think you're getting your directional Group of 5 Florida schools mixed up.
Ha, no, it was UCF, but the fact that this comment happens is symbolic of the fact that the Knights don't matter.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: TyphonInc on October 28, 2018, 05:34:49 PM
What if you were to learn that the polls have extreme variance and the published version is merely an average and half the poster do have PSU above (maybe well above) UK?
NO. Clearly a Democracy is worse than a Dictatorship. Cowards.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Anonymous Coward on October 28, 2018, 05:46:18 PM
I LIKE JOKES
(especially when I understand them)
So: What'd ya say?
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 28, 2018, 06:49:11 PM
. Also: LSU's wins over A&M and Miami don't look quite like they did 4-5 weeks ago. Miami and A&M are awful.
Auburn & Miami, Miami and Auburn.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on October 28, 2018, 06:58:17 PM
1. Alabama (8-0)
2. Clemson (8-0)
3. Notre Dame (8-0)
4. LSU (7-1)
5. Georgia (7-1)
6. Oklahoma (7-1)
7.  Michigan (7-1)
8. Ohio State (7-1)
9. Washington State (7-1)
10.  UCF (7-0)
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on October 28, 2018, 07:03:08 PM
Over the past 10 years, on average, a little less than two teams that start the season ranked in the AP top 10 finish the season unranked. There are currently four preseason top-10 teams out of the poll.

Washington and Wisconsin became the latest. The Huskies were No. 15 last week but lost to California 12-10. They started the season No. 6. The Badgers, No. 4 in the preseason poll, fell 31-17 at Northwestern.


Also on the outside of the rankings after starting the season with lofty expectations are Miami (preseason No. 8) and Auburn (preseason No. 9). The last time four preseason top-10 teams finished unranked was 2002, when Tennessee (preseason No. 5), Florida (No. 6), Washington (No. 9) and Nebraska (No. 10) flopped.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Mdot21 on October 28, 2018, 08:27:44 PM
Auburn & Miami, Miami and Auburn.
Auburn’s offense is terrible but they have a pretty good defense. 
A&M and Miami are just bad football teams imo.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Mdot21 on October 28, 2018, 08:29:42 PM
1. Alabama (8-0)
2. Clemson (8-0)
3. Notre Dame (8-0)
4. LSU (7-1)
5. Georgia (7-1)
6. Oklahoma (7-1)
7.  Michigan (7-1)
8. Ohio State (7-1)
9. Washington State (7-1)
10.  UCF (7-0)
All the way at 7th? Wow. Tough crowd.
The 500-0 beat down in Ann Arbor not fresh anymore? If Harbaugh was an ass and liked to keep in the first team defense late and run up the score and throw the ball late into the 4th that game probably would’ve been 90-0.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 28, 2018, 10:47:42 PM
Vegas doesn't seem to be a big fan of ND:
-8 ND vs Northwestern
-9.5 UGA vs Kentucky
-10 Michigan vs Penn St
-14.5 Alabama vs LSU


Irish have the weakest opponent of the four.
Alabama has been favored in 115 of their last 116 games.  The one time they were an underdog, they had a blowout win.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2018, 08:13:07 AM
I'm going to post my guess as to how the final top ten AP poll will look.

1.  Alabama
2.  Michigan
3.  Clemson
4.  UCF
5.  Oklahoma
6.  Ohio State
7.  Florida
8.  LSU
9.  WVU
10.  UGA

Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on October 29, 2018, 10:45:12 AM
All the way at 7th? Wow. Tough crowd.
The 500-0 beat down in Ann Arbor not fresh anymore? If Harbaugh was an ass and liked to keep in the first team defense late and run up the score and throw the ball late into the 4th that game probably would’ve been 90-0.
Nebraska isn't a good team this season and was a bad team back in Sept.  90-0 wouldn't have been enough to rank Michigan at #4.
The win over the Badgers doesn't look as good today.  Narrow win vs Northwestern.  Is Michigan State real strong?
an impressive win vs PSU will move them up.
LSU's resume is more impressive
I think Georgia is very good.  
Probably a toss up for Oklahoma and Michigan.
I'd like to see the Sooner offense vs the Wolverine defense.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: ELA on October 29, 2018, 10:45:42 AM
Simply based on resume, not on eye test, or who I think would win on a neutral field

Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on October 29, 2018, 10:52:43 AM
tough crowd

Wolverines at #7????
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Temp430 on October 29, 2018, 10:56:27 AM
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. LSU
4. Notre Dame
5. Michigan
6. Georgia
7. Oklahoma
8. Ohio State
9. Washington State
10. Kentucky

Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on October 29, 2018, 10:56:40 AM
This Dawg edition has "issues".  Maybe like many Dawg fans I expect something close to perfection, but the defense is missing Roquan and is not stopping the run very well.  The offense can look great and then awful in minutes.  The OL is really dinged up and not playing like last year's at all.

Florida could have made that a very close game had the turnovers not killed them, and the almost did anyway until late.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: ELA on October 29, 2018, 11:01:44 AM
tough crowd

Wolverines at #7????
Based purely on resume to this point, I think Georgia and Kentucky have had a tougher schedule.  Splitting hairs, and for now it's a snapshot.  If Michigan winds up with 1 loss, they'll have picked up some much better wins.  As of now, a win at #26 Michigan State is the only win Michigan has over a composite top 40 team.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Mdot21 on October 29, 2018, 11:53:52 AM
This Dawg edition has "issues".  Maybe like many Dawg fans I expect something close to perfection, but the defense is missing Roquan and is not stopping the run very well.  The offense can look great and then awful in minutes.  The OL is really dinged up and not playing like last year's at all.

Florida could have made that a very close game had the turnovers not killed them, and the almost did anyway until late.
Watched the entire game start to finish. Have to say, I was not that impressed with Georgia. Florida probably could've ran for 300 yards had they been more committed to running the ball. They let Franks throw it too much and Felipe Franks is awful. Pretty much any Felipe Franks pass is a wasted play. Not sure he could throw for 250 yards in a skeleton drill with like 4 or 5 receivers and no defense. He really blew that game for Florida and handed it right to Georgia. The Georgia defense was getting very little to no pressure on Franks and they had issues stopping the run and tackling. Most of Franks' bad plays honestly were unforced. He had all day in the pocket, he's just friggin terrible.
Florida was also missing 3 starting DBs and had issues in coverage all day long. Not sure that's the case if they have their guys. The Florida defense also never bothered to cover the TE once.
Florida is a very flawed team right now. There was no way they should've been ranked 9th. I think Mullen is a heck of a coach and their OL and run game is much improved, but they are going nowhere fast with Franks. They need to make a QB change now and build for the future.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on October 30, 2018, 07:56:34 AM
Agree about UGA and UF both.  I also was at the last game where Bama was an underdog.  They led 31-0 at the half as I recall.  Just about everything that could go wrong did for the home team.  They sort of made it back in the second half a bit.

Michigan has been looking stout of late for obvious reasons, kind of like LSU in some ways.  Defense and enough offense.

Clemson has been looking better also, almost as if they might be able to play with that other team.  Some of that of course can be competition, but they demolished an undefeated NCSU.  The ACC is not much of a challenge these days.

It's weird, to me, how conferences can be very strong one year, or at least pretty solid, and look so weak the next.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 30, 2018, 08:17:54 AM
1. Alabama
2. Michigan
3. LSU
4. Georgia
5. Notre Dame
6. Ohio State
7. Oklahoma
8. Clemson
9. West Virginia
10. Washington State
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on October 30, 2018, 08:19:57 AM
I know Ohio State looked really bad, but I still think they are a very talented team with "holes", especially on D (duh).  Put them up against say ND in a bowl game and I think OSU comes out with a win.

Michigan versus LSU would be a fun game to watch, a slugfest, probably 6-4 in double OT.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: fezzador on October 30, 2018, 08:43:43 AM
Auburn’s offense is terrible but they have a pretty good defense.
A&M and Miami are just bad football teams imo.
Not sure why there's such a precipitous drop-off in offensive production.  I thought that outside of "David" Tua, Stidham would have been able to make a claim as the SEC's second-best QB.  That obviously isn't the case at this point.
Gus's seat has to be feeling a bit toasty.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on October 30, 2018, 10:33:09 AM
I don't regard A&M as a "bad football team".  They are 5-3 and hung with both Bama (a bit) and Clemson (to the end).  They also play at Auburn this weekend.  Auburn is a slight favorite.

One might consider Auburn close to bad after their loss AT HOME to Tennessee.

Auburn may be the most disappointing team versus preseason in existence.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Mdot21 on October 30, 2018, 01:51:10 PM
I don't regard A&M as a "bad football team".  They are 5-3 and hung with both Bama (a bit) and Clemson (to the end).  They also play at Auburn this weekend.  Auburn is a slight favorite.

One might consider Auburn close to bad after their loss AT HOME to Tennessee.

Auburn may be the most disappointing team versus preseason in existence.
Hmm. Not sure I agree on A&M. They got blown off the field by Bama 45-23. They hung with Bama for about a QTR and a half. They played Clemson tough- but that was before Lawrerence took over- and Clemson always plays teams they should crush close. Clemson seems to be a team that plays up or down to it's level of competition.
Look at their wins. They beat an FCS Northwestern State. They beat Louisiana Monroe. And they squeaked by mediocre South Carolina and Arkansas teams. They also probably should've lost to Kentucky and they just got a double digit beat down by a Mississippi State team that is one dimensional on offense and can't throw the football at all.
I just don't think A&M is that good.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Kris60 on November 04, 2018, 08:36:33 PM
Bump.  Updated through games on November 3rd.

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. ND
4. Michigan
5. UGA
6. Oklahoma
7. Wazzu
8. LSU
9. WVU
10. Ohio St
11. Kentucky
12. UCF
13. Syracuse
14.Texas
15. Florida
16.NC St
17. Boston College
18. Mississippi St
19. Michigan St
20. Penn St
21. Wisconsin
22. Iowa
23. Iowa St
24. Auburn
25. Washington
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 04, 2018, 08:56:23 PM
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. Notre Dame
5. West Virginia
6. Georgia
7. Ohio State
8. LSU
9. Texas
10. Washington State
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Kris60 on November 11, 2018, 09:44:09 AM
Updated through November 10.

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. ND
4. Michigan
5. UGA
6. Oklahoma
7. Wazzu
8. WVU
9. Ohio St
10. LSU
11. UCF
12. Texas
13. Penn St
14. Syracuse
15. Kentucky
16. Florida
17. Iowa St
18. Washington
19. Utah
20. Mississippi St
21. Duke
22. Northwestern
23. Auburn
24. Iowa
25. Texas A&M
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 11, 2018, 10:57:22 AM
The highest ranked team to lose was NCSU (13th I think).  So, no change in top ten is really needed unless you drop OU for that close call.

Ohio State looked better of course on the road in a critical game, maybe they are sorting out some issues?

Alabama's offense is looking slightly mortal.  Clemson had a nice road win.  ND avoided any pretense of an upset.

Georgia labored for a while but eventually carved up Auburn with Swift, again, breaking a long one.

Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Anonymous Coward on November 11, 2018, 11:16:20 AM
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. Georgia
5. Notre Dame
6. West Virginia
7. Ohio State
8. LSU
9. Washington State
10. Oklahoma

I definitely considered keeping OU out, but I ran out of teams to comfortably place above them.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 11, 2018, 11:19:32 AM
I think OU would be a very dangerous opponent.  A team could get in a scoring match with them and have a couple drives stopped by turnovers and lose.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Kris60 on November 11, 2018, 01:23:47 PM
The highest ranked team to lose was NCSU (13th I think).  So, no change in top ten is really needed unless you drop OU for that close call.




Maybe, maybe not.  The idea that if you win you keep your spot is sorta poll era thinking.  The committee reevaluates you and your resume each week like it’s the first time they’ve ever seen it.  There is no baseline from last week to go by.
Now that I’ve gotten all preachy I think there is a good chance you are right.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see no movement at all in the top 10, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a little movement either.  Last week WVU was evaluated as a team with 3 wins over teams with winning records.  This week they will be evaluated as a team with one such win.  Ohio St last week had one such win.  This week they have two.  LSU had six of those wins last week.  This week they have 4.
My top 7 stayed the same but I moved around 8-10.  WVU and Ohio St moved up a spot in mine and LSU dropped two.  We’ll see what the committee does.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 11, 2018, 01:33:35 PM
The highest ranked team to lose was NCSU (13th I think).  So, no change in top ten is really needed unless you drop OU for that close call.



This is the attitude of the lazy voter.  Ugh.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 11, 2018, 01:41:35 PM
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. Notre Dame
5. West Virginia
6. Georgia
7. Ohio State
8. LSU
9. Texas
10. Washington State
LSU beat one of the worst SEC teams in years by only 7 points.  Texas won on the road late, and Wazzou spanked a good team.  There is no reason to keep those 3 in the same order as I did last week, imo.  The top 7 did what they were supposed to do, I'll give you that.
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. Notre Dame
5. West Virginia
6. Georgia
7. Ohio State
8. Washington State
9. Texas
10. Oklahoma
Yes, I'm down on OU.  They have no defense.  That's kind of important.  But neither does Texas, apparently.  I'm also not high on ND...they're closer to 6th than they are to 2nd.  
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 11, 2018, 02:39:40 PM
I do get lazy worrying about poster rankings.  Eh.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 12, 2018, 12:49:18 AM
I'm sorry, but did UTAH STATE go from unranked to #14 in the AP poll?!?  WTF is the world coming to???
No, it doesn't matter, but it's still demented.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2018, 05:59:41 AM
As noted, a lot of teams are catching that 3rd or 4th loss and being dropped opening up holes for others to slide in, you can run out of decent teams when you get around 14th or so.

Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2018, 06:13:23 AM
Utah State had a one TD loss to MSU first game out, and then 9 straight wins with a lot of offensive production over second tier teams.  Now, are they really better than UF, PSU, UDubb, et al.?  Probably not, and they would not be favored over teams ranked below them.

But at three losses, those teams ranked below them are also rather mediocre, it's just that this season there are a lot of 7-3 teams.  UK just lost at Tennessee and is ranked 20th.  Someone has to be.  The AP ranks two FOUR LOSS teams now.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2018, 06:16:42 AM
The three undefeated P5 teams are 1-2-3 and the remaining 6 one loss teams are 4-9.  Slick.

And how much actual thought do you think goes into any of this?  Imagine one sportswriter who really spends an hour thinking about this, pondering the possibilities, and then he devises a good poll (maybe), and his vote is subsumed with 57 or so other rankings and basically disappears with a 2% impact.  Why would anyone bother?

Just line'em up, make a few tweaks, and send it in.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Temp430 on November 12, 2018, 07:07:26 AM
1. Clemson
2. Notre Dame
3. Michigan
4. Georgia
5. Alabama (QB injured)
6. West Virginia
7. Washington State
8. Ohio State
9. LSU
10. UCF
11. Oklahoma (No defense)
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2018, 07:09:18 AM
Alabama has two QBs hobbled, and some suggestions they rest them both at least against Citadel.

Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: MrNubbz on November 12, 2018, 07:40:34 AM
How they'll get rest against the vaunted Citadel one can only guess.Are they even Div I ?
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 12, 2018, 07:55:48 AM
Saban would never concede that the Citadel is a "winnable game"

He'd have your press credentials revoked for merely suggesting such. 
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2018, 08:15:10 AM
They are FCS and 4-5.

They are really bad.  
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: bayareabadger on November 12, 2018, 08:47:25 AM
How they'll get rest against the vaunted Citadel one can only guess.Are they even Div I ?
Yep. All FCS games are in fact D1
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: bayareabadger on November 12, 2018, 08:50:22 AM
They are FCS and 4-5.

They are really bad.  
Looking at it, they had a hard luck start. Losses by 7, 1, 3. That’ll kill a team in that conference. I know there were good a few years ago, but they seem to have fallen off.

(Not that Bama won’t house them, even just by running inside zone 55 times)
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: bayareabadger on November 12, 2018, 08:57:04 AM
I'm sorry, but did UTAH STATE go from unranked to #14 in the AP poll?!?  WTF is the world coming to???
No, it doesn't matter, but it's still demented.
No. They made the poll two weeks ago, going from unranked to 18th on a week when seven teams fell out. 
That was the first week three-loss teams appeared (we talked about that on another thread), and people suddenly noticed the one-loss G5 teams. Both USU and Fresno jumped in as they had been hammering or smothering people. 
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2018, 09:04:00 AM
My impression is that the gap between the top teams and the second tier teams is unusually large this year.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: ELA on November 12, 2018, 10:01:44 AM
My impression is that the gap between the top teams and the second tier teams is unusually large this year.
Yeah I think the teams ranked in the teens look substantially worse to me than teams normally in that range.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 12, 2018, 11:31:37 AM
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Michigan
5. Georgia
6. Oklahoma
7. Washington State
8. West Virginia
9. Ohio State
10. UCF
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Mdot21 on November 12, 2018, 11:34:23 AM
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Michigan
5. Georgia
6. Oklahoma
7. Washington State
8. West Virginia
9. Ohio State
10. UCF
this is basically my exact top 10, but flip WVU and Washington State.
I was going to put Oklahoma at 5, but man, their defense is just terrible.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 12, 2018, 01:26:05 PM
The three undefeated P5 teams are 1-2-3 and the remaining 6 one loss teams are 4-9.  Slick.

And how much actual thought do you think goes into any of this?  Imagine one sportswriter who really spends an hour thinking about this, pondering the possibilities, and then he devises a good poll (maybe), and his vote is subsumed with 57 or so other rankings and basically disappears with a 2% impact.  Why would anyone bother?

Just line'em up, make a few tweaks, and send it in.
If this was something important to you, you'd be arguing the other way.  The argument against taking it seriously and producing your best ranking is...well nobody else does it?  Is that a message you'd send to a kid about something?  
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 12, 2018, 01:29:26 PM
Utah State had a one TD loss to MSU first game out, and then 9 straight wins with a lot of offensive production over second tier teams.  Now, are they really better than UF, PSU, UDubb, et al.?  Probably not, and they would not be favored over teams ranked below them.

But at three losses, those teams ranked below them are also rather mediocre, it's just that this season there are a lot of 7-3 teams.  UK just lost at Tennessee and is ranked 20th.  Someone has to be.  The AP ranks two FOUR LOSS teams now.
If the teams ranked in the teens have maybe one extra loss than in previous seasons, why do we automatically suggest they're worse than in previous years?  
It's my mistake on USU going from unranked to 14, the (-) I saw is for the fact they didn't move up or down, not that they were unranked last week.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 12, 2018, 01:30:01 PM
this is basically my exact top 10, but flip WVU and Washington State.
I was going to put Oklahoma at 5, but man, their defense is just terrible.
Their defense is so terrible, you move them down one spot?  :88:
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 12, 2018, 01:30:44 PM
All I know is that listing the top 3 undefeateds, then the next 6 one-loss teams, then a courtesy UCF at 10th is lazy A F.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Mdot21 on November 12, 2018, 02:18:30 PM
Their defense is so terrible, you move them down one spot?  :88:
as bad as that defense is- that offense is as great. 
I really think Oklahoma is the only team that could keep pace with Bama offensively. Problem is, even if they hang 42 on BAMA, they'd give up 55.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2018, 05:16:26 PM
Of course it's lazy, why would ANY sportswriter spend any real time on this?  Five minutes and done.  Round up the usual suspects.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 12, 2018, 05:25:49 PM
I'm talking about here.  We do this for leisure, for fun.  And yet many of us are slaves to the loss column.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2018, 06:32:34 PM
I know I am.  If I spend one minute on my "poll" I've gone too long.

Round up the usual suspects.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Kris60 on November 12, 2018, 08:56:32 PM
I'm talking about here.  We do this for leisure, for fun.  And yet many of us are slaves to the loss column.
My poll this week had the three undefeateds and then the 6 one loss teams but that’s how I saw them this week.  I feel comfortable putting them where I have them.  I have a couple of three loss teams in front of two loss Syracuse.  Last week I had LSU in front of a couple of one loss teams.  This week their resume changed a little and they had a pretty uninspiring win so I moved them down.

Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2018, 09:06:50 PM
If this was something important to you, you'd be arguing the other way.  The argument against taking it seriously and producing your best ranking is...well nobody else does it?  Is that a message you'd send to a kid about something?  
It isn't important to me, or to AP sportswriters, or to coaches, or to anyone else.  They do have important stuff, it's about prioritizing.
And yes, I would send this message to a kid or anyone else, figure out what's really important and focus on that.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 13, 2018, 03:15:15 PM
All I know is that listing the top 3 undefeateds, then the next 6 one-loss teams, then a courtesy UCF at 10th is lazy A F.
here's your not lazy ranking
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. Notre Dame
5. West Virginia
6. Georgia
7. Ohio State
8. Washington State
9. Texas
10. Oklahoma
compared to my lazy ranking
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Michigan
5. Georgia
6. Oklahoma
7. Washington State
8. West Virginia
9. Ohio State
10. UCF
same 9 teams, some a couple spots up or down
our biggest difference is the Sooners - 4 spots
your extensive research gives the Longhorns over the Knights as the difference
I guess time will tell.  This week Texas favored by 3 over ISU, UCF favored by 7.5 over Cincy
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2018, 03:30:17 PM
The OU at 10 versus 6 "question" is moot anyway.  Maybe they should be 10, maybe 6, maybe higher.  If we accumulate these opinions, as the AP does, then they end up at 8, if there are only two opinions.  If there are 58 opinions, they probably end up 6 or 7.  

And there is currently no metric for deciding which is correct, it's OPINION.  Now, maybe down the road OU wins out and finishes at 5, and then gets hammered in a bowl game, then we might figure 10 was really about right for them, and there they go.

The only relevant rankings are the penultimate ones, or THE penultimate one:

Playoff teams
NY6 teams
bowl teams
not bowl teams.

Where OU is placed NOW means squat, and giving deep thought to whether they should be at 6 or 10 is pointless, to me.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Mdot21 on November 13, 2018, 04:46:36 PM
If Oklahoma even had a mediocre defense I'd rank them #3 because that offense is otherworldly. Their defense is just soooooooooo bad.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 13, 2018, 05:01:26 PM
The OU at 10 versus 6 "question" is moot anyway.  Maybe they should be 10, maybe 6, maybe higher.  If we accumulate these opinions, as the AP does, then they end up at 8, if there are only two opinions.  If there are 58 opinions, they probably end up 6 or 7.  

And there is currently no metric for deciding which is correct, it's OPINION.  

This is correct, BUT if we simply listed the teams based on number of losses and where they started in the preseason poll, that rankings list would almost definitely be incorrect.  So that's all I'm harping on - let's not all rank the teams in a manner that is most especially incorrect.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 13, 2018, 05:02:53 PM
You know what's crazy?  
UCF will likely have won 25 straight games AND not deserve a playoff spot.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Mdot21 on November 13, 2018, 05:06:57 PM
You know what's crazy?  
UCF will likely have won 25 straight games AND not deserve a playoff spot.
What's more crazy is they are probably legitimately the best football team in the state of Florida.
Florida State and Miami both just suck. Florida is playing with a depleted secondary and terrible QB.
I think UCF would beat all 3 of those teams on a neutral site. I know for sure they'd whoop Florida State and Miami.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 13, 2018, 05:55:56 PM
I'm amused by the Michigan over Notre Dame crowd.

Let's go to the tape. Head-to-head: ND had the win.

But Michigan has improved so much! Not ND, though--despite replacing their quarterback (the one who beat Michigan).

Common opponent: Northwestern: Michigan came from behind to win by three at Northwestern. Notre Dame never trailed, built a 14-point lead in the third quarter, and won by ten at Northwestern.

To be fair, Michigan has blown out a lot of teams, and has four wins over P5 teams with winning records, 7-3 Penn State having the best record of the bunch. Notre Dame also has four wins over P5 teams with winning records--and, of course, 9-1 Michigan is one of those.

Michigan does have the better stats, though. So there's that.

Anyway, y'll are entitled to you opinion, and I'm sure this applies to me, too, but your colors are showing. :-)
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Mdot21 on November 13, 2018, 06:34:50 PM
I'm amused by the Michigan over Notre Dame crowd.

Let's go to the tape. Head-to-head: ND had the win.

But Michigan has improved so much! Not ND, though--despite replacing their quarterback (the one who beat Michigan).

Common opponent: Northwestern: Michigan came from behind to win by three at Northwestern. Notre Dame never trailed, built a 14-point lead in the third quarter, and won by ten at Northwestern.

To be fair, Michigan has blown out a lot of teams, and has four wins over P5 teams with winning records, 7-3 Penn State having the best record of the bunch. Notre Dame also has four wins over P5 teams with winning records--and, of course, 9-1 Michigan is one of those.

Michigan does have the better stats, though. So there's that.

Anyway, y'll are entitled to you opinion, and I'm sure this applies to me, too, but your colors are showing. :-)
head to head should matter.
But Michigan is a way different team right now than they were back then. Karran Higdon was hurt early in the season, Patterson was still feeling things out and wasn't really comfortable in the offense or with his receivers. Patterson has really developed in the offense and they are doing more and more with him every week. The QB run wrinkles have really taken the offense to another level when they've used him on those. You saw none of those vs ND. The OL was a complete mess at the beginning of the year. Ed Warriner has flat out done remarkable things with this OL unit that I never thought possible. He really has been all that and then some. If I'm Harbaugh, I give the guy a life-time contract and let him do whatever the hell he wants.
Also: Josh Metellus was out on the first game on a questionable targeting call. As hard as I was on Metellus last year and even parts of this year- he has turned the corner. By far the best safety that Michigan has had in ages. And after seeing Brad Hawkins misjudge a ball he should've intercepted vs ND and then whiff on the angle and not be able to catch up to the Rutgers RB and give up an 80 yard TD run- think it's safe to say Metellus is a vastly underrated part of that defense. Without him that Michigan defense gets significantly worse.
Maybe the biggest X-factor and unknown though for Michigan is Tarik Black. The healthier he gets and the more up to speed he gets, the more dangerous it makes that Michigan passing attack. Nico Collins, Donovan Peoples Jones, Zach Gentry, and Tarik Black are some dudes man. I honestly can't remember seeing a more talented group of receiving options at Michigan ever. You have to go back to Braylon, Avant, and Breaston. And Avant was significantly slower and smaller than Nico, Tarik, and DPJ. Breaston was significantly smaller than all 3 and probably only faster than Nico Collins. And Zach Gentry is a more talented TE than Jake Butt. All 4 of those guys should be NFL draft picks one day.
If Shea and Gentry come back next year and Shea grows in that offense and Harbaugh decides to actually open up the offense- Michigan could have a filthy passing attack in 2019. One of my biggest gripes with the offense this year is they are just way too damn conservative.
As crazy as it sounds because of how terrible they were last year, I think Michigan has really underachieved on offense this year. That pass game should be way better than it is. Especially with Black virtually back to 100% now.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Anonymous Coward on November 13, 2018, 06:57:32 PM
The H2H comparison is only said to be explicitly drawn into conversation (by the committee) when two teams are so close as to make an obvious comparison winner otherwise impossible.
Michigan beats ND in SOS, ranked wins, and opponent-adjusted and play-by-play advanced stats. Not all of those matter to the committee and that's good. But based on comments and ranking, the committee does appear to think ND and Michigan are on the same level right now. And one can surmise that H2H is breaking the tie. 
However: If ND loses, I would not be surprised if the committee would no longer see them as on the same level and therefore no longer get to the step to apply H2H. Michigan would just go above.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Anonymous Coward on November 13, 2018, 07:06:47 PM
I do happen to think Michigan is better. Because of improvement, in part. But also because the first quarter was so flukey for this defense. And though ND can also argue improvement, they can't also say a reversion to the mean from the first matchup would favor them.
In any event, I pray for a rematch and would expect a multi-score win. But that's just fan emotions. 
The last post was more removed.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Anonymous Coward on November 13, 2018, 07:10:31 PM
here's your not lazy ranking
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. Notre Dame
5. West Virginia
6. Georgia
7. Ohio State
8. Washington State
9. Texas
10. Oklahoma
compared to my lazy ranking
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Michigan
5. Georgia
6. Oklahoma
7. Washington State
8. West Virginia
9. Ohio State
10. UCF
same 9 teams, some a couple spots up or down
our biggest difference is the Sooners - 4 spots
your extensive research gives the Longhorns over the Knights as the difference
I guess time will tell.  This week Texas favored by 3 over ISU, UCF favored by 7.5 over Cincy
That's right. I'd argue a ranking can, at best, have signs of being lazy. But sometimes a poll could appear lazy but be well thought out. And when many polls are averaged, the odds of this may be higher. I don't disagree with OAM's idea of the symptoms of a lazy poll, but I do disagree that seeing those symptoms is to prove the disease.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 13, 2018, 07:35:03 PM
ND is better, too, not least because it has upgraded its quarterback play.

Maybe we should all hope for a rematch. :-)
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Anonymous Coward on November 13, 2018, 08:03:20 PM
Michigan upgraded its QB play also. Shea wasn't only green in that game but also hurt. So we ran several key drives with McCaffery.
Still, I think it's worth separating what fans think from what the committee does. And there are signs that the committee is already weighing both teams on the same level, and H2H is the tiebreaker. And if ND loses, its fair to wonder if the committee will stop weighing them on equal levels and will therefore stop needing to consider that tiebreaker.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Mdot21 on November 13, 2018, 08:03:57 PM
ND is better, too, not least because it has upgraded its quarterback play.

Maybe we should all hope for a rematch. :-)
rematch would definitely be cool. But I don't see how that happens. I think if Michigan or ND are 4 they would have to play Bama and both teams would get bounced out immediately.
Maybe we need to hope for a Clemson loss, ND to move to 2 and Michigan to move to 3 and Clemson to move down to 5 or 6 and then Georgia to move to 4 and then Alabama to beat Georgia and re-open the 4th spot for Clemson or Oklahoma.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Anonymous Coward on November 13, 2018, 08:07:30 PM
If Bama loses, it's possible the ranking is Clemson, ND, M, UGa.
I think UGa would probably pass Michigan, because Bama is so much better than OSU, but on SOS and damage of loss, they may not.
So yeah, a rematch is impossible unless both win in the national semifinal. That's the real dream.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Mdot21 on November 13, 2018, 08:08:56 PM
If Bama loses, it's possible the ranking is Clemson, ND, M, UGa.
I think UGa would probably pass Michigan, because Bama is so much better than OSU, but on SOS and damage of loss, they may not.
So yeah, a rematch is impossible unless both win in the national semifinal. That's the real dream.
wow, yeah. could you imagine a National Title match of Michigan vs ND? Might be the highest rated game ever if that happened.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: utee94 on November 13, 2018, 10:15:50 PM
I rank Michigan over Notre Dame because I like Michigan and don't like Notre Dame.

Similarly, I'd rank OU at #127.

Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: ELA on November 14, 2018, 07:54:43 AM
IMO, Dexter Williams being suspended was a bigger deal than Notre Dame playing its second best QB.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: fezzador on November 14, 2018, 08:04:08 AM
I rank Michigan over Notre Dame because I like Michigan and don't like Notre Dame.

Similarly, I'd rank OU at #127.


OU's defense is about #127.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2018, 08:13:58 AM
I think the calamity, which of course I'd love to see, is if UGA beats Bama say 26-23 in OT, to pick a score out of the blue, and Bama has been #1 all year and is 12-1.

Is that a "play in game"?  Or is it considered as just another game?  It depends on what Michigan does as well, and OU/WVU and Wazzu.  But imagine we have Clemson at 13-0 and ND at 12-0 taking the top spots.  UGA at 12-1 would be in there almost certainly, and then what?

Michigan 12-1 or Bama 12-1?  I think Wazzu and OU/WVU would be below that pair, as they are now.

One could argue that Michigan already had their shot and lost to a playoff team, but the same would be true for Bama.  Are they truly picking the "best teams"?  Or "the best teams for the playoff?"  I view those two things as being slightly different.

That would be fascinating.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Kris60 on November 14, 2018, 08:41:14 AM
I think the calamity, which of course I'd love to see, is if UGA beats Bama say 26-23 in OT, to pick a score out of the blue, and Bama has been #1 all year and is 12-1.

Is that a "play in game"?  Or is it considered as just another game?  It depends on what Michigan does as well, and OU/WVU and Wazzu.  But imagine we have Clemson at 13-0 and ND at 12-0 taking the top spots.  UGA at 12-1 would be in there almost certainly, and then what?

Michigan 12-1 or Bama 12-1?  I think Wazzu and OU/WVU would be below that pair, as they are now.

One could argue that Michigan already had their shot and lost to a playoff team, but the same would be true for Bama.  Are they truly picking the "best teams"?  Or "the best teams for the playoff?"  I view those two things as being slightly different.

That would be fascinating.
I think Michigan wouid be in over Alabama.  While this year is supposed to exist in a vacuum those are still human beings in that committee room. I think the committee would feel really queasy about putting a non champion Alabama over the Big 10 champ two years in a row, especially if this year those teams would have the exact same record.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2018, 09:07:27 AM
I'd probably go with Michigan myself, but the COM folks might go the other way.

Does last year matter at all?  If so, I might argue that Bama won it last year and that tended to validate their selection.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: rolltidefan on November 14, 2018, 09:54:54 AM
it'd be mich over bama and i don't think last season would have much if any effect on it. nor should it.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Anonymous Coward on November 14, 2018, 10:06:34 AM
IMO, Dexter Williams being suspended was a bigger deal than Notre Dame playing its second best QB.
I do too. 
Honestly, Book plays into the sets Don Brown is most comfortable with (which isn't to say that he can't excel against a running QB but that math always wins -- no defense can better defend 11 than 10 on the ground).
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Anonymous Coward on November 14, 2018, 10:08:47 AM
it'd be mich over bama and i don't think last season would have much if any effect on it. nor should it.
I think you're right but I'm also a fan, so that's nothing. Instead, I'll say that both of us would be sweating it out. It'd be close.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Anonymous Coward on November 14, 2018, 10:09:17 AM
I don't think Bama will lose, though. UGa isn't nearly as special.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: fezzador on November 14, 2018, 10:16:47 AM
Yup, last season is last season.  The committee's job is to pick the four best teams.  And a one-loss non-champ Bama showed they were better than one-loss ACC and SEC champs. 

But the eye test is a huge factor.  If Bama loses a squeaker to UGA in Atlanta, it'd likely be down to a one-loss Michigan and a one-loss Bama.  Neither team would likely have a marquee win (LSU and OSU are good but not great IMHO).  If the committee was tasked with picking the four best teams, it would probably be Clemson, Notre Dame, Georgia (assuming they win out of course) and Bama (in that order).  Why?  Because I think on a neutral field, Bama would probably beat Michigan (it'd probably be closer than a lot of people think, but the Tide would certainly be favored).

Now, for argument's sake, let's say that UGA completely runs Bama off the field in the SEC Championship Game to the tune of 52-17 (Cincy would love that, even though there's like a 0.5% chance of that happening).  If Michigan wins out, the committee would almost certainly put UM in over Bama.  As Ohio State proved last year, it's one thing to lose respectably (like they did to OU), but it's a whole different animal to lose ugly.  The later in the season it is, the worse it gets as it's fresher on the committee's mind.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Anonymous Coward on November 14, 2018, 10:22:49 AM
(...) and Bama (in that order).  Why?  Because I think on a neutral field, Bama would probably beat Michigan (it'd probably be closer than a lot of people think, but the Tide would certainly be favored).
But that's not one of their stated criteria. When teams are that close, they claim to break the tie by looking at four criteria:




And Michigan would beat Bama in the conference championship and SOS comparisons.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Anonymous Coward on November 14, 2018, 10:26:44 AM
This is the same reason the ND-M comparison is so hard right now (when they seem equal and must use the tie breakers) but may become easy peasie if ND loses and they no longer require these tie breakers to rank Michigan.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: ELA on November 14, 2018, 10:37:59 AM
Until proven otherwise, I think they'll simply rank them


They only analysis goes into distinguishing teams within those tiers.  I also think if there aren't 4 teams that fit into that, things will start to get interesting.  Is that when a Group of 5 team sneaks in?  I still suspect not, considering UCF is still well behind a 2 loss LSU, and only 1 spot ahead of a 2 loss Syracuse, that doesn't really have an outstanding resume.  I think last year UCF was behind 4 two loss non-champs?
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Kris60 on November 14, 2018, 10:49:30 AM
Until proven otherwise, I think they'll simply rank them

  • Undefeated
  • 1 loss conference champs
  • 1 loss non-champs
  • 2 loss conference champs

They only analysis goes into distinguishing teams within those tiers.  I also think if there aren't 4 teams that fit into that, things will start to get interesting.  Is that when a Group of 5 team sneaks in?  I still suspect not, considering UCF is still well behind a 2 loss LSU, and only 1 spot ahead of a 2 loss Syracuse, that doesn't really have an outstanding resume.  I think last year UCF was behind 4 two loss non-champs?
If Auburn would have beaten UGA last year you don’t think they would have been ahead of 1 loss non-champ Wisconsin?
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Mdot21 on November 14, 2018, 11:02:42 AM
if Michigan finishes 12-1 and wins the B1G and then Bama loses in the SEC CG- Bama should be out. 

If people are going to say that Michigan lost a playoff game to ND early in the season- then what the hell would Bama have just lost in the SEC CG? A playoff game at the end of the season.

Let me see- losing to an out of conference team in the opening game of the season, on the road, at night vs a playoff team (should ND win out) by 1 score SHOULD trump Bama losing on a neutral field to a conference foe.

I think it's really a moot point anyways, because I'm not 100% sure that Michigan beats OSU and I am almost 100% sure that Alabama is going to destroy Georgia.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: SFBadger96 on November 14, 2018, 11:18:07 AM
I rank Michigan over Notre Dame because I like Michigan and don't like Notre Dame.

Similarly, I'd rank OU at #127.


I like this kind of honesty.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: ELA on November 14, 2018, 11:20:17 AM
If Auburn would have beaten UGA last year you don’t think they would have been ahead of 1 loss non-champ Wisconsin?
I don't know, that's interesting.  I do think they are going to avoid 2 loss teams if at all possible.  The thing that muddies the water there is a 2 loss Big Ten champ Ohio State, which just beat Wisconsin.  They could use the TCU/Baylor argument to knock them both out and just roll with Auburn, like they did with Ohio State.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2018, 11:25:28 AM
Auburn would have been in last year with two losses.  The losses were "acceptable" and they would have had three wins over top ten teams offsetting that.

Wisconsin would have been in the discussion at 12-1, but their 12 wins lacked anything notable.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: rolltidefan on November 14, 2018, 11:35:38 AM
I think you're right but I'm also a fan, so that's nothing. Instead, I'll say that both of us would be sweating it out. It'd be close.
you'd be sweating it out, but i'd be going in expecting to be left out. i'd be pleasantly and confusingly surprised if it was bama. last year i thought we had a legit argument, this scenario i wouldn't.
having said that, if i can screw over the b1g and mich to get bama in, deserving or not, i would love. :29:
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Kris60 on November 14, 2018, 12:11:25 PM
I don't know, that's interesting.  I do think they are going to avoid 2 loss teams if at all possible.  The thing that muddies the water there is a 2 loss Big Ten champ Ohio State, which just beat Wisconsin.  They could use the TCU/Baylor argument to knock them both out and just roll with Auburn, like they did with Ohio State.
Going into the CCG last year a two loss Auburn was ranked #2 in the country while an undefeated Wisconsin was #4.  The committee was all in on Auburn.  They weren’t trying to avoid putting them in there.  They would have definitely been in there over a one loss Wisconsin and, if Miami has beaten Pitt, a one loss Miami.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Kris60 on November 18, 2018, 03:58:56 PM
Through games played on Nov. 17

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. ND
4. Michigan
5. UGA
6. OU
7. Wazzu
8. Ohio St
9. UCF
10. LSU
11. WVU
12. Texas
13. Penn St
14. Washington
15. Kentucky
16. Utah
17. Florida
18. Mississippi St
19. Texas A&M
20. Duke
21. Northwestern
22. Iowa
23. Boise St
24. Pitt
25. Oregon
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2018, 04:05:43 PM
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Michigan
5. Georgia
6. Washington State
7. Oklahoma
8. LSU
9. UCF
10. Ohio State
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 18, 2018, 06:05:13 PM
I'm sick and tired of the limitations of the poll voters.  No, their polls don't matter, but it's a larger point.
WV loses yesterday, they drop in the polls.  Fine.  They fall right behind Texas in both polls.  Their win over the Horns 2 weeks ago is rendered meaningless.  
WV has one fewer loss than Texas, but the idiotic voters are slaves to WHEN you lose, still.  Why did WV and Texas bother playing their game????  Why have the last-second win?  Why go for two?  Two weeks later it's thrown out the window.  
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2018, 06:19:26 PM
well, at least they weren't lazy and simply put WV ahead of Texas because they have one fewer loss
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 18, 2018, 09:24:50 PM
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. Notre Dame
5. Washington State
6. Georgia
7. LSU
8. West Virginia
9. Oklahoma
10. Ohio State
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2018, 09:41:31 PM
I'm sick and tired of the limitations of the poll voters.  No, their polls don't matter, but it's a larger point.
WV loses yesterday, they drop in the polls.  Fine.  They fall right behind Texas in both polls.  Their win over the Horns 2 weeks ago is rendered meaningless.  
WV has one fewer loss than Texas, but the idiotic voters are slaves to WHEN you lose, still.  Why did WV and Texas bother playing their game????  Why have the last-second win?  Why go for two?  Two weeks later it's thrown out the window.  
Wait, you complain that the sheeple voters are slaves to total losses and just rank teams in order of their losses.
Then when they fail to follow that narrative, you complain they they are NOT slaves to total losses, and you invent some new reason to bash them and feel superior.
I find that... fascinating.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2018, 09:46:01 PM
And for my own personal opinion, I'd rank WVU ahead of Texas.  And it's not because of total losses and it's not really even because of H2H  I've just watched both teams play and I think WVU is a more complete team than Texas.  Just my opinion, obviously.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 18, 2018, 11:14:43 PM
Wait, you complain that the sheeple voters are slaves to total losses and just rank teams in order of their losses.
Then when they fail to follow that narrative, you complain they they are NOT slaves to total losses, and you invent some new reason to bash them and feel superior.
I find that... fascinating.
Thanks for injecting the "feel superior" bit in there.  Very cool.
Both things are true.  Being a slave to the number of losses when ranking teams is lazy.  WV and Texas play in the same conference and in it they play every other team.  Their schedules are nearly identical, WV has one fewer loss AND beat them h2h.   
So what we have here is a combination of things:
I'm vocal about h2h being overstated, and in this instance WV has it over Texas.
I'm vocal that ranking teams by number of losses is lazy.
I've seen them both play and think WV is better.  AND they beat UT.  AND they have fewer losses. 
So while each one of those individually isn't deterministic, all 3 together build a case.  A case the voters have ignored.  Their reason?  WHEN they lost.  Anywho, the committee is far less a slave to WHEN teams lose, thank god.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: utee94 on November 18, 2018, 11:17:32 PM
Lulz.  You're welcome for the "feel superior" bit.  It was completely appropriate based on your long posting history.  If the shoe fits.

Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 18, 2018, 11:33:04 PM
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. Notre Dame
5. Washington State
6. Georgia
7. LSU
8. West Virginia
9. Oklahoma
10. Ohio State
last week you had Texas at #9.
They win impressively over a solid Iowa State team and they're out?
just asking.....
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 19, 2018, 12:58:31 AM
No, I forgot them.  They're still at 9, with OU at 10.  




It doesn't take much to feel superior to one of the poll voters.  Most wildlife are...you may even be as well.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 19, 2018, 08:03:47 AM
Ohio State is one better thrown pass from being about 17th.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 19, 2018, 12:16:14 PM
that can probably be said about multiple teams, above and below #17
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 19, 2018, 12:48:23 PM
Army and Pitt became the 52nd and 53rd teams to be ranked this season, setting a record for the most ranked teams since the poll expanded to 25 in 1989. The previous high was 51 teams ranked in 2008.

This doesn't sound lazy.............
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 19, 2018, 01:05:26 PM
No, I forgot them.  They're still at 9, with OU at 10.  




It doesn't take much to feel superior to one of the poll voters.  Most wildlife are...you may even be as well.
Maybe you should take more than 5 minutes when doing this.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 19, 2018, 01:07:22 PM
My perception is that there are 5-7 very good to great teams this year.  Then there are 5-7 teams with pretty glaring issues, and the remainder of the ranked teams are not very good.

I don't know is this is unusual this year but it seems like the gap between top 5 or so and 10-25 is larger than normal.  I'm not sure Ohio State would beat any top 20 team neutral field right now 4 times out of 10.

Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 19, 2018, 01:56:16 PM
you're not big on Urban's crew at this point are you?
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 19, 2018, 02:11:33 PM
Nope, something is seriously ailing that Buckeye team like I have not seen before.  Losing Bosa was a hit, but it should not be this much of a hit.  I'd like a count of how many 65 yard plus plays they have allowed on defense this year versus any year in the past 20 and how much rushing yardage they have versus any past year.

Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 19, 2018, 03:45:32 PM
Army and Pitt became the 52nd and 53rd teams to be ranked this season, setting a record for the most ranked teams since the poll expanded to 25 in 1989. The previous high was 51 teams ranked in 2008.

This doesn't sound lazy.............
Boy, you really want me to be wrong, don't you?
It is lazy, actually, because they automatically drop a team that loses out of the rankings, look around for the unranked team with the best record, and throw them in.   
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 19, 2018, 04:02:57 PM
I drop a team that loses out of the rankings and look around for some unranked team to add also.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 19, 2018, 04:03:10 PM
I suppose there is a rational alternative somewhere.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 19, 2018, 10:57:46 PM
Well let's take Cincinnati.  They were barely ranked and played undefeated, highly-ranked UCF, they lost.  But weren't they supposed to lose?  
So they lose the team they're supposed to lose to and they're moved out of the top 25 and replaced with Whoever State. 

Why?  Because it's a herd of 61 sheep.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 20, 2018, 06:08:40 AM
I imagine some of these sheep ranked Cincinnati, right?  Others getting votes?

AS I said way back, these folks are busy, they spend MAYBE 5 minutes on this, at most.  They know their contribution is of "limited" influence anyway.  Round up the usual suspects.

This is why folks wanted to try computers back in the day.  "We" learned that algorithms are subject to weirdness at times.  Thanks Al Gore!!!

Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 20, 2018, 01:46:37 PM
This is why folks wanted to try computers back in the day.  "We" learned that algorithms are subject to weirdness at times.  Thanks Al Gore!!!


By this, I think you meant "We learned that algorithms don't contain nearly as much of the inherent bias as people do."  Right?
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 20, 2018, 01:56:20 PM
No, I mean what I said, algorithms are the classic example of GIGO.

And that is why we almost NEVER hear about computer rankings today.  If they had any real value, they'd be front and center.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Kris60 on November 20, 2018, 02:47:41 PM
By this, I think you meant "We learned that algorithms don't contain nearly as much of the inherent bias as people do."  Right?
I’m with CD on this.  Some of the stuff these computers spit out defies explanation.  Sagarin is one of the more well known and cited computer rankings.  Here are some of his current gems.
Iowa is 7-4 and ranked 8th in the country with a SOS of 32.
Penn St is 8-3 with a SOS of 16 and a win over Iowa.  They are ranked 10th.
Mississippi St is 7-4 and ranked 9th in the country with a SOS of 27.
LSU is 9-2 with a SOS of 20 and a win over Miss St.  They are ranked 15th.
Oh, and North Dakota St is ranked 23rd in the country.  Not in FBS, but including all the FCS teams.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 20, 2018, 02:51:57 PM
One year here "we" devised our own computer ranking system with help from The Bobs.  It ended up  being "OK" as I recall, but only in the sense that it mostly mirrored the AP poll.

Yay, great accomplishment.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 20, 2018, 10:47:03 PM
most reasonable systems mirror the lazy AP poll
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 20, 2018, 11:55:04 PM
No, I mean what I said, algorithms are the classic example of GIGO.

And that is why we almost NEVER hear about computer rankings today.  If they had any real value, they'd be front and center.
I couldn't disagree more. 
People don't trust objective computer rankings over people rankings.  Sort of like self-driving cars.  90% of traffic deaths could be averted with self-driving cars, but because there'd be no one to blame when a fatality did occur, no one wants them to catch on.
Computers were once used in college football, but not really.  Didn't trust them enough to use their actual algorithms, they were dictated to and compromised.  
If people were so smart, we'd trust the objective computers.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 20, 2018, 11:56:27 PM
most reasonable systems mirror the lazy AP poll
How do you define "reasonable"?
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 20, 2018, 11:57:02 PM
btw, the committee having Florida at 11 is nuts.  Florida is nowhere near the 11th-best team in the country.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2018, 07:00:52 AM
Which team below Florida is better?

A lot of teams LOOK over ranked until you check the alternatives who look no better.

We all have opinions.  Computer algorithms are just complex human opinions, in general, adjusted by humans over time to make them appear to be "more reasonable", which means, more like human polls.  I bet with time one could perfect an algorithm that would mimic the AP poll 90% or better.  

And what would that accomplish?

And of course in football, you have the inherent problem of lack of syllogism.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2018, 07:03:32 AM
Now, in self driving cars we have a very objective metric by which we can assess the validity of the various sensors and algorithms.  That's why they are being tested now, with humans as backups.

We'll get there, perhaps sooner than many expect, especially on freeways.  The Cadillac CT6 system is already there on freeways.

But in that car if the driver takes his eyes off the road for any period of time, the system alerts and starts to cancel itself.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2018, 07:06:50 AM
Given however many people choose to make polls here, perhaps 20, probably less, we see that the polls differ, usually they vary more as you get lower in the rankings.  Part of that is that humans are less concerned about who is ranked 25th, or 20th, than the top 5 or so.  Part of it is difference of opinion, some is difference in knowledge.  We're more familiar with teams in our conference, teams we just watched, recent history, etc.  Is any one of us right and others less right?

If one of us spent three hours on this, are they apt to be more right than I who spends 5 minutes?  Perhaps, perhaps not.  We'll never know.  That's why preseason I'm more interested in who appears to be most over ranked and under ranked.  I had Miami in the latter and Florida in the former, decent guesses on my part.  But, really just guesses.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: bayareabadger on November 21, 2018, 07:26:11 AM
btw, the committee having Florida at 11 is nuts.  Florida is nowhere near the 11th-best team in the country.
I think you’re falling victim to a certain fallicy. You’re imagining the 11th-best team in the country has to be a certain thing, a certain level of quality. And it doesn’t. It just has to be better than the batch of teams from 10-20 or so. And Florida might be because it’s a jumbled middle. 
They’re 18in S&P, 21 in FEI becuase the Idaho game turned FCS, 15 in Massey, They’re lower in SRS and sagarin, 21 and 24 respectively. They’ve got one loss that makes sense, one against a team that’s good by the old measures, one that’s good by the new ones (Mizzou). In terms of wins, there’s one very good one (LSU) and one pretty good one (the numbers love MSU).
Since we’re not being lazy, let’s work it out. If UF isn’t close to 11, that means they’d be at best No. 18, probably in the 20s. Who is your list of better teams?
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2018, 07:28:11 AM
As noted, once "we" get past about 10th, the remaining teams all have significant flaws on their record.  
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Kris60 on November 21, 2018, 10:31:50 AM
Which team below Florida is better?

A lot of teams LOOK over ranked until you check the alternatives who look no better.

We all have opinions.  Computer algorithms are just complex human opinions, in general, adjusted by humans over time to make them appear to be "more reasonable", which means, more like human polls.  I bet with time one could perfect an algorithm that would mimic the AP poll 90% or better.  

And what would that accomplish?

And of course in football, you have the inherent problem of lack of syllogism.
I have Florida #16 in my rankings.  Not that my opinion is the standard but I’m with OAM that of all the teams in the top 25 Florida is probably more over valued than any other team, imo.
I have WVU, Texas, Penn St, Washington, and Kentucky all ranked ahead of the Gators.  Kentucky, with the same record, a head to head win, more wins over teams with winning records, and as many ranked wins being four spots below UF seems especially baffling to me.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2018, 12:06:49 PM
Solid logic.  I don't disagree.  UF and UK played Georgia about the same in my opinion.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 21, 2018, 12:42:31 PM
I have Florida #16 in my rankings.  Not that my opinion is the standard but I’m with OAM that of all the teams in the top 25 Florida is probably more over valued than any other team, imo.
some would blame SEC bias
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2018, 12:43:46 PM
The most obvious explanation would be helmet.  That may not be the right explanation, but given the analysis above, it seems very plausible.

One might hope the committee looked deeper into things and didn't let helmet be too much of a factor, but perhaps they don't.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 21, 2018, 12:59:44 PM
well, you can look deeply and then decide its very close and then use SEC or helmet bias to provide the tie breaker when other things are equal

they know, like we do, that no one ever really knows what team is better
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Kris60 on November 21, 2018, 01:02:02 PM
some would blame SEC bias
I have no idea.  Maybe.  I don’t get too worked up if I rank a team in a particular slot and someone else ranks them a couple of spots differently.  Most of the time I can see the logic of it even I don’t necessarily agree.  But I have found where they have put Florida especially curious this year.  But I also think they are over valuing LSU so I guess they are over valuing Florida’s win over them.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2018, 01:06:52 PM
If we're talking about UF being ranked ahead of UK, it could be helmet, but not SEC bias.

https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings

These four "polls" are pretty much the same anyway.  The three quasi human polls have UF at 13 and the Committee at 11.

Eh.

Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 21, 2018, 01:54:39 PM
yup, there's more good thought and logic behind these polls than Orangeman would like to believe

besides, they are simply polls - just subjective opinions

nothing to get too riled up about
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2018, 02:05:47 PM
Obviously, "we here" tend to look into such matters most closely than most fans.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: bamajoe on November 21, 2018, 02:21:54 PM
I am sorry but the current Kentucky team that just got hammered by Tennessee could not hold a candle to the Kentucky team of two months ago and having Florida above them in the standings is completely justified. Sometimes teams run out of steam. That is what happened to Kentucky.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: bamajoe on November 21, 2018, 02:27:54 PM
If computers were the end all for rating football teams they would all have similar conclusions. They don't. They are all different. Ergo, they are no better than human polls.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2018, 02:33:42 PM
They arguably are worse.  I believe they are definitely worse early in the season, and arguably worse even now.  That is why you  have to look pretty hard to find any there days, and they do vary quite a bit because the algorithms are different.  Which one is right?  We really have no idea.

Part of that is because the team that is 18th will beat a team that is 5th about 30% of the time, and that means "We" have absolute knowledge and omniscience and KNOW the real rankings.

And of course Week One rankings would change over time even if We had omniscience.

Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 21, 2018, 04:58:46 PM
If computers were the end all for rating football teams they would all have similar conclusions. They don't. They are all different. Ergo, they are no better than human polls.
Well, no better than the humans that programed them.
I'd really like to see what some crazy AI rankings would look like.  
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 21, 2018, 05:03:22 PM
I am sorry but the current Kentucky team that just got hammered by Tennessee could not hold a candle to the Kentucky team of two months ago and having Florida above them in the standings is completely justified. Sometimes teams run out of steam. That is what happened to Kentucky.
Most people seem to think this way, but again, this is all about the sliding scale of resume vs eye test.  Right now, UK's resume is stronger than its eye test.  So is Florida's.  
I think those are the teams largely thought to have been overranked in a given week.
Back to Florida - I wouldn't pick them to beat Penn St, WV, or Texas.  In face, I believe WV would curb-stomp us.  Warshington would probably beat us, maybe Utah at their place....then it's back-and-forth yes-and-no vs the teams all the way down to A&M at #22.  By saying "there's no way Florida is 11th" is that I'm valuing eye test either equal to resume or a little higher than resume.  By ranking the Gators 11th, the committee seems to be relying on resume a little heavily than I am.
And who is more of an authority on Florida, them or me?  
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 21, 2018, 08:47:33 PM
you are, of course
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 21, 2018, 08:52:45 PM
That was rhetorical.  You have a much more precise knowledge of UNL than any voter that doesn't cover the Huskers.  
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: bayareabadger on November 21, 2018, 09:33:09 PM
That was rhetorical.  You have a much more precise knowledge of UNL than any voter that doesn't cover the Huskers.  
One could argue that’s good and bad. You might have an implicit bias to notice the flaws more than other teams’ flaws. 
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Kris60 on November 21, 2018, 09:44:25 PM
One could argue that’s good and bad. You might have an implicit bias to notice the flaws more than other teams’ flaws.

I agree.  Knowledge of your own team with an emotional attachment is a double edged sword.  OAM has been much higher on WVU all season than I have.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 21, 2018, 10:25:28 PM
True, but if I'm "too" hard on my Gators, it's because of my knowledge of them.  I'd take the '08 or '96 Gators vs anybody, and my confidence is in direct relation to their quality of play.  Florida is 8-3.  2 of those are FCS.  So 6-3.  Lost 2 games it was favored and upset LSU.  The most specific difference in Florida this year is it's offense - instead of ranking in the 100s, it's in the 60s.  An offense in the 60s is good enough to score big on crap teams, but clams up really badly against defenses with a pulse.


I'm afraid the committee voters are even a lot like a TV announcing crew.  They fly in, get the depth chart, find out how to pronounce everyone's name, and get a narrative blurb on the team.  Interview a few of the notables, and then announce their game as if they have ANY familiarity with the team.  They do a pretty good job, considering, but slip up plenty - to the eyes and ears familiar with the program.


Ranking Florida 11th isn't criminal, but it isn't correct, either.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: bayareabadger on November 21, 2018, 10:57:53 PM
True, but if I'm "too" hard on my Gators, it's because of my knowledge of them.  I'd take the '08 or '96 Gators vs anybody, and my confidence is in direct relation to their quality of play.  Florida is 8-3.  2 of those are FCS.  So 6-3.  Lost 2 games it was favored and upset LSU.  The most specific difference in Florida this year is it's offense - instead of ranking in the 100s, it's in the 60s.  An offense in the 60s is good enough to score big on crap teams, but clams up really badly against defenses with a pulse.


I'm afraid the committee voters are even a lot like a TV announcing crew.  They fly in, get the depth chart, find out how to pronounce everyone's name, and get a narrative blurb on the team.  Interview a few of the notables, and then announce their game as if they have ANY familiarity with the team.  They do a pretty good job, considering, but slip up plenty - to the eyes and ears familiar with the program.


Ranking Florida 11th isn't criminal, but it isn't correct, either.
The offense compared to great Florida teams means nothing to being No.11. Just doesn’t. Losing in games when you’re forced, especially one early in the season is not even that useful a metric, other than it hurts the feelings of bettors and that team’s fans. 
Being worse than No. 11 means arguing why PSU or Miss State or Fresno State or four-loss Mizzou are better. And that’s a whole other thing. 
(There’s a super good argument Florida isn’t No. 11, especially if you don’t want to use resume. But the main rankings are more resume than anything else. So unless you qualify it, it’s harder to say they’re clearly not No. 11)
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: bayareabadger on November 21, 2018, 11:01:03 PM
They arguably are worse.  I believe they are definitely worse early in the season, and arguably worse even now.  That is why you  have to look pretty hard to find any there days, and they do vary quite a bit because the algorithms are different.  Which one is right?  We really have no idea.

Part of that is because the team that is 18th will beat a team that is 5th about 30% of the time, and that means "We" have absolute knowledge and omniscience and KNOW the real rankings.

And of course Week One rankings would change over time even if We had omniscience.


None are right or wrong because there is no right or wrong.
Computer rankings at least maintain internal logic. That’s their strength and why they’re often instructive, though not gospel.
(The preseason rankings are interesting because they tend to be oddly good predictors. This is becuase the sport is mostly static. I can’t say if we’re better because I don’t know what “we” are and I doubt we land that far from the preseason consensus)
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2018, 05:57:27 AM
How would you personally rank a team that started out "house afire" and won 8 straight over some top level teams and then had injuries and lost the next 3 to midlevel teams?  They are 8-3 now, not that impressive, but they also have 3-4 impressive wins, early in the season, and an 'excuse".  Body of work?  Or how they are now?

Consider whether the injuries are season ending versys "out for three weeks".

In a less dramatic situation perhaps, imagine a team looks great, has two key injuries, and loses two late season games to finish 11-2, but the players are supposed to be back in 3 weeks.  Take Alabama as an example, great looking team, 3 critical injuries and they lose to Auburn and UGA to finish 11-2, do they merit consideration for the playoff or not?
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2018, 08:56:02 AM
The reverse is also interesting, a team somewhat like Ga Tech this year, only more so.  They start out say 1-4, losing to Bama and Clemson and Auburn, and then get rolling and get to 8-4 beating some good teams and obviously hitting stride, perhaps with a QB change a la ND.

They might be favored end of the year over most 10-1 teams.  Should they be ranked ahead of them, or not?

Yes, I corrected my silly 8-3 record. :88:
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 22, 2018, 09:29:43 AM
Getting to 8-3 after a 1-4 start would indeed be amazing.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 22, 2018, 09:32:05 AM
Getting to 8-3 after a 1-4 start would indeed be amazing.
:021:
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 22, 2018, 09:37:12 AM
I prefer body of work over how are they playing now

injuries and other strange things happen in college football, early in the season and late in the season

to be a truly great team and merit a top 4 slot, you need to come out of the gate well and not stumble early
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2018, 10:09:33 AM
Getting to 8-3 after a 1-4 start would indeed be amazing.
They are THAT good ...
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 22, 2018, 10:15:45 AM
I prefer body of work over how are they playing now

injuries and other strange things happen in college football, early in the season and late in the season

to be a truly great team and merit a top 4 slot, you need to come out of the gate well and not stumble early
So much this. 

Injuries are part of football. The schools that have enough depth to withstand them are better "teams" than the ones that don't.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2018, 10:20:07 AM
This is one reason polls numbers vary so much.

1.  Body of work folks.
2.  How they are playing NOW folks.
3.  Who would beat who in an NF folks.
4.  Some kind of eye test or other
5.  Helmet.
6.  Some blend of the above.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: utee94 on November 22, 2018, 10:36:05 AM
^^^^^

But mostly helmet. :)
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 22, 2018, 10:39:34 AM
Then there is the "best teams for the playoff", as opposed to simply "the best teams".

I submit there is a difference between the two, perhaps subtle, but in an important way.

Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 22, 2018, 11:14:38 AM
I prefer body of work over how are they playing now

injuries and other strange things happen in college football, early in the season and late in the season

to be a truly great team and merit a top 4 slot, you need to come out of the gate well and not stumble early
This.  Not 100% this, but this.
We can all agree a team in November can be "better' than the same team in September.
BUT...what happens in September matters.  It happened.  
Imo, too many people throw it out, and start endorsing the 10-3 team who stunk in September as a viable "best team at the end of the season" crap.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 22, 2018, 11:32:43 AM
So much this.

Injuries are part of football. The schools that have enough depth to withstand them are better "teams" than the ones that don't.
not only this, but ya gotta have a bit of good luck to either go undefeated or only one loss
yes, September games count
unfortunately this leads some teams to schedule lightly in September
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 22, 2018, 12:14:49 PM
When we have auto bids for Conference champs, it will then behoove teams to schedule a tougher nonCon slate in order to prepare themselves for the rigors of their Conference schedule.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 22, 2018, 12:45:43 PM
right, in your dreams
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 22, 2018, 12:53:23 PM
I do indeed dream of the day that we have auto-bids for Conference champs as a result of a slightly expanded playoff field. It is going to be awesome when that happens.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Kris60 on November 22, 2018, 12:56:59 PM
One of the reasons I prefer body of work as opposed to how they are playing now is the break from the postseason to the regular season.

If they jumped right into the playoffs after the regular season ended then maybe I’d be more open to considering how a team was playing at the moment.  But the regular season ends and everyone takes a month off and then comes back and plays.  It’s like hitting a reset button.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 22, 2018, 12:57:19 PM
They'd schedule 3-4 cupcakes to avoid injuries to starters and acquire meaningful depth.  At leas the smart ones would.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 22, 2018, 12:59:32 PM
I won't be as thankful as you

will we then be forced to abandon conference championship games between divisions?

or does an upset winner such as Northwestern w/4 losses get an autobid?
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 22, 2018, 01:09:34 PM
Northwestern would get the auto-bid of course.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 22, 2018, 01:17:38 PM
so, the uproar won't be the end of conference champ games?

Dern it!
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 22, 2018, 01:29:39 PM
That doesn't appear to be the direction we are heading, but anything is possible I suppose.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 22, 2018, 01:33:22 PM
so, the uproar won't be the end of conference champ games?

Dern it!
The fans wouldn't want to see a crap team win a CCG and make it into the playoff, but the other conferences would love it.  Depends who you think is wagging the dog - fans or insider decision-makers.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 22, 2018, 02:14:09 PM
well, with 4 or 6 teams allowed there is going to be a team in there that isn't great

for example:  last season #4 Washington lost by 17 and #3 OSU lost by 31 in the first round
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 22, 2018, 02:35:38 PM
We all can't wait to see Bama's backups playing in the 3rd quarter of a national championship playoff game vs Northwestern!!!
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: bayareabadger on November 22, 2018, 03:02:10 PM
How would you personally rank a team that started out "house afire" and won 8 straight over some top level teams and then had injuries and lost the next 3 to midlevel teams?  They are 8-3 now, not that impressive, but they also have 3-4 impressive wins, early in the season, and an 'excuse".  Body of work?  Or how they are now?

Consider whether the injuries are season ending versys "out for three weeks".

In a less dramatic situation perhaps, imagine a team looks great, has two key injuries, and loses two late season games to finish 11-2, but the players are supposed to be back in 3 weeks.  Take Alabama as an example, great looking team, 3 critical injuries and they lose to Auburn and UGA to finish 11-2, do they merit consideration for the playoff or not?
I tend to shy away from the time aspect. They just play so few games. Things shift so much. Trends are a little about perception. I know some people like them, but ones I like more don’t. 
I like to rank teams by resume, at least after 6-7 games. When you say “who would win on a neutral,” I’d call those ratings. 
On Bama in that case, I don’t consider them unless I’m short on contenders. There could be a year where that happens (this year), but the games you lose count. Count for Bama, count for everyone. I consider them, but not ahead of a lot of other teams. 
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on November 22, 2018, 03:35:17 PM
Pretty tall odds that Northwestern would beat the OSU-Michigan winner, but if they do then to the Victor go the spoils.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 23, 2018, 07:32:30 AM
It would be ironic to rank a team that was 10-2 but playing really well at the end of the season after a 1-2 start at say 10th and another team that was 11-1 but had sketchy wins and one bad loss say 7th, if most folks figured the first team would beat the second team handily.

Ironic may not be the best word.  Why do we rank teams?  Obviously one reason is to make the top bowl/playoff pairings, but why else?  Why doesn't anyone care about the AP poll?  Does it not relate to who would beat who in a NF?

I realize match ups can play a role in this calculus.  This is why a "Power Poll" can differ from a "regular poll" if the former is based more on who would beat who.

But polls don't really provide guidelines you just vote however you want.  At least the committee has a kind of guideline although it's not clear what it means.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 23, 2018, 09:37:15 AM
the polls were more a sense of pride for the fans and a sense of accomplishment for the players and coaches

simply an acknowledgement of a good team, the higher the ranking the better the team in relation to their peers

and of course, the controversy and arguments by fans made the polls popular

only recently have the polls or some ranking been used to determine matchups at the end of the season
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: TyphonInc on November 23, 2018, 08:53:02 PM
unfortunately this leads MOST teams to schedule lightly in September
FIFY
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2018, 08:06:57 AM
SEC teams, aside from rivalry games, tend to schedule any P5 OOC opponents early in the season, if not Game One.

Part of that is because teams often play only in conference games after Week 4 or so.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Temp430 on November 25, 2018, 09:07:45 AM
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgia
5. Ohio State
6. Oklahoma
7. West Virginia
8. Michigan
9. UCF
10. Washington
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2018, 09:17:17 AM
Part of me is listening to the "Clemson hasn't played anybody with a heartbeat" yet.  Their secondary was somewhat exposed last night against USCe, a team which struggled in the SEC.

What is their most impressive win to date?  A&M on the road by 2?  Edging 9-3 Syracuse at home by 4?

Beating NCSU soundly at home?  

I dunno, not a whole lot of track record there, certainly no opponent anywhere near top ten caliber, and only one ranked opponent.





Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 25, 2018, 11:48:36 AM
1. Bammer
2. Tiggers
3. Domers
4. Dawgs
5. Bucks
6. Boomers
7. Knights
8. Wolvies
not much for 2-loss teams?
9. Nittany Lions -all 3 losses to solid teams
10. Cougars - cause I like the Pirate
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 25, 2018, 02:47:55 PM
AP Top 25 poll

1. Alabama (61)
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgia
5. Oklahoma
6. Ohio State
7. UCF
8. Michigan
9. Texas
10. Washington
11. Florida
12. Washington State
12. LSU
14. Penn State
15. West Virginia
16. Kentucky
17. Utah
18. Syracuse
19. Boise State
20. Mississippi State
21. Northwestern
22. Texas A&M
23. Army
24. Iowa State
25. Fresno State
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 25, 2018, 03:01:13 PM
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Georgia
4. Notre Dame
5. Michigan
6. Texas
7. Ohio State
8. Oklahoma
9. Washington State
10. West Virginia
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: rook119 on November 25, 2018, 04:49:21 PM
5. Oklahoma
6. UCF
7. Ohio State

Georgia is in if they win - top 2 are in if they lose 
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 25, 2018, 05:38:33 PM
Nice to see Army ranked.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 25, 2018, 08:37:34 PM

Georgia is in if they win - top 2 are in if they lose
I think Bmam should be in if they lose to the Dawgs, dern fine team
but, if Clemson loses to Pitt???  it's questionable, of course not any good 2 loss teams
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 26, 2018, 08:36:43 AM
The candidates among 2 loss teams are, well, nonexistent really.  If we have mayhem this weekend, I think UCF gets the nod, and 12-1 Bama.

That presumes OSU and OU both lose, which is faintly possible.  OSU has shown they can be pretty mediocre this season.  OU has shown they can lose to Texas this season.

Clemson has really not "played anybody", other than perhaps Syracuse, if you count that one.

Bama's closest brush with a loss was a half time tie with, wait for it, the Citadel.

Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: ELA on November 26, 2018, 09:15:08 AM

Can we just end it there?  Falls off a cliff after #8.  I guess LSU and Kentucky?
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 26, 2018, 09:34:56 AM
Texas and Washington, a la the AP????

Do you realize how many ranked teams Clemson has played this season?   Number 18 Syracuse, and they beat them by four, at home, and No., 22 A&M who they beat by 2. Clemson has looked good beating a bunch of bad teams.  The two teams they played with a bit of a pulse they beat by a total of 6 points.

Maybe we can credit them with being better with the new QB fully present, but they were struggling with Syracuse before he was hurt.

I'm not sold on Clemson.  I think ND is better, or at least has better wins.

Of course, mighty Bama has only defeated three, LSU, MSU, and A&M.  UGA has only wins over two and a loss to one.

Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: ELA on November 26, 2018, 09:57:17 AM
Texas and Washington, a la the AP????

Do you realize how many ranked teams Clemson has played this season?   Number 18 Syracuse, and they beat them by four, at home, and No., 22 A&M who they beat by 2. Clemson has looked good beating a bunch of bad teams.  The two teams they played with a bit of a pulse they beat by a total of 6 points.
Yeah, I dropped them below Notre Dame this week for the first time all season.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: rook119 on November 26, 2018, 10:22:41 PM
I think Bmam should be in if they lose to the Dawgs, dern fine team
but, if Clemson loses to Pitt???  it's questionable, of course not any good 2 loss teams
Clemson would have to get crushed by Pitt. Which is very unlikely. Miami's DL crushed pitt's OL (who lost their best player on the OL 2 weeks ago) and Clemson's DL is similar in talent. 
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 26, 2018, 11:05:34 PM
Yeah, resume is part of the equation, not the equation.  Same with Bama.  
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 26, 2018, 11:06:44 PM
Part of me is listening to the "Clemson hasn't played anybody with a heartbeat" yet.  






Opposing coaches might hopefully think this....until their OL has to block their DL.  Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 26, 2018, 11:08:18 PM
"Oh, they (UCF) haven't played anybody."  - roster full of 2 and 3* kids
"Oh, they (Bama/Clemson) haven't played anybody."  - roster full of 4 and 5* kids




If that didn't matter, coaches wouldn't worry so much about recruiting.
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: FearlessF on November 26, 2018, 11:13:04 PM
regardless of stars on the roster

play somebody

impressive wins are impressive
Title: Re: Post Your Top 10
Post by: Cincydawg on November 27, 2018, 07:57:23 AM
The only team I think is good is Alabama.  I'd have ND second because they seem to be playing better than earlier in the year.  Clemson to me looks a bit suspect, they were somewhat shredded by USCe.  UGA is looking better, but that loss at LSU is still a loss.

If somehow UGA lucks out and beats Bama, the ensuing chorus of "NOT AGAIN!!!" will be choice.