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Topic: Post Your Top 10

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Cincydawg

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #84 on: November 12, 2018, 09:06:50 PM »
If this was something important to you, you'd be arguing the other way.  The argument against taking it seriously and producing your best ranking is...well nobody else does it?  Is that a message you'd send to a kid about something?  
It isn't important to me, or to AP sportswriters, or to coaches, or to anyone else.  They do have important stuff, it's about prioritizing.
And yes, I would send this message to a kid or anyone else, figure out what's really important and focus on that.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2018, 07:46:49 AM by Cincydawg »

FearlessF

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #85 on: November 13, 2018, 03:15:15 PM »
All I know is that listing the top 3 undefeateds, then the next 6 one-loss teams, then a courtesy UCF at 10th is lazy A F.
here's your not lazy ranking
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. Notre Dame
5. West Virginia
6. Georgia
7. Ohio State
8. Washington State
9. Texas
10. Oklahoma
compared to my lazy ranking
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Michigan
5. Georgia
6. Oklahoma
7. Washington State
8. West Virginia
9. Ohio State
10. UCF
same 9 teams, some a couple spots up or down
our biggest difference is the Sooners - 4 spots
your extensive research gives the Longhorns over the Knights as the difference
I guess time will tell.  This week Texas favored by 3 over ISU, UCF favored by 7.5 over Cincy
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Cincydawg

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #86 on: November 13, 2018, 03:30:17 PM »
The OU at 10 versus 6 "question" is moot anyway.  Maybe they should be 10, maybe 6, maybe higher.  If we accumulate these opinions, as the AP does, then they end up at 8, if there are only two opinions.  If there are 58 opinions, they probably end up 6 or 7.  

And there is currently no metric for deciding which is correct, it's OPINION.  Now, maybe down the road OU wins out and finishes at 5, and then gets hammered in a bowl game, then we might figure 10 was really about right for them, and there they go.

The only relevant rankings are the penultimate ones, or THE penultimate one:

Playoff teams
NY6 teams
bowl teams
not bowl teams.

Where OU is placed NOW means squat, and giving deep thought to whether they should be at 6 or 10 is pointless, to me.

Mdot21

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #87 on: November 13, 2018, 04:46:36 PM »
If Oklahoma even had a mediocre defense I'd rank them #3 because that offense is otherworldly. Their defense is just soooooooooo bad.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #88 on: November 13, 2018, 05:01:26 PM »
The OU at 10 versus 6 "question" is moot anyway.  Maybe they should be 10, maybe 6, maybe higher.  If we accumulate these opinions, as the AP does, then they end up at 8, if there are only two opinions.  If there are 58 opinions, they probably end up 6 or 7.  

And there is currently no metric for deciding which is correct, it's OPINION.  

This is correct, BUT if we simply listed the teams based on number of losses and where they started in the preseason poll, that rankings list would almost definitely be incorrect.  So that's all I'm harping on - let's not all rank the teams in a manner that is most especially incorrect.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #89 on: November 13, 2018, 05:02:53 PM »
You know what's crazy?  
UCF will likely have won 25 straight games AND not deserve a playoff spot.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Mdot21

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #90 on: November 13, 2018, 05:06:57 PM »
You know what's crazy?  
UCF will likely have won 25 straight games AND not deserve a playoff spot.
What's more crazy is they are probably legitimately the best football team in the state of Florida.
Florida State and Miami both just suck. Florida is playing with a depleted secondary and terrible QB.
I think UCF would beat all 3 of those teams on a neutral site. I know for sure they'd whoop Florida State and Miami.

SFBadger96

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #91 on: November 13, 2018, 05:55:56 PM »
I'm amused by the Michigan over Notre Dame crowd.

Let's go to the tape. Head-to-head: ND had the win.

But Michigan has improved so much! Not ND, though--despite replacing their quarterback (the one who beat Michigan).

Common opponent: Northwestern: Michigan came from behind to win by three at Northwestern. Notre Dame never trailed, built a 14-point lead in the third quarter, and won by ten at Northwestern.

To be fair, Michigan has blown out a lot of teams, and has four wins over P5 teams with winning records, 7-3 Penn State having the best record of the bunch. Notre Dame also has four wins over P5 teams with winning records--and, of course, 9-1 Michigan is one of those.

Michigan does have the better stats, though. So there's that.

Anyway, y'll are entitled to you opinion, and I'm sure this applies to me, too, but your colors are showing. :-)

Mdot21

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #92 on: November 13, 2018, 06:34:50 PM »
I'm amused by the Michigan over Notre Dame crowd.

Let's go to the tape. Head-to-head: ND had the win.

But Michigan has improved so much! Not ND, though--despite replacing their quarterback (the one who beat Michigan).

Common opponent: Northwestern: Michigan came from behind to win by three at Northwestern. Notre Dame never trailed, built a 14-point lead in the third quarter, and won by ten at Northwestern.

To be fair, Michigan has blown out a lot of teams, and has four wins over P5 teams with winning records, 7-3 Penn State having the best record of the bunch. Notre Dame also has four wins over P5 teams with winning records--and, of course, 9-1 Michigan is one of those.

Michigan does have the better stats, though. So there's that.

Anyway, y'll are entitled to you opinion, and I'm sure this applies to me, too, but your colors are showing. :-)
head to head should matter.
But Michigan is a way different team right now than they were back then. Karran Higdon was hurt early in the season, Patterson was still feeling things out and wasn't really comfortable in the offense or with his receivers. Patterson has really developed in the offense and they are doing more and more with him every week. The QB run wrinkles have really taken the offense to another level when they've used him on those. You saw none of those vs ND. The OL was a complete mess at the beginning of the year. Ed Warriner has flat out done remarkable things with this OL unit that I never thought possible. He really has been all that and then some. If I'm Harbaugh, I give the guy a life-time contract and let him do whatever the hell he wants.
Also: Josh Metellus was out on the first game on a questionable targeting call. As hard as I was on Metellus last year and even parts of this year- he has turned the corner. By far the best safety that Michigan has had in ages. And after seeing Brad Hawkins misjudge a ball he should've intercepted vs ND and then whiff on the angle and not be able to catch up to the Rutgers RB and give up an 80 yard TD run- think it's safe to say Metellus is a vastly underrated part of that defense. Without him that Michigan defense gets significantly worse.
Maybe the biggest X-factor and unknown though for Michigan is Tarik Black. The healthier he gets and the more up to speed he gets, the more dangerous it makes that Michigan passing attack. Nico Collins, Donovan Peoples Jones, Zach Gentry, and Tarik Black are some dudes man. I honestly can't remember seeing a more talented group of receiving options at Michigan ever. You have to go back to Braylon, Avant, and Breaston. And Avant was significantly slower and smaller than Nico, Tarik, and DPJ. Breaston was significantly smaller than all 3 and probably only faster than Nico Collins. And Zach Gentry is a more talented TE than Jake Butt. All 4 of those guys should be NFL draft picks one day.
If Shea and Gentry come back next year and Shea grows in that offense and Harbaugh decides to actually open up the offense- Michigan could have a filthy passing attack in 2019. One of my biggest gripes with the offense this year is they are just way too damn conservative.
As crazy as it sounds because of how terrible they were last year, I think Michigan has really underachieved on offense this year. That pass game should be way better than it is. Especially with Black virtually back to 100% now.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #93 on: November 13, 2018, 06:57:32 PM »
The H2H comparison is only said to be explicitly drawn into conversation (by the committee) when two teams are so close as to make an obvious comparison winner otherwise impossible.
Michigan beats ND in SOS, ranked wins, and opponent-adjusted and play-by-play advanced stats. Not all of those matter to the committee and that's good. But based on comments and ranking, the committee does appear to think ND and Michigan are on the same level right now. And one can surmise that H2H is breaking the tie. 
However: If ND loses, I would not be surprised if the committee would no longer see them as on the same level and therefore no longer get to the step to apply H2H. Michigan would just go above.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #94 on: November 13, 2018, 07:06:47 PM »
I do happen to think Michigan is better. Because of improvement, in part. But also because the first quarter was so flukey for this defense. And though ND can also argue improvement, they can't also say a reversion to the mean from the first matchup would favor them.
In any event, I pray for a rematch and would expect a multi-score win. But that's just fan emotions. 
The last post was more removed.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #95 on: November 13, 2018, 07:10:31 PM »
here's your not lazy ranking
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Michigan
4. Notre Dame
5. West Virginia
6. Georgia
7. Ohio State
8. Washington State
9. Texas
10. Oklahoma
compared to my lazy ranking
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Michigan
5. Georgia
6. Oklahoma
7. Washington State
8. West Virginia
9. Ohio State
10. UCF
same 9 teams, some a couple spots up or down
our biggest difference is the Sooners - 4 spots
your extensive research gives the Longhorns over the Knights as the difference
I guess time will tell.  This week Texas favored by 3 over ISU, UCF favored by 7.5 over Cincy
That's right. I'd argue a ranking can, at best, have signs of being lazy. But sometimes a poll could appear lazy but be well thought out. And when many polls are averaged, the odds of this may be higher. I don't disagree with OAM's idea of the symptoms of a lazy poll, but I do disagree that seeing those symptoms is to prove the disease.

SFBadger96

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #96 on: November 13, 2018, 07:35:03 PM »
ND is better, too, not least because it has upgraded its quarterback play.

Maybe we should all hope for a rematch. :-)

Anonymous Coward

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Re: Post Your Top 10
« Reply #97 on: November 13, 2018, 08:03:20 PM »
Michigan upgraded its QB play also. Shea wasn't only green in that game but also hurt. So we ran several key drives with McCaffery.
Still, I think it's worth separating what fans think from what the committee does. And there are signs that the committee is already weighing both teams on the same level, and H2H is the tiebreaker. And if ND loses, its fair to wonder if the committee will stop weighing them on equal levels and will therefore stop needing to consider that tiebreaker.

 

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