OPERATION UNTHINKABLE - QUICK SUCCESS
Was it really unrealistic?
The map illustrates the first phase of Operation Unthinkable—a Western Allied plan to attack the Red Army on July 1, 1945, in order to wrest Poland from Moscow's sphere of influence. Codenamed "Quick Success", the operation aimed to reach the Oder-Neisse line in the first stage and the Gdańsk–Bydgoszcz–Wrocław–Kłodzko line in the second stage. Intention was to inflict a decisive defeat on the Red Army by the autumn of 1945. Such a blow, it was assumed, would force Stalin to negotiate and amendments to Yalta accords would ensue.
The operation was to involve British, American, and Polish troops, as well as forces composed of defeated and captured Wehrmacht POWs, numbering between 100,000 and 700,000.
British planners counted on an anti-communist resistance movement in Soviet-occupied Poland—at the time, 20,000 partisans were still fighting in the forests, and the anti-communist underground numbered 200,000 people. They also anticipated a mutiny within the Polish People's Army (LWP). Following a wave of conscription in communist-held Polish territories, the force had grown to 200,000 men in ten divisions by 1945, though its political reliability was questionable. Although the LWP was largely commanded by Soviet officers, it was estimated in 1945 that only 60% of the soldiers in the 1st Polish Army and perhaps only 40% in the 2nd Polish Army were politically reliable enough for Moscow to count on them in combat. However, they were not stationed in the western part of Poland. They were implementing land reform and combating the anti-communist underground in East and Centre.
The operation's northern flank was to be secured by the Royal Navy. The port of Szczecin was to be captured early on, followed by further amphibious landings along the Polish coast as far east as Gdańsk. Soviet naval forces were weak and would have been unable to resist it.
Air superiority would have belonged unequivocally to the Allies. Their fighter force numbered nearly 7,000 aircraft—including the first jet-powered planes (the British Gloster Meteor F3 and the German Me 262), which the Soviets lacked.
The Allies would also have held the advantage in strategic bombers. The Soviets would have had no effective means to defend against the 2,500 American B-17s, B-29s, and B-24s, along with the British Lancasters, Halifaxes, and the latest Avro Lincolns. High-altitude bomber raids escorted by modern fighters was something the Soviets had never faced before. Allied strategic air power would certainly have severely disrupted Soviet logistics and lines of communication with their deep rear. Bombing missions launched from Iran and the Middle East could have reached Soviet oil fields and refineries, though they would have been costly. Loss rate of 5% of each mission was anticipated.
In 1945, the Red Air Force comprised 16,500 aircraft: 9,400 fighters and ground-attack aircraft, 2,400 light bombers, 1,000 long-range strategic bombers (rather ineffective), 1,100 naval aircraft (engaged primarily in mine-laying), and 300 National Air Defense (OPK) fighters. Moreover, the West supplied the Soviets with half of their aviation fuel, as well as the rubber, copper, aluminum, and metal alloys essential for aircraft production. In the short term - over a six-month period - the Soviets would have had no means to replace these supplies and maintain the production rate of 3,000 aircraft per month achieved by the war's end. While the Red Air Force was effective at the tactical level, Stalin initiated a new purge of its personnel as early as May.
On the ground, the advantage would have lain undoubtedly with the Soviets.
For offensive operations against the Red Army's ground forces, the Allies would have had approximately 50 divisions at their disposal: 20 armored, 25 infantry, and 5 airborne. An additional 11 divisions would be required for the occupation of Germany, and 25 for defensive operations and holding other sectors of the front where no offensive was planned. For instance, a Soviet counter-attack toward Salzburg in Austria was anticipated. Countering it would require 11 divisions.
The Polish contingent within the II Corps would likely number 228,000 soldiers. The unfavorable balance of forces could be mitigated by employing between 100,000 and 700,000 former Wehrmacht soldiers. Plans called for forming up to 10 divisions, though they would not be ready until autumn, and both their formation and deployment would be politically extremely risky, albeit probably inevitable.
Facing these forces on the Soviet side were 140 infantry divisions and the equivalent of 30 armored divisions. The Red Army's armored forces were organized into brigades and independent regiments: Tank Shock Brigades, Armored Brigades, Independent Heavy Tank Regiments and Independent Assault Gun Regiments. The Soviets would have held a 2:1 advantage in tanks and a 4:1 advantage in infantry. While the Red Army soldier’s toughness, tenacity, courage, and ability to endure hardship were well known and acknowledged, their infantry was considered inferior to Western infantry. When deployed abroad, they were prone to indiscipline due to a low morale resulting from the protracted war and staggering losses.
The climax of "QUICK SUCCESS" would have been an armored battle fought in Poland. The Soviets would have fielded a mix of heavy and light tanks supported by assigned infantry (fusilier - автоматчики) units. Their Tank Forces made up one-third of their entire force and consisted of 113 Tank Shock Brigades and 140 standard armored brigades. The latter included approximately 50 T-34 tanks each and infantry battalion of about 1,000 soldiers. Independent Heavy Tank Regiments were each equipped with 23 KV or JS heavy tanks, while Independent Assault Gun Regiments had SU-76 and SU-100 assault guns. Soviet doctrine called for deployment of tanks together with masses of infantry.
The Allies would have concentrated 20 armored divisions for this battle. These would have consisted mainly of Shermans armed with 76mm guns, alongside some 2,000 of the latest Fireflies and the newest American M-26 Pershings, comparable to the German Tiger.
Would a QUICK SUCCESS have forced Stalin to enter negotiations that overturned the Yalta agreements? Would he have retreated deep into Russia, as he did during the war against Hitler? In any event, had Stalin refused to yield, the Allies would have faced the second phase (Phase B, Map B) of Operation Unthinkable: TOTAL WAR.
